Key Takeaways
- In March 2025, U.S. auto loan ABS performance continued to reflect normal seasonal trends, showing improvement month over month for most metrics in both the prime and subprime segments.
- For the third month in a row, prime auto loan recoveries and delinquencies improved. Prime annualized losses remained relatively flat at 69 basis points, while recoveries increased to 61.32% in March from 55.83% in February. Additionally, 60-plus-day delinquencies declined slightly, reflecting the lowest level of delinquencies we have observed over the past year. On a year-over-year basis, prime losses rose slightly, 60-plus-day delinquencies remained stable, and recoveries improved from last year.
- Subprime auto loan annualized losses decreased to 7.98% for the month from 8.71% due to higher recoveries in March. Sixty-plus-day delinquencies continued to decline in March but remained elevated compared to one year earlier. Losses remained higher than last year, due in part to recoveries declining from March 2024.
- Prime static pool performance is showing deterioration for the 2023 vintage and the first two quarters of 2024, with cumulative net losses trending higher than earlier vintages going back to 2016, but lenders took various steps to improve performance. The subprime sector's 2023 and quarterly 2024 vintages are reporting lower cumulative net losses than 2022's near-record-high levels. However, 60-plus-day delinquencies and cumulative recovery rates remain weaker than normal.
- Our April U.S. surveillance reviews resulted in 11 upgrades, no downgrades, and 66 affirmations. Of the 17 U.S. transactions reviewed, we increased our expected cumulative net loss levels for 14 transactions, decreased it for one, and maintained it for two. We also reviewed two Canadian transactions. We currently have 10 subprime subordinated classes on CreditWatch negative.
Tables 1 and 2 show the historical monthly performance of prime and subprime U.S. auto loan ABS for the past 14 months, respectively, while charts 1 and 2 illustrate performance from March 2011 through March 2025.
For the full dataset, see our extended tables: Click here.
Charts 5–10 provide vintage static pool performance for both sectors for 2008 and 2016 through Q3 2024. In this month's tracker, we've included the vintage cumulative net loss (CNL) charts for the prime auto ABS issuers. (We had included the subprime issuers' vintage CNL charts in "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance," published Feb. 23, 2025.)
Table 1
Prime 12-month summary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prime composite | ||||||||||||||||
Month-year | Outstanding amount ($) | Annualized losses (%) | Recovery rate (%) | 60+ day DQ (%) | 30+ day DQ (%) | U.S. unemployment rate | U.S. CPI* | |||||||||
Mar-25 | 99,383,772,858.98 | 0.69 | 61.32 | 0.51 | 1.78 | 4.20 | 2.40 | |||||||||
Feb-25 | 103,964,604,410.40 | 0.68 | 55.83 | 0.55 | 1.73 | 4.10 | 2.80 | |||||||||
Jan-25 | 104,524,614,318.13 | 0.76 | 51.31 | 0.60 | 1.88 | 4.00 | 3.00 | |||||||||
Dec-24 | 99,744,616,673.75 | 0.80 | 49.85 | 0.62 | 2.04 | 4.10 | 2.90 | |||||||||
Nov-24 | 100,698,946,789.98 | 0.74 | 52.40 | 0.58 | 1.89 | 4.20 | 2.70 | |||||||||
Oct-24 | 101,938,987,228.87 | 0.76 | 54.95 | 0.55 | 1.86 | 4.10 | 2.60 | |||||||||
Sep-24 | 98,038,334,330.66 | 0.74 | 51.30 | 0.60 | 1.87 | 4.10 | 2.40 | |||||||||
Aug-24 | 97,047,258,206.81 | 0.79 | 66.54 | 0.62 | 1.91 | 4.20 | 2.50 | |||||||||
Jul-24 | 96,318,185,361.02 | 0.75 | 53.92 | 0.61 | 1.95 | 4.20 | 2.90 | |||||||||
Jun-24 | 94,855,539,660.21 | 0.64 | 55.13 | 0.58 | 1.81 | 4.10 | 3.00 | |||||||||
May-24 | 93,258,053,085.53 | 0.55 | 63.54 | 0.54 | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.30 | |||||||||
Apr-24 | 92,976,031,616.53 | 0.56 | 63.54 | 0.54 | 1.67 | 3.90 | 3.40 | |||||||||
Mar-24 | 88,885,665,508.80 | 0.62 | 59.88 | 0.51 | 1.68 | 3.90 | 3.50 | |||||||||
Feb-24 | 92,639,277,629.37 | 0.67 | 51.94 | 0.54 | 1.68 | 3.90 | 3.20 | |||||||||
*U.S. CPI as reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI--Consumer price index. DQ--Delinquency. |
Table 2
Subprime 12-month summary | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subprime composite | ||||||||||||
Month-year | Outstanding amount ($) | Annualized losses (%) | Recovery rate (%) | 60+ day DQ (%) | 30+ day DQ (%) | |||||||
Mar-25 | 58,440,355,113.48 | 7.98 | 43.59 | 5.59 | 14.66 | |||||||
Feb-25 | 61,048,860,859.98 | 8.71 | 36.61 | 5.84 | 15.15 | |||||||
Jan-25 | 62,140,654,547.44 | 9.44 | 33.30 | 6.22 | 16.15 | |||||||
Dec-24 | 60,820,496,895.26 | 9.22 | 30.41 | 6.40 | 17.02 | |||||||
Nov-24 | 58,860,047,149.06 | 9.14 | 35.08 | 6.01 | 15.91 | |||||||
Oct-24 | 58,228,571,956.90 | 9.50 | 36.37 | 5.87 | 15.79 | |||||||
Sep-24 | 59,484,708,527.46 | 8.61 | 35.43 | 5.94 | 15.78 | |||||||
Aug-24 | 56,964,349,388.28 | 9.64 | 36.60 | 5.90 | 15.59 | |||||||
Jul-24 | 55,652,368,521.21 | 8.82 | 34.97 | 5.98 | 16.07 | |||||||
Jun-24 | 54,367,389,223.75 | 7.95 | 36.52 | 5.82 | 15.55 | |||||||
May-24 | 54,774,744,733.07 | 7.23 | 44.61 | 5.40 | 14.93 | |||||||
Apr-24 | 53,964,137,838.80 | 7.30 | 44.24 | 5.31 | 14.64 | |||||||
Mar-24 | 53,556,537,244.24 | 7.55 | 44.56 | 5.19 | 14.04 | |||||||
Feb-24 | 55,948,790,766.46 | 8.10 | 39.50 | 5.50 | 14.53 | |||||||
DQ--Delinquency. |
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
For a dynamic, visual, and comparative view of the data presented in this report, access our new interactive U.S. ABS Auto Loan Tracker dashboard by clicking here. The dashboard tracks the collateral performance of prime and subprime auto ABS transactions and enables the filtering of data to identify key metrics and trends. This image is a preview.
Static Pool Performance And Auto Loan Static Index (ALSI)
Prime CNLs for 2023 and the first two quarters of 2024 continue trending worse than the 2016 vintage, while early performance of third quarter 2024 shows stabilization The Prime static pool for the 2023 vintage with the CNL of 58 basis points (bps) at month 16 continues to exhibit the worst performance of all prior historical annual vintages from 2016 through 2023. We observed further deterioration in performance for the first two quarters of 2024, which have taken slightly higher losses than the 2023 vintage. However, the third-quarter 2024 vintage with CNLs of 18 bps at month 7 is similar to 2016-2019 vintage performance and lower than the 21 bps for Q2 2024 despite recoveries declining to 37.79% from 42.66%.
Higher gross losses combined with lower recoveries remain the main reason for elevated loss performance for 2023 and first two quarters of 2024. For the third quarter of 2024, however, gross losses are trending lower than the two prior quarterly vintages and for 2023. Unfortunately, depressed recoveries for this quarterly vintage (lower than the 2008 vintage) have nearly offset lower defaults.
Lower defaults in the third quarter 2024 are due to prime issuers starting to implement remedies to manage the performance, which includes tightening credit underwriting, improving collection systems, hiring more repossession agents, and implementing enhanced fraud detection systems.
Late payments on the 2022 vintage at month 28 (0.72%) continued to trend slightly higher than the 2008 vintage at the same month, while the 2023 vintage at month 16 (0.56%) is trending slightly better than the 2008 and 2022 vintages. Sixty-plus-day delinquencies for the first-quarter 2024 vintage were 0.52% at month 13 (like 2008), while the second-quarter 2024 vintage's delinquencies totaled 0.49% at month 10 (higher than those for all the previous vintages). However, the 60-plus-day delinquencies for the third quarter of 2024 at month 7 were 0.29%, which is lower than recent vintages.
Overall, the 2023 vintage and first two quarters of 2024 are trending weaker, with higher losses and lower recoveries. However, third-quarter 2024 saw better performance with lower gross and net losses and lower delinquencies.
Chart 5
Chart 6
Chart 7
Chart 8
Subprime CNLs for 2023 vintage and quarterly 2024 vintages continue to track better than 2022, which is the highest loss vintage since 2008, but delinquencies on recent vintages remain elevated
The subprime static pool 2023 vintage performance continues to track better than 2022. At month 17 losses for 2023 were 7.30% compared with 7.99% and 8.00% for 2022 and 2008, respectively. The first-quarter 2024 vintage though is trending worse (CNL of 4.96%) than the 2023 annual vintage (4.78%) at month 12, while the second- and third-quarter 2024 vintages are performing slightly better on a CNL basis than 2023. The third quarter of 2024 reflected some weakening performance at month 7 compared to Q2 2024 at the same point. However, Q3 2024 losses are still lower at 1.98% than Q1 2024 and 2023 at 2.11% and 2.09%, respectively. Additionally, Q3 2024 losses are trending better than 2022.
Recoveries for the 2023 vintage continue to be the weakest observed of the annual cohorts at 33.95% in month 17, compared to 36.17% for 2022 and 36.44% for 2008. Recoveries declined for Q3 2024 at month 7 to 26.13% from 27.18% in Q2 2024 but are still higher than 2023 at the same point in time (25.31%).
