18 November 2024 Ken Wattret
Our forecasts have not changed materially in November’s update, but uncertainty over the outlook has risen markedly.
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13 November 2024
We look at the potential impact of the US election results from Latin America to Sub-Saharan Africa.
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07 November 2024 Eric Oak Chris Rogers
The toy industry has one of the most seasonal supply chains, raising the stakes for ensuring delivery of the right products in a narrow timeframe....
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06 November 2024 Eric Oak Chris Rogers
The return to office of President-elect Donald Trump brings the prospect of a renewed round of import tariffs to the US.
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23 October 2024 Michael Zdinak
American households are expected to spend close to $31 on average on Halloween candy this year, with spending rising to an all-time high of $4...
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15 October 2024 Ken Wattret
Policy stimulus supports continued economic expansion, although risks remain.
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10 October 2024 Chris Rogers
The 2024 storm season in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins have created additional supply chain diruptions
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19 September 2024 Ken Wattret
The US Federal Reserve started its long-awaited easing cycle with a bang.
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12 September 2024 Eric Oak Chris Rogers
Halloween supply chain activity in the US reached a record high in 2024, with spending leaning toward decorations.
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04 September 2024 Jessica Leyland Eric Oak Chris Rogers Andrew Birch
Logistics network disruptions highlight Turkey’s potential as a manufacturing hub for European, Middle Eastern, and eastern US markets.
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30 August 2024 Thea Fourie Ronel Oberholzer Ralf Wiegert Rafael Amiel Paula Diosquez-Rice Jamil Naayem Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch
We assess the risk of hard currency shortages in four emerging market countries: Egypt, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Argentina.
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19 August 2024 Michael Zdinak Chris Rogers
We expect solid wage gains and easing prices to encourage shoppers to shake off their inflation fatigue, resulting in growth in back-to-school...
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16 August 2024 Ken Wattret
We have revised up 2024's annual growth forecast, from 2.4% to 2.6%.
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01 August 2024 Eric Oak Chris Rogers
US customs authorities are tightening up the application of de minimis shipping rules, impacting apparel supply chains.
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25 July 2024 Eric Oak Chris Rogers
The Olympic and Paralympic Games Paris 2024 represent a chance to rekindle activity in sports equipment and apparel supply chains.
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23 July 2024 Eric Oak Chris Rogers
We use international trade, financial and purchasing manager survey data to identify key trends in the semiconductor sector.
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15 July 2024 Ken Wattret
Global growth rates are not forecast to reach the heights of prior expansions owing to a combination of headwinds.
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02 July 2024 Thea Fourie Ronel Oberholzer
We expect Kenya's economic growth to be 0.3 percentage points below our baseline in 2024 following devastating floods in May.
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25 June 2024 Deepa Kumar Chris Rogers
We see broad consensus to prioritize manufacturing initiatives and little to no change in India’s attraction for supply chain investments, although...
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18 June 2024 Ken Wattret
Global economic conditions remain resilient.
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12 June 2024 Harumi Taguchi
We explore why the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, what its next moves could be, and how this could impact Japan’s economy.
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07 June 2024 Eric Oak Chris Rogers
A petition from the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee shows the adaptive nature of supply chains and trade protections....
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06 June 2024 Rafael Amiel Paula Diosquez-Rice Nicolas Suarez
We do not anticipate Latin American Central Bank policy rates will move into stimulative territory over the short term, as inflation expectations...
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04 June 2024 Rafael Amiel Chris Rogers Carlos Caicedo
We explore the consequences of floods for Brazil's supply chain, including the disruption to logistics and the impact on key industries.
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29 May 2024 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar
India's policy focus will remain on strategic sectors regardless of the election outcome.
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28 May 2024 Timo Klein Shuchita Shukla Raj Badiani Diego Iscaro
We answer some of the most frequently asked questions about our monetary policy forecasts for the eurozone.
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23 May 2024 Jose Sevilla-Macip
Major policy shifts are likely in energy and US relations if Xóchitl Gálvez wins the presidency, while a Sheinbaum victory would like bring policy...
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20 May 2024 Hugo Foster Bibianna Norek
The Paris 2024 Olympic Games, which begin July 26, pose significant security risks including terrorism and cyberattacks.
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15 May 2024 Ken Wattret
Sticky services inflation rates remain an impediment to swift policy easing.
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13 May 2024 Hannah Cotillon
We analyze policy and supply and demand dynamics for selected critical minerals in Asia-Pacific at various stages of the value chain.
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06 May 2024 Todd C. Lee John Raines John Anton Amanda Eglinton
The impact of US tariffs on trade with China is likely to be minimal given the existing range of tariffs applied to Chinese steel.
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01 May 2024 Chris Rogers
The rapid growth of the first quarter is not expected to continue in the rest of 2024.
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30 April 2024 Ken Wattret
A region-wide conflict in the Middle East, although not our base case, would materially weaken global economic conditions.
