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Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2022 Annual Infrastructure Default And Rating Transition Study

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Credit Trends: Risky Credits: Emerging Markets: Issuance Activity And Deleveraging Plans

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Credit Trends: U.S. Corporate Bond Yields As Of Oct. 23, 2024

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Credit Trends: Global Refinancing: Reductions In Near-Term Maturities Continue Ahead Of Further Rate Cuts

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Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2022 Annual Infrastructure Default And Rating Transition Study

S&P Global Ratings' infrastructure default tally rose to three in 2022, up from one in 2021 (see chart 1). The default rate rose to 0.2% in 2022, up from 0.1% in 2021. Investment-grade (IG) defaults are rare, averaging 0.6 per year since 1981 (see table 1), compared to 2.9 speculative-grade (SG) defaults per year. There were no IG defaults in 2022 for the third year in a row and in 13 of the last 14 years, while the SG default rate rose to 0.8% in 2022, up from 0.3% in 2021. Over the same timeframe, the global corporate SG default rate rose to 1.9% in 2022 from 1.7% in 2021.

Chart 1

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Historically, SG issues have defaulted at a higher rate than IG, with a default rate of 1.8% compared to 0.1% for IG. 2001 was one major outlier, when there were 10 IG defaults compared to only one SG default due to the effects of the failure of Enron Corp. and the related challenges faced by the unregulated utilities sector during the 2001-2003 power market crisis in the U.S.

Table 1

All infrastructure default summary
Year Total defaults* Rated defaults Investment-grade defaults Speculative-grade defaults Default rate (%) Investment-grade default rate (%) Speculative-grade default rate (%)
1981 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1982 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1983 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1987 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1988 5 5 0 5 1.62 0.00 11.36
1989 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1990 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1991 3 3 2 1 1.03 0.78 2.94
1992 5 5 0 5 1.61 0.00 12.82
1993 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1994 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1995 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1996 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1997 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1998 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1999 1 1 0 1 0.17 0.00 1.27
2000 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2001 12 11 10 1 1.47 1.54 1.05
2002 20 19 7 12 2.27 0.97 10.43
2003 17 13 1 12 1.57 0.15 7.14
2004 2 2 0 2 0.21 0.00 1.03
2005 10 10 2 8 1.02 0.26 3.90
2006 1 1 1 0 0.10 0.12 0.00
2007 2 2 0 2 0.19 0.00 0.90
2008 4 4 1 3 0.36 0.12 1.26
2009 7 7 0 7 0.61 0.00 2.93
2010 5 5 0 5 0.43 0.00 1.88
2011 8 7 0 7 0.58 0.00 2.48
2012 8 8 0 8 0.66 0.00 2.82
2013 6 6 0 6 0.47 0.00 2.14
2014 7 7 0 7 0.52 0.00 2.33
2015 1 1 0 1 0.07 0.00 0.30
2016 6 6 0 6 0.42 0.00 1.69
2017 7 5 0 5 0.34 0.00 1.39
2018 6 5 0 5 0.34 0.00 1.36
2019 3 3 2 1 0.20 0.18 0.28
2020 10 9 0 9 0.61 0.00 2.47
2021 1 1 0 1 0.07 0.00 0.27
2022 4 4 0 4 0.29 0.00 1.12
*Includes defaults that were observed in the same year as the initial rating. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Infrastructure upgrades in 2022 fell slightly to 65 (20 IG and 45 SG) from 66 (25 IG and 41 SG) in 2021, while downgrades fell sharply to 85 (51 IG and 34 SG) from 151 (96 IG and 55 SG). (See chart 2.)

Chart 2

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In 2022, oil and gas infrastructure saw the most upgrades, driven by improvements in the U.S. domestic energy production sector. The power segment had the most downgrades due to extreme market volatility in power markets both in the U.S. and Europe, combined with refinancing challenges faced by speculative-grade U.S. coal generators. Other downgrade drivers related to regulated utilities were rising capital spending and high commodity prices (for more information, see "Regulated Utilities: Credit Quality Should Stabilize," published July 18, 2023). In the U.K., there was a continued downward trend on our ratings of private finance initiative (PFI) hospital projects whose below-target service and maintenance quality levels have resulted in strained relationships with National Health Service Trusts (see chart 3).

Chart 3

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The infrastructure sector peaked at 1,486 ratings in 2018, from a low of 290 in 1990 (see chart 4). The majority of ratings remain investment grade, from a high of 95% in 1981 to 74% at the start of 2022.

The lowest rating category, 'CCC/C', usually sees the most default activity. At the start of 2022, there were 32 infrastructure entities rated in the 'CCC/C' category, one below the all-time high of 33 at the start of 2021. As of Jan. 1, 2023, that number had dropped to 25. The largest sector in terms of ratings has always been utilities, with oil and gas rising to the second-largest sector since 2011 (see chart 5)

Chart 4

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Chart 5

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This study covers infrastructure ratings in utilities (covering both regulated and unregulated entities), oil and gas (mostly midstream issuers), transportation, power (independent power producers and project financings), social infrastructure, and other industries covered under our corporate and project finance methodologies. The study also includes a small number of infrastructure issues rated under U.S. public finance and international public finance methodologies.

Part of our analysis is a high frequency of transitions to 'NR' (not rated) because the study covers issue ratings; issues tend to be paid off and, thus, move to not rated. This stands in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.

Regional Trends

The U.S. and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) have the most infrastructure ratings by region, with 480 and 465, respectively. Canada, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America form a lower tier with between 139 and 105 ratings each (see chart 6). All regions are mostly investment grade, ranging from 82% for EMEA down to 56% for Latin America. By total speculative-grade ratings, the U.S. leads with 144, followed by EMEA with 82.

Chart 6

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Subsector Default Trends

By subsector, utilities (notably those that have unregulated activities) account for the most rated infrastructure defaults since 1981 (49%), followed by power (19%) (see chart 7). Combined, these subsectors account for 58% of annual rated infrastructure issue defaults.

Defaults in the power segment in particular appear overrepresented--power accounts for 8% of all historical infrastructure issue ratings captured in this study. As mentioned before, this is due to the spike in defaults during the 2001-2003 merchant power crisis in the U.S., and more generally due to a higher share of speculative-grade entities and projects.

Chart 7

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Overall default rates have been consistently low since 2015. Before that, there were periods of credit stress, especially in 2001 and from 2009 to 2014 (see chart 8). Only corporate infrastructure projects saw defaults in 2022, with a trailing 12-month default rate of 0.6% for the Jan. 1, 2022, static pool.

Chart 8

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We subdivide infrastructure ratings into corporate issues and project finance issues. Corporate issues are the far larger section, comprising all utilities and most oil and gas. Project finance includes all social projects as well as a majority of power issues (see chart 9).

Chart 9

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Historical Default Cycles

In general, infrastructure's relative peak default rates aligned with those of nonfinancial corporates during the 2001 recession, although key drivers behind the spike were quite different--respectively, the power market crisis in the U.S. versus the burst of the dotcom bubble. By contrast, the infrastructure sector made it through the 2008-2009 global financial crisis relatively unscathed, with a peak default rate under 1%, compared with 6% for nonfinancial corporates (see chart 10).

On a trailing 12-month basis, the overall infrastructure default rate was higher than the nonfinancial default rate only from December 2005 through November 2006. This was largely because of the Dec. 21, 2005, bankruptcy filing of Calpine Corp. (a corporate infrastructure power developer and energy merchant company), which covered five defaulting instruments in our dataset.

The lower infrastructure default rate over time reflects its higher average credit quality translating into a consistently lower proportion of issues rated in the 'B' and 'CCC'/'C' categories compared with nonfinancial corporates.

Chart 10

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Cumulative default rates are a historical summary of rating performance. For example, cumulative default rates for the power subsegment reflect the exceptionally high default rate amid the energy crisis in the early 2000s. Since the end of that period, many ratings have been repositioned, and we have incorporated any analytical lessons into our power ratings.

The distribution of ratings within a rating category influences the weighted average default rates (e.g., within the broader 'BBB' rating category, the share of 'BBB-' versus 'BBB' versus 'BBB+') (see tables 2-4). Because 'BBB-' ratings have a materially higher default rate expectation than 'BBB+', it somewhat limits the perfect comparability of default rates by category. Also, the sample sizes of infrastructure subsegments vary.

Table 2

Cumulative default rates, infrastructure and nonfinancial corporate, 1981-2022
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 5 10 15
All infrastructure
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05
A 0.09 0.49 0.75 0.86
BBB 0.13 1.09 2.00 2.74
BB 0.26 2.94 4.33 4.74
B 1.66 7.05 9.76 9.95
CCC/C 13.81 28.51 31.11 31.11
Investment grade 0.10 0.74 1.29 1.69
Speculative grade 1.82 6.32 8.22 8.53
All rated 0.45 1.85 2.65 3.02
Nonfinancial corporate
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.37
AA 0.00 0.09 0.31 0.55
A 0.03 0.29 1.05 1.75
BBB 0.12 1.34 3.05 4.19
BB 0.59 6.50 11.94 15.01
B 3.15 16.89 23.76 27.17
CCC/C 26.74 47.91 52.02 53.84
Investment grade 0.07 0.79 1.91 2.72
Speculative grade 3.73 14.79 20.89 24.03
All rated 1.91 7.73 11.15 12.93
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 3

Cumulative default rates, corporate infrastructure and project finance, 1981-2022
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 5 10 15
Utilities
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07
A 0.10 0.53 0.78 0.82
BBB 0.16 1.07 1.84 2.43
BB 0.07 2.27 2.88 3.10
B 2.33 9.90 10.61 10.61
CCC/C 18.69 35.15 39.80 39.80
Investment grade 0.12 0.72 1.16 1.44
Speculative grade 2.40 7.21 8.24 8.38
All rated 0.38 1.47 1.98 2.25
Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.06 0.35 0.43 0.69
BBB 0.09 1.34 3.20 4.76
BB 0.42 2.36 3.38 3.38
B 1.02 5.63 9.08 9.64
CCC/C 10.61 22.23 24.05 24.05
Investment grade 0.07 0.80 1.74 2.52
Speculative grade 1.34 4.97 7.05 7.29
All rated 0.45 2.02 3.26 3.92
Project finance
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.43 1.29 2.01
BBB 0.07 0.92 1.33 1.82
BB 0.33 4.44 7.26 8.37
B 2.13 6.70 10.56 10.56
CCC/C 11.04 26.88 26.88 26.88
Investment grade 0.05 0.79 1.28 1.79
Speculative grade 1.75 6.92 9.83 10.51
All rated 0.62 2.86 4.16 4.72
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 4