Sixty-plus-day delinquencies continued to decline for the 2023 vintage from the historically high levels observed on the 2022 vintage. As of month 17, 2023 delinquencies were 5.79%, compared to 6.49% in 2022 and 4.37% in 2007 (delinquencies were low for the 2008 vintage at 2.30% due to only a few transactions being completed that year). Delinquencies for the first three quarters of 2024 are trending lower than 2022 but remain high relative to prior vintages. Additionally, 60-plus-day delinquencies for Q3 2024 are trending higher at 4.61% in month 7, compared to 4.21% for Q1 2024 and 3.92% for Q2 2024.
Chart 9
Chart 10
Chart 11
Chart 12
Issuer-Specific CNL Performance--Prime
For Prime issuers, we generally observe a weakened performance for the 2023 and 2024 transactions (see charts 13-35 in Appendix I):
- Of the 16 issuers that securitized in both 2023 and 2024, 12 (75%) are reporting higher losses on 2024 vintages than 2023 vintages. However, the degree of deterioration varies by issuer.
- The four issuers for which the losses for 2024 are lower than 2023 are CarMax, Carvana, Hyundai, and Stellantis Financial Services.
Given the weak performance for several 2024 issuances (relative to our expectations), we have raised our expected CNLs (ECNLs) on certain transactions with at least 12 months of performance. For some 2024 prime issuances, although the performance is weaker than COVID-19-impacted transactions, the losses remain in line with our original expectations and, therefore, we maintained our ECNLs. At this time, the transactions have sufficient credit enhancement to absorb the losses at the requisite multiple. As a result, there have been no negative rating actions in the prime sector this year.
On April 22, 2025, we published an in-depth article using loan-level charge-off information explaining some of the reasons certain issuers are reporting higher losses on their 2023 and 2024 issuances (see "Reduced Affordability Contributes To Deteriorating Prime Auto Loan ABS Performance").
Surveillance
Table 3
Surveillance actions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rating action (by class) | ECNL (no. of transactions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Date | Issuer | Transactions reviewed | Upgrades | Downgrades | Affirmations | CreditWatch | Removed from Credit Watch | CreditWatch extended | Increased | Decreased | Maintained | |||||||||||||
Prime | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
4/9/2025 | CRVNA P | 14 | 5 | 65 | 14 | |||||||||||||||||||
4/25/2025 | FAST (Canadian trusts) | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
Nonprime/Subprime | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
4/17/2025 | Lendbuzz | 2 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
4/21/2025 | DRIVE | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
Total | 19 | 13 | 0 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
CRVNA P--Carvana Auto Receivables Trust Prime, Lendbuzz--Lendbuzz Securitization Trust, DRIVE--Drive Auto Receivables Trust, FAST--Ford Auto Securitization Trust II. ECNLs--Expected cumulative net losses. |
Table 4
Historical ratings activity--U.S. auto loan ABS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Period | Upgrades | Downgrades | ||||
2015 | 177 | 0 | ||||
2016 | 357 | 0 | ||||
2017 | 322 | 0 | ||||
2018 | 335 | 2 | ||||
2019 | 432 | 5 | ||||
2020 | 332 | 8 | ||||
2021 | 579 | 0 | ||||
2022 | 416 | 6 | ||||
2023 | 396 | 6 | ||||
2024 | 313 | 11 | ||||
2025(i) | 25 | 0 | ||||
Total | 3,684 | 38 | ||||
(i)As of April 30, 2025. ABS--Asset-backed securities. |
Table 5
Historical ratings activity--Canadian ABS auto loan ABS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Period | Upgrades | Downgrades | ||||
2021 | 8 | 0 | ||||
2022 | 3 | 0 | ||||
2023 | 2 | 0 | ||||
2024 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2025(i) | 2 | 0 | ||||
Total | 15 | 0 | ||||
(i)As of April 30, 2025. ABS--Asset-backed securities. |
In April 2024, we reviewed 17 U.S. transactions and raised our loss expectations on 14, decreased them on one, and maintained them on two. We reviewed 14 Carvana Auto Receivables Trust Prime deals and raised our expectations on all of them on account of higher back-end losses, lower recoveries, and an increasing trend in 60-plus-day delinquencies for the shelf. Nevertheless, the rating actions resulted in five upgrades and 65 affirmations with no downgrades.
Overall, our review resulted in 11 upgrades and 66 affirmations on U.S. auto loan ABS. Through April 30, we have upgraded 25 U.S. auto loan ABS classes and downgraded none. We currently have 10 subprime classes on CreditWatch negative. In March, we placed nine ratings on five Flagship Credit Auto Trust Transactions on CreditWatch negative. Classes D and E are the only affected classes and are from the 2021 and 2022 transactions. Also in March, we placed our 'BB- (sf)' rating on the Prestige Auto Receivables Trust 2024-1 class E notes on CreditWatch negative. These actions are the result of weaker-than-expected performance.
Additionally, in April we reviewed two Canadian ABS transactions and lowered our loss expectations on one and maintained them on one.
Table 6
Carvana Auto Receivables Trust Prime | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Original ECNL | Former ECNL (i) | Revised ECNL/recent action (ii) | ||||||
2020-P1 | 3.75 (3.50-4.00) | 1.40 | 1.70 | |||||
2021-P1 | 3.60 (3.35-3.85) | 1.40 | 1.70 | |||||
2021-P2 | 3.60 (3.35-3.85) | 1.55 | 1.95 | |||||
2021-P3 | 2.75 (2.50-3.00) | 2.10 | 2.65 | |||||
2021-P4 | 2.75 (2.50-3.00) | 2.20 | 2.85 | |||||
2022-P1 | 2.75 (2.50-3.00) | 2.50 | 3.10 | |||||
2022-P2 | 2.75 (2.50-3.00) | 2.70 | 3.60 | |||||
2022-P3 | 2.75 (2.50-3.00) | 3.00 | 3.90 | |||||
2023-P1 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 4.00 | |||||
2023-P2 | 2.75 | 3.10 | 4.25 | |||||
2023-P3 | 2.30 | N/A | 4.50 | |||||
2023-P4 | 2.30 | N/A | 3.80 | |||||
2023-P5 | 2.30 | N/A | 3.00 | |||||
2024-P1 | 2.30 | N/A | 2.75 | |||||
(i)Revised in June 2024.(ii)As of April 2025. CNL exp.--Cumulative net loss expectations. N/A--Not applicable. |
Table 7
Lendbuzz Securitization Trust | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Original ECGL | Former ECGL | Revised ECGL (i) | ||||||
2024-1 | 17.50 | N/A | 17.50 | |||||
2024-2 | 17.50 | N/A | 17.50 | |||||
(i) As of April 2025 distribution date. CGL exp.--Cumulative gross loss expectations. N/A--Not applicable. |
Table 8
Drive Auto Receivables Trust | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Original ECNL | Former ECNL | Revised ECNL (i) | ||||||
2024-1 | 22.00 | N/A | 18.00 | |||||
(i)As of April 2025 distribution date. CNL exp.--Cumulative net loss expectations. |
Table 9
Ford Auto Securitization Trust II | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Original ECNL | Former ECNL (i) | Revised ECNL(ii) | ||||||
2022-A | 1.15 | 0.40 | 0.40 | |||||
2024-A | 1.15 | N/A | 0.90 | |||||
(i)As of November 2023. (ii)As of April 2025. CNL exp.--Cumulative net loss expectations. N/A--Not applicable. |
Appendix I
Chart 13
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Chart 28
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Appendix II
Table 10
Prime cumulative net losses (%)(i) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016(ii) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
No. of deals | 31 | 37 | 26 | 28 | 20 | 31 | 23 | 29 | 21 | 29 | 33 | 35 | 40 | 31 | 33 | 40 | 43 | 15 | 13 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial collateral balance (bil. $) | 49.02 | 53.20 | 41.25 | 33.45 | 22.77 | 40.72 | 27.93 | 31.22 | 24.03 | 36.23 | 41.35 | 44.25 | 50.99 | 41.74 | 45.08 | 52.87 | 71.15 | 21.05 | 18.77 | 17.83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.31 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.35 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 0.41 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 0.67 | 0.81 | 0.45 | 0.29 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 0.42 | 0.47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 0.75 | 0.90 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 0.84 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 0.50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 1.02 | 1.14 | 0.58 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.42 | 0.58 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 1.12 | 1.22 | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 0.64 | 0.42 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 0.48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 1.30 | 1.36 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 0.51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 1.39 | 1.43 | 0.69 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 0.53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 0.72 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 0.74 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 1.63 | 1.60 | 0.76 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 0.61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 1.71 | 1.65 | 0.77 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 0.63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 1.78 | 1.69 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 0.47 | 0.66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 1.84 | 1.73 | 0.80 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 0.68 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 1.91 | 1.76 | 0.82 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 1.97 | 1.79 | 0.83 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.72 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 2.02 | 1.82 | 0.84 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 2.07 | 1.85 | 0.85 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 2.11 | 1.88 | 0.86 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.55 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 2.15 | 1.91 | 0.87 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.74 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 0.