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29 April 2024 Todd C. Lee
Mainland China’s COVID containment policy, property sector woes and rivalry with the US have increased uncertainty about its long-term economic...
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17 April 2024 Michael Zdinak Gordon Greer
US tax refunds are expected to rise in 2024, which is good news for retailers hoping the extra dollars will boost demand.
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15 April 2024 Ken Wattret
Pickup in growth momentum is vulnerable to geopolitical risks.
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31 January 2024 Natasha McSwiggan Michael Dall Lucas Casalino Laurence Allan Dijedon Imeri Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek Alex Kokcharov
We assess key dynamics shaping Europe’s operational and investment environment in 2024.
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12 October 2023 Chris Rogers
While seasonality appears to be returning to normal, we see evidence of a steady process of reshoring for Christmas decorations.
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20 September 2023 Ken Wattret
The near-term outlook for inflation has deteriorated as crude oil prices have risen.
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11 August 2023 Michael Zdinak Chris Rogers
Back to school shopping data is in. How does it stack up to last year?
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04 August 2023 Caroline Foshee Ben Herzon
Monthly US GDP has strong momentum heading into the third quarter.
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28 July 2023 Deepa Kumar Chris Rogers
India's rice restrictions come amid concerns around domestic price inflation resulting from food supply chain disruptions.
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10 July 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Labor data is going in the opposite direction from what would be required to see core price inflation decline sustainably to the Fed’s target....
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15 May 2023 Shuchita Shukla Dragana Ignjatovic Anja Heimann
Political will from existing and aspiring members will be more decisive than the Maastricht criteria in the eurozone accession timelines.
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05 May 2023 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May.
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27 April 2023 Todd C. Lee Ronel Oberholzer Rajiv Biswas Patrick Newport Diego Iscaro Anja Heimann
Tightening monetary conditions are driving a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024.
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06 April 2023 Alejandro DuranCarrete Ailsa Rosales
Brazil–China trade seminar generates multiple agreements to deepen bilateral business links
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15 March 2023 William Farmer
Resuming the issuance of PPAs and deprioritizing contract renegotiations aligns with the government’s aim to increase foreign direct investment....
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02 February 2023 Rob Marshall
Our case study underlines the danger that companies may be overstating the business risks associated with renewable energy investments in emerging...
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14 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Jose Sevilla-Macip Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
ESG-related scrutiny will significantly increase for projects in Latin America, especially for ESG-oriented lenders or investors with a focus...
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24 October 2022 Akshat Goel
Parents are expected to spend $3.2 billion on candy this Halloween — a record amount, which works out to about $25 per household.
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06 September 2022 Carla Selman
As a result of the Chilean referendum, a new constitutional process is likely to delay the implementation of President Boric’s agenda
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17 November 2021 Michael Dall
Commodity markets remain rattled, but price correction bodes well for inflation outlook
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24 August 2021 Thea Fourie
Employment recovers in sub-Saharan Africa, but not enough to make a dent in unemployment levels
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16 August 2021 Brian Lawson
Following strong US employment data for July, almost fifty issuers sold debt in just two days
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13 May 2021 Brian Lawson
Germany’s latest Green bond gained record demand and priced two basis points tighter than its conventional “twin”.
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11 March 2021 Sophie Cairns Sacha Baggili Hannah Cotillon Deepa Kumar David Li Bree Neff Asad Ali Anton Alifandi
China and India will leverage “vaccine diplomacy” as they roll out the Covid-19 vaccine
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20 January 2021 Michael Dall
Record LNG prices cause frantic trading in energy markets
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30 December 2020 Thomas McCartin
The pace of price growth does cool slightly but supply disruptions remain
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28 December 2020 Yating Xu Lei Yi David Li Angus Lam
our analysts look at the impact on economy, banking sector, and state enterprises due to China's bond defaults
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24 December 2020 Thomas McCartin
Supply chain problems support another sizeable weekly gain in many material prices
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21 December 2020 Alyssa Grzelak
As we head into 2021, our banking risk experts explore the biggest trends and challenges the emerging market banking sector will encounter.
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18 December 2020 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D.
The withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, high inflation and mounting debt will constrain growth in the first half of 2021; while the availability of...
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17 December 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash
Using our country risk ratings for a more accurate and actionable forecast of future cash flows
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17 December 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s market highlights included an upsized tap by Ukraine of its 2033 US dollar issue and Tesla placing USD5 billion of equity at prevailing...
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15 December 2020 Michael Dall
Per our MPI data, markets focus on the success of initial COVID-19 vaccine rollouts to send prices soaring
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14 December 2020 Rajiv Biswas Rahul Kapoor Hannah Cotillon Bree Neff
What will decoupling hold for China and Australia? Our research team looks at the trade implications for decoupling around the globe.
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11 December 2020 Jordan Anderson
TPLF target government forces with small arms, IED’s and occasional rockets and artillery following withdrawal from Urban centres in Tigray
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10 December 2020 Brian Lawson
New highlights include an impressive tap by the Dominican Republic of its recent 2032 issue and strong responses to the DoorDash and Airbnb IPOs....
