Key Takeaways
- Infrastructure as an asset class has shown resilience, with a two-year average cumulative default rate from 1981 to 2022 of 0.9%, compared with 3.7% for global nonfinancial corporates.
- The number of infrastructure defaults rose to three in 2022 from one in 2021, with the default rate rising to 0.2% from 0.1%.
- Credit quality among infrastructure issuers fell for the third straight year, with 82 downgrades versus 65 upgrades, although this was a smaller difference than 2021 (151 downgrades and 66 upgrades) and 2020 (238 downgrades and 36 upgrades).
- The defaults for the year were Ruby Pipeline LLC and Talen Energy Supply LLC (which defaulted once on senior secured and once on senior unsecured debt).
S&P Global Ratings' infrastructure default tally rose to three in 2022, up from one in 2021 (see chart 1). The default rate rose to 0.2% in 2022, up from 0.1% in 2021. Investment-grade (IG) defaults are rare, averaging 0.6 per year since 1981 (see table 1), compared to 2.9 speculative-grade (SG) defaults per year. There were no IG defaults in 2022 for the third year in a row and in 13 of the last 14 years, while the SG default rate rose to 0.8% in 2022, up from 0.3% in 2021. Over the same timeframe, the global corporate SG default rate rose to 1.9% in 2022 from 1.7% in 2021.
Chart 1
Historically, SG issues have defaulted at a higher rate than IG, with a default rate of 1.8% compared to 0.1% for IG. 2001 was one major outlier, when there were 10 IG defaults compared to only one SG default due to the effects of the failure of Enron Corp. and the related challenges faced by the unregulated utilities sector during the 2001-2003 power market crisis in the U.S.
Table 1
| All infrastructure default summary | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total defaults* | Rated defaults | Investment-grade defaults | Speculative-grade defaults | Default rate (%) | Investment-grade default rate (%) | Speculative-grade default rate (%) | |||||||||
| 1981 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1982 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1983 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1984 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1985 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1986 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1987 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1988 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 11.36 | |||||||||
| 1989 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1990 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1991 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 2.94 | |||||||||
| 1992 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 12.82 | |||||||||
| 1993 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1994 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1998 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1999 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.27 | |||||||||
| 2000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 2001 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 1.47 | 1.54 | 1.05 | |||||||||
| 2002 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 2.27 | 0.97 | 10.43 | |||||||||
| 2003 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 1.57 | 0.15 | 7.14 | |||||||||
| 2004 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 1.03 | |||||||||
| 2005 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.02 | 0.26 | 3.90 | |||||||||
| 2006 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 2007 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.90 | |||||||||
| 2008 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.12 | 1.26 | |||||||||
| 2009 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 2.93 | |||||||||
| 2010 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.88 | |||||||||
| 2011 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 2.48 | |||||||||
| 2012 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 2.82 | |||||||||
| 2013 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 2.14 | |||||||||
| 2014 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 2.33 | |||||||||
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.30 | |||||||||
| 2016 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 1.69 | |||||||||
| 2017 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.39 | |||||||||
| 2018 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.36 | |||||||||
| 2019 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.28 | |||||||||
| 2020 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 2.47 | |||||||||
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.27 | |||||||||
| 2022 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1.12 | |||||||||
| *Includes defaults that were observed in the same year as the initial rating. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||
Infrastructure upgrades in 2022 fell slightly to 65 (20 IG and 45 SG) from 66 (25 IG and 41 SG) in 2021, while downgrades fell sharply to 85 (51 IG and 34 SG) from 151 (96 IG and 55 SG). (See chart 2.)
Chart 2
In 2022, oil and gas infrastructure saw the most upgrades, driven by improvements in the U.S. domestic energy production sector. The power segment had the most downgrades due to extreme market volatility in power markets both in the U.S. and Europe, combined with refinancing challenges faced by speculative-grade U.S. coal generators. Other downgrade drivers related to regulated utilities were rising capital spending and high commodity prices (for more information, see "Regulated Utilities: Credit Quality Should Stabilize," published July 18, 2023). In the U.K., there was a continued downward trend on our ratings of private finance initiative (PFI) hospital projects whose below-target service and maintenance quality levels have resulted in strained relationships with National Health Service Trusts (see chart 3).
Chart 3
The infrastructure sector peaked at 1,486 ratings in 2018, from a low of 290 in 1990 (see chart 4). The majority of ratings remain investment grade, from a high of 95% in 1981 to 74% at the start of 2022.
The lowest rating category, 'CCC/C', usually sees the most default activity. At the start of 2022, there were 32 infrastructure entities rated in the 'CCC/C' category, one below the all-time high of 33 at the start of 2021. As of Jan. 1, 2023, that number had dropped to 25. The largest sector in terms of ratings has always been utilities, with oil and gas rising to the second-largest sector since 2011 (see chart 5)
Chart 4
Chart 5
This study covers infrastructure ratings in utilities (covering both regulated and unregulated entities), oil and gas (mostly midstream issuers), transportation, power (independent power producers and project financings), social infrastructure, and other industries covered under our corporate and project finance methodologies. The study also includes a small number of infrastructure issues rated under U.S. public finance and international public finance methodologies.
Part of our analysis is a high frequency of transitions to 'NR' (not rated) because the study covers issue ratings; issues tend to be paid off and, thus, move to not rated. This stands in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.
Regional Trends
The U.S. and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) have the most infrastructure ratings by region, with 480 and 465, respectively. Canada, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America form a lower tier with between 139 and 105 ratings each (see chart 6). All regions are mostly investment grade, ranging from 82% for EMEA down to 56% for Latin America. By total speculative-grade ratings, the U.S. leads with 144, followed by EMEA with 82.
Chart 6
Subsector Default Trends
By subsector, utilities (notably those that have unregulated activities) account for the most rated infrastructure defaults since 1981 (49%), followed by power (19%) (see chart 7). Combined, these subsectors account for 58% of annual rated infrastructure issue defaults.
Defaults in the power segment in particular appear overrepresented--power accounts for 8% of all historical infrastructure issue ratings captured in this study. As mentioned before, this is due to the spike in defaults during the 2001-2003 merchant power crisis in the U.S., and more generally due to a higher share of speculative-grade entities and projects.
Chart 7
Overall default rates have been consistently low since 2015. Before that, there were periods of credit stress, especially in 2001 and from 2009 to 2014 (see chart 8). Only corporate infrastructure projects saw defaults in 2022, with a trailing 12-month default rate of 0.6% for the Jan. 1, 2022, static pool.
Chart 8
We subdivide infrastructure ratings into corporate issues and project finance issues. Corporate issues are the far larger section, comprising all utilities and most oil and gas. Project finance includes all social projects as well as a majority of power issues (see chart 9).
Chart 9
Historical Default Cycles
In general, infrastructure's relative peak default rates aligned with those of nonfinancial corporates during the 2001 recession, although key drivers behind the spike were quite different--respectively, the power market crisis in the U.S. versus the burst of the dotcom bubble. By contrast, the infrastructure sector made it through the 2008-2009 global financial crisis relatively unscathed, with a peak default rate under 1%, compared with 6% for nonfinancial corporates (see chart 10).
On a trailing 12-month basis, the overall infrastructure default rate was higher than the nonfinancial default rate only from December 2005 through November 2006. This was largely because of the Dec. 21, 2005, bankruptcy filing of Calpine Corp. (a corporate infrastructure power developer and energy merchant company), which covered five defaulting instruments in our dataset.
The lower infrastructure default rate over time reflects its higher average credit quality translating into a consistently lower proportion of issues rated in the 'B' and 'CCC'/'C' categories compared with nonfinancial corporates.
Chart 10
Cumulative default rates are a historical summary of rating performance. For example, cumulative default rates for the power subsegment reflect the exceptionally high default rate amid the energy crisis in the early 2000s. Since the end of that period, many ratings have been repositioned, and we have incorporated any analytical lessons into our power ratings.
The distribution of ratings within a rating category influences the weighted average default rates (e.g., within the broader 'BBB' rating category, the share of 'BBB-' versus 'BBB' versus 'BBB+') (see tables 2-4). Because 'BBB-' ratings have a materially higher default rate expectation than 'BBB+', it somewhat limits the perfect comparability of default rates by category. Also, the sample sizes of infrastructure subsegments vary.
Table 2
| Cumulative default rates, infrastructure and nonfinancial corporate, 1981-2022 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | ||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | ||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.49 | 0.75 | 0.86 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.13 | 1.09 | 2.00 | 2.74 | ||||||
| BB | 0.26 | 2.94 | 4.33 | 4.74 | ||||||
| B | 1.66 | 7.05 | 9.76 | 9.95 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 13.81 | 28.51 | 31.11 | 31.11 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.10 | 0.74 | 1.29 | 1.69 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.82 | 6.32 | 8.22 | 8.53 | ||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 1.85 | 2.65 | 3.02 | ||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.37 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.31 | 0.55 | ||||||
| A | 0.03 | 0.29 | 1.05 | 1.75 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 1.34 | 3.05 | 4.19 | ||||||
| BB | 0.59 | 6.50 | 11.94 | 15.01 | ||||||
| B | 3.15 | 16.89 | 23.76 | 27.17 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 26.74 | 47.91 | 52.02 | 53.84 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.79 | 1.91 | 2.72 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.73 | 14.79 | 20.89 | 24.03 | ||||||
| All rated | 1.91 | 7.73 | 11.15 | 12.93 | ||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
Table 3
| Cumulative default rates, corporate infrastructure and project finance, 1981-2022 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | ||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | ||||||
| A | 0.10 | 0.53 | 0.78 | 0.82 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.16 | 1.07 | 1.84 | 2.43 | ||||||
| BB | 0.07 | 2.27 | 2.88 | 3.10 | ||||||
| B | 2.33 | 9.90 | 10.61 | 10.61 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 18.69 | 35.15 | 39.80 | 39.80 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.12 | 0.72 | 1.16 | 1.44 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 2.40 | 7.21 | 8.24 | 8.38 | ||||||
| All rated | 0.38 | 1.47 | 1.98 | 2.25 | ||||||
| Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| A | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.69 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.09 | 1.34 | 3.20 | 4.76 | ||||||
| BB | 0.42 | 2.36 | 3.38 | 3.38 | ||||||
| B | 1.02 | 5.63 | 9.08 | 9.64 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 10.61 | 22.23 | 24.05 | 24.05 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.80 | 1.74 | 2.52 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.34 | 4.97 | 7.05 | 7.29 | ||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 2.02 | 3.26 | 3.92 | ||||||
| Project finance | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1.29 | 2.01 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.07 | 0.92 | 1.33 | 1.82 | ||||||
| BB | 0.33 | 4.44 | 7.26 | 8.37 | ||||||
| B | 2.13 | 6.70 | 10.56 | 10.56 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 11.04 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.05 | 0.79 | 1.28 | 1.79 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.75 | 6.92 | 9.83 | 10.51 | ||||||
| All rated | 0.62 | 2.86 | 4.16 | 4.72 | ||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
Table 4
| Average cumulative default rates (1981- 2022) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| All infrastructure | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 1.39 | 1.48 | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.69 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.81 | 3.26 | 4.47 | 5.54 | 6.28 | 6.85 | 7.26 | 7.64 | 7.99 | 8.19 | 8.28 | 8.38 | 8.41 | 8.45 | 8.50 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 0.87 | 1.24 | 1.58 | 1.84 | 2.05 | 2.23 | 2.39 | 2.52 | 2.64 | 2.74 | 2.82 | 2.89 | 2.96 | 3.02 | |||||||||||||||||
| Project finance | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 1.28 | 1.49 | 1.66 | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.79 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.75 | 3.23 | 4.69 | 5.89 | 6.92 | 7.67 | 8.27 | 8.92 | 9.54 | 9.83 | 9.93 | 10.05 | 10.18 | 10.33 | 10.51 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.62 | 1.23 | 1.84 | 2.38 | 2.86 | 3.18 | 3.46 | 3.73 | 3.97 | 4.16 | 4.33 | 4.49 | 4.61 | 4.66 | 4.72 | |||||||||||||||||
| Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.38 | 1.56 | 1.74 | 1.88 | 2.03 | 2.19 | 2.37 | 2.52 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.34 | 2.54 | 3.44 | 4.27 | 4.97 | 5.56 | 6.03 | 6.41 | 6.76 | 7.05 | 7.16 | 7.29 | 7.29 | 7.29 | 7.29 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 0.92 | 1.32 | 1.70 | 2.02 | 2.33 | 2.59 | 2.83 | 3.04 | 3.26 | 3.39 | 3.53 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 3.92 | |||||||||||||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.45 | 0.59 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 1.16 | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.39 | 1.44 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 2.40 | 4.13 | 5.44 | 6.64 | 7.21 | 7.59 | 7.82 | 7.99 | 8.18 | 8.24 | 8.31 | 8.38 | 8.38 | 8.38 | 8.38 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.38 | 0.74 | 1.03 | 1.29 | 1.47 | 1.61 | 1.72 | 1.84 | 1.92 | 1.98 | 2.05 | 2.11 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.25 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 0.74 | 1.48 | 2.08 | 2.58 | 3.04 | 3.47 | 3.66 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.01 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.30 | 0.61 | 0.89 | 1.14 | 1.36 | 1.56 | 1.68 | 1.79 | 1.86 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 | |||||||||||||||||
| Power | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.21 | 0.89 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.85 | 3.55 | 4.20 | 4.77 | 5.40 | 6.10 | 6.71 | 7.38 | 8.13 | 8.96 | 9.67 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.84 | 3.42 | 4.54 | 5.68 | 6.73 | 7.57 | 8.25 | 8.90 | 9.46 | 9.90 | 10.14 | 10.43 | 10.43 | 10.43 | 10.43 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.01 | 2.13 | 3.04 | 3.94 | 4.73 | 5.49 | 6.15 | 6.75 | 7.36 | 7.95 | 8.41 | 8.94 | 9.42 | 9.96 | 10.43 | |||||||||||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.45 | 2.60 | 3.65 | 4.23 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.26 | 0.55 | 0.81 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | |||||||||||||||||
| Social infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 0.51 | 1.08 | 1.71 | 2.42 | 3.21 | 4.09 | 5.11 | 6.32 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.87 | 1.05 | 1.26 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | |||||||||||||||||
| Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 1.09 | 1.20 | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.59 | 1.81 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 2.93 | 5.28 | 7.67 | 9.59 | 11.03 | 12.10 | 13.06 | 14.02 | 14.86 | 15.29 | 15.44 | 15.60 | 15.77 | 15.95 | 16.16 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.81 | 1.53 | 2.28 | 2.95 | 3.51 | 3.93 | 4.33 | 4.70 | 5.00 | 5.22 | 5.41 | 5.60 | 5.76 | 5.82 | 5.88 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 0.55 | 0.79 | 1.03 | 1.26 | 1.48 | 1.70 | 1.91 | 2.11 | 2.27 | 2.42 | 2.56 | 2.72 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.73 | 7.25 | 10.28 | 12.76 | 14.79 | 16.44 | 17.81 | 18.95 | 19.97 | 20.89 | 21.66 | 22.32 | 22.94 | 23.49 | 24.03 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.91 | 3.74 | 5.31 | 6.63 | 7.73 | 8.64 | 9.40 | 10.05 | 10.62 | 11.15 | 11.60 | 11.97 | 12.31 | 12.62 | 12.93 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Among defaulting issues, there is generally a positive correlation between initial ratings and time to default--meaning higher initial ratings often have longer times to default (see chart 11). The shortest time to default in our dataset was for a GenOn Energy Inc. issue, which defaulted in June 2017, just 26 days after we initially rated it 'CCC+'. Conversely, the longest time to default was for a Public Service Co. of New Hampshire issue, which defaulted in January 1988, nearly 26 years after receiving an initial rating of 'A'.