Average cumulative default rates (1981- 2022) (%)
--Time horizon (years)--
All infrastructure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Investment grade 0.10 0.27 0.44 0.60 0.74 0.87 0.99 1.11 1.19 1.29 1.39 1.48 1.56 1.62 1.69
Speculative grade 1.81 3.26 4.47 5.54 6.28 6.85 7.26 7.64 7.99 8.19 8.28 8.38 8.41 8.45 8.50
All rated 0.44 0.87 1.24 1.58 1.84 2.05 2.23 2.39 2.52 2.64 2.74 2.82 2.89 2.96 3.02
Project finance
Investment grade 0.05 0.21 0.38 0.60 0.79 0.90 1.01 1.09 1.14 1.28 1.49 1.66 1.79 1.79 1.79
Speculative grade 1.75 3.23 4.69 5.89 6.92 7.67 8.27 8.92 9.54 9.83 9.93 10.05 10.18 10.33 10.51
All rated 0.62 1.23 1.84 2.38 2.86 3.18 3.46 3.73 3.97 4.16 4.33 4.49 4.61 4.66 4.72
Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities
Investment grade 0.07 0.24 0.44 0.63 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.38 1.56 1.74 1.88 2.03 2.19 2.37 2.52
Speculative grade 1.34 2.54 3.44 4.27 4.97 5.56 6.03 6.41 6.76 7.05 7.16 7.29 7.29 7.29 7.29
All rated 0.45 0.92 1.32 1.70 2.02 2.33 2.59 2.83 3.04 3.26 3.39 3.53 3.66 3.80 3.92
Utilities
Investment grade 0.12 0.29 0.45 0.59 0.72 0.82 0.92 1.03 1.10 1.16 1.23 1.29 1.34 1.39 1.44
Speculative grade 2.40 4.13 5.44 6.64 7.21 7.59 7.82 7.99 8.18 8.24 8.31 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38
All rated 0.38 0.74 1.03 1.29 1.47 1.61 1.72 1.84 1.92 1.98 2.05 2.11 2.15 2.20 2.25
Oil and gas
Investment grade 0.03 0.10 0.21 0.33 0.41 0.50 0.59 0.69 0.75 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81
Speculative grade 0.74 1.48 2.08 2.58 3.04 3.47 3.66 3.76 3.88 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01
All rated 0.30 0.61 0.89 1.14 1.36 1.56 1.68 1.79 1.86 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94
Power
Investment grade 0.21 0.89 1.61 2.30 2.85 3.55 4.20 4.77 5.40 6.10 6.71 7.38 8.13 8.96 9.67
Speculative grade 1.84 3.42 4.54 5.68 6.73 7.57 8.25 8.90 9.46 9.90 10.14 10.43 10.43 10.43 10.43
All rated 1.01 2.13 3.04 3.94 4.73 5.49 6.15 6.75 7.36 7.95 8.41 8.94 9.42 9.96 10.43
Transportation
Investment grade 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.32 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45
Speculative grade 1.45 2.60 3.65 4.23 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56
All rated 0.26 0.55 0.81 1.00 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16
Social infrastructure
Investment grade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53
Speculative grade 0.51 1.08 1.71 2.42 3.21 4.09 5.11 6.32 7.77 7.77 7.77 7.77 7.77 7.77 7.77
All rated 0.08 0.16 0.25 0.34 0.45 0.57 0.71 0.87 1.05 1.26 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51
Other
Investment grade 0.08 0.22 0.36 0.55 0.76 0.92 1.09 1.20 1.27 1.39 1.59 1.81 1.96 1.96 1.96
Speculative grade 2.93 5.28 7.67 9.59 11.03 12.10 13.06 14.02 14.86 15.29 15.44 15.60 15.77 15.95 16.16
All rated 0.81 1.53 2.28 2.95 3.51 3.93 4.33 4.70 5.00 5.22 5.41 5.60 5.76 5.82 5.88
Nonfinancial corporate
Investment grade 0.07 0.19 0.35 0.55 0.79 1.03 1.26 1.48 1.70 1.91 2.11 2.27 2.42 2.56 2.72
Speculative grade 3.73 7.25 10.28 12.76 14.79 16.44 17.81 18.95 19.97 20.89 21.66 22.32 22.94 23.49 24.03
All rated 1.91 3.74 5.31 6.63 7.73 8.64 9.40 10.05 10.62 11.15 11.60 11.97 12.31 12.62 12.93
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Among defaulting issues, there is generally a positive correlation between initial ratings and time to default--meaning higher initial ratings often have longer times to default (see chart 11). The shortest time to default in our dataset was for a GenOn Energy Inc. issue, which defaulted in June 2017, just 26 days after we initially rated it 'CCC+'. Conversely, the longest time to default was for a Public Service Co. of New Hampshire issue, which defaulted in January 1988, nearly 26 years after receiving an initial rating of 'A'.

Chart 11

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We define the marginal default rate as the percentage of rated projects that default within a given number of years. On average, the marginal default rate for infrastructure issues is highest in the first three years and then steadily declines (see table 5). This is notably the case for speculative-grade ratings, while investment-grade ratings tend to have persistently low marginal default rates.

Table 5

Marginal default rates: All infrastructure and nonfinancial corporate
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
All infrastructure
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.05
BBB 0.13 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.15 0.17
BB 0.26 0.43 0.79 0.79 0.69 0.45 0.26 0.32 0.26 0.14
B 1.66 1.98 1.42 1.30 0.90 0.83 0.60 0.50 0.63 0.39
CCC/C 13.81 8.53 4.91 3.44 1.25 1.01 1.45 0.79 0.43 0.00
Investment grade 0.10 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.10
Speculative grade 1.82 1.50 1.26 1.12 0.79 0.60 0.44 0.41 0.39 0.21
All rated 0.45 0.43 0.38 0.34 0.27 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.13 0.12
Nonfinancial corporate
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.07
AA 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.05
A 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.17
BBB 0.12 0.21 0.27 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.32
BB 0.59 1.35 1.58 1.61 1.54 1.43 1.27 1.21 1.09 0.97
B 3.15 4.44 4.18 3.52 2.87 2.35 1.92 1.54 1.41 1.33
CCC/C 26.74 14.02 8.66 5.36 4.33 2.14 2.21 1.37 1.30 1.14
Investment grade 0.07 0.12 0.15 0.21 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22
Speculative grade 3.73 3.66 3.27 2.76 2.34 1.93 1.64 1.38 1.26 1.15
All rated 1.91 1.86 1.63 1.39 1.18 0.99 0.84 0.71 0.64 0.59
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Historical Rating Action Cycles

As in most sectors, historical rating actions in infrastructure are more often negative than positive (see chart 12). Downgrades outnumbered upgrades 3,615 to 2,649 from 1981 through 2022. By year, downgrades exceeded upgrades in 28 of those 42 years (see table 6).

Chart 12

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Table 6

Infrastructure rating movement total (1981-2022)
Upgrades Downgrades Difference Downgrades/Upgrades
Power 208 394 -186 1.9
Transportation 161 280 -119 1.7
Utilities 1573 1954 -381 1.2
Oil and gas 453 512 -59 1.1
Social infrastructure 66 107 -41 1.6
Other 188 361 -173 1.9
Total 2649 3608 -959 1.4
Note: Does not include defaults. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

The number of annual downgrades peaked in 2020 during the pandemic-related global recession at 238--slightly more than the previous high of 214 in 2002.

Infrastructure downgrades accelerated in the early 2000s amid both a U.S. recession and as utilities and merchant power entities experienced credit stress during a period of power market deregulation in the U.S. From 2000 to 2004, infrastructure downgrades plus defaults totaled 747, compared with 229 upgrades.

Infrastructure upgrades peaked in 2007 at 155. The second-highest total was 141 upgrades in 2017.

The period with the highest number of upgrades minus downgrades was from 2006 to 2008. This followed the period with the lowest number of upgrades minus downgrades, from 1998 to 2005.

Table 7

Project finance and corporate infrastructure rating movement
--Upgrades-- --Downgrades-- --Defaults--
Number Average annual % Number Average annual % Number Average annual %
Utilities 1573 8.3 1954 10.3 73 0.4
Project finance 375 6.3 671 11.3 37 0.6
Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities 701 8.0 983 11.3 39 0.4
All infrastructure 2649 7.9 3608 10.7 149 0.4
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Rating Transitions

Transition tables detail ratings changes over time. Each cell in the table represents the weighted average percentage of ratings that maintain a rating or transition to a different rating during a given time horizon. The rows indicate the rating at the start of the period, and the columns show how those ratings are distributed at the end of the period (see table 8). The highest values in the transition matrix are along the diagonal, indicating that a high proportion of these issue ratings do not change during a given period. The proportion of ratings that have transitioned higher are to the left of the diagonal, and the proportion of ratings that have transitioned lower are to the right.

The 'A' and 'BBB' categories are typically the most stable. While the 'AAA' and 'AA' category are more likely to transition to a lower rating category (but far away from default), we note the small sample sizes of issues in these categories.

In table 8, note the large percentages of withdrawn ratings (not rated, or NR) as time increases. This is because issues naturally tend to be paid off and thus move to not rated. This is in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.

When analyzing rating stability or the percentage of unchanged ratings (on the top right to bottom left diagonal), the number needs to be put in context and would be meaningfully higher if one excluded the high percentage of infrastructure issue ratings that we have withdrawn, as indicated in the NR column. For example, after five years, over 38% of infrastructure issue ratings in the 'BBB' category have been withdrawn, compared with just over 22% of nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings in the same category (see table 9).

Even if we believe the bulk of the withdrawn ratings would have remained in the same category, we cannot exclude some could have moved lower or higher. The result is less precise comparisons between the transition tables of infrastructure issue ratings and nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings.

Table 8

Infrastructure average transition rates (1981-2022) (%)
Rating AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 83.85 7.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.95
AA 0.36 83.55 8.19 0.53 0.14 0.07 0.00 0.00 7.16
A 0.03 1.02 85.43 5.59 0.13 0.04 0.05 0.09 7.61
BBB 0.00 0.01 2.48 85.49 2.67 0.23 0.25 0.13 8.74
BB 0.00 0.00 0.12 6.55 72.78 6.94 0.96 0.26 12.38
B 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.90 8.92 67.22 7.07 1.66 14.04
CCC/C 0.53 0.00 0.53 0.00 2.30 10.44 54.69 13.81 17.70
Three years
AAA 55.93 14.82 1.78 1.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.89
AA 0.78 59.42 16.54 1.99 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.83
A 0.06 2.17 63.01 11.79 0.59 0.23 0.09 0.28 21.76
BBB 0.01 0.04 5.84 63.03 4.41 1.14 0.62 0.68 24.24
BB 0.03 0.00 0.22 12.49 40.55 8.86 2.19 1.49 34.18
B 0.11 0.00 0.32 3.52 14.67 30.76 8.25 5.21 37.17
CCC/C 0.40 0.00 0.00 1.20 3.61 10.84 16.06 26.10 41.77
Five years
AAA 34.69 17.04 1.83 4.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.58
AA 0.93 41.77 19.38 3.08 0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.22
A 0.09 2.49 47.18 13.62 0.75 0.32 0.14 0.54 34.87
BBB 0.03 0.05 7.27 46.90 4.43 1.45 0.74 1.17 37.96
BB 0.06 0.00 0.49 13.60 23.79 5.97 1.85 3.02 51.22
B 0.00 0.00 0.42 4.90 12.49 13.27 4.36 7.35 57.20
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.98 1.54 7.71 5.29 30.40 53.08
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 9

Nonfinancial corporate average transition rates (1981-2022) (%)
Rating AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 87.07 8.34 0.83 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.61
AA 0.52 87.01 7.68 0.65 0.09 0.12 0.00 0.00 3.94
A 0.03 1.15 88.34 6.20 0.32 0.15 0.02 0.03 3.78
BBB 0.01 0.04 2.74 87.65 3.53 0.42 0.08 0.12 5.39
BB 0.01 0.01 0.09 4.27 78.43 6.91 0.51 0.59 9.17
B 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.12 4.30 74.64 5.01 3.15 12.70
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.16 0.38 13.42 44.48 26.74 14.73
Three years
AAA 66.55 19.10 3.50 0.28 0.35 0.07 0.00 0.00 10.15
AA 1.18 66.31 18.37 2.38 0.53 0.28 0.01 0.03 10.90
A 0.05 2.67 69.61 14.54 1.24 0.53 0.07 0.11 11.19
BBB 0.02 0.13 6.79 68.70 7.30 1.58 0.24 0.62 14.61
BB 0.01 0.03 0.36 9.61 49.82 11.99 1.20 3.55 23.44
B 0.00 0.02 0.14 0.51 8.44 41.98 5.59 11.72 31.59
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.48 1.41 14.76 9.76 45.45 28.05
Five years
AAA 52.57 24.52 5.43 1.13 0.56 0.07 0.00 0.00 15.72
AA 1.49 50.48 24.80 4.33 0.81 0.49 0.03 0.09 17.49
A 0.05 3.47 56.24 19.10 2.04 0.85 0.11 0.30 17.84
BBB 0.03 0.20 8.95 56.40 8.29 2.22 0.32 1.42 22.18
BB 0.01 0.04 0.70 11.59 34.63 11.90 1.24 6.74 33.15
B 0.01 0.01 0.16 1.07 8.95 25.19 3.41 17.79 43.40
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.68 2.32 11.00 2.54 49.57 33.84
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 10

