Sovereigns Defaults Increased To Five In 2022

Sovereign defaults in 2022 accelerated, with five foreign currency defaults through the year after just one default in 2021.

The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the sovereign defaults of both countries, together with Belarus. The conflict and pandemic spillovers magnified Ghana's fiscal and external imbalances, which led to a distressed debt restructuring, while Sri Lanka was severely strained by steeply rising external funding pressures and social and political unrest. Most of these sovereigns recorded multiple downgrades through the year.

Downgrades (including defaults) among sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings remained relatively stable, with 11 downgrades in 2022 compared with 12 in 2021, and 13 upgrades compared with 5 in 2021.

Both downgrades and upgrades were concentrated among emerging and frontier market countries. Excluding defaults, the downgraded sovereigns were confronted with pressures stemming from tight financing conditions, economic and external imbalances, and social unrest--issues demanding a timely and adequate policy response.

Because a sovereign has flexibility in servicing its local currency debt based on the unique powers it enjoys within its own borders, particularly in its control of domestic financial and monetary systems, S&P Global Ratings assigns both foreign currency and local currency ratings (including public and confidential) to sovereigns. This study focuses on foreign currency ratings unless otherwise noted.

2022 Defaults In Profile

On April 4, 2022, the Russian government made coupon and principal payments on its U.S. dollar denominated debt in rubles. S&P Global Ratings did not expect investors to be able to convert those rubles into dollars equivalent to the originally due amounts, nor did it think the Russian government would convert those payments within the 30-day grace period. As such, Russia's foreign currency rating was cut to selective default on April 9, 2022. Subsequently, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its ratings on Russia in compliance with EU sanctions (see "Russia Foreign Currency Ratings Cut To 'SD', Local Currency Ratings Kept At 'CC'; All Ratings Subsequently Withdrawn," April 9, 2022).

On April 18, 2022, Sri Lanka missed an interest payment on its US$1.25 billion international sovereign bonds maturing in 2023 and 2028 amid external funding pressures and political and social unrest. Debt repayment was contingent on a restructuring plan while the country aimed to conserve foreign exchange resources for the purchase of essential imports (see "Sri Lanka Foreign Currency Rating Lowered to 'SD' On Missed Sovereign Bond Interest Payments," April 25, 2022).

Following two downgrades within the year, Belarus was placed on selective default, as it serviced a coupon payment due in June in Belarusian rubles instead of U.S. dollars. The EU sanctions on Belarus, in view of its strategic alliance with Russia, weighed on the sovereign's ability to service its foreign currency denominated debt due to limited access to global financial infrastructure (see "Belarus Foreign Currency Ratings Lowered To 'SD/SD' On Ruble Payment Of Coupon On Dollar-Denominated Eurobond," Aug. 4, 2022).

Ukraine was placed on selective default in August 2022, following creditor consent to defer debt service payments on its Eurobonds due over the next 24 months, as the country faced fiscal and external pressures from the war (see "Ukraine FC Rating Lowered To 'SD' On Approved Debt Restructuring; LC Rating Lowered To 'CCC+' With Negative Outlook," Aug. 13, 2022). This marked the sovereign's second default, following the one in 2015.

Ghana was placed on selective default on Dec. 20, 2022, after the moratorium on principal and interest payments on foreign currency foreign law-debt. Besides a deteriorating financial environment and strained investor confidence, the country was highly challenged by low net reserves, exchange rate volatility, high inflation, and a weakened economy (see "Ghana Foreign Currency Ratings Lowered To 'SD' On Suspension Of Commercial Principal And Interest Payments," Dec. 21, 2022). This was also the only sovereign local currency default registered in 2022. Ghana's local currency rating was raised to 'CCC+' from 'SD' on Feb. 24, 2023, as the sovereign settled its local currency domestic debt exchange program with bondholders.

All of S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights' default studies have found a clear correlation between ratings and defaults: The higher the rating, the lower the observed frequency of default, and vice versa. With the exception of Russia's investment-grade rating, the defaulters in 2022 were rated across the lower end of the spectrum (ranging from rating categories 'B' to 'CCC/C') at the beginning of the year.

Nonetheless, the rapid deterioration of Russia's sovereign credit rating, (which fell 12 notches on its path to default), along with the defaults of Belarus and Ukraine, which were each rated in the 'B' category at the beginning of 2022, led to a decline in the one-year Gini ratio, which measures the rank-ordering power of ratings. The one-year Gini fell to 61.6% in 2022 (from 94.9% in 2021) for foreign currency ratings and to 78.0% (from 92.9%) for local currency ratings. The foreign currency one-year Gini fell to its lowest level since 2004 while the weighted-average Gini over a one-year horizon remains strong at 90.3%.

Rating Actions In 2022 Were Dominated By Emerging Markets

As countries began to recover from the pandemic, high global inflation led most central banks to pursue higher interest rates. This heightened refinancing risk, especially for sovereigns reliant on external funding. Higher interest rates and persistent inflation also weighed on growth prospects across the globe.

The Russia-Ukraine military sharply increased energy prices, with significant rating stability implications for sovereigns near and with greater historical linkages to both countries, such as those in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Emerging and frontier market sovereigns (see table 24 for reference) remained under pressure and accounted for the entirety of 2022 downgrades, two of which were downgrades from investment-grade ratings (Russia and Peru) and nine from speculative-grade ratings. The Central and Eastern Europe and CIS region accounted for 36% of the downgrades.

The majority of 2022 upgrades (nine of 13) were from emerging and frontier markets (see chart 7).

Around 82% of sovereign ratings were unchanged in 2022. 9.29% of sovereign ratings were upgraded--more than twice the share in 2021--signaling the post-pandemic recovery of sovereign credit quality. 4.29% of sovereigns were downgraded (the lowest percentage since 2007) and 3.57% defaulted. Indeed, downgrades were almost reduced by half with respect to 2021, leading to a downgrade ratio of 0.46 to 1, close to the 15-year low of 0.33 in 2019 (see table 1).

Table 1

Summary of sovereign net annual foreign-currency rating changes (%)
Year	Issuers as of Jan. 1	Upgrades	Downgrades	Defaults	Withdrawn ratings	Changed ratings	Unchanged ratings	Downgrade/upgrade ratio
1995	49	22.45	2.04	0.00	0.00	24.49	75.51	0.09
1996	53	15.09	3.77	0.00	0.00	18.87	81.13	0.25
1997	62	11.29	6.45	0.00	0.00	17.74	82.26	0.57
1998	74	6.76	16.22	0.00	0.00	22.97	77.03	2.40
1999	79	11.39	8.86	3.80	0.00	24.05	75.95	0.78
2000	83	10.84	6.02	1.20	0.00	18.07	81.93	0.56
2001	88	18.18	10.23	1.14	0.00	29.55	70.45	0.56
2002	90	15.56	10.00	1.11	0.00	26.67	73.33	0.64
2003	93	18.28	5.38	2.15	1.08	26.88	73.12	0.29
2004	97	27.84	6.19	1.03	0.00	35.05	64.95	0.22
2005	106	16.04	2.83	1.89	0.00	20.75	79.25	0.18
2006	112	17.86	3.57	0.89	1.79	24.11	75.89	0.20
2007	113	20.35	2.65	0.00	0.88	23.89	76.11	0.13
2008	119	7.56	12.61	1.68	0.84	22.69	77.31	1.67
2009	123	1.63	16.26	0.00	1.63	19.51	80.49	10.00
2010	125	16.00	10.40	0.80	0.00	27.20	72.80	0.65
2011	128	14.84	20.31	0.00	1.56	36.72	63.28	1.37
2012	129	7.75	15.50	2.33	0.00	25.58	74.42	2.00
2013	130	4.62	12.31	2.31	2.31	21.54	78.46	2.67
2014	132	8.33	13.64	0.76	1.52	24.24	75.76	1.64
2015	133	11.28	15.79	0.75	0.00	27.82	72.18	1.40
2016	136	6.62	16.91	1.47	1.47	26.47	73.53	2.56
2017	137	9.49	12.41	3.65	2.19	27.74	72.26	1.31
2018	133	10.53	7.52	0.75	0.00	18.80	81.20	0.71
2019	134	13.43	4.48	0.75	0.00	18.66	81.34	0.33
2020	139	2.16	15.83	4.32	0.00	22.30	77.70	7.33
2021	137	3.65	8.03	0.73	0.00	12.41	87.59	2.20
2022	140	9.29	4.29	3.57	0.71	17.86	82.14	0.46
Weighted average		10.61	9.73	1.28	0.58	22.20	77.80	1.58
Median		7.66	6.56	0.00	0.00	18.83	81.17	0.68
Std. dev.		7.59	6.08	1.16	0.66	10.75	10.75	2.07
Minimum		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	63.28	0.09
Maximum		27.84	23.08	4.32	2.31	36.72	100.00	10.00
This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. Excludes downgrades to 'SD,' shown separately in the default column. Descriptive statistics at the bottom of the table based on data from 1975-2022. Std. dev--Standard deviation. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®.

We downgraded five sovereigns (Bolivia, El Salvador, Pakistan, Peru, and Turkiye) by one notch through the year. We lowered our ratings on Turkiye to 'B' from 'B+' due to imbalances in its financial stability and fiscal positioning stemming from its loose monetary and fiscal policy. Pakistan was downgraded to 'CCC+' from 'B-' due to low foreign exchange reserves, material physical climate risk such as flooding, surging food and energy inflation, and rising global interest rates clouding potential economic and fiscal outcomes and implying refinancing challenges over the medium term.

Among Latin American sovereigns, we lowered our ratings on El Salvador to 'CCC+' from 'B-' on narrowing financing options. The sovereign is highly dependent on favorable economic conditions to meet its financial commitments and heavy reliance on short-term domestic debt exacerbated rollover risk. We downgraded Peru to 'BBB' from 'BBB+' due to political deadlock weighing on investor confidence and growth prospects. The downgrade on Bolivia to 'B' from 'B+' followed a deterioration of fiscal and external buffers. Additionally, a deepening lack of political consensus increased the uncertainty on timely policy implementation to cushion vulnerabilities.

We lowered the rating on Burkina Faso by two notches to 'CCC+' from 'B' following a military coup that heightened political, economic, and financial risks.

The other downgrades ranging between five to 12 notches correspond to the five aforementioned defaults through the year.

Sovereign upgrades in 2022 ranged from one to two notches and were mainly triggered by improved economic outlook/performance, declining debt burdens, and favorable policy decisions

To measure rating transitions over a one-year horizon, we use a static pool approach to compare the issuer credit ratings as of the beginning of the year with those at year-end. This approach measures the net rating migration for an issuer during the course of the year, rather than the number of times a rating changed.

For example, a rating that we lowered twice in 2022 would be counted as one issuer downgrade, rather than two individual downgrades.

Large rating transitions are not common among sovereigns. Most downgrades are typically one notch, or occasionally two. Sovereign upgrades within a calendar year seldom exceed one notch.

In 2022, the average downgrade (excluding defaults) was 1.17 notches, almost unchanged relative to the 1.18 notch average in 2021. The average upgrade in 2022 inched slightly upward to 1.15 notches from 1 in 2021 (see chart 8).

Since 1975, 78% of sovereign rating actions within a single year have been rating movements of one notch (see chart 9), with the majority being upgrades (57%). However, when considering rating actions encompassing two or more notches, downgrades overcome upgrades by a factor of four. This shows that adverse credit risk shocks tend to materialize in a quicker and less predictable way than positive uplifts for sovereign credit ratings.

Many of the more pronounced multi-notch downgrades include sovereigns that defaulted from a low rating category. The largest multi-notch downgrade that we have observed within a single year occurred in 2022, when we downgraded Russia by 12 notches during the year to 'SD' from a rating of 'BBB-' at the beginning of the year. Prior to this, the largest rating change in a single year was 10 notches over four downgrades on the Republic of Korea (South Korea) in 1997, which brought the sovereign credit rating to 'B+' from 'AA-'. Since then, we've raised our rating on South Korea nine times, and the long-term sovereign credit rating is currently 'AA'.

Ginis And Ratings Performance

S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings continue to serve as effective indicators of relative default risk. To measure ratings performance, we use the Gini ratio, which is a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon, from one through seven years. The Gini ratio shows the ratio of actual rank-ordering performance to a theoretically perfect rank ordering. A Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating a stronger relationship between lower rating categories and higher default rates (for details on the Gini methodology, see Appendix 1.)

With a one-year Gini ratio of 61.6% in 2022, foreign-currency ratings were well-below the average annual one-year Gini ratio of 88.2% and the one-year weighted average Gini ratio of 90.3%. This marks a change over the past two years, when the one-year Gini ratio was above 90%. Lower one-year Ginis were registered only in 2001 and 2004. While we observed few defaults in those years, the defaulters were rated relatively high (in the 'BB' category). Defaulters in these years included: Argentina in 2001 and Grenada in 2004 (both to 'SD' from 'BB-').

Local currency ratings also showed weakened ratings performance in 2022, with a one-year Gini ratio of 78%, below the annual average and weighted average Gini ratios of 88% and 86.4%, respectively (see table 2).

After the global financial crisis, sovereigns have for the most part shown very strong rating performance, with Gini so far dipping below 90% only during three of the years for foreign and local currency ratings. With a relatively smaller number of rated sovereigns compared to other sectors, credit events such as the global financial crisis in 2008 or the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012 had outsize effects on ratings performance, especially when measured over periods longer than one year.

Table 2

Global average Gini coefficients for sovereign ratings
	--Time horizon--
(%)	One year	Three year	Five year	10 year
Foreign currency
Weighted average	90.26	81.44	76.40	69.99
Average	88.17	79.86	73.93	68.68
St. dev	15.77	11.58	12.74	9.68
Local currency
Weighted average	86.4	73.88	68.36	59.33
Average	87.9	76.50	70.82	66.11
St. dev	11.75	16.57	18.47	19.59
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Lower Rated Sovereigns Remain At Eight For The Third Consecutive Year, Pointing To Continued Default Risk

The number of rated sovereigns has grown through the years as governments have become more prone to raising external financing through international bond markets. We've assigned foreign currency ratings to 163 sovereigns since 1975. Much of the expansion in the number of rated sovereigns occurred between 1988 and 2011, when the tally grew by 104. Given the relatively small and static number of nations in the world, another such increase is unlikely. For that reason, the distribution of sovereign ratings will change almost exclusively with the movement of existing ratings.

As the number of rated sovereigns has grown, so too has the share of speculative-grade ratings. The distribution of sovereign ratings at the lower end of the spectrum has been growing since the late 1980s as countries with smaller and less diversified economies have sought credit ratings. By the end of 2022, 46% of sovereign foreign currency ratings were speculative grade, up from just 3% at the end of 1989 (see chart 12).

Rated sovereigns have recorded at least one default annually for 10 consecutive years, and the increase in defaults, in part, reflects the growing share of speculative-grade ratings as a percentage of sovereign ratings. From 2010-2022, three sovereigns defaulted per year on average, up from 1.8 from 1999-2009. Over this period, the number of speculative-grade sovereigns grew to a peak of 65 in 2016, from 31 in 1999.

Alongside the growth in speculative-grade ratings, the number of sovereigns rated in the lowest rating levels, 'CCC' or lower, remained at eight for the third consecutive year. This pool of sovereigns rated in the highest-risk rating category suggests defaults could remain elevated in the coming years.

As of year-end 2022, 16 local currency sovereign credit ratings were higher than the corresponding foreign currency credit ratings. For example, New Zealand, with a long-term local currency rating of 'AAA' and a long-term foreign currency rating of 'AA+' (see table 3).

