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Interest-cover risks are growing for vulnerable corporate credit

The 40-year uptrend in interest cover ratios for U.S. nonfinancial corporates is likely over. Investment grade and stronger speculative-grade entities are not likely to see cover ratios become challenging, but the risks are much greater for 'B' rated credits where median EBIT interest cover is expected to fall to one this year. Interest coverage rose historically during a sustained period of rising profit margins and falling interest rates, boosted by factors linked to deepening globalization. These drivers are likely reversing and structurally lower levels of interest cover will raise its importance a credit risk factor. More broadly, the end of financial repression, defined as interest rates being held below the inflation rate, may bring risks from unsustainable capital structures to a head.

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