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 2.18 | 1.95 | 0.89 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.70 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 0.57 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 2.21 | 1.97 | 0.90 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.76 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 0.58 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 2.24 | 1.98 | 0.91 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.59 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 2.27 | 2.01 | 0.92 | 0.54 | 0.61 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.77 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 2.30 | 2.16 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.62 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 2.32 | 2.17 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.79 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.63 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 2.34 | 2.19 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.79 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.70 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i)We extended the reporting period for the prime 2013 and subsequent vintages to 39 months from 36 to account for the lengthening of loan terms. (ii)Beginning in 2016, we included data from transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings. |
Table 11
Subprime cumulative net losses (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012(i) | 2013 | 2014(ii) | 2015 | 2016(iii) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
No. of deals | 19 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 26 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 38 | 33 | 42 | 39 | 35 | 41 | 40 | 45 | 12 | 14 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial collateral balance (bil. $) | 17.35 | 2.52 | 1.13 | 10.83 | 6.82 | 14.03 | 13.68 | 14.53 | 18.63 | 22.32 | 20.46 | 27.26 | 25.41 | 25.92 | 38.36 | 34.06 | 31.5 | 9.74 | 12.40 | 5.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 1.16 | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.74 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.76 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.78 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.90 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.59 | 1.03 | 0.85 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 1.21 | 1.39 | 1.47 | 1.51 | 1.26 | 1.34 | 0.86 | 1.20 | 1.93 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 1.91 | 1.99 | 2.07 | 1.34 | 1.09 | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.67 | 1.96 | 2.02 | 2.16 | 1.89 | 1.96 | 1.15 | 1.64 | 2.63 | 2.09 | 2.11 | 1.84 | 1.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 2.43 | 2.54 | 2.42 | 1.65 | 1.32 | 1.72 | 1.70 | 2.13 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 2.72 | 2.48 | 2.53 | 1.41 | 2.02 | 3.26 | 2.67 | 2.72 | 2.37 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 2.96 | 3.20 | 2.82 | 2.01 | 1.57 | 2.07 | 2.07 | 2.60 | 3.06 | 3.11 | 3.24 | 2.99 | 3.01 | 1.64 | 2.37 | 3.84 | 3.23 | 3.31 | 2.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 3.47 | 3.82 | 3.10 | 2.32 | 1.82 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 3.04 | 3.61 | 3.66 | 3.74 | 3.46 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 2.74 | 4.39 | 3.76 | 3.85 | 3.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 3.97 | 4.49 | 3.40 | 2.62 | 2.08 | 2.84 | 2.85 | 3.49 | 4.17 | 4.19 | 4.25 | 3.94 | 3.87 | 2.11 | 3.09 | 4.90 | 4.27 | 4.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 4.47 | 5.16 | 3.69 | 2.91 | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 3.92 | 4.68 | 4.71 | 4.77 | 4.39 | 4.21 | 2.33 | 3.44 | 5.44 | 4.78 | 4.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 4.95 | 5.73 | 4.05 | 3.19 | 2.63 | 3.64 | 3.68 | 4.35 | 5.16 | 5.21 | 5.28 | 4.84 | 4.55 | 2.55 | 3.81 | 5.95 | 5.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 5.39 | 6.28 | 4.39 | 3.52 | 2.91 | 4.02 | 4.04 | 4.75 | 5.61 | 5.70 | 5.76 | 5.29 | 4.87 | 2.77 | 4.16 | 6.47 | 5.78 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 5.87 | 6.89 | 4.75 | 3.85 | 3.21 | 4.38 | 4.40 | 5.16 | 6.07 | 6.20 | 6.22 | 5.74 | 5.16 | 2.96 | 4.51 | 6.99 | 6.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 6.38 | 7.44 | 5.11 | 4.17 | 3.47 | 4.72 | 4.77 | 5.54 | 6.57 | 6.66 | 6.67 | 6.19 | 5.45 | 3.16 | 4.86 | 7.49 | 6.80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 6.89 | 8.00 | 5.43 | 4.50 | 3.71 | 5.10 | 5.14 | 5.96 | 7.08 | 7.08 | 7.10 | 6.62 | 5.69 | 3.34 | 5.19 | 7.99 | 7.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 7.39 | 8.52 | 5.77 | 4.79 | 3.93 | 5.45 | 5.53 | 6.34 | 7.54 | 7.50 | 7.53 | 7.05 | 5.88 | 3.52 | 5.52 | 8.49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 7.91 | 8.90 | 6.06 | 5.06 | 4.14 | 5.79 | 5.88 | 6.70 | 8.00 | 7.89 | 7.96 | 7.44 | 6.07 | 3.68 | 5.82 | 8.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 8.39 | 9.34 | 6.24 | 5.33 | 4.35 | 6.11 | 6.20 | 7.06 | 8.42 | 8.28 | 8.35 | 7.79 | 6.23 | 3.85 | 6.09 | 9.41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 8.86 | 9.80 | 6.53 | 5.57 | 4.59 | 6.42 | 6.52 | 7.41 | 8.82 | 8.66 | 8.72 | 8.10 | 6.38 | 4.02 | 6.35 | 9.82 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 9.32 | 10.23 | 6.71 | 5.77 | 4.80 | 6.70 | 6.81 | 7.72 | 9.19 | 9.04 | 9.07 | 8.39 | 6.52 | 4.18 | 6.60 | 10.22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 9.76 | 10.69 | 6.92 | 5.97 | 5.01 | 6.98 | 7.08 | 8.04 | 9.55 | 9.39 | 9.41 | 8.62 | 6.66 | 4.32 | 6.83 | 10.60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 10.19 | 11.08 | 7.10 | 6.17 | 5.22 | 7.27 | 7.34 | 8.33 | 9.88 | 9.73 | 9.74 | 8.82 | 6.79 | 4.47 | 7.08 | 10.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 10.54 | 11.41 | 7.28 | 6.38 | 5.43 | 7.49 | 7.56 | 8.63 | 10.19 | 10.06 | 10.06 | 9.03 | 6.92 | 4.63 | 7.30 | 11.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 10.90 | 11.75 | 7.49 | 6.61 | 5.65 | 7.76 | 7.80 | 8.93 | 10.48 | 10.38 | 10.35 | 9.20 | 7.03 | 4.79 | 7.53 | 11.70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 11.21 | 12.07 | 7.69 | 6.80 | 5.86 | 7.99 | 8.06 | 9.20 | 10.77 | 10.70 | 10.64 | 9.37 | 7.13 | 4.93 | 7.76 | 12.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 11.54 | 12.43 | 7.91 | 7.01 | 6.06 | 8.14 | 8.29 | 9.44 | 11.06 | 10.99 | 10.92 | 9.52 | 7.24 | 5.01 | 7.99 | 12.39 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 11.88 | 12.73 | 8.07 | 7.21 | 6.08 | 8.36 | 8.53 | 9.56 | 11.35 | 11.28 | 11.20 | 9.65 | 7.33 | 5.15 | 8.21 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 12.19 | 13.04 | 8.24 | 7.37 | 6.22 | 8.35 | 8.79 | 9.81 | 11.51 | 11.46 | 11.45 | 9.76 | 7.45 | 5.30 | 8.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 12.50 | 13.28 | 8.41 | 7.58 | 6.36 | 8.57 | 8.93 | 10.04 | 11.77 | 11.56 | 11.64 | 9.86 | 7.55 | 5.41 | 8.61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 12.77 | 13.52 | 8.55 | 7.72 | 6.49 | 8.77 | 9.16 | 10.24 | 12.03 | 11.82 | 11.88 | 9.94 | 7.64 | 5.53 | 8.80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 12.96 | 13.75 | 8.71 | 7.78 | 6.61 | 8.95 | 9.38 | 10.46 | 12.26 | 12.08 | 12.09 | 9.88 | 7.75 | 5.63 | 8.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 13.19 | 13.98 | 8.82 | 7.95 | 6.58 | 8.61 | 9.60 | 10.67 | 12.48 | 12.33 | 12.29 | 9.94 | 7.73 | 5.73 | 9.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 13.38 | 14.22 | 8.88 | 8.10 | 6.71 | 8.77 | 9.80 | 10.92 | 12.70 | 12.56 | 12.45 | 10.00 | 7.82 | 5.83 | 9.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 13.59 | 14.42 | 8.97 | 8.25 | 6.84 | 8.92 | 9.98 | 11.13 | 12.91 | 12.78 | 12.60 | 10.05 | 7.91 | 5.93 | 9.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 13.76 | 14.61 | 9.05 | 8.38 | 6.99 | 9.07 | 10.16 | 11.31 | 13.10 | 12.99 | 12.72 | 10.12 | 8.01 | 6.03 | 9.64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 13.92 | 14.78 | 9.13 | 8.54 | 7.11 | 9.21 | 10.32 | 11.50 | 13.31 | 13.19 | 12.83 | 10.17 | 8.10 | 6.13 | 9.79 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 14.08 | 14.96 | 9.22 | 8.67 | 7.24 | 9.36 | 10.50 | 11.67 | 13.49 | 13.38 | 12.94 | 10.21 | 8.17 | 6.22 | 9.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 14.23 | 15.12 | 9.33 | 8.78 | 7.37 | 9.50 | 10.66 | 11.60 | 13.70 | 13.56 | 13.03 | 10.27 | 8.26 | 6.31 | 10.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | 14.39 | 15.27 | 9.44 | 8.92 | 7.44 | 9.64 | 10.82 | 11.10 | 13.90 | 13.75 | 13.10 | 10.31 | 8.36 | 6.39 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 14.53 | 15.39 | 9.50 | 9.05 | 7.53 | 9.77 | 10.98 | 11.21 | 14.10 | 13.93 | 13.18 | 10.36 | 8.44 | 6.22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i)Cumulative net losses declined in month 34 because two transactions with relatively high losses paid off in month 33. (ii)Cumulative net losses declined in months 40 and 41 because some high loss transactions paid off in months 39 and 40. (iii)Beginning in 2016, includes AmeriCredit and SDART transactions that are not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings. |
