We see the auto market's underlying weakness continuing through 2025 and constraining global demand growth to 1%-3% in 2024 and 2%-4% in 2025. Ratings should remain relatively resilient in 2024 and 2025 for OEMs where we anticipate credit metrics will absorb a weak recovery of volumes and less supportive pricing conditions that will affect the volume segment more than the market's premium segment. The picture is more mixed for auto supplier ratings. Rated suppliers are extremely diversified in terms of product offering (from extensive software solution to typically undiversified hardware skewed products mix) or market positioning (exposure to OEMs versus aftermarkets). Suppliers' margins and free cash flow will continue to improve as raw material and freight inflation remain more moderate, volumes improve, and less supply chain uncertainty decreases operating volatility at OEM customers.
S&P Global Ratings
Analytical Leader I, Credit Analysis
Senior Director, Sector Lead - Autos, Business & Technology Services