Chart 11
We define the marginal default rate as the percentage of rated projects that default within a given number of years. On average, the marginal default rate for infrastructure issues is highest in the first three years and then steadily declines (see table 5). This is notably the case for speculative-grade ratings, while investment-grade ratings tend to have persistently low marginal default rates.
Table 5
| Marginal default rates: All infrastructure and nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||||||||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||
| BB | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.14 | ||||||||||||
| B | 1.66 | 1.98 | 1.42 | 1.30 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.39 | ||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 13.81 | 8.53 | 4.91 | 3.44 | 1.25 | 1.01 | 1.45 | 0.79 | 0.43 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.10 | ||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.82 | 1.50 | 1.26 | 1.12 | 0.79 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.21 | ||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.32 | ||||||||||||
| BB | 0.59 | 1.35 | 1.58 | 1.61 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.27 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||
| B | 3.15 | 4.44 | 4.18 | 3.52 | 2.87 | 2.35 | 1.92 | 1.54 | 1.41 | 1.33 | ||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 26.74 | 14.02 | 8.66 | 5.36 | 4.33 | 2.14 | 2.21 | 1.37 | 1.30 | 1.14 | ||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | ||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.73 | 3.66 | 3.27 | 2.76 | 2.34 | 1.93 | 1.64 | 1.38 | 1.26 | 1.15 | ||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.91 | 1.86 | 1.63 | 1.39 | 1.18 | 0.99 | 0.84 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.59 | ||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Historical Rating Action Cycles
As in most sectors, historical rating actions in infrastructure are more often negative than positive (see chart 12). Downgrades outnumbered upgrades 3,615 to 2,649 from 1981 through 2022. By year, downgrades exceeded upgrades in 28 of those 42 years (see table 6).
Chart 12
Table 6
| Infrastructure rating movement total (1981-2022) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades | Downgrades | Difference | Downgrades/Upgrades | |||||||
| Power | 208 | 394 | -186 | 1.9 | ||||||
| Transportation | 161 | 280 | -119 | 1.7 | ||||||
| Utilities | 1573 | 1954 | -381 | 1.2 | ||||||
| Oil and gas | 453 | 512 | -59 | 1.1 | ||||||
| Social infrastructure | 66 | 107 | -41 | 1.6 | ||||||
| Other | 188 | 361 | -173 | 1.9 | ||||||
| Total | 2649 | 3608 | -959 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Note: Does not include defaults. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
The number of annual downgrades peaked in 2020 during the pandemic-related global recession at 238--slightly more than the previous high of 214 in 2002.
Infrastructure downgrades accelerated in the early 2000s amid both a U.S. recession and as utilities and merchant power entities experienced credit stress during a period of power market deregulation in the U.S. From 2000 to 2004, infrastructure downgrades plus defaults totaled 747, compared with 229 upgrades.
Infrastructure upgrades peaked in 2007 at 155. The second-highest total was 141 upgrades in 2017.
The period with the highest number of upgrades minus downgrades was from 2006 to 2008. This followed the period with the lowest number of upgrades minus downgrades, from 1998 to 2005.
Table 7
| Project finance and corporate infrastructure rating movement | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Upgrades-- | --Downgrades-- | --Defaults-- | ||||||||||||
| Number | Average annual % | Number | Average annual % | Number | Average annual % | |||||||||
| Utilities | 1573 | 8.3 | 1954 | 10.3 | 73 | 0.4 | ||||||||
| Project finance | 375 | 6.3 | 671 | 11.3 | 37 | 0.6 | ||||||||
| Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities | 701 | 8.0 | 983 | 11.3 | 39 | 0.4 | ||||||||
| All infrastructure | 2649 | 7.9 | 3608 | 10.7 | 149 | 0.4 | ||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||
Rating Transitions
Transition tables detail ratings changes over time. Each cell in the table represents the weighted average percentage of ratings that maintain a rating or transition to a different rating during a given time horizon. The rows indicate the rating at the start of the period, and the columns show how those ratings are distributed at the end of the period (see table 8). The highest values in the transition matrix are along the diagonal, indicating that a high proportion of these issue ratings do not change during a given period. The proportion of ratings that have transitioned higher are to the left of the diagonal, and the proportion of ratings that have transitioned lower are to the right.
The 'A' and 'BBB' categories are typically the most stable. While the 'AAA' and 'AA' category are more likely to transition to a lower rating category (but far away from default), we note the small sample sizes of issues in these categories.
In table 8, note the large percentages of withdrawn ratings (not rated, or NR) as time increases. This is because issues naturally tend to be paid off and thus move to not rated. This is in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.
When analyzing rating stability or the percentage of unchanged ratings (on the top right to bottom left diagonal), the number needs to be put in context and would be meaningfully higher if one excluded the high percentage of infrastructure issue ratings that we have withdrawn, as indicated in the NR column. For example, after five years, over 38% of infrastructure issue ratings in the 'BBB' category have been withdrawn, compared with just over 22% of nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings in the same category (see table 9).
Even if we believe the bulk of the withdrawn ratings would have remained in the same category, we cannot exclude some could have moved lower or higher. The result is less precise comparisons between the transition tables of infrastructure issue ratings and nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings.
Table 8
| Infrastructure average transition rates (1981-2022) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | |||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 83.85 | 7.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.95 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.36 | 83.55 | 8.19 | 0.53 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.16 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 1.02 | 85.43 | 5.59 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 7.61 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2.48 | 85.49 | 2.67 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 8.74 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 6.55 | 72.78 | 6.94 | 0.96 | 0.26 | 12.38 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.90 | 8.92 | 67.22 | 7.07 | 1.66 | 14.04 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 2.30 | 10.44 | 54.69 | 13.81 | 17.70 | |||||||||||
| Three years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 55.93 | 14.82 | 1.78 | 1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.89 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.78 | 59.42 | 16.54 | 1.99 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.83 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 2.17 | 63.01 | 11.79 | 0.59 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 21.76 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.01 | 0.04 | 5.84 | 63.03 | 4.41 | 1.14 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 24.24 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 12.49 | 40.55 | 8.86 | 2.19 | 1.49 | 34.18 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 3.52 | 14.67 | 30.76 | 8.25 | 5.21 | 37.17 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 3.61 | 10.84 | 16.06 | 26.10 | 41.77 | |||||||||||
| Five years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 34.69 | 17.04 | 1.83 | 4.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 41.58 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.93 | 41.77 | 19.38 | 3.08 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.22 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 2.49 | 47.18 | 13.62 | 0.75 | 0.32 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 34.87 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.03 | 0.05 | 7.27 | 46.90 | 4.43 | 1.45 | 0.74 | 1.17 | 37.96 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 13.60 | 23.79 | 5.97 | 1.85 | 3.02 | 51.22 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 4.90 | 12.49 | 13.27 | 4.36 | 7.35 | 57.20 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.98 | 1.54 | 7.71 | 5.29 | 30.40 | 53.08 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 9
| Nonfinancial corporate average transition rates (1981-2022) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | |||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 87.07 | 8.34 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.61 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.52 | 87.01 | 7.68 | 0.65 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.94 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 1.15 | 88.34 | 6.20 | 0.32 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 3.78 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.01 | 0.04 | 2.74 | 87.65 | 3.53 | 0.42 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 5.39 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 4.27 | 78.43 | 6.91 | 0.51 | 0.59 | 9.17 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 4.30 | 74.64 | 5.01 | 3.15 | 12.70 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 13.42 | 44.48 | 26.74 | 14.73 | |||||||||||
| Three years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 66.55 | 19.10 | 3.50 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.15 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.18 | 66.31 | 18.37 | 2.38 | 0.53 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 10.90 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.05 | 2.67 | 69.61 | 14.54 | 1.24 | 0.53 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 11.19 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.02 | 0.13 | 6.79 | 68.70 | 7.30 | 1.58 | 0.24 | 0.62 | 14.61 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 9.61 | 49.82 | 11.99 | 1.20 | 3.55 | 23.44 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.51 | 8.44 | 41.98 | 5.59 | 11.72 | 31.59 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.48 | 1.41 | 14.76 | 9.76 | 45.45 | 28.05 | |||||||||||
| Five years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 52.57 | 24.52 | 5.43 | 1.13 | 0.56 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.72 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.49 | 50.48 | 24.80 | 4.33 | 0.81 | 0.49 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 17.49 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.05 | 3.47 | 56.24 | 19.10 | 2.04 | 0.85 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 17.84 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.03 | 0.20 | 8.95 | 56.40 | 8.29 | 2.22 | 0.32 | 1.42 | 22.18 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.70 | 11.59 | 34.63 | 11.90 | 1.24 | 6.74 | 33.15 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 1.07 | 8.95 | 25.19 | 3.41 | 17.79 | 43.40 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.68 | 2.32 | 11.00 | 2.54 | 49.57 | 33.84 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 10
| Infrastructure average transition rates (1981-2022) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | AAA | AA+ | AA | AA- | A+ | A | A- | BBB+ | BBB | BBB- | BB+ | BB | BB- | B+ | B | B- | CCC+ | CCC | CCC- | CC | C | D | NR | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 83.85 | 4.86 | 2.14 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA+ | 2.84 | 73.86 | 6.82 | 5.11 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 2.72 | 78.55 | 6.34 | 3.42 | 1.01 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.85 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.90 | 76.35 | 9.98 | 1.98 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.62 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A+ | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 4.92 | 71.28 | 10.79 | 2.76 | 1.14 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 8.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 4.17 | 76.89 | 7.50 | 2.31 | 0.74 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 7.59 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.43 | 4.29 | 78.65 | 7.24 | 1.27 | 0.41 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 7.35 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.82 | 5.44 | 74.71 | 8.46 | 0.96 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 8.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1.17 | 6.56 | 75.15 | 6.50 | 0.85 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 8.49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB- | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 1.09 | 7.21 | 75.25 | 3.87 | 1.38 | 0.74 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 9.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 2.50 | 10.78 | 61.21 | 6.38 | 3.42 | 1.64 | 1.12 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 11.90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.29 | 2.26 | 9.26 | 63.68 | 5.98 | 2.12 | 2.41 | 0.73 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 11.74 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 2.22 | 3.02 | 7.94 | 57.30 | 9.29 | 2.54 | 1.90 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 13.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.44 | 0.99 | 1.54 | 1.76 | 10.98 | 51.15 | 11.20 | 4.50 | 1.21 | 0.66 | 0.55 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.77 | 13.61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1.73 | 4.33 | 12.41 | 45.17 | 11.98 | 3.90 | 1.59 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 1.44 | 15.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.79 | 1.39 | 2.38 | 14.48 | 47.82 | 11.11 | 2.78 | 2.18 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 3.57 | 13.10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 13.66 | 43.17 | 4.41 | 7.05 | 1.76 | 0.88 | 4.41 | 19.38 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 1.44 | 0.00 | 2.88 | 5.76 | 5.04 | 38.13 | 12.95 | 7.19 | 0.72 | 9.35 | 15.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.41 | 2.27 | 12.50 | 27.27 | 12.50 | 3.41 | 17.05 | 18.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 | 0.00 | 29.63 | 2.47 | 39.51 | 16.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| C | 10.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.67 | 0.00 | 3.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.33 | 0.00 | 30.00 | 26.67 | 20.