With heightened geopolitical tensions adding to already-heavy price pressures and supply constraints, and the Federal Reserve beginning to battle nagging inflation with what promises to be an aggressive cycle of monetary tightening, borrowers in North America may soon see the run of remarkably favorable financing conditions come to an end. While North America is comparatively insulated from the direct effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. and Canadian economies—and the borrowers that operate in them—aren’t immune to the fallout. S&P Global Economics now believes that the effects related to the Russia-Ukraine crisis will shave 70 basis points (bps) from U.S. GDP growth this year, with the economy now set to expand 3.2%. The prospects of steadily rising interest rates and persistent inflation are the main drivers of this assessment, with an expected recession in Russia playing only a small part. All told, downside risks are growing, and we now see a moderate chance of recessio