Additionally, when a sovereign's foreign currency rating is in default or indicates a near-term risk of default, a sovereign's local currency rating can be several notches higher if we expect the sovereign not to default on its local currency obligations. While Sri Lanka was rated 'SD' in April 2022, its local currency ratings remained in the 'CCC/CC' rating category.

Table 3

Sovereigns with different foreign-currency and local-currency ratings as of Dec. 31, 2022
Country	Foreign-currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)	Local-currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)
Argentina	CCC+/Negative/C	CCC-/Negative/C
Belarus	SD/--/SD	CCC/Negative/C
Chile	A/Stable/A-1	A+/Stable/A-1
Colombia	BB+/Stable/B	BBB-/Stable/A-3
Czech Republic	AA-/Stable/A-1+	AA/Stable/A-1+
Ghana	SD/--/SD	SD/--/C
Guatemala	BB-/Positive/B	BB/Positive/B
Lebanon	SD/--/SD	CC/Negative/C
Malaysia	A-/Stable/A-2	A/Stable/A-1
Mexico	BBB/Stable/A-2	BBB+/Stable/A-2
Mozambique	CCC+/Stable/C	B-/Stable/B
New Zealand	AA+/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Peru	BBB/Negative/A-2	BBB+/Negative/A-2
Poland	A-/Stable/A-2	A/Stable/A-1
South Africa	BB-/Positive/B	BB/Positive/B
Sri Lanka	SD/--/SD	CCC-/Negative/C
Thailand	BBB+/Stable/A-2	A-/Stable/A-2
Zambia	SD/--/SD	CCC+/Stable/C
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereign Foreign Currency Rating Transition Rates

An analysis of transition rates for sovereigns shows that higher ratings are inversely related to the observed frequency of default. Furthermore, investment-grade-rated sovereigns tend to exhibit greater ratings stability (as measured by the frequency of rating transitions) than those rated speculative grade.

From 1975-2022, on average, 96.88% of sovereigns that were rated 'AAA' maintained that rating over a one-year horizon. Over a longer period, ratings tend to show higher rates of transition. For example, the stability rate for 'AAA' decreases over longer horizons, yet remains elevated--at 90.8% over three years, 84.8% over five years, 72.2% over 10 years, and 66.7% over 15 years (see tables 4-8).

Despite higher rates of transition over longer horizons, very few of those 'AAA' rated sovereigns that transitioned over a 15-year period had ratings that fell below the 'AA' category. On average, 28.3% of sovereigns rated 'AAA' transitioned to the 'AA' category over a 15-year horizon. Over the same period, less than 1.5% of 'AAA' sovereigns migrated to speculative grade, and none transitioned to 'SD'.

On the other hand, while from 1975-2022 on average 87% of sovereigns rated 'BB' maintained their rating over a one-year horizon, only 23% did not transition to another rating category over 15 years. Over that period, 'BB' rated sovereign credit rating quality improved in 43% of cases, worsened in 34%, and 15% defaulted.

Table 4

Sovereign foreign-currency average one-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Ratings one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.88	3.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	2.00	93.99	2.81	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.60
A	0.00	3.75	90.83	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.27	90.54	4.45	0.37	0.19	0.19	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.71	86.92	5.71	0.74	0.37	0.55
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.43	87.70	3.72	2.72	1.43
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.75	43.75	34.38	3.13
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 5

Sovereign foreign-currency average three-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Ratings three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.78	8.36	0.17	0.17	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17
AA	6.36	83.11	7.24	1.54	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.32
A	0.00	10.94	73.66	12.95	1.12	0.22	0.45	0.22	0.45
BBB	0.00	0.00	13.61	72.37	10.93	1.24	0.21	1.24	0.41
BB	0.00	0.00	0.20	16.73	65.55	14.17	0.39	1.97	0.98
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.32	10.74	70.19	4.97	10.10	3.69
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.83	18.75	54.17	6.25
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 6

Sovereign foreign-currency average five-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Ratings five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.75	13.12	0.18	0.89	0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35
AA	11.30	72.60	12.26	1.68	0.72	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.44
A	0.00	18.00	57.42	19.71	2.43	0.24	0.49	1.22	0.49
BBB	0.00	0.00	21.06	58.33	14.58	2.78	0.23	2.08	0.93
BB	0.00	0.00	1.48	21.99	53.07	16.91	0.85	4.23	1.48
B	0.00	0.00	0.18	2.21	13.24	59.01	4.60	15.63	5.15
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	14.29	9.52	59.52	11.90
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 7

Sovereign foreign-currency average 10-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.17	22.86	1.19	1.39	0.60	0.40	0.00	0.00	1.39
AA	22.33	54.09	16.35	4.72	1.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63
A	1.53	23.55	40.06	22.02	5.20	1.83	0.61	4.59	0.61
BBB	0.00	3.92	27.45	40.20	16.34	3.27	0.33	5.56	2.94
BB	0.00	0.00	4.38	31.23	31.51	18.63	0.82	11.23	2.19
B	0.00	0.00	0.28	4.42	20.17	41.71	2.49	25.14	5.80
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.33	13.33	0.00	66.67	16.67
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 8

Sovereign foreign-currency average 15-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Ratings 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	66.67	28.30	1.92	0.00	0.48	0.72	0.00	0.00	1.92
AA	30.33	40.16	13.93	12.70	2.05	0.41	0.41	0.00	0.00
A	3.40	27.23	38.30	14.04	2.98	5.11	0.43	8.51	0.00
BBB	0.00	9.45	30.85	28.86	13.93	2.99	0.50	8.46	4.98
BB	0.00	0.00	4.03	39.52	22.58	17.34	0.40	15.32	0.81
B	0.00	0.00	0.48	9.13	17.31	34.62	2.40	33.65	2.40
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	0.00	8.70	0.00	65.22	21.74
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Another gauge of ratings stability is the average time a sovereign spends at a particular rating. Table 9 shows the average number of years that a particular rating had been effective as of Dec. 31, 2022. 'AAA' ratings are much more stable than any other rating category. The 11 'AAA' sovereigns have averaged nearly 27 years at that rating level. The average number of years that each issuer has been at its current rating level tends to be higher for issuers in the higher rating categories.

One exception to this relative measure of stability is found in the 'BB' category: Sovereigns in the 'BB' category have spent less time at this rating than 'B' category sovereigns have spent at 'B'. In part, this reflects recent additions to the 'BB' category, such as Ivory Coast (which was assigned its first rating of 'BB-' in July 2021) and Morocco and Colombia (downgraded to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' in April and May 2021, respectively).

Table 9

Average time spent at current rating as of Dec. 31, 2022
Rating category	Average years	Issuer count
AAA	26.50	11
AA	7.00	21
A	5.15	17
BBB	4.99	25
BB	3.75	20
B	3.90	35
CCC/C	1.32	8
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereign Local Currency Rating Actions And Transitions

In 2022, the number of negative local currency rating actions, including downgrades and defaults, declined by one to 11--a marked decline since the 2020 peak of 28 (see chart 14). Thus, the local currency downgrades to upgrades ratio declined to 0.71 in 2022 from 8.67 in 2020 (see table 10).

Table 10

Summary of sovereign net annual local-currency rating changes (%)
Year	Issuers as of Jan. 1	Upgrades	Downgrades	Defaults	Withdrawn ratings	Changed ratings	Unchanged ratings	Downgrade/upgrade ratio
1993	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1994	23	0.00	4.35	0.00	0.00	4.35	95.65	N/A
1995	26	3.85	3.85	0.00	0.00	7.69	92.31	1.00
1996	33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	n/a
1997	50	8.00	6.00	0.00	0.00	14.00	86.00	0.75
1998	64	3.13	28.13	0.00	0.00	31.25	68.75	9.00
1999	71	7.04	8.45	1.41	0.00	16.90	83.10	1.20
2000	80	11.25	6.25	1.25	0.00	18.75	81.25	0.56
2001	84	15.48	14.29	1.19	0.00	30.95	69.05	0.92
2002	88	9.09	15.91	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	1.75
2003	91	14.29	13.19	0.00	1.10	28.57	71.43	0.92
2004	97	17.53	10.31	1.03	0.00	28.87	71.13	0.59
2005	107	13.08	4.67	0.93	0.00	18.69	81.31	0.36
2006	112	13.39	3.57	0.89	1.79	19.64	80.36	0.27
2007	113	20.35	2.65	0.00	0.88	23.89	76.11	0.13
2008	119	6.72	13.45	0.84	0.84	21.85	78.15	2.00
2009	124	1.61	18.55	0.00	2.42	22.58	77.42	11.50
2010	125	14.40	12.00	0.80	0.00	27.20	72.80	0.83
2011	128	10.16	30.47	0.00	1.56	42.19	57.81	3.00
2012	129	6.98	18.60	0.78	0.00	26.36	73.64	2.67
2013	131	4.58	13.74	2.29	2.29	22.90	77.10	3.00
2014	132	8.33	13.64	0.00	1.52	23.48	76.52	1.64
2015	134	11.19	17.16	0.00	0.00	28.36	71.64	1.53
2016	137	7.30	18.25	0.00	1.46	27.01	72.99	2.50
2017	137	10.22	13.87	0.73	2.19	27.01	72.99	1.36
2018	135	9.63	7.41	0.74	0.00	17.78	82.22	0.77
2019	137	13.14	4.38	0.73	0.00	18.25	81.75	0.33
2020	140	2.14	18.57	1.43	0.00	22.14	77.86	8.67
2021	141	4.26	7.80	0.71	0.71	13.48	86.52	1.83
2022	142	9.86	7.04	0.70	1.41	19.01	80.99	0.71
Weighted average		9.32	12.37	0.62	0.75	23.06	76.94	2.23
Median		8.71	11.15	0.71	0.00	22.36	77.64	1.20
Std. Dev.		5.34	7.53	0.60	0.83	9.28	9.28	2.86
Minimum		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	57.81	0.13
Maximum		20.35	30.47	2.29	2.42	42.19	100.00	11.50
This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. Excludes downgrades to 'SD,' shown separately in the default column. Descriptive statistics at the bottom of the table based on data from 1993-2022. Std. Dev.--Standard deviation. N/A--Not applicable. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®.

The average number of notches of local currency downgrades (excluding defaults) increased to 1.70 in 2022, from 1.18 in 2021.

Similarly, the average notch change of a local currency upgrade in 2022 also increased to 1.21, from 1 in 2021 (see chart 15).

Table 11

Sovereign local-currency average one-year transition rates (1993-2022)
(%)	--Ratings one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.24	3.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.39	92.34	5.10	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.70
A	0.00	2.78	90.28	6.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.40
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.01	89.24	5.49	0.84	0.21	0.00	0.21
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.77	85.68	7.50	0.91	0.45	0.68
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.47	88.04	4.31	1.44	1.75
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.37	58.21	11.94	4.48
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 12

Sovereign local-currency average five-year transition rates (1993-2022)
(%)	--Ratings five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	81.74	16.52	0.22	1.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43
AA	6.07	65.90	22.54	3.18	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.73
A	0.00	14.02	58.88	20.09	3.97	0.23	0.47	1.17	1.17
BBB	0.00	0.00	16.76	55.32	19.68	5.85	0.27	1.60	0.53
BB	0.00	0.00	1.36	20.44	46.87	25.07	1.91	2.45	1.91
B	0.00	0.00	0.21	1.91	15.29	60.93	8.70	6.37	6.58
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.50	2.50	37.50	10.00	30.00	17.50
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 13

Sovereign local-currency average 15-year transition rates (1993-2022)
(%)	--Ratings 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	64.84	26.45	4.19	1.61	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.58
AA	1.83	37.20	31.10	21.34	2.44	1.83	1.22	3.05	0.00
A	2.22	21.33	34.22	12.00	9.78	6.22	0.00	9.33	4.89
BBB	0.00	2.48	18.63	44.10	21.12	9.94	0.00	3.73	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	5.84	24.03	27.92	25.97	4.55	9.09	2.60
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.56	16.90	45.77	6.34	15.49	4.93
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	15.00	15.00	5.00	35.00	25.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Historical Sovereign Default Rates

Over our rating history, 28 sovereigns with a public foreign or local currency rating have defaulted up to 2022, and half of these have defaulted multiple times. In 2022, Russia recorded its second foreign currency default, after one in 1999.

Included among the foreign currency defaults of past years are some sovereign members of monetary unions such as Greece and Cyprus within the eurozone (see table 14). In S&P Global Ratings' sovereign rating criteria, defaults of sovereign members of a monetary union are counted as foreign currency defaults because the individual country has no sovereign control over the common currency. In line with this reasoning, the local currency ratings on eurozone sovereigns converged with the (often lower) foreign currency ratings when they joined the union.

Table 14

Sovereign foreign-currency selective defaults
Country	Selective default date	Emergence date	Time in selective default	Rating one year before selective default	Rating three years before selective default
Russia, first default	Jan. 27, 1999	Dec. 8, 2000	22 months	BB-	-
Pakistan	Jan. 29, 1999	Dec. 21, 1999	11 months	B+	B+
Indonesia, first default	Mar. 29, 1999	Mar. 30, 1999	One day	B-	BBB
Indonesia, second default§	Apr. 17, 2000	Oct. 2, 2000	Six months	CCC+	BBB
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Jun. 01, 2005	54 months	BB	BB
Indonesia, third default	Apr. 22, 2002	Sep. 5, 2002	Four months	B-	CCC+
Paraguay	Feb. 13, 2003	Jul. 26, 2004	18 months	B	B
Uruguay	May 16, 2003	Jun. 02, 2003	One month	BB-	BBB-
Grenada, first default	Dec. 30, 2004	Nov. 18, 2005	11 months	BB-	-
Venezuela, first default	Jan. 18, 2005	Mar. 03, 2005	One month	B-	B
Dominican Republic	Feb. 1, 2005	Jun. 29, 2005	Five months	CCC	BB-
Belize, first default	Dec. 7, 2006	Feb. 20, 2007	Three months	CCC-	B+
Seychelles*	Aug. 7, 2008	-	-	B	-
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Jun. 15, 2009	Six months	B-	CCC+
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Feb. 24, 2010	One month	B	B
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	May. 2, 2012	Two months	BB+	A-
Mali	Mar. 31, 2012	-	-	-	-
Belize, second default	Aug. 21, 2012	Mar. 20, 2013	Seven months	B-	B
Grenada, second default	Oct. 8, 2012	Oct. 16, 2012	One week	B-	B-
Greece, second default	Dec. 5, 2012	Dec. 18, 2012	Two weeks	CC	A-
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Mar. 06, 2013	22 days	B-	SD
Grenada*, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	-	-	B-	B-
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Jul. 03, 2013	Five days	BB+	A+
Argentina, second default	Jul. 30, 2014	May 06, 2016	22 months	B-	B
Ukraine, first default	Sep. 25, 2015	Oct. 19, 2015	One month	CCC	B+
Mozambique, first default	Apr. 01, 2016	April 15, 2016	15 days	B	B+
Congo-Brazzaville, first default	Aug. 02, 2016	Aug. 09, 2016	One week	B	-
Mozambique, second default	Jan. 18, 2017	Nov. 22, 2019	34 months	B-	B+
Belize, third default	Mar. 17, 2017	Mar. 23, 2017	Six days	B-	B-
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	May 5, 2017	15 days	B+	BB-
Congo-Brazzaville, second default	Aug. 01, 2017	Sept. 5, 2015	One month	B-	B+
El Salvador, second default	Oct. 02, 2017	Oct. 03, 2017	One day	B+	BB-
Venezuela, second default	Nov. 13, 2017	-	-	CCC	CCC+
Barbados	Jun. 06, 2018	Dec. 11, 2019	Eighteen months	CCC+	B
Argentina, third default	Aug. 29, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	One day	B+	B-
Argentina, fourth default§	Dec. 20, 2019	Dec. 30, 2019	Ten days	B	B-
Lebanon	Mar. 11, 2020	-	-	B-	B-
Argentina, fifth default	Apr. 07, 2020	Sep. 07, 2020	Five months	B	B
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Sep. 01, 2020	Four months	B-	B
Suriname, first default	Jul. 13, 2020	Jul. 16, 2020	Three days	B	B
Belize, fourth default	Aug. 12, 2020	Aug. 21, 2020	Nine days	B-	B-
Zambia	Oct. 21, 2020	-	-	CCC+	B
Suriname, second default	Nov. 06, 2020	-	-	B	B
Belize, fifth default	May 24, 2021	Nov. 09, 2021	Five months	CCC	B-
Russia, second default	Apr. 08, 2022	-	-	BBB-	BBB-
Sri Lanka	Apr. 25, 2022	-	-	CCC+	B
Belarus	Aug. 03, 2022	-	-	B	B
Ukraine, second default	Aug. 12, 2022	Aug. 19, 2022	Seven days	B	B-
Ghana	Dec. 20, 2022	-	-	B-	B
Includes sovereigns which were not rated at the time of default. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew its rating in 2008. *The rating on Seychelles was withdrawn while it was still in default. The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 15

