Key Takeaways
- Infrastructure as an asset class has shown resilience, with a two-year average cumulative default rate from 1981 to 2021 of 0.87%, compared with 3.8% for global nonfinancial corporates.
- The speculative-grade infrastructure issue default rate fell to 0.28% in 2021 after just one issue defaulted (down from nine rated defaults in 2020). There were no investment-grade issue defaults during the year.
- Net rating actions (the number of upgrades minus downgrades) improved substantially to -78 in 2021, from -196 in 2020. The number of upgrades more than doubled and downgrades declined compared with 2020.
- The sole default during the year came on Aug. 9, when U.S. oil and gas issuer Glass Mountain Pipeline LLC missed an interest payment on its senior secured debt--the issue had been rated in the 'CCC'/'C' category since May 11, 2020.
Economic growth sharply rebounded in 2021 after the brief, but deep, 2020 recession. With strong economic growth and accommodative financial conditions supporting issuers broadly, just one infrastructure issue defaulted during the year (down from 10 in 2020). It was rated in the 'CCC'/'C' category when the year began (see chart 1 and table 1).
With just one issue default in 2021, the speculative-grade default rate fell to 0.28%. This is the lowest annual speculative-grade infrastructure issue default rate since 2006 (when the default rate was 0.00%).
Chart 1
Table 1
| All Infrastructure Default Summary | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total defaults* | Rated defaults | Investment-grade defaults | Speculative-grade defaults | Default rate (%) | Investment-grade default rate (%) | Speculative-grade default rate (%) | |||||||||
| 1981 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1982 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1983 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1984 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1985 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1986 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1987 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1988 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 11.36 | |||||||||
| 1989 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1990 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1991 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.78 | 3.03 | |||||||||
| 1992 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 13.16 | |||||||||
| 1993 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1994 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1998 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 1999 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.25 | |||||||||
| 2000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 2001 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.04 | |||||||||
| 2002 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 2.23 | 0.95 | 10.34 | |||||||||
| 2003 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 1.54 | 0.15 | 6.98 | |||||||||
| 2004 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 1.02 | |||||||||
| 2005 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0.99 | 0.25 | 3.85 | |||||||||
| 2006 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 2007 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.89 | |||||||||
| 2008 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 1.26 | |||||||||
| 2009 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 2.90 | |||||||||
| 2010 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 1.87 | |||||||||
| 2011 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 2.46 | |||||||||
| 2012 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 2.82 | |||||||||
| 2013 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 2.13 | |||||||||
| 2014 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 2.30 | |||||||||
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.30 | |||||||||
| 2016 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 1.71 | |||||||||
| 2017 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 1.42 | |||||||||
| 2018 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 1.42 | |||||||||
| 2019 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.29 | |||||||||
| 2020 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 2.54 | |||||||||
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.28 | |||||||||
| *Includes defaults that were observed in the same year as the initial rating. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||
Downgrades continued to overwhelm upgrades in 2021, but rating action trends did improve. Upgrades during the year more than doubled to 68 (up from 30) while downgrades slowed to 146 (down from 226). Utilities accounted for 47% of upgrades and 40% of downgrades during the year. This subsector represented 43% of infrastructure issues when the year began and is by far the largest in our study (see charts 2-4).
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
This study covers infrastructure ratings in utilities, oil and gas (mostly midstream issuers), transportation, power, social infrastructure, and other industries covered under our corporate and project finance methodologies. The study also includes a small number of infrastructure issues rated under U.S. public finance and international public finance methodologies.
Part of our analysis on issue ratings is a high frequency of transitions to 'NR'; issues tend to be paid off and, thus, move to not rated. This stands in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.
Regional Default Trends
The U.S. leads all regions in speculative-grade ratings ('BB+' or lower) (see chart 5). Speculative-grade infrastructure ratings in the U.S. rapidly increased from 2003 to 2004, then steadily increased until peaking in 2018 (see chart 6).
Chart 5
Chart 6
Of the 155 infrastructure issue defaults since 1981, 71% have been from issuers based in the U.S. region (which includes tax havens Bermuda and the Cayman Islands). Defaults outside the U.S. have exceeded U.S. defaults just five times annually in that span. The larger number of speculative-grade issues in the U.S. contributes to the higher number of U.S. infrastructure defaults.