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Three years | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 55.93 | 10.28 | 4.15 | 0.40 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA+ | 4.22 | 41.57 | 11.14 | 11.14 | 2.41 | 0.90 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.63 | 4.49 | 49.37 | 12.21 | 4.49 | 4.18 | 2.71 | 1.04 | 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA- | 0.07 | 0.35 | 6.35 | 47.18 | 15.66 | 4.58 | 2.82 | 0.56 | 1.55 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A+ | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.37 | 7.48 | 37.45 | 16.45 | 7.35 | 2.80 | 1.43 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 23.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.17 | 8.26 | 46.22 | 13.82 | 5.33 | 2.13 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 21.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1.13 | 9.22 | 49.42 | 12.99 | 3.57 | 0.81 | 0.44 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.25 | 21.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 2.04 | 11.27 | 43.79 | 13.07 | 3.47 | 0.55 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.65 | 23.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 3.37 | 12.11 | 44.53 | 10.59 | 1.65 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 23.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB- | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.71 | 3.96 | 13.07 | 43.55 | 4.79 | 2.29 | 1.56 | 0.66 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.90 | 26.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.80 | 4.95 | 14.93 | 27.24 | 8.89 | 4.22 | 3.20 | 1.31 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 30.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 1.54 | 6.64 | 10.04 | 28.42 | 7.77 | 3.16 | 2.75 | 1.86 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 1.70 | 34.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB- | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.46 | 1.20 | 4.98 | 4.98 | 7.75 | 21.59 | 7.10 | 3.78 | 3.78 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 2.58 | 38.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1.81 | 2.54 | 4.35 | 3.99 | 10.75 | 17.87 | 9.54 | 5.19 | 2.90 | 1.33 | 0.97 | 0.48 | 0.24 | 3.50 | 34.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1.11 | 2.06 | 2.38 | 3.17 | 8.25 | 8.41 | 13.02 | 7.78 | 3.81 | 1.75 | 0.79 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 5.08 | 41.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 1.35 | 0.68 | 3.15 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 10.14 | 15.54 | 8.11 | 1.58 | 3.83 | 0.68 | 0.23 | 8.56 | 37.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC+ | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1.08 | 3.78 | 0.54 | 4.32 | 9.19 | 9.73 | 1.08 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 12.97 | 53.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 3.10 | 0.78 | 4.65 | 7.75 | 0.78 | 8.53 | 6.98 | 8.53 | 2.33 | 25.58 | 28.68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.33 | 4.00 | 8.00 | 5.33 | 2.67 | 22.67 | 46.67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 3.75 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 52.50 | 31.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.45 | 48.28 | 41.38 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Five years | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 34.69 | 10.55 | 4.26 | 2.23 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.25 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 41.58 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA+ | 3.57 | 24.03 | 7.14 | 13.64 | 4.87 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 42.86 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.98 | 3.80 | 31.09 | 12.17 | 5.11 | 5.54 | 4.46 | 0.87 | 0.98 | 0.87 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 32.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA- | 0.30 | 0.15 | 5.44 | 31.84 | 14.17 | 5.97 | 4.77 | 2.16 | 1.27 | 0.45 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A+ | 0.14 | 0.21 | 2.10 | 5.82 | 20.18 | 14.51 | 10.16 | 3.85 | 2.10 | 0.42 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 38.61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 1.67 | 8.73 | 29.81 | 13.04 | 6.88 | 3.04 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.69 | 33.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A- | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.33 | 1.70 | 10.44 | 32.61 | 12.75 | 4.67 | 1.35 | 0.55 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.49 | 34.34 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB+ | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 2.99 | 12.55 | 27.80 | 12.23 | 3.70 | 0.83 | 0.27 | 0.62 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 36.32 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.66 | 4.89 | 12.60 | 28.23 | 10.22 | 1.63 | 1.20 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.93 | 36.80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB- | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.90 | 5.95 | 12.62 | 26.36 | 3.68 | 2.29 | 1.93 | 0.85 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 0.44 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 1.47 | 40.71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB+ | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.82 | 8.09 | 11.37 | 14.23 | 5.23 | 5.23 | 2.53 | 1.06 | 0.74 | 0.33 | 0.74 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 2.70 | 45.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1.01 | 3.12 | 8.25 | 7.33 | 14.39 | 5.68 | 2.47 | 1.10 | 1.65 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 2.57 | 51.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1.39 | 0.86 | 4.06 | 5.03 | 4.39 | 8.98 | 4.60 | 2.03 | 2.35 | 1.18 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 3.96 | 58.72 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 1.53 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 4.60 | 6.69 | 7.25 | 4.18 | 4.46 | 1.26 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 5.16 | 53.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.36 | 0.18 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 4.29 | 4.46 | 3.57 | 4.11 | 3.57 | 1.25 | 0.54 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 7.50 | 61.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.51 | 1.26 | 1.77 | 2.78 | 3.79 | 1.26 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 1.01 | 2.27 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 11.11 | 58.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 4.40 | 5.66 | 1.89 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 15.09 | 67.92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.80 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 0.00 | 30.40 | 47.20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.41 | 2.94 | 1.47 | 2.94 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 30.88 | 54.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 1.35 | 4.05 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.41 | 32.43 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | 46.43 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Focusing on the 'BBB' category, which is generally the largest infrastructure rating category, allows for comparison among infrastructure subsectors (see table 11). Social infrastructure ratings have historically been the most likely to remain in the 'BBB' category across one-year, three-year, and five-year time horizons--in part due to the greater revenue stability conferred by availability payments, which are more common in this subsector.
Table 11
| 'BBB' category transition rates by subsector (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Transition | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | Higher | Lower | Total | ||||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 87.66 | 2.96 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.33 | 0.86 | 3.14 | 4.01 | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.51 | 84.36 | 2.05 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 9.55 | 3.51 | 2.58 | 6.09 | ||||||||||||||
| Power | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 88.19 | 4.17 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.23 | 5.56 | 0.77 | 5.48 | 6.25 | ||||||||||||||
| Social | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1.90 | 90.09 | 3.39 | 0.41 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.17 | 3.93 | 6.11 | ||||||||||||||
| Transportation | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.95 | 86.75 | 2.89 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 7.56 | 1.95 | 3.74 | 5.69 | ||||||||||||||
| Other | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 80.58 | 4.56 | 0.60 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 12.95 | 0.84 | 5.64 | 6.47 | ||||||||||||||
| Three years | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.72 | 70.09 | 5.41 | 1.41 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 21.07 | 1.72 | 7.12 | 8.84 | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.26 | 60.66 | 3.12 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.72 | 26.20 | 8.26 | 4.88 | 13.14 | ||||||||||||||
| Power | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 | 68.95 | 6.42 | 3.12 | 1.04 | 1.82 | 17.61 | 1.04 | 12.40 | 13.44 | ||||||||||||||
| Social | 0.00 | 0.78 | 5.12 | 74.07 | 8.23 | 1.09 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 10.40 | 5.90 | 9.63 | 15.53 | ||||||||||||||
| Transportation | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.20 | 63.00 | 6.58 | 0.69 | 1.18 | 0.39 | 22.96 | 5.20 | 8.83 | 14.03 | ||||||||||||||
| Other | 0.13 | 0.00 | 2.01 | 50.00 | 5.15 | 3.02 | 2.51 | 0.88 | 36.31 | 2.14 | 11.56 | 13.69 | ||||||||||||||
| Five years | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.21 | 57.83 | 5.53 | 2.39 | 0.58 | 0.23 | 31.22 | 2.21 | 8.74 | 10.95 | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.06 | 43.79 | 2.79 | 0.65 | 0.54 | 1.13 | 41.05 | 10.06 | 5.10 | 15.16 | ||||||||||||||
| Power | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 54.27 | 7.55 | 3.98 | 1.49 | 3.48 | 28.43 | 0.80 | 16.50 | 17.30 | ||||||||||||||
| Social | 0.00 | 1.10 | 7.92 | 62.43 | 11.42 | 1.10 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 15.47 | 9.02 | 13.08 | 22.10 | ||||||||||||||
| Transportation | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.60 | 45.74 | 7.32 | 2.40 | 0.60 | 0.96 | 36.37 | 6.60 | 11.28 | 17.89 | ||||||||||||||
| Other | 0.39 | 0.00 | 2.49 | 30.54 | 4.46 | 2.36 | 2.23 | 1.70 | 55.83 | 2.88 | 10.75 | 13.63 | ||||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gini Coefficients
The Gini coefficient--a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--is a measure of the relative ability of ratings to differentiate default risk. Infrastructure Lorenz curves vary in their similarity to ideal curves, and Gini coefficients fall within a wide range. Over one-year, three-year, and five-year horizons, the coefficients for infrastructure as a whole--at 78%, 68%, and 63%, respectively--show a strong relationship between lower ratings and the propensity to default (see table 12).
Table 12
| All infrastructure Gini coefficients (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-year | 77.3 | |||
| Three-year | 68.4 | |||
| Five-year | 62.7 | |||
| Three-year | ||||
| Social infrastructure | 99.7 | |||
| Transportation | 83.8 | |||
| Utilities | 64.7 | |||
| Power | 44.9 | |||
| Oil and gas | 65.9 | |||
| Other | 78.3 | |||
| Canada | 99.5 | |||
| Asia-Pacific | 65.4 | |||
| U.S. and tax havens | 63.2 | |||
| EMEA | 66.3 | |||
| Latin America | 62.5 | |||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||
However, the relationship varies across infrastructure subsectors. To compare, we use a three-year horizon for the Gini coefficient because it is the longest period in which a sizable number of issues remain outstanding (either prior to redemption or any other reason for rating withdrawals).
Social infrastructure has the highest three-year Gini coefficient at nearly 100%--extremely high. The transportation subsector has a high coefficient of 84% and the other subsector has one of 78%. The utilities and oil and gas subsectors have moderately high coefficients at 65% and 66%, respectively. Meanwhile, the power subsector has a low coefficient of 45%--indicating a high frequency of defaults among higher-rated issues, largely explained by the extreme downgrade activity during the 2001-2003 U.S. power crisis.
While the differences are not as extreme, the coefficients also vary across regions. Canada has an extremely high coefficient at nearly 100%. Meanwhile, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, the U.S. and tax havens, and Latin America each have moderately high coefficients at 66%, 65%, 63%, and 62%, respectively.
Points along the Lorenz curve represent different ratings, starting with issues in the 'CCC'/'C' category on the far left of the x-axis (see chart 13). The first point indicates about 33% of transitions to default were from issues rated 'CCC'/'C'.
At higher ratings, the number of defaults generally decreases, yielding points that continue to climb as one moves right along the x-axis through the remainder of the rating scale. The Lorenz curve generally turns sharply to the right at the investment-grade ratings because of the low proportion of defaults from investment-grade issues. Table 13 shows the coordinates of the Lorenz curve in chart 13.
Chart 13
Table 13
| Infrastructure three-year Lorenz curve values | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y-axis: cumulative proportion of defaults | X-axis: cumulative proportion of ratings | |||||
| AAA | 100.00 | 100.00 | ||||
| AA+ | 100.00 | 98.36 | ||||
| AA | 100.00 | 97.29 | ||||
| AA- | 100.00 | 94.19 | ||||
| A+ | 100.00 | 89.60 | ||||
| A | 99.24 | 84.62 | ||||
| A- | 96.46 | 74.90 | ||||
| BBB+ | 93.94 | 61.77 | ||||
| BBB | 87.63 | 49.36 | ||||
| BBB- | 81.31 | 33.44 | ||||
| BB+ | 71.72 | 19.72 | ||||
| BB | 70.20 | 15.27 | ||||
| BB- | 64.90 | 11.28 | ||||
| B+ | 57.83 | 7.77 | ||||
| B | 50.51 | 5.09 | ||||
| B- | 42.42 | 3.05 | ||||
| CCC/C | 32.83 | 1.61 | ||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||
Recovery Rates
Ultimate recovery rates for defaulted infrastructure debt instruments, which include bank debt and bonds in both corporate infrastructure and project finance, average 76.5%--much higher than the 60.1% average for nonfinancial corporates (see chart 14).
Chart 14
Many of the infrastructure corporates and projects that achieved the highest recoveries exhibited both high asset quality and low industry risk. Recoveries for infrastructure corporates help lift average recoveries for infrastructure overall. Furthermore, regulated utilities, a subset of corporate infrastructure, specifically show a tendency toward above-average recovery rates (particularly senior unsecured bonds).