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10 December 2020 Eva Renon Alisa Strobel
Ethiopia’s real GDP is anticipated to reach a historic low in 2020 amid increased significant downside risk factors including the armed conflict...
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09 December 2020 Mr. Daniel Kral, M.A.
European economies’ historic contractions in H1 2020 were followed by large, but partial, rebounds in Q3. A relatively milder contraction is...
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08 December 2020 Michael Dall
Our MPI shows that markets were boosted by strong mainland Chinese data and supply constraints
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07 December 2020 Johanna Marris
Cargo disruption from rail blockades is likely to continue in 2021 because of rising job insecurity and ongoing environmental and labor demands....
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04 December 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s calendar continues to indicate improving risk appetite, including five successful emerging market sales on 2 December.
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03 December 2020 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in December
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03 December 2020 Mr. William May
Chinese manufacturing and vaccine optimism boost commodity prices
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02 December 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ
Any final EU-UK trade arrangement is unlikely to replicate the frictionless trade that that currently exists between the two parties, and it...
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01 December 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly US GDP Index rose 0.7% in October
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30 November 2020 James Bohnaker
US consumers have found a way to spend money amid the chaos and retail has been a key beneficiary of a widespread shift in spending from services...
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24 November 2020 Ken Wattret
Persistent low inflation and inflation expectations, combined with a severe adverse shock, leave the eurozone comparatively vulnerable to deflation...
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23 November 2020 Deepa Kumar
How will China and India realign their external relations in light of a US and China decoupling?
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20 November 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlights included China issuing 5-year Euro debt at -0.15% and Saudi Aramco selling a heavily-oversubscribed USD8 billion package....
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20 November 2020 Hannah Cotillon Deepa Kumar David Li Anton Alifandi
On 15 November 15 Asian countries signed a trade agreement that will cover 2.2 billion consumers and combined GDP of USD26 trillion – nearly...
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19 November 2020 Venla Sipilä-Rosen Lilit Gevorgyan, B.A., M.A., M.Sc.
Our analysts look at what will influence the currencies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in the next few months.
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19 November 2020 Jordan Anderson Eva Renon
By January 2021, the TPLF will probably retreat to strongholds in northern Tigray, or, in a less likely scenario, retain control of territory...
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18 November 2020 Sara Johnson Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
The renewed rise in infection rates threatens growth and increases the urgency of additional stimulus
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18 November 2020 Mr. William May
Markets seize on positive news despite clear declines in vehicle and foot traffic in Europe and the US
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17 November 2020 Alisa Strobel
Private consumption is expected to decline by 4.3% in 2020 amid significant inflationary pressures and higher unemployment.
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12 November 2020
Equities, emerging market and high-yield debt have rallied sharply, with junk-bond spreads reaching record lows
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12 November 2020 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Johanna Marris Emily Crowley Alexia Ash
Is Mexico a viable option as supply chains shift due to a US and Chian decoupling?
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11 November 2020 Mr. William May
Rising COVID-19 cases hits commodity prices despite a weaker dollar
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09 November 2020 Ken Wattret
Given the resurgence of COVID-19 and related containment measures, a sizeable GDP contraction is on the cards in Q4 at least.
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05 November 2020 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November.
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05 November 2020 Brian Lawson
The planned IPO of Australia’s Dalrymple Bay coal terminal facility will seek AUD1 billion+, a major test of demand for coal-related equity.
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04 November 2020 Tom Jackson
Summary of battleground state employment picture
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03 November 2020 Mr. William May
Europe re-enters lockdowns prompting questions around materials demand, employment support and the likely cost of another lockdown on effected...
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03 November 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index rose 1.0% in September
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02 November 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The IMF and finance ministers from the G20 made some ostensibly landmark decisions affecting the ability of developing countries to access financing...
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30 October 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlight is the Ant Group IPO in Shanghai and Hong Kong, priced to raise a record USD34.4 billion.
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29 October 2020 Carla Selman
A new constitution for Chile is likely to increase the role of the state in the economy, particularly in the provision of basic services.
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28 October 2020 Mr. William May
Commodities gain during a to-and-fro week for US stimulus talks
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23 October 2020 Brian Lawson
The EU gained EUR233 billion of demand, growing the stock of Social Bonds by one-third, with its EUR17 billion 10 and 20-year debut SURE deal....
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21 October 2020 Michael Dall
Buyers return after China’s Golden Week holiday
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16 October 2020 Brian Lawson
Italy achieved negative yield on a three-year Italian debt auction, alongside record lows at other maturities.
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14 October 2020 Mr. William May
Markets lack direction during China’s Golden Week holiday
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13 October 2020 Andrew Birch
Several key challenges will ensure that the recovery of the European tourism sector will lag the overall economy.
