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Global Banks Midyear Outlook 2024: Searching For Calmer Waters

Our outlook for global banks remains steady. As of June 30, 2024, about 75% of bank rating outlooks were stable. This resilience is largely due to solid capitalization, improved profitability, and still sound asset quality. That said, the slow economic growth expected in the second half of the year--while rates remain elevated--presents headwinds for business volumes, asset quality, and financing conditions. In addition, elections (more than 70 in about 40 countries in 2024), and the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars bring spillover risks, including market volatility. Positively, most banks' earnings continue to benefit from high interest rates and limited credit losses.

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