Within infrastructure, corporate infrastructure (excluding project finance) displays an average recovery of 80.2% (from 339 instruments), and more than half of the defaulted instruments recovered par or greater. This average recovery for corporate infrastructure is notably higher than the average recoveries from project finance (55.9% from 60 instruments) and from nonfinancial corporates (60.1% from over 4,600 instruments).
Average recoveries from project finance instruments are considerably lower than for corporate infrastructure and are closer to the average recoveries of nonfinancial corporates. However, the average recovery from project finance is based on a much smaller sample of 60 instruments, and the distribution of these recoveries is more varied, with a nearly equal number of recoveries at the high end as at the low end. The projects with the lowest recoveries typically exhibited high market risk or encountered technology issues.
Our dataset of recoveries for infrastructure corporate and project finance includes defaulted instruments that were resolved through a debt restructuring, a distressed exchange, or a liquidation and sale of assets. To calculate recovery rates on defaulted projects, we relied on public documents, court filings, and company reports. Because we used public information, we were unable to calculate recovery rates on all defaulted projects. Most of the recovery rates we were able to calculate were from legal jurisdictions, such as the U.S., that published an abundance of post-default data. These recoveries are calculated on a nominal basis and have not been discounted for the time between default and emergence.
In addition to calculating recovery rates as an average of instrument recoveries, weighted by the number of instruments, we also looked at recoveries on a dollar-weighted basis. For the dollar-weighted averages, we calculated the nominal sum of debt recovered from the pool of defaulted instruments, divided by the total of defaulted debt in the sample for that instrument type.
Dollar-weighted recoveries for infrastructure tend to be lower, on average, than the instrument-weighted averages. However, the 67.4% dollar-weighted average recovery for the infrastructure sector overall remains higher than the 56.9% dollar-weighted average for nonfinancial corporates.
This infrastructure dataset includes 76 defaulted obligors, affecting nearly 400 debt instruments. While the dataset includes obligors from the emerging and developed markets, almost 92% of the instruments included in the recovery dataset are from U.S.-based obligors. These include entities that defaulted from 1988 to 2022 and emerged from default before Dec. 31, 2022. The count of instruments includes senior debt, senior unsecured debt, and subordinated debt. Many obligors have defaulted on a variety of instruments, and some have defaulted more than once, causing the number of observed instrument defaults to far exceed the number of defaulters.
Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study periodically includes the addition of defaulted instruments from prior years, where sufficient information on the ultimate recovery value has subsequently become available.
Recovery By Instrument Type
By debt type, senior secured and subordinated infrastructure debt shows average recovery rates that are very close to the average recoveries of nonfinancial corporates.
In contrast, senior unsecured debt from infrastructure has a markedly higher average recovery (80.0%) than that of nonfinancial corporates (51.7%) (see chart 15). This reflects, in part, the high concentration of regulated utilities among infrastructure corporates, combined with the high recovery values, bearing in mind the benefit of having a regulatory asset base and often, the absence of material senior debt in the structure. While the utilities sector accounts for more than half of the instruments in the pool of infrastructure recoveries, it accounts for closer to 5% of the pool of nonfinancial corporates.
Senior secured debt (which includes bank debt along with senior secured bonds) from the infrastructure sector shows an average recovery of 77.1%, which is near the 78.6% average recovery for nonfinancial corporates. Meanwhile, subordinated debt from the infrastructure sector averages 23.1%, which is below the 32% average recovery of subordinated debt from the nonfinancial sectors.
Chart 15
In our dataset, average recoveries of senior unsecured infrastructure debt are also higher than those of senior secured. This is surprising but largely reflects a concentration of debt from regulated utilities that is included among the defaulted senior unsecured bonds. In many of these cases, the senior unsecured bond was the most senior instrument in the debt stack, which supported an above-average recovery for those instruments.
In addition, the recovery for senior secured infrastructure debt is more influenced by project finance recoveries. Since most project finance debt is secured, it accounts for very few of the senior unsecured or subordinated recoveries.
The regulated and unregulated utilities subsector has the highest average recovery rate (83.2%), lifted in part by the portion of those that benefited from regulatory support and the ability to pass through costs to consumers. However, dollar-weighted recovery for the utilities sector is notably lower (69.9%), since this recovery is weighed down by a few defaults of unregulated utility entities, including Enron Inc. in 2001 (see chart 16).
Chart 16
Recovery By Default Type
Recovery rates can also vary with the type of default that the infrastructure entity undergoes. In nonbankruptcy restructurings, which include distressed exchanges and defaults that are cured within or outside of the grace period, the recovery rates for unsecured and subordinated debt tend to be higher, on average, than they would be through a bankruptcy restructuring. Unsecured creditors tend to experience higher average recoveries if they can avoid an expensive bankruptcy restructuring process that pits creditor against creditor.
The average recovery across all instruments is higher, at 80.8%, following a nonbankruptcy restructuring than the 75.7% average following a bankruptcy (see table 14). By debt type, the difference stems from senior unsecured and subordinated debt that tend to realize higher average recoveries through nonbankruptcy restructurings, which is consistent with what we find in nonfinancial corporate recoveries.
Table 14
| Average recovery rate for bankruptcy versus non bankruptcy restructurings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average recovery (nominal, %) | Instrument count | |||||||||
| Bankruptcy | Nonbankruptcy | Bankruptcy | Nonbankruptcy | |||||||
| Senior secured debt | 77.4 | 73.2 | 148 | 15 | ||||||
| Senior unsecured and subordinated | 74.3 | 83 | 186 | 50 | ||||||
| Total | 75.7 | 80.8 | 334 | 65 | ||||||
| Nominal recovery for defaulted debt instruments from infrastructure corporate and project finance entities. Senior secured debt includes all bank debt and senior secured bonds. Nonbankruptcy restructurings include distressed exchanges, defaults cured within, or without, the grace period, and other nonbankruptcy restructurings. Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro® and S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
Close to half of defaulted infrastructure debt instruments have ultimately recovered par or greater. Granted, these nominal recoveries don't factor in the time value of money. Of recovered infrastructure debt instruments, 49.9% recovered at par or greater, markedly higher than the 28.5% of nonfinancial corporates that recovered at that level (see chart 17).
Chart 17
At the low end of the distribution, just 9.0% of defaulted infrastructure debt instruments recovered 10% or less, compared with about 17.9% of nonfinancial corporate debt instruments. However, the sample size of infrastructure recoveries remains considerably smaller than that of nonfinancial corporates.
The distribution of project finance recoveries tends to vary more widely than that of corporate infrastructure. While 23% of project finance instruments recovered par or greater, 20% experienced recoveries of just 10% or less (see chart 18).
Chart 18
Among other projects with higher recoveries, many tend to benefit from characteristics similar to those of regulated utilities. For instance, infrastructure project financings hold essential assets, have stable cash flows, and exhibit low industry risk. In many cases, low industry risk may be supported by long-term offtake contracts, such as power purchase agreements or availability-based payments under a concession, operations and maintenance contracts, or fuel-supply contracts.
The distribution of recoveries within corporate infrastructure tends to be more highly concentrated at the high end of the recovery range. Most defaulted debt instruments (about 54.6%) from corporate infrastructure experienced recoveries of par or greater, while just 7.1% of instruments recovered 10% or less (see chart 19).
Chart 19
Appendix I: Definitions And Methodology
Infrastructure investment is broadly defined as investment exposure (debt or equity) to real assets vital to a country's economic development and prosperity that provide essential services for the orderly operations of an economy, such as transportation networks, health and education facilities, communication networks, and water and energy distribution systems. Key risks are in design, permitting, construction, operations, volume, and maintenance, with debt repaid predominantly by cash generated from the assets themselves.
Characteristics of infrastructure entities vary, and the variety of risks managed by infrastructure investments is broad (such as greenfield/brownfield, contracted/regulated/merchant, and availability/demand risk). Characteristics sought by investors in infrastructure include longevity, strong competitive advantages, high barriers to entry and monopolistic characteristics, low volatility, differentiation between return and volatility, and inflation-linked or predictable cash flows.
Our fourth annual infrastructure default and rating transition study continues the analysis of the inaugural study, and also expands on and supersedes project finance studies we've published in previous years. The data encompasses project finance ratings from past reports and adds ratings from other segments within infrastructure. The advantage of this report over its predecessors is its broader perspective and larger dataset, which allow for more conclusions and increases the robustness of the findings while enabling comparisons between infrastructure issuer types and subsectors.
Our long-term infrastructure default and rating transition study uses long-term ratings on individual project finance debt issues. For projects with multiple tranches of debt, we used a single rating for all pari passu tranches to mitigate the risk of overweighting such projects in the sample set. For projects with senior and subordinated debt with different ratings, we counted each class separately and collapsed multiple tranches of pari passu debt into a single rating.
An infrastructure rating reflects S&P Global Ratings' opinion of the obligor's ability and willingness to meet its financial commitments on time, and it generally indicates our opinion of the likelihood of default regarding the specific rated issuance. Unlike issuer credit ratings, project finance ratings consider the value of collateral and recovery in determining the rating.
We analyzed the rating histories of corporate infrastructure and project finance credits that S&P Global Ratings first rated between Dec. 31, 1980, and Dec. 31, 2022. We categorized these ratings into five subsectors: utilities, power, oil and gas, social infrastructure, and transportation. Other obligors are grouped in a separate category.
The analysis excludes ratings based on the guarantee of another entity and obligations wrapped by a monoline insurer, unless the obligations bear an S&P Underlying Rating (SPUR), in which case we included the SPUR. Corporate issuers, structured finance vehicles, public-sector issuers, and sovereign issuers are the subjects of separate default and transition studies, so we have excluded them from this study. The infrastructure data makes up a sufficiently large set, although individual subsectors are small, so that a few defaults or rating transitions can have a sizable effect on portfolio performance within those groups.
Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study could lead to outcomes that differ to some degree from those reported in previous studies. However, this poses no continuity problem because each study reports statistics back to Dec. 31, 1980. Therefore, each annual default study is self-contained and effectively supersedes all previous versions.
Withdrawn ratings
When a rating is withdrawn, it is changed to not rated (NR). Issue ratings are withdrawn when an obligation is repaid or at the request of the issuer. S&P Global Ratings also withdraws ratings when sufficient information to maintain a rating is unavailable. If we withdrew a rating after the issue defaulted, we counted it as a default.
Definition of default
A default is assumed to take place on the date S&P Global Ratings revised the rating to 'D', which could occur when a payment on the issue is missed, a distressed exchange offer is completed, or the issuer filed for or was forced into bankruptcy. When an issue defaults, it is not uncommon for S&P Global Ratings to subsequently withdraw the 'D' rating.
For the purposes of this study, if an issue defaults, we end its rating history at 'D'. For those instances when an issue defaulted and was subsequently upgraded, we entered the rating history after the default into the calculations as a new rating.
Many practitioners use statistics from this default study to estimate "probability of default" and "probability of rating transition." It is important to note that S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings do not imply a specific probability of default.
Static pool methodology
We conduct our default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issues by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. All issues included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. When an issue defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issue belonged.
We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates. This is to ensure that default rates account for rating migration and to allow for default rates to be calculated across multiperiod time horizons.
The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of issues in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Jan. 1, 1981, to avoid continuity problems.
Because static pools only include issues with active ratings as of the beginning date of a given pool, we exclude those with withdrawn ratings, as well as those that have defaulted, from subsequent static pools. If the rating on an issue is withdrawn after the start date of a particular static pool and the issue subsequently defaults, we will include it in that static pool as a default and categorize it in the rating category of which it was a member at that time.
For instance, the 1983 static pool consists of all issues rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1983. Adding those issues first rated in 1983 to the surviving members of the 1983 static pool forms the 1984 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1984 static pool through the ratings on these issues as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1984. We used the same method to form static pools for 1985-2022.
Consider the following example: An issue is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1996 and is downgraded to 'B' in 1998. This is followed by a rating withdrawal in 2000 and a default in 2003. We would include this hypothetical issue in the 1997 and 1998 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1999 and 2000 pools with the 'B' rating. It would not be part of the 1996 pool because it was not rated as of the first day of that year, and it would not be included in any pool after the last day of 2000 because the rating had been withdrawn by then. Yet each of the four pools in which this company was included (1997-2000) would record its 2003 default at the appropriate time horizon.
Transition matrices
Transition rates compare issue ratings at the beginning of a period with the ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. An issue that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated.
For instance, an issue continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If the rating on the issue was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.
All 1982 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2023, had 41 one-year transitions, while companies first rated on Dec. 31, 2021, had only one. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to not rated.
The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if an issue was rated 'A' on Jan. 1, 2014, and was downgraded to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this instrument would be included only in the percentage of issues that began the year as 'A' and that ended the year as 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issue defaults or if the rating is withdrawn in the middle of the year, then it would be considered rated 'D', or not rated, as of Dec. 31 of that particular year.
Multiyear transitions
Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two up to five years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2020 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2022.
Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions. We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices just described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issue-weighted averages.