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08 October 2020 Brian Lawson
The Bahamas is planning a bond sale despite sharply-rising debt burdens
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07 October 2020 Mr. William May
After two weeks of minor declines, growing downside pressure was released in a broad-based fall
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07 October 2020
What are the possible outcomes from a US-China decoupling? Our team sets forth the possible outcomes and the key questions to ask
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05 October 2020 Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
S&P Global projects that world real GDP will decline by 4.8% in 2020, a far worse outcome than the 1.7% contraction in 2009 at the height of...
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01 October 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index rose 0.6% in August
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01 October 2020 Jack A. Kennedy
Kuwait succession unlikely to be disputed, with energy and investment policies remaining consistent
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30 September 2020 Mr. William May
A second consecutive weekly fall, this week more broad-based, points to more cautious buying as the global economy heads deeper into unchartered...
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24 September 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping country risk in October.
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24 September 2020 Brian Lawson
Zambia is seeking bondholder consent to miss three interest payments starting this October.
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22 September 2020 Mr. William May
Astronomic lumber prices have corrected 25%, pulling our MPI lower despite broad gains elsewhere
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18 September 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s highlight was the arrangement of successful debut ESG deals by seven borrowers, alongside further airline-sector debt and equity...
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16 September 2020 Mr. William May
Some indices roll over after strong rallies, perhaps signalling a pause in the commodities rebound
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16 September 2020 Mateusz Mynarski Dr. Marie Lechler
Our experts utilize novel data collection to track economics recovery (among other things) via high frequency signals from news articles
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15 September 2020 Keerti Rajan John Raines, Ph.D. Laurence Allan, Ph.D. Anna Boyd
What does it mean for geopolitical security when three key global players - the US, China and European Union (EU) - turn inwards to focus on...
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11 September 2020 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
While emergency financing from the IMF to cope with the direct and ancillary effects of COVID-19 are agreed to, what about additional supports...
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10 September 2020 Brian Lawson
Record Asian share sales and multiple bond issuance successes indicate that risk appetite remains strong despite US tech-sector correction.
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09 September 2020 Mr. William May
An overheating equity market corrected sharply last week but all commodities, save oil, were unaffected, marching higher
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03 September 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) must select a shortlist of candidates to replace Ricardo Azevêdo. Who will be backed and what are their policy...
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02 September 2020 Mr. William May
Markets focus on the accommodative Fed rather than growing second waves of COVID-19
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01 September 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 1.9% in July.
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01 September 2020
Germany gave more details of its Green Bond debut in September: media reports suggest this will be a 10-year benchmark for up to EUR6 billion....
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31 August 2020 Angus Lam
New banking policies at play for both Mainland China and India
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27 August 2020 Brian Lawson
How have financial markets been affected by the combination of expansionary fiscal policy and quantitative easing and divergent sectoral performance?...
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27 August 2020 Brian Lawson
Media reports claim Oman raised USD2 billion in one-year bridge financing, while five hybrid deals this week indicated a strong “duration bid”....
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26 August 2020 Mr. William May John Mothersole
Chinese stimulus, a softening US dollar and easing COVID-19 containment measures give buyers the green light to keep going
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24 August 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
While it may be a little early to fully quantify the long-term economic impact of the pandemic, S&P Global estimates that by 2030 the level of...
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21 August 2020 Brian Lawson
The S+P 500 index reached an all-time high alongside recent IPOs displaying exceptionally strong performance.
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21 August 2020 Raj Badiani Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
new Brexit uncertainties are sounding on the risk radar, namely whether the 11-month transition period is sufficient to deliver an agreement...
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20 August 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Understand the risks shaping geopolitical stability in September from elections to trade summits and beyond.
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18 August 2020 Mr. William May
Bullish Chinese data early in the week was offset by rising COVID-19 restrictions, a breakdown in US stimulus negotiations and disappointing...
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14 August 2020 Brian Lawson
US investment grade supply during 2020 has reached USD1.336 trillion, beating the prior full-year record in under eight months.
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12 August 2020 Mr. William May
Volatility returns with commodities jumping
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07 August 2020 Brian Lawson
Ecuador’s bondholders overwhelmingly accepted its debt restructuring proposals while Argentina has agreed a marginally revised deal with key...
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05 August 2020 Mr. William May
Following a pause in the commodity price rebound last week, the MPI nudged higher, but sluggish demand growth will continue to be a drag
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03 August 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 5.0% in June.
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30 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite seasonally-quieter conditions, a large Australia syndication and a Hong Kong bank AT1 deal have reconfirmed long-duration demand.
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30 July 2020 Thomas McCartin
The 11-week stretch of commodity price increases ends amid a diplomatic spat
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27 July 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Understand the risks shaping geopolitical stability in August from elections to debt restructuring and beyond.
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24 July 2020 Justin Valentino Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Countries/territories for which our Country Risk scores have been changed significantly over the last quarter.
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23 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Both Argentina and Ecuador are facing problems to agree restructurings with their creditors, increasing the risk of “hard defaults”.
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23 July 2020 Karl Kuykendall
US Regional Economic Outlook: Northeast to take longest to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, South faces most acute downside risk given...
