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Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions Monitor 4Q 2023: Outlook Stable, Strains Manageable
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Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions Monitor 4Q 2023: Outlook Stable, Strains Manageable

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Key Takeaways

  • Our outlook for the Asia-Pacific financial institutions sector remains steady. As of Sept. 28, 2023, 83% of bank rating outlooks were stable.
  • While property is a key risk, we view the unfolding property market strains as broadly manageable across Asia-Pacific banking systems at current rating levels.
  • Other key risks are an economic downside significantly outside our base case, and high public and private sector indebtedness.

A key risk to our current base case for continuing ratings stability is if economic downside risks intensify significantly. Banks' net interest margins are benefiting from higher interest rates, but materially weaker economic growth prospects or higher-for-longer interest rates will hurt banks' asset quality. This is especially the case amid already-highly leveraged corporate, household, and government sectors, and the property markets in the region that are experiencing pockets of stress (see "Asia-Pacific Sector Roundup Q4 2023: A Skewed Recovery," published on RatingsDirect on Sept. 27, 2023).

We continue to anticipate higher credit losses across Asia-Pacific banking in both 2023 and 2024. Interest rate hikes and slowing economies will drive these losses. While these factors will take a toll on borrowers and, in turn, banks' asset quality, our current broadly stable outlook takes into account higher credit losses in line with our forecasts (see "Global Banks: Our Credit Loss Forecasts," published July 12, 2023).

Contagion risks to Asia-Pacific banks' funding and liquidity in the wake of Credit Suisse and U.S. regional bank failures have moderated. Nonetheless, amid higher rates and lower growth, investor confidence could again easily waver. Furthermore, we believe that climate change, cyber risks, and digitalization trends affecting the competitive landscape are structural risks that will increasingly test banks and their borrowers.

The Ability Of Asia-Pacific Sovereigns To Support Banks Remains Strong

Asia-Pacific's major banks differ to global peers in one important aspect. They would likely receive extraordinary government support in the event of distress, and this feeds through to ratings in the form of notching uplift.

Banks in the U.S. and western Europe would be more reliant on additional loss-absorbing capital (ALAC) in times of distress. ALAC, likewise, can result in ratings uplift. This distinguishing factor deepens the ties between Asia-Pacific banks and sovereign credit quality. That means banks are more sensitive to worsening government finances, and sovereigns to losses at banks.

Asia-Pacific debt increased a lot but that doesn't mean that government debt is excessive.

In terms of what this means for their ability to support banks: they remain strong, despite the higher debt burdens they shoulder. Most sovereigns in the region are investment-grade. That means they can support their banking systems--which are closely correlated to their creditworthiness.

Ratings on Asia-Pacific bank have stayed resilient.

More than 80% of bank outlooks in the region are on stable outlook and the median rating is solidly in the investment-grade category at 'A-' as of end-September 2023 (see "Panelists Discuss The Ties That Bind Asia-Pacific Bank And Sovereign Ratings," published Sept. 28, 2023).

Capital Ratios Continue On Normalizing Trend

We expect the risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratios of the top 200 banks to continue to decrease modestly, by about 5 basis points (bps) over the two years to the end of 2024.

Bank capital around the world proved resilient to the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, thanks to strengthened supervision and capital requirements from the past decade, as well as unprecedented government support to the private sector. In 2020, regulatory restrictions on shareholder distributions (dividend payouts and share buybacks) led to banks preserving capital, but distributions resumed thereafter.

The end of ultra-low interest rates from central banks from 2022 has significantly boosted bank earnings thanks to higher net interest income. Looking ahead, we believe that normalizing credit costs, higher funding costs, and softer loan growth will gradually offset much of this boost (see "Top 200 Banks: Capital Ratios Continue To Normalize After Pandemic Peaks," published Sept. 18, 2023).

Property Market Downturn Is Top Of Mind For Investors

Contagion risk arising from property market strains are on the minds of investors as Asia-Pacific grapples with high rates and sharp drops in home sales in key markets, particularly China.