Subsector Default Trends
By subsector, utilities account for the most rated infrastructure defaults since 1981 (49%), followed by power (18%) and other (18%) (see chart 7). Combined, these subsectors account for 85% of annual rated infrastructure issue defaults and 75% of infrastructure issue ratings tracked in this study.
Examining the rating distribution by subsector over time (see chart 4), power and other defaults appear overrepresented--each subsector accounts for 8% and 9%, respectively, of all historical infrastructure issue ratings captured in this study.
Chart 7
Weaker rating distributions in the power, and other subsectors historically appear to account for some of this dissonance. Considering all 'CCC'/'C' category infrastructure issues tracked in this study, 18% were in power, and 14% were in other.
When considering all 'CCC'/'C' rated infrastructure issues since 1981, the oil and gas subsector appears to be the most underrepresented in the default tally--it accounts for 19% of these issues but just 9% of historical defaults.
The number of 'CCC'/'C' issues in the oil and gas subsector has risen notably since 2016, and this may point to more oil and gas infrastructure defaults in future years. The subsector currently accounts for the most 'CCC'/'C' infrastructure issues with 12, followed by utilities (seven), power (six), and transportation (six).
The increase in ratings in subsectors other than utilities coincides with the outsize growth in speculative-grade infrastructure issue ratings more broadly--particularly from oil and gas and power. Growth in rated issues from the oil and gas, transportation, power, social infrastructure, and other subsectors has outpaced that of the two utility subsectors since 1997. Utilities accounted for at least 76% of rated infrastructure issues annually through 1996, but currently they account for a much lower proportion of 42%.
By rating type, project finance issues have historically had higher default rates (see chart 8). However, with one infrastructure issue default in 2021, corporate infrastructure issues, excluding utilities, had the highest default rate.
Chart 8
Chart 9
Historical Default Cycles
In general, infrastructure's relative peak default rates aligned with those of nonfinancial corporates during the 2001 recession. However, the sector made it through the global financial crisis relatively unscathed, with a peak default rate under 1%, compared with 6% for nonfinancial corporates (see chart 10).
On a trailing-12-month basis, the overall infrastructure default rate was higher than the nonfinancial default rate only from December 2005 through November 2006. This was largely because of the Dec. 21, 2005, bankruptcy filing of Calpine Corp. (a corporate infrastructure power developer and energy merchant company), which covered five defaulting instruments in our dataset.
The lower infrastructure default rate over time reflects, in part, a consistently lower proportion of issues rated in the 'B' and 'CCC'/'C' categories compared with nonfinancial corporates. At the beginning of 2022, 43% of nonfinancial corporates were rated in the 'B' and 'CCC'/'C' categories, compared with just 10% of infrastructure issues.
Chart 10
Cumulative default rates are a historical summary of rating performance. For example, cumulative default rates for the power subsegment reflect the increased rate of default amid the energy crisis in the early 2000s. Since the end of that period, many ratings have been repositioned, and any analytical lessons have been incorporated into our power ratings.
The distribution of ratings within a rating category influences the weighted averages (e.g., within the broader 'BBB' rating category, the share of 'BBB-' versus 'BBB' versus 'BBB+') (see tables 2-4). Also, the sample sizes of infrastructure subsegments vary.
