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Outlook For Global Not-For-Profit Higher Education: Credit Quality Continues To Diverge

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Outlook For Global Not-For-Profit Higher Education: Credit Quality Continues To Diverge

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Chart 1

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Our View Is Informed By A Growing Divide In Credit Quality

The college and university sector has experienced financial tailwinds from unprecedented federal emergency relief funds, but these funds have mostly been exhausted entering calendar 2023, likely creating operating pressures for many schools. Student enrollment has not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels uniformly across the sector, and many schools continue to face enrollment pressures. At the same time, wage and general expense inflation will continue to be an economic challenge for most higher education providers while revenue recovery, even with tuition increases, is likely not enough to fully offset expense growth. Some relief is provided by unrestricted reserves from balance sheet growth in fiscal 2021 and overall investments that remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels. However, investment markets in 2022 were languid and with recession fears growing for 2023, investment returns are projected to be modest at best, adding to cash flow pressure.

Outlooks and rating actions point to divergence in 2023 by credit quality

S&P Global Ratings begins the year with 43 schools (about 10% of ratings) on negative outlook, though primarily at the lower end of the ratings scale, with more than half of these rated 'BBB+' and below. Over the last year, while we've seen a return to a more "normal" or pre-pandemic distribution of stable outlooks (86%) across the rated higher education sector, we've also seen rating downgrades primarily affecting the lower investment grade and speculative grade credits with a very limited number of downgrades at the higher end of the rating scale. At the same time, we have seen more positive outlook revisions (17 in 2022) and upgrades at the higher end of the ratings scale, including the upgrade of Vanderbilt University to 'AAA' from 'AA+'. We expect this trend will continue through 2023.

Our expectations for 2023

Based on our conversations with management teams, we expect fiscal 2023 operating margin performance will be weaker than in fiscal 2022 given increasing costs, including salary and merit increases, as well as rising financial aid and scholarships. In particular, schools with academic medical centers face higher wages and growing expenses to combat staffing shortages that are likely to continue in 2023. At the same time, one-time emergency federal funds, which buoyed fiscal 2022 results, have mostly been spent, fundraising has slowed, and net tuition revenue growth has been weak, so revenues are not likely to keep pace with inflation. Investment market volatility remains a question mark with significant swings in gains and losses seen in fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022, making it hard to accurately predict effects on operating budgets, resulting in more variability, and in some cases cautiousness, about endowment drawdowns.

A continued bifurcation in credit quality means disparate degrees of risk

Highly selective institutions with significant financial flexibility.  Although we see greater economic challenges in 2023, we expect higher rated institutions with uninterrupted solid demand will maintain their creditworthiness as they continue to do well, generating cash flow and positive operating margins, thus sustaining their healthy balance sheets. In our opinion, many of these schools have pricing flexibility as their demand is inelastic, and room within their ratings to withstand a certain amount of pressure depending on other aspects of their enterprise and financial profiles.

Non-selective institutions with weak balance sheets.  We expect increased credit stress in 2023 at the lower end of rated credits. Much will depend on an institution's enterprise strength and performance and strategic improvement initiatives. Liquidity and bond covenant challenges could grow for weaker institutions as expense growth is unlikely to be unmatched by revenue growth, which could cause rating stress, particularly if breached covenants lead to collateral posting or acceleration of debt.

Mid-range institutions.  Some rated issuers might have strong demand, but a weak balance sheet, while others might have declining enrollment and demand but a strong balance sheet providing cushion; their trajectory could go either way.

Chart 2

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Sector Top Trends In 2023

Mixed enrollment trends across the sector, affecting revenues

Amid rising tuition and the growing debate over the value of a college education, uncertainty around demand and enrollment levels remains, making revenues more difficult to predict. Post -pandemic effects on enrollment continue to vary widely across the sector, depending on the type of school, location, and overall credit quality.