Sovereign local-currency selective defaults
Country	Selective default date	Emergence date	Time in selective default	Rating one year before selective default	Rating three years before selective default
Dominican Republic	Apr. 9, 1999	Jun. 12, 2001	26 months	BB	-
Suriname, first default	Jan. 1, 2000	Feb. 2, 2001	13 months	-	-
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Jun. 1, 2005	43 months	BBB-	BBB-
Cameroon	Sep. 1, 2004	Dec. 3, 2004	Three months	-	-
Grenada, first default	Jan. 1, 2005	Nov. 18, 2005	11 months	BB-	-
Grenada, second default§	Dec. 1, 2006	Apr. 2, 2007	Four months	B-	BB-
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Jun. 15, 2009	Six months	B-	CCC+
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Feb. 24, 2010	One month	B	B
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	May. 2, 2012	Two months	BB+	A-
Greece, second default§	Dec. 5, 2012	Dec. 18, 2012	Two weeks	CC	A-
Mali	Dec. 31, 2012	-	-	-	-
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Mar. 06, 2013	22 days	B-	B-
Grenada*, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	-	-	B-	B-
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	July 3, 2013	Five days	BB+	A+
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	May 5, 2017	15 days	B+	BB-
El Salvador, second default§	Oct. 02, 2017	Oct. 03, 2017	One day	B+	BB-
Barbados	Aug. 7, 2018	Nov. 16, 2018	Three months	CCC+	B
Argentina, second default	Aug. 29, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	One day	B+	B-
Argentina, third default	Jan. 21, 2020	Sep. 07, 2020	Eight months	B	B-
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Sep. 01, 2020	Four months	B-	B
Suriname, second default	Jun. 03, 2021	-	-	CCC+	B
Ghana	Dec. 06, 2022	-	-	B-	B
Includes sovereigns which were not rated at the time of default. Cameroon and Grenada (excluding the third default) cured their local currency defaults before the ratings were changed. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew its rating in 2008. *The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

During 1975-2022, no sovereign that was rated 'AAA' at the beginning of a year defaulted within the ensuing 15 years. Moreover, the cumulative default rates were generally higher at lower rating levels, as one would expect. For example, from 1975-2022, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'A' category was only about 1.2%. By comparison, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'BBB' category was 2.7%; the 'BB' category, 4.0%; the 'B' category, 17.3%; and the 'CCC'/'CC' categories, 54.1%.

The 15-year cumulative default rate averaged 3.8% for sovereigns with investment-grade ratings and 30.7% for sovereigns with speculative-grade ratings. The same trends are generally true when calculating default rates disaggregated by rating category and confirm the non-linearity of the rating scale: the difference between the 15-year cumulative default rate of the 'A' category and the 'BBB' category is significantly lower than the difference between the 'BB' and 'B' categories.

Lower ratings by rating category generally exhibit higher default rates over each time span (for example, as in the one- to 10-year time horizons shown in table 16). While this largely holds true, some exceptions occur, such as when the number of defaults is low or when the underlying population of issuers is very small--such as at the rating modifier level.

One exception is seen in the cumulative default rates for sovereign local currency ratings in the 'A' and 'BBB' categories over the eight- to 15-year horizon (see table 17). The 'A' category includes defaults of Greece, Cyprus, and Barbados, as these issuers had previously been rated in the 'A' category. While the cumulative default rates for the 'A' and 'BBB' categories have declined in recent years, these defaults continue to have an outsize impact on the relatively small sample of 'A' issuers. (For more detail on the cumulative default rates at the rating modifier level, please see table 58).

Table 16

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5	Y6	Y7	Y8	Y9	Y10	Y11	Y12	Y13	Y14	Y15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.69	1.17	1.68	2.22	2.78	3.38	3.99	4.63	5.31	6.04	6.44	7.30
BBB	0.19	0.77	1.59	2.24	2.70	3.19	3.71	4.27	4.87	5.52	6.23	7.01	7.85	9.20	10.18
BB	0.37	1.32	1.91	2.52	4.01	5.56	7.19	8.90	10.19	11.02	11.61	12.24	12.92	13.67	14.08
B	2.72	6.65	10.48	14.03	17.27	20.14	23.20	26.06	28.43	30.73	33.22	35.62	37.63	39.85	42.36
CCC/CC	34.38	41.88	48.85	51.41	54.11	60.66	63.94	63.94	63.94	63.94	67.55	67.55	67.55	67.55	67.55
Investment grade	0.05	0.19	0.45	0.71	0.93	1.16	1.39	1.64	1.91	2.18	2.47	2.78	3.10	3.44	3.80
Speculative grade	3.29	6.11	8.64	10.86	13.29	15.65	18.05	20.27	22.05	23.56	25.19	26.66	27.94	29.34	30.70
All rated	1.28	2.44	3.54	4.53	5.57	6.58	7.60	8.56	9.35	10.06	10.82	11.51	12.15	12.83	13.51
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Generally, the cumulative default rates by rating category have been higher for foreign currency sovereign credit ratings than for local currency sovereign credit ratings (see tables 16 and 17). As our "Sovereign Rating Methodology" explains, we consider that--other things being equal--the probability of default on a sovereign's local currency obligation could be lower than on a foreign currency obligation. Furthermore, the local currency sovereign default rates could also be understated because it is hard to detect forced rollovers of domestic bank debt or coerced exchanges of local law, local currency debt when domestic financial institutions hold the debt.

Table 17

Sovereign local-currency cumulative average default rate without rating modifiers (1993-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5	Y6	Y7	Y8	Y9	Y10	Y11	Y12	Y13	Y14	Y15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.45	0.93	1.46	2.02	2.63
A	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.66	1.13	1.62	2.14	2.69	3.28	4.20	4.84	5.53	6.28	7.10	8.00
BBB	0.00	0.45	0.92	1.17	1.44	1.72	2.32	2.65	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
BB	0.45	1.17	1.41	1.67	2.22	3.08	3.70	4.68	5.73	6.48	7.30	8.20	9.21	10.34	10.98
B	1.44	2.96	4.59	5.76	7.02	8.17	9.41	10.80	11.71	13.08	14.23	15.10	16.09	17.23	18.59
CCC/CC	11.94	13.70	15.91	20.86	26.14	32.05	35.28	35.28	35.28	35.28	39.60	39.60	39.60	39.60	39.60
Investment grade	0.00	0.11	0.28	0.46	0.64	0.84	1.11	1.33	1.56	1.80	2.06	2.34	2.64	2.96	3.31
Speculative grade	1.68	2.89	3.99	4.95	6.08	7.30	8.35	9.50	10.43	11.45	12.59	13.43	14.37	15.43	16.35
All rated	0.62	1.14	1.65	2.10	2.62	3.18	3.72	4.24	4.70	5.20	5.73	6.18	6.66	7.19	7.70
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereigns that approach default usually experience multiple successive downgrades as the likelihood of default increases. Table 18 shows the last date of the highest rating, the number of intermediate rating actions (excluding outlook revisions) before default, and the date of the sovereign's default.

Table 18

Length of time to default
Foreign-currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Government	Date of default	Date of initial rating	Highest rating before default	Last date of highest rating	Number of intermediate rating actions
Russia	Jan. 27, 1999	Oct. 07, 1996	BB-	Jun. 8, 1998	4
Pakistan	Jan. 29, 1999	Nov. 21, 1994	B+	May. 31, 1998	4
Indonesia, first default	Mar. 29, 1999	Jul. 20, 1992	BBB	Oct. 9, 1997	7
Indonesia, second default§	Apr. 17, 2000	Mar. 30, 1999	CCC+	Apr. 16, 2000	0
Argentina, first default	Nov. 06, 2001	Aug. 25, 1993	BB	Nov. 13, 2000	7
Indonesia, third default	Apr. 22, 2001	Oct. 02, 2000	B-	May. 20, 2001	2
Paraguay	Feb. 13, 2003	Oct. 23, 1995	BB-	Feb. 3, 1999	3
Uruguay	May. 16, 2003	Feb. 14, 1994	BBB-	Feb. 13, 2002	7
Grenada, first default	Dec. 30, 2004	Mar. 22, 2002	BB-	Sep. 16, 2004	2
Venezuela, first default	Jan. 18, 2005	Oct. 05, 1977	AAA	Aug. 12, 1982	14
Dominican Republic	Feb. 01, 2005	Feb. 13, 1997	BB-	Jun. 9, 2003	5
Belize, first default	Dec. 07, 2006	Aug. 22, 2000	BB	Oct. 22, 2001	7
Seychelles*	Aug. 07, 2008	Sep. 14, 2006	B	July. 31, 2008	1
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Aug. 25, 2000	B-	Nov. 13, 2008	7
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Nov. 09, 1999	B+	Jul. 27, 2003	5
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	Sep. 09, 1988	A+	Nov. 16, 2004	13
Mali	Mar. 31, 2012	May. 05, 2004	B	Jul. 02, 2008	0
Belize, second default	Aug. 21, 2012	Feb. 20, 2007	B	Aug. 3, 2011	4
Grenada, second default	Oct. 08, 2012	Nov. 18, 2005	B-	Oct. 7, 2012	2
Greece, second default	Dec. 05, 2012	May. 02, 2012	CCC	Dec. 4, 2012	0
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Feb. 24, 2010	B-	Feb. 11, 2013	0
Grenada*, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	Oct. 16, 2012	CCC+	Mar. 11, 2013	0
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Feb. 14, 1994	AA-	Nov. 8, 1998	12
Argentina, second default	Jul. 30, 2014	Jun. 01, 2005	B+	Aug. 10, 2008	8
Ukraine, first default	Sep. 25, 2015	Dec. 21, 2001	BB-	Jun. 11, 2008	14
Mozambique, first default	Apr. 01, 2016	Jul. 07, 2004	B+	Feb. 13, 2014	4
Congo-Brazzaville, first default	Aug. 02, 2016	Oct. 22, 2013	B+	Feb. 8, 2015	2
Mozambique, second default	Jan. 18, 2017	Apr. 15, 2016	B-	May. 26, 2016	2
Belize, third default	Mar. 17, 2017	Mar. 20, 2013	B-	Nov. 13, 2016	2
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	Aug. 26, 1996	BB+	May. 11, 2009	7
Congo-Brazzaville, second default	Aug. 01, 2017	Aug. 09, 2016	B-	Jul. 6, 2017	1
El Salvador, second default	Oct. 02, 2017	May. 05, 2017	CC	Oct. 1, 2017	0
Venezuela*, second default	Nov. 13, 2017	Mar. 03, 2005	BB-	Aug. 18, 2011	9
Barbados	Jun. 06, 2018	Dec. 17, 1999	A-	Aug. 4, 2004	9
Argentina, third default	Aug. 29, 2019	May. 06, 2016	B+	Oct. 30, 2017	4
Argentina, fourth default§	Dec. 20, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	CCC-	Dec. 19, 2019	0
Lebanon	Mar. 11, 2020	Feb. 26, 1997	BB-	Feb. 04, 1998	9
Argentina, fifth default	Apr. 07, 2020	Dec. 30, 2019	CCC-	Apr. 06, 2020	1
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Jun. 15, 2009	B+	Aug. 11, 2015	6
Suriname, first default	Jul. 13, 2020	Nov. 23, 1999	BB-	Apr. 27, 2014	6
Belize, fourth default	Aug. 12, 2020	Mar. 23, 2017	B-	Apr. 15, 2020	2
Zambia	Oct. 21, 2020	Mar. 22, 2011	B+	Oct. 24, 2013	5
Suriname, second default	Nov. 06, 2020	Jul. 16, 2020	CCC	Nov. 05, 2020	0
Belize, fifth default	May. 24, 2021	Aug. 21, 2020	CCC+	Feb. 24, 2021	1
Russia, second default	Apr. 08, 2022	Dec. 08, 2000	BBB+	Dec. 07, 2008	15
Sri Lanka	Apr. 25, 2022	Dec. 08, 2005	B+	Feb. 28, 2018	7
Belarus	Aug. 03, 2022	Aug. 21, 2007	B+	Mar. 14, 2011	5
Ukraine, second default	Aug. 12, 2022	Oct. 19, 2015	B	Feb. 24, 2022	4
Ghana	Dec. 20, 2022	Sep. 04, 2003	B+	Aug. 26, 2010	6
Local-currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Government	Date of default	Date of initial rating	Highest rating before default	Last date of highest rating	Number of intermediate rating actions
Dominican Republic	Apr. 9, 1999	Nov. 12, 1997	BB	Apr. 8, 1999	0
Suriname, first default	Jan. 1, 2000	Nov. 23, 1999	B	Dec. 31, 1999	0
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Sep. 01, 1994	BBB-	Nov. 13, 2000	6
Cameroon	Sep. 1, 2004	Nov. 26, 2003	B	Aug. 31, 2004	0
Grenada, first default	Jan. 1, 2005	Mar. 22, 2002	BB-	Sep. 16, 2004	3
Grenada, second default§	Dec. 1, 2006	Nov. 18, 2005	B-	Nov. 30, 2006	0
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Aug. 25, 2000	B-	Nov. 13, 2008	6
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Nov. 09, 1999	BB-	Jul. 27, 2003	6
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	Mar. 26, 1997	A+	Nov. 16, 2004	10
Greece, second default§	Dec. 5, 2012	May. 02, 2012	CCC	Dec. 4, 2012	0
Mali	Dec. 31, 2012	May. 05, 2004	B	Jul. 02, 2008	0
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Feb. 24, 2010	B-	Feb. 11, 2013	0
Grenada*, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	Apr. 02, 2007	B-	Oct. 7, 2012	2
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Jul. 16, 1996	AA+	Nov. 8, 1998	14
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	Aug. 26, 1996	BBB+	Jan. 22, 2001	7
El Salvador, second default§	Oct. 2, 2017	May. 05, 2017	CC	Oct. 1, 2017	0
Barbados	Aug. 7, 2018	Dec. 17, 1999	AA-	Aug. 19, 2003	11
Argentina, second default	Aug. 29, 2019	Jun. 01, 2005	B+	Oct. 30, 2017	12
Argentina, third default	Jan. 21, 2020	Aug. 30, 2019	CCC-	Jan. 20, 2020	2
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Jun. 15, 2009	B+	Aug. 11, 2015	6
Suriname, second default	Jun. 03, 2021	Feb. 02, 2001	BB	Apr. 27, 2014	8
Ghana	Dec. 06, 2022	Sep. 04, 2003	B+	Mar. 15, 2009	5
Includes sovereigns which were not rated at the time of default. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew its rating in 2008. *The rating on Seychelles was withdrawn while it was still in default. The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. Cameroon and Grenada (excluding the third default) cured their local currency defaults before the ratings were changed. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

On average, for those sovereigns that eventually default, there is a correlation between the initial rating and the time to default--the higher the rating, the longer the time to default. For example, for the entire pool of sovereign defaults (1975-2022), the average times to default for issuers that were originally rated in the 'AA' and 'BBB' categories were 19.37 years and 15.08 years, respectively, from the initial ratings, whereas issuers in the 'B' rating category had an average time to default of only 8.48 years.

