S&P Global Ratings expects 2024's slow economic growth will persist into 2025 as the lagging effect of high interest rates works through the economy and growth will begin to accelerate in the latter half of 2025. Elevated unemployment and a weak economy likely will keep inflation low, setting the stage for further rate cuts in 2025. We believe that the Bank of Canada policy rate could reach 2.25% by year-end 2025, down from 5.00% in April 2024, and GDP growth will accelerate to 1.7% in 2025. We expect 2025 profitability will be neutral to slightly more favorable than in 2024, reflecting flat provisions, higher loan growth adding to revenues, and moderating expense growth. We do not expect any material changes in Canada's regulation or supervision. S&P Global Ratings views macroeconomic uncertainties around trade tariffs as a key source of risks to the Canadian banks, which could significantly slow economic growth and hurt banks’ operating performance.