Table 2
| Cumulative Default Rates: Infrastructure And Nonfinancial Corporate (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | ||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | ||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.88 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 1.04 | 1.86 | 2.56 | ||||||
| BB | 0.28 | 3.01 | 4.39 | 4.85 | ||||||
| B | 1.69 | 7.14 | 9.90 | 10.11 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 14.18 | 29.59 | 32.33 | 32.33 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.09 | 0.72 | 1.22 | 1.59 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.87 | 6.51 | 8.44 | 8.78 | ||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 1.84 | 2.60 | 2.97 | ||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.37 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.32 | 0.56 | ||||||
| A | 0.03 | 0.30 | 1.08 | 1.80 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 1.39 | 3.13 | 4.28 | ||||||
| BB | 0.61 | 6.68 | 12.27 | 15.44 | ||||||
| B | 3.26 | 17.45 | 24.56 | 28.04 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 27.73 | 49.45 | 53.61 | 55.47 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.81 | 1.95 | 2.77 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.82 | 15.18 | 21.46 | 24.68 | ||||||
| All rated | 1.94 | 7.86 | 11.34 | 13.15 | ||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
Table 3
| Cumulative Default Rates: Corporate Infrastructure And Project Finance (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | ||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | ||||||
| A | 0.10 | 0.53 | 0.77 | 0.81 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.14 | 0.95 | 1.64 | 2.25 | ||||||
| BB | 0.07 | 2.34 | 2.98 | 3.20 | ||||||
| B | 2.41 | 10.20 | 10.92 | 10.92 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 19.05 | 35.93 | 40.80 | 40.80 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.11 | 0.65 | 1.06 | 1.35 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 2.47 | 7.53 | 8.60 | 8.74 | ||||||
| All rated | 0.37 | 1.43 | 1.91 | 2.19 | ||||||
| Corporate infrastructure excluding ultilities | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| A | 0.07 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0.77 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.10 | 1.40 | 3.08 | 4.32 | ||||||
| BB | 0.46 | 2.17 | 2.90 | 2.90 | ||||||
| B | 0.95 | 5.42 | 8.83 | 9.44 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 10.24 | 22.22 | 24.21 | 24.21 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.83 | 1.67 | 2.30 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.32 | 4.82 | 6.79 | 7.06 | ||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 2.02 | 3.14 | 3.70 | ||||||
| Project finance | ||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1.58 | 2.46 | ||||||
| BBB | 0.07 | 0.98 | 1.42 | 1.96 | ||||||
| BB | 0.35 | 4.77 | 7.82 | 9.08 | ||||||
| B | 2.28 | 7.18 | 11.41 | 11.41 | ||||||
| CCC/C | 11.76 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | ||||||
| Investment grade | 0.06 | 0.86 | 1.40 | 1.96 | ||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.88 | 7.43 | 10.58 | 11.35 | ||||||
| All rated | 0.68 | 3.10 | 4.52 | 5.15 | ||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
Table 4
| Average Cumulative Default Rates (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | ||||||||||||||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 1.22 | 1.32 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.59 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.87 | 3.37 | 4.61 | 5.73 | 6.51 | 7.07 | 7.47 | 7.85 | 8.24 | 8.44 | 8.54 | 8.65 | 8.69 | 8.73 | 8.78 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 0.87 | 1.25 | 1.58 | 1.84 | 2.04 | 2.20 | 2.36 | 2.49 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.91 | 2.97 | |||||||||||||||||
| Project finance | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0.65 | 0.86 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 1.63 | 1.82 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.88 | 3.47 | 5.04 | 6.33 | 7.43 | 8.25 | 8.90 | 9.60 | 10.27 | 10.58 | 10.70 | 10.83 | 10.98 | 11.15 | 11.35 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.68 | 1.33 | 1.99 | 2.58 | 3.10 | 3.45 | 3.75 | 4.05 | 4.31 | 4.52 | 4.71 | 4.88 | 5.02 | 5.08 | 5.15 | |||||||||||||||||
| Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 1.03 | 1.22 | 1.40 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 2.04 | 2.19 | 2.30 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.32 | 2.49 | 3.37 | 4.17 | 4.82 | 5.35 | 5.73 | 6.07 | 6.46 | 6.79 | 6.91 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 7.06 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 0.94 | 1.34 | 1.71 | 2.02 | 2.31 | 2.55 | 2.77 | 2.96 | 3.14 | 3.26 | 3.39 | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.70 | |||||||||||||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.84 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 1.06 | 1.14 | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.29 | 1.35 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 2.47 | 4.25 | 5.60 | 6.89 | 7.53 | 7.93 | 8.16 | 8.34 | 8.53 | 8.60 | 8.67 | 8.74 | 8.74 | 8.74 | 8.74 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.37 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 1.26 | 1.43 | 1.56 | 1.66 | 1.77 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.99 | 2.05 | 2.09 | 2.14 | 2.19 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 0.72 | 1.43 | 2.07 | 2.60 | 3.11 | 3.57 | 3.77 | 3.89 | 4.02 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.30 | 0.62 | 0.90 | 1.15 | 1.36 | 1.55 | 1.66 | 1.73 | 1.77 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | |||||||||||||||||
