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Customer LoginsA world ordered for decades by globalization and geoeconomics has rapidly become a world oriented around geopolitics.
Accumulating shocks like the COVID-19 virus pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict are proving pervasive and persistent, profoundly reorganizing global structures and relationships.
2023 is likely to be a year out of equilibrium. We see five organizing themes weighted in: the unsettled global security environment, energy security and the energy transition ahead, precarious supply chains, reshuffling labor markets and economic dissonance.
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The tests ahead are interconnected and with vast commercial impact. As governments, civil society and multilateral institutions adapt to what appears to be a new era of uncertainty and instability, so too will businesses and markets navigate sanctions, increased protectionism, government interventions, alternative payment systems and reputational risk.
As a world rebalancing takes shape.
2023 Risk Outlook
Global security unsettled
A number of unresolved conflicts and competitions will be sources of risk in 2023, filtering into the global economic outlook.
Energy trade-offs
With energy security back atop the agenda following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, countries will be balancing 2023 fiscal priorities against a new impetus to accelerate their energy transitions.
Precarious supply chains
An expected easing in supply chain disruptions in the first half of 2023 remains vulnerable to labor and resource shortages including critical technologies and critical minerals.
Reshuffling labor markets
Labor markets are in transition as demand overruns supply, tilting leverage towards workers across major markets.
Economic dissonance
The risk environment will continue to underpin the economic outlook for 2023. Recessions appear likely in Europe and North America, while Asia Pacific (APAC) and other emerging markets are likely to skirt the recession.
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