Tables 19 and 20 display the medians, averages, and standard deviations for the time to default from the original rating for foreign and local currency ratings. Note that when an issuer emerges from a default (including selective default), we treat it as a new entity with a newly assigned initial rating.

Tables 21 and 22 present the average and median times to default from the date that each entity received each unique rating in its path to default, excluding the original rating.

Generally speaking, the average time to default for each rating category is longer when based on the initial rating on a sovereign as compared to post-original ratings.

Table 19

Time to default from original rating for foreign-currency ratings (years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	27.29	27.29	-	1
AA	19.37	19.37	-	1
A	18.47	18.47	-	1
BBB	15.08	15.08	11.86	2
BB	9.98	7.75	7.74	8
B	8.48	7.90	6.11	27
CCC/CC	1.53	0.41	3.28	10
Total	8.39	6.85	7.54	50
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 20

Time to default from original rating for local-currency ratings (years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	-
AA	17.79	17.79	1.19	2
A	14.92	14.92	-	1
BBB	13.92	13.92	9.52	2
BB	2.09	2.09	0.97	2
B	8.59	8.48	7.51	10
CCC/CC	3.09	0.50	4.39	6
Total	8.13	7.18	7.46	23
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 21

Time to default from post-original ratings for foreign-currency ratings (years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	0
AA	22.43	22.43	-	1
A	9.32	8.72	6.10	1
BBB	9.23	7.95	6.38	4
BB	7.44	5.50	6.80	4
B	5.20	3.88	5.04	21
CCC/CC	1.00	0.34	1.91	10
NR	3.74	3.74	-	1
Total	4.68	2.13	5.59	42
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 22

Time to default from post-original ratings for local-currency ratings (years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	0
AA	14.10	14.10	0.75	1
A	7.96	8.57	4.38	2
BBB	4.55	2.20	3.62	0
BB	5.80	5.38	5.13	3
B	4.63	3.63	4.23	6
CCC/CC	1.07	0.44	1.84	2
NR	4.50	4.50	-	1
Total	4.35	2.29	4.53	15
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Appendix 1: Gini Ratios

In addition to examining the absolute performance of ratings, we examine their relative performance. We utilize the Lorenz curve, a graphical representation of the proportionality of a distribution, as one measure of relative ratings performance, and we summarize this via the Gini coefficient. For this study, the Lorenz curve is plotted with the x-axis showing the cumulative share of issuers, arranged by rating, while the y-axis represents the cumulative share of defaulters, also arranged by rating. For both axes of the Lorenz curve, the observations are ordered from the low end of the ratings scale ('CCC'/'CC') to the high end ('AAA').

As an example, if 'CCC'/'CC' rated entities made up 10% of the total population of issuers at the start of the time frame examined (x-axis) and 50% of the defaulters (y-axis), then the coordinate (10, 50) would be the first point on the curve. If S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings only randomly approximated default risk, the Lorenz curve would fall along the diagonal. Its Gini coefficient--which is a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--would thus be zero. If the ratings were perfectly rank ordered so that all defaults occurred only among the lowest-rated entities, the curve would capture all of the area above the diagonal on the graph (the ideal curve), and the Gini coefficient would be 1.

Lorenz curves for foreign currency and local currency sovereign credit ratings resemble the ideal Lorenz curves, though the small sample size results in less accurate readings than in larger sectors. A larger number of data points would register a smooth line that curves as in chart 17. Many of the other charts show lines that take sharp turns, resulting in angles rather than curves.

Chart 16 shows the one-year Lorenz curve for sovereign foreign currency ratings, and table 23 provides each rating's coordinate. The first point indicates that sovereigns rated 'CCC+' and lower accounted for 1.86% of ratings and 50% of defaults over a one-year horizon. Sovereigns rated 'B+' and lower accounted for 22.2% of sovereign ratings and yet around 93% of defaults. Because there are no defaults at any rating level higher than 'BBB-' over a one-year horizon, the chart shows a strong relationship between speculative-grade ratings and defaults. Fewer defaults come from the higher-rated cohorts of sovereigns.

Table 23

Sovereign one-year Lorenz curve values
(%)	Y-axis: cumulative proportion of defaults	X-axis: cumulative proportion of ratings
AAA	100.00	100.00
AA+	100.00	82.28
AA	100.00	77.48
AA-	100.00	72.52
A+	100.00	67.74
A	100.00	63.90
A-	100.00	58.60
BBB+	100.00	53.76
BBB	100.00	49.56
BBB-	100.00	44.67
BB+	97.73	38.05
BB	97.73	33.80
BB-	97.73	28.55
B+	93.18	22.23
B	93.18	14.36
B-	77.27	6.91
CCC/CC	50.00	1.86
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Over the one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, weighted average Gini coefficients for foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are higher than those of local currency ratings. Foreign currency and local currency Gini coefficients are based on two separate datasets. Foreign currency ratings present a larger sample, with ratings over a longer time horizon and more defaults. As the rating history for local currency ratings begins in 1993, credit events such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012 have a higher weighting within the shorter sample period of local currency ratings (see charts 20-23).

Appendix 2: Regional Ratings Distribution And Rating Actions

Regional ratings distribution

For this report, we segment most of the sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings into five regional categories:

• Middle East and Africa (including North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa)

• Latin America (including the Caribbean)

• Asia-Pacific

• Eurozone

• Central and Eastern Europe and CIS--the former Soviet republics

In this study, we also include a broad designation for emerging and frontier markets, consisting of 103 sovereigns (currently and formerly rated), which come from all of the above categories except the eurozone (see table 24).

Table 24

Sovereigns by region
Middle East and Africa	Latin America	Central and Eastern Europe and Commonwealth of Independent States*	Asia-Pacific	Eurozone	Emerging and frontier markets
Abu Dhabi	Argentina	Albania	Australia	Austria	Abu Dhabi	Ethiopia	Papua New Guinea
Angola	Aruba	Armenia	Bangladesh	Belgium	Albania	Fiji	Paraguay
Bahrain	Bahamas	Azerbaijan	Cambodia	Cyprus	Angola	Gabon	Peru
Benin	Barbados	Belarus	China	Estonia§	Argentina	Georgia	Philippines
Botswana	Belize	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Cook Islands	Finland	Armenia	Ghana	Poland
Burkina Faso	Bermuda	Bulgaria	Fiji	France	Aruba	Grenada	Qatar
Cameroon	Bolivia	Croatia	Hong Kong	Germany	Azerbaijan	Guatemala	Ras Al Kaimah
Cape Verde	Brazil	Czech Republic	India	Greece	Bahamas	Honduras	Romania
Congo	Chile	Estonia§	Indonesia	Ireland	Bahrain	Hong Kong	Russia
Congo, D.R.	Colombia	Georgia	Japan	Italy	Bangladesh	Hungary	Rwanda
Egypt	Costa Rica	Hungary	Korea	Latvia§	Barbados	India	Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia	Curacao	Kazakhstan	Malaysia	Lithuania§	Belarus	Indonesia	Senegal
Ghana	Dominican Republic	Latvia§	Mongolia	Luxembourg	Belize	Iraq	Serbia
Iraq	Ecuador	Lithuania§	New Zealand	Malta	Bermuda	Israel	Sharjah
Israel	El Salvador	Macedonia	Pakistan	Netherlands	Bolivia	Ivory Coast (Cote d' Ivoire)	Singapore
Ivory Coast (Cote d' Ivoire)	Guatemala	Montenegro	Papua New Guinea	Portugal	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Jamaica	South Africa
Jordan	Honduras	Poland	Philippines	Slovak Republic§	Botswana	Jordan	Sri Lanka
Kenya	Jamaica	Romania	Singapore	Slovenia§	Brazil	Kazakhstan	Suriname
Kuwait	Mexico	Russia	Sri Lanka	Spain	Bulgaria	Kenya	Taiwan
Lebanon	Montserrat	Serbia	Taiwan		Burkina Faso	Korea	Tajikistan
Morocco	Nicaragua	Slovak Republic§	Thailand		Cambodia	Kuwait	Thailand
Mozambique	Panama	Slovenia§	Vietnam		Cameroon	Lebanon	Togo
Nigeria	Paraguay	Tajikistan			Cape Verde	Macedonia	Trinidad & Tobago
Oman	Peru	Turkiye			Chile	Malaysia	Tunisia
Qatar	Suriname	Ukraine			China	Mexico	Turkiye
Ras Al Khaimah	Trinidad and Tobago	Uzbekistan			Colombia	Mongolia	Turks and Caicos Islands
Rwanda	Turks and Caicos				Congo, D.R.	Montenegro	Uganda
Saudi Arabia	Uruguay				Congo-Brazzaville (Congo)	Montserrat	Ukraine
Senegal	Venezuela				Costa Rica	Morocco	Uruguay
Sharjah					Croatia	Mozambique	Uzbekistan
South Africa					Curacao	Nicaragua	Venezuela
St. Helena					Dominican Republic	Nigeria	Vietnam
Togo					Ecuador	Oman	Zambia
Uganda					Egypt	Pakistan
Zambia					El Salvador	Panama
*Commonwealth of Independent States, the alliance of 12 of the former republics of the Soviet Union. §Included in two European regions. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Most new sovereign ratings since 1998 have come from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and these regions have added the most speculative-grade ratings to the pool of sovereign ratings over the past decade.

The number of sovereign ratings in Central and Eastern Europe and CIS has also grown substantially over the past 20 years, totaling 24 at the end of 2022. This region includes Russia and Ukraine, with the armed conflict between the two having implications for rating stability across sovereigns in the region such as Belarus, which defaulted.

The Asia-Pacific and eurozone regions have a higher concentration of higher-rated issuers than other regions. These two regions have been relatively stable in terms of the number of rated sovereigns. For the eurozone (see table 24 for regional repartition of sovereigns), S&P Global Ratings has rated all 19 sovereign since at least 1997, while the Asia-Pacific region has had 20-22 since 2006. Much of the growth in sovereign ratings has come from regions with higher concentrations of lower-rated issuers, and this has reduced sovereign credit quality generally, even as the number of rated countries globally has increased.

Middle East and Africa

At the end of 2022, there were 32 sovereign credit ratings in the Middle East and Africa and another one in default. This compares to nine rated sovereigns in 1998. Sovereign ratings in this region were concentrated in the lower rating levels. Most of the issuers (23) were rated speculative grade, with 19 of those in the 'B' category or lower (see chart 24).

Latin America

The number of Latin American sovereign credit ratings has increased steadily since 1992, and at least 50% of the rated issuers have been rated speculative grade in all but one year (2014). At the end of 2022, there were 27 Latin American sovereigns with foreign currency sovereign credit ratings, and 16 of these were rated speculative grade. Among the 11 investment-grade sovereigns, the 'BBB' category is the largest, with nine (see chart 25).

Asia-Pacific

The Asia-Pacific region has 20 rated sovereigns with an additional issuer (Sri Lanka) in default as of the end of 2022. The Asia-Pacific region has a broad mix of sovereigns with different credit quality. 65% of rated sovereigns in the region are rated investment-grade, with two 'AAA' rated sovereigns: Australia and Singapore. Among speculative-grade sovereigns in the region, the 'B' rating category comprises the largest share of issuers at the end of 2022 with four out of seven (see chart 26).

Central and Eastern Europe and CIS

At the end of 2022, there were 24 rated sovereigns from Central and Eastern Europe and CIS, with an equal distribution between investment-grade and speculative grade.

While there has been a balance between investment- and speculative-grade sovereigns since 2021, most sovereigns were rated investment-grade from 2019 to 2020 after speculative grade had comprised the majority from 2010-2018. By rating category, the 'B' category is the largest, with six issuers. Within investment-grade, the 'BBB' category is largest, with five issuers (see chart 27).

Eurozone

Among our regional categories, the eurozone contains the fewest sovereign credit ratings, with 19, and this number has not changed since 1997. Eurozone ratings have the highest percentage of investment-grade ratings over total ratings among the regions considered, with over 90% of issuers rated in the investment-grade category. Moreover, over half of eurozone sovereign credit ratings are either within the 'AA' or 'A' categories, and just one sovereign in the region (Greece) is currently rated speculative grade and is in the 'BB' category (see chart 28).

Emerging and frontier markets

At the end of 2022, there were 91 rated emerging and frontier markets with 62% rated speculative grade. The number of rated emerging market sovereigns has more than doubled since 1998, and the majority of this region's ratings have been speculative grade in each of those years. The 'B' rating category is the largest within emerging and frontier markets and accounts for about 55% of speculative-grade issuers in the category. The number of emerging and frontier market sovereigns rated 'CCC+' and lower has increased to a high of eight in 2022, from five in 2019 (see chart 29).

Regional rating movement

Middle East and Africa.   Middle East and African sovereigns recorded only two downgrades in 2022, back to the 2019 low following the peak of 13 downgrades in 2020 and five in 2021. Of the two downgrades, one was Ghana's default and the other the downgrade of Burkina Faso following a military coup.

Furthermore, for the first time since 2018, upgrades (four) in the region outnumbered downgrades (two), as higher oil, gas, and mineral prices have aided commodity exporters, which are prevalent in the region. The Democratic Republic of the Congo was upgraded to 'B-' from 'CCC+' due to a moderation of its external imbalances; Angola to 'B-' from 'CCC+' as a consequence of improved debt metrics, economic recovery and lower currency depreciation; Oman to 'BB' from 'BB-' with a rationale of stronger external and fiscal performance and trajectory; and Qatar to 'AA' from 'AA-' on a declining debt burden.

Downgrades have been more dominant in the region since the global financial crisis, with 57 downgrades and only 11 upgrades over the past 10 years (see chart 30).

Latin America.   Latin American sovereign downgrades slowed to three in 2022 from 11 in 2020 and five in 2021 (see chart 31). The sovereigns downgraded were Bolivia, El Salvador, and Peru.

The region recorded two upgrades in 2022: Nicaragua to 'B' from 'B-' on economic and fiscal recovery and the Dominican Republic to 'BB' from 'BB-' due to positive economic growth sustained by stronger institutions. Annual upgrades over each of the past seven years have not exceeded two.

Asia-Pacific.  The number of upgrades and downgrades in the Asia-Pacific region were tied at two each (see chart 32). The two downgrades were Sri Lanka and Pakistan, while Vietnam was upgraded to 'BB+' from 'BB' on improved government administrative processes and Taiwan to 'AA+' from 'AA' on stronger economic performance.

Central and Eastern Europe and CIS.   The region saw four downgrades in 2022, from one in 2021. Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus defaulted. The other downgrade was that of Turkiye.

There was just one upgrade in the region in 2022: Croatia was upgraded to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-' upon confirmation of joining the eurozone. As such, Croatia benefits from the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy flexibility and reduced foreign exchange risks, access to a deep capital market, and direct access to the ECB's facilities. The upgrade also followed steady near-term economic prospects and stronger near-term execution of EU-funded investments.