| Power | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.23 | 0.97 | 1.76 | 2.52 | 3.14 | 3.91 | 4.62 | 5.26 | 5.83 | 6.45 | 6.95 | 7.52 | 8.15 | 8.86 | 9.41 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.87 | 3.46 | 4.52 | 5.58 | 6.54 | 7.23 | 7.72 | 8.28 | 8.93 | 9.42 | 9.71 | 10.04 | 10.04 | 10.04 | 10.04 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.03 | 2.18 | 3.10 | 4.00 | 4.77 | 5.51 | 6.12 | 6.73 | 7.33 | 7.89 | 8.32 | 8.80 | 9.21 | 9.69 | 10.06 | |||||||||||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.65 | 2.98 | 4.16 | 4.82 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.29 | 0.61 | 0.90 | 1.11 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | |||||||||||||||||
| Social infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 0.60 | 1.26 | 2.00 | 2.83 | 3.76 | 4.83 | 6.09 | 7.61 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 0.83 | 1.02 | 1.25 | 1.51 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |||||||||||||||||
| Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.09 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.99 | 1.16 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.49 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 2.09 | 2.09 | 2.09 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.02 | 5.44 | 7.90 | 9.88 | 11.36 | 12.44 | 13.40 | 14.38 | 15.24 | 15.68 | 15.84 | 16.01 | 16.19 | 16.40 | 16.63 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.88 | 1.65 | 2.44 | 3.16 | 3.74 | 4.18 | 4.60 | 4.98 | 5.29 | 5.53 | 5.72 | 5.93 | 6.10 | 6.17 | 6.24 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 1.06 | 1.29 | 1.51 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 2.15 | 2.31 | 2.46 | 2.60 | 2.77 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.82 | 7.43 | 10.55 | 13.10 | 15.18 | 16.87 | 18.28 | 19.45 | 20.50 | 21.46 | 22.26 | 22.93 | 23.58 | 24.13 | 24.68 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.94 | 3.80 | 5.40 | 6.74 | 7.86 | 8.79 | 9.57 | 10.22 | 10.80 | 11.34 | 11.80 | 12.17 | 12.53 | 12.84 | 13.15 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Among defaulting issues, there is generally a positive correlation between initial ratings and time to default--meaning higher initial ratings often have longer times to default (see chart 11). The shortest time to default in our dataset was for a GenOn Energy Inc. issue, which defaulted in June 2017, just 26 days after it initially was rated 'CCC+'. Conversely, the longest time to default was for a Public Service Co. of New Hampshire issue, which defaulted in January 1988, nearly 26 years after receiving an initial rating of 'A'.
Chart 11
We define the marginal default rate as the percentage of rated projects that default every 12 months. On average, the marginal default rate for infrastructure issues peaks in year one and then steadily declines (see table 5).
Table 5
| Marginal Default Rates: All Infrastructure And Nonfinancial Corporate (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||||||||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||
| BB | 0.28 | 0.41 | 0.818 | 0.816 | 0.71 | 0.44 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.16 | ||||||||||||
| B | 1.69 | 2.08 | 1.39 | 1.31 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.42 | ||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 14.18 | 8.83 | 5.28 | 3.70 | 1.35 | 1.08 | 1.56 | 0.85 | 0.45 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.87 | 1.53 | 1.29 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.23 | ||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.33 | ||||||||||||
| BB | 0.61 | 1.37 | 1.62 | 1.66 | 1.60 | 1.48 | 1.32 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||
| B | 3.26 | 4.62 | 4.34 | 3.64 | 2.94 | 2.43 | 1.99 | 1.62 | 1.48 | 1.40 | ||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 27.73 | 15.10 | 8.79 | 5.54 | 4.37 | 2.17 | 2.36 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.22 | ||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | ||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.82 | 3.76 | 3.36 | 2.85 | 2.40 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 1.43 | 1.30 | 1.20 | ||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.94 | 1.89 | 1.67 | 1.42 | 1.20 | 1.01 | 0.85 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.60 | ||||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Speculative-grade ratings tend to have high marginal default rates in earlier years before declining, while investment-grade ratings tend to have persistently low marginal default rates. While infrastructure marginal default rates tend to be lower, the trends in marginal default rates are similar for nonfinancial corporates.
Historical Rating Action Cycles
As in most sectors, historical rating actions in infrastructure are more often negative than positive (see chart 12). Downgrades outnumbered upgrades 3,525 to 2,640 from 1981 through 2021. By year, downgrades exceeded upgrades in 27 of those 41 years (see table 6).
In 2021, downgrades outnumbered upgrades in all subsectors except transportation.
