There is a consensus among economists that central banks’ policy rates have achieved their goal to tame post-Covid inflation in most countries, and they will be gradually decreased, from 2024 onwards. But what would be the potential impact if the easing cycle in each country was delayed by a quarter or more? The radar plot below shows the impact of a scenario where the start of...
READRisk analytics can be powerful, but depend on the quality of data and the underlying model. How can we be certain that the results are valid? Arsene Lui, associate director for quantitative modeling, joins host Eric Hanselman to discuss the challenges of quantifying uncertainty - particularly important in these turbulent economic times. Credit risks are particularly complicated...
READIn the past few years, macroeconomic factors have dominated the news headlines. This includes inflation, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, geopolitics and, lately, climate change and natural gas disruptions in Europe. How can we find an objective metric to zero in on the themes that matter most from a credit risk perspective and track the importance of these themes ov...
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