We view the unfolding strains as broadly manageable across Asia-Pacific banking systems. The region's lenders are built to withstand the frequent bouts of volatility. Institutions are adequately capitalized and closely regulated. We nevertheless note that property markets can quickly move from downturn to crisis. The heavy leverage of the sector, the high involvement of individual homeowners alongside developers and investors, and the potential for spillover to banks have triggered many property-led contagion events in recent history, not least the global financial crisis.

China is the epicenter of the region's property strains.

No country has seen as much real estate wealth evaporate as China has since 2021. China is not contending with the high rates that are hurting other markets--it is cutting rates, in fact. Instead, the property sector's downturn is the byproduct of opaque accounting at some large developers, high leverage, and other aggressive practices. Put most simply, its downturn is the result of excess and loose standards that accumulated after decades of growth.

S&P Global Ratings sticks with its base case, which is for Chinese property sales to fall 3%-5% in 2023, or to renminbi (RMB) 12 trillion-RMB13 trillion in the year. However, the odds are growing that sales will approach our bear-case level of about RMB10 trillion-RMB11 trillion in 2023-2024 (see "How The Property Downturn Is Hitting Asia-Pacific Banks," published Aug. 31, 2023).

As Tech Developments Accelerate, Cyber Risks Are Elevated

As highlighted in our in our recent Credit Conditions Asia-Pacific Q4 2023 publication, increasing interconnectedness of economic activity means expanding exposure of critical infrastructure and issuer operations to cyber-attacks. This could evolve into systemic threat and significant single-entity risk (see "Credit Conditions Asia-Pacific Q4 2023, China Downside Risk Is High," Sept. 26, 2023).

Greater credit differentiation is a noteworthy theme that could impact the financial institutions sector both globally and regionally. We anticipate that cyber risk, as with other cyclical and structural risks impacting financial institutions also could also play out differently across sub-sectors and geographies across the industry.

For example, we believe that Australian mutuals may face more cyber threats as they further embrace technology compared with larger peers. S&P Global Ratings believes mutual banks are more vulnerable than larger peers.

This is because the larger banks have bigger security budgets, better access to cyber skills and overall better defenses. Cyber attackers would be inclined to follow a path of least resistance. Consequently, mutual banks' limited financial capacity could make them easier targets for cyber-attacks in Australia.

Mutual banks are increasingly using third-party cloud-based technologies that leverage application programming interfaces, among other technologies. This is helping them to meet customers' growing preferences for online banking and to streamline their operations but within their financial capacity. But it still requires cyber expertise to manage and understand the associated risks; these skillsets are short in supply, locally and globally.

Not meeting these challenges could introduce credit risk. Failure to adequately invest in cyber security could open the mutuals up to damaging cyber events (see "Australian Mutual Lenders: Path Of Least Resistance May Lead To Higher Cyber Risk," published Aug. 29, 2023).

Benefits Of Generative AI Solutions Will Be Incremental

We believe that the changes artificial intelligence (AI) will usher in could also have implications for our assessment of banks' credit quality.

In our view, testing of generative AI solutions will accelerate over the next two to five years, while benefits are likely to prove incremental. Banks are adopting generative AI, which promises earnings growth, improvements to decision-making, and better risk management. But it also comes with new risks, concerns, and costs that banks will have to manage.

This new wave of AI promises to reshape the industry, at a steady and incremental rate, by providing new capabilities, revenue opportunities, and cost reductions. Over time, that could tilt the competitive landscape in favor of those banks that best use AI's potential (see "Future Of Banking: AI Will Be An Incremental Game Changer," published Oct. 3, 2023).

BICRA Changes

Over the past quarter (through September 28, 2023), following changes have been made to our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments (BICRAs) in the Asia-Pacific region.

Bangladesh

We have revised our industry risk trend for Bangladesh to negative from stable. This reflects rising systemwide funding risks for Bangladesh banks, particularly in U.S. dollars, as a result of the country's external position.

We will revise our Bangladesh Industry Risk and BICRA assessment to 10 from 9 if:

  • There is sustained pressure on Bangladesh's external position; or
  • There is a continued decline in foreign exchange reserves, resulting in a worsening of its external debt or liquidity metrics leading to widespread foreign currency liquidity shortages and stress in the banking sector.

