Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
Global Financing Conditions: Issuance Growth Could Slow In 2026 As Strains Persist
Global economic growth and bond issuance remained resilient in 2025 through bouts of heightened market risk, and we expect this to continue in 2026, though issuance growth could slow to 4.8%.
A healthy refinancing pipeline and accelerating M&A activity should support corporate (including financial services) issuance growth.
A multiyear AI and data center investment phase has started, which will likely continue to boost issuance by the high-tech sector, though the precise timing and extent of future debt issuance are far from certain.
As we enter the latter phase of this credit cycle, we maintain the possibility for issuance to decline in our downside scenario, where economic growth slows, geopolitical risks finally shake market confidence, or China's issuance growth slows amid efforts to reduce certain debt.
This Week In Credit
Positive Outlook Changes Remain Elevated
There were three upgrades last week, spread across three sectors, including one new rising star--Vertiv Group Corp--bringing the year-to-date total to four. Meanwhile, positive outlooks and CreditWatch placements outnumbered negative ones for the fifth consecutive week, implying that upgrades could increase.
There were five downgrades last week, three of which were to issuers in the 'BBB' categories, including the second fallen angel of 2026--Raizen S.A.--and a new potential fallen angel--Stellantis N.V.
There were two defaults last week, bringing the year-to-date total as of Feb. 12 to 15, ahead of the 11 defaults recorded at this point in 2025. The public default was to cyber security software vendor Redstone Buyer LLC, due to distressed exchange.
This Month In Credit
Signs Of Deterioration
Downgrades outnumbered upgrades as monthly speculative-grade downgrades increased to their highest level since June 2025, driven by issuers rated 'B' or below, accounting for 60% of December’s downgrades.
Pressure remains at the lower end as negative bias for issuers rated 'B-' and below increased by 1.3 percentage points last month, its largest rise since May 2025, suggesting the number of downgrades among lower-rated entities could remain elevated.
In a more positive sign, aggregate net bias improved to its strongest level since April, primarily driven by a third consecutive monthly increase in positive bias to its best level since March 2025.
Structured finance: Following an increase in corporate downgrades to 'CCC+' or below, the U.S. broadly syndicated loan CLOs 'CCC' exposure increased in December to 5.8%. Meanwhile, European exposure to obligors rated 'CCC' also increased, but to a lesser extent.
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