Upgrades steadily increased between 2015 and 2019, rising to seven. Thereafter, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict clouded sovereign rating actions, with only two upgrades in 2020 and no upgrades in 2021 (see chart 33).

Eurozone.  Over the past nine years, eurozone sovereign rating actions have been largely positive as the region has recovered from the global financial crisis and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Moreover, the region has not recorded a downgrade in the past seven years. Three upgrades were recorded in 2022--Cyprus to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' due to economic resilience, Greece to 'BB+' from 'BB' on improved economic policy governance, and Portugal to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' over solid fiscal and growth outcomes--surpassing two upgrades in 2020 and one in 2021 (see chart 34).

Ratings within the region remained resilient to complications from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, high inflation, and food and energy price pressures.

Emerging and frontier markets.  Emerging and frontier markets, which include countries from other regions, accounted for all the year's downgrades (11). These downgrades also contained each of the year's five defaults.

Central and Eastern Europe and CIS accounted for four of the 11 downgrades, followed by Latin America with three, and Asia-Pacific and Middle East and Africa with two each. Despite the number of downgrades almost matching the previous year (12), upgrades recorded a marked increase to nine from zero and one in 2020 and 2021, respectively (see chart 35).

Appendix 3: Methodology And Definitions

This study is based on long-term sovereign credit ratings. The methodology tracks rating migrations over time and includes revisions to 'SD' (selective default). An 'SD' rating is more common for sovereign issuers than a 'D' (default) rating because defaulting sovereigns often continue to service some of their debt. This study is based on issuer credit ratings as opposed to issue ratings. In other words, we look at the ratings on the central governments themselves, not the ratings on the individual securities these governments might have issued.

Our metrics treat all issuers equally and are not adjusted for size or influence. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, a default by Argentina counts the same as a default by Mali, even though the latter has a much smaller economy. Our study tracks defaults on a sovereign's commercial debt, including both bonds and bank loans.

Withdrawn ratings (as indicated with the abbreviation NR, which stands for "not rated") are included until the date of withdrawal. We record defaults after the date of withdrawal if we obtain knowledge of those defaults. There are 206 total rating records for sovereigns, including defaulted ratings.

S&P Global Ratings generally defines "default" as the failure to meet a principal or interest payment on the due date contained in the original terms of a debt issue (see "S&P Global Ratings Definitions," Nov. 10, 2021). However, questions can arise when applying this definition to sovereign obligations. We consider a sovereign to be in default under any of the following circumstances:

• For local currency and foreign currency bonds, notes, and bills issued by the central government and held outside the public sector of the country, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or tenders an exchange offer of new debt with less favorable terms than the original issue.
• For private-sector bank loans incurred by the central government, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or negotiates with the bank creditors a rescheduling of principal or interest at less favorable terms than in the original loan.

Emergence from default also can be a complicated analytical issue for sovereigns. Sovereigns often undertake debt restructurings through exchange offers that, we find, rarely close the books on the restructured debt. For a number of reasons, from difficulty in contacting all debtholders to holdouts seeking payment in accordance with original terms, we have observed that participation in sovereign distressed debt exchanges usually does not reach 100%. This stands in contrast with debt restructurings in the U.S. and many other jurisdictions, where all obligations are typically addressed in bankruptcy reorganization. An entity reorganizing outside of bankruptcy generally must continue payments on the holdouts' debt or face the prospect of an involuntary bankruptcy filing.

Less common among sovereign defaults is the repudiation of debt, which most often follows a revolutionary change of regime (as occurred in Russia in 1917, China in 1949, and Cuba in 1960). S&P Global Ratings takes no position on the propriety of government debt defaults, repudiations, and the like. S&P Global Ratings also does not take a position on the course of negotiations (or the absence thereof) between creditors and the government to work out debt that is repudiated or the parameters of any settlements between creditors and governments that could occur. Instead, our issuer credit ratings are forward-looking opinions about an obligor's overall creditworthiness. We analyze historical defaults to form our own view as to the extent that they could affect the likelihood of the sovereign defaulting in the future.

In general, S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings apply only to debt that the present government acknowledges as its own. If there is no resolution of a default through the courts or by the parties involved, S&P Global Ratings eventually withdraws the defaulted ratings based on the diminished prospects for resolution and the defaulted ratings' lack of relevance in the context of the market. For example, S&P Global Ratings has no ratings on direct and guaranteed debt of the government of China issued prior to the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 because S&P Global Ratings first rated China in 1992, long after the new government repudiated pre-1949 debt. The default is included in our sovereign default survey, which covers defaults by rated and unrated issuers.

Our dataset includes sovereign credit ratings that were withdrawn following a default. In those cases, if the sovereign has been rated again, a new record would have been established, and the new rating would not be connected to the defaulted rating. This creates more than one record for defaulted sovereigns.

Static pool methodology

S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights conducts its default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issuers by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. All issuers included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. When an issuer defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issuer belonged.

We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates, such as by ensuring that default rates account for rating migration and can be calculated across multiperiod time horizons. Some methods for calculating default and rating transition rates might charge defaults against only the initial rating on the issuer, ignoring more recent rating changes that supply more current information. Other methods may calculate default rates using only the most recent year's default and rating data, which may yield comparatively low default rates during periods of high rating activity because they ignore prior years' default activity.

The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of sovereigns in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Dec. 31, 1975, to avoid continuity problems.

For instance, the 1976 static pool consists of all sovereigns rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1976. Adding those sovereigns first rated in 1976 to the surviving members of the 1976 static pool forms the 1977 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1977 static pool through the ratings on these entities as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1977. We used the same method to form static pools for 1978-2022.

Consider the following example for annual static pools: A sovereign is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1986 and downgraded to 'B' in 1988. This is followed by a default in 1993. We would include this hypothetical issuer in the 1987 and 1988 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1989-1993 pools with the 'B' rating. Yet each of the seven pools in which this sovereign was included (1987-1993) would record its 1993 default at the appropriate time horizon.

Default rate calculations

Cumulative default rates average the experience of all static pools in a select period of time by calculating marginal weighted average default rates conditional on survival (survivors being non-defaulters) for each possible time horizon and accumulating marginal default rates. We calculate conditional-on-survival default rates by dividing the number of issuers in a static pool that default within a specific time horizon by the number of issuers that survived (did not default) up to that point in time. In the context of sovereign ratings, we treat the defaults of governments that selectively default as complete defaults.

Transition analysis

Transition rates compare issuer credit ratings at the beginning of a period with ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. An issuer that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated.

For instance, an issuer continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If the rating on the issuer was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.

All 1975 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2022, had 47 one-year transitions, while sovereigns first rated on Jan. 1, 2022, had only one. Table 27 displays the summary of one-year transitions in the investment-grade and speculative-grade rating categories. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to 'SD', plus an entry for NR.

The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if an entity was rated 'A' on Jan. 1, 2015, and was downgraded to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this entity would be included only in the percentage of issuers that began the year at 'A' that ended the year at 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issuer defaults, we consider the rating as of Dec. 31 of that particular year to be 'D'. Similarly, if we withdraw our rating on an issuer, the methodology considers the issuer as of Dec. 31 of that year to be not rated.

Multiyear transitions

Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two to 15 years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1975-2019 with the ratings at the end of the years 1978-2022. Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions.

We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issuer-weighted averages.

For inclusion in the matrix, the issuer must be in at least one year. In the case of the three-year matrix, we must have rated the sovereign by Jan. 1, 2019; in the case of the 15-year matrix, we must have rated it by Jan. 1, 2007. Thus, there are progressively fewer observations the longer the transition period is, given the growth of sovereign ratings and, of course, given that there will be fewer static pools for each added set of 12 monthly cohorts in the matrix.

Annualized 12-month cohorts

In past studies, we have also included calculations of sovereigns' rating performance based on annualized 12-month cohorts, where static pools were created with monthly start dates and rating transitions were measured over 12-month increments for each monthly static pool. Unless otherwise noted in this study, we've utilized an annual static pool methodology to calculate average transition rates, default rates, and Gini ratios. An annual static pool groups all rated entities as of Jan. 1 of a given year and compares those ratings with those on the entities as of Dec. 31 of the same year (for a one-year horizon).

In contrast, an annualized 12-month static pool approach would compare the ratings on entities as of the beginning of each month with the ratings on those entities 12 months later (for a one-year horizon). Transition and default rates calculated with this type of annualized monthly static pool approach can be found in tables in Appendix 4 (see tables 25-42 for transition rates and tables 51-52, 58, and 60-66).

Gini ratios based on this annualized monthly static pool approach diverge somewhat from the Ginis shown in table 3 (which utilizes the annual static pool approach). Annualized monthly static pools yield weighted average Gini ratios for foreign currency ratings of 89.3%, 80.6%, 76.1%, and 70.6% over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, respectively. For local currency ratings, annualized monthly static pools result in weighted average Gini ratios of 83.1%, 72.5%, 66.6%, and 58.4% over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, respectively.

Rating modifiers

Our calculations of upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, consider the specific rating as opposed to the rating category (for example, 'A-', 'A', and 'A+' rather than the 'A' rating category). However, for practical reasons, some transition tables may use rating categories. This means that actions such as a downgrade to 'AA-' from 'AA' or an upgrade to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-' are not considered transitions because the ratings remained within the same rating category.

Appendix 4: Additional Exhibits

Transition rates

Table 25

Sovereign foreign-currency average one-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.84	3.08	0.01	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	2.05	93.95	2.83	0.27	0.24	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.61
A	0.00	3.83	90.75	4.77	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.32
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.33	90.72	4.28	0.38	0.14	0.14	0.02
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.75	86.67	6.16	0.51	0.42	0.48
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	4.38	87.60	3.59	2.87	1.54
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.52	42.80	32.59	2.10
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 26

Sovereign foreign-currency average three-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.57	8.34	0.09	0.16	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43
AA	6.52	82.68	7.55	1.84	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.14
A	0.00	11.41	72.83	12.91	1.61	0.09	0.27	0.44	0.44
BBB	0.00	0.00	14.01	72.39	10.96	1.01	0.24	1.07	0.31
BB	0.00	0.00	0.20	17.05	64.68	14.07	0.70	2.17	1.12
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.25	10.90	70.56	4.44	10.10	3.75
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.74	24.54	18.40	49.63	6.69
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 27

Sovereign foreign-currency average five-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.64	12.98	0.13	0.84	0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61
AA	11.34	72.32	12.59	1.99	0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.15
A	0.00	17.90	56.53	20.37	2.83	0.12	0.29	1.48	0.48
BBB	0.00	0.04	21.91	57.99	14.59	2.35	0.33	1.96	0.82
BB	0.00	0.00	1.42	22.12	52.60	16.76	1.10	4.37	1.64
B	0.00	0.00	0.03	2.33	13.38	59.01	4.30	15.61	5.36
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42	3.99	17.02	9.03	56.93	12.61
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 28

Sovereign foreign-currency average 10-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.48	22.64	1.13	1.20	0.47	0.51	0.00	0.00	1.57
AA	22.34	53.93	16.04	5.33	1.99	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.38
A	1.43	23.48	40.23	21.78	5.56	1.57	0.37	4.98	0.60
BBB	0.00	3.92	28.08	40.58	16.25	2.64	0.44	5.25	2.83
BB	0.00	0.00	4.63	31.30	31.63	17.99	1.23	11.11	2.11
B	0.00	0.00	0.05	4.71	20.32	41.16	2.34	25.84	5.57
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.42	12.99	0.30	65.26	19.03
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 29

Sovereign foreign-currency average 15-year transition rates (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	66.71	28.54	1.62	0.00	0.43	0.76	0.00	0.00	1.95
AA	30.33	39.28	14.45	12.60	2.68	0.28	0.21	0.17	0.00
A	3.50	27.57	38.38	14.39	3.09	4.14	0.56	8.36	0.00
BBB	0.00	9.39	32.05	28.05	13.73	3.09	0.63	8.51	4.55
BB	0.00	0.00	4.45	40.20	22.82	16.14	0.25	15.40	0.74
B	0.00	0.00	0.09	9.76	16.88	36.18	1.76	33.32	2.02
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.13	0.00	6.64	0.00	65.63	24.61
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 30

Sovereign local-currency average one-year transition rates (1993-2022)
(%)	--Ratings one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.14	3.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.42	92.17	4.97	0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.71
A	0.00	2.82	90.44	5.99	0.30	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.30
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.15	89.36	5.70	0.49	0.11	0.00	0.18
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.84	85.29	7.85	0.83	0.60	0.60
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.59	88.20	3.81	1.52	1.88
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.01	56.53	9.83	3.63
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12 month cohort between 1993 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 31

Sovereign local-currency average five-year transition rates (1993-2022)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	81.17	16.88	0.15	1.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76
AA	5.95	65.79	23.04	3.25	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.38
A	0.00	13.56	58.21	20.81	4.25	0.54	0.28	1.41	0.95
BBB	0.00	0.00	17.34	55.24	20.07	4.76	0.65	1.34	0.60
BB	0.00	0.00	1.36	19.89	46.38	25.54	1.92	2.80	2.11
B	0.00	0.00	0.19	1.85	15.56	61.60	7.51	6.29	7.01
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.60	2.47	40.00	11.46	25.39	17.08
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60 month cohort between 1993 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 32

Sovereign local-currency average 15-year transition rates (1993-2022)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	64.24	26.92	3.86	1.82	0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.70
AA	2.64	34.96	31.95	21.39	3.16	1.50	1.19	3.21	0.00
A	1.83	21.64	34.14	12.65	10.08	5.61	0.27	9.19	4.59
BBB	0.00	2.16	19.80	44.19	20.63	9.13	0.00	4.09	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	5.82	24.08	31.01	25.60	2.73	8.61	2.15
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.65	15.66	48.03	6.41	14.24	4.01
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.66	14.89	8.51	8.09	34.04	26.81
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180 month cohort between 1993 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 33

Sovereign foreign-currency average one-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.84	2.66	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	6.18	84.55	6.33	1.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.24
AA	0.00	6.50	85.18	6.50	0.50	0.40	0.10	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	7.51	83.47	6.94	0.16	0.47	0.16	0.00	0.16	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.62
A+	0.00	0.00	0.07	12.43	74.54	8.79	1.89	1.04	0.13	0.59	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.46
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.13	12.17	77.64	5.61	1.65	0.75	0.94	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.91	11.07	78.07	6.69	0.40	1.51	0.65	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.55
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.09	11.94	71.19	11.54	2.32	0.58	0.23	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.76	16.12	69.52	10.49	0.93	0.10	0.00	0.46	0.21	0.10	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.10	14.34	75.04	6.47	2.02	0.26	0.07	0.15	0.11	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.33	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.52	19.94	67.42	9.62	1.10	0.17	0.06	0.00	0.17	0.35	0.00	0.46	0.17	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76	14.73	70.77	10.93	1.76	0.67	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.10	0.10
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.97	10.09	73.36	11.48	1.12	0.43	0.15	0.12	0.15	0.15	0.85	1.12
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.94	9.90	69.44	14.80	2.37	0.32	0.19	0.13	0.16	0.62	1.07
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.56	12.73	68.83	9.27	2.11	0.92	0.20	0.16	2.54	2.67
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.23	13.96	67.93	5.50	1.71	0.67	0.47	7.01	0.52
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.87	2.49	24.07	45.23	6.43	0.41	0.00	17.01	2.49
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.19	14.60	0.00	24.82	5.84	5.11	45.26	2.19
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.17	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.70	84.78	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 34