Infrastructure average transition rates (1981-2022) (%)
Rating AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC C D NR
One year
AAA 83.85 4.86 2.14 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.95
AA+ 2.84 73.86 6.82 5.11 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.51
AA 0.00 2.72 78.55 6.34 3.42 1.01 0.40 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.85
AA- 0.00 0.00 3.90 76.35 9.98 1.98 0.34 0.07 0.62 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.56
A+ 0.06 0.00 0.12 4.92 71.28 10.79 2.76 1.14 0.06 0.18 0.06 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 8.33
A 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.22 4.17 76.89 7.50 2.31 0.74 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.12 7.59
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.43 4.29 78.65 7.24 1.27 0.41 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.07 7.35
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.82 5.44 74.71 8.46 0.96 0.19 0.19 0.02 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.16 8.65
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.11 1.17 6.56 75.15 6.50 0.85 0.37 0.43 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.09 8.49
BBB- 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.26 1.09 7.21 75.25 3.87 1.38 0.74 0.07 0.15 0.09 0.13 0.11 0.02 0.28 0.02 0.13 9.11
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.20 2.50 10.78 61.21 6.38 3.42 1.64 1.12 0.07 0.00 0.39 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.00 11.90
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.29 2.26 9.26 63.68 5.98 2.12 2.41 0.73 0.29 0.15 0.07 0.22 0.00 0.66 11.74
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 2.22 3.02 7.94 57.30 9.29 2.54 1.90 0.40 0.48 0.48 0.32 0.08 0.16 13.65
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.44 0.99 1.54 1.76 10.98 51.15 11.20 4.50 1.21 0.66 0.55 0.22 0.11 0.77 13.61
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.58 0.58 1.73 4.33 12.41 45.17 11.98 3.90 1.59 0.14 0.29 0.14 1.44 15.30
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.79 1.39 2.38 14.48 47.82 11.11 2.78 2.18 0.20 0.00 3.57 13.10
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.88 1.76 1.76 13.66 43.17 4.41 7.05 1.76 0.88 4.41 19.38
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 1.44 0.00 2.88 5.76 5.04 38.13 12.95 7.19 0.72 9.35 15.11
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.41 0.00 0.00 3.41 2.27 12.50 27.27 12.50 3.41 17.05 18.18
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 1.23 1.23 2.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.70 0.00 29.63 2.47 39.51 16.05
C 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.67 0.00 3.33 0.00 0.00 3.33 0.00 30.00 26.67 20.00
Three years
AAA 55.93 10.28 4.15 0.40 1.78 0.00 0.00 1.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.89
AA+ 4.22 41.57 11.14 11.14 2.41 0.90 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.71
AA 0.63 4.49 49.37 12.21 4.49 4.18 2.71 1.04 0.21 0.52 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.00
AA- 0.07 0.35 6.35 47.18 15.66 4.58 2.82 0.56 1.55 0.35 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.45
A+ 0.07 0.00 1.37 7.48 37.45 16.45 7.35 2.80 1.43 0.33 0.52 0.33 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 23.99
A 0.13 0.00 0.30 1.17 8.26 46.22 13.82 5.33 2.13 0.50 0.10 0.30 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.37 21.08
A- 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.07 1.13 9.22 49.42 12.99 3.57 0.81 0.44 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.25 21.42
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 2.04 11.27 43.79 13.07 3.47 0.55 0.23 0.21 0.34 0.18 0.21 0.29 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.05 0.65 23.33
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.53 3.37 12.11 44.53 10.59 1.65 0.96 0.83 0.45 0.24 0.26 0.22 0.08 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.51 23.41
BBB- 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.21 0.71 3.96 13.07 43.55 4.79 2.29 1.56 0.66 0.57 0.50 0.26 0.45 0.14 0.17 0.02 0.90 26.02
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.07 0.80 4.95 14.93 27.24 8.89 4.22 3.20 1.31 0.73 0.66 0.36 0.51 0.29 0.29 0.44 30.95
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.32 1.54 6.64 10.04 28.42 7.77 3.16 2.75 1.86 0.32 0.40 0.32 0.40 0.00 1.70 34.01
BB- 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.46 1.20 4.98 4.98 7.75 21.59 7.10 3.78 3.78 1.01 1.01 0.74 0.28 0.09 2.58 38.47
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.12 0.12 1.81 2.54 4.35 3.99 10.75 17.87 9.54 5.19 2.90 1.33 0.97 0.48 0.24 3.50 34.18
B 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.16 1.11 2.06 2.38 3.17 8.25 8.41 13.02 7.78 3.81 1.75 0.79 0.63 0.00 5.08 41.11
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.23 0.45 1.35 0.68 3.15 3.83 3.83 10.14 15.54 8.11 1.58 3.83 0.68 0.23 8.56 37.16
CCC+ 1.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 1.08 3.78 0.54 4.32 9.19 9.73 1.08 1.62 0.00 0.54 12.97 53.51
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.78 0.00 0.78 3.10 0.78 4.65 7.75 0.78 8.53 6.98 8.53 2.33 25.58 28.68
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.00 1.33 4.00 8.00 5.33 2.67 22.67 46.67
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 1.25 0.00 2.50 0.00 1.25 3.75 0.00 2.50 0.00 1.25 1.25 52.50 31.25
C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.45 48.28 41.38
Five years
AAA 34.69 10.55 4.26 2.23 1.83 0.00 0.00 3.25 1.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.58
AA+ 3.57 24.03 7.14 13.64 4.87 1.62 1.62 0.32 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.86
AA 0.98 3.80 31.09 12.17 5.11 5.54 4.46 0.87 0.98 0.87 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.93
AA- 0.30 0.15 5.44 31.84 14.17 5.97 4.77 2.16 1.27 0.45 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.11
A+ 0.14 0.21 2.10 5.82 20.18 14.51 10.16 3.85 2.10 0.42 0.35 0.49 0.07 0.14 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 38.61
A 0.14 0.00 0.62 1.67 8.73 29.81 13.04 6.88 3.04 0.65 0.36 0.36 0.07 0.07 0.04 0.11 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.69 33.65
A- 0.03 0.00 0.11 0.33 1.70 10.44 32.61 12.75 4.67 1.35 0.55 0.05 0.05 0.22 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.03 0.49 34.34
BBB+ 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 2.99 12.55 27.80 12.23 3.70 0.83 0.27 0.62 0.30 0.44 0.24 0.21 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 36.32
BBB 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.66 4.89 12.60 28.23 10.22 1.63 1.20 0.63 0.48 0.41 0.50 0.25 0.11 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.93 36.80
BBB- 0.00 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.51 0.90 5.95 12.62 26.36 3.68 2.29 1.93 0.85 0.57 0.51 0.51 0.28 0.44 0.21 0.00 1.47 40.71
BB+ 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.49 0.82 8.09 11.37 14.23 5.23 5.23 2.53 1.06 0.74 0.33 0.74 0.25 0.08 0.08 2.70 45.54
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 1.01 3.12 8.25 7.33 14.39 5.68 2.47 1.10 1.65 0.09 0.27 0.27 0.46 0.00 2.57 51.15
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.32 1.39 0.86 4.06 5.03 4.39 8.98 4.60 2.03 2.35 1.18 0.86 0.32 0.43 0.43 3.96 58.72
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.28 0.28 1.53 4.46 4.46 4.60 6.69 7.25 4.18 4.46 1.26 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 5.16 53.56
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.36 0.18 2.50 2.50 2.50 4.29 4.46 3.57 4.11 3.57 1.25 0.54 1.07 0.00 0.18 7.50 61.25
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.51 1.26 1.77 2.78 3.79 1.26 5.05 5.05 5.05 1.01 2.27 0.25 0.25 11.11 58.08
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.89 0.00 0.00 1.26 0.00 4.40 5.66 1.89 0.63 0.00 1.26 0.00 15.09 67.92
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 1.60 4.00 4.00 0.80 1.60 2.40 3.20 0.00 30.40 47.20
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.41 2.94 1.47 2.94 1.47 0.00 30.88 54.41
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.70 0.00 1.35 4.05 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.41 32.43
C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 46.43
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Focusing on the 'BBB' category, which is generally the largest infrastructure rating category, allows for comparison among infrastructure subsectors (see table 11). Social infrastructure ratings have historically been the most likely to remain in the 'BBB' category across one-year, three-year, and five-year time horizons--in part due to the greater revenue stability conferred by availability payments, which are more common in this subsector.

Table 11

'BBB' category transition rates by subsector (1981-2022)
% Transition
Rating AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR Higher Lower Total
One year
Oil and gas 0.00 0.00 0.86 87.66 2.96 0.18 0.00 0.00 8.33 0.86 3.14 4.01
Utilities 0.00 0.00 3.51 84.36 2.05 0.11 0.25 0.16 9.55 3.51 2.58 6.09
Power 0.00 0.00 0.77 88.19 4.17 0.54 0.54 0.23 5.56 0.77 5.48 6.25
Social 0.00 0.27 1.90 90.09 3.39 0.41 0.14 0.00 3.80 2.17 3.93 6.11
Transportation 0.00 0.00 1.95 86.75 2.89 0.42 0.42 0.00 7.56 1.95 3.74 5.69
Other 0.00 0.00 0.84 80.58 4.56 0.60 0.24 0.24 12.95 0.84 5.64 6.47
Three years
Oil and gas 0.00 0.00 1.72 70.09 5.41 1.41 0.15 0.15 21.07 1.72 7.12 8.84
Utilities 0.00 0.00 8.26 60.66 3.12 0.62 0.42 0.72 26.20 8.26 4.88 13.14
Power 0.00 0.00 1.04 68.95 6.42 3.12 1.04 1.82 17.61 1.04 12.40 13.44
Social 0.00 0.78 5.12 74.07 8.23 1.09 0.31 0.00 10.40 5.90 9.63 15.53
Transportation 0.00 0.00 5.20 63.00 6.58 0.69 1.18 0.39 22.96 5.20 8.83 14.03
Other 0.13 0.00 2.01 50.00 5.15 3.02 2.51 0.88 36.31 2.14 11.56 13.69
Five years
Oil and gas 0.00 0.00 2.21 57.83 5.53 2.39 0.58 0.23 31.22 2.21 8.74 10.95
Utilities 0.00 0.00 10.06 43.79 2.79 0.65 0.54 1.13 41.05 10.06 5.10 15.16
Power 0.00 0.00 0.80 54.27 7.55 3.98 1.49 3.48 28.43 0.80 16.50 17.30
Social 0.00 1.10 7.92 62.43 11.42 1.10 0.55 0.00 15.47 9.02 13.08 22.10
Transportation 0.00 0.00 6.60 45.74 7.32 2.40 0.60 0.96 36.37 6.60 11.28 17.89
Other 0.39 0.00 2.49 30.54 4.46 2.36 2.23 1.70 55.83 2.88 10.75 13.63
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Gini Coefficients

The Gini coefficient--a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--is a measure of the relative ability of ratings to differentiate default risk. Infrastructure Lorenz curves vary in their similarity to ideal curves, and Gini coefficients fall within a wide range. Over one-year, three-year, and five-year horizons, the coefficients for infrastructure as a whole--at 78%, 68%, and 63%, respectively--show a strong relationship between lower ratings and the propensity to default (see table 12).

Table 12

All infrastructure Gini coefficients (%)
One-year 77.3
Three-year 68.4
Five-year 62.7
Three-year
Social infrastructure 99.7
Transportation 83.8
Utilities 64.7
Power 44.9
Oil and gas 65.9
Other 78.3
Canada 99.5
Asia-Pacific 65.4
U.S. and tax havens 63.2
EMEA 66.3
Latin America 62.5
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

However, the relationship varies across infrastructure subsectors. To compare, we use a three-year horizon for the Gini coefficient because it is the longest period in which a sizable number of issues remain outstanding (either prior to redemption or any other reason for rating withdrawals).

Social infrastructure has the highest three-year Gini coefficient at nearly 100%--extremely high. The transportation subsector has a high coefficient of 84% and the other subsector has one of 78%. The utilities and oil and gas subsectors have moderately high coefficients at 65% and 66%, respectively. Meanwhile, the power subsector has a low coefficient of 45%--indicating a high frequency of defaults among higher-rated issues, largely explained by the extreme downgrade activity during the 2001-2003 U.S. power crisis.

While the differences are not as extreme, the coefficients also vary across regions. Canada has an extremely high coefficient at nearly 100%. Meanwhile, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, the U.S. and tax havens, and Latin America each have moderately high coefficients at 66%, 65%, 63%, and 62%, respectively.

Points along the Lorenz curve represent different ratings, starting with issues in the 'CCC'/'C' category on the far left of the x-axis (see chart 13). The first point indicates about 33% of transitions to default were from issues rated 'CCC'/'C'.

At higher ratings, the number of defaults generally decreases, yielding points that continue to climb as one moves right along the x-axis through the remainder of the rating scale. The Lorenz curve generally turns sharply to the right at the investment-grade ratings because of the low proportion of defaults from investment-grade issues. Table 13 shows the coordinates of the Lorenz curve in chart 13.

