Key Takeaways
- Our macroeconomic baseline for EMs remains broadly unchanged from the second quarter, with most EMs' GDP growth set to be moderately stronger in 2024 than in 2023.
- A later-than-anticipated start to interest rate cuts by the Fed will contribute to slower monetary policy normalization in most major EMs, though our view on terminal benchmark interest rates remains unchanged.
- Policy-related risks have risen following electoral outcomes that generate uncertainty over reforms, fiscal trajectories, and institutional frameworks in several EMs.
Our baseline macroeconomic forecast for emerging markets remains broadly unchanged relative to the second quarter. We continue to expect 2024 to show significant growth divergence across emerging markets (EMs). Growth outperformers in 2023 (such as Brazil, Mexico, and India) will experience moderate deceleration in growth rates in 2024, although their growth will remain relatively strong. Conversely, last year's growth underperformers (among them Chile, Colombia, Peru, Thailand, Hungary, Poland, and South Africa) will experience modest acceleration in growth in 2024.
In the coming quarters, EMs will continue to encounter risks to growth, including the lagged impact of high interest rates and an expected deceleration in U.S. economic growth.
Chart 1
Most EMs' Growth Will Strengthen This Year
Most EMs' growth will strengthen in 2024, mainly due to strong domestic demand. In most EMs, unemployment rates remain near record lows, helped by the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and in most cases by fiscal support. This has pushed consumption past pre-pandemic levels in all EMs.
Table 1
| 2024 GDP growth forecast versus 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Faster | Slower | Same |
| Chile | Argentina | Indonesia |
| Colombia | Brazil | |
| Peru | Mexico | |
| Malaysia | China | |
| Philippines | India | |
| Thailand | Turkiye | |
| Vietnam | ||
| Hungary | ||
| Poland | ||
| Saudi Arabia | ||
| South Africa | ||
Trade weakness has bottomed out. However, further improvement remains highly vulnerable to setbacks. EMs with strong trade ties with advanced Europe are benefiting from a modest recovery in household spending, with positive effects on manufacturing production. Manufacturing sectors in emerging Asia, especially those exposed to the improving electronics trade cycle, are also recovering.
Continued strength in U.S. demand is also helping manufacturing production in several Latin American economies. However, the expected deceleration in U.S. growth and the lagged impact of high interest rates across other advanced economies mean that the speed and duration of trade cycle improvement are far from assured.
Chart 2
Policy Predictability Has Weakened
Monetary policy normalization will be slow and influenced by the Federal Reserve's own interest rate path. We now expect fed funds rate cuts will start in December this year and last into late 2026. As a result, we now expect slower monetary policy normalization in most major EMs. Our terminal interest rate projections remain unchanged.
Disinflation continues across EMs, although a recent increase in food prices and U.S. dollar strengthening have tempered expectations for further decreases in inflation. A delayed start to fed rate cuts will likely affirm EM central banks' determination in anchoring inflation expectations.
Chart 3
In Brazil, uncertainty over the trajectory of fiscal policy and the implications of upcoming changes to the central bank's governor and board of directors has added a risk premium to interest rate expectations. Combined with rising inflation expectations, this has steepened the interest rate curve, which is now pricing in interest rate hikes by the end of this year. For now, however, we don't project interest rate hikes in Brazil. However, if inflation expectations head higher, we will reassess our assumptions.
Lower policy predictability could dampen investment in several EMs. Unexpected electoral outcomes in South Africa, India, and Mexico have increased uncertainty over policy paths. In South Africa and India, ruling parties underperformed polls, which means they will have to increase their reliance on alliances to govern, potentially influencing economic policies.
In Mexico, a resounding victory by the incumbent Morena party increases uncertainty over several potential constitutional reforms (see "Mexico's New Administration Faces Lagging Economic Growth And Weaknesses In Public Finances," June 3, 2024). We are waiting to see what the proposed economic policies and reform outcomes will be, as well as how they could influence fiscal and institutional frameworks, to assess whether they will affect our macroeconomic baseline.
Chart 4
Forecast Update
Our 2024 real GDP growth forecast for EMs excluding China remains unchanged at 3.9%, following 4.2% expansion in 2023. However, we adjusted our 2024 GDP growth forecasts for several countries.