Table 12
Prime cumulative gross losses (%)(i) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016(ii) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
No. of deals | 31 | 37 | 26 | 28 | 20 | 31 | 23 | 29 | 21 | 29 | 33 | 35 | 40 | 31 | 33 | 40 | 43 | 15 | 13 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial collateral balance (bil. $) | 49.02 | 53.20 | 41.25 | 33.45 | 22.77 | 40.72 | 27.93 | 31.22 | 24.03 | 36.23 | 41.35 | 44.25 | 50.99 | 41.74 | 45.08 | 52.87 | 71.15 | 21.05 | 18.77 | 17.83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 0.54 | 0.63 | 0.45 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 0.30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 0.81 | 0.96 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 0.96 | 1.14 | 0.75 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.59 | 0.67 | 0.60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 1.13 | 1.33 | 0.85 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.46 | 0.67 | 0.76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 1.28 | 1.50 | 0.94 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.76 | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 1.44 | 1.69 | 1.03 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.76 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.59 | 0.84 | 0.93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 1.60 | 1.88 | 1.11 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 1.76 | 2.06 | 1.20 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.93 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 1.93 | 2.24 | 1.29 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 1.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 2.11 | 2.40 | 1.37 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.77 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.84 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 2.28 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 0.82 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.98 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.04 | 0.95 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.90 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 2.45 | 2.73 | 1.53 | 1.09 | 1.11 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 1.19 | 1.13 | 1.09 | 0.99 | 0.64 | 0.74 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 2.63 | 2.88 | 1.60 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 0.91 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.25 | 1.18 | 1.15 | 1.03 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 1.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 2.81 | 3.02 | 1.67 | 1.19 | 1.22 | 0.95 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 1.30 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.06 | 0.70 | 0.82 | 1.07 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 2.98 | 3.16 | 1.74 | 1.24 | 1.27 | 0.99 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.36 | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.10 | 0.72 | 0.86 | 1.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 3.14 | 3.30 | 1.80 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.03 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.24 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1.13 | 0.75 | 0.90 | 1.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 3.30 | 3.41 | 1.86 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.07 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.28 | 1.46 | 1.38 | 1.32 | 1.16 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 1.24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 3.44 | 3.52 | 1.91 | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.11 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 1.36 | 1.19 | 0.79 | 0.98 | 1.29 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 3.58 | 3.62 | 1.96 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.14 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.37 | 1.55 | 1.46 | 1.39 | 1.21 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 1.34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 2.02 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.41 | 1.60 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 1.24 | 0.83 | 1.06 | 1.38 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 2.07 | 1.48 | 1.54 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.45 | 1.64 | 1.55 | 1.46 | 1.27 | 0.85 | 1.09 | 1.43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 3.98 | 3.89 | 2.11 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.23 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.49 | 1.67 | 1.58 | 1.49 | 1.28 | 0.87 | 1.13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 4.10 | 3.97 | 2.15 | 1.54 | 1.61 | 1.26 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.52 | 1.71 | 1.62 | 1.51 | 1.30 | 0.89 | 1.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 4.20 | 4.05 | 2.19 | 1.57 | 1.66 | 1.28 | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.56 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 1.54 | 1.32 | 0.91 | 1.19 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 4.29 | 4.12 | 2.23 | 1.59 | 1.69 | 1.30 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.59 | 1.78 | 1.68 | 1.56 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 1.23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 4.38 | 4.21 | 2.30 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 1.33 | 1.52 | 1.53 | 1.61 | 1.81 | 1.72 | 1.58 | 1.35 | 0.95 | 1.26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 4.46 | 4.28 | 2.34 | 1.51 | 1.75 | 1.35 | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.64 | 1.84 | 1.74 | 1.60 | 1.36 | 0.96 | 1.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 4.54 | 4.33 | 2.37 | 1.53 | 1.78 | 1.37 | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.77 | 1.61 | 1.38 | 0.98 | 1.32 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 4.61 | 4.39 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 1.80 | 1.39 | 1.59 | 1.63 | 1.69 | 1.89 | 1.79 | 1.63 | 1.40 | 0.99 | 1.34 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 4.68 | 4.72 | 2.42 | 1.57 | 1.83 | 1.42 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.72 | 1.92 | 1.83 | 1.64 | 1.41 | 1.01 | 1.37 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 4.74 | 4.77 | 2.45 | 1.59 | 1.85 | 1.43 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.74 | 1.96 | 1.85 | 1.66 | 1.42 | 1.02 | 1.40 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 4.80 | 4.82 | 2.55 | 1.63 | 1.87 | 1.49 | 1.66 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.99 | 1.88 | 1.67 | 1.45 | 1.04 | 1.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i)We extended the reporting period for the prime 2013 and subsequent vintages to 39 months from 36 to account for the lengthening of loan terms. (ii)Beginning in 2016, we included data from transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings. |
Table 13
Subprime cumulative gross losses (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012(i) | 2013 | 2014(ii) | 2015 | 2016(iii) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
No. of deals | 19 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 26 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 38 | 33 | 42 | 39 | 35 | 41 | 40 | 45 | 12 | 14 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial collateral balance (bil. $) | 17.35 | 2.52 | 1.13 | 10.83 | 6.82 | 14.03 | 13.68 | 14.53 | 18.63 | 22.32 | 20.46 | 27.26 | 25.41 | 25.92 | 38.36 | 34.06 | 31.5 | 9.74 | 12.40 | 5.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 1.18 | 0.74 | 0.59 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.39 | 0.58 | 0.77 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 1.32 | 1.24 | 1.85 | 1.21 | 1.03 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.19 | 1.24 | 0.77 | 1.10 | 1.58 | 1.23 | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 2.19 | 2.09 | 2.49 | 1.65 | 1.45 | 1.81 | 1.73 | 1.89 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 2.18 | 1.97 | 2.02 | 1.21 | 1.73 | 2.54 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.81 | 1.86 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 3.03 | 2.98 | 3.28 | 2.15 | 1.90 | 2.40 | 2.36 | 2.64 | 2.99 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.93 | 2.92 | 1.70 | 2.43 | 3.56 | 2.80 | 2.84 | 2.54 | 2.69 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 3.79 | 3.79 | 3.92 | 2.69 | 2.33 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 3.40 | 3.89 | 3.85 | 4.01 | 3.88 | 3.79 | 2.17 | 3.11 | 4.52 | 3.64 | 3.73 | 3.