The recent attack by Iran on Israel represents a dangerous expansion of the Israel–Hamas war and raises the risk of a sharp escalation of the conflict. The signaling and coordination that minimized harm, prevented an immediate full-scale regional conflict. While last weekend's events signal a significant increase in geopolitical risk, the central narrative of our base-case scenario remains broadly unchanged including our baseline macroeconomic assumptions for the major economies, according to the recently published report titled "Global Credit Conditions Update April 2024: Geopolitical Risks Rise On Iran-Israel Conflict Expansion Despite Immediate Reprieve". Nevertheless, our expectations will be contingent on the nature and magnitude of the Israeli response over the coming days.