Rating modifiers
We use rating modifiers (plus and minus signs) to calculate upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, throughout this study. However, some transition tables may use full rating categories for practical reasons: The use of a rating category suggests that transitions to 'AA-' from 'AA', for example, or to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+' are not considered to be rating transitions because the rating remained within the rating category.
Issue-weighted statistics
Averages that appear in this study are calculated based on the number of issues, rather than the dollar amounts, affected by defaults or rating changes. Although dollar amounts provide information about the portion of the market affected by defaults or rating changes, we believe issue-weighted averages are more useful measures of the performance of ratings.
Average cumulative default rate calculation
The cumulative default rates in this study average the experience of all static pools by first calculating marginal default rates for each possible time horizon and for each static pool, weight-averaging the marginal default rates conditional on survival (survivors being nondefaulters), and accumulating the average conditional marginal default rates.
We calculated conditional default rates by dividing the number of issues in a static pool that default at a specific time horizon by the number of issues that survived (did not default) to that point in time. Weights are based on the number of issues in each static pool. Cumulative default rates are one minus the product of the proportion of survivors (nondefaulters).
Appendix II: Additional Exhibits
Chart 20
| Utilities rating distribution | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | ||||||||||
| 1/1/1981 | 12 | 57 | 134 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1982 | 14 | 47 | 128 | 68 | 10 | 6 | 1 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1983 | 14 | 49 | 117 | 68 | 14 | 6 | 1 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1984 | 14 | 54 | 105 | 69 | 19 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1985 | 4 | 61 | 110 | 62 | 21 | 4 | 3 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1986 | 4 | 50 | 115 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 3 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1987 | 4 | 49 | 106 | 90 | 13 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1988 | 3 | 46 | 99 | 95 | 21 | 9 | 4 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1989 | 4 | 42 | 99 | 97 | 21 | 5 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1990 | 6 | 37 | 90 | 93 | 30 | 5 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1991 | 9 | 42 | 80 | 102 | 22 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1992 | 9 | 47 | 81 | 107 | 18 | 6 | 4 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1993 | 9 | 54 | 90 | 111 | 18 | 6 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1994 | 8 | 61 | 96 | 112 | 13 | 19 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1995 | 8 | 61 | 95 | 117 | 14 | 17 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1996 | 8 | 65 | 113 | 125 | 20 | 17 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1997 | 7 | 60 | 114 | 124 | 25 | 14 | 0 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1998 | 7 | 64 | 149 | 125 | 39 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||
| 1/1/1999 | 8 | 62 | 161 | 155 | 41 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2000 | 8 | 59 | 178 | 179 | 33 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2001 | 10 | 44 | 187 | 218 | 40 | 6 | 2 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2002 | 12 | 38 | 182 | 252 | 38 | 3 | 20 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2003 | 7 | 29 | 184 | 214 | 47 | 25 | 9 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2004 | 5 | 44 | 182 | 235 | 47 | 28 | 16 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2005 | 3 | 43 | 201 | 231 | 41 | 28 | 11 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2006 | 2 | 42 | 206 | 243 | 39 | 30 | 4 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2007 | 2 | 45 | 201 | 236 | 53 | 26 | 3 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2008 | 1 | 48 | 191 | 231 | 46 | 26 | 10 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2009 | 1 | 47 | 197 | 247 | 48 | 18 | 9 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2010 | 1 | 40 | 210 | 248 | 48 | 22 | 10 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2011 | 1 | 42 | 211 | 270 | 49 | 20 | 10 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2012 | 1 | 33 | 208 | 281 | 55 | 15 | 12 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2013 | 1 | 26 | 213 | 312 | 59 | 10 | 13 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2014 | 1 | 28 | 212 | 325 | 53 | 10 | 12 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2015 | 2 | 29 | 215 | 326 | 52 | 6 | 8 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2016 | 2 | 34 | 220 | 310 | 56 | 6 | 8 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2017 | 1 | 34 | 221 | 310 | 55 | 9 | 7 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2018 | 1 | 31 | 241 | 291 | 54 | 14 | 2 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2019 | 1 | 30 | 234 | 291 | 41 | 16 | 7 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2020 | 1 | 26 | 221 | 288 | 44 | 19 | 4 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2021 | 1 | 21 | 197 | 277 | 53 | 15 | 7 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2022 | 1 | 18 | 178 | 309 | 46 | 17 | 6 | |||||||||
| 1/1/2023 | 1 | 13 | 182 | 281 | 46 | 12 | 5 | |||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||
Chart 21
Chart 22
Chart 23
Chart 24
Chart 25
Table 15
| Infrastructure rating distribution, Jan. 1, 2023 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of ratings | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | Oil and gas | Transportation | Power | Social infrastructure | Other | |||||||||
| AAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | ||||||||
| AA | 13 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 17 | ||||||||
| A | 182 | 7 | 43 | 7 | 30 | 81 | ||||||||
| BBB | 281 | 94 | 75 | 75 | 43 | 20 | ||||||||
| BB | 46 | 53 | 29 | 59 | 17 | 6 | ||||||||
| B | 12 | 32 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 8 | ||||||||
| CCC/C | 5 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||
| Total | 540 | 194 | 168 | 168 | 95 | 135 | ||||||||
| Speculative-grade | 63 | 92 | 41 | 84 | 22 | 14 | ||||||||
| Percent of ratings | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | Oil and gas | Transportation | Power | Social infrastructure | Other | |||||||||
| AAA | 0% | 0% | 1% | N/A | N/A | 2% | ||||||||
| AA | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 13% | ||||||||
| A | 34% | 4% | 26% | 4% | 32% | 60% | ||||||||
| BBB | 52% | 48% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 15% | ||||||||
| BB | 9% | 27% | 17% | 35% | 18% | 4% | ||||||||
| B | 2% | 16% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 6% | ||||||||
| CCC/C | 1% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 0% | ||||||||
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||||||
| Speculative-grade | 12% | 47% | 24% | 50% | 23% | 10.4% | ||||||||
| N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights | ||||||||||||||
Table 16
| Average transition rates for all infrastructure (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 83.85 | 7.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.95 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.36 | 83.55 | 8.19 | 0.53 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.16 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 1.02 | 85.43 | 5.59 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 7.61 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2.48 | 85.49 | 2.67 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 8.74 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 6.55 | 72.78 | 6.94 | 0.96 | 0.26 | 12.38 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.90 | 8.92 | 67.22 | 7.07 | 1.66 | 14.04 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 2.30 | 10.44 | 54.69 | 13.81 | 17.70 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 55.93 | 14.82 | 1.78 | 1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.89 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.78 | 59.42 | 16.54 | 1.99 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.83 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 2.17 | 63.01 | 11.79 | 0.59 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 21.76 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.01 | 0.04 | 5.84 | 63.03 | 4.41 | 1.14 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 24.24 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 12.49 | 40.55 | 8.86 | 2.19 | 1.49 | 34.18 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 3.52 | 14.67 | 30.76 | 8.25 | 5.21 | 37.17 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 3.61 | 10.84 | 16.06 | 26.10 | 41.77 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 34.69 | 17.04 | 1.83 | 4.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 41.58 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.93 | 41.77 | 19.38 | 3.08 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.22 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 2.49 | 47.18 | 13.62 | 0.75 | 0.32 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 34.87 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.03 | 0.05 | 7.27 | 46.90 | 4.43 | 1.45 | 0.74 | 1.17 | 37.96 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 13.60 | 23.79 | 5.97 | 1.85 | 3.02 | 51.22 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 4.90 | 12.49 | 13.27 | 4.36 | 7.35 | 57.20 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.98 | 1.54 | 7.71 | 5.29 | 30.40 | 53.08 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 17
| Average transition rates for corporate infrastructure excluding utilities (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 86.41 | 6.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.32 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.88 | 86.88 | 6.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.17 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 1.14 | 86.77 | 5.15 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 6.53 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 | 86.18 | 3.20 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 8.94 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.82 | 73.39 | 5.61 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 14.48 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.71 | 7.72 | 70.15 | 6.40 | 1.02 | 13.81 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.66 | 11.70 | 58.51 | 10.64 | 16.49 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 63.35 | 16.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.64 | |||||||||||
| AA | 2.12 | 65.45 | 14.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.92 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.07 | 2.92 | 63.89 | 13.26 | 0.76 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 18.40 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.06 | 64.95 | 5.77 | 1.68 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 24.24 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.16 | 41.76 | 6.81 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 37.98 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 2.42 | 13.13 | 34.10 | 8.99 | 3.92 | 37.10 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1.96 | 13.73 | 16.34 | 19.61 | 47.71 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 42.59 | 22.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.44 | |||||||||||
| AA | 2.73 | 49.93 | 18.08 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.09 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.08 | 3.84 | 46.00 | 16.64 | 1.44 | 0.40 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 30.96 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.45 | 51.00 | 5.81 | 2.65 | 0.80 | 1.44 | 35.85 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 12.23 | 23.86 | 4.15 | 1.01 | 2.22 | 56.42 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 3.40 | 12.36 | 14.40 | 4.48 | 5.03 | 59.78 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 7.75 | 7.04 | 20.42 | 61.97 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 18
| Average transition rates for utilities (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 82.11 | 8.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.17 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.11 | 82.00 | 9.35 | 0.76 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.45 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 1.12 | 84.52 | 5.80 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 8.21 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.51 | 84.36 | 2.05 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 9.55 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 10.39 | 69.91 | 5.74 | 1.21 | 0.07 | 12.35 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 2.14 | 12.84 | 60.51 | 6.81 | 2.33 | 14.98 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 12.62 | 52.80 | 18.69 | 14.02 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 48.61 | 13.89 | 4.17 | 3.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29.63 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.17 | 56.78 | 18.06 | 2.83 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21.50 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 2.27 | 61.31 | 12.01 | 0.55 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 23.21 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.26 | 60.66 | 3.12 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.72 | 26.20 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 18.08 | 36.66 | 6.44 | 1.88 | 1.16 | 35.21 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 8.92 | 17.63 | 22.20 | 6.85 | 7.26 | 36.51 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.49 | 2.49 | 9.45 | 15.92 | 32.84 | 36.82 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 26.17 | 10.28 | 4.21 | 11.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 48.13 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.17 | 38.30 | 20.58 | 3.84 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 36.18 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.08 | 2.47 | 45.42 | 13.60 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.57 | 36.86 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.06 | 43.79 | 2.79 | 0.65 | 0.54 | 1.13 | 41.05 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 18.57 | 19.41 | 4.78 | 0.92 | 2.39 | 52.77 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 12.08 | 12.98 | 5.15 | 4.03 | 10.74 | 54.36 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.68 | 0.53 | 7.37 | 5.26 | 37.37 | 45.79 | |||||||||||
| NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 19
| Average transition rates for project finance (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 44.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.56 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 80.65 | 4.84 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.90 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 89.93 | 4.81 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.03 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.31 | 87.77 | 3.75 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 6.33 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 75.55 | 9.94 | 1.47 | 0.33 | 9.94 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 7.55 | 68.14 | 8.37 | 2.13 | 13.63 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.29 | 6.13 | 52.76 | 11.04 | 23.93 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 53.33 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 41.67 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 75.69 | 7.23 | 0.66 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 15.90 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.04 | 0.19 | 3.29 | 67.48 | 6.50 | 1.98 | 1.23 | 0.49 | 18.82 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.88 | 44.13 | 14.22 | 3.76 | 2.29 | 28.62 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 14.49 | 32.97 | 8.33 | 5.43 | 37.86 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.94 | 9.72 | 15.97 | 23.61 | 42.36 | |||||||||||
| From / to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 37.50 | 0.00 | 5.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 57.14 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.16 | 0.00 | 65.88 | 7.86 | 0.63 | 0.79 | 0.16 | 0.47 | 24.06 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.13 | 0.25 | 4.31 | 51.52 | 7.73 | 2.49 | 1.27 | 1.01 | 31.29 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.32 | 29.63 | 9.46 | 3.95 | 4.68 | 43.76 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 12.24 | 18.98 | 4.49 | 7.76 | 55.92 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.28 | 8.20 | 3.28 | 31.15 | 54.10 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 20