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 4.67 | 4.81 | 4.66 | 3.27 | 2.77 | 3.62 | 3.67 | 4.19 | 4.79 | 4.70 | 4.85 | 4.76 | 4.59 | 2.62 | 3.78 | 5.45 | 4.49 | 4.61 | 4.06 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 5.44 | 5.79 | 5.21 | 3.85 | 3.22 | 4.27 | 4.36 | 4.98 | 5.74 | 5.58 | 5.69 | 5.61 | 5.33 | 3.09 | 4.48 | 6.35 | 5.34 | 5.46 | 4.80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 6.32 | 6.85 | 5.75 | 4.42 | 3.68 | 4.94 | 5.09 | 5.76 | 6.70 | 6.46 | 6.55 | 6.43 | 6.03 | 3.66 | 5.16 | 7.22 | 6.13 | 6.31 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 7.15 | 7.91 | 6.28 | 4.95 | 4.21 | 5.66 | 5.85 | 6.52 | 7.61 | 7.31 | 7.40 | 7.28 | 6.69 | 4.12 | 5.84 | 8.10 | 6.94 | 7.14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 7.96 | 8.84 | 6.85 | 5.47 | 4.73 | 6.36 | 6.60 | 7.29 | 8.49 | 8.14 | 8.28 | 8.10 | 7.33 | 4.59 | 6.53 | 8.96 | 7.76 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 8.70 | 9.70 | 7.44 | 6.06 | 5.25 | 7.07 | 7.31 | 8.03 | 9.32 | 8.98 | 9.12 | 8.92 | 7.94 | 5.06 | 7.20 | 9.81 | 8.53 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 9.48 | 10.71 | 8.06 | 6.64 | 5.79 | 7.74 | 8.00 | 8.77 | 10.17 | 9.81 | 9.94 | 9.74 | 8.51 | 5.51 | 7.87 | 10.65 | 9.35 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 10.27 | 11.62 | 8.73 | 7.24 | 6.29 | 8.39 | 8.70 | 9.49 | 11.03 | 10.58 | 10.74 | 10.54 | 9.06 | 5.97 | 8.53 | 11.48 | 10.14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 11.07 | 12.58 | 9.29 | 7.81 | 6.80 | 9.07 | 9.39 | 10.22 | 11.90 | 11.34 | 11.52 | 11.32 | 9.58 | 6.40 | 9.18 | 12.28 | 10.92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 11.86 | 13.46 | 9.87 | 8.36 | 7.25 | 9.75 | 10.10 | 10.90 | 12.72 | 12.04 | 12.29 | 12.06 | 10.07 | 6.83 | 9.80 | 13.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 12.67 | 14.10 | 10.37 | 8.90 | 7.67 | 10.40 | 10.77 | 11.57 | 13.52 | 12.73 | 13.04 | 12.73 | 10.55 | 7.24 | 10.40 | 13.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 13.43 | 14.82 | 10.72 | 9.42 | 8.10 | 11.01 | 11.41 | 12.22 | 14.28 | 13.41 | 13.76 | 13.36 | 10.99 | 7.64 | 10.95 | 14.58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 14.15 | 15.58 | 11.29 | 9.92 | 8.54 | 11.60 | 12.03 | 12.83 | 15.00 | 14.06 | 14.45 | 13.93 | 11.41 | 8.04 | 11.48 | 15.27 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 14.86 | 16.28 | 11.68 | 10.38 | 8.97 | 12.15 | 12.62 | 13.42 | 15.67 | 14.70 | 15.10 | 14.46 | 11.82 | 8.44 | 12.00 | 15.93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 15.57 | 17.08 | 12.04 | 10.81 | 9.41 | 12.70 | 13.17 | 13.99 | 16.31 | 15.31 | 15.73 | 14.93 | 12.21 | 8.81 | 12.49 | 16.57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 16.26 | 17.74 | 12.38 | 11.23 | 9.83 | 13.24 | 13.71 | 14.53 | 16.92 | 15.92 | 16.34 | 15.36 | 12.58 | 9.17 | 12.96 | 17.19 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 16.86 | 18.32 | 12.73 | 11.65 | 10.25 | 13.84 | 14.26 | 15.06 | 17.50 | 16.49 | 16.92 | 15.77 | 12.94 | 9.54 | 13.41 | 17.79 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 17.48 | 18.90 | 13.11 | 12.09 | 10.66 | 14.36 | 14.77 | 15.59 | 18.04 | 17.05 | 17.47 | 16.15 | 13.27 | 9.89 | 13.85 | 18.36 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 18.03 | 19.46 | 13.52 | 12.51 | 11.06 | 14.82 | 15.26 | 16.09 | 18.56 | 17.59 | 18.02 | 16.51 | 13.60 | 10.24 | 14.29 | 18.94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 18.58 | 20.05 | 13.88 | 12.93 | 11.45 | 15.18 | 15.73 | 16.55 | 19.08 | 18.11 | 18.53 | 16.85 | 13.91 | 10.48 | 14.71 | 19.47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 19.14 | 20.58 | 14.20 | 13.32 | 11.56 | 15.60 | 16.19 | 16.84 | 19.59 | 18.60 | 19.02 | 17.17 | 14.21 | 10.80 | 15.12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 19.67 | 21.14 | 14.51 | 13.69 | 11.86 | 15.72 | 16.64 | 17.29 | 19.97 | 19.00 | 19.48 | 17.49 | 14.51 | 11.11 | 15.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 20.19 | 21.55 | 14.82 | 14.13 | 12.18 | 16.14 | 16.96 | 17.70 | 20.43 | 19.29 | 19.86 | 17.77 | 14.80 | 11.39 | 15.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 20.56 | 21.97 | 15.11 | 14.48 | 12.47 | 16.53 | 17.41 | 18.10 | 20.87 | 19.75 | 20.27 | 18.04 | 15.08 | 11.66 | 16.23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 20.95 | 22.35 | 15.42 | 14.74 | 12.71 | 16.91 | 17.80 | 18.50 | 21.28 | 20.18 | 20.64 | 18.19 | 15.35 | 11.92 | 16.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 21.35 | 22.75 | 15.64 | 15.09 | 12.96 | 16.50 | 18.20 | 18.87 | 21.68 | 20.58 | 20.99 | 18.42 | 15.51 | 12.16 | 16.90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 21.70 | 23.19 | 15.82 | 15.39 | 13.23 | 16.83 | 18.57 | 19.34 | 22.06 | 20.98 | 21.29 | 18.65 | 15.76 | 12.39 | 17.20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 22.09 | 23.56 | 15.98 | 15.68 | 13.50 | 17.14 | 18.92 | 19.70 | 22.50 | 21.36 | 21.59 | 18.86 | 16.00 | 12.62 | 17.49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 22.41 | 23.90 | 16.15 | 15.95 | 13.77 | 17.43 | 19.25 | 20.03 | 22.85 | 21.71 | 21.84 | 19.07 | 16.24 | 12.84 | 17.79 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 22.73 | 24.21 | 16.32 | 16.23 | 14.02 | 17.74 | 19.55 | 20.34 | 23.21 | 22.05 | 22.08 | 19.26 | 16.46 | 13.05 | 18.06 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 23.02 | 24.52 | 16.49 | 16.51 | 14.26 | 18.02 | 19.88 | 20.64 | 23.54 | 22.39 | 22.30 | 19.44 | 16.69 | 13.26 | 18.35 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 23.21 | 24.81 | 16.69 | 16.76 | 14.52 | 18.31 | 20.17 | 20.59 | 23.96 | 22.69 | 22.50 | 19.63 | 16.90 | 13.44 | 18.46 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | 23.50 | 25.11 | 16.89 | 17.01 | 14.72 | 18.57 | 20.46 | 19.90 | 24.38 | 23.05 | 22.69 | 19.81 | 17.11 | 13.63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 23.75 | 25.35 | 17.02 | 17.26 | 14.91 | 18.82 | 20.74 | 20.12 | 24.70 | 23.41 | 23.01 | 19.97 | 17.31 | 13.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i)Cumulative gross losses declined in month 34 as two transactions with relatively high losses paid off in month 33. (ii)Cumulative gross losses declined in months 40 and 41 as some high loss transactions paid off in months 39 and 40. (iii)Beginning in 2016, includes AmeriCredit and SDART transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings. |
Table 14
Prime 60-plus-day delinquencies (%)(i) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016(ii) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
No. of deals | 31 | 37 | 26 | 28 | 20 | 31 | 23 | 29 | 21 | 29 | 33 | 35 | 40 | 31 | 33 | 40 | 43 | 15 | 13 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial collateral balance (bil. $) | 49.02 | 53.20 | 41.25 | 33.45 | 22.77 | 40.72 | 27.93 | 31.22 | 24.03 | 36.23 | 41.35 | 44.25 | 50.99 | 41.74 | 45.08 | 52.87 | 71.15 | 21.05 | 18.77 | 17.83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.19 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.27 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.29 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.46 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 0.52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.55 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.51 | 0.58 | 0.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.54 | 0.60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.46 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.55 | 0.60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.56 | 0.62 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 0.63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 0.66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.69 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 0.79 | 0.66 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.56 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.63 | 0.71 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.65 | 0.72 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.69 | 0.74 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 0.88 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.62 | 0.49 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.42 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.71 | 0.74 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.73 | 0.75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 0.94 | 0.76 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.77 | 0.78 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.74 | 0.56 | 0.68 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.81 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.69 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.72 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.81 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.78 | 0.59 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.83 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.83 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 1.02 | 0.89 | 0.70 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.54 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.91 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.87 | 0.65 | 0.78 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 1.16 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 0.69 | 0.78 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 1.16 | 1.05 | 0.93 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.56 | 0.45 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i)We extended the reporting period for the prime 2013 and subsequent vintages to 39 months from 36 to account for the lengthening of loan terms. (ii)Beginning in 2016, we included data from transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings. |