  • For highly selective institutions with strong reputations and brands, applications have never been higher, nor have acceptance rates ever been lower. (For more information on recent changes in demand metrics, see "Advancing Or Adapting: The State Of Play In U.S. Higher Education," published Nov. 29, 2022, on RatingsDirect.)
  • However, smaller and lesser-known colleges and universities are finding it more and more difficult to compete for students, who are placing more weight on tuition price and return on investment in their decision-making process.

Preliminary National Student Clearinghouse data indicates a 0.9% drop in private university enrollment and a 1.6% drop in public university enrollment for fall 2022, but this follows a couple of years of significant declines. It will take some time for smaller classes to work their way through to graduation. While international enrollment has rebounded, it is still not close to pre-pandemic highs.

Changing demographics will shrink the possible applicant pool

U.S. demographics are shifting; the number of high school graduates is flat, and in some cases declining, because of lower birth rates. This trend is expected to continue, with a big drop-off or "cliff" expected in the mid-2020s. As a consequence, schools struggling with enrollment are likely to face continued declines longer term.

Chart 3

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Impact of a potential recession

Our chief U.S. economist has forecast that the economy will fall into a shallow recession in 2023, tempered by moderate initial jobless claims and unemployment rates (see "Economic Outlook Sees The U.S. Tipping Toward Recession," Nov. 28, 2022). Rising consumer prices and interest rates are whittling discretionary income, which could affect school choices, depressing revenues at some. College and university expenses are among those that are rising. Further, investment markets could continue to move sideways, potentially resulting in more pressure to credit quality as reduced cash flow and possibly slower fundraising could slow growth in unrestricted reserves. But even if recessionary and inflationary pressures outpace revenue strengths, we believe historically strong balance sheets coupled with active management to control costs will allow higher rated institutions to weather a short and shallow recession. For public universities, state operating appropriations have been stable to growing, but history shows that, should states squeeze their budgets in 2023, reductions to higher education funding will likely follow.

Operating margin compression is likely in 2023--but not for all

Despite a return to "normal" for on-campus instruction and housing in fall 2022, enrollment and net tuition and auxiliary revenues are not yet back at pre-pandemic levels for many institutions. At the same time, inflation, rising expenses, and labor shortages will likely affect school budgets with less financial flexibility, just as additional federal relief funds dry up. To offset enrollment declines and tuition and auxiliary revenue deterioration during the pandemic, institutions undertook significant expense-cutting measures including furloughs and layoffs. Many of these initiatives were nonrecurring, such as temporary reduction or elimination of pension contributions for the year, while others are more sustainable. In the absence of federal emergency funds, we expect many of these controls to remain in place as managements continue to focus on expenses. Following operating surpluses in fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022, aided by federal monies, we expect to see operating deficits at the lower end of the ratings scale in fiscal 2023.

Academic medical centers face labor shortages and higher wages

Most academic medical centers provide high acuity and essential care, and are being forced to rely more on high-cost temporary nurses to fill staffing slots, which drives up expenses. The availability of labor and labor-related expenses remain the biggest challenge for health care entities, and while we have seen some improvement, labor costs remain stubbornly high relative to pre-pandemic levels. These labor pressures, while not accelerating, are also not improving at the rate initially expected and will likely be one of the biggest factors impeding cash flow and margins in 2023 and beyond for health care entities. Even as temporary labor costs begin to show decline, providers have increased pay and enhanced benefit packages that will long remain part of the expense base. (For more information, see "Outlook For U.S. Not-For-Profit Acute Health Care: A Long Road Ahead," published Dec. 1, 2022, in which we revised our sector view to negative.)

Extraordinary federal support is almost gone

With COVID-19 stimulus funds and other related reimbursement coming to an end, we don't expect additional material support to colleges and universities in 2023 despite ongoing budgetary pressures. While we understand some schools are still seeking cost reimbursements from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the amounts and timing will vary and remain somewhat uncertain. Many schools were able to make it through the pandemic with the aid of these much-needed funds, but for many weaker institutions, as this emergency support rolls off, revenue instability and operating risks will resume.