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22 July 2020 Mr. William May
Encouraging Chinese data and a softer dollar lifts commodity prices for an 11th consecutive week as policymakers weigh further stimulus
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22 July 2020 Mr. Daniel Kral, M.A.
Sweden has pursued a fundamentally different strategy in responding to the COVID-19 virus compared with other Western European countries. It...
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17 July 2020 Brian Lawson
A fourth emerging market borrower is now seeking hybrid debt, amidst multiple long and ultra-long dated issuance within the asset class.
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15 July 2020 Mr. William May
A tenth consecutive weekly gain in our Materials Price Index (MPI) leaves the MPI down just 9% in 2020 as capacity closures raise materials price...
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15 July 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Our global economics flash for July 2020. While the worst is probably behind us, the global recovery remains weak and subject to further downside...
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13 July 2020 Brian Lawson
In recent days, three emerging market banks sold debt, including an AT1 deal for Mexico’s Banorte, while China Bohai Bank raised equity.
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09 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Ecuador has agreed debt restructuring with around half its bondholders while Argentina has significantly narrowed the gap with its creditors
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08 July 2020 Mr. William May
A better than expected US jobs report and good June Purchasing Managers data offers cheer but growing COVID-19 case counts in the Americas presents...
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08 July 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 4.1% in May
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25 June 2020 Asad Ali
Government-military relations in Pakistan deteriorate over COVID-19, increasing likelihood of PM being replaced or ruling coalition collapsing...
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25 June 2020 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Dominican Republic election likely despite COVID-19-virus spread; tourism and transport and energy infrastructure new government key priorities...
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25 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Heavy US equity issuance, including a USD14.8 billion placement by T-Mobile US, took 2020 US share placement volumes to over USD100 billion.
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24 June 2020 Mr. William May
COVID-19 cases rose more rapidly in certain areas of the US, India and Brazil last week spooking financial markets, but commodity prices continued...
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23 June 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ
We had anticipated that the Bank of England would expand its bond-buying scheme by GBP100 billion (USD124 billion), but it was at the lower end...
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18 June 2020 Theo Acheampong, PhD
Investigations into AfDB president’s suspected misconduct indicates growing multilateral and bilateral creditor rivalry, and likely governance...
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18 June 2020 Brian Lawson
On 15 June, New Zealand syndicated NZD7 billion of 2024 debt, doubling its prior record in April: Belarus and Honduras also successfully sold...
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17 June 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ Jan Gerhard
UK’s plan not to prolong post-Brexit transition makes interim arrangements initially more likely than finalised EU deal
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17 June 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices continue to surge on improved manufacturing demand and investor interest
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16 June 2020 Brian Lawson
During the last week, two borrowers – Africa Finance Corp and Helios Towers – successfully reopened the market for sub-Saharan African debt
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16 June 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Even with the beginnings of a recovery in place, the carnage from this pandemic and the lockdowns can only be described as horrific.
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12 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Ten European sovereign issuers successfully sold debt this week after the ECB expanded its PEPP program by EUR600 billion.
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10 June 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices surged higher on supply side disruptions and optimism over demand
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09 June 2020 Richard Jackson Nathalie Wlodarczyk, Ph.D. Karim El Assir Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world – Scenarios for 2025
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04 June 2020 Braden Muhl
Few industries have avoided harm from the impact of COVID-19 and the resulting containment measures. Who is most impacted and who will grow in...
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04 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Hungary and Deutsche Bank completed successful Green Bond debuts this week, highlighting the ongoing long-term growth of ESG funding.
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03 June 2020 Mr. William May
Markets breathe a sigh of relief that President Trump's press conference did not contain even harsher actions against China
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01 June 2020 Ken Wattret
Following April’s additional liquidity provision, June’s policy announcement is likely to center on ramping up net asset purchases via the PEPP....
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01 June 2020 Karl Kuykendall
Our May US Regional forecast shows that every state will experience significant employment and GDP declines in the near term.
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29 May 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index plunged 11.3% in April
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29 May 2020 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman Alejandro DuranCarrete
Argentina failed to make a USD503-million payment of delayed interest on three bonds on the expiry of their grace periods, entering a technical...
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28 May 2020 Brian Lawson
European corporate high-grade supply in 2020 is 80% ahead of 2019 levels, while US bank issuance is over 40% higher.
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27 May 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices record another strong week on prospects for Chinese stimulus and phased re-openings in Europe, Japan and the US
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26 May 2020 Tom Jackson
Regional surveys of manufacturing activity showed signs of improvement in May after crashing to historic lows in April.
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22 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Argentina faces technical default on 22 May, Province of Buenos Aires triggered this on 14 May, and Digicel is also facing a Moody’s default...
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20 May 2020 Mr. William May
Economies reopening and supply-side issues drive another strong gain in commodities
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19 May 2020 Alexia Ash
A “bottom-up” approach is less volatile and more nuanced than a markets-led approach and results in the potential for investment opportunities...