We will revise the industry risk trend to stable from negative if:

  • Bangladesh materially improves its external position, which would likely be indicated by a substantial increase in foreign exchange reserves combined with a modest current account deficit, and healthy growth in current account receipts; or
  • Exchange rate pressure abates, accompanied by improved availability of foreign currency in the interbank market. This is to ensure the financial sector has sufficient access to diversified funding sources to service its U.S. dollar obligations, such as remittances and exporter requirements. Sufficient access would be demonstrated mainly by a reduction in the time banks take to settle foreign currency letters of credit, from the current 10-15 days, as suggested anecdotally.

We have published the following comprehensive BICRA reports in the past quarter in Asia-Pacific.

The table below presents S&P Global Ratings' views about key risks and risk trends for banking sectors in Asia-Pacific countries where we rate banks. For more detailed information, please refer to the latest BICRA on a given country. According to our methodology, BICRAs fall into groups from'1' to '10', ranging from what we view as the lowest-risk banking systems (group '1') to the highest-risk (group '10').

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Table 1

Real GDP Forecast
Change from prior forecast
(% year over year) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025
Australia 3.7 1.7 1.1 2.3 2.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.2
China 3.0 4.8 4.4 5.0 4.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.3
Hong Kong -3.5 4.0 2.6 2.7 2.3 -1.2 -0.2 0.0
India 7.2 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indonesia 5.3 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Japan 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.0
Malaysia 8.7 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Zealand 2.3 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
Philippines 7.6 5.2 6.1 6.2 6.4 -0.7 0.2 -0.4
Singapore 3.6 1.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.0
South Korea 2.6 1.2 2.2 2.4 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
Taiwan 2.4 0.5 3.0 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.5 0.0
Thailand 2.6 2.8 3.5 3.2 3.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.1
Vietnam 8.0 4.5 6.5 6.8 6.6 -1 -0.4 0.0
Asia-Pacific 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1
Note: For India, 2022 = FY 2022 / 23, 2023 = FY 2023 / 24, 2024 = FY 2024 / 25, 2025 = FY 2025 / 26, 2026 = FY 2026 / 27. Source: S&P Global Ratings Economics.