Role of the balance sheet for maintaining credit stability

The significant improvement in balance sheet reserves in 2021 helped support credit quality despite declines in the investment markets in 2022; reserves are generally still at absolute levels consistent with, or above, pre-pandemic 2019 levels. While positive market returns could help improve balance sheet flexibility, we expect many management teams will be focused on preserving reserves at current levels to maintain balance sheet flexibility due to concerns about likely weaker cash flow and capital spending needs. For those that are on reasonably sound credit footing, we expect capital spending will not be entirely tempered, but that most will likely moderate capital spending as cash flow generation is less robust. Over the next year, the strength of the balance sheet will continue to play a key role in credit stability given the uneven operating performance that we expect.

Chart 4

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Chart 5

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Consolidation and closure

Higher education consolidations, both programmatic and school, wide, are on the rise, driven by demographic shifts away from traditionally aged students, especially outside urban areas, as well as financial challenges exacerbated by the pandemic. While school closures have slowed during the past few years, we expect to see an acceleration over the next few years, particularly of very small, or unaccredited institutions, once the federal funding bandage is removed. Struggling institutions with valuable real estate, brand, or institutional core competencies will likely have an easier time securing an affiliation or merger, while it may be more difficult for others--and those are the ones more likely to close.

Asset monetizations

We have seen more schools consider monetizing non-core assets by selling land, buildings, or other assets such as works of art and intellectual property as a short-term solution for financial flexibility. Schools with valuable property and land have more options than those without.

Enrollment strategies to generate revenue growth remain varied

To alleviate some of the pressure for undergraduate students, senior leaders are changing enrollment strategies to diversify revenues. A greater emphasis is being placed on the recruitment of graduate, non-traditional, and online students. More institutions are introducing masters and doctorate programs in highly sought-after industries such as health and technology and certificate programs are being used in hopes of recruiting more corporate employees. Institutions hope that this change in recruiting will allow for some reprieve from lower undergraduate revenue but the success of these strategies will likely take a few years to see.

Hybrid learning is here to stay

One of the main takeaways from the pandemic is that some form of remote classes is desirable. It is clear that this type of flexibility remains a key priority for university students. The fall 2022 rebound in applications and housing occupancy, however, demonstrates the value students place on the in-person experience. Most schools have sought to invest in graduate or certificate programs for their online expansions rather than standard undergraduate coursework. But although online learning is becoming more fully integrated into the higher education landscape, schools will need to invest further in it.

High management turnover

While many universities are accustomed to a periodic change in leadership, we have seen and expect to keep seeing an increase in the rate of leadership turnover at colleges and universities due to a combination of the usual rotations and retirements, strategic plans requiring different leadership skills, and an increasing number of demands for resignation. We do not view management turnover in and of itself a negative credit factor; in fact, we view positively an institution's ability to make adjustments quickly where needed. However, frequent and repeated changes in leadership may limit the ability to implement strategic plans and could indicate larger institutional challenges, which we would view negatively.

Chart 6

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Cyber security costs are on the rise

Further contributing to margin compression expected for 2023 are rising costs associated with maintaining adequate security to thwart the growing number of attacks on data rich colleges and universities. With chief information officer salaries climbing rapidly, schools are investing more in personnel, software and hardware security, upgrades, and training for administration, faculty, staff, and students. In addition, cyber security insurance premiums are known to have increased, in some cases in triple digits, recently. (For more information on cyber risk for higher education, see "Cyber Risk In A New Era: U.S. Colleges And Universities Go Back To School On Cyber Security Preparedness," Sept. 29, 2022.)

Community colleges continue to face enrollment stress

Historically, enrollments in two-year programs grow significantly in a recession, yet during the pandemic that was not the case. The sudden stop-start nature of the economy, cutbacks in course offerings, and overall health and safety concerns, resulted in material declines in community college enrollment in fall 2020, which continued into fall 2021. While there was some rebound in fall 2022, levels have not yet returned to pre-pandemic enrollment, and lower community college enrollment also reduces the transfer enrollments at four-year colleges and universities.

Privatized student housing sees signs of improvement

After a period of unprecedented pressures and related rating actions, most privatized student housing projects started to find stable ground in 2022 with improved demand and the lifting of de-densification requirements at the associated higher education institutions.