Chart 13

image

Table 13

Infrastructure three-year Lorenz curve values
Y-axis: cumulative proportion of defaults X-axis: cumulative proportion of ratings
AAA 100.00 100.00
AA+ 100.00 98.36
AA 100.00 97.29
AA- 100.00 94.19
A+ 100.00 89.60
A 99.24 84.62
A- 96.46 74.90
BBB+ 93.94 61.77
BBB 87.63 49.36
BBB- 81.31 33.44
BB+ 71.72 19.72
BB 70.20 15.27
BB- 64.90 11.28
B+ 57.83 7.77
B 50.51 5.09
B- 42.42 3.05
CCC/C 32.83 1.61
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Recovery Rates

Ultimate recovery rates for defaulted infrastructure debt instruments, which include bank debt and bonds in both corporate infrastructure and project finance, average 76.5%--much higher than the 60.1% average for nonfinancial corporates (see chart 14).

Chart 14

image

Many of the infrastructure corporates and projects that achieved the highest recoveries exhibited both high asset quality and low industry risk. Recoveries for infrastructure corporates help lift average recoveries for infrastructure overall. Furthermore, regulated utilities, a subset of corporate infrastructure, specifically show a tendency toward above-average recovery rates (particularly senior unsecured bonds).

Within infrastructure, corporate infrastructure (excluding project finance) displays an average recovery of 80.2% (from 339 instruments), and more than half of the defaulted instruments recovered par or greater. This average recovery for corporate infrastructure is notably higher than the average recoveries from project finance (55.9% from 60 instruments) and from nonfinancial corporates (60.1% from over 4,600 instruments).

Average recoveries from project finance instruments are considerably lower than for corporate infrastructure and are closer to the average recoveries of nonfinancial corporates. However, the average recovery from project finance is based on a much smaller sample of 60 instruments, and the distribution of these recoveries is more varied, with a nearly equal number of recoveries at the high end as at the low end. The projects with the lowest recoveries typically exhibited high market risk or encountered technology issues.

Our dataset of recoveries for infrastructure corporate and project finance includes defaulted instruments that were resolved through a debt restructuring, a distressed exchange, or a liquidation and sale of assets. To calculate recovery rates on defaulted projects, we relied on public documents, court filings, and company reports. Because we used public information, we were unable to calculate recovery rates on all defaulted projects. Most of the recovery rates we were able to calculate were from legal jurisdictions, such as the U.S., that published an abundance of post-default data. These recoveries are calculated on a nominal basis and have not been discounted for the time between default and emergence.

In addition to calculating recovery rates as an average of instrument recoveries, weighted by the number of instruments, we also looked at recoveries on a dollar-weighted basis. For the dollar-weighted averages, we calculated the nominal sum of debt recovered from the pool of defaulted instruments, divided by the total of defaulted debt in the sample for that instrument type.

Dollar-weighted recoveries for infrastructure tend to be lower, on average, than the instrument-weighted averages. However, the 67.4% dollar-weighted average recovery for the infrastructure sector overall remains higher than the 56.9% dollar-weighted average for nonfinancial corporates.

This infrastructure dataset includes 76 defaulted obligors, affecting nearly 400 debt instruments. While the dataset includes obligors from the emerging and developed markets, almost 92% of the instruments included in the recovery dataset are from U.S.-based obligors. These include entities that defaulted from 1988 to 2022 and emerged from default before Dec. 31, 2022. The count of instruments includes senior debt, senior unsecured debt, and subordinated debt. Many obligors have defaulted on a variety of instruments, and some have defaulted more than once, causing the number of observed instrument defaults to far exceed the number of defaulters.

Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study periodically includes the addition of defaulted instruments from prior years, where sufficient information on the ultimate recovery value has subsequently become available.

Recovery By Instrument Type

By debt type, senior secured and subordinated infrastructure debt shows average recovery rates that are very close to the average recoveries of nonfinancial corporates.

In contrast, senior unsecured debt from infrastructure has a markedly higher average recovery (80.0%) than that of nonfinancial corporates (51.7%) (see chart 15). This reflects, in part, the high concentration of regulated utilities among infrastructure corporates, combined with the high recovery values, bearing in mind the benefit of having a regulatory asset base and often, the absence of material senior debt in the structure. While the utilities sector accounts for more than half of the instruments in the pool of infrastructure recoveries, it accounts for closer to 5% of the pool of nonfinancial corporates.

Senior secured debt (which includes bank debt along with senior secured bonds) from the infrastructure sector shows an average recovery of 77.1%, which is near the 78.6% average recovery for nonfinancial corporates. Meanwhile, subordinated debt from the infrastructure sector averages 23.1%, which is below the 32% average recovery of subordinated debt from the nonfinancial sectors.

Chart 15

image

In our dataset, average recoveries of senior unsecured infrastructure debt are also higher than those of senior secured. This is surprising but largely reflects a concentration of debt from regulated utilities that is included among the defaulted senior unsecured bonds. In many of these cases, the senior unsecured bond was the most senior instrument in the debt stack, which supported an above-average recovery for those instruments.

In addition, the recovery for senior secured infrastructure debt is more influenced by project finance recoveries. Since most project finance debt is secured, it accounts for very few of the senior unsecured or subordinated recoveries.

The regulated and unregulated utilities subsector has the highest average recovery rate (83.2%), lifted in part by the portion of those that benefited from regulatory support and the ability to pass through costs to consumers. However, dollar-weighted recovery for the utilities sector is notably lower (69.9%), since this recovery is weighed down by a few defaults of unregulated utility entities, including Enron Inc. in 2001 (see chart 16).

Chart 16

image

Recovery By Default Type

Recovery rates can also vary with the type of default that the infrastructure entity undergoes. In nonbankruptcy restructurings, which include distressed exchanges and defaults that are cured within or outside of the grace period, the recovery rates for unsecured and subordinated debt tend to be higher, on average, than they would be through a bankruptcy restructuring. Unsecured creditors tend to experience higher average recoveries if they can avoid an expensive bankruptcy restructuring process that pits creditor against creditor.

The average recovery across all instruments is higher, at 80.8%, following a nonbankruptcy restructuring than the 75.7% average following a bankruptcy (see table 14). By debt type, the difference stems from senior unsecured and subordinated debt that tend to realize higher average recoveries through nonbankruptcy restructurings, which is consistent with what we find in nonfinancial corporate recoveries.

Table 14

Average recovery rate for bankruptcy versus non bankruptcy restructurings
Average recovery (nominal, %) Instrument count
Bankruptcy Nonbankruptcy Bankruptcy Nonbankruptcy
Senior secured debt 77.4 73.2 148 15
Senior unsecured and subordinated 74.3 83 186 50
Total 75.7 80.8 334 65
Nominal recovery for defaulted debt instruments from infrastructure corporate and project finance entities. Senior secured debt includes all bank debt and senior secured bonds. Nonbankruptcy restructurings include distressed exchanges, defaults cured within, or without, the grace period, and other nonbankruptcy restructurings. Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro® and S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Close to half of defaulted infrastructure debt instruments have ultimately recovered par or greater. Granted, these nominal recoveries don't factor in the time value of money. Of recovered infrastructure debt instruments, 49.9% recovered at par or greater, markedly higher than the 28.5% of nonfinancial corporates that recovered at that level (see chart 17).

Chart 17

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At the low end of the distribution, just 9.0% of defaulted infrastructure debt instruments recovered 10% or less, compared with about 17.9% of nonfinancial corporate debt instruments. However, the sample size of infrastructure recoveries remains considerably smaller than that of nonfinancial corporates.

The distribution of project finance recoveries tends to vary more widely than that of corporate infrastructure. While 23% of project finance instruments recovered par or greater, 20% experienced recoveries of just 10% or less (see chart 18).

Chart 18

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Among other projects with higher recoveries, many tend to benefit from characteristics similar to those of regulated utilities. For instance, infrastructure project financings hold essential assets, have stable cash flows, and exhibit low industry risk. In many cases, low industry risk may be supported by long-term offtake contracts, such as power purchase agreements or availability-based payments under a concession, operations and maintenance contracts, or fuel-supply contracts.

The distribution of recoveries within corporate infrastructure tends to be more highly concentrated at the high end of the recovery range. Most defaulted debt instruments (about 54.6%) from corporate infrastructure experienced recoveries of par or greater, while just 7.1% of instruments recovered 10% or less (see chart 19).

Chart 19

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Appendix I: Definitions And Methodology

Infrastructure investment is broadly defined as investment exposure (debt or equity) to real assets vital to a country's economic development and prosperity that provide essential services for the orderly operations of an economy, such as transportation networks, health and education facilities, communication networks, and water and energy distribution systems. Key risks are in design, permitting, construction, operations, volume, and maintenance, with debt repaid predominantly by cash generated from the assets themselves.

Characteristics of infrastructure entities vary, and the variety of risks managed by infrastructure investments is broad (such as greenfield/brownfield, contracted/regulated/merchant, and availability/demand risk). Characteristics sought by investors in infrastructure include longevity, strong competitive advantages, high barriers to entry and monopolistic characteristics, low volatility, differentiation between return and volatility, and inflation-linked or predictable cash flows.

Our fourth annual infrastructure default and rating transition study continues the analysis of the inaugural study, and also expands on and supersedes project finance studies we've published in previous years. The data encompasses project finance ratings from past reports and adds ratings from other segments within infrastructure. The advantage of this report over its predecessors is its broader perspective and larger dataset, which allow for more conclusions and increases the robustness of the findings while enabling comparisons between infrastructure issuer types and subsectors.

Our long-term infrastructure default and rating transition study uses long-term ratings on individual project finance debt issues. For projects with multiple tranches of debt, we used a single rating for all pari passu tranches to mitigate the risk of overweighting such projects in the sample set. For projects with senior and subordinated debt with different ratings, we counted each class separately and collapsed multiple tranches of pari passu debt into a single rating.

An infrastructure rating reflects S&P Global Ratings' opinion of the obligor's ability and willingness to meet its financial commitments on time, and it generally indicates our opinion of the likelihood of default regarding the specific rated issuance. Unlike issuer credit ratings, project finance ratings consider the value of collateral and recovery in determining the rating.

We analyzed the rating histories of corporate infrastructure and project finance credits that S&P Global Ratings first rated between Dec. 31, 1980, and Dec. 31, 2022. We categorized these ratings into five subsectors: utilities, power, oil and gas, social infrastructure, and transportation. Other obligors are grouped in a separate category.

The analysis excludes ratings based on the guarantee of another entity and obligations wrapped by a monoline insurer, unless the obligations bear an S&P Underlying Rating (SPUR), in which case we included the SPUR. Corporate issuers, structured finance vehicles, public-sector issuers, and sovereign issuers are the subjects of separate default and transition studies, so we have excluded them from this study. The infrastructure data makes up a sufficiently large set, although individual subsectors are small, so that a few defaults or rating transitions can have a sizable effect on portfolio performance within those groups.

Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study could lead to outcomes that differ to some degree from those reported in previous studies. However, this poses no continuity problem because each study reports statistics back to Dec. 31, 1980. Therefore, each annual default study is self-contained and effectively supersedes all previous versions.

Withdrawn ratings

When a rating is withdrawn, it is changed to not rated (NR). Issue ratings are withdrawn when an obligation is repaid or at the request of the issuer. S&P Global Ratings also withdraws ratings when sufficient information to maintain a rating is unavailable. If we withdrew a rating after the issue defaulted, we counted it as a default.

Definition of default

A default is assumed to take place on the date S&P Global Ratings revised the rating to 'D', which could occur when a payment on the issue is missed, a distressed exchange offer is completed, or the issuer filed for or was forced into bankruptcy. When an issue defaults, it is not uncommon for S&P Global Ratings to subsequently withdraw the 'D' rating.

For the purposes of this study, if an issue defaults, we end its rating history at 'D'. For those instances when an issue defaulted and was subsequently upgraded, we entered the rating history after the default into the calculations as a new rating.

Many practitioners use statistics from this default study to estimate "probability of default" and "probability of rating transition." It is important to note that S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings do not imply a specific probability of default.

Static pool methodology

We conduct our default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issues by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. All issues included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. When an issue defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issue belonged.

We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates. This is to ensure that default rates account for rating migration and to allow for default rates to be calculated across multiperiod time horizons.

The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of issues in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Jan. 1, 1981, to avoid continuity problems.

Because static pools only include issues with active ratings as of the beginning date of a given pool, we exclude those with withdrawn ratings, as well as those that have defaulted, from subsequent static pools. If the rating on an issue is withdrawn after the start date of a particular static pool and the issue subsequently defaults, we will include it in that static pool as a default and categorize it in the rating category of which it was a member at that time.

For instance, the 1983 static pool consists of all issues rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1983. Adding those issues first rated in 1983 to the surviving members of the 1983 static pool forms the 1984 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1984 static pool through the ratings on these issues as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1984. We used the same method to form static pools for 1985-2022.