Sovereign foreign-currency average three-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.57	6.22	1.37	0.75	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43
AA+	18.20	61.04	13.79	4.52	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.49	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.47
AA	0.76	15.16	62.77	14.51	2.55	1.09	1.09	0.76	0.27	0.71	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	2.83	17.46	55.27	13.79	2.23	2.83	0.18	0.90	1.99	0.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.05
A+	0.00	0.00	4.51	28.75	39.02	15.08	1.77	3.25	2.29	2.22	0.74	1.26	0.00	0.15	0.15	0.00	0.22	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.37	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.92	25.71	45.19	8.68	5.45	3.34	3.04	0.83	0.15	0.10	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.29	0.20	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.53	5.23	22.29	50.19	12.64	2.83	2.35	0.32	1.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.75	1.23
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.41	7.10	17.81	40.37	18.12	11.53	1.52	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.44	0.06
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.47	3.75	11.67	19.35	37.65	12.73	7.80	1.88	1.06	1.23	0.29	0.06	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.29	0.18
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.98	3.11	9.71	24.84	41.23	10.12	5.66	1.02	0.49	0.61	0.16	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.08	1.31	0.57
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.73	2.08	7.75	32.91	30.16	16.36	4.46	1.77	1.47	0.61	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.34	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	1.84	9.50	19.44	37.49	20.14	7.86	0.80	0.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	1.29	0.45
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.51	4.11	19.79	39.72	15.08	6.64	3.64	0.94	0.09	0.26	0.21	3.51	2.49
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.58	1.51	3.41	12.15	41.34	23.76	7.94	0.97	1.15	0.50	0.65	3.95	2.01
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.69	0.44	7.12	16.90	37.45	15.88	2.12	1.24	0.33	0.11	10.18	7.55
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.36	0.85	3.65	5.90	27.37	33.64	6.14	0.73	0.12	0.49	20.38	0.36
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.58	0.58	6.96	9.28	16.52	24.93	2.90	0.87	0.00	26.96	10.43
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.74	0.93	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	83.33	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	97.56	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 35

Sovereign foreign-currency average five-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.64	8.47	2.99	1.51	0.00	0.09	0.04	0.61	0.00	0.22	0.00	0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61
AA+	25.24	46.06	19.26	6.84	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.63	0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.55
AA	6.40	15.13	46.53	17.88	6.52	2.75	3.35	0.72	0.36	0.00	0.00	0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.48	7.63	20.38	36.26	17.66	4.57	5.25	0.75	1.23	2.18	0.00	1.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.98
A+	0.00	2.06	9.11	32.42	20.98	12.30	1.89	5.76	4.82	5.59	0.95	1.29	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	2.49	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	1.82	12.94	23.13	30.09	9.04	5.87	4.99	7.07	1.25	1.51	0.10	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.16	0.10	0.00	0.36	1.40	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.06	9.05	21.53	33.95	14.45	6.21	5.28	1.39	1.39	0.41	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.87	1.33
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.15	5.55	8.33	18.19	31.63	17.02	11.91	5.04	0.88	0.51	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.51	0.07
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.54	9.01	13.77	18.40	19.05	11.00	9.78	5.28	2.45	1.67	2.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.12	1.74
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.23	4.46	7.67	13.79	20.54	28.86	10.02	5.06	2.57	1.24	0.87	0.51	0.64	0.09	0.00	0.05	2.76	0.64
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.64	3.38	1.91	20.92	23.28	15.43	15.75	9.06	3.51	0.64	2.04	1.08	0.00	0.00	0.06	2.30	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.84	1.85	4.80	13.31	15.21	29.41	18.27	10.98	1.32	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.63	0.11	2.38	0.48
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76	1.00	4.38	8.77	21.34	22.44	12.91	8.48	6.91	0.38	0.86	0.00	0.14	7.72	3.91
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.32	0.48	2.89	1.08	2.17	12.16	30.50	23.15	11.32	1.81	0.84	0.20	0.60	9.19	3.21
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.13	1.15	0.38	1.87	10.51	15.74	25.82	13.19	2.21	1.40	0.30	0.09	16.50	10.59
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43	1.01	1.51	2.51	6.75	11.42	25.14	18.97	5.03	0.72	0.14	0.43	25.57	0.36
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.69	0.69	0.00	5.52	4.14	7.24	10.34	6.55	6.90	1.38	0.00	35.86	20.69
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.04	0.94	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	83.02	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	97.30	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 36

Sovereign foreign-currency average 10-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.48	13.04	6.80	2.80	0.76	0.10	0.27	1.03	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.47	0.00	0.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.57
AA+	32.77	25.71	26.04	10.23	0.20	0.87	0.67	0.81	0.47	1.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.94
AA	18.94	21.36	14.34	12.08	19.17	2.65	1.09	1.79	1.95	2.96	0.00	3.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	10.56	8.45	7.60	33.58	9.29	8.55	11.30	1.16	2.11	4.54	2.53	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	6.12	1.50	16.63	3.70	15.59	10.39	11.78	4.85	12.12	11.43	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.54	0.00
A	0.12	1.66	11.36	19.68	13.08	8.09	16.71	6.60	3.45	2.50	0.77	2.38	1.66	3.33	0.18	0.00	0.18	0.24	0.00	0.42	7.61	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	1.09	11.44	13.46	10.51	21.01	8.79	9.81	10.82	6.93	2.41	0.70	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.17	1.79
BBB+	0.00	0.00	1.64	4.80	1.41	13.00	19.32	18.15	3.63	12.41	8.90	4.22	5.27	0.00	2.46	0.70	1.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.22	0.12
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.70	6.81	5.85	10.74	9.96	7.86	14.32	12.58	4.98	6.11	2.10	3.41	0.61	1.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	5.07	7.60
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.62	17.49	7.06	13.68	14.55	19.93	10.43	4.12	2.75	0.31	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.00	0.87
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.14	2.87	6.93	8.53	8.29	20.56	8.29	8.45	11.08	4.62	3.35	5.02	0.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.41	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.65	0.39	0.00	7.17	14.73	14.21	6.45	11.99	17.08	14.73	5.74	0.72	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.15	0.52
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.28	2.67	10.67	7.44	5.89	16.28	8.63	5.96	7.58	5.40	0.98	1.19	0.28	0.28	20.77	5.68
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.00	3.82	3.25	2.22	3.82	7.70	19.57	19.05	10.04	1.71	0.80	0.23	0.06	21.51	6.10
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.51	0.71	1.74	3.54	14.36	18.09	13.84	8.11	1.09	1.35	0.00	0.13	27.04	7.47
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76	1.65	5.33	17.01	13.96	4.31	4.44	17.89	0.13	0.38	0.00	0.38	33.12	0.63
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.33	9.78	0.00	0.00	0.44	0.00	56.89	28.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.96	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	66.04	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 37

Sovereign foreign-currency average 15-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2022)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	66.71	15.66	8.04	4.84	0.86	0.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.08	0.43	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.95
AA+	38.52	19.53	19.92	11.41	3.28	0.70	1.88	3.28	1.33	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	28.81	11.52	4.63	11.42	15.33	1.03	0.21	5.66	9.05	7.10	2.47	2.16	0.00	0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	15.81	11.45	4.03	18.23	16.77	8.71	3.39	1.13	11.61	1.61	1.13	4.03	0.00	0.00	0.32	0.00	0.48	0.48	0.00	0.00	0.81	0.00
A+	7.76	5.73	5.90	13.32	7.25	19.39	14.50	4.38	3.54	9.11	4.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.06	0.00
A	4.21	2.60	11.91	11.01	12.80	7.07	21.58	8.77	0.09	2.51	0.00	0.18	0.63	2.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.50	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	3.92	27.72	20.32	2.96	9.74	6.88	3.17	6.24	2.65	0.74	1.80	6.24	2.22	0.63	1.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.17	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	4.13	13.70	9.94	12.01	14.82	14.07	8.44	1.69	1.88	0.94	6.75	2.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.19	9.38	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	8.27	8.53	12.53	6.33	12.02	5.94	6.46	9.30	2.07	7.88	3.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.43	12.14
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.03	12.03	15.52	11.29	4.59	18.55	8.17	7.16	0.92	0.09	1.38	4.32	0.55	0.09	0.00	0.64	10.28	1.38
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.32	7.28	0.00	10.81	16.61	24.80	5.57	0.57	5.12	2.50	7.74	1.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.86	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.95	10.69	14.50	24.62	2.10	7.44	12.02	10.40	7.25	0.86	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.49	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.55	0.00	0.00	11.17	5.09	1.11	8.08	9.18	18.25	9.51	2.88	4.98	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.88	2.32
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.00	0.00	1.87	5.18	4.85	5.62	10.35	3.63	19.49	6.28	9.14	1.98	0.33	0.00	0.00	30.07	0.99
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.56	3.53	4.33	2.85	3.76	11.16	14.92	10.48	1.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	38.84	4.21
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.66	6.13	3.27	11.66	7.57	14.72	10.43	12.68	0.61	0.61	0.00	0.20	29.45	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	59.43	36.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.52	30.95	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	59.52	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180 month cohort between 1975 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 38

Sovereign local-currency average one-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2022)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.14	2.67	1.07	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	5.55	81.51	7.94	2.77	0.15	0.00	0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.85
AA	0.00	2.95	86.05	8.15	0.59	0.59	0.75	0.91	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	4.87	82.40	10.21	0.21	0.63	0.89	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63
A+	0.00	0.00	0.62	7.46	77.63	10.25	2.12	0.98	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.36
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60	11.05	74.20	10.40	2.80	0.70	0.15	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	13.43	71.96	10.62	1.08	1.23	0.59	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.90	9.66	72.02	11.71	3.40	1.15	0.55	0.15	0.00	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02	10.61	71.80	13.68	1.21	0.64	0.19	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.58
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	1.61	11.10	73.50	9.65	2.44	0.57	0.57	0.16	0.16	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.00	13.36	69.15	11.47	3.49	0.00	0.53	0.00	0.12	0.24	0.00	0.41	0.18	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.56	15.24	63.85	13.08	2.24	1.47	0.91	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.26	0.98
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.05	8.00	72.50	12.84	2.49	0.67	0.34	0.57	0.00	0.24	0.48	0.81
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.28	1.23	9.87	69.56	14.80	2.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.16	0.48	1.31
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	1.06	10.60	70.26	10.35	2.27	0.78	0.00	0.18	1.06	3.30
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63	2.27	13.00	70.47	6.60	1.74	0.16	1.00	3.59	0.53
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	3.58	30.20	47.65	7.61	3.58	1.57	2.91	2.68
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.08	27.78	1.39	27.08	13.19	4.86	21.53	2.08
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.37	15.07	0.00	58.90	0.00	8.22	16.44
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.19	18.99	0.00	0.00	0.00	36.71	29.11	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12 month cohort between 1993 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 39

Sovereign local-currency average three-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2022)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	88.12	7.28	3.16	0.62	0.00	0.05	0.04	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.53
AA+	14.89	55.09	10.01	12.53	0.25	1.35	1.18	1.93	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.27
AA	0.82	3.98	70.16	15.92	2.75	1.46	2.11	0.99	1.05	0.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	1.27	12.36	52.24	21.33	3.70	4.30	1.64	0.24	0.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.06
A+	0.00	0.00	2.05	21.92	43.61	18.49	6.16	2.97	1.66	0.06	0.40	0.97	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.97	0.17	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.29	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.39	20.00	44.36	15.21	10.16	4.73	1.33	0.90	0.16	0.11	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.32	0.21	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.52	9.07	23.36	38.58	15.07	3.65	4.12	0.31	2.66	0.31	0.00	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.73	1.25
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.29	5.43	16.66	38.64	14.21	12.83	6.12	1.06	0.53	0.00	0.64	0.85	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.37	0.16
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.46	4.87	18.25	42.66	17.19	11.48	1.98	0.91	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.23	1.75
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.07	1.19	4.52	20.12	43.57	13.15	5.65	4.35	1.07	2.80	0.65	0.36	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.43	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.99	3.23	8.57	16.83	38.88	18.51	8.70	1.06	1.49	0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.12	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.24	2.78	8.42	19.85	21.62	20.46	10.27	1.78	8.34	1.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.78	2.16
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.81	2.64	2.69	13.09	41.92	18.70	9.48	3.77	1.08	1.08	0.00	0.48	2.16	2.10
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.27	0.36	1.52	2.77	12.87	44.39	23.51	7.02	1.21	0.72	0.00	0.13	1.70	3.53
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24	0.99	2.02	6.96	14.31	39.78	16.96	3.08	2.06	0.83	0.36	3.76	8.66
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.32	0.44	2.77	2.77	3.78	24.97	42.37	8.39	0.76	0.50	3.03	9.52	0.38
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.50	0.60	0.60	5.69	17.96	26.05	23.05	2.99	1.80	0.00	8.98	10.78
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.74	0.00	4.35	1.74	19.13	13.91	0.00	0.00	25.22	1.74	32.17	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	38.89	0.00	13.89	44.44
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	23.68	23.68	10.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.11	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36 month cohort between 1993 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 40

Sovereign local-currency average five-year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2022)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	81.17	10.90	4.81	1.17	0.00	0.11	0.04	0.76	0.00	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76
AA+	18.24	40.79	9.17	18.05	1.59	3.09	1.31	1.87	2.34	1.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.53
AA	2.60	2.73	57.43	17.78	9.60	2.99	4.67	0.78	0.39	1.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.48	2.61	15.66	33.04	25.27	8.24	8.17	1.85	0.00	1.03	0.00	1.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.99
A+	0.00	0.00	5.74	26.99	26.99	16.65	8.45	6.49	3.15	1.58	0.00	0.95	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.07	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.00	1.83	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.81	6.14	12.62	33.64	16.27	9.96	7.59	6.02	1.39	2.20	0.46	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.17	0.12	0.00	0.41	1.56	0.23
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.55	16.07	20.01	23.43	13.69	6.73	6.44	3.71	2.15	1.62	0.06	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.87	2.55
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	9.99	15.48	22.22	12.22	14.85	9.71	2.46	1.43	0.46	2.28	0.97	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.40	0.17
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.86	7.52	20.50	28.74	11.64	14.23	5.64	5.01	2.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.27	1.25
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	2.74	1.50	3.97	18.33	35.77	12.93	5.06	6.16	3.08	1.98	2.80	0.68	0.82	0.00	0.14	3.28	0.62
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.51	4.69	14.61	13.81	30.87	13.88	12.16	1.45	0.46	2.12	1.06	0.86	0.00	0.13	1.39	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.36	4.33	8.23	10.43	14.50	9.84	13.23	17.98	2.54	12.89	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.95	2.37
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31	0.80	1.96	2.64	2.70	12.32	27.96	19.44	12.02	8.34	1.23	1.41	0.00	0.31	4.72	3.86
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.36	0.00	0.51	1.32	1.37	4.53	11.00	31.87	26.88	11.00	1.63	0.97	1.07	0.10	2.14	5.24
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.14	0.93	1.17	0.56	3.50	11.92	13.83	25.28	17.48	3.46	1.64	1.07	0.00	6.26	12.62
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.47	0.39	0.39	2.40	4.89	5.51	7.21	25.91	24.36	9.62	1.32	0.70	3.80	12.65	0.39
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.70	0.68	0.68	0.00	2.72	4.76	19.05	16.33	5.10	3.40	2.04	0.34	22.79	20.41
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	7.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.85	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.59	0.00	29.63	9.26
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	75.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.71	45.71	11.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.14	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60 month cohort between 1993 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 41