  • A large proportion of student housing projects utilized some form of support to meet their debt service requirements during the pandemic. Subsequently, certain housing projects that received support from the associated university are facing the expectation of repayment in the near term.
  • Among institutions that drew reserve funds for support in 2020 and 2021, some have requirements to replenish these reserves, while others are left with a slimmer financial cushion to support operations.
  • Similar to the universities or colleges they support, these projects are not immune to the ongoing inflationary pressures. This will present financial challenges for the sector in 2023, especially given it's been just two years since a period of financial distress.
  • Limited contributions to repair and replacement funds in the last two years will also present maintenance challenges to older housing facilities.

Despite these challenges, a return to pre-pandemic occupancy levels is a big win for the sector, allowing projects to control their financial operations to a much higher degree in 2023 than the last two years. (For a detailed update of the privatized student housing sector, see "U.S. Privatized Student Housing Occupancy Rebounds; Ratings Will Take Longer To Recover As Projects Recoup Losses" Oct. 17, 2022.)

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How Credit Quality May Be Affected

Why is the sector view not negative?

Most college and universities enter 2023 with good financial flexibility and reserves; 86% of our rated universe maintains a stable outlook. Enrollments appear to be on the mend, and for public universities, no state budget cuts have been suggested to address any expected revenue shortfalls. While market volatility and rising expenses are expected, the recession that is forecast in our baseline is projected to be shallow, and overall, the credit position for higher education is mixed, depending on credit quality.

Not all credits will experience operating stress

Many higher education institutions were already facing operational and financial challenges before the pandemic, and COVID-19 has only accelerated these pressures. However, our rated universe represents a disparate community and higher-rated schools with strong demand profiles are doing fine, relatively speaking. Institutions in a weak position relative to competition and balance-sheet strength face greater pressure and will continue to struggle.

Individualized approach

Since we expect varying degrees of operating pressure, we could see increased use of our unfavorable negative outlooks and for those that are deteriorating rapidly and at the weaker end of their rating, possible downgrades--but we only expect this at the lower end of ratings. Given that the sector's challenges are not all widespread, we could also see favorable outlooks or ratings upgrades, most likely at the other end of the ratings scale. Over time and depending on the level of pressure in the sector and taking account of any offsetting factors, we may see more credits than in the past resting at new ratings.

U.S. Higher Education Ratings Performance

As of Dec. 31, 2022, S&P Global Ratings had 444 public ratings on U.S. private (298) and public (146) colleges and universities which are secured by a general obligation or the equivalent. Approximately 28% of our rated universe resides in the BBB rating category and 7% of our rated universe reside in the speculative grade category; this compares to a much smaller percentage of institutions rated non-investment grade a few years ago. Both the lower investment grade ('BBB') rating category and non-investment grade categories ('BB+' and below) continue to grow as more institutions have been increasingly challenged by enrollment and operating pressures.

Chart 8

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Chart 9

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Chart 10

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Within our private university ratings, approximately 77% are rated 'BBB+' or below. This compares to nearly 47% of public university ratings falling in the 'A' rating category, and only 12% rated 'BBB+' or below. During 2022, we lowered 21 ratings, raised 15 ratings and added 11 new public ratings.

The higher education sector, especially the rated universe, has experienced general resiliency and credit stability over time, benefiting from fundraising capabilities and endowments providing balance sheet cushions. However, while this, coupled with federal emergency funds, provided most schools with some financial flexibility, as these funds run out, more might need to dip into their reserves. The rated universe is self-selecting and may be stronger than the industry as a whole; through the past recessions and challenges, most of our rated credits were able to make their debt payments on time and in full, such that there have been only been three payment defaults (failure to make payment of principal and interest as scheduled, per S&P Global Ratings' definition) within the sector--all of them private institutions. Despite the uncertainties facing the sector, we do not expect to see much change to this table of defaults.