Chart 12
Table 6
| Infrastructure Rating Movement Total (1981-2021) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades | Downgrades | Difference | Downgrades/upgrades | |||||||
| Power | 196 | 359 | (163) | 1.83 | ||||||
| Transportation | 148 | 267 | (119) | 1.80 | ||||||
| Utilities | 1,630 | 1,969 | (339) | 1.21 | ||||||
| Oil and gas | 424 | 498 | (74) | 1.17 | ||||||
| Social infrastructure | 64 | 92 | (28) | 1.44 | ||||||
| Other | 178 | 340 | (162) | 1.91 | ||||||
| Total | 2,640 | 3,525 | (885) | 1.34 | ||||||
| Note: Does not include defaults. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
The number of annual downgrades peaked in 2020 during the global recession at 226--slightly more than the previous high of 223 in 2002.
Infrastructure downgrades accelerated in the early 2000s amid both a U.S. recession and as utilities experienced credit stress during a period of deregulation in the U.S. From 2000 to 2004, infrastructure downgrades totaled 723, compared with 237 upgrades.
Infrastructure upgrades peaked in 2007 at 173. The second-highest total was 147 in 2017.
The period with the highest number of upgrades minus downgrades was from 2005 to 2008. This followed the period with the lowest number of upgrades minus downgrades, from 1998 to 2004.
Table 7
| Project Finance And Corporate Infrastructure Rating Movement | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Upgrades-- | --Downgrades-- | --Defaults-- | ||||||||||||
| Number | Average annual % | Number | Average annual % | Number | Average annual % | |||||||||
| Utilities | 1,630 | 8.59 | 1,969 | 10.38 | 71 | 0.37 | ||||||||
| Project finance | 352 | 6.42 | 625 | 11.41 | 37 | 0.68 | ||||||||
| Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities | 658 | 8.31 | 931 | 11.76 | 36 | 0.45 | ||||||||
| All infrastructure | 2,640 | 8.16 | 3,525 | 10.89 | 144 | 0.44 | ||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||
We have noted a trend toward a higher downgrade rate among speculative-grade infrastructure issues over time. From 1981 to 2004, the proportion of downgrades from speculative-grade issues was close to the proportion of speculative-grade ratings, accounting for about 14% of downgrades and 12% of ratings on average.
As speculative-grade infrastructure issue ratings have risen, the proportion of speculative-grade downgrades has increased even more. From 2005 to 2009, speculative-grade issues accounted for 24% of annual downgrades and 20% of infrastructure issues on average. Then from 2010 to 2021, speculative-grade downgrades accounted for 39% of annual downgrades but just 24% of infrastructure ratings on average.
Rating Transitions
Transition tables detail ratings changes over time. Each cell in the table represents the weighted average percentage of ratings that maintain a rating or transition to a different rating during a given time horizon. The rows indicate the rating at the start of the period, and the columns show how those ratings are distributed at the end of the period (see table 8).
Table 8
| Infrastructure Average Transition Rates (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | |||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 84.43 | 7.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.44 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.40 | 83.61 | 8.43 | 0.55 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.78 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 1.06 | 86.25 | 5.69 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 6.65 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2.75 | 85.89 | 2.67 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 8.06 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 6.56 | 72.73 | 7.00 | 1.00 | 0.28 | 12.30 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.99 | 9.00 | 67.79 | 7.06 | 1.69 | 13.22 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 2.46 | 10.96 | 55.39 | 14.18 | 15.88 | |||||||||||
| Three years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 57.39 | 14.78 | 1.73 | 1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.57 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.84 | 59.27 | 17.09 | 2.15 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.15 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 2.33 | 64.67 | 11.83 | 0.63 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 19.86 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.01 | 0.04 | 6.62 | 63.55 | 4.25 | 1.20 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 23.04 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 13.02 | 40.30 | 8.90 | 2.35 | 1.51 | 33.63 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.78 | 15.64 | 31.05 | 8.07 | 5.18 | 35.67 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.28 | 3.43 | 11.35 | 16.70 | 26.98 | 39.83 | |||||||||||
| Five years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 36.38 | 16.90 | 1.79 | 4.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40.16 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.97 | 41.32 | 19.85 | 3.47 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.70 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 2.67 | 49.22 | 13.60 | 0.79 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.52 | 32.63 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.03 | 0.05 | 8.37 | 47.31 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 0.78 | 1.14 | 36.54 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 14.23 | 23.79 | 5.94 | 1.96 | 3.15 | 50.23 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 5.14 | 13.25 | 13.13 | 4.63 | 7.29 | 55.87 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.11 | 1.64 | 8.22 | 5.63 | 31.22 | 51.17 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
The highest values in the transition matrix are along the diagonal, indicating that a high proportion of these issue ratings do not change during a given period. The proportion of ratings that have transitioned higher are to the left of the diagonal, and the proportion of ratings that have transitioned lower are to the right.