| Average transition rates for oil and gas (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 80.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 81.40 | 13.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.65 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.14 | 0.14 | 85.06 | 7.05 | 0.55 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 6.78 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 87.66 | 2.96 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.33 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.76 | 71.28 | 5.97 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 14.57 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1.01 | 8.38 | 70.23 | 6.07 | 0.72 | 13.29 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 12.39 | 59.29 | 6.19 | 18.58 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 40.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 53.66 | 26.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.51 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.14 | 0.00 | 61.65 | 16.34 | 1.56 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 19.60 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.72 | 70.09 | 5.41 | 1.41 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 21.07 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.87 | 37.41 | 6.35 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 39.57 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.49 | 14.31 | 35.27 | 8.82 | 2.66 | 34.94 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.14 | 3.41 | 11.36 | 19.32 | 10.23 | 54.55 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 25.64 | 25.64 | 7.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 41.03 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.15 | 0.00 | 45.41 | 20.56 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 31.07 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.21 | 57.83 | 5.53 | 2.39 | 0.58 | 0.23 | 31.22 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 15.54 | 21.47 | 1.84 | 0.71 | 0.99 | 59.32 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.57 | 12.92 | 16.10 | 4.17 | 3.18 | 58.25 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 1.35 | 9.46 | 9.46 | 10.81 | 66.22 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 21
| Average transition rates for power (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | |||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 88.89 | 11.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 78.57 | 16.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.36 | ||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.77 | 88.19 | 4.17 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.23 | 5.56 | ||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.41 | 76.06 | 9.35 | 1.02 | 0.77 | 11.40 | ||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.57 | 70.97 | 7.20 | 1.27 | 13.98 | ||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.85 | 8.74 | 54.37 | 12.62 | 19.42 | ||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 50.00 | 50.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 58.24 | 32.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.79 | ||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 1.04 | 68.95 | 6.42 | 3.12 | 1.04 | 1.82 | 17.61 | ||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.42 | 46.97 | 14.15 | 3.42 | 1.71 | 30.33 | ||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.33 | 32.18 | 9.20 | 4.37 | 40.92 | ||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.60 | 14.94 | 13.79 | 27.59 | 39.08 | ||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 25.00 | 75.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 43.84 | 38.36 | 1.37 | 2.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.70 | ||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.80 | 54.27 | 7.55 | 3.98 | 1.49 | 3.48 | 28.43 | ||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 29.53 | 12.01 | 3.74 | 3.74 | 47.44 | ||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 12.87 | 14.48 | 5.36 | 6.70 | 60.05 | ||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.37 | 8.22 | 4.11 | 32.88 | 53.42 | ||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||
Table 22
| Average transition rates for transportation (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 82.42 | 7.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.89 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.48 | 84.44 | 5.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.15 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.63 | 86.85 | 4.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.92 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.95 | 86.75 | 2.89 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 7.56 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.59 | 79.02 | 6.56 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 9.51 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.77 | 70.68 | 9.77 | 1.50 | 8.27 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.04 | 58.70 | 10.87 | 17.39 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 56.04 | 19.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.18 | |||||||||||
| AA | 3.94 | 58.66 | 12.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.41 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 1.50 | 66.23 | 11.63 | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.70 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.20 | 63.00 | 6.58 | 0.69 | 1.18 | 0.39 | 22.96 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.46 | 46.86 | 13.81 | 2.51 | 1.26 | 25.10 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 13.89 | 42.59 | 12.04 | 4.63 | 25.93 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.00 | 13.89 | 22.22 | 38.89 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 30.34 | 29.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40.45 | |||||||||||
| AA | 5.43 | 41.18 | 15.38 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 37.56 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 2.04 | 51.70 | 13.15 | 0.91 | 0.23 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 31.29 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.60 | 45.74 | 7.32 | 2.40 | 0.60 | 0.96 | 36.37 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.87 | 28.04 | 14.81 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 35.98 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.49 | 12.79 | 26.74 | 5.81 | 4.65 | 46.51 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.38 | 9.38 | 25.00 | 56.25 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 23
| Average transition rates for social infrastructure (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 66.67 | 0.00 | 16.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.67 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 92.86 | 3.44 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.44 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1.90 | 90.09 | 3.39 | 0.41 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 3.80 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.59 | 85.63 | 4.79 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 4.79 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.76 | 9.52 | 52.38 | 14.29 | 0.00 | 19.05 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.11 | 0.00 | 44.44 | 11.11 | 33.33 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 16.67 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 81.39 | 5.05 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.93 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.78 | 5.12 | 74.07 | 8.23 | 1.09 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 10.40 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.93 | 65.96 | 5.67 | 2.84 | 0.00 | 15.60 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.18 | 27.27 | 0.00 | 27.27 | 0.00 | 27.27 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 0.00 | 16.67 | 50.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 73.02 | 7.14 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.05 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 1.10 | 7.92 | 62.43 | 11.42 | 1.10 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 15.47 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.16 | 56.14 | 4.39 | 4.39 | 0.00 | 21.93 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 37.50 | 0.00 | 25.00 | 12.50 | 25.00 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 66.67 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 24
| Average one-year transition rates for other finance ratings (1981-2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| From / to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 86.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.62 | 87.83 | 5.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.08 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 2.00 | 90.43 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 80.58 | 4.56 | 0.60 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 12.95 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 70.84 | 9.72 | 1.94 | 0.43 | 14.25 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.52 | 65.22 | 7.97 | 3.62 | 16.67 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 3.75 | 52.50 | 15.00 | 22.50 | |||||||||||
| From / to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 64.43 | 13.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21.65 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.33 | 68.55 | 12.65 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.30 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 6.12 | 71.58 | 4.14 | 0.18 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 16.91 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.13 | 0.00 | 2.01 | 50.00 | 5.15 | 3.02 | 2.51 | 0.88 | 36.31 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.75 | 37.83 | 11.73 | 3.32 | 3.98 | 37.17 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.08 | 30.19 | 5.66 | 9.06 | 42.26 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 3.75 | 16.25 | 25.00 | 47.50 | |||||||||||
| From / to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 47.57 | 19.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 32.97 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.62 | 54.40 | 16.52 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26.39 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.23 | 8.78 | 54.73 | 3.38 | 0.68 | 1.13 | 0.23 | 0.68 | 30.18 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.39 | 0.00 | 2.49 | 30.54 | 4.46 | 2.36 | 2.23 | 1.70 | 55.83 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.48 | 23.61 | 5.79 | 3.24 | 8.33 | 52.08 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.38 | 16.02 | 2.73 | 11.33 | 60.55 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.53 | 6.33 | 1.27 | 29.11 | 60.76 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 25
| Infrastructure rating actions per year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities | Power | Oil and gas | Transportation | Social | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | Downgrades | Defaults | Upgrades | Downgrades | Defaults | Upgrades | Downgrades | Defaults | Upgrades | Downgrades | Defaults | Upgrades | Downgrades | Defaults | Upgrades | Downgrades | Defaults | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1981 | 6 | -40 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1982 | 20 | -28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1983 | 20 | -29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | -2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1984 | 78 | -28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1985 | 36 | -26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | -2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1986 | 32 | -37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1987 | 16 | -48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1988 | 18 | -21 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1989 | 29 | -45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 | -2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1990 | 32 | -29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1991 | 24 | -27 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1992 | 28 | -22 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1993 | 7 | -37 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | -2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1994 | 5 | -41 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1995 | 33 | -18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | -2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1996 | 28 | -17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | -1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1997 | 65 | -28 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 | -4 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1998 | 15 | -32 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | -10 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1999 | 53 | -60 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 | -9 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2000 | 22 | -75 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -6 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2001 | 47 | -105 | -9 | 3 | -11 | 0 | 10 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2002 | 25 | -148 | -13 | 0 | -19 | -4 | 7 | -20 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -26 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2003 | 10 | -129 | -4 | 5 | -11 | -9 | 4 | -15 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -29 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2004 | 49 | -41 | -1 | 7 | -7 | 0 | 4 | -21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -11 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2005 | 61 | -45 | -5 | 6 | -10 | -2 | 11 | -21 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | -18 | -3 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2006 | 39 | -34 | 0 | 16 | -4 | 0 | 29 | -7 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21 | -9 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2007 | 91 | -57 | 0 | 13 | -5 | 0 | 23 | -13 | 0 | 4 | -8 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24 | -7 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2008 | 76 | -38 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 0 | 10 | -8 | 0 | 7 | -9 | -2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 12 | -18 | -2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2009 | 39 | -62 | -4 | 4 | -18 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 | 0 | -16 | -1 | 4 | -11 | 0 | 11 | -22 | -2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2010 | 36 | -67 | -3 | 10 | -21 | 0 | 13 | -9 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 | 8 | -24 | -2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2011 | 45 | -64 | -6 | 7 | -11 | 0 | 15 | -11 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 0 | 1 | -16 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2012 | 28 | -67 | -2 | 2 | -16 | 0 | 28 | -22 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | -6 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2013 | 71 | -42 | -2 | 6 | -17 | -3 | 22 | -22 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 0 | 2 | -6 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2014 | 32 | -26 | -6 | 22 | -16 | 0 | 37 | -22 | 0 | 23 | -17 | 0 | 11 | -7 | 0 | 2 | -5 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2015 | 71 | -50 | 0 | 5 | -20 | 0 | 17 | -32 | -1 | 13 | -16 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2016 | 83 | -44 | 0 | 9 | -37 | -2 | 21 | -45 | -2 | 12 | -18 | -1 | 4 | -4 | -1 | 6 | -24 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2017 | 67 | -46 | -1 | 14 | -20 | -3 | 33 | -29 | -1 | 13 | -16 | 0 | 8 | -3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2018 | 49 | -30 | -1 | 15 | -20 | -1 | 40 | -19 | -1 | 15 | -9 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 | 9 | -22 | -2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2019 | 34 | -32 | -2 | 18 | -30 | 0 | 21 | -17 | -1 | 11 | -11 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -14 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2020 | 9 | -56 | -1 | 18 | -28 | -2 | 3 | -51 | -5 | 3 | -67 | -1 | 2 | -15 | 0 | 1 | -20 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2021 | 33 | -59 | 0 | 6 | -28 | 0 | 11 | -24 | -1 | 12 | -12 | 0 | 0 | -13 | 0 | 4 | -14 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2022 | 11 | -24 | 0 | 7 | -23 | -2 | 29 | -11 | -1 | 13 | -5 | 0 | 2 | -12 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 26
| All infrastructure cumulative default rates with modifier, 1981-2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | |||||||||||||||||
| A+ | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 0.96 | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 | |||||||||||||||||