Table 1

U.S. Higher Education Defaulted Issuers
Obligor State Default date Next-to-last rating Initial rating
Bradford College MA Nov. 2, 2000 CCC BBB-
Thomas Jefferson School of Law CA Nov. 5, 2014 CC BB+
Dowling College NY Aug. 7, 2015 B- BBB

Chart 11

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Chart 12

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Sector View Is Driven By Expectation That Non-U.S. Universities Are Well-Positioned To Face Material Operating Pressures

We believe that continued rating stability depends to a large degree on the ability of management teams to react nimbly to multi-faceted challenges. Material uncertainties surround university revenue sources, while cost pressures are likely to remain elevated in the near-term. Government funding is expected to remain constrained and competition for lucrative international students will remain tight. However, in our view, rated institutions generally reacted promptly and prudently to the hugely disruptive impacts of the pandemic and successfully mitigated the effects on their credit profiles. While downside risks loom in 2023, we believe that rated institutions are well-positioned to meet them.

Outlook revisions indicate stabilizing credit profiles

Further supporting our sector view is the fact that all outlook revisions in the past year have been favorable and all rated universities outside the U.S. carry stable (91%) or positive (9%) outlooks. In January 2022, we revised the outlook on King's College London in the U.K. to stable from negative on stronger financial performance. In March, we revised the outlook on the Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon in Mexico to positive from stable, reflecting an improved financial risk profile. In June and July, we revised the outlooks on two Australian universities--the University of Wollongong and the University of New South Wales--to stable from negative, reflecting diminishing pandemic-related risks and a reduced debt burden, respectively. Also, in June, we revised the outlook on the University of Sheffield to positive from stable, reflecting strong student demand, budgetary performance, and liquidity headroom. Our ratings and stable outlooks on all eight rated Canadian universities are unchanged in the past 12 months.

In addition, in April 2022, we assigned an 'A' issuer credit rating, with a stable outlook, to Keele University in the U.K., and in December we assigned an 'A-' issuer credit rating, with a stable outlook, to the Université du Québec à Montréal in Canada, and a 'AA-' issuer credit rating, with a stable outlook, to La Trobe University in Australia.

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Sector Top Trends In 2023

Domestic demand and solid balance sheets will help Canadian universities maintain stable credit profiles

On the whole, domestic demand at rated Canadian universities has proved resilient throughout the pandemic, helping to sustain tuition and grant revenue as ancillary revenue-generating units recover and offsetting a moderate drop in international students. Although not expected to recur in the medium term, unusually strong investment returns in fiscal 2021 helped to buttress university balance sheets and liquidity levels. Inflationary cost pressures and largely flat government operating grants will continue to lead universities to lean on international student tuition to drive incremental revenue growth. However, we believe that accommodating federal policies will ensure that Canada remains an attractive destination for international students, and we expect stable enrollment trends in the next several years.

We expect the creditworthiness of rated universities in Canada will remain stable in 2023, but this will largely rely on management teams continuing to take a cautious approach to enrollment and revenue targets and demonstrating expenditure constraint in the face of market uncertainties and the absence of material additional support from the federal or provincial governments.

Australian universities enter 2023 in a solid position but remain exposed to international students

The Australian university sector generally outperformed expectations in fiscal 2021, with strong surpluses driven by high investment returns, coupled with significant job cuts and scaled back capital investment. Financial resources have also been boosted by one-off events including commercial property sales and the distribution of dividends and shares from winding up Education Australia Ltd. (a multibillion-dollar business jointly owned by 38 public universities), helping to offset increased leverage at some rated universities.

International students have been gradually returning since the border reopened at the end of 2021 after nearly two years of closure, although we expect it will take several years for international student enrollment to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Australian universities remain more exposed to the international student market than their Canadian and U.K. peers. China's COVID-zero policy and prohibitively expensive flights have hindered the return of students from China, Australia's most important source market. However, recent moves by the federal government to expand post-study work rights and allocate more resources to processing a backlog of visas should help a rebound in 2023.