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18 May 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Recovery in global economic output to pre-pandemic levels will take two to three years
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14 May 2020 Mr. William May
OPEC+ supply cuts and weaker US output lifts crude prices and the broader commodity complex
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14 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Grenada became the first IDA country to seek an agreed debt moratorium on its private-sector debt – but then met slated payments to avoid default...
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11 May 2020 Jeannine Cataldi
Construction in Americas, Middle East and Africa regions have been the hardest hit by issues related to the COVID-19 virus pandemic.
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08 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Alongside bond supply from Bahrain, Chile and a syndicated 15-year deal from Germany, this week has seen the completion of two perpetual capital...
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08 May 2020 Arlene Kish, M.A.
Canada's job market was devastated once again with a 1,993,800 nosedive in net employment, which was weaker than our expectations.
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08 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Primary equity activity has expanded including sizeable deals for Southwest Airlines, Reliance Industries and a substantial Chinese IPO.
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08 May 2020 Alexia Ash
Mining in Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru likely to face acute challenges in the wake of COVID-19
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06 May 2020 Mr. William May
Crude oil rises sharply, but markets are becoming nervous about a resumption in the US-China trade war
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06 May 2020 Gabrielle Ventura
The Lebanese government’s financial sector restructuring plan includes banking sector losses of at least 200% of forecast 2019 nominal GDP
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05 May 2020 Columb Strack Anton Alifandi
Growing piracy off Malay Peninsula likely to be exacerbated by economic effect of COVID-19-virus crisis
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01 May 2020 Brian Lawson
NAB has arranged an AUD3 billion underwritten share placement to offset COVID-19 impacts, setting a sector precedent for capital raising
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28 April 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP fell 5.1% in March 2020.
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24 April 2020 Brian Lawson
Italy gained record demand of over EUR110 billion for a EUR16 billion syndicated package, and Spain EUR97 billion for EUR15 billion of 10-year...
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23 April 2020 Mr. William May
Optimism remains in markets despite extensions to lockdowns
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20 April 2020 Tom Jackson
Regional surveys of manufacturing activity established new series lows in April, obliterating the previous lows set in 2009.
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17 April 2020 Kristyna Alexova Aleksandra Maguire
Findings from our EPIC report help supply chain professionals drive more informed decisions about how to best operate in unprecedented times
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16 April 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
What does recovery look like? Our economists provide their outlook
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16 April 2020 James Petretta
Analysis on the impact of COVID-19 on protest and riot risks globally
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16 April 2020 Brian Lawson
Latin American, Asian and junk-bond supply this week indicates improved bond market risk appetite, despite worsening debt sustainability
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15 April 2020 Mr. William May
Volatility falls and prices rise as markets begin to calm
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09 April 2020 Dr. Marie Lechler
Our COVID–19 Country Vulnerability Index ranks countries’ capacity to deal with new outbreaks as well as those expected in the coming weeks and...
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08 April 2020 Alyssa Grzelak
In total, across S&P Global’s 52 rated banking sectors, the outlook on our rating is Negative for 41 economies, an increase of 32 since the beginning...
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08 April 2020 Dr. Kari Pries, Ph.D. Cristina Arbelaez
Severe US recession to curtail remittances to Central American countries, worsening external balances and domestic recession risks
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08 April 2020 William May
Commodities plunged further, faster in another broad-based move lower
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06 April 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
S&P Global looks ahead to the events shaping country risk in April 2020.
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01 April 2020 Alisa Strobel
Ethiopia’s Prime Minster calls for emergency budgetary support and debt relief for African countries for which COVID-19 will pose a significant...
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01 April 2020 Thomas McCartin
Collapsing demand continues to push commodity prices lower.
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01 April 2020 Karl Kuykendall
No state will be immune from employment and GDP declines this year given the sudden and deep economic shocks associated with the necessary containment...
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30 March 2020 Brian Lawson
While investment grade borrowers are rushing in record volume to capture liquidity, emerging market borrowers rely ever more on IMF support
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30 March 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Ph.D.
Most economies won’t return to pre-pandemic levels of output for 2-3 years
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26 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite IMF/IBRD moves to ease official debt burdens, Ecuador has moved towards debt default: Argentina and African states also seeking relief...
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25 March 2020 William May
Manufacturing shuts down in Europe and the US as COVID-19 takes a hold
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20 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite large-scale fiscal and monetary intervention including major QE programs, investors are continuing the flight to cash.
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19 March 2020 William May
Energy prices tank as Western Europe begins social isolation in earnest
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18 March 2020 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Disruptions to supply chains, demand, international trade flows, and travel, along with lockdowns and collapsing stock prices, resulting from...
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16 March 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Sunday’s aggressive rate cut could be the “final” adjustment to the federal funds rate, as there is little appetite now within the Federal Reserve...
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16 March 2020 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Saharan Africa (SSA) region is highly susceptible to ancillary effects from the COVID-19 virus outbreak
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13 March 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s market developments are dominated by the breakdown of OPEC production discipline and the global expansion of COVID-19.
