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U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance Sector View 2025: Grappling With Natural Catastrophes And Rising Claims Costs

--Personal auto underwriting profits to normalize as insurers pivot to policies-in-force growth with flat to lower rate increases. --Significant wildfire losses in the first two weeks could create earnings pressure later, especially if 2025 proves to be above average for natural catastrophes. --Margin compression in commercial lines as pricing eases, but insurers remain disciplined in risk selections and exposure management. --Persistent social inflation pressure leading to higher cost of claims and cast uncertainties on reserves. --Commercial auto, excess casualty, and professional liability remain vulnerable to adverse reserve development. --We expect industry capitalization to remain robust with ample loss-absorbing capacity attributed to stable underwriting margin and strong investment income.

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