Consider the following example: An issue is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1996 and is downgraded to 'B' in 1998. This is followed by a rating withdrawal in 2000 and a default in 2003. We would include this hypothetical issue in the 1997 and 1998 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1999 and 2000 pools with the 'B' rating. It would not be part of the 1996 pool because it was not rated as of the first day of that year, and it would not be included in any pool after the last day of 2000 because the rating had been withdrawn by then. Yet each of the four pools in which this company was included (1997-2000) would record its 2003 default at the appropriate time horizon.

Transition matrices

Transition rates compare issue ratings at the beginning of a period with the ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. An issue that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated.

For instance, an issue continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If the rating on the issue was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.

All 1982 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2023, had 41 one-year transitions, while companies first rated on Dec. 31, 2021, had only one. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to not rated.

The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if an issue was rated 'A' on Jan. 1, 2014, and was downgraded to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this instrument would be included only in the percentage of issues that began the year as 'A' and that ended the year as 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issue defaults or if the rating is withdrawn in the middle of the year, then it would be considered rated 'D', or not rated, as of Dec. 31 of that particular year.

Multiyear transitions

Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two up to five years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2020 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2022.

Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions. We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices just described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issue-weighted averages.

Rating modifiers

We use rating modifiers (plus and minus signs) to calculate upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, throughout this study. However, some transition tables may use full rating categories for practical reasons: The use of a rating category suggests that transitions to 'AA-' from 'AA', for example, or to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+' are not considered to be rating transitions because the rating remained within the rating category.

Issue-weighted statistics

Averages that appear in this study are calculated based on the number of issues, rather than the dollar amounts, affected by defaults or rating changes. Although dollar amounts provide information about the portion of the market affected by defaults or rating changes, we believe issue-weighted averages are more useful measures of the performance of ratings.

Average cumulative default rate calculation

The cumulative default rates in this study average the experience of all static pools by first calculating marginal default rates for each possible time horizon and for each static pool, weight-averaging the marginal default rates conditional on survival (survivors being nondefaulters), and accumulating the average conditional marginal default rates.

We calculated conditional default rates by dividing the number of issues in a static pool that default at a specific time horizon by the number of issues that survived (did not default) to that point in time. Weights are based on the number of issues in each static pool. Cumulative default rates are one minus the product of the proportion of survivors (nondefaulters).

Appendix II: Additional Exhibits

Chart 20

Utilities rating distribution
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C
1/1/1981 12 57 134 65 13 1 0
1/1/1982 14 47 128 68 10 6 1
1/1/1983 14 49 117 68 14 6 1
1/1/1984 14 54 105 69 19 7 1
1/1/1985 4 61 110 62 21 4 3
1/1/1986 4 50 115 77 13 4 3
1/1/1987 4 49 106 90 13 8 2
1/1/1988 3 46 99 95 21 9 4
1/1/1989 4 42 99 97 21 5 0
1/1/1990 6 37 90 93 30 5 0
1/1/1991 9 42 80 102 22 4 0
1/1/1992 9 47 81 107 18 6 4
1/1/1993 9 54 90 111 18 6 0
1/1/1994 8 61 96 112 13 19 0
1/1/1995 8 61 95 117 14 17 0
1/1/1996 8 65 113 125 20 17 0
1/1/1997 7 60 114 124 25 14 0
1/1/1998 7 64 149 125 39 4 1
1/1/1999 8 62 161 155 41 2 2
1/1/2000 8 59 178 179 33 1 2
1/1/2001 10 44 187 218 40 6 2
1/1/2002 12 38 182 252 38 3 20
1/1/2003 7 29 184 214 47 25 9
1/1/2004 5 44 182 235 47 28 16
1/1/2005 3 43 201 231 41 28 11
1/1/2006 2 42 206 243 39 30 4
1/1/2007 2 45 201 236 53 26 3
1/1/2008 1 48 191 231 46 26 10
1/1/2009 1 47 197 247 48 18 9
1/1/2010 1 40 210 248 48 22 10
1/1/2011 1 42 211 270 49 20 10
1/1/2012 1 33 208 281 55 15 12
1/1/2013 1 26 213 312 59 10 13
1/1/2014 1 28 212 325 53 10 12
1/1/2015 2 29 215 326 52 6 8
1/1/2016 2 34 220 310 56 6 8
1/1/2017 1 34 221 310 55 9 7
1/1/2018 1 31 241 291 54 14 2
1/1/2019 1 30 234 291 41 16 7
1/1/2020 1 26 221 288 44 19 4
1/1/2021 1 21 197 277 53 15 7
1/1/2022 1 18 178 309 46 17 6
1/1/2023 1 13 182 281 46 12 5
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Chart 21

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Chart 22

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Chart 23

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Chart 24

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Chart 25

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Table 15

Infrastructure rating distribution, Jan. 1, 2023
Number of ratings
Utilities Oil and gas Transportation Power Social infrastructure Other
AAA 1 0 1 0 0 3
AA 13 1 8 2 0 17
A 182 7 43 7 30 81
BBB 281 94 75 75 43 20
BB 46 53 29 59 17 6
B 12 32 8 17 4 8
CCC/C 5 7 4 8 1 0
Total 540 194 168 168 95 135
Speculative-grade 63 92 41 84 22 14
Percent of ratings
Utilities Oil and gas Transportation Power Social infrastructure Other
AAA 0% 0% 1% N/A N/A 2%
AA 2% 1% 5% 1% 0% 13%
A 34% 4% 26% 4% 32% 60%
BBB 52% 48% 45% 45% 45% 15%
BB 9% 27% 17% 35% 18% 4%
B 2% 16% 5% 10% 4% 6%
CCC/C 1% 4% 2% 5% 1% 0%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Speculative-grade 12% 47% 24% 50% 23% 10.4%
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights

Table 16

Average transition rates for all infrastructure (1981-2022)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 83.85 7.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.95
AA 0.36 83.55 8.19 0.53 0.14 0.07 0.00 0.00 7.16
A 0.03 1.02 85.43 5.59 0.13 0.04 0.05 0.09 7.61
BBB 0.00 0.01 2.48 85.49 2.67 0.23 0.25 0.13 8.74
BB 0.00 0.00 0.12 6.55 72.78 6.94 0.96 0.26 12.38
B 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.90 8.92 67.22 7.07 1.66 14.04
CCC/C 0.53 0.00 0.53 0.00 2.30 10.44 54.69 13.81 17.70
Three year
AAA 55.93 14.82 1.78 1.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.89
AA 0.78 59.42 16.54 1.99 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.83
A 0.06 2.17 63.01 11.79 0.59 0.23 0.09 0.28 21.76
BBB 0.01 0.04 5.84 63.03 4.41 1.14 0.62 0.68 24.24
BB 0.03 0.00 0.22 12.49 40.55 8.86 2.19 1.49 34.18
B 0.11 0.00 0.32 3.52 14.67 30.76 8.25 5.21 37.17
CCC/C 0.40 0.00 0.00 1.20 3.61 10.84 16.06 26.10 41.77
Five year
AAA 34.69 17.04 1.83 4.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.58
AA 0.93 41.77 19.38 3.08 0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.22
A 0.09 2.49 47.18 13.62 0.75 0.32 0.14 0.54 34.87
BBB 0.03 0.05 7.27 46.90 4.43 1.45 0.74 1.17 37.96
BB 0.06 0.00 0.49 13.60 23.79 5.97 1.85 3.02 51.22
B 0.00 0.00 0.42 4.90 12.49 13.27 4.36 7.35 57.20
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.98 1.54 7.71 5.29 30.40 53.08
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 17

Average transition rates for corporate infrastructure excluding utilities (1981-2022)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 86.41 6.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.32
AA 0.88 86.88 6.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.17
A 0.06 1.14 86.77 5.15 0.18 0.12 0.00 0.06 6.53
BBB 0.00 0.00 1.04 86.18 3.20 0.37 0.18 0.09 8.94
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.82 73.39 5.61 0.28 0.42 14.48
B 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.71 7.72 70.15 6.40 1.02 13.81
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.66 11.70 58.51 10.64 16.49
Three year
AAA 63.35 16.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.64
AA 2.12 65.45 14.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.92
A 0.07 2.92 63.89 13.26 0.76 0.49 0.00 0.21 18.40
BBB 0.00 0.00 2.06 64.95 5.77 1.68 0.55 0.76 24.24
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.16 41.76 6.81 1.15 1.15 37.98
B 0.00 0.00 0.35 2.42 13.13 34.10 8.99 3.92 37.10
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.65 1.96 13.73 16.34 19.61 47.71
Five year
AAA 42.59 22.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.44
AA 2.73 49.93 18.08 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.09
A 0.08 3.84 46.00 16.64 1.44 0.40 0.24 0.40 30.96
BBB 0.00 0.00 2.45 51.00 5.81 2.65 0.80 1.44 35.85
BB 0.00 0.00 0.10 12.23 23.86 4.15 1.01 2.22 56.42
B 0.00 0.00 0.54 3.40 12.36 14.40 4.48 5.03 59.78
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.41 1.41 7.75 7.04 20.42 61.97
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 18

Average transition rates for utilities (1981-2022)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 82.11 8.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.17
AA 0.11 82.00 9.35 0.76 0.22 0.11 0.00 0.00 7.45
A 0.03 1.12 84.52 5.80 0.10 0.03 0.07 0.10 8.21
BBB 0.00 0.00 3.51 84.36 2.05 0.11 0.25 0.16 9.55
BB 0.00 0.00 0.34 10.39 69.91 5.74 1.21 0.07 12.35
B 0.00 0.00 0.39 2.14 12.84 60.51 6.81 2.33 14.98
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 1.40 0.00 0.47 12.62 52.80 18.69 14.02
Three year
AAA 48.61 13.89 4.17 3.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.63
AA 0.17 56.78 18.06 2.83 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.50
A 0.06 2.27 61.31 12.01 0.55 0.16 0.13 0.31 23.21
BBB 0.00 0.00 8.26 60.66 3.12 0.62 0.42 0.72 26.20
BB 0.00 0.00 0.58 18.08 36.66 6.44 1.88 1.16 35.21
B 0.00 0.00 0.62 8.92 17.63 22.20 6.85 7.26 36.51
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.49 2.49 9.45 15.92 32.84 36.82
Five year
AAA 26.17 10.28 4.21 11.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 48.13
AA 0.17 38.30 20.58 3.84 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.18
A 0.08 2.47 45.42 13.60 0.62 0.25 0.12 0.57 36.86
BBB 0.00 0.00 10.06 43.79 2.79 0.65 0.54 1.13 41.05
BB 0.00 0.00 1.16 18.57 19.41 4.78 0.92 2.39 52.77
B 0.00 0.00 0.67 12.08 12.98 5.15 4.03 10.74 54.36
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.68 0.53 7.37 5.26 37.37 45.79
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 19

Average transition rates for project finance (1981-2022)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 44.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.56
AA 0.00 80.65 4.84 1.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.90
A 0.00 0.00 89.93 4.81 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.03
BBB 0.00 0.07 1.31 87.77 3.75 0.40 0.30 0.07 6.33
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.77 75.55 9.94 1.47 0.33 9.94
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 7.55 68.14 8.37 2.13 13.63
CCC/C 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.29 6.13 52.76 11.04 23.93
Three year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
AA 0.00 53.33 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.67
A 0.00 0.00 75.69 7.23 0.66 0.39 0.00 0.13 15.90
BBB 0.04 0.19 3.29 67.48 6.50 1.98 1.23 0.49 18.82
BB 0.09 0.00 0.00 6.88 44.13 14.22 3.76 2.29 28.62
B 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.54 14.49 32.97 8.33 5.43 37.86
CCC/C 1.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.94 9.72 15.97 23.61 42.36
From / to
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
AA 0.00 37.50 0.00 5.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 57.14
A 0.16 0.00 65.88 7.86 0.63 0.79 0.16 0.47 24.06
BBB 0.13 0.25 4.31 51.52 7.73 2.49 1.27 1.01 31.29
BB 0.21 0.00 0.00 8.32 29.63 9.46 3.95 4.68 43.76
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 12.24 18.98 4.49 7.76 55.92
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.28 8.20 3.28 31.15 54.10
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 20