Inflationary pressures will squeeze U.K. universities' operating margins but better-than expected performance in the last two years will provide some financial flexibility

We forecast the continued cap on domestic undergraduate tuition fees at £9,250 per year (until the 2024-25 academic year) and unindexed government grants to result in a sector-wide revenue decline in real terms. This, combined with cost inflation related to staff pay and utilities, will put to test universities' available flexibility. Further, we think that disputes around pay, pension and staff working conditions which have resulted in frequent strike actions, could also pose a reputational risk and disrupt the delivery of education services.

With revenues expected to grow slower than inflation, universities are significantly increasing their already high reliance on international students, who pay higher unregulated fees in comparison to domestic students. In our view this could pose a longer-term risk, especially if the U.K. government were to impose immigrant laws restricting the inflow of foreign students into the country. Additionally, a sustained period of underinvestment in research and grants to the higher education sector could begin to slowly erode the sector's reputation compared with international peers, especially after Brexit.

Prudent financial management will be key to Mexican universities maintaining margins

The revenues of the three rated Mexican public universities are highly reliant on federal and state transfers, which account for 80% of their total income on average, and we believe that the sector will be challenged as no additional grants are expected to offset increasing domestic demand or to provide financial relief. In our view, the quality of medium-term planning and capacity to contain expenditures will be critical to avoid further slippages in financial performance. The ability to weather a difficult financial environment, including high inflation and stagnated government transfers, varies among these universities and will have different results on their creditworthiness.

Enrollment growth is expected to remain solid as Mexican public universities have become an affordable option for students who were in private universities before the pandemic. However, no additional grants are expected to help alleviate the cost pressure from rising demand. In addition, a federal initiative to remove tuition fees at Mexican states' public universities is still evolving, including any potential compensatory mechanisms, and we will continue to monitor the credit implications of such a move.

How Will Credit Quality Be Affected?

Inflation and labor disputes will bite into margins

Although signs are emerging that inflation is easing, operating and capital costs will continue to escalate in 2023 and cut into operating margins. Significant layoffs were enacted at many Australian universities, which helped to right-size their operations in the face of enrollment declines but also contributed to a number of labor actions. Work stoppages have also occurred in Canada, and especially the U.K., where a series of strikes by higher education workers have occurred since 2018 related to pension cuts, compensation, and working conditions. Labor costs remain the largest operating expense for universities, and we expect that general labor discord will continue in the near-term and that labor cost increases will, in part, depend on the inflation assumptions in place at the time collective agreements are signed.

A recession coupled with a tight labor market will exacerbate pressure

S&P Global Ratings expects global economic growth to slow in 2023, with many regions entering recession (see "Global Credit Outlook 2023: No Easy Way Out," Dec. 1, 2022). Several universities reaped the benefits of high investment returns in 2021 (most notably Canadian universities that tend to have larger endowments than other non-U.S. peers), which helped to boost both margins and levels of available resources when campus activities and auxiliary revenue generating units were still disrupted. Given the economic headwinds in 2023, these windfalls are not expected to recur in the near-term.

Demand for education services often increases during recessions. However, the current tight labor market and upward wage pressure could make staying out of the workforce to pursue higher education less desirable, upending the typical counter-cyclical nature of enrollment. Despite this risk, recent trends and indicators appear to point to fairly robust demand which should provide some buffer against investment income erosion.

Government policies help shape international demand

Although government grants as a proportion of total revenues increased very modestly in 2020, we did not see much in the way of extraordinary government support during the pandemic for rated universities outside the U.S. This partly reflects their relative financial stability and demonstrated ability to adequately adapt to the rapidly changing environment. We expect the trend of flat to declining operating grants to continue, as inflation and weak economic growth stretch government coffers. In addition, generally restrictive domestic tuition frameworks tend to limit the financial flexibility of universities and increase their reliance on international students for incremental revenue growth.

Competition for international students can be intense as they help boost an institution's reputation as well as being a lucrative source of revenue. A university's ability to attract international students is influenced by government policies related to immigration and foreign students. The U.K. has been roiled by political turnover recently, with three prime ministers and five ministers responsible for higher education since 2019. Recently, the Conservative government committed to cutting immigration and is considering restrictions on international students, who made up 22% of total university students and paid about 42% of total tuition fees in 2020-2021, partly to address concerns over the affordability and availability of student accommodations. Although this is also an issue in Canada and Australia, cutting the number of high fee-paying international students raises concerns over the ability of universities to cover the revenue shortfall without significant additional government funding. We will continue to monitor the government's actions in this space but note that in the 12-month period leading to September 2022, there was a 24% increase in the student visas issued (77% over the same period in 2019), suggesting that U.K. universities remain attractive to international students.