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13 March 2020 Shane Norton Scott Hazelton
S&P Global study shows US off highway equipment industry directly supports 480,000 jobs and 2.8 million total jobs, with 35 states at more than...
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11 March 2020 William May
Commodities rose slightly last week as the US Federal Reserve cut rates to offset the effects of the spreading COVID-19 outbreak
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11 March 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ken Wattret Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Ph.D. Chris Williamson
Expect a sharp reduction in near-term growth, followed by a slow recovery
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06 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite a mid-week rush of corporate bond supply, S&P Global views COVID-19 to have lasting and sizeable adverse potential market impacts
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04 March 2020 William May
Intensifying fears of the global impact of COVID-19 sparked a major sell-off in markets, which hit commodity prices once again last week
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03 March 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Analysis from our Senior Economist Ken Matheny on today’s Federal Reserve rate cut
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03 March 2020
We recorded 78% more public mass shootings in 2019 than the preceding five-year average.
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27 February 2020 Gabrielle Ventura
On the precipice of crisis: What’s next for the Lebanese banking sector?
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14 February 2020 Brian Lawson
Record Italy syndication and multiple hybrid deals highlight “risk-on” investor appetite.
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13 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
2020 economic outlook for Malaysia clouded by coronavirus economic impact
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13 February 2020 Ludovico Carlino Firas Modad
Yemen-based Houthi movement has mounted 462 attacks against targets inside Saudi territory since 2015
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12 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
The Asia-Pacific commercial aviation industry is being hit by a massive economic shockwave from the escalating novel coronavirus crisis sweeping...
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12 February 2020 William May
Chinese travel restrictions are disrupting manufacturing, driving expectations of a demand shock
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12 February 2020
Djibouti's weakening fiscal position indicates tax demands targeting logistics and telecoms, cancellation of European renewable energy contracts...
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07 February 2020 Brian Lawson
An active European block-deal calendar and India’s privatization program for 2020/21
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07 February 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s debt highlights were Poland capturing five-year funding at negative yields and Ghana raising 40-year bonds
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05 February 2020 William May
The disruptive effects of the spreading coronavirus on the Chinese economy sends commodity prices down hard
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03 February 2020 Columb Strack
Islamic State activity in Iraq and Syria unaffected by Baghdadi's death, Turkish incursion, or US partial-withdrawal
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03 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
Worries about the spread of Coronavirus leads to Shanghai Stock Exchange Index falling 8.2% by mid-morning on 3 February, with the Shenzhen Composite...
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30 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Within improving bond markets, this week’s market highlight was Greece’s 15-year syndicated sale
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30 January 2020
Concerns around the coronavirus are spreading. Our experts look at the economic and security impacts
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30 January 2020 Jack A. Kennedy
Despite government critic's protest call for anniversary of 2011 revolution, significant mobilisation in Egyptian cities unlikely
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30 January 2020 William May
Commodity markets, already slow over Lunar New Year, are being hit by worry over the impact of the coronavirus on Chinese demand
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29 January 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December 2019.
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28 January 2020 Blanka Kolenikova
Czech president’s decision not to attend summit in China unlikely to alter foreign relations or affect investments
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24 January 2020 Ludovico Carlino
Failure by Prime Minister-designate to win confidence vote increases likelihood of new elections in Tunisia
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24 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Five sizeable emerging markets deals were sold successfully on 21 January, with Pemex particularly-successful.
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23 January 2020 Alisa Strobel
Zimbabwe has entered into a currency swap deal with China, however, the deal is unlikely to solve Zimbabwe's foreign-exchange crisis and suggests...
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23 January 2020 Rajiv Biswas
The economic consequences of the coronavirus could be extremely concerning for the Asia-Pacific region
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22 January 2020 Deepa Kumar
Disputes between India's central and state governments probably to increase given disagreement over citizenship law, taxation
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22 January 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D. Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Our examines the impact of a longer than expected pause in the production of Boeing’s 737 MAX
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22 January 2020
Parliamentary debates over labour liberalisation bill likely to fuel periodic, large-scale protests in Indonesia’s major industrial cities
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22 January 2020 William May
Commodities powered higher last week on Asian restocking demand and a clearer trade outlook
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17 January 2020 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
Iran-US conflict to disrupt Brazil-Iran trade, increase Venezuela sanctions risks, and potentially undermine Argentina’s relationship with IMF...
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16 January 2020 William Farmer
Al-Shabaab assault on airfield indicates broadening of target set to include military installations in Kenya and Somalia
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16 January 2020 Brian Lawson
After record Euro-issuance last week, markets remain highly-active with six sovereign syndicated bond deals: Saudi Aramco grew its IPO 15%
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15 January 2020 Carlos Caicedo
Brazil’s fiscal reform likely to lose momentum in 2020 given president’s lack of engagement with Congress
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14 January 2020 John Mothersole John Anton
What will the market look like in 2020 for metals?
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13 January 2020 Steven Frable
Economic studies ascribe a range of effects (positive and negative) to higher minimum wages. We take a close look as 26 states make adjustments....