Table 2

Issuer Credit Ratings And Component Scores For The Top 60 Asia-Pacific Banks
Institution Opco L-T ICR/outlook Anchor Business position Capital and earnings Risk position Funding and liquidity Comparable Rating Analysis SACP or Group SACP Type of support No. of notches of support Additional factor adjustment
Australia
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb+ Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a Sys. Imp. 2 0
Commonwealth Bank of Australia AA-/Stable bbb+ Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a Sys. Imp. 2 0
Macquarie Bank Ltd. A+/Stable bbb+ Adequate Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Sys. Imp. 2 0
National Australia Bank Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb+ Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a Sys. Imp. 2 0
Westpac Banking Corp. AA-/Stable bbb+ Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a Sys. Imp. 2 0
China
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. A/Stable bb+ Very Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 bbb+ GRE 2 0
Bank of China Ltd. A/Stable bbb- Very Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a- GRE 1 0
Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. A-/Stable bb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Adequate 0 bbb- GRE 3 0
China CITIC Bank Co. Ltd. BBB+/Positive bb+ Adequate Constrained Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 bb Group 4 0
China Construction Bank Corp. A/Stable bb+ Very Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 bbb+ GRE 2 0
China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd. BBB+/Positive bb+ Strong Adequate Strong Strong/Adequate 0 bbb Sys. Imp. 1 0
China Minsheng Banking Corp. Ltd. BBB-/Stable bb+ Adequate Constrained Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 bb Sys. Imp. 2 0
Hua Xia Bank Co. Ltd. BBB-/Stable bb+ Adequate Moderate Moderate Adequate/Adequate 0 bb GRE 2 0
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. A/Stable bb+ Very Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 bbb+ GRE 2 0
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co. Ltd. A/Stable bb+ Strong Moderate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 bbb GRE 3 0
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. Ltd. BBB/Stable bb+ Adequate Constrained Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 bb GRE 3 0
Hong Kong
Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd. A+/Stable bbb+ Strong Strong Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a+ Sys. Imp. 1 -1
Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd. A+/Stable bbb+ Adequate Strong Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a Sys. Imp. 1 0
The Bank of East Asia Ltd. A-/Stable bbb+ Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 bbb+ Sys. Imp. 1 0
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb+ Strong Strong Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a+ Sys. Imp. 1 0
India
Axis Bank Ltd. BBB-/Stable bbb- Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate -1 bbb- None 0 0
Kotak Mahindra Bank BBB-/Stable bbb- Adequate Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate -1 bbb- None 0 0
HDFC Bank Ltd. BBB-/Stable bbb- Strong Strong Strong Adequate/ Strong 0 a- None 0 -3
ICICI Bank Ltd. § BBB-/Stable bbb- Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 bbb None 0 -1
State Bank of India BBB-/Stable bbb- Strong Moderate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 bbb None 0 -1
Indonesia
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) BBB-/Stable bb+ Strong Strong Moderate Adequate/Strong 0 bbb- None 0 0
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. BBB-/Stable bb+ Strong Strong Moderate Adequate/Strong 0 bbb- None 0 0
Japan
Chiba Bank Ltd. A-/Stable bbb+ Adequate Adequate Strong Adequate/Strong 0 a- None 0 0
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.* A/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a None 0 0
Mizuho Financial Group Inc.* A/Stable bbb+ Strong Moderate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a- Sys. Imp. 1 0
Nomura Holdings Inc.* A-/Stable bbb+ Moderate Strong Moderate Adequate/Adequate 0 bbb Sys. Imp. 2 0
Norinchukin Bank A/Stable bbb+ Moderate Strong Moderate Strong/Strong 0 bbb+ Sys. Imp. 2 0
Resona Holdings* A/Stable bbb+ Adequate Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a- Sys. Imp. 1 0
Shinkin Central Bank A/Stable bbb+ Adequate Strong Moderate Adequate/Strong 0 bbb+ Sys. Imp. 2 0
Shizuoka Bank Ltd. A-/Stable bbb+ Adequate Strong Adequate Adequate/Strong 0 a- None 0 0
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.* A/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a None 0 0
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings* A/Stable bbb+ Strong Moderate Strong Adequate/Strong 0 a- Sys. Imp. 1 0
Korea
Industrial Bank of Korea AA-/Stable bbb+ Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 bbb+ GRE 4 0
KEB Hana Bank A+/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Sys. Imp. 2 0
Kookmin Bank A+/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Sys. Imp. 2 0
Nonghyup Bank A+/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/ Adequate 0 a- GRE 2 0
Shinhan Bank A+/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Sys. Imp. 2 0
Woori Bank A+/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Sys. Imp. 2 0
Malaysia
Public Bank Bhd. A-/Stable bbb Strong Strong Strong Strong/Strong -1 a None 0 -1
Malayan Banking Bhd. A-/Stable bbb Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a- None 0 0
CIMB Bank Bhd. A-/Stable bbb Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/Strong 0 a- None 0 0
New Zealand
ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Group 3 0
ASB Bank Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Group 3 0
Bank of New Zealand AA-/Stable bbb Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Group 3 0
Westpac New Zealand Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Group 3 0
Philippines
Bank of the Philippine Islands BBB+/ Stable bbb- Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/ Strong 0 bbb+ None 0 0
Singapore
DBS Bank Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/ Strong 0 a Sys. Imp. 2 0
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/ Strong 0 a Sys. Imp. 2 0
United Overseas Bank Ltd. AA-/Stable bbb+ Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/ Strong 0 a Sys. Imp. 2 0
Taiwan
CTBC Bank Co. Ltd. A/Stable bbb Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Strong 0 a- Sys. Imp. 1 0
Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd. A+/Stable bbb Strong Strong Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 a- Sys. Imp. 2 0
Thailand
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. BBB+/Stable bb Strong Adequate Adequate Strong/ Strong 0 bbb- Sys. Imp. 2 0
KASIKORNBANK PCL BBB/Stable bb Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate/Strong 0 bb+ Sys. Imp. 2 0
Krung Thai Bank Public Co. Ltd. BBB-/Stable bb Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate/Adequate 0 bb Sys. Imp. 2 0
Siam Commercial Bank Public Co. Ltd. BBB/Stable bb Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate/Strong 0 bb+ Sys. Imp. 2 0
Data as of Sept. 29, 2023. "Type of Support" column -"None" includes some banks where ratings uplift because of support factors may be possible but none is currently included. (For example, this column includes some systemically important banks where systemic importance results in no rating uplift). *Holding company; the rating reflects that on the main operating company. ICR--Issuer credit rating. GRE--Government-related entity. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile. Sys. Imp.--Systemically important. ALAC--Additional loss-absorbing capacity. N/A--Not applicable. Sov --Capped by Sovereign Rating. §This ICR applies to the Foreign Currency Rating only.
Ratings Actions