Average transition rates for oil and gas (1981-2022)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 80.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00
AA 0.00 81.40 13.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.65
A 0.14 0.14 85.06 7.05 0.55 0.14 0.00 0.14 6.78
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.86 87.66 2.96 0.18 0.00 0.00 8.33
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.76 71.28 5.97 0.21 0.21 14.57
B 0.00 0.14 0.14 1.01 8.38 70.23 6.07 0.72 13.29
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.54 12.39 59.29 6.19 18.58
Three year
AAA 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00
AA 0.00 53.66 26.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.51
A 0.14 0.00 61.65 16.34 1.56 0.28 0.00 0.43 19.60
BBB 0.00 0.00 1.72 70.09 5.41 1.41 0.15 0.15 21.07
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.87 37.41 6.35 0.96 0.84 39.57
B 0.00 0.00 0.50 3.49 14.31 35.27 8.82 2.66 34.94
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 3.41 11.36 19.32 10.23 54.55
Five year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
AA 0.00 25.64 25.64 7.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.03
A 0.15 0.00 45.41 20.56 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.74 31.07
BBB 0.00 0.00 2.21 57.83 5.53 2.39 0.58 0.23 31.22
BB 0.00 0.00 0.14 15.54 21.47 1.84 0.71 0.99 59.32
B 0.00 0.00 0.80 4.57 12.92 16.10 4.17 3.18 58.25
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.70 1.35 9.46 9.46 10.81 66.22
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 21

Average transition rates for power (1981-2022)
AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AA 88.89 11.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 78.57 16.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.36
BBB 0.00 0.77 88.19 4.17 0.54 0.54 0.23 5.56
BB 0.00 0.00 1.41 76.06 9.35 1.02 0.77 11.40
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.57 70.97 7.20 1.27 13.98
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.85 8.74 54.37 12.62 19.42
Three year
AA 50.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 58.24 32.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.79
BBB 0.00 1.04 68.95 6.42 3.12 1.04 1.82 17.61
BB 0.00 0.00 3.42 46.97 14.15 3.42 1.71 30.33
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.33 32.18 9.20 4.37 40.92
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.60 14.94 13.79 27.59 39.08
Five year
AA 25.00 75.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 43.84 38.36 1.37 2.74 0.00 0.00 13.70
BBB 0.00 0.80 54.27 7.55 3.98 1.49 3.48 28.43
BB 0.00 0.00 3.54 29.53 12.01 3.74 3.74 47.44
B 0.00 0.00 0.54 12.87 14.48 5.36 6.70 60.05
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.37 8.22 4.11 32.88 53.42
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 22

Average transition rates for transportation (1981-2022)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 82.42 7.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.89
AA 1.48 84.44 5.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.15
A 0.00 0.63 86.85 4.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.92
BBB 0.00 0.00 1.95 86.75 2.89 0.42 0.42 0.00 7.56
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.59 79.02 6.56 0.33 0.00 9.51
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.77 70.68 9.77 1.50 8.27
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.04 58.70 10.87 17.39
Three year
AAA 56.04 19.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.18
AA 3.94 58.66 12.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.41
A 0.00 1.50 66.23 11.63 0.56 0.38 0.00 0.00 19.70
BBB 0.00 0.00 5.20 63.00 6.58 0.69 1.18 0.39 22.96
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.46 46.86 13.81 2.51 1.26 25.10
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 13.89 42.59 12.04 4.63 25.93
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 13.89 22.22 38.89
Five year
AAA 30.34 29.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.45
AA 5.43 41.18 15.38 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.56
A 0.00 2.04 51.70 13.15 0.91 0.23 0.68 0.00 31.29
BBB 0.00 0.00 6.60 45.74 7.32 2.40 0.60 0.96 36.37
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.87 28.04 14.81 2.65 2.65 35.98
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.49 12.79 26.74 5.81 4.65 46.51
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.38 9.38 25.00 56.25
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 23

Average transition rates for social infrastructure (1981-2022)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 66.67 0.00 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67
A 0.00 0.00 92.86 3.44 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.44
BBB 0.00 0.27 1.90 90.09 3.39 0.41 0.14 0.00 3.80
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.59 85.63 4.79 1.20 0.00 4.79
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.76 9.52 52.38 14.29 0.00 19.05
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 0.00 44.44 11.11 33.33
Three year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 16.67 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00
A 0.00 0.00 81.39 5.05 0.32 0.32 0.00 0.00 12.93
BBB 0.00 0.78 5.12 74.07 8.23 1.09 0.31 0.00 10.40
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.93 65.96 5.67 2.84 0.00 15.60
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.18 27.27 0.00 27.27 0.00 27.27
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 16.67 50.00 0.00
Five year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00
A 0.00 0.00 73.02 7.14 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 19.05
BBB 0.00 1.10 7.92 62.43 11.42 1.10 0.55 0.00 15.47
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.16 56.14 4.39 4.39 0.00 21.93
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.50 0.00 25.00 12.50 25.00
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 66.67 0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 24

Average one-year transition rates for other finance ratings (1981-2022)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
From / to
AAA 86.50 5.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.00
AA 0.62 87.83 5.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.08
A 0.00 2.00 90.43 2.43 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 5.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.84 80.58 4.56 0.60 0.24 0.24 12.95
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.81 70.84 9.72 1.94 0.43 14.25
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.52 65.22 7.97 3.62 16.67
CCC/C 3.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 3.75 52.50 15.00 22.50
From / to
AAA 64.43 13.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.65
AA 1.33 68.55 12.65 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.30
A 0.00 6.12 71.58 4.14 0.18 0.90 0.00 0.18 16.91
BBB 0.13 0.00 2.01 50.00 5.15 3.02 2.51 0.88 36.31
BB 0.22 0.00 0.00 5.75 37.83 11.73 3.32 3.98 37.17
B 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.08 30.19 5.66 9.06 42.26
CCC/C 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 3.75 16.25 25.00 47.50
From / to
AAA 47.57 19.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.97
AA 1.62 54.40 16.52 1.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.39
A 0.23 8.78 54.73 3.38 0.68 1.13 0.23 0.68 30.18
BBB 0.39 0.00 2.49 30.54 4.46 2.36 2.23 1.70 55.83
BB 0.46 0.00 0.00 6.48 23.61 5.79 3.24 8.33 52.08
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.38 16.02 2.73 11.33 60.55
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.53 6.33 1.27 29.11 60.76
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 25

Infrastructure rating actions per year
Utilities Power Oil and gas Transportation Social Other
Upgrades Downgrades Defaults Upgrades Downgrades Defaults Upgrades Downgrades Defaults Upgrades Downgrades Defaults Upgrades Downgrades Defaults Upgrades Downgrades Defaults
1/1/1981 6 -40 0 0 -1 0 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1982 20 -28 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1983 20 -29 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 -2 0
1/1/1984 78 -28 0 1 0 0 7 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1985 36 -26 0 0 0 0 2 -11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 -2 0
1/1/1986 32 -37 0 0 0 0 1 -12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1987 16 -48 0 0 0 0 8 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1988 18 -21 -5 0 0 0 5 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1989 29 -45 0 0 0 0 6 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 -2 0
1/1/1990 32 -29 0 0 0 0 2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1991 24 -27 -3 0 0 0 1 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1992 28 -22 -5 0 0 0 1 -8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 0 0
1/1/1993 7 -37 0 0 -3 0 1 -3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 1 -2 0
1/1/1994 5 -41 0 0 -1 0 4 -3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0
1/1/1995 33 -18 0 0 0 0 2 -3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 -2 0
1/1/1996 28 -17 0 1 0 0 4 -5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 -1 0
1/1/1997 65 -28 0 3 -1 0 6 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 5 -4 0
1/1/1998 15 -32 0 0 -2 0 2 -3 0 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A 1 -10 0
1/1/1999 53 -60 0 4 -2 0 5 -4 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A 7 -9 -1
1/1/2000 22 -75 0 0 -2 0 1 -3 0 2 -1 0 0 0 0 10 -6 0
1/1/2001 47 -105 -9 3 -11 0 10 -4 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 5 -8 -1
1/1/2002 25 -148 -13 0 -19 -4 7 -20 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 7 -26 -1
1/1/2003 10 -129 -4 5 -11 -9 4 -15 0 1 -2 0 0 0 0 2 -29 0
1/1/2004 49 -41 -1 7 -7 0 4 -21 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 -11 -1
1/1/2005 61 -45 -5 6 -10 -2 11 -21 0 5 -7 0 1 0 0 20 -18 -3
1/1/2006 39 -34 0 16 -4 0 29 -7 0 1 -8 0 1 -1 0 21 -9 -1
1/1/2007 91 -57 0 13 -5 0 23 -13 0 4 -8 -1 0 -1 0 24 -7 -1
1/1/2008 76 -38 0 6 -10 0 10 -8 0 7 -9 -2 2 -3 0 12 -18 -2
1/1/2009 39 -62 -4 4 -18 0 4 -12 0 0 -16 -1 4 -11 0 11 -22 -2
1/1/2010 36 -67 -3 10 -21 0 13 -9 0 8 -13 0 4 -6 0 8 -24 -2
1/1/2011 45 -64 -6 7 -11 0 15 -11 0 4 -13 0 5 -6 0 1 -16 -1
1/1/2012 28 -67 -2 2 -16 0 28 -22 0 5 -16 0 5 -2 0 7 -12 -6
1/1/2013 71 -42 -2 6 -17 -3 22 -22 0 7 -10 0 6 -5 0 2 -6 -1
1/1/2014 32 -26 -6 22 -16 0 37 -22 0 23 -17 0 11 -7 0 2 -5 -1
1/1/2015 71 -50 0 5 -20 0 17 -32 -1 13 -16 0 6 -5 0 3 -2 0
1/1/2016 83 -44 0 9 -37 -2 21 -45 -2 12 -18 -1 4 -4 -1 6 -24 0
1/1/2017 67 -46 -1 14 -20 -3 33 -29 -1 13 -16 0 8 -3 0 6 -7 0
1/1/2018 49 -30 -1 15 -20 -1 40 -19 -1 15 -9 0 2 -10 0 9 -22 -2
1/1/2019 34 -32 -2 18 -30 0 21 -17 -1 11 -11 0 3 -3 0 0 -14 0
1/1/2020 9 -56 -1 18 -28 -2 3 -51 -5 3 -67 -1 2 -15 0 1 -20 0
1/1/2021 33 -59 0 6 -28 0 11 -24 -1 12 -12 0 0 -13 0 4 -14 0
1/1/2022 11 -24 0 7 -23 -2 29 -11 -1 13 -5 0 2 -12 0 3 -7 0
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 26

All infrastructure cumulative default rates with modifier, 1981-2022
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
A+ 0.06 0.12 0.19 0.25 0.33 0.40 0.48 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
A 0.12 0.22 0.35 0.49 0.64 0.71 0.79 0.87 0.96 1.09 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19
A- 0.07 0.16 0.24 0.34 0.45 0.54 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70
BBB+ 0.16 0.36 0.62 0.84 1.02 1.12 1.26 1.37 1.48 1.65 1.83 2.02 2.07 2.18 2.24
BBB 0.09 0.29 0.49 0.68 0.84 1.03 1.21 1.43 1.57 1.79 1.99 2.13 2.32 2.53 2.76
BBB- 0.13 0.54 0.87 1.16 1.45 1.72 2.01 2.28 2.45 2.55 2.67 2.75 2.93 3.03 3.14
BB+ 0.00 0.14 0.43 1.67 2.57 3.09 3.27 3.47 3.69 3.93 4.19 4.48 4.63 4.81 4.99
BB 0.66 0.96 1.61 2.13 2.59 2.89 3.11 3.47 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73
BB- 0.16 1.10 2.67 3.16 3.80 4.27 4.65 5.05 5.35 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
B+ 0.77 2.48 3.44 4.35 4.77 5.23 6.05 6.42 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83
B 1.44 2.97 4.88 6.06 7.13 7.89 8.30 8.72 9.43 9.68 9.68 9.68 9.68 9.68 9.68
B- 3.57 6.52 7.88 9.81 11.07 12.42 12.72 13.35 14.01 15.09 15.48 15.89 15.89 15.89 15.89
CCC/C 13.81 21.16 25.03 27.61 28.51 29.23 30.26 30.81 31.11 31.11 31.11 31.11 31.11 31.11 31.11
Investment grade 0.10 0.27 0.44 0.60 0.74 0.87 0.99 1.11 1.19 1.29 1.39 1.48 1.56 1.62 1.69
Speculative grade 1.82 3.29 4.50 5.57 6.32 6.88 7.29 7.67 8.03 8.22 8.31 8.41 8.44 8.48 8.53
All rated 0.45 0.88 1.25 1.59 1.85 2.06 2.23 2.40 2.53 2.65 2.74 2.83 2.90 2.96 3.02
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 27