| A- | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB+ | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.62 | 0.84 | 1.02 | 1.12 | 1.26 | 1.37 | 1.48 | 1.65 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 2.07 | 2.18 | 2.24 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.68 | 0.84 | 1.03 | 1.21 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 2.13 | 2.32 | 2.53 | 2.76 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB- | 0.13 | 0.54 | 0.87 | 1.16 | 1.45 | 1.72 | 2.01 | 2.28 | 2.45 | 2.55 | 2.67 | 2.75 | 2.93 | 3.03 | 3.14 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB+ | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 1.67 | 2.57 | 3.09 | 3.27 | 3.47 | 3.69 | 3.93 | 4.19 | 4.48 | 4.63 | 4.81 | 4.99 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.66 | 0.96 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 2.59 | 2.89 | 3.11 | 3.47 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.73 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB- | 0.16 | 1.10 | 2.67 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 4.27 | 4.65 | 5.05 | 5.35 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | |||||||||||||||||
| B+ | 0.77 | 2.48 | 3.44 | 4.35 | 4.77 | 5.23 | 6.05 | 6.42 | 6.83 | 6.83 | 6.83 | 6.83 | 6.83 | 6.83 | 6.83 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.44 | 2.97 | 4.88 | 6.06 | 7.13 | 7.89 | 8.30 | 8.72 | 9.43 | 9.68 | 9.68 | 9.68 | 9.68 | 9.68 | 9.68 | |||||||||||||||||
| B- | 3.57 | 6.52 | 7.88 | 9.81 | 11.07 | 12.42 | 12.72 | 13.35 | 14.01 | 15.09 | 15.48 | 15.89 | 15.89 | 15.89 | 15.89 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 13.81 | 21.16 | 25.03 | 27.61 | 28.51 | 29.23 | 30.26 | 30.81 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 1.39 | 1.48 | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.69 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.82 | 3.29 | 4.50 | 5.57 | 6.32 | 6.88 | 7.29 | 7.67 | 8.03 | 8.22 | 8.31 | 8.41 | 8.44 | 8.48 | 8.53 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.59 | 1.85 | 2.06 | 2.23 | 2.40 | 2.53 | 2.65 | 2.74 | 2.83 | 2.90 | 2.96 | 3.02 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 27
| Investment-grade cumulative default rates (%) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | 'A' infrastructure corporates and project finance | 'BBB' infrastructure corporates and project finance | 'A' nonfinancial corporates | 'BBB' nonfinancial corporates | ||||||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.12 | ||||||
| 2 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 0.33 | ||||||
| 3 | 0.27 | 0.65 | 0.11 | 0.60 | ||||||
| 4 | 0.38 | 0.89 | 0.19 | 0.95 | ||||||
| 5 | 0.49 | 1.09 | 0.29 | 1.34 | ||||||
| 6 | 0.57 | 1.28 | 0.41 | 1.74 | ||||||
| 7 | 0.63 | 1.49 | 0.57 | 2.08 | ||||||
| 8 | 0.67 | 1.69 | 0.73 | 2.41 | ||||||
| 9 | 0.71 | 1.84 | 0.89 | 2.73 | ||||||
| 10 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.05 | 3.05 | ||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
Table 28
| Speculative-grade cumulative default rates (%) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | 'BB' infrastructure corporates and project finance | 'B' infrastructure corporates and project finance | 'CCC'/'C' infrastructure | 'BB' nonfinancial corporates | 'B' nonfinancial corporates | 'CCC'/'C' nonfinancial corporates | ||||||||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
| 1 | 0.26 | 1.66 | 13.81 | 0.59 | 3.15 | 26.74 | ||||||||
| 2 | 0.70 | 3.60 | 21.16 | 1.93 | 7.45 | 37.01 | ||||||||
| 3 | 1.48 | 4.97 | 25.03 | 3.48 | 11.32 | 42.47 | ||||||||
| 4 | 2.26 | 6.21 | 27.61 | 5.04 | 14.44 | 45.55 | ||||||||
| 5 | 2.94 | 7.05 | 28.51 | 6.50 | 16.89 | 47.91 | ||||||||
| 6 | 3.37 | 7.82 | 29.23 | 7.84 | 18.84 | 49.03 | ||||||||
| 7 | 3.62 | 8.37 | 30.26 | 9.01 | 20.40 | 50.15 | ||||||||
| 8 | 3.93 | 8.83 | 30.81 | 10.10 | 21.63 | 50.84 | ||||||||
| 9 | 4.19 | 9.40 | 31.11 | 11.08 | 22.74 | 51.47 | ||||||||
| 10 | 4.33 | 9.76 | 31.11 | 11.94 | 23.76 | 52.02 | ||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||
Table 29
| Average cumulative default rates (1981-2022) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | ||||||||||||||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.65 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 1.28 | 1.49 | 1.69 | 1.84 | 2.00 | 2.17 | 2.31 | 2.45 | 2.60 | 2.74 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.26 | 0.70 | 1.48 | 2.26 | 2.94 | 3.37 | 3.62 | 3.93 | 4.19 | 4.33 | 4.43 | 4.54 | 4.60 | 4.67 | 4.74 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.66 | 3.61 | 4.93 | 6.17 | 7.01 | 7.78 | 8.34 | 8.79 | 9.37 | 9.72 | 9.82 | 9.92 | 9.92 | 9.92 | 9.92 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 13.85 | 21.14 | 25.08 | 27.71 | 28.63 | 29.36 | 30.39 | 30.94 | 31.23 | 31.23 | 31.23 | 31.23 | 31.23 | 31.23 | 31.23 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 1.39 | 1.48 | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.69 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.81 | 3.26 | 4.47 | 5.54 | 6.28 | 6.85 | 7.26 | 7.64 | 7.99 | 8.19 | 8.28 | 8.38 | 8.41 | 8.45 | 8.50 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 0.87 | 1.24 | 1.58 | 1.84 | 2.05 | 2.23 | 2.39 | 2.52 | 2.64 | 2.74 | 2.82 | 2.89 | 2.96 | 3.02 | |||||||||||||||||
| Project finance | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.29 | 1.62 | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.01 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.47 | 0.70 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 1.33 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.33 | 0.85 | 2.22 | 3.29 | 4.44 | 5.23 | 5.71 | 6.37 | 6.94 | 7.26 | 7.43 | 7.62 | 7.83 | 8.08 | 8.37 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 2.13 | 4.37 | 5.10 | 5.87 | 6.70 | 7.58 | 8.55 | 9.36 | 10.24 | 10.56 | 10.56 | 10.56 | 10.56 | 10.56 | 10.56 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 11.04 | 16.97 | 21.94 | 26.01 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | 26.88 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 1.28 | 1.49 | 1.66 | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.79 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.75 | 3.23 | 4.69 | 5.89 | 6.92 | 7.67 | 8.27 | 8.92 | 9.54 | 9.83 | 9.93 | 10.05 | 10.18 | 10.33 | 10.51 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.62 | 1.23 | 1.84 | 2.38 | 2.86 | 3.18 | 3.46 | 3.73 | 3.97 | 4.16 | 4.33 | 4.49 | 4.61 | 4.66 | 4.72 | |||||||||||||||||
| Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.73 | 1.06 | 1.34 | 1.69 | 2.07 | 2.45 | 2.80 | 3.20 | 3.49 | 3.73 | 4.00 | 4.41 | 4.76 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.42 | 0.72 | 1.21 | 1.75 | 2.36 | 2.70 | 3.08 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.38 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.02 | 2.53 | 3.69 | 4.82 | 5.63 | 6.67 | 7.16 | 7.53 | 8.37 | 9.08 | 9.35 | 9.64 | 9.64 | 9.64 | 9.64 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 10.61 | 17.35 | 20.10 | 21.51 | 22.23 | 22.23 | 23.10 | 24.05 | 24.05 | 24.05 | 24.05 | 24.05 | 24.05 | 24.05 | 24.05 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.38 | 1.56 | 1.74 | 1.88 | 2.03 | 2.19 | 2.37 | 2.52 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.34 | 2.54 | 3.44 | 4.27 | 4.97 | 5.56 | 6.03 | 6.41 | 6.76 | 7.05 | 7.16 | 7.29 | 7.29 | 7.29 | 7.29 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 0.92 | 1.32 | 1.70 | 2.02 | 2.33 | 2.59 | 2.83 | 3.04 | 3.26 | 3.39 | 3.53 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 3.92 | |||||||||||||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.16 | 0.44 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 1.07 | 1.23 | 1.41 | 1.62 | 1.72 | 1.84 | 1.96 | 2.07 | 2.18 | 2.30 | 2.43 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.07 | 0.55 | 1.13 | 1.88 | 2.27 | 2.51 | 2.51 | 2.60 | 2.78 | 2.88 | 2.99 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 2.33 | 4.75 | 7.04 | 8.99 | 9.90 | 10.13 | 10.37 | 10.61 | 10.61 | 10.61 | 10.61 | 10.61 | 10.61 | 10.61 | 10.61 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 18.69 | 27.40 | 31.46 | 34.06 | 35.15 | 36.80 | 38.52 | 39.14 | 39.80 | 39.80 | 39.80 | 39.80 | 39.80 | 39.80 | 39.80 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.45 | 0.59 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 1.16 | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.39 | 1.44 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 2.40 | 4.13 | 5.44 | 6.64 | 7.21 | 7.59 | 7.82 | 7.99 | 8.18 | 8.24 | 8.31 | 8.38 | 8.38 | 8.38 | 8.38 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.38 | 0.74 | 1.03 | 1.29 | 1.47 | 1.61 | 1.72 | 1.84 | 1.92 | 1.98 | 2.05 | 2.11 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.25 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 0.75 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.21 | 0.55 | 0.91 | 1.04 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.73 | 1.66 | 2.33 | 3.06 | 3.85 | 4.94 | 5.18 | 5.18 | 5.47 | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.80 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 5.77 | 8.98 | 11.44 | 14.01 | 15.40 | 15.40 | 17.28 | 19.34 | 19.34 | 19.34 | 19.34 | 19.34 | 19.34 | 19.34 | 19.34 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 0.74 | 1.48 | 2.08 | 2.58 | 3.04 | 3.47 | 3.66 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 4.01 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.30 | 0.61 | 0.89 | 1.14 | 1.36 | 1.56 | 1.68 | 1.79 | 1.86 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 | |||||||||||||||||
| Power | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.33 | 4.83 | 4.83 | 4.83 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.23 | 0.97 | 1.75 | 2.49 | 3.09 | 3.84 | 4.54 | 5.16 | 5.84 | 6.59 | 7.25 | 7.79 | 8.40 | 9.31 | 10.08 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.77 | 1.19 | 1.65 | 2.53 | 3.90 | 5.03 | 5.82 | 6.43 | 6.43 | 6.43 | 6.43 | 6.43 | 6.43 | 6.43 | 6.43 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.27 | 3.03 | 4.41 | 5.64 | 6.45 | 7.05 | 7.75 | 8.58 | 10.04 | 11.17 | 11.83 | 12.59 | 12.59 | 12.59 | 12.59 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 12.62 | 21.87 | 26.54 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | 29.31 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.21 | 0.89 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.85 | 3.55 | 4.20 | 4.77 | 5.40 | 6.10 | 6.71 | 7.38 | 8.13 | 8.96 | 9.67 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.84 | 3.42 | 4.54 | 5.68 | 6.73 | 7.57 | 8.25 | 8.90 | 9.46 | 9.90 | 10.14 | 10.43 | 10.43 | 10.43 | 10.43 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.01 | 2.13 | 3.04 | 3.94 | 4.73 | 5.49 | 6.15 | 6.75 | 7.36 | 7.95 | 8.41 | 8.94 | 9.42 | 9.96 | 10.43 | |||||||||||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1.20 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.50 | 3.15 | 4.08 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 10.87 | 15.96 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | 18.86 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.45 | 2.60 | 3.65 | 4.23 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 4.56 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.26 | 0.55 | 0.81 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | |||||||||||||||||
| Social | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 3.01 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.50 | 25.00 | 37.50 | 37.50 | 37.50 | 37.50 | 37.50 | 37.50 | 37.50 | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 11.11 | 28.89 | 46.67 | 64.44 | 64.44 | 64.44 | 64.44 | 64.44 | 64.44 | 64.44 | 64.44 | 64.44 | 64.44 | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 0.51 | 1.08 | 1.71 | 2.42 | 3.21 | 4.09 | 5.11 | 6.32 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 7.77 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.87 | 1.05 | 1.26 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | |||||||||||||||||
| Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.61 | 0.86 | 1.13 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.74 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.24 | 0.61 | 0.86 | 1.24 | 1.64 | 1.91 | 2.18 | 2.32 | 2.46 | 2.74 | 3.19 | 3.50 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 3.82 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.43 | 1.09 | 3.96 | 6.23 | 8.09 | 9.28 | 10.24 | 11.22 | 11.96 | 12.47 | 12.74 | 13.02 | 13.31 | 13.64 | 14.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 3.62 | 7.69 | 8.82 | 9.98 | 10.77 | 11.97 | 13.19 | 14.45 | 15.73 | 16.16 | 16.16 | 16.16 | 16.16 | 16.16 | 16.16 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 15.00 | 21.25 | 25.00 | 27.54 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | 28.81 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 1.09 | 1.20 | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.59 | 1.81 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 2.93 | 5.28 | 7.67 | 9.59 | 11.03 | 12.10 | 13.06 | 14.02 | 14.86 | 15.29 | 15.44 | 15.60 | 15.77 | 15.95 | 16.16 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.81 | 1.53 | 2.28 | 2.95 | 3.51 | 3.93 | 4.33 | 4.70 | 5.00 | 5.22 | 5.41 | 5.60 | 5.76 | 5.82 | 5.88 | |||||||||||||||||
| N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 30
| All infrastructure cumulative default rates, 1981-2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.65 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 1.28 | 1.49 | 1.69 | 1.84 | 2.00 | 2.17 | 2.31 | 2.45 | 2.60 | 2.74 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.26 | 0.70 | 1.48 | 2.26 | 2.94 | 3.37 | 3.62 | 3.93 | 4.19 | 4.33 | 4.43 | 4.54 | 4.60 | 4.67 | 4.74 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.66 | 3.60 | 4.97 | 6.21 | 7.05 | 7.82 | 8.37 | 8.83 | 9.40 | 9.76 | 9.85 | 9.95 | 9.95 | 9.95 | 9.95 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 13.81 | 21.16 | 25.03 | 27.61 | 28.51 | 29.23 | 30.26 | 30.81 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | 31.11 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 1.39 | 1.48 | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.69 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.82 | 3.29 | 4.50 | 5.57 | 6.32 | 6.88 | 7.29 | 7.67 | 8.03 | 8.22 | 8.31 | 8.41 | 8.44 | 8.48 | 8.53 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.59 | 1.85 | 2.06 | 2.23 | 2.40 | 2.53 | 2.65 | 2.74 | 2.83 | 2.90 | 2.96 | 3.02 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate cumulative default rates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.37 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.55 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.89 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 1.61 | 1.75 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.95 | 1.34 | 1.74 | 2.08 | 2.41 | 2.73 | 3.05 | 3.34 | 3.57 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.19 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.59 | 1.93 | 3.48 | 5.04 | 6.50 | 7.84 | 9.01 | 10.10 | 11.08 | 11.94 | 12.65 | 13.32 | 13.94 | 14.45 | 15.01 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 3.15 | 7.45 | 11.32 | 14.44 | 16.89 | 18.84 | 20.40 | 21.63 | 22.74 | 23.76 | 24.63 | 25.32 | 25.97 | 26.58 | 27.17 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 26.74 | 37.01 | 42.47 | 45.55 | 47.91 | 49.03 | 50.15 | 50.84 | 51.47 | 52.02 | 52.52 | 52.94 | 53.45 | 53.84 | 53.84 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 0.55 | 0.79 | 1.03 | 1.26 | 1.48 | 1.70 | 1.91 | 2.11 | 2.27 | 2.42 | 2.56 | 2.72 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.73 | 7.25 | 10.28 | 12.76 | 14.79 | 16.44 | 17.81 | 18.95 | 19.97 | 20.89 | 21.66 | 22.32 | 22.94 | 23.49 | 24.03 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.91 | 3.74 | 5.31 | 6.63 | 7.73 | 8.64 | 9.40 | 10.05 | 10.62 | 11.15 | 11.60 | 11.97 | 12.31 | 12.62 | 12.93 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 31
| Marginal default rates, 1981-2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||||||||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||
| BB | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.14 | ||||||||||||
| B | 1.66 | 1.98 | 1.42 | 1.30 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.39 | ||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.32 | ||||||||||||
| BB | 0.59 | 1.35 | 1.58 | 1.61 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.27 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||
| B | 3.15 | 4.44 | 4.18 | 3.52 | 2.87 | 2.35 | 1.92 | 1.54 | 1.41 | 1.33 | ||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.91 | 1.86 | 1.63 | 1.39 | 1.18 | 0.99 | 0.84 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.59 | ||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Chart 26
Chart 27
Chart 28
Chart 29
Chart 30
Chart 31
Chart 32
Chart 33
Chart 34
Chart 35
Chart 36
Chart 37
Chart 38
Chart 39
Chart 40
Chart 41
Chart 42
Chart 43
Chart 44
Table 32
| Infrastructure rating distribution by region or country | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | North America* | U.S. | EMEA | Asia-Pacific | Canada | Latin America | Total | |||||||||
| Number of ratings | ||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||
| AA | 15 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 41 | |||||||||
| A | 177 | 117 | 142 | 7 | 60 | 24 | 350 | |||||||||
| BBB | 259 | 214 | 223 | 52 | 45 | 54 | 588 | |||||||||
| BB | 105 | 82 | 57 | 31 | 23 | 17 | 210 | |||||||||
| B | 53 | 53 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 81 | |||||||||
| CCC/C | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 25 | |||||||||
| % rating distribution by region or country | ||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | n/a | 0% | |||||||||
| AA | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 7% | 9% | 3% | |||||||||
| A | 29% | 24% | 31% | 7% | 43% | 22% | 27% | |||||||||
| BBB | 42% | 45% | 48% | 50% | 32% | 49% | 45% | |||||||||