Sovereign local-currency average 10-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2022)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.32	13.85	5.35	3.06	1.39	0.13	0.35	1.32	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.02
AA+	7.59	17.24	24.83	9.79	9.10	9.38	1.38	5.52	3.72	9.52	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.93
AA	3.37	3.90	30.29	15.50	24.62	6.11	4.87	2.13	2.21	3.37	0.00	3.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	6.45	0.99	7.94	37.50	15.08	4.66	12.00	1.98	1.69	5.85	4.37	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.00	0.30	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.00
A+	0.15	2.10	20.06	13.22	10.37	11.50	11.50	8.34	8.34	3.76	4.36	0.83	0.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.81	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	3.80	6.94	7.53	18.49	17.75	6.49	6.11	4.33	0.60	7.31	2.54	4.18	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.52	8.20	4.77
A-	0.00	0.00	1.16	5.24	3.58	18.64	21.38	12.23	7.15	9.65	8.40	1.58	1.50	0.08	1.75	0.50	0.50	0.75	0.00	0.17	2.08	3.66
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.62	4.33	14.54	11.83	5.88	3.17	12.30	12.84	17.25	6.73	6.26	1.24	0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	1.78	0.93
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	6.30	0.00	13.75	14.27	33.68	4.24	1.03	7.07	9.51	2.19	0.64	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.39	1.80
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.89	2.90	2.23	6.01	19.93	30.18	2.67	2.00	5.90	1.78	6.35	8.24	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.58	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.40	0.50	3.88	13.13	13.05	9.25	14.12	12.88	14.20	7.02	4.21	2.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.05	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.12	0.67	2.23	4.25	13.07	3.02	12.63	1.23	13.97	12.40	15.31	9.83	2.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.80	3.02
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.88	7.40	0.21	4.17	6.67	8.02	18.85	15.94	9.06	2.71	2.29	5.10	0.73	10.52	6.46
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.57	2.20	0.90	2.53	2.61	7.59	25.55	18.04	20.65	2.78	0.82	1.71	0.00	2.12	11.92
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.45	2.68	3.06	1.04	3.80	19.82	14.38	12.89	13.64	2.16	1.27	0.00	3.28	12.00	9.54
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.71	0.62	5.28	9.16	17.24	4.66	0.62	8.70	19.25	1.40	1.71	0.00	0.47	28.42	0.78
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.46	25.24	0.00	0.00	0.49	1.46	38.35	30.58
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.24	0.00	2.94	0.00	1.47	23.53	2.94	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.88	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	0.00	0.00	3.85	57.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.77	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120 month cohort between 1993 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 42

Sovereign local-currency average 15-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2022)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/To	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	64.24	16.02	7.84	3.07	2.16	1.33	0.37	1.33	0.00	0.48	0.00	0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.70
AA+	0.18	5.13	21.25	6.78	11.36	16.67	6.96	13.00	5.13	9.52	1.28	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.37	0.00	0.55	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.92	0.00
AA	2.12	6.62	13.11	16.29	21.19	4.64	7.42	1.06	11.66	8.21	3.18	2.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.72	0.00
AA-	5.40	8.73	9.84	16.67	22.70	0.48	4.60	5.56	10.95	0.00	0.00	1.11	0.00	0.00	3.33	0.95	0.95	1.43	0.00	0.32	6.98	0.00
A+	5.40	3.33	22.39	12.86	2.53	8.84	15.38	8.04	1.72	5.28	5.74	3.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.17	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	5.02	8.82	9.44	9.31	12.62	5.51	2.94	2.33	3.92	3.68	2.21	7.84	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	13.36
A-	0.00	0.00	1.59	10.54	11.22	16.10	16.67	5.67	3.29	3.06	6.46	2.72	2.15	3.40	1.13	4.08	0.68	0.00	0.00	0.11	10.09	1.02
BBB+	0.00	0.00	3.03	1.28	5.48	17.83	12.47	3.96	16.78	17.25	5.83	8.62	4.66	1.52	0.00	1.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.38	1.95	8.01	17.97	43.51	7.79	1.73	1.73	11.69	0.65	2.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.00	6.35	4.92	3.07	23.16	5.53	3.69	22.95	3.89	10.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.16	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.36	8.33	11.64	14.22	3.16	15.80	10.92	3.88	6.18	2.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.91	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.83	5.13	13.41	2.32	2.65	16.39	15.40	8.94	9.60	16.23	0.99	0.83	0.00	0.66	3.48	3.15
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.48	6.68	1.67	3.58	11.93	9.79	6.21	14.80	9.31	9.79	3.10	0.72	3.82	0.00	13.84	4.30
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.77	6.56	2.98	5.77	2.98	28.23	14.71	16.10	0.80	0.00	1.19	0.00	10.93	4.97
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.43	6.46	1.91	2.06	5.29	11.45	17.03	22.03	2.20	0.59	1.76	1.03	17.33	5.43
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.43	7.20	17.45	10.25	5.54	16.62	0.28	11.08	0.00	0.83	3.60	9.70	13.02	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.90	3.80	1.27	0.00	6.96	43.04	39.87
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.24	1.72	0.00	29.31	3.45	0.00	6.90	22.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.97	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	84.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180 month cohort between 1993 and 2022 annualized. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 43

Sovereign foreign-currency ratings one-year most recent transition matrices (2022)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	16.67	83.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	10.00	90.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	80.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	72.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	88.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.67	0.00	80.00	13.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	72.73	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	69.23	15.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 44

Sovereign foreign-currency ratings three-year most recent transition matrices (2020-2022)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	14.29	71.43	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	10.00	10.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	66.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	33.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	80.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	44.44	22.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	62.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	45.45	27.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	66.67	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	60.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	60.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	66.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	31.25	25.00	6.25	6.25	0.00	0.00	31.25	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	36.36	27.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	9.09
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 45

Sovereign foreign-currency ratings 10-year most recent transition matrices (2013-2022)
(%)	--Rating ten years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	78.57	14.29	7.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	40.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
AA	0.00	20.00	60.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	11.11	0.00	33.33	33.33	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	28.57	14.29	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	36.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	25.00	37.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	12.50	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.38	15.38	7.69	0.00	23.08	15.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.38	7.69
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	23.08	15.38	15.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.77	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	8.33	8.33	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	16.67
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 46

Sovereign foreign-currency ratings original to last transition matrices
(%)	--Sovereign foreign-currency ratings original to last transition matrices--
From/to	Total	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	D	NR
AAA	20	50.00	20.00	10.00	5.00	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00
AA+	3	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	5	20.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00
A+	6	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	11.11	33.33	22.22	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50
BBB+	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	8	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	25.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00
BBB-	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	20.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00
BB+	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	14.29	28.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00
BB	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	30.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00
BB-	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	10.53	5.26	0.00	15.79	5.26	5.26	5.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	26.32	15.79
B+	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	20.00	16.00	12.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.00	12.00
B	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	9.09	9.09	9.09	4.55	4.55	0.00	0.00	31.82	18.18
B-	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	0.00	4.17	4.17	0.00	4.17	0.00	25.00	4.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	54.17	0.00
CCC+	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	0.00	0.00	38.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.77	7.69
CCC	3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC-	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Original to last transition rates compare the issuer's rating from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 47  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign local-currency ratings one-year most recent transition matrices (2022)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	14.29	85.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	11.11	88.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	80.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	70.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	81.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	75.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	0.00	85.71	7.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	72.73	0.00	18.18	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	71.43	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	20.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 48

Sovereign local-currency ratings three-year most recent transition matrices (2020-2022)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	85.71	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	10.00	10.00	70.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.50	50.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	50.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	55.56	22.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	50.00	10.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	72.73	27.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	31.25	25.00	12.50	12.50	6.25	0.00	12.50	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	50.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	8.33
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 49

Sovereign local-currency ratings 10-year most recent transition matrices (2013-2022)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	78.57	14.29	7.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	14.29	28.57	14.29	14.29	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29
AA	0.00	0.00	80.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	11.11	11.11	33.33	33.33	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29	28.57	14.29	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.22	33.33	11.11	11.11	0.00	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29	28.57	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00	0.00	14.29	28.57	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	16.67	16.67	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.38	15.38	7.69	0.00	23.08	15.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.38	7.69
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	23.08	15.38	23.08	7.69	0.00	7.69	0.00	0.00	7.69
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	8.33	8.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	8.33	16.67	16.67
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	66.67	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 50  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign local-currency ratings original to last transition matrices
(%)	--Sovereign local-currency ratings original to last transition matrices--
From/to	Total	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	D
AAA	25	48.00	12.00	12.00	8.00	4.00	4.00	0.00	4.00	4.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	6	0.00	16.67	0.00	16.67	0.00	33.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
AA	7	0.00	0.00	42.86	14.29	28.57	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
A+	9	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	9.09	0.00	9.09	18.18	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09
BBB+	8	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BBB	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	42.86	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29
BB+	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	22.22	11.11	11.11	0.00	22.22	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	20.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	10.00
BB-	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	12.50
B+	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	9.09	4.55	18.18	18.18	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09
B	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.53	10.53	10.53	15.79	5.26	0.00	0.00	21.05
B-	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	41.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33
CCC+	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	28.57
CCC	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00
CCC-	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CC	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
Original to last transition rates compare the issuer's rating from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Cumulative default rates

Table 51

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17
A	0.00	0.02	0.43	0.90	1.38	1.90	2.43	3.00	3.59	4.21	4.86	5.54	6.00	6.47	7.16
BBB	0.15	0.77	1.41	2.06	2.55	3.03	3.46	3.94	4.53	5.18	5.87	6.64	7.78	9.04	9.99
BB	0.43	1.37	2.09	2.69	4.09	5.65	7.31	8.87	10.20	11.10	11.94	12.81	13.50	14.05	14.46
B	2.97	6.74	10.65	14.49	17.67	20.71	23.70	26.48	29.00	31.44	33.51	35.55	37.78	40.17	42.75
CCC/CC	32.20	40.91	45.58	47.43	50.15	55.80	60.71	62.85	62.85	64.09	67.21	68.78	69.40	69.40	69.40
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 52

Sovereign local-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers (1993-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.51	0.99	1.50	2.05	2.65
A	0.00	0.02	0.41	0.85	1.32	1.81	2.33	2.87	3.45	4.27	4.91	5.60	6.33	7.14	8.00
BBB	0.00	0.38	0.66	0.91	1.18	1.47	2.05	2.44	2.80	2.86	2.86	2.86	2.86	2.86	2.86
BB	0.59	1.21	1.59	1.93	2.48	3.29	4.09	5.07	5.99	6.74	7.56	8.46	9.46	10.34	10.98
B	1.57	3.05	4.57	5.87	7.06	8.17	9.30	10.52	11.84	13.11	13.96	14.84	15.86	17.29	18.78
CCC/CC	9.41	12.05	14.25	16.94	22.30	28.90	32.01	34.23	34.23	35.56	39.02	39.02	39.02	39.02	39.02
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 53

Foreign-currency 'A' static pools and default rates (1992-2022)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5	Y6	Y7	Y8	Y9	Y10	Y11	Y12	Y13	Y14	Y15
1/1/1992	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1993	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1994	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1995	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1996	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1997	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1998	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1999	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11
1/1/2000	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	18.18	18.18
1/1/2001	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	16.67	16.67	16.67
1/1/2002	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/2003	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.88	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76
1/1/2004	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	15.00
1/1/2005	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2006	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09
1/1/2007	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2008	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2009	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2010	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76
1/1/2011	21	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76
1/1/2012	15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2013	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2014	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2015	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2016	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2017	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	17	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2021	15	0.00	0.00
1/1/2022	17	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		0.00	0.00	0.22	0.69	1.17	1.68	2.22	2.78	3.38	3.99	4.63	5.31	6.04	6.44	7.30
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 54

Foreign-currency 'BBB' static pools and default rates (1992-2022)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5	Y6	Y7	Y8	Y9	Y10	Y11	Y12	Y13	Y14	Y15
1/1/1992	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1993	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67
1/1/1994	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/1995	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/1996	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1997	9	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11
1/1/1998	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	12.50
1/1/1999	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	12.50	12.50
1/1/2000	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2001	16	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2002	16	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2003	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2004	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2005	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69
1/1/2006	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	7.69
1/1/2007	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	7.69	7.69
1/1/2008	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	14.29
1/1/2009	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	11.76
1/1/2010	19	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	10.53	10.53	10.53	10.53	15.79
1/1/2011	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	10.00
1/1/2012	25	0.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	8.00	8.00	8.00	8.00	12.00
1/1/2013	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17
1/1/2014	27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.70
1/1/2015	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.85
1/1/2016	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2017	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00
1/1/2020	28	0.00	0.00	3.57
1/1/2021	28	0.00	3.57
1/1/2022	26	3.85
Cumulative default rate*		0.19	0.77	1.59	2.24	2.70	3.19	3.71	4.27	4.87	5.52	6.23	7.01	7.85	9.20	10.18
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 55

Foreign-currency 'BB' static pools and default rates (1992-2022)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5	Y6	Y7	Y8	Y9	Y10	Y11	Y12	Y13	Y14	Y15
1/1/1992	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1993	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1994	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33
1/1/1995	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1996	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00
1/1/1997	13	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	15.38	15.38	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77
1/1/1998	18	0.00	11.11	11.11	16.67	16.67	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22
1/1/1999	18	0.00	0.00	5.56	5.56	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11
1/1/2000	15	0.00	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67
1/1/2001	14	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/2002	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/2003	17	0.00	5.88	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	17.65
1/1/2004	17	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	11.76	11.76
1/1/2005	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	5.26
1/1/2006	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00
1/1/2007	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	13.64	13.64	13.64	13.64	13.64
1/1/2008	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04
1/1/2009	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2010	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2011	23	0.00	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04
1/1/2012	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	4.55	9.09	9.09	9.09
1/1/2013	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.85	7.69	7.69	11.54	11.54	11.54
1/1/2014	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	8.33	8.33	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/2015	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	5.00
1/1/2016	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	9.52
1/1/2017	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35
1/1/2018	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00
1/1/2019	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	18	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2021	17	0.00	0.00
1/1/2022	18	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		0.37	1.32	1.91	2.52	4.01	5.56	7.19	8.90	10.19	11.02	11.61	12.24	12.92	13.67	14.08
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 56