We made the largest upward revisions to Turkiye (+50 basis points) and Chile (+40 basis points), in both cases due to stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP reports.
We lowered our growth projections the most for Saudi Arabia (-70 basis points), Thailand (-50 basis points), and South Africa (-40 basis points). In Saudi Arabia's case, the cause was the extension of oil production cuts this year. In Thailand and South Africa, growth in the first quarter underperformed our expectations.
Table 2
| S&P Global Ratings GDP growth forecasts | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (%) | --Change from March 24 forecasts-- | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EM countries | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | |||||||||||||||
| Argentina | (2.0) | (9.9) | 10.7 | 5.0 | (1.6) | (3.5) | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Brazil | 1.2 | (3.6) | 5.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Chile | 0.7 | (6.4) | 11.6 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | (0.1) | (0.3) | |||||||||||||||
| Colombia | 3.2 | (7.2) | 10.8 | 7.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Mexico | (0.3) | (8.8) | 6.3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | (0.3) | (0.1) | (0.1) | |||||||||||||||
| Peru | 2.2 | (11.1) | 13.6 | 2.7 | (0.5) | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| China | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | (0.2) | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| India | 3.9 | (5.8) | 9.1 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Indonesia | 5.0 | (2.1) | 3.7 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | (0.1) | |||||||||||||||
| Malaysia | 4.4 | (5.5) | 3.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | (0.2) | |||||||||||||||
| Philippines | 6.1 | (9.5) | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.4 | (0.1) | (0.1) | (0.1) | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Thailand | 2.1 | (6.1) | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.0 | (0.5) | 0.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Vietnam | 7.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 0.0 | (0.3) | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Hungary | 4.9 | (4.7) | 7.2 | 4.6 | (0.7) | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
| Poland | 4.4 | (2.0) | 6.8 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
| Turkiye | 0.8 | 1.7 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | (1.0) | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 0.8 | (4.3) | 3.9 | 8.7 | (0.9) | 1.5 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | (0.7) | 0.4 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
| South Africa | 0.3 | (6.0) | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | (0.4) | (0.1) | (0.1) | |||||||||||||||
| Aggregates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EM-18 | 4.0 | (1.8) | 7.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | (0.1) | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| EM-17 (excl. China) | 2.6 | (4.7) | 7.2 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | (0.1) | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| EM-Latam | 0.5 | (6.9) | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| EM-SEAsia | 4.9 | (3.7) | 3.4 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | (0.1) | 0.0 | (0.1) | |||||||||||||||
| EM-EMEA | 1.6 | (1.4) | 8.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | (0.3) | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
| Aggregates are weighted by PPP GDP (2017-2021 average) share of total. For India, 2019 = FY 2019-2020, 2020 = FY 2020-2021 … 2027 = FY 2027-2028. FY begins on April of calendar year. f--S&P Global Ratings forecasts. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Regional Summaries
Latin America: Our 2024 real GDP growth forecast for the region remains unchanged at 1.2% (or 2.0% excluding Argentina), although we revised expectations for several countries.
For Brazil, we revised up our forecast to 2.0% growth this year (compared with 1.8% previously), mainly due to stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter. We are waiting for economic data that shows the impact on GDP growth of devasting floods in the southern state Rio Grande do Sul between late April and early May.
In Chile, we now project the economy will expand 2.4% in 2024 (compared with 2.0% previously), also due to stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter. Exports, especially mining related, have performed strongly so far this year, with copper output returning to growth after contracting for several years.
For Mexico, we revised down our forecast to 2.2% growth in 2024 (compared with 2.5% previously), given softer-than-expected growth so far this year as construction and manufacturing activity moderates from strong levels in 2023.
The resounding electoral victory by incumbent party Morena's Claudia Sheinbaum has increased investor concerns over the future of several reforms and the path of fiscal policy, as reflected in a surge in volatility in Mexico's exchange rate markets. For now, we assume broad continuity in Mexico's fiscal, monetary, and trade policies under the incoming administration. That said, downside risks to that assumption have risen after the election.
We kept our growth projections unchanged for Argentina, Colombia, and Peru. In Argentina, President Javier Milei's administration has made a fiscal adjustment that will result in a 3.5% contraction in GDP growth this year. The decline in GDP will be more acute in the first half of 2024, before a gradual recovery starting in the second half.
