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Economic Research: Moving The Russia-Ukraine Scenario Needle: European Output At Risk

Current scenarios around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, even severe ones, that focus on the usual three transmission channels typically fail to generate a meaningful impact on European output. We find this encouraging, as it shows the region's macroeconomic resilience. A needle-moving scenario would require an escalation of the conflict, which, thankfully, remains a tail risk at this juncture.

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