Foreign-currency 'B' static pools and default rates (1995-2022)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5	Y6	Y7	Y8	Y9	Y10	Y11	Y12	Y13	Y14	Y15
1/1/1995	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1996	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00
1/1/1997	4	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1998	5	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00
1/1/1999	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2000	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2001	19	0.00	5.26	10.53	10.53	21.05	21.05	21.05	26.32	26.32	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58
1/1/2002	15	0.00	6.67	6.67	13.33	13.33	13.33	13.33	13.33	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	26.67	26.67
1/1/2003	16	12.50	12.50	12.50	18.75	18.75	18.75	18.75	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	31.25	31.25	31.25
1/1/2004	19	0.00	5.26	10.53	10.53	10.53	10.53	15.79	15.79	15.79	15.79	15.79	21.05	21.05	21.05	21.05
1/1/2005	21	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	14.29	14.29	19.05	19.05	19.05	23.81	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2006	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	17.39	17.39	21.74	26.09	26.09	26.09	34.78
1/1/2007	25	0.00	4.00	4.00	8.00	8.00	16.00	16.00	20.00	20.00	24.00	24.00	24.00	24.00	32.00	32.00
1/1/2008	29	6.90	6.90	10.34	10.34	20.69	20.69	24.14	24.14	27.59	27.59	27.59	27.59	34.48	34.48	44.83
1/1/2009	29	0.00	3.45	3.45	10.34	10.34	13.79	17.24	20.69	20.69	20.69	20.69	27.59	27.59	37.93
1/1/2010	28	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	10.71	10.71	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	21.43	21.43	32.14
1/1/2011	33	0.00	6.06	9.09	12.12	15.15	18.18	18.18	18.18	18.18	27.27	27.27	36.36
1/1/2012	33	6.06	9.09	12.12	15.15	18.18	21.21	21.21	21.21	30.30	30.30	39.39
1/1/2013	31	3.23	6.45	9.68	12.90	16.13	16.13	16.13	25.81	25.81	35.48
1/1/2014	33	0.00	3.03	9.09	15.15	15.15	15.15	24.24	24.24	33.33
1/1/2015	35	0.00	5.71	11.43	14.29	14.29	22.86	22.86	31.43
1/1/2016	39	5.13	10.26	12.82	12.82	20.51	20.51	30.77
1/1/2017	39	5.13	7.69	10.26	20.51	20.51	30.77
1/1/2018	36	0.00	2.78	16.67	16.67	27.78
1/1/2019	41	2.44	14.63	14.63	24.39
1/1/2020	39	7.69	7.69	17.95
1/1/2021	36	0.00	8.33
1/1/2022	39	7.69
Cumulative default rate*		2.72	6.65	10.48	14.03	17.27	20.14	23.20	26.06	28.43	30.73	33.22	35.62	37.63	39.85	42.4
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 57

Foreign-currency 'CCC'/'CC' static pools and default rates (1999-2022)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5	Y6	Y7	Y8	Y9	Y10	Y11	Y12	Y13	Y14	Y15
1/1/1999	4	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00
1/1/2000	2	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2001	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2002	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2003	4	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2004	2	0.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2005	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2006	3	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2007	1	0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2008	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2009	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2010	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2011	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2012	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2013	2	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2014	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2015	2	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2016	2	0.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2017	3	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2018	4	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/2019	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	5	60.00	60.00	60.00
1/1/2021	8	12.50	25.00
1/1/2022	8	12.50
Cumulative default rate*		34.38	41.88	48.85	51.41	54.11	60.66	63.94	63.94	63.94	63.94	67.55	67.55	67.55	67.55	67.55
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 58

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rate with rating modifiers (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.79
A+	0.00	0.00	0.37	1.28	2.28	2.45	2.45	3.41	4.28	4.28	4.28	4.28	4.28	5.18	6.29
A	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.74	1.36	2.52	3.81	4.64	5.55	6.97	8.38	9.16	10.02	10.47	10.47
A-	0.00	0.05	0.74	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.87	1.89	2.16	2.35	3.58
BBB+	0.00	0.30	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.42	1.77	3.26	4.88	6.63	9.44	11.51
BBB	0.00	0.54	1.22	1.89	1.89	1.89	1.89	2.18	4.00	5.00	6.10	7.30	9.56	10.34	10.34
BBB-	0.36	1.23	2.18	3.23	4.37	5.48	6.47	7.36	7.36	7.36	7.36	7.36	7.36	8.13	9.22
BB+	0.23	1.34	1.34	1.34	2.29	3.86	5.50	6.65	8.42	9.56	10.51	11.52	12.57	13.71	14.98
BB	0.09	0.67	1.26	1.87	2.23	2.77	3.51	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.30	5.19	6.17	6.69	6.69
BB-	0.84	1.96	3.29	4.31	6.98	9.46	12.01	14.77	17.06	18.69	20.21	20.96	20.96	20.96	20.96
B+	0.61	2.08	3.73	6.57	9.08	12.34	15.92	19.65	21.57	23.86	26.07	28.08	30.39	33.60	38.05
B	2.61	6.44	11.75	16.18	19.58	21.36	23.27	25.23	27.85	30.68	32.61	35.50	38.35	40.04	40.04
B-	7.23	14.65	19.99	24.56	28.54	33.35	37.16	39.72	43.23	45.34	47.45	48.20	49.35	51.47	54.58
CCC+	17.14	21.17	25.60	28.32	32.35	40.86	48.25	51.47	51.47	53.39	58.19	60.60	61.56	61.56	61.56
CCC	43.40	71.78	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18	81.18
CCC-	84.78	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83
CC	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment grade	0.04	0.20	0.45	0.71	0.94	1.17	1.39	1.62	1.88	2.16	2.45	2.75	3.08	3.42	3.78
Speculative grade	3.35	6.13	8.67	11.00	13.35	15.79	18.22	20.39	22.26	23.91	25.42	26.87	28.28	29.66	31.04
All rated	1.29	2.44	3.54	4.57	5.58	6.61	7.62	8.55	9.37	10.13	10.84	11.52	12.20	12.87	13.55
Default rates conditional on survival. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 59  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rate with rating modifiers (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (months)--
Rating	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10	M11	M12	M13	M14	M15	M16	M17	M18	M19
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.21
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.07	0.11	0.14	0.18	0.22	0.25	0.29	0.32	0.36	0.40	0.44	0.47	0.58	0.70	0.77	0.85
BB+	0.00	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.11	0.23	0.40	0.58	0.81	0.93	1.05	1.11	1.17
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.14	0.19	0.24	0.29	0.33	0.38	0.43
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.08	0.11	0.15	0.23	0.34	0.50	0.69	0.84	0.92	1.00	1.08	1.16	1.23	1.31	1.39
B+	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.16	0.25	0.32	0.41	0.51	0.61	0.71	0.80	0.90	1.00	1.13	1.27	1.44
B	0.10	0.19	0.29	0.45	0.68	0.94	1.23	1.52	1.82	2.08	2.34	2.61	2.94	3.27	3.57	3.87	4.17	4.47	4.74
B-	0.29	0.82	1.30	1.84	2.48	3.17	3.87	4.52	5.23	5.84	6.51	7.23	7.81	8.33	8.97	9.66	10.35	11.05	11.65
CCC+	1.10	2.59	4.29	6.20	7.93	9.49	10.87	12.27	13.87	15.29	16.32	17.14	17.98	18.62	19.05	19.27	19.27	19.27	19.50
CCC	4.94	11.15	18.03	24.39	29.56	32.85	35.54	38.28	38.98	40.42	41.89	43.40	45.72	48.92	51.35	53.82	56.34	58.91	62.41
CCC-	19.57	32.61	45.65	54.35	58.70	65.22	69.57	73.91	78.26	80.43	82.61	84.78	86.96	89.13	91.30	93.48	95.65	97.83	97.83
CC	30.91	49.09	63.64	76.36	83.64	87.27	90.91	92.73	94.55	96.36	98.18	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.08	0.09	0.11
Speculative grade	0.31	0.62	0.92	1.23	1.51	1.78	2.05	2.32	2.58	2.84	3.09	3.35	3.60	3.85	4.09	4.33	4.56	4.79	5.02
All rated	0.12	0.23	0.35	0.47	0.58	0.69	0.79	0.89	1.00	1.09	1.19	1.29	1.39	1.49	1.58	1.68	1.77	1.87	1.96
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 60

Sovereign local-currency cumulative average default rate with rating modifiers (1993-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.91
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.71	1.58
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	1.46	2.85	4.35	5.14	5.14
A+	0.00	0.00	0.28	0.98	1.72	1.85	1.85	2.50	3.54	4.29	4.29	4.29	4.29	4.29	5.58
A	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.81	1.50	2.80	4.28	5.24	5.93	6.82	7.68	7.68	7.68	7.68	7.68
A-	0.00	0.05	0.72	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	1.58	2.72	4.94	7.28	9.78	10.99
BBB+	0.00	0.26	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.49	1.33	1.48	1.48	1.48	1.48	1.48	1.48
BBB	0.00	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20
BBB-	0.00	0.65	1.34	2.08	2.88	3.74	5.58	6.64	6.64	6.64	6.64	6.64	6.64	6.64	6.64
BB+	0.18	1.07	1.07	1.07	1.27	2.09	2.16	2.24	3.18	4.14	5.16	6.28	7.52	8.93	10.55
BB	1.24	1.59	1.59	1.59	1.59	1.59	2.43	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.50
BB-	0.47	1.07	2.01	2.91	4.16	5.58	7.05	8.85	10.48	11.63	12.96	14.49	16.28	17.45	17.45
B+	0.47	1.37	1.54	1.54	2.24	2.81	3.15	3.15	3.43	4.34	4.50	5.74	8.01	10.57	13.70
B	1.04	1.96	3.92	6.21	7.63	8.92	10.27	12.17	13.89	14.72	15.80	16.81	17.38	17.92	18.76
B-	3.79	6.88	9.60	11.13	12.69	14.35	16.46	18.53	20.99	24.10	25.80	25.80	25.80	27.28	27.72
CCC+	3.51	5.37	8.80	12.85	20.85	30.57	34.91	37.91	37.91	39.78	44.75	44.75	44.75	44.75	44.75
CCC	18.97	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74	26.74
CCC-	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	7.45	N/A
CC	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05	26.05
Investment grade	0.00	0.10	0.27	0.45	0.63	0.83	1.10	1.33	1.56	1.81	2.07	2.35	2.65	2.97	3.32
Speculative grade	1.66	2.86	3.94	4.90	6.00	7.21	8.28	9.43	10.51	11.54	12.49	13.33	14.28	15.36	16.34
All rated	0.62	1.12	1.62	2.08	2.59	3.14	3.68	4.22	4.73	5.23	5.70	6.15	6.64	7.18	7.69
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. N/A--Not applicable. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 61

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers: Middle East and Africa (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	N.A.	N.A.	N.A	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	1.73	3.81	6.06	8.08	10.30	12.72	15.38	18.33	21.60	24.81	27.85	30.53	33.05	36.31	40.18
CCC/CC	13.40	14.50	14.50	14.50	14.50	14.50	14.50	14.50	14.50	14.50	14.50	32.31	39.43	39.43	39.43
Investment grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Speculative grade	1.99	3.57	5.21	6.68	8.27	9.99	11.85	13.85	16.03	18.13	20.06	22.01	23.59	25.37	27.39
All rated	1.18	2.10	3.05	3.89	4.78	5.73	6.75	7.84	9.02	10.17	11.21	12.26	13.11	14.05	15.11
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available, there are no observations for this horizon. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 62

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers--Latin America (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60	4.55
BBB	0.00	0.53	1.28	2.09	2.97	3.93	4.99	6.16	7.49	9.03	10.81	12.88	15.32	17.65	17.65
BB	0.25	1.04	2.42	3.99	7.22	10.75	14.50	17.92	20.68	22.23	24.01	26.03	27.57	28.78	29.63
B	6.47	14.34	22.66	30.49	35.37	39.83	43.57	47.48	50.85	53.84	55.22	56.32	57.90	59.48	61.81
CCC/CC	38.55	54.36	64.51	68.18	73.49	79.58	85.71	89.79	89.79	92.67	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment grade	0.00	0.32	0.77	1.24	1.74	2.28	2.85	3.48	4.16	4.92	5.76	6.70	7.75	8.92	10.24
Speculative grade	5.21	9.90	14.72	19.07	23.10	27.16	31.02	34.70	37.58	39.79	41.61	43.12	44.59	45.87	47.25
All rated	3.24	6.29	9.47	12.39	15.14	17.94	20.66	23.31	25.50	27.29	28.85	30.25	31.66	32.97	34.40
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 63

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers--Asia-Pacific (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.96	2.30	3.72	5.23	6.83	7.96	7.96	7.96	7.96	7.96	7.96	7.96	7.96	7.96
BB	0.00	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09
B	0.62	2.60	4.36	6.19	7.31	8.32	9.40	10.54	11.76	13.08	14.51	16.05	17.72	19.53	21.48
CCC/CC	68.92	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68	75.68
Investment grade	0.00	0.19	0.46	0.73	1.01	1.31	1.51	1.51	1.51	1.51	1.51	1.51	1.51	1.51	1.51
Speculative grade	2.23	3.53	4.48	5.47	6.07	6.60	7.16	7.75	8.36	9.02	9.73	10.50	11.34	12.27	13.29
All rated	0.79	1.38	1.89	2.42	2.81	3.19	3.52	3.73	3.94	4.17	4.40	4.65	4.92	5.20	5.50
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 64

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers--Central and Eastern Europe and CIS (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.57	1.27	1.99	2.74	2.87	2.87	2.87	3.52	4.41	5.34	6.32	7.35	8.45	9.62	10.88
BB	0.36	1.11	1.30	1.30	2.00	2.89	3.85	4.88	6.00	7.23	7.67	7.67	7.67	7.67	7.67
B	1.51	3.99	7.36	10.94	14.77	18.15	21.36	23.24	24.83	26.49	29.40	33.10	37.13	40.92	43.22
CCC/CC	54.19	71.64	71.64	71.64	71.64	84.73	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment grade	0.30	0.67	1.06	1.47	1.54	1.54	1.54	1.91	2.43	2.98	3.57	4.19	4.86	5.58	6.36
Speculative grade	1.71	3.43	4.89	6.31	8.22	10.33	12.48	13.84	15.13	16.52	18.04	19.71	21.57	23.39	24.55
All rated	0.95	1.95	2.84	3.72	4.64	5.61	6.59	7.40	8.27	9.19	10.18	11.24	12.40	13.56	14.48
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. CIS--Commonwealth of Independent States. N.A.--Not available, there are no observations for this horizon. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 65

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers--Eurozone (1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42
A	0.00	0.06	1.51	3.15	4.90	6.75	8.72	10.79	12.99	15.26	17.62	20.10	21.77	23.24	24.16
BBB	0.00	0.90	1.13	1.13	1.13	1.13	1.13	1.13	1.13	1.13	1.13	1.13	3.07	5.73	8.48
BB	2.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73	8.73
B	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
CCC/CC	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Investment grade	0.00	0.13	0.49	0.85	1.23	1.63	2.03	2.45	2.89	3.34	3.81	4.30	4.80	5.33	5.89
Speculative grade	7.89	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82	11.82
All rated	0.41	0.74	1.07	1.42	1.78	2.16	2.55	2.95	3.37	3.81	4.26	4.74	5.24	5.76	6.30
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N/A--Not applicable, there are no observations for this horizon. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 66

Sovereign foreign-currency cumulative average default rates without rating modifiers--Emerging and frontier markets(1975-2022)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.87
BBB	0.19	0.80	1.56	2.37	2.99	3.60	4.13	4.73	5.47	6.26	7.12	8.05	9.05	10.04	10.63
BB	0.35	1.09	1.86	2.49	3.98	5.64	7.39	9.04	10.46	11.40	12.29	13.21	13.94	14.52	14.95
B	3.07	7.08	11.40	15.58	18.90	22.05	25.13	27.99	30.75	33.40	35.65	37.85	40.26	42.87	45.65
CCC/CC	34.89	45.49	51.29	53.60	57.18	65.17	72.14	75.07	75.07	76.84	81.30	83.52	84.41	84.41	84.41
Investment grade	0.09	0.39	0.76	1.14	1.43	1.71	1.96	2.24	2.58	2.94	3.33	3.75	4.20	4.70	5.24
Speculative grade	3.33	6.17	8.94	11.44	13.91	16.46	18.99	21.25	23.27	25.05	26.68	28.25	29.76	31.24	32.73
All rated	1.94	3.69	5.42	7.01	8.53	10.10	11.64	13.04	14.32	15.49	16.58	17.65	18.70	19.75	20.82
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

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Credit Research & Insights:	Luca Rossi, Paris +33 6 2518 9258; luca.rossi@spglobal.com
	Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698; nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
	Evan M Gunter, Montgomery + 1 (212) 438 6412; evan.gunter@spglobal.com