We expect French banks’ domestic net interest income to rebound in 2024, becoming noticeable by mid-year. Banks’ liabilities have repriced faster than they've been able to reprice assets, namely fixed-rate mortgages, so benefits from higher interest rates have come with a time lag. We forecast credit growth at about 3% this year, above the eurozone average. But domestic lending growth has been slowing across all asset classes. We do not expect deposit repricing to materially affect net interest margins. The move from non-interest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits will continue, but decelerate, also because Livret A remuneration is fixed at 3% until early 2025. Business and geographical diversification is still a factor for banks' revenue performance. Cost efficiency remains a weakness for French banks compared with European peers, notably due to still-dense branch networks. Banks also face digitization and efficiency challenges.
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