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10 January 2020 Daniel Kral
The timing and nature of the decision are highly unusual, while the reasoning is not entirely clear.
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09 January 2020 Brian Lawson
A record USD3 billion sale by Israel along with successful sovereign debt sales by Slovenia, Ireland and Portugal.
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08 January 2020 William May
European gas prices plummet on pipeline deal, before US-Iran tensions boil over at the week's end
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08 January 2020 Tom Jackson
A trend of weaker population growth overall and a decline in natural population increase has negative implications for economic growth at both...
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07 January 2020 Asad Ali
Singapore's election likely in March 2020, followed by ruling party leadership transition, but policy continuity almost certain
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06 January 2020 Harumi Taguchi, M.A.
Stimulus package including supplemental budget likely to mitigate downside risks, boost support for Abe administration in Japan
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02 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Recent data shows Euro-denominated debt issuance at near-record levels, but IPO deal numbers fell roughly one-fifth in 2019.
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02 January 2020 Langelihle Malimela Ege Seckin Deepa Kumar Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
How will several political developments in selected emerging markets impact on capital flows such as private investment, bank lending, and trade....
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02 January 2020 William May
The six-week rally slowed last week as markets wait for direction in 2020
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31 December 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November
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24 December 2019 William May
Less uncertainty on trade supports rebounding commodity prices
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24 December 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Kenyan MSMEs to benefit from reduced taxation in 2020 but capital constraints to limit private-sector performance
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23 December 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Ethiopia to finalize foreign investment framework for aviation, energy, and telecommunications, but banking excluded
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20 December 2019 David Li
Large-scale but peaceful protests likely in 2020 across Thailand because of opposition-candidate disqualification and economic slowdown
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19 December 2019 Petya Barzilska John Raines, Ph.D. David Li Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
As the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body (AB) ceases to function, around 88 trade disputes are very likely to remain unresolved....
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18 December 2019 William May
The US-China 'phase one’ trade deal' reduces tensions and improves the mood in markets
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17 December 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
What's coming in 2020? Global growth will expand at a rate of 2.5 percent in 2020 before edging up to 2.7% in 2021 and 2022.
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11 December 2019 William May
More positive data points help to propel prices to a third week of gains
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05 December 2019 Brian Lawson
In the first week after Thanksgiving, two borrowers raised perpetual debt and several others obtained longer-dated liabilities.
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04 December 2019 William May
Better news on manufacturing is providing some support for commodities.
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03 December 2019 Brian Lawson
ICMA’s AMIC conference on 27 November considered the EU’s efforts to establish an “Ecolabel” for environmentally-friendly investment vehicles. ...
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27 November 2019 William May
Commodity prices finally join other asset classes in increasing
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27 November 2019 Brian Lawson
This week’s clear highlight is China’s return to the dollar bond market with a substantially-oversubscribed four-tranche issue.
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27 November 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in October
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21 November 2019 William Farmer
New data protection law increases regulatory burden in Kenya's mobile money lending sector; more regulation likely
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21 November 2019 David Deull
After drying out in 2018, turkey prices are set to soak up a little more gravy this Thanksgiving
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20 November 2019 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri
Western Balkan "mini-Schengen" initiative has potential to boost trade, but will be limited to agriculture and tourism
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20 November 2019 William May
Despite positive wording coming from US-China trade talks commodity prices fell again last week
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19 November 2019 Arthur Dhont
Colombian government likely to struggle to implement economic policies in 2020 because of social and legislative opposition
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19 November 2019 Brian Lawson
Sweden’s central bank has followed the recent example set by Norway’s state pension fund in divesting assets deemed to have a high carbon footprint...
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19 November 2019 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Over the past decade strong economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa was accompanied by resurgent commodity prices and growing demands for infrastructure...
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15 November 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Dispute over Taranto steelworks increases likelihood of nationalization but does not represent shift in Italy's industrial policy
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15 November 2019 Brian Lawson
Since late August, the negative-yielding debt stock fell USD5 trillion to USD12 trillion with France’s 10 year OAT now giving a positive yield...
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13 November 2019 James Bohnaker
Retailers have good reason to be optimistic about the upcoming holiday shopping season, but not without a hint of caution
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13 November 2019 William May
Optimism that tariffs might be selectively reduced lifted commodity prices mid-week before falling flat
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13 November 2019
Opposition protests to escalate before Djibouti’s 2020-21 elections, with presidential succession and boundary disputes being notable triggers...
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13 November 2019 Diego Iscaro
Greece has unveiled an asset protection scheme aimed at helping banks to lower their non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, which is the highest in...
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08 November 2019 Brian Lawson
China raised 12- and 20-year funding in its first Euro-deal since 2004. Brazil sold 10-and 31-year dollar debt at its second-lowest cost to date....
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06 November 2019 Rajiv Biswas
Rajiv Biswas, our Asia Pacific Chief Economist, provides his comments on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership deal which will create...
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