In Colombia, we continue to project 1.1% GDP growth this year, a moderate improvement from 0.6% in 2023. We expect investment dynamics to remain weak due to uncertainty over several reforms proposed by President Gustavo Petro as well as over the government's fiscal path.
In Peru, after the economy contracted 0.5% in 2023, we expect growth to recover to 2.7% in 2024, helped by improvements in sectors including fishing, mining, and construction. Overall investment is likely to remain subdued due to ongoing political uncertainties.
EM EMEA: We increased our 2024 growth projection for Turkiye, lowered it for Saudi Arabia and South Africa, and kept it broadly unchanged for Hungary and Poland.
In Turkiye, we now project 3.5% GDP growth this year (compared with 3.0% previously), after stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter. Nevertheless, given a tight monetary stance and the government's commitment to not raising minimum wages this year, we expect the economy to weaken, especially in the second half of this year.
In Saudi Arabia, we now expect the economy to expand 1.5% this year (compared with 2.2% previously). Recent OPEC+ and government announcements on oil production targets have caused us to revise oil output assumptions, with cuts now expected to stay until end-2024.
In South Africa, we now expect growth of 0.9% this year (compared with 1.3% previously), given a mild sequential contraction in GDP growth in the first quarter. Current coalition government negotiations will influence growth and exchange rate dynamics in the coming quarters.
We project 2.3% GDP growth for Hungary and 2.9% for Poland this year. Both economies' first-quarter GDP reports were in line with our expectations, and both will continue to recover from very weak growth in 2023, helped by improving growth in advanced Europe. High-frequency indicators also suggest household consumption is strengthening further, which we expect will be a key driver of growth this year.
EM Southeast Asia: We made no major changes to our 2024 growth forecasts in the region except in Thailand, where lower-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth prompted us to lower our projection to 3.5% (from 3.9%). We forecast growth for the region of 4.8%, compared with 4.4% in 2023.
The moderate recovery this year stems from a gradual manufacturing upturn and steady domestic demand. The region had weaker growth in 2023 as the global trade cycle softened, but certain risks have receded.
Manufacturing activity, for example, is showing improvement in the region this year, as global trade and goods demand have stabilized. The region's manufacturing sectors are highly sensitive to global economic conditions. High-frequency readings, including purchasing managers' indices and industrial production data, are improving. Manufacturing sectors' growth in gross value added exceeded 2023 rates in the first quarter of 2024.
Strength in the electronics sector will support manufacturing. Global goods demand for semiconductors is resilient, particularly for AI-related equipment. For now, high-income East Asian economies have experienced the strongest electronics demand, but several emerging Asian economies are also plugged into global electronics supply chains and should gradually benefit.
Tighter monetary policy has not dampened domestic demand as much as feared. While lagged effects of tighter monetary policy persist, we now expect domestic activity to remain steady through the rest of the year. Domestic credit growth has stabilized, labor markets are still resilient, and high-frequency indicators such as retail sales and payments point to stable growth ahead.
Inflation is controlled in emerging Asia overall. Some economies are facing inflationary pressure from food prices, but core inflation is contained across the region. In addition, stable global oil and energy prices are helping keep a lid on energy inflation. Overall, we expect inflation to ease further over the next two quarters.
Risks To Baseline Growth
An escalation of the Israel-Hamas war and surrounding conflict in the Middle East is a major risk to our growth outlook for EMs, given the potential impact on shipping and energy prices.
A potentially weaker-than-expected growth trajectory for the U.S. is another risk, with significant negative implications for the global economy and an outsize effect on EMs with strong economic ties to the U.S., such as several Latin American countries. Alternatively, a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, while generally positive for EMs, could in the short term contribute to maintaining interest rates higher for longer and appreciate the U.S. dollar (with negative implications for inflation through foreign exchange pass-through effects).
Finally, the recent electoral outcomes in several EMs could take a toll on investment through the decrease in policy visibility.