There were no rating actions for banks and bank holding companies during July 1 to Sept. 28, 2023.

Editor: Lex Hall

Digital designer: Halie Mustow

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Please see Instant Insights: Key Takeaways From Our Research, published Oct. 12, 2023, which is a curated compilation of the key takeaways from our most up-to-date thought leadership.

Webcasts: Asia-Pacific Banking Insights

In the last quarter, we have held the following webcasts to share our views on Asia-Pacific and other banking topics. The replays are available on

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/events/webcast-replays/index#

  • Replay: Global Credit Conditions Q4: Resilience Under Pressure (APAC Session), Sept. 28, 2023
  • Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions Virtual Conference 2023: Emerging Risks – Emerging Opportunities, Sept. 13-14, 2023
  • Australian Property Spotlight 2023: Will Property Have A Soft Landing On The Narrow Path, July 26, 2023
  • European Bank Funding, July 6, 2023

This report does not constitute a rating action.

S&P Global Ratings Australia Pty Ltd holds Australian financial services license number 337565 under the Corporations Act 2001. S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings and related research are not intended for and must not be distributed to any person in Australia other than a wholesale client (as defined in Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act).

Primary Credit Analyst:Gavin J Gunning, Melbourne + 61 3 9631 2092;
gavin.gunning@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Vera Chaplin, Melbourne + 61 3 9631 2058;
vera.chaplin@spglobal.com
Ryoji Yoshizawa, Tokyo + 81 3 4550 8453;
ryoji.yoshizawa@spglobal.com
Sharad Jain, Melbourne + 61 3 9631 2077;
sharad.jain@spglobal.com
Geeta Chugh, Mumbai + 912233421910;
geeta.chugh@spglobal.com
Nico N DeLange, Sydney + 61 2 9255 9887;
nico.delange@spglobal.com
Daehyun Kim, CFA, Hong Kong + 852 2533 3508;
daehyun.kim@spglobal.com
HongTaik Chung, CFA, Hong Kong + 852 2533 3597;
hongtaik.chung@spglobal.com
Chizuru Tateno, Tokyo + 81 3 4550 8578;
chizuru.tateno@spglobal.com
Ryan Tsang, CFA, Hong Kong + 852 2533 3532;
ryan.tsang@spglobal.com
Ming Tan, CFA, Singapore + 65 6216 1095;
ming.tan@spglobal.com
Lisa Barrett, Melbourne + 61 3 9631 2081;
lisa.barrett@spglobal.com
Eunice Fan, Taipei +886-2-2175-6818;
eunice.fan@spglobal.com
YuHan Lan, Taipei +886-2-2175-6810;
yuhan.lan@spglobal.com
Phyllis Liu, CFA, FRM, Hong Kong +852 2532 8036;
phyllis.liu@spglobal.com
Yiran Zhong, Hong Kong 25333582;
yiran.zhong@spglobal.com
Emily Yi, Hong Kong + 852 2532 8091;
emily.yi@spglobal.com
Susan Chu, Hong Kong (852) 2912-3055;
susan.chu@spglobal.com
Research Assistant:Priyal Shah, CFA, Mumbai

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