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U.K. Nonconforming RMBS: Looking Beyond Headline Arrears

Total arrears in S&P Global Ratings' U.K. nonconforming RMBS index stood at 10.16% at the end of Q2 2022, the lowest level since we began producing the index. Current cost of living pressures could soon cause arrears to rise. Borrowers with variable-rate loans could see additional stress due to the accompanying rise in mortgage rates and higher mortgage payments. In this article, we look beyond headline arrears figures to alternative metrics that we will monitor during the cost of living crisis. We believe that these metrics could provide early signals of future deterioration in RMBS transaction performance.

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