| BB | 17% | 17% | 12% | 30% | 17% | 15% | 16% | |||||||||
| B | 9% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 6% | |||||||||
| CCC/C | 1% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||||||||
| Variance in rating distribution from total by region or country | ||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | N/A | 0% | |||||||||
| AA | -1% | -2% | 0% | -3% | 4% | 6% | 0% | |||||||||
| A | 2% | -3% | 4% | -20% | 16% | -5% | 0% | |||||||||
| BBB | -3% | -1% | 3% | 4% | -13% | 3% | 0% | |||||||||
| BB | 1% | 1% | -4% | 13% | 0% | -1% | 0% | |||||||||
| B | 2% | 5% | -2% | 0% | -6% | -4% | 0% | |||||||||
| CCC/C | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | -2% | -1% | 0% | |||||||||
| N/A--Not applicable. Ratings as of Jan. 1, 2023. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||
Table 33
| Infrastructure defaults | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issuer | Type | Subsector | Debt type | Country | Region | Default date | Rating prior to default |
|
Public Service Co. of New Hampshire |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/28/1988 | CCC |
|
Public Service Co. of New Hampshire |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/28/1988 | CCC- |
|
Public Service Co. of New Hampshire |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/28/1988 | CCC- |
|
Geothermal Resources International Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 8/11/1988 | CC |
|
Geothermal Resources International Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 8/11/1988 | CC |
|
Columbia Energy Group |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/31/1991 | BB |
|
Columbia Energy Group |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/31/1991 | BB |
|
Bonneville Pacific Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 12/6/1991 | CCC- |
|
Del Norte Funding Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/8/1992 | CCC- |
|
Del Norte Funding Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/8/1992 | CCC- |
|
El Paso Funding Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/8/1992 | CCC- |
|
El Paso Funding Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/8/1992 | CCC- |
|
El Paso Electric Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/27/1992 | CCC |
|
Mobile Energy Services Co. LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/15/1999 | CCC |
|
Southern California Edison Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/18/2001 | CC |
|
Southern California Edison Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/18/2001 | CC |
|
Southern California Edison Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/18/2001 | CC |
|
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/9/2001 | CC |
|
Southern California Edison Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/5/2001 | CC |
|
York Power Funding (Cayman) Ltd. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 10/31/2001 | BB- |
|
Enron Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/3/2001 | CC |
|
Enron Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/3/2001 | CC |
|
Enron Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 12/3/2001 | C |
|
Enron Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 12/3/2001 | C |
|
Northern Natural Gas Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/3/2001 | CC |
|
European Power Ltd. Co. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 12/5/2001 | B- |
|
Autopistas del Sol S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 2/1/2002 | CC |
|
Teesside Power Financing Ltd. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 2/18/2002 | BB |
|
Aguas Argentinas S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 2/19/2002 | CC |
|
Covanta Energy LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 3/1/2002 | B |
|
Covanta Energy LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 3/1/2002 | B- |
|
Covanta Energy LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 3/1/2002 | B- |
|
Inversora Electrica de Buenos Aires S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 3/15/2002 | CC |
|
Metrogas S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 4/2/2002 | CC |
|
Compania de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension TRANSENER S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 4/22/2002 | CC |
|
Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN) |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/7/2002 | CC |
|
Aguas Argentinas S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/16/2002 | CC |
|
Azurix Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/18/2002 | CC |
|
Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN) |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 6/26/2002 | CC |
|
Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 7/3/2002 | CC |
|
Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 9/17/2002 | CC |
|
Engie Energia Chile S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Chile | Latin America | 9/17/2002 | CC |
|
Energy Group Ltd. (The) |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 10/21/2002 | CC |
|
National Energy & Gas Transmission Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/14/2002 | B- |
|
TXU Eastern Funding Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 11/20/2002 | CC |
|
TXU Europe Ltd. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 11/20/2002 | CC |
|
EDF Energy Nuclear Generation Group Ltd. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 2/18/2003 | C |
|
CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Brazil | Latin America | 4/23/2003 | CC |
|
CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Brazil | Latin America | 4/23/2003 | CC |
|
NRG Energy Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/15/2003 | CC |
|
Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS) |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/16/2003 | CC |
|
Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS) |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/16/2003 | CC |
|
USGen New England, Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/8/2003 | C |
|
GenOn Americas LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
|
GenOn Americas LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
|
GenOn Energy Holdings Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
|
GenOn Mid-Atlantic LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
|
GenOn Mid-Atlantic LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
|
CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Brazil | Latin America | 8/14/2003 | CC |
|
CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Brazil | Latin America | 8/14/2003 | CC |
|
NorthWestern Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/15/2003 | CCC |
|
NorthWestern Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/15/2003 | CCC |
|
NorthWestern Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/15/2003 | CC |
|
Avon Energy Partners Holdings |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 1/16/2004 | CC |
|
TermoEmcali Funding Corp |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Colombia | Latin America | 9/15/2004 | CC |
|
Entergy New Orleans LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/18/2005 | CC |
|
Entergy New Orleans LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/18/2005 | CC |
|
Broad River Energy LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC- |
|
Calpine Canada Energy Finance II ULC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Canada | Canada | 12/21/2005 | CC |
|
Calpine Canada Energy Finance ULC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Canada | Canada | 12/21/2005 | CC |
|
Calpine Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC- |
|
Calpine Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CC |
|
Calpine Generating Co. LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC |
|
RockGen Energy LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC- |
|
Rumford Power Assoc L.P. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC- |
|
Eurotunnel S.A. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 8/16/2006 | C |
|
Fixed-Link Finance 2 B.V. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Netherlands | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 3/16/2007 | C |
|
Autopistas del Sol S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/30/2007 | B- |
|
Metronet Rail BCV Finance PLC |
Project Finance | Transportation | Senior Secured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 2/29/2008 | CC |
|
Metronet Rail SSL Finance PLC |
Project Finance | Transportation | Senior Secured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 2/29/2008 | CC |
|
Lane Cove Tunnel Finance Co. Pty Ltd. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Australia | Asia Pacific | 12/8/2008 | CC |
|
OOO Mostransavto-Finance |
Corporate Infrastructure | Other | Senior Unsecured | Russia | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 12/24/2008 | CC |
|
Northeast Biofuels L.P. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/14/2009 | C |
|
Fixed-Link Finance B.V. |
Project Finance | Other | Junior Subordinated | Netherlands | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 3/4/2009 | C |
|
Energy Future Holdings Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/16/2009 | CC |
|
Energy Future Holdings Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/16/2009 | CC |
|
Energy Future Holdings Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/16/2009 | CC |
|
Vistra Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/16/2009 | CC |
|
Autopistas del Sol S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 12/17/2009 | CC |
|
Bosque Power Co. LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 3/26/2010 | B |
|
Metrogas S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 6/18/2010 | CC |
|
Energy Future Holdings Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 8/17/2010 | CC |
|
Boston Generating LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 8/18/2010 | CC |
|
Vistra Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2010 | CCC |
|
Vistra Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/20/2011 | CC |
|
Vistra Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/20/2011 | CC |
|
Energy Future Holdings Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/2/2011 | CC |
|
Energy Future Holdings Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/2/2011 | CC |
|
Dynegy Danskammer LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/8/2011 | CC |
|
Dynegy Holdings LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/8/2011 | CC |
|
Astoria Generating Co. Acquisitions LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/7/2011 | CCC- |
|
Par Pacific Holdings Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/19/2011 | CC |
|
AES Eastern Energy L.P. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/3/2012 | CC |
|
LSP Energy L.P. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/19/2012 | CC |
|
Bicent Power LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/20/2012 | CC |
|
Homer City Funding LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/10/2012 | CC |
|
Energy Future Holdings Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/6/2012 | CC |
|
Choctaw Generation L.P. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/14/2012 | CC |
|
Edison Mission Energy |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/17/2012 | CCC- |
|
Midwest Generation, LLC |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/17/2012 | CCC+ |
|
Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/31/2013 | CC |
|
Vistra Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/31/2013 | CC |
|
Northland Resources A.B. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Sweden | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 3/7/2013 | C |
|
Longview Power LLC |
Project Finance | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/3/2013 | CCC- |
|
Breeze Finance S.A. |
Project Finance | Power | Subordinated | Luxembourg | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 10/31/2013 | C |
|
CRC Breeze Finance S.A. |
Project Finance | Power | Secured Subordinated Debt | Luxembourg | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 10/31/2013 | C |
|
Vistra Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/4/2014 | CC |
|
Energy Future Competitive Holdings Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | C |
|
Energy Future Holdings Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | C |
|
Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | C |
|
Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | C |
|
Vistra Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | CC |
|
Windsor Petroleum Transport Corp. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/16/2014 | CCC- |
|
Schahin II Finance Company (SPV) Limited |
Project Finance | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 10/1/2015 | CC |
|
Southcross Holdings Borrower LP |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 3/28/2016 | CC |
|
Ukrainian Railways JSC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Secured | Ukraine | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 3/31/2016 | CC |
|
Odebrecht Oil & Gas Finance Limited |
Project Finance | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 4/20/2016 | CC |
|
Lombard Public Facilities Corp |
Project Finance | Social Infrastructure | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/30/2016 | CC |
|
Homer City Generation L.P. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/25/2016 | CC |
|
Illinois Power Generating Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/19/2016 | CC |
|
Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd. |
Project Finance | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 4/3/2017 | CCC- |
|
GenOn Americas LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/14/2017 | CC |
|
GenOn Energy Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/14/2017 | CCC |
|
GenOn Energy Inc. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/14/2017 | CCC- |
|
Corporacion Electrica Nacional, S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Venezuela | U.S. | 11/10/2017 | CC |
|
ExGen Texas Power, LLC |
Project Finance | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/13/2017 | CCC- |
|
Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd. |
Project Finance | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 12/22/2017 | CC |
|
Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/24/2018 | CCC- |
|
Energy Harbor Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/2/2018 | C |
|
FirstEnergy Generation LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/2/2018 | C |
|
Corporacion Electrica Nacional, S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Venezuela | Latin America | 4/24/2018 | CC |
|
Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Luxembourg | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 5/9/2018 | B+ |
|
Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A. |
Project Finance | Other | Senior Unsecured | Luxembourg | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 5/9/2018 | B |
|
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/29/2019 | CC |
|
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/29/2019 | CC |
|
PES Holdings, LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/3/2019 | B- |
| Panda Green Energy Group Ltd. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Bermuda | U.S. | 1/21/2020 | CC |
|
Longview Power LLC |
Project Finance | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/14/2020 | CC |
|
Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Secured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/19/2020 | CC |
|
CSI Compressco L.P. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/16/2020 | C |
|
Ferrellgas Partners L.P. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/16/2020 | C |
|
Summit Midstream Finance Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/23/2020 | CCC- |
|
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 8/14/2020 | CC |
|
Summit Midstream Finance Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/25/2020 | CC |
|
Frontera Generation Holdings LLC |
Project Finance | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/23/2020 | CCC |
|
Summit Midstream Partners Holdings LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/18/2020 | C |
|
Glass Mountain Pipeline Holdings LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 8/9/2021 | CC |
|
Ruby Pipeline LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/1/2022 | CCC- |
|
PSS Industrial Group Corp. |
Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/7/2022 | CCC- |
|
Talen Energy Supply LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/10/2022 | CCC+ |
|
Talen Energy Supply LLC |
Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/10/2022 | CC |
This report does not constitute a rating action.
| Ratings Performance Analytics: | Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698; nick.kraemer@spglobal.com |
| Zev R Gurwitz, New York + 1 (212) 438 7128; zev.gurwitz@spglobal.com | |
| Research Contributor: | Nivritti Mishra Richhariya, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai |
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