Investment-grade cumulative default rates (%)
Years 'A' infrastructure corporates and project finance 'BBB' infrastructure corporates and project finance 'A' nonfinancial corporates 'BBB' nonfinancial corporates
0 0 0 0 0
1 0.09 0.13 0.03 0.12
2 0.18 0.39 0.07 0.33
3 0.27 0.65 0.11 0.60
4 0.38 0.89 0.19 0.95
5 0.49 1.09 0.29 1.34
6 0.57 1.28 0.41 1.74
7 0.63 1.49 0.57 2.08
8 0.67 1.69 0.73 2.41
9 0.71 1.84 0.89 2.73
10 0.75 2.00 1.05 3.05
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 28

Speculative-grade cumulative default rates (%)
Years 'BB' infrastructure corporates and project finance 'B' infrastructure corporates and project finance 'CCC'/'C' infrastructure 'BB' nonfinancial corporates 'B' nonfinancial corporates 'CCC'/'C' nonfinancial corporates
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.26 1.66 13.81 0.59 3.15 26.74
2 0.70 3.60 21.16 1.93 7.45 37.01
3 1.48 4.97 25.03 3.48 11.32 42.47
4 2.26 6.21 27.61 5.04 14.44 45.55
5 2.94 7.05 28.51 6.50 16.89 47.91
6 3.37 7.82 29.23 7.84 18.84 49.03
7 3.62 8.37 30.26 9.01 20.40 50.15
8 3.93 8.83 30.81 10.10 21.63 50.84
9 4.19 9.40 31.11 11.08 22.74 51.47
10 4.33 9.76 31.11 11.94 23.76 52.02
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 29

Average cumulative default rates (1981-2022) (%)
--Time horizon (years)--
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
All infrastructure
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
A 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.38 0.49 0.57 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.75 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.86 0.86
BBB 0.13 0.39 0.65 0.89 1.09 1.28 1.49 1.69 1.84 2.00 2.17 2.31 2.45 2.60 2.74
BB 0.26 0.70 1.48 2.26 2.94 3.37 3.62 3.93 4.19 4.33 4.43 4.54 4.60 4.67 4.74
B 1.66 3.61 4.93 6.17 7.01 7.78 8.34 8.79 9.37 9.72 9.82 9.92 9.92 9.92 9.92
CCC/C 13.85 21.14 25.08 27.71 28.63 29.36 30.39 30.94 31.23 31.23 31.23 31.23 31.23 31.23 31.23
Investment grade 0.10 0.27 0.44 0.60 0.74 0.87 0.99 1.11 1.19 1.29 1.39 1.48 1.56 1.62 1.69
Speculative grade 1.81 3.26 4.47 5.54 6.28 6.85 7.26 7.64 7.99 8.19 8.28 8.38 8.41 8.45 8.50
All rated 0.44 0.87 1.24 1.58 1.84 2.05 2.23 2.39 2.52 2.64 2.74 2.82 2.89 2.96 3.02
Project finance
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.27 0.43 0.60 0.80 1.01 1.01 1.29 1.62 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.01
BBB 0.07 0.28 0.47 0.70 0.92 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.21 1.33 1.53 1.67 1.82 1.82 1.82
BB 0.33 0.85 2.22 3.29 4.44 5.23 5.71 6.37 6.94 7.26 7.43 7.62 7.83 8.08 8.37
B 2.13 4.37 5.10 5.87 6.70 7.58 8.55 9.36 10.24 10.56 10.56 10.56 10.56 10.56 10.56
CCC/C 11.04 16.97 21.94 26.01 26.88 26.88 26.88 26.88 26.88 26.88 26.88 26.88 26.88 26.88 26.88
Investment grade 0.05 0.21 0.38 0.60 0.79 0.90 1.01 1.09 1.14 1.28 1.49 1.66 1.79 1.79 1.79
Speculative grade 1.75 3.23 4.69 5.89 6.92 7.67 8.27 8.92 9.54 9.83 9.93 10.05 10.18 10.33 10.51
All rated 0.62 1.23 1.84 2.38 2.86 3.18 3.46 3.73 3.97 4.16 4.33 4.49 4.61 4.66 4.72
Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.06 0.12 0.19 0.27 0.35 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.56 0.69 0.69 0.69
BBB 0.09 0.38 0.73 1.06 1.34 1.69 2.07 2.45 2.80 3.20 3.49 3.73 4.00 4.41 4.76
BB 0.42 0.72 1.21 1.75 2.36 2.70 3.08 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38
B 1.02 2.53 3.69 4.82 5.63 6.67 7.16 7.53 8.37 9.08 9.35 9.64 9.64 9.64 9.64
CCC/C 10.61 17.35 20.10 21.51 22.23 22.23 23.10 24.05 24.05 24.05 24.05 24.05 24.05 24.05 24.05
Investment grade 0.07 0.24 0.44 0.63 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.38 1.56 1.74 1.88 2.03 2.19 2.37 2.52
Speculative grade 1.34 2.54 3.44 4.27 4.97 5.56 6.03 6.41 6.76 7.05 7.16 7.29 7.29 7.29 7.29
All rated 0.45 0.92 1.32 1.70 2.02 2.33 2.59 2.83 3.04 3.26 3.39 3.53 3.66 3.80 3.92
Utilities
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
A 0.10 0.21 0.30 0.42 0.53 0.60 0.66 0.70 0.74 0.78 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82
BBB 0.16 0.44 0.69 0.89 1.07 1.23 1.41 1.62 1.72 1.84 1.96 2.07 2.18 2.30 2.43
BB 0.07 0.55 1.13 1.88 2.27 2.51 2.51 2.60 2.78 2.88 2.99 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10
B 2.33 4.75 7.04 8.99 9.90 10.13 10.37 10.61 10.61 10.61 10.61 10.61 10.61 10.61 10.61
CCC/C 18.69 27.40 31.46 34.06 35.15 36.80 38.52 39.14 39.80 39.80 39.80 39.80 39.80 39.80 39.80
Investment grade 0.12 0.29 0.45 0.59 0.72 0.82 0.92 1.03 1.10 1.16 1.23 1.29 1.34 1.39 1.44
Speculative grade 2.40 4.13 5.44 6.64 7.21 7.59 7.82 7.99 8.18 8.24 8.31 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38
All rated 0.38 0.74 1.03 1.29 1.47 1.61 1.72 1.84 1.92 1.98 2.05 2.11 2.15 2.20 2.25
Oil and gas
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.14 0.28 0.42 0.57 0.71 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87
BBB 0.00 0.05 0.15 0.26 0.31 0.38 0.51 0.66 0.75 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83
BB 0.21 0.55 0.91 1.04 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18
B 0.73 1.66 2.33 3.06 3.85 4.94 5.18 5.18 5.47 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80
CCC/C 5.77 8.98 11.44 14.01 15.40 15.40 17.28 19.34 19.34 19.34 19.34 19.34 19.34 19.34 19.34
Investment grade 0.03 0.10 0.21 0.33 0.41 0.50 0.59 0.69 0.75 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81
Speculative grade 0.74 1.48 2.08 2.58 3.04 3.47 3.66 3.76 3.88 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01
All rated 0.30 0.61 0.89 1.14 1.36 1.56 1.68 1.79 1.86 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94
Power
AAA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.33 4.83 4.83 4.83
BBB 0.23 0.97 1.75 2.49 3.09 3.84 4.54 5.16 5.84 6.59 7.25 7.79 8.40 9.31 10.08
BB 0.77 1.19 1.65 2.53 3.90 5.03 5.82 6.43 6.43 6.43 6.43 6.43 6.43 6.43 6.43
B 1.27 3.03 4.41 5.64 6.45 7.05 7.75 8.58 10.04 11.17 11.83 12.59 12.59 12.59 12.59
CCC/C 12.62 21.87 26.54 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31 29.31
Investment grade 0.21 0.89 1.61 2.30 2.85 3.55 4.20 4.77 5.40 6.10 6.71 7.38 8.13 8.96 9.67
Speculative grade 1.84 3.42 4.54 5.68 6.73 7.57 8.25 8.90 9.46 9.90 10.14 10.43 10.43 10.43 10.43
All rated 1.01 2.13 3.04 3.94 4.73 5.49 6.15 6.75 7.36 7.95 8.41 8.94 9.42 9.96 10.43
Transportation
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.18 0.38 0.59 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83
BB 0.00 0.37 1.20 1.67 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20
B 1.50 3.15 4.08 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12
CCC/C 10.87 15.96 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86
Investment grade 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.32 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45
Speculative grade 1.45 2.60 3.65 4.23 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56
All rated 0.26 0.55 0.81 1.00 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16
Social
AAA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.39 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 25.00 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 N/A N/A
CCC/C 11.11 28.89 46.67 64.44 64.44 64.44 64.44 64.44 64.44 64.44 64.44 64.44 64.44 N/A N/A
Investment grade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53
Speculative grade 0.51 1.08 1.71 2.42 3.21 4.09 5.11 6.32 7.77 7.77 7.77 7.77 7.77 7.77 7.77
All rated 0.08 0.16 0.25 0.34 0.45 0.57 0.71 0.87 1.05 1.26 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51
Other
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.38 0.61 0.86 1.13 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.74 1.74 1.74 1.74
BBB 0.24 0.61 0.86 1.24 1.64 1.91 2.18 2.32 2.46 2.74 3.19 3.50 3.82 3.82 3.82
BB 0.43 1.09 3.96 6.23 8.09 9.28 10.24 11.22 11.96 12.47 12.74 13.02 13.31 13.64 14.00
B 3.62 7.69 8.82 9.98 10.77 11.97 13.19 14.45 15.73 16.16 16.16 16.16 16.16 16.16 16.16
CCC/C 15.00 21.25 25.00 27.54 28.81 28.81 28.81 28.81 28.81 28.81 28.81 28.81 28.81 28.81 28.81
Investment grade 0.08 0.22 0.36 0.55 0.76 0.92 1.09 1.20 1.27 1.39 1.59 1.81 1.96 1.96 1.96
Speculative grade 2.93 5.28 7.67 9.59 11.03 12.10 13.06 14.02 14.86 15.29 15.44 15.60 15.77 15.95 16.16
All rated 0.81 1.53 2.28 2.95 3.51 3.93 4.33 4.70 5.00 5.22 5.41 5.60 5.76 5.82 5.88
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 30

All infrastructure cumulative default rates, 1981-2022
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
A 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.38 0.49 0.57 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.75 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.86 0.86
BBB 0.13 0.39 0.65 0.89 1.09 1.28 1.49 1.69 1.84 2.00 2.17 2.31 2.45 2.60 2.74
BB 0.26 0.70 1.48 2.26 2.94 3.37 3.62 3.93 4.19 4.33 4.43 4.54 4.60 4.67 4.74
B 1.66 3.60 4.97 6.21 7.05 7.82 8.37 8.83 9.40 9.76 9.85 9.95 9.95 9.95 9.95
CCC/C 13.81 21.16 25.03 27.61 28.51 29.23 30.26 30.81 31.11 31.11 31.11 31.11 31.11 31.11 31.11
Investment grade 0.10 0.27 0.44 0.60 0.74 0.87 0.99 1.11 1.19 1.29 1.39 1.48 1.56 1.62 1.69
Speculative grade 1.82 3.29 4.50 5.57 6.32 6.88 7.29 7.67 8.03 8.22 8.31 8.41 8.44 8.48 8.53
All rated 0.45 0.88 1.25 1.59 1.85 2.06 2.23 2.40 2.53 2.65 2.74 2.83 2.90 2.96 3.02
Nonfinancial corporate cumulative default rates
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.14 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.29 0.37
AA 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.31 0.36 0.41 0.46 0.50 0.55
A 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.19 0.29 0.41 0.57 0.73 0.89 1.05 1.20 1.34 1.48 1.61 1.75
BBB 0.12 0.33 0.60 0.95 1.34 1.74 2.08 2.41 2.73 3.05 3.34 3.57 3.77 3.97 4.19
BB 0.59 1.93 3.48 5.04 6.50 7.84 9.01 10.10 11.08 11.94 12.65 13.32 13.94 14.45 15.01
B 3.15 7.45 11.32 14.44 16.89 18.84 20.40 21.63 22.74 23.76 24.63 25.32 25.97 26.58 27.17
CCC/C 26.74 37.01 42.47 45.55 47.91 49.03 50.15 50.84 51.47 52.02 52.52 52.94 53.45 53.84 53.84
Investment grade 0.07 0.19 0.35 0.55 0.79 1.03 1.26 1.48 1.70 1.91 2.11 2.27 2.42 2.56 2.72
Speculative grade 3.73 7.25 10.28 12.76 14.79 16.44 17.81 18.95 19.97 20.89 21.66 22.32 22.94 23.49 24.03
All rated 1.91 3.74 5.31 6.63 7.73 8.64 9.40 10.05 10.62 11.15 11.60 11.97 12.31 12.62 12.93
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 31