Appendix
Table 3
| Consumer price inflation (year average) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | CB inflation target | ||||||||||||
| Argentina | 53.5 | 42.0 | 48.4 | 72.4 | 133.5 | 250.0 | 95.0 | 52.5 | 40.0 | No target | ||||||||||||
| Brazil | 3.7 | 3.2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0% +/- 1.5% | ||||||||||||
| Chile | 2.3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Colombia | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Mexico | 3.6 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Peru | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0% - 3.0% | ||||||||||||
| China | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.0% | ||||||||||||
| India | 4.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 +/- 2.0% | ||||||||||||
| Indonesia | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.5% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Malaysia | 0.7 | (1.1) | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | No target | ||||||||||||
| Philippines | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Thailand | 0.7 | (0.8) | 1.2 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.5% +/- 1.5% | ||||||||||||
| Vietnam | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.0% | ||||||||||||
| Hungary | 3.4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 15.3 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Poland | 2.1 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.5% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Turkiye | 15.2 | 12.3 | 19.6 | 72.3 | 53.8 | 57.8 | 28.1 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 5.0% +/- 2.0% | ||||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | (2.1) | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | No target | ||||||||||||
| South Africa | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.0% - 6.0% | ||||||||||||
| Median | 2.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | |||||||||||||
| f--S&P Global Ratings forecasts. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 4
| Policy rates (end-year) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | |||||||||||
| Argentina | 55.00 | 38.00 | 38.00 | 75.00 | 100.00 | 40.00 | 30.00 | 25.00 | 25.00 | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 4.50 | 2.00 | 9.25 | 13.75 | 11.75 | 10.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | |||||||||||
| Chile | 1.75 | 0.50 | 4.00 | 11.25 | 8.25 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 4.25 | 1.75 | 3.00 | 12.00 | 13.00 | 9.75 | 7.50 | 7.00 | 7.00 | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 7.25 | 4.25 | 5.50 | 10.50 | 11.25 | 10.50 | 8.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | |||||||||||
| Peru | 2.25 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 7.50 | 6.75 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | |||||||||||
| China | 3.25 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | |||||||||||
| India | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | |||||||||||
| Indonesia | 5.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.25 | 4.75 | 4.75 | |||||||||||
| Malaysia | 2.96 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | |||||||||||
| Philippines | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 6.25 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | |||||||||||
| Thailand | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 0.90 | 0.60 | 2.40 | 13.00 | 10.50 | 6.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 1.50 | 0.10 | 1.75 | 7.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 4.75 | 3.00 | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| Turkiye | 12.00 | 17.00 | 14.00 | 9.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 30.00 | 15.00 | 10.00 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 2.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 4.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 6.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 7.00 | 8.25 | 7.75 | 6.75 | 6.00 | 6.00 | |||||||||||
| Note: For China, the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate is shown. f--S&P Global Ratings forecast. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 5
| Unemployment rate (year average) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | |||||||||||
| Argentina | 9.8 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 7.9 | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 12.1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | |||||||||||
| Chile | 7.2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.6 | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 10.9 | 16.7 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 9.9 | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | |||||||||||
| Peru | 4.0 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | |||||||||||
| China | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | |||||||||||