Canada is expected to issue about 25% more student visas in 2022 than the prior year and has also put forth an aggressive plan to increase the number of permanent residents welcomed into the country, which should also support overall demand. Australia is looking to revitalize its high levels of international students, which saw a 17% decline in 2021, and should benefit from favorable exchange rate movements (relative to the U.S. dollar) and recent changes to foreign student work rights. The Australian government has also promised to fund an additional 20,000 domestic university places in 2023 and 2024, which may partly counteract the lower foreign student numbers. International students are not a significant contributor to enrollment or revenues at Mexican universities, which instead rely to a large extent on government transfers. Domestic demand is expected to remain very robust for rated Mexican universities, although they remain exposed to the government's capacity to provide sufficient grants to accommodate growth.

ESG factors and cybersecurity risks are becoming more prominent

Universities are increasingly incorporating environmental goals into their strategic plans, while capital projects often incorporate positive social and environmental outcomes. We expect more institutions will seek ESG financing options, as we have already seen in Australia, Canada, and the U.K. At the same time, we expect that ESG-related awareness and activism will continue to drive shifts in university investment strategies (e.g., greenhouse gas reduction targets and oil and gas stock divestures).

The continuing escalation of cybersecurity risks compels institutions to increase their protection against attacks, requiring more resources and potentially further limiting financial flexibility.

Creditworthiness of non-U.S. universities remains strong

Rating distribution among non-U.S. universities remains concentrated in the 'AA' category, reflecting their generally strong demand characteristics and healthy balance sheets, which offers some protection against downside pressures. The three rated Mexican universities carry non-investment grade ratings.

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Chart 15

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Related Research

Australia, Canada, Mexico, And U.K. Universities Medians: Fiscal 2021 Credit Trends Turned Positive Despite Challenges, Oct. 20, 2022

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analysts:Jessica L Wood, Chicago + 1 (312) 233 7004;
jessica.wood@spglobal.com
Adam J Gillespie, Toronto + 1 (416) 507 2565;
adam.gillespie@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Laura A Kuffler-Macdonald, New York + 1 (212) 438 2519;
laura.kuffler.macdonald@spglobal.com
Jessica H Goldman, Hartford + 1 (212) 438 6484;
jessica.goldman@spglobal.com
Ken W Rodgers, New York + 1 (212) 438 2087;
ken.rodgers@spglobal.com
Stephanie Wang, Harrisburg + 1 (212) 438 3841;
stephanie.wang@spglobal.com
Mary Ellen E Wriedt, San Francisco + 1 (415) 371 5027;
maryellen.wriedt@spglobal.com
Non-U.S. Secondary Contact:Martin J Foo, Melbourne + 61 3 9631 2016;
martin.foo@spglobal.com
Noa Fux, London 44 2071 760730;
noa.fux@spglobal.com
Omar A De la Torre Ponce De Leon, Mexico City + 52 55 5081 2870;
omar.delatorre@spglobal.com
Research Contributors:Natalie Nash, Salt Lake City +1 4153715013;
natalie.n@spglobal.com
Ginger Wodele, New York +1 2124387421;
ginger.wodele@spglobal.com
Nicholas Breeding, New York (303) 721-4362;
nicholas.breeding@spglobal.com
Ruchika Radhakrishnan, Toronto + 1 (647) 297 0396;
ruchika.r@spglobal.com
Gauri Gupta, Chicago + 1 (312) 233 7010;
gauri.gupta@spglobal.com
Sean M Wiley, Chicago + 1 (312) 233 7050;
sean.wiley@spglobal.com
Megan Kearns, Englewood (1) 303-721-4643;
megan.kearns@spglobal.com

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