Marginal default rates, 1981-2022
--Time horizon (years)--
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
All infrastructure
A 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.05
BBB 0.13 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.15 0.17
BB 0.26 0.43 0.79 0.79 0.69 0.45 0.26 0.32 0.26 0.14
B 1.66 1.98 1.42 1.30 0.90 0.83 0.60 0.50 0.63 0.39
All rated 0.45 0.43 0.38 0.34 0.27 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.13 0.12
Nonfinancial corporate
A 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.17
BBB 0.12 0.21 0.27 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.32
BB 0.59 1.35 1.58 1.61 1.54 1.43 1.27 1.21 1.09 0.97
B 3.15 4.44 4.18 3.52 2.87 2.35 1.92 1.54 1.41 1.33
All rated 1.91 1.86 1.63 1.39 1.18 0.99 0.84 0.71 0.64 0.59
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

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Table 32

Infrastructure rating distribution by region or country
Rating North America* U.S. EMEA Asia-Pacific Canada Latin America Total
Number of ratings
AAA 1 0 2 0 1 2 5
AA 15 5 16 0 10 10 41
A 177 117 142 7 60 24 350
BBB 259 214 223 52 45 54 588
BB 105 82 57 31 23 17 210
B 53 53 18 7 0 3 81
CCC/C 9 9 7 8 0 1 25
% rating distribution by region or country
AAA 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% n/a 0%
AA 2% 1% 3% 0% 7% 9% 3%
A 29% 24% 31% 7% 43% 22% 27%
BBB 42% 45% 48% 50% 32% 49% 45%
BB 17% 17% 12% 30% 17% 15% 16%
B 9% 11% 4% 7% 0% 3% 6%
CCC/C 1% 2% 2% 8% 0% 1% 2%
Variance in rating distribution from total by region or country
AAA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N/A 0%
AA -1% -2% 0% -3% 4% 6% 0%
A 2% -3% 4% -20% 16% -5% 0%
BBB -3% -1% 3% 4% -13% 3% 0%
BB 1% 1% -4% 13% 0% -1% 0%
B 2% 5% -2% 0% -6% -4% 0%
CCC/C 0% 0% 0% 6% -2% -1% 0%
N/A--Not applicable. Ratings as of Jan. 1, 2023. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 33

Infrastructure defaults
Issuer Type Subsector Debt type Country Region Default date Rating prior to default

Public Service Co. of New Hampshire

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/28/1988 CCC

Public Service Co. of New Hampshire

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/28/1988 CCC-

Public Service Co. of New Hampshire

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/28/1988 CCC-

Geothermal Resources International Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 8/11/1988 CC

Geothermal Resources International Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 8/11/1988 CC

Columbia Energy Group

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/31/1991 BB

Columbia Energy Group

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/31/1991 BB

Bonneville Pacific Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 12/6/1991 CCC-

Del Norte Funding Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/8/1992 CCC-

Del Norte Funding Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/8/1992 CCC-

El Paso Funding Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/8/1992 CCC-

El Paso Funding Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/8/1992 CCC-

El Paso Electric Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 4/27/1992 CCC

Mobile Energy Services Co. LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/15/1999 CCC

Southern California Edison Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/18/2001 CC

Southern California Edison Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/18/2001 CC

Southern California Edison Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/18/2001 CC

Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 4/9/2001 CC

Southern California Edison Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/5/2001 CC

York Power Funding (Cayman) Ltd.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured Cayman Islands U.S. 10/31/2001 BB-

Enron Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 CC

Enron Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 CC

Enron Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 C

Enron Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 C

Northern Natural Gas Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 CC

European Power Ltd. Co.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 12/5/2001 B-

Autopistas del Sol S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Transportation Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 2/1/2002 CC

Teesside Power Financing Ltd.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured Cayman Islands U.S. 2/18/2002 BB

Aguas Argentinas S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 2/19/2002 CC

Covanta Energy LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 3/1/2002 B

Covanta Energy LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Subordinated U.S. U.S. 3/1/2002 B-

Covanta Energy LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Subordinated U.S. U.S. 3/1/2002 B-

Inversora Electrica de Buenos Aires S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 3/15/2002 CC

Metrogas S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 4/2/2002 CC

Compania de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension TRANSENER S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 4/22/2002 CC

Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN)

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 5/7/2002 CC

Aguas Argentinas S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured Argentina Latin America 5/16/2002 CC

Azurix Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/18/2002 CC

Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN)

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 6/26/2002 CC

Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 7/3/2002 CC

Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 9/17/2002 CC

Engie Energia Chile S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured Chile Latin America 9/17/2002 CC

Energy Group Ltd. (The)

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 10/21/2002 CC

National Energy & Gas Transmission Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/14/2002 B-

TXU Eastern Funding Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 11/20/2002 CC

TXU Europe Ltd.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 11/20/2002 CC

EDF Energy Nuclear Generation Group Ltd.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 2/18/2003 C

CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured Brazil Latin America 4/23/2003 CC

CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured Brazil Latin America 4/23/2003 CC

NRG Energy Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/15/2003 CC

Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS)

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 5/16/2003 CC

Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS)

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 5/16/2003 CC

USGen New England, Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/8/2003 C

GenOn Americas LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/15/2003 CC

GenOn Americas LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/15/2003 CC

GenOn Energy Holdings Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/15/2003 CC

GenOn Mid-Atlantic LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 7/15/2003 CC

GenOn Mid-Atlantic LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 7/15/2003 CC

CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured Brazil Latin America 8/14/2003 CC

CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured Brazil Latin America 8/14/2003 CC

NorthWestern Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 9/15/2003 CCC

NorthWestern Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 9/15/2003 CCC

NorthWestern Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 9/15/2003 CC

Avon Energy Partners Holdings

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 1/16/2004 CC

TermoEmcali Funding Corp

Project Finance Other Senior Secured Colombia Latin America 9/15/2004 CC

Entergy New Orleans LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 10/18/2005 CC

Entergy New Orleans LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 10/18/2005 CC

Broad River Energy LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC-

Calpine Canada Energy Finance II ULC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Canada Canada 12/21/2005 CC

Calpine Canada Energy Finance ULC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Canada Canada 12/21/2005 CC

Calpine Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC-

Calpine Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CC

Calpine Generating Co. LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC

RockGen Energy LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC-

Rumford Power Assoc L.P.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC-

Eurotunnel S.A.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 8/16/2006 C

Fixed-Link Finance 2 B.V.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured Netherlands Europe, Middle East, Africa 3/16/2007 C

Autopistas del Sol S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Transportation Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 5/30/2007 B-

Metronet Rail BCV Finance PLC

Project Finance Transportation Senior Secured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 2/29/2008 CC

Metronet Rail SSL Finance PLC

Project Finance Transportation Senior Secured U.K. Europe, Middle East, Africa 2/29/2008 CC

Lane Cove Tunnel Finance Co. Pty Ltd.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured Australia Asia Pacific 12/8/2008 CC

OOO Mostransavto-Finance

Corporate Infrastructure Other Senior Unsecured Russia Europe, Middle East, Africa 12/24/2008 CC

Northeast Biofuels L.P.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/14/2009 C

Fixed-Link Finance B.V.

Project Finance Other Junior Subordinated Netherlands Europe, Middle East, Africa 3/4/2009 C

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/16/2009 CC

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/16/2009 CC

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/16/2009 CC

Vistra Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/16/2009 CC

Autopistas del Sol S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Transportation Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 12/17/2009 CC

Bosque Power Co. LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 3/26/2010 B

Metrogas S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Argentina Latin America 6/18/2010 CC

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 8/17/2010 CC

Boston Generating LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 8/18/2010 CC

Vistra Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2010 CCC

Vistra Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 4/20/2011 CC

Vistra Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 4/20/2011 CC

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/2/2011 CC

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/2/2011 CC

Dynegy Danskammer LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 11/8/2011 CC

Dynegy Holdings LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/8/2011 CC

Astoria Generating Co. Acquisitions LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 12/7/2011 CCC-

Par Pacific Holdings Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/19/2011 CC

AES Eastern Energy L.P.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/3/2012 CC

LSP Energy L.P.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/19/2012 CC

Bicent Power LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 4/20/2012 CC

Homer City Funding LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 10/10/2012 CC

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/6/2012 CC

Choctaw Generation L.P.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 12/14/2012 CC

Edison Mission Energy

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/17/2012 CCC-

Midwest Generation, LLC

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 12/17/2012 CCC+

Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/31/2013 CC

Vistra Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/31/2013 CC

Northland Resources A.B.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured Sweden Europe, Middle East, Africa 3/7/2013 C

Longview Power LLC

Project Finance Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 9/3/2013 CCC-

Breeze Finance S.A.

Project Finance Power Subordinated Luxembourg Europe, Middle East, Africa 10/31/2013 C

CRC Breeze Finance S.A.

Project Finance Power Secured Subordinated Debt Luxembourg Europe, Middle East, Africa 10/31/2013 C

Vistra Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 4/4/2014 CC

Energy Future Competitive Holdings Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 C

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 C

Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 C

Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 C

Vistra Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 CC

Windsor Petroleum Transport Corp.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 7/16/2014 CCC-

Schahin II Finance Company (SPV) Limited

Project Finance Oil & Gas Senior Secured Cayman Islands U.S. 10/1/2015 CC

Southcross Holdings Borrower LP

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 3/28/2016 CC

Ukrainian Railways JSC

Corporate Infrastructure Transportation Senior Secured Ukraine Europe, Middle East, Africa 3/31/2016 CC

Odebrecht Oil & Gas Finance Limited

Project Finance Oil & Gas Senior Secured Cayman Islands U.S. 4/20/2016 CC

Lombard Public Facilities Corp

Project Finance Social Infrastructure Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 6/30/2016 CC

Homer City Generation L.P.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 10/25/2016 CC

Illinois Power Generating Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/19/2016 CC

Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd.

Project Finance Oil & Gas Senior Secured Cayman Islands U.S. 4/3/2017 CCC-

GenOn Americas LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/14/2017 CC

GenOn Energy Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 6/14/2017 CCC

GenOn Energy Inc.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/14/2017 CCC-

Corporacion Electrica Nacional, S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Venezuela U.S. 11/10/2017 CC

ExGen Texas Power, LLC

Project Finance Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 11/13/2017 CCC-

Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd.

Project Finance Oil & Gas Senior Secured Cayman Islands U.S. 12/22/2017 CC

Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/24/2018 CCC-

Energy Harbor Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 4/2/2018 C

FirstEnergy Generation LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 4/2/2018 C

Corporacion Electrica Nacional, S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Venezuela Latin America 4/24/2018 CC

Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A.

Project Finance Other Senior Secured Luxembourg Europe, Middle East, Africa 5/9/2018 B+

Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A.

Project Finance Other Senior Unsecured Luxembourg Europe, Middle East, Africa 5/9/2018 B

Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 1/29/2019 CC

Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/29/2019 CC

PES Holdings, LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 7/3/2019 B-
Panda Green Energy Group Ltd. Corporate Infrastructure Utilities Senior Unsecured Bermuda U.S. 1/21/2020 CC

Longview Power LLC

Project Finance Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 4/14/2020 CC

Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A.

Corporate Infrastructure Transportation Senior Secured Argentina Latin America 5/19/2020 CC

CSI Compressco L.P.

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/16/2020 C

Ferrellgas Partners L.P.

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/16/2020 C

Summit Midstream Finance Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/23/2020 CCC-

Martin Midstream Partners L.P.

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 8/14/2020 CC

Summit Midstream Finance Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 9/25/2020 CC

Frontera Generation Holdings LLC

Project Finance Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 10/23/2020 CCC

Summit Midstream Partners Holdings LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 11/18/2020 C

Glass Mountain Pipeline Holdings LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 8/9/2021 CC

Ruby Pipeline LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 4/1/2022 CCC-

PSS Industrial Group Corp.

Corporate Infrastructure Oil & Gas Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 4/7/2022 CCC-

Talen Energy Supply LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Secured U.S. U.S. 5/10/2022 CCC+

Talen Energy Supply LLC

Corporate Infrastructure Power Senior Unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/10/2022 CC

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Ratings Performance Analytics:Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698;
nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
Zev R Gurwitz, New York + 1 (212) 438 7128;
zev.gurwitz@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Nivritti Mishra Richhariya, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai

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