In our recently published Emerging Markets (EM) economic outlook report, Testing Times Ahead, we pointed out that most major EM economies are back at their pre-pandemic level of GDP, and in some cases, meaningfully above that level. Although an important milestone to acknowledge, we are tempted not to celebrate yet. Why? Because comparing recovery to the previous cycle peak can be deceiving. A better comparison would be of the overall recovery to the pre-pandemic trend path (or, alternatively, to the pre-pandemic forecast path). So, based on “recovery to trend”, which countries in our EMs are recovery laggards?
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