Table 15
Subprime 60-plus-day delinquencies (%)(i) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
No. of deals | 19 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 26 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 38 | 33 | 42 | 39 | 35 | 41 | 40 | 45 | 12 | 14 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial collateral balance (bil. $) | 17.35 | 2.52 | 1.13 | 10.83 | 6.82 | 14.03 | 13.68 | 14.53 | 18.63 | 22.32 | 20.46 | 27.26 | 25.41 | 25.92 | 38.36 | 34.06 | 31.5 | 9.74 | 12.40 | 5.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 1.22 | 1.07 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.89 | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.30 | 1.04 | 0.84 | 0.69 | 0.96 | 1.35 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 1.10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 1.42 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 1.74 | 1.04 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.78 | 2.29 | 2.06 | 2.72 | 2.53 | 2.05 | 1.47 | 2.02 | 2.88 | 2.08 | 2.09 | 2.04 | 2.50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 2.09 | 1.82 | 1.51 | 1.86 | 1.25 | 1.97 | 2.08 | 2.29 | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.44 | 3.31 | 2.82 | 1.93 | 2.67 | 3.77 | 2.82 | 2.80 | 2.62 | 3.48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 2.44 | 1.85 | 1.64 | 1.97 | 1.36 | 2.33 | 2.49 | 2.59 | 3.20 | 2.90 | 3.70 | 3.53 | 3.24 | 2.00 | 3.04 | 4.27 | 3.21 | 3.40 | 3.23 | 4.23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 2.61 | 1.87 | 1.68 | 2.10 | 1.24 | 2.37 | 2.58 | 2.87 | 3.24 | 3.03 | 3.68 | 3.67 | 3.51 | 2.10 | 3.34 | 4.59 | 3.58 | 3.95 | 3.56 | 4.60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 2.82 | 2.24 | 2.07 | 2.38 | 1.32 | 2.24 | 2.47 | 3.03 | 3.36 | 3.28 | 3.61 | 3.77 | 3.60 | 2.18 | 3.57 | 4.64 | 3.83 | 4.21 | 3.92 | 4.61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 2.97 | 2.60 | 1.35 | 2.58 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 2.59 | 3.27 | 3.61 | 3.48 | 3.69 | 3.85 | 3.57 | 2.29 | 3.83 | 4.67 | 4.06 | 4.50 | 4.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 3.03 | 2.79 | 1.04 | 2.61 | 1.72 | 2.62 | 2.92 | 3.46 | 3.99 | 3.78 | 3.91 | 3.95 | 3.57 | 2.44 | 4.09 | 4.80 | 4.27 | 4.83 | 4.37 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 3.13 | 2.75 | 1.24 | 2.54 | 1.93 | 2.98 | 3.26 | 3.60 | 4.24 | 4.00 | 4.19 | 4.13 | 3.59 | 2.54 | 4.27 | 5.02 | 4.35 | 5.05 | 4.24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 3.25 | 2.57 | 1.52 | 2.50 | 2.04 | 3.34 | 3.45 | 3.83 | 4.37 | 4.00 | 4.58 | 4.33 | 3.70 | 2.72 | 4.52 | 5.23 | 4.50 | 5.24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 3.32 | 2.45 | 1.76 | 2.75 | 2.14 | 3.47 | 3.58 | 4.01 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 4.90 | 4.54 | 3.74 | 2.93 | 4.85 | 5.50 | 4.72 | 5.41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 3.34 | 2.55 | 1.75 | 3.05 | 2.40 | 3.43 | 3.66 | 4.19 | 4.45 | 4.42 | 4.97 | 4.86 | 3.78 | 3.10 | 5.12 | 5.64 | 4.90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 3.65 | 2.57 | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.41 | 3.52 | 3.79 | 4.27 | 4.78 | 4.43 | 4.99 | 5.09 | 3.78 | 3.28 | 5.39 | 5.81 | 5.26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 4.00 | 2.84 | 1.75 | 3.52 | 2.56 | 3.71 | 3.94 | 4.58 | 5.14 | 4.49 | 5.18 | 5.16 | 3.82 | 3.43 | 5.65 | 6.11 | 5.46 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 4.15 | 2.82 | 1.74 | 3.58 | 2.58 | 3.88 | 4.30 | 4.75 | 5.44 | 4.79 | 5.34 | 5.29 | 3.76 | 3.55 | 5.78 | 6.31 | 5.60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 4.37 | 2.30 | 1.86 | 3.64 | 2.49 | 4.14 | 4.53 | 4.79 | 5.54 | 4.70 | 5.49 | 5.37 | 3.64 | 3.69 | 5.83 | 6.49 | 5.79 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 4.45 | 2.25 | 1.88 | 3.73 | 2.35 | 4.13 | 4.52 | 4.85 | 5.57 | 4.79 | 5.62 | 5.35 | 3.54 | 3.87 | 6.01 | 6.67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 4.55 | 2.42 | 2.47 | 3.94 | 2.40 | 4.16 | 4.47 | 4.80 | 5.49 | 4.88 | 5.72 | 5.33 | 3.58 | 4.02 | 6.00 | 6.64 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 4.47 | 2.64 | 1.56 | 4.04 | 2.57 | 4.19 | 4.47 | 4.89 | 5.54 | 4.93 | 5.82 | 5.15 | 3.65 | 4.20 | 6.04 | 6.62 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 4.66 | 2.82 | 1.23 | 4.03 | 2.80 | 4.28 | 4.57 | 5.00 | 5.69 | 5.09 | 5.83 | 5.00 | 3.64 | 4.33 | 6.11 | 6.69 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 4.74 | 2.53 | 1.26 | 3.92 | 3.00 | 4.46 | 4.62 | 5.03 | 5.74 | 5.28 | 5.89 | 4.80 | 3.67 | 4.37 | 6.09 | 6.67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 4.57 | 2.30 | 1.43 | 4.08 | 2.97 | 4.58 | 4.57 | 5.15 | 5.71 | 5.22 | 5.97 | 4.67 | 3.68 | 4.53 | 6.17 | 6.80 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 4.56 | 2.11 | 1.66 | 4.42 | 3.17 | 4.63 | 4.62 | 5.34 | 5.56 | 5.23 | 6.06 | 4.51 | 3.77 | 4.78 | 6.30 | 6.90 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 4.42 | 2.22 | 1.77 | 4.71 | 3.30 | 4.67 | 4.88 | 5.34 | 5.60 | 5.44 | 6.13 | 4.40 | 3.79 | 4.92 | 6.46 | 6.94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 4.54 | 2.33 | 2.16 | 4.94 | 3.32 | 4.62 | 4.98 | 5.38 | 5.74 | 5.41 | 6.16 | 4.37 | 3.97 | 5.06 | 6.62 | 7.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 4.62 | 2.60 | 1.72 | 5.00 | 3.43 | 4.64 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 6.13 | 5.39 | 6.21 | 4.37 | 4.07 | 5.15 | 6.86 | 7.23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 4.77 | 2.70 | 1.70 | 5.10 | 3.29 | 4.84 | 5.26 | 5.55 | 6.31 | 5.40 | 6.31 | 4.29 | 4.34 | 5.25 | 6.94 | 7.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 4.93 | 2.04 | 2.00 | 5.29 | 3.21 | 4.90 | 5.53 | 5.80 | 6.26 | 5.38 | 6.40 | 4.12 | 4.54 | 5.22 | 7.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 4.80 | 1.99 | 1.96 | 5.40 | 2.90 | 5.05 | 5.58 | 5.84 | 6.44 | 5.28 | 6.48 | 4.02 | 4.63 | 5.40 | 7.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 4.82 | 2.20 | 2.69 | 5.56 | 2.84 | 5.18 | 5.63 | 5.87 | 6.31 | 5.67 | 6.60 | 3.97 | 4.84 | 5.37 | 7.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 4.73 | 2.41 | 1.60 | 5.66 | 3.14 | 5.24 | 5.70 | 6.18 | 6.24 | 5.83 | 6.42 | 4.04 | 5.04 | 5.34 | 7.23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 4.69 | 2.83 | 1.25 | 5.65 | 3.48 | 4.98 | 5.96 | 6.24 | 6.32 | 6.11 | 6.18 | 4.08 | 5.14 | 5.42 | 7.24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 4.73 | 2.48 | 1.30 | 5.57 | 3.66 | 5.23 | 5.92 | 6.27 | 6.52 | 6.08 | 5.94 | 4.02 | 5.30 | 5.38 | 7.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 4.49 | 2.26 | 1.68 | 5.67 | 3.64 | 5.31 | 5.96 | 6.51 | 6.51 | 6.05 | 5.73 | 4.11 | 5.48 | 5.54 | 7.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 4.41 | 2.12 | 1.81 | 5.99 | 3.73 | 5.47 | 5.86 | 6.56 | 6.50 | 6.05 | 5.54 | 4.16 | 5.61 | 5.75 | 7.52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 4.34 | 2.29 | 2.02 | 6.46 | 3.77 | 5.55 | 6.17 | 6.57 | 6.51 | 6.22 | 5.22 | 4.29 | 5.81 | 5.79 | 7.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 4.30 | 2.31 | 2.90 | 6.67 | 3.79 | 5.74 | 6.36 | 6.62 | 6.60 | 6.31 | 5.18 | 4.52 | 5.96 | 5.86 | 7.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 4.40 | 2.69 | 2.48 | 6.70 | 3.97 | 5.99 | 6.57 | 6.69 | 6.81 | 6.34 | 5.17 | 4.71 | 6.05 | 5.83 | 7.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 4.52 | 2.80 | 2.17 | 6.76 | 4.03 | 5.90 | 6.89 | 6.61 | 7.23 | 6.41 | 4.83 | 4.96 | 6.32 | 5.90 | 8.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | 4.71 | 1.97 | 2.24 | 7.10 | 4.04 | 6.12 | 7.16 | 7.14 | 7.57 | 6.66 | 4.65 | 5.00 | 6.35 | 5.89 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 4.62 | 2.03 | 2.09 | 6.96 | 3.62 | 6.23 | 7.30 | 7.01 | 7.22 | 6.68 | 4.67 | 5.17 | 6.39 | 5.66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i)Beginning in 2016, includes AmeriCredit and SDART transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings. |
Table 16
Prime cumulative recoveries (%)(i) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016(ii) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