| Indonesia | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | |||||||||||
| Malaysia | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |||||||||||
| Philippines | 5.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | |||||||||||
| Thailand | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | |||||||||||
| Turkiye | 13.7 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 10.5 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 5.6 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 28.7 | 29.2 | 34.3 | 33.5 | 32.5 | 31.7 | 31.0 | 30.9 | 30.8 | |||||||||||
| f--S&P Global Ratings forecast. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 6
| Exchange rates versus U.S. dollar (year average) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | ||||||||||||
| Argentina | 48.30 | 70.60 | 95.10 | 130.70 | 296.50 | 1,150.00 | 2,100.00 | 2,875.00 | 3,500.00 | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 3.94 | 5.16 | 5.39 | 5.16 | 5.00 | 5.10 | 5.18 | 5.23 | 5.25 | |||||||||||
| Chile | 703.00 | 792.00 | 759.00 | 873.00 | 840.00 | 930.00 | 935.00 | 960.00 | 975.00 | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 3,281.00 | 3,694.00 | 3,742.00 | 4,255.00 | 4,327.00 | 3,975.00 | 4,075.00 | 4,150.00 | 4,225.00 | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 19.26 | 21.49 | 20.28 | 20.12 | 17.74 | 17.60 | 18.35 | 18.75 | 19.25 | |||||||||||
| Peru | 3.34 | 3.49 | 3.88 | 3.83 | 3.74 | 3.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 4.00 | |||||||||||
| China | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.40 | 6.70 | 7.10 | 7.20 | 7.10 | 6.90 | 6.80 | |||||||||||
| India | 70.90 | 74.20 | 74.50 | 80.00 | 82.80 | 83.60 | 84.60 | 85.90 | 87.50 | |||||||||||
| Indonesia | 14,150.00 | 14,593.00 | 14,307.00 | 14,853.00 | 15,237.00 | 16,018.00 | 15,938.00 | 15,925.00 | 15,975.00 | |||||||||||
| Malaysia | 4.14 | 4.20 | 4.14 | 4.40 | 4.59 | 4.69 | 4.61 | 4.53 | 4.47 | |||||||||||
| Philippines | 51.80 | 49.60 | 49.30 | 54.50 | 55.60 | 56.60 | 54.60 | 52.60 | 51.40 | |||||||||||
| Thailand | 31.00 | 31.30 | 32.00 | 35.10 | 35.10 | 36.80 | 36.90 | 36.70 | 36.40 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 290.70 | 308.00 | 303.14 | 375.08 | 353.09 | 366.70 | 374.55 | 377.23 | 378.04 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.76 | 3.95 | 4.00 | |||||||||||
| Turkiye | 5.70 | 7.00 | 8.90 | 16.44 | 24.73 | 32.01 | 37.19 | 43.03 | 48.66 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 14.50 | 16.50 | 14.80 | 16.40 | 18.50 | 19.00 | 19.20 | 19.30 | 19.20 | |||||||||||
| f--S&P Global Ratings forecast. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 7
| Exchange rates versus U.S. dollar (end-year) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | ||||||||||||
| Argentina | 59.90 | 84.15 | 102.75 | 177.13 | 808.50 | 1,700.00 | 2,500.00 | 3,250.00 | 3,750.00 | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 4.03 | 5.20 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.84 | 5.15 | 5.20 | 5.25 | 5.25 | |||||||||||
| Chile | 745.00 | 711.00 | 850.00 | 861.00 | 885.00 | 925.00 | 950.00 | 975.00 | 975.00 | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 3,277.00 | 3,433.00 | 3,981.00 | 4,812.00 | 3,822.00 | 4,050.00 | 4,100.00 | 4,200.00 | 4,250.00 | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 18.85 | 19.95 | 20.58 | 19.40 | 16.92 | 18.25 | 18.50 | 19.00 | 19.50 | |||||||||||
| Peru | 3.31 | 3.62 | 3.97 | 3.81 | 3.71 | 3.75 | 3.85 | 3.95 | 4.05 | |||||||||||
| China | 7.00 | 6.50 | 6.40 | 6.90 | 7.10 | 7.20 | 6.98 | 6.88 | 6.78 | |||||||||||
| India | 72.40 | 72.90 | 75.20 | 81.70 | 83.00 | 84.00 | 85.00 | 86.50 | 88.00 | |||||||||||
| Indonesia | 14,067.00 | 14,386.00 | 14,261.00 | 15,592.00 | 15,439.00 | 16,000.00 | 15,900.00 | 15,950.00 | 16,000.00 | |||||||||||
| Malaysia | 4.17 | 4.11 | 4.18 | 4.41 | 4.59 | 4.66 | 4.57 | 4.51 | 4.45 | |||||||||||
| Philippines | 51.00 | 48.30 | 50.50 | 57.40 | 56.10 | 56.00 | 54.00 | 51.90 | 51.30 | |||||||||||
| Thailand | 30.30 | 30.60 | 33.40 | 34.80 | 34.70 | 37.00 | 36.80 | 36.50 | 36.30 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 300.00 | 302.50 | 318.70 | 373.10 | 355.20 | 372.20 | 376.00 | 378.00 | 378.10 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 3.87 | 3.78 | 4.04 | 4.28 | 4.15 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.99 | 4.05 | |||||||||||
| Turkiye | 5.79 | 7.86 | 11.14 | 18.61 | 30.00 | 32.50 | 40.00 | 45.00 | 50.00 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 14.70 | 15.70 | 15.40 | 17.70 | 18.80 | 19.10 | 19.20 | 19.30 | 19.30 | |||||||||||
| f--S&P Global Ratings forecast. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Chief Economist, Emerging Markets: | Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, New York + 1 (212) 438 2228; elijah.oliveros@spglobal.com |
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