Over the medium to long-term, we expect the geopolitical landscape and climate goals to align. In the year ahead, energy security will remain at the top of the agenda, leaving countries to balance pressing resource priorities (food and energy) with their energy transition ambitions.
As countries juggle their fiscal demands and the existential climate threat, not all will be able to invest simultaneously. Instead, we expect a widening gap in the year(s) ahead between those that can accelerate energy transitions and those less well-positioned. Trade-offs will be bound up in resourcing questions including around climate finance, climate justice and critical minerals – copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel – needed to electrify the global vehicle fleet and diversify our energy sources across wind, solar, and hydropower technologies. As the demand for oil defined geopolitics in the 20th century, the scramble to secure minerals critical for the energy transition will likely shape geopolitics in the 21st century.