No. of deals | 31 | 37 | 26 | 28 | 20 | 31 | 23 | 29 | 21 | 29 | 33 | 35 | 40 | 31 | 33 | 40 | 43 | 15 | 13 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial collateral balance (bil. $) | 49.02 | 53.20 | 41.25 | 33.45 | 22.77 | 40.72 | 27.93 | 31.22 | 24.03 | 36.23 | 41.35 | 44.25 | 50.99 | 41.74 | 45.08 | 52.87 | 71.15 | 21.05 | 18.77 | 17.83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 27.98 | 0.00 | 23.32 | 19.68 | 21.47 | 20.28 | 18.61 | 31.98 | 26.35 | 25.57 | 16.46 | 26.76 | 35.00 | 27.48 | 29.76 | 0.00 | 23.80 | 2.03 | 32.62 | 29.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 49.69 | 43.02 | 40.43 | 47.24 | 65.16 | 59.19 | 57.05 | 54.08 | 40.70 | 43.19 | 41.64 | 49.03 | 44.76 | 46.40 | 46.08 | 34.62 | 36.41 | 38.68 | 35.90 | 28.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 47.75 | 41.67 | 42.50 | 48.71 | 63.52 | 56.24 | 53.60 | 54.69 | 39.78 | 42.03 | 42.47 | 47.08 | 47.60 | 46.98 | 44.72 | 37.63 | 37.19 | 34.94 | 37.03 | 28.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 44.53 | 40.73 | 42.09 | 48.33 | 60.04 | 54.66 | 47.95 | 50.42 | 41.08 | 39.93 | 41.61 | 44.95 | 45.13 | 43.16 | 44.25 | 34.05 | 34.92 | 34.84 | 39.78 | 31.56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 44.98 | 41.42 | 44.01 | 48.39 | 60.63 | 55.15 | 46.94 | 50.07 | 42.86 | 41.09 | 42.14 | 46.63 | 44.14 | 42.55 | 46.60 | 35.97 | 37.00 | 36.86 | 39.34 | 33.93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 45.67 | 41.72 | 46.10 | 50.04 | 60.98 | 56.11 | 48.71 | 50.38 | 43.52 | 42.71 | 43.46 | 47.21 | 44.04 | 45.18 | 48.07 | 36.59 | 39.15 | 37.89 | 40.25 | 35.65 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 46.28 | 42.13 | 47.29 | 51.74 | 61.48 | 56.68 | 49.14 | 52.08 | 44.53 | 44.07 | 44.74 | 48.13 | 44.58 | 47.60 | 48.27 | 38.39 | 39.76 | 39.75 | 42.66 | 37.79 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 47.28 | 42.85 | 48.22 | 52.86 | 61.96 | 57.18 | 51.82 | 52.89 | 45.68 | 45.80 | 45.71 | 49.07 | 45.94 | 49.53 | 49.70 | 41.63 | 40.82 | 40.60 | 42.60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 47.46 | 43.53 | 49.09 | 54.60 | 62.30 | 56.80 | 53.33 | 53.37 | 47.04 | 46.85 | 46.86 | 49.77 | 46.71 | 51.78 | 50.64 | 44.26 | 41.74 | 41.32 | 43.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 47.34 | 44.19 | 49.84 | 55.52 | 62.95 | 56.76 | 53.60 | 53.88 | 47.38 | 47.08 | 47.48 | 50.24 | 48.25 | 54.04 | 52.27 | 45.26 | 43.06 | 41.34 | 44.35 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 47.05 | 44.99 | 50.88 | 56.31 | 63.01 | 57.42 | 54.19 | 54.71 | 47.57 | 47.94 | 48.63 | 50.74 | 48.03 | 55.44 | 52.73 | 45.96 | 43.94 | 41.84 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 46.96 | 45.26 | 51.66 | 57.02 | 63.29 | 57.98 | 54.79 | 55.30 | 48.51 | 48.28 | 49.22 | 51.41 | 48.30 | 56.90 | 53.21 | 45.95 | 45.30 | 42.43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 46.94 | 45.79 | 52.29 | 57.84 | 63.54 | 58.55 | 54.89 | 56.05 | 49.68 | 49.01 | 49.57 | 51.83 | 49.38 | 58.24 | 53.38 | 46.73 | 46.02 | 43.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 46.85 | 46.48 | 52.97 | 58.10 | 64.16 | 58.60 | 54.94 | 56.21 | 50.05 | 49.64 | 49.98 | 52.11 | 49.79 | 59.07 | 53.48 | 47.68 | 46.66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 46.62 | 47.11 | 53.61 | 58.77 | 64.35 | 58.85 | 55.21 | 56.22 | 50.34 | 50.27 | 50.61 | 52.42 | 50.77 | 60.20 | 53.58 | 48.23 | 47.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 46.56 | 47.66 | 54.07 | 59.25 | 64.55 | 59.19 | 55.55 | 56.48 | 50.95 | 50.25 | 50.96 | 52.44 | 51.57 | 60.87 | 54.09 | 48.73 | 47.90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 46.43 | 48.18 | 54.70 | 59.83 | 64.73 | 59.23 | 55.70 | 56.73 | 51.38 | 50.66 | 51.49 | 52.67 | 52.32 | 61.22 | 54.76 | 48.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 46.44 | 48.71 | 55.17 | 60.24 | 64.53 | 59.45 | 55.73 | 56.79 | 51.70 | 50.62 | 51.90 | 52.88 | 53.26 | 61.59 | 55.06 | 49.28 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 46.57 | 49.10 | 55.65 | 60.93 | 64.42 | 59.81 | 55.97 | 56.84 | 51.84 | 51.04 | 52.24 | 52.95 | 54.12 | 62.05 | 55.02 | 49.63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 46.78 | 49.47 | 56.09 | 61.35 | 64.75 | 59.98 | 56.51 | 56.96 | 52.19 | 51.48 | 52.66 | 53.00 | 54.95 | 62.29 | 55.04 | 50.20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 46.89 | 49.90 | 56.45 | 61.72 | 65.07 | 60.09 | 56.81 | 57.03 | 52.26 | 51.77 | 52.87 | 53.06 | 55.70 | 62.76 | 55.40 | 50.41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 47.13 | 50.36 | 56.99 | 61.92 | 65.23 | 60.42 | 57.17 | 57.22 | 52.61 | 52.00 | 53.09 | 53.06 | 56.37 | 63.09 | 55.83 | 50.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 47.23 | 50.69 | 57.43 | 62.29 | 65.24 | 60.56 | 57.23 | 57.44 | 52.70 | 52.19 | 53.24 | 53.50 | 56.93 | 63.46 | 56.01 | 51.13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 47.49 | 51.11 | 58.01 | 62.61 | 65.43 | 60.57 | 57.45 | 57.63 | 52.86 | 52.32 | 53.41 | 53.66 | 57.67 | 63.60 | 56.28 | 51.23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 47.77 | 51.48 | 58.47 | 62.81 | 65.61 | 60.77 | 57.42 | 58.02 | 53.21 | 52.60 | 53.54 | 54.01 | 58.25 | 63.77 | 56.51 | 51.66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 48.04 | 51.86 | 58.82 | 63.14 | 65.61 | 60.97 | 57.66 | 58.23 | 53.48 | 52.77 | 53.76 | 54.30 | 58.73 | 63.98 | 56.72 | 51.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 48.24 | 52.25 | 59.11 | 63.35 | 65.67 | 61.26 | 58.02 | 58.47 | 53.52 | 53.09 | 54.01 | 54.63 | 59.36 | 63.97 | 56.91 | 52.40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 48.46 | 52.56 | 59.44 | 63.71 | 65.84 | 61.47 | 58.17 | 58.64 | 53.80 | 53.27 | 54.25 | 54.94 | 59.71 | 63.82 | 57.08 | 52.73 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 48.71 | 52.83 | 59.74 | 63.90 | 66.03 | 61.69 | 58.18 | 58.74 | 53.95 | 53.46 | 54.48 | 55.38 | 60.17 | 63.78 | 57.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 48.93 | 53.12 | 60.09 | 64.11 | 66.12 | 61.88 | 58.38 | 58.84 | 54.20 | 53.69 | 54.58 | 55.96 | 60.63 | 64.04 | 57.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 49.23 | 53.39 | 60.47 | 64.33 | 66.38 | 62.19 | 58.55 | 58.95 | 54.34 | 53.88 | 54.61 | 56.54 | 60.91 | 64.24 | 58.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 49.51 | 53.67 | 60.84 | 64.40 | 66.49 | 62.39 | 58.87 | 59.14 | 54.63 | 54.21 | 54.67 | 57.03 | 61.25 | 64.52 | 58.45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 49.79 | 53.80 | 61.06 | 65.35 | 66.55 | 62.71 | 59.05 | 59.18 | 54.91 | 54.47 | 54.70 | 57.43 | 61.55 | 64.84 | 58.75 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 50.05 | 54.07 | 61.23 | 65.65 | 66.71 | 62.79 | 59.50 | 59.20 | 55.25 | 54.70 | 54.76 | 57.83 | 61.73 | 65.24 | 58.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 50.26 | 54.34 | 61.51 | 65.95 | 66.75 | 62.96 | 59.61 | 59.29 | 55.66 | 54.83 | 54.89 | 58.28 | 62.09 | 65.35 | 59.37 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 50.46 | 54.56 | 61.61 | 66.11 | 66.85 | 63.12 | 59.85 | 59.52 | 56.00 | 55.03 | 55.14 | 58.62 | 62.32 | 65.63 | 59.64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 50.66 | 54.26 | 59.98 | 59.72 | 56.35 | 55.25 | 55.37 | 59.00 | 62.56 | 65.76 | 59.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 50.87 | 54.49 | 60.22 | 59.85 | 56.61 | 55.51 | 55.62 | 59.40 | 62.78 | 65.96 | 59.87 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 51.08 | 54.71 | 60.74 | 60.10 | 56.87 | 55.71 | 55.84 | 59.80 | 63.03 | 66.16 | 60.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i)Starting this month, we have extended the performance data for the recent vintages (2013 onwards) to 39 months to account for the lengthening of loan terms. (ii)Beginning in 2016, we included data from transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings. |
Table 17
Subprime cumulative recoveries (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016(i) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
No. of deals | 19 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 26 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 38 | 33 | 42 | 39 | 35 | 41 | 40 | 45 | 12 | 14 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial collateral balance (bil. $) | 17.35 | 2.52 | 1.13 | 10.83 | 6.82 | 14.03 | 13.68 | 14.53 | 18.63 | 22.32 | 20.46 | 27.26 | 25.41 | 25.92 | 38.36 | 34.06 | 31.5 | 9.74 | 12.40 | 5.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 50.45 | 4.68 | 26.37 | 13.24 | 38.17 | 34.26 | 48.95 | 26.51 | 19.69 | 15.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 52.67 | 16.20 | 33.03 | 40.00 | 48.39 | 49.13 | 50.63 | 44.56 | 42.02 | 31.09 | 27.69 | 35.86 | 37.57 | 29.60 | 35.57 | 28.04 | 21.62 | 28.13 | 37.22 | 31.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 46.95 | 29.34 | 37.37 | 41.47 | 47.18 | 52.07 | 55.86 | 45.53 | 43.70 | 36.42 | 33.07 | 40.27 | 39.40 | 31.98 | 34.67 | 32.47 | 29.33 | 32.56 | 38.80 | 37.34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 38.89 | 27.91 | 35.33 | 35.15 | 42.05 | 42.02 | 42.71 | 38.13 | 37.37 | 33.71 | 29.27 | 36.51 | 33.91 | 25.98 | 29.38 | 23.21 | 22.71 | 22.52 | 25.08 | 22.66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 36.34 | 28.40 | 35.45 | 37.94 | 42.98 | 41.06 | 42.01 | 37.93 | 36.74 | 33.13 | 30.05 | 37.49 | 34.15 | 28.40 | 30.60 | 23.93 | 23.22 | 23.36 | 25.49 | 21.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 35.89 | 31.83 | 34.81 | 38.97 | 44.45 | 43.35 | 45.07 | 38.11 | 36.19 | 33.07 | 31.05 | 37.06 | 34.20 | 31.03 | 32.34 | 24.66 | 24.27 | 24.16 | 26.44 | 23.34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 36.19 | 32.88 | 35.59 | 39.61 | 45.43 | 44.30 | 45.17 | 38.54 | 36.08 | 33.38 | 31.32 | 36.04 | 33.26 | 34.06 | 34.27 | 26.65 | 25.47 | 25.31 | 27.18 | 26.13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 36.63 | 32.92 | 36.98 | 40.39 | 45.82 | 44.39 | 45.00 | 39.35 | 36.71 | 34.22 | 32.71 | 36.03 | 33.66 | 36.85 | 36.65 | 28.74 | 27.04 | 26.97 | 28.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 36.59 | 33.43 | 38.30 | 40.34 | 45.82 | 44.24 | 44.87 | 40.07 | 37.59 | 34.88 | 33.84 | 37.17 | 34.80 | 39.39 | 38.64 | 30.51 | 28.76 | 28.28 | 29.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 37.35 | 33.91 | 39.23 | 41.16 | 45.64 | 44.21 | 44.88 | 40.84 | 38.47 | 35.43 | 34.90 | 38.34 | 35.66 | 41.55 | 40.16 | 31.89 | 30.09 | 29.45 | 31.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 37.65 | 34.37 | 39.72 | 42.06 | 45.70 | 43.96 | 45.01 | 41.31 | 39.06 | 36.08 | 35.76 | 39.06 | 36.41 | 41.82 | 41.56 | 32.93 | 31.07 | 29.92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 37.83 | 34.69 | 40.13 | 42.55 | 45.90 | 43.85 | 44.95 | 41.62 | 39.64 | 36.53 | 36.37 | 39.88 | 37.50 | 43.18 | 42.49 | 33.76 | 31.84 | 30.40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 38.19 | 35.11 | 39.93 | 42.96 | 46.14 | 44.19 | 45.17 | 42.03 | 40.32 | 36.89 | 37.01 | 40.16 | 38.38 | 44.38 | 43.22 | 34.63 | 32.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 38.40 | 35.30 | 40.10 | 43.14 | 46.16 | 44.42 | 45.56 | 42.36 | 40.82 | 37.29 | 37.55 | 40.57 | 39.05 | 45.58 | 43.82 | 35.18 | 33.06 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 38.47 | 35.64 | 40.15 | 43.33 | 46.12 | 44.69 | 45.88 | 42.70 | 41.22 | 37.59 | 38.09 | 40.98 | 39.66 | 46.54 | 44.28 | 35.55 | 33.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 38.35 | 35.95 | 40.70 | 43.63 | 46.41 | 45.00 | 46.05 | 42.98 | 41.28 | 37.78 | 38.52 | 41.20 | 40.15 | 47.24 | 44.63 | 35.90 | 33.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 38.27 | 36.44 | 40.81 | 43.76 | 46.81 | 45.04 | 46.08 | 43.02 | 41.35 | 38.13 | 38.96 | 41.38 | 40.97 | 48.10 | 44.91 | 36.17 | 33.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 38.16 | 36.70 | 40.95 | 44.05 | 47.14 | 45.32 | 46.09 | 43.18 | 41.54 | 38.34 | 39.25 | 41.39 | 41.95 | 48.79 | 45.12 | 36.31 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 37.99 | 36.91 | 40.97 | 44.45 | 47.36 | 45.45 | 46.14 | 43.34 | 41.59 | 38.60 | 39.49 | 41.44 | 42.85 | 49.49 | 45.39 | 36.53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 37.93 | 37.02 | 41.29 | 44.79 | 47.45 | 45.62 | 46.34 | 43.41 | 41.72 | 38.78 | 39.83 | 41.53 | 43.68 | 50.07 | 45.71 | 36.67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 37.81 | 37.20 | 41.68 | 45.16 | 47.46 | 45.73 | 46.46 | 43.46 | 41.88 | 38.89 | 40.13 | 41.70 | 44.44 | 50.57 | 45.97 | 36.89 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 37.72 | 37.29 | 42.01 | 45.63 | 47.53 | 45.84 | 46.65 | 43.59 | 41.96 | 38.98 | 40.44 | 41.86 | 45.18 | 51.05 | 46.22 | 37.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 37.74 | 37.47 | 42.00 | 45.90 | 47.68 | 45.98 | 46.82 | 43.67 | 42.06 | 39.14 | 40.65 | 42.12 | 45.82 | 51.51 | 46.46 | 37.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 37.70 | 37.64 | 42.24 | 46.11 | 47.83 | 46.01 | 47.01 | 43.72 | 42.17 | 39.25 | 40.81 | 42.37 | 46.37 | 51.85 | 46.64 | 37.41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 37.87 | 37.79 | 42.37 | 46.21 | 47.84 | 46.95 | 47.64 | 43.78 | 42.27 | 39.33 | 40.97 | 42.59 | 46.91 | 52.08 | 46.84 | 37.50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 38.04 | 37.90 | 42.49 | 46.36 | 47.84 | 47.04 | 47.83 | 43.73 | 42.40 | 39.42 | 41.16 | 42.88 | 47.42 | 52.22 | 46.98 | 37.61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 38.23 | 38.01 | 42.68 | 46.60 | 47.82 | 47.13 | 47.84 | 43.79 | 42.45 | 39.48 | 41.33 | 43.12 | 47.86 | 52.34 | 47.04 | 37.70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 38.31 | 38.06 | 42.66 | 46.73 | 47.85 | 47.36 | 47.97 | 43.89 | 42.46 | 39.57 | 41.42 | 43.33 | 48.28 | 52.61 | 47.10 | 37.72 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 38.38 | 38.21 | 42.78 | 46.80 | 47.99 | 47.41 | 47.92 | 44.03 | 42.48 | 39.60 | 41.47 | 43.66 | 48.69 | 52.71 | 47.14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 38.49 | 38.38 | 42.85 | 47.11 | 48.18 | 47.67 | 47.85 | 44.04 | 42.68 | 39.81 | 41.52 | 44.02 | 48.96 | 52.77 | 47.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 38.58 | 38.45 | 42.90 | 47.40 | 48.31 | 47.63 | 47.93 | 44.06 | 42.67 | 40.09 | 41.67 | 44.37 | 49.29 | 52.96 | 47.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 38.79 | 38.54 | 43.03 | 47.68 | 48.44 | 47.66 | 47.90 | 44.24 | 42.66 | 40.13 | 41.67 | 44.73 | 49.63 | 53.08 | 47.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 38.98 | 38.59 | 43.16 | 48.11 | 48.52 | 47.76 | 47.84 | 44.23 | 42.67 | 40.15 | 41.68 | 45.39 | 49.84 | 53.33 | 47.20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 39.07 | 38.62 | 43.26 | 48.17 | 49.68 | 48.08 | 47.76 | 44.21 | 42.67 | 40.21 | 41.71 | 45.73 | 50.30 | 53.48 | 47.21 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 39.20 | 38.75 | 43.50 | 48.19 | 49.72 | 48.18 | 47.73 | 44.40 | 42.67 | 40.27 | 41.80 | 46.07 | 50.56 | 53.58 | 47.24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 39.33 | 38.86 | 43.59 | 48.22 | 49.72 | 48.23 | 47.74 | 44.33 | 42.87 | 40.29 | 41.88 | 46.40 | 50.75 | 53.65 | 47.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 39.49 | 38.94 | 43.69 | 48.27 | 49.68 | 48.24 | 47.73 | 44.33 | 42.91 | 40.30 | 42.01 | 46.65 | 50.87 | 53.70 | 47.31 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 39.63 | 39.01 | 43.77 | 48.22 | 49.70 | 48.34 | 47.72 | 44.26 | 42.92 | 40.30 | 42.14 | 46.91 | 50.99 | 53.76 | 47.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 39.74 | 39.06 | 43.81 | 48.29 | 49.70 | 48.28 | 47.68 | 44.24 | 43.09 | 40.31 | 42.23 | 47.17 | 51.20 | 53.79 | 47.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 39.95 | 39.14 | 43.85 | 48.39 | 49.72 | 48.38 | 47.04 | 44.33 | 43.11 | 40.34 | 42.33 | 47.39 | 51.28 | 53.79 | 47.28 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | 40.04 | 39.24 | 43.88 | 48.38 | 49.85 | 48.37 | 47.60 | 44.58 | 43.29 | 40.46 | 42.48 | 47.63 | 51.34 | 53.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 40.13 | 39.35 | 43.95 | 48.38 | 49.90 | 48.37 | 47.53 | 44.68 | 43.25 | 40.64 | 43.01 | 47.83 | 51.43 | 54.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | 43.69 | 48.02 | 51.55 | 54.27 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(i)Beginning in 2016 Includes SDART and AmeriCredit transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. |
Appendix III: Auto Tracker Frequently Asked Questions
How do you define prime auto loan ABS?
We generally categorize prime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of 3.25% or less and average FICO scores of 700 or higher. We include CarMax and Carvana in this segment.
How do you define subprime auto loan ABS?
We generally categorize subprime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of at least 7.5%, average FICO scores of less than 620, and annual percentage rates that exceed 14.0%.
How do you calculate the monthly net loss rate?
The monthly net loss rate is annualized. It equals each transaction's net loss rate weighted by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index. We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. Transactions usually have zero or low losses during their first three months, which dilute the composite figures.
How do you calculate the monthly recovery rate?
We calculate recoveries by taking the recovery amount reported (which typically includes all recoveries, such as disposition proceeds, post-disposition proceeds, and any other reported recoveries) over the gross loss amount for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's recovery percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index. We only allow a transaction to enter the index starting in its fourth month outstanding. During a transaction's first three months, unusually high or low recoveries are reported, leading to a spike in the composite figures.
How do you calculate the monthly 60-plus-day delinquency rate?
We calculate delinquencies by taking each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency amount over the ending pool balance for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the composite. We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. During the transaction's first three months, zero or fewer delinquencies are reported, which dilutes the composite figures.
Related Research
- Two Ratings Raised And Six Affirmed On Ford Auto Securitization Trust II Series 2022-A And 2024-A, April 25, 2025
- Reduced Affordability Contributes To Deteriorating Prime Auto Loan ABS Performance, April 22, 2025
- Two Drive Auto Receivables Trust 2024-1 Ratings Raised And One Affirmed, April 21, 2025
- Four Ratings Raised On Two Lendbuzz Securitization Trust Auto ABS Transactions, April 17, 2025
- Five Ratings Raised And 65 Affirmed On 14 Carvana Auto Receivables Trust Prime Auto ABS Transactions, April 9, 2025
- Inflation And Affordability Challenges Remain For Consumers Despite Low Unemployment, March 19, 2025
- U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance, Feb. 13, 2025
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Primary Credit Analyst: | Amy S Martin, New York + 1 (212) 438 2538; amy.martin@spglobal.com |
Secondary Contacts: | Jenna Cilento, New York + 1 (212) 438 1533; jenna.cilento@spglobal.com |
Ambika Garg, Chicago + 1 (312) 233 7034; ambika.garg@spglobal.com | |
Analytical Manager: | Frank J Trick, New York + 1 (212) 438 1108; frank.trick@spglobal.com |
Research Contributor: | Kapil Sharma, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai |
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