The 'A' category is typically the most stable, while the 'AA' category is generally the most likely to transition to a lower rating category (excluding default). The smaller sample sizes of issues in the 'AAA' and 'AA' categories, compared with the 'A' category, contributes to this to some extent.
In table 8, note the large percentages of withdrawn ratings (not rated, or NR) as time increases. The high frequency of issue ratings that are withdrawn for redemption, maturity, or any other reason makes longer time horizons of up to 20 years impractical for infrastructure. The high frequency of transitions to NR is a result of our analysis of issue ratings; issues tend to be paid off and, thus, move to not rated. This is in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.
The high percentage of infrastructure ratings that have been withdrawn, as indicated in the NR column, obscures the data and our conclusions to some extent. For example, after five years, over 36% of infrastructure issue ratings in the 'BBB' category have been withdrawn, compared with just over 22% of nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings in the same category (see table 9). There is no indication of whether the withdrawn ratings would have remained in the same category, moved higher, or moved lower. The result is less precise comparisons between infrastructure issue ratings and nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings.
Table 9
| Nonfinancial Corporate Average Transition Rates (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | |||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 87.10 | 8.30 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.63 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.53 | 86.92 | 7.77 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.93 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 1.17 | 88.15 | 6.29 | 0.33 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 3.84 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.01 | 0.05 | 2.79 | 87.46 | 3.63 | 0.44 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 5.41 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 4.30 | 78.28 | 7.06 | 0.52 | 0.61 | 9.12 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.34 | 74.53 | 5.00 | 3.26 | 12.65 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 13.00 | 43.63 | 27.73 | 14.96 | |||||||||||
| Three years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 66.50 | 19.10 | 3.51 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.18 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.20 | 66.27 | 18.30 | 2.41 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 10.96 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.05 | 2.74 | 69.32 | 14.52 | 1.28 | 0.54 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 11.36 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.02 | 0.14 | 6.99 | 68.27 | 7.36 | 1.63 | 0.24 | 0.64 | 14.71 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 9.82 | 49.46 | 12.06 | 1.23 | 3.59 | 23.42 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.54 | 8.68 | 41.74 | 5.46 | 12.03 | 31.38 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.52 | 1.52 | 15.18 | 9.70 | 44.67 | 28.33 | |||||||||||
| Five years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 52.51 | 24.49 | 5.38 | 1.13 | 0.57 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.85 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.51 | 50.38 | 24.72 | 4.36 | 0.82 | 0.49 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 17.61 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.05 | 3.56 | 55.88 | 19.07 | 2.10 | 0.87 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 18.06 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.03 | 0.20 | 9.10 | 55.89 | 8.38 | 2.29 | 0.33 | 1.47 | 22.31 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.75 | 11.79 | 34.15 | 11.92 | 1.27 | 6.96 | 33.11 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 1.11 | 9.19 | 25.00 | 3.29 | 18.15 | 43.08 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.72 | 2.29 | 11.31 | 2.63 | 49.13 | 33.86 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 10
| Infrastructure Average Transition Rates (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | AAA | AA+ | AA | AA- | A+ | A | A- | BBB+ | BBB | BBB- | BB+ | BB | BB- | B+ | B | B- | CCC+ | CCC | CCC- | CC | C | D | NR | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 84.43 | 4.69 | 2.25 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.44 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA+ | 3.35 | 74.09 | 6.71 | 5.49 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 2.74 | 78.86 | 6.40 | 3.46 | 1.12 | 0.41 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.17 | 75.76 | 10.25 | 2.05 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.64 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A+ | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 5.28 | 71.17 | 10.93 | 2.89 | 1.19 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 7.73 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 4.08 | 78.38 | 7.52 | 2.33 | 0.72 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 6.19 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.45 | 4.85 | 78.54 | 7.40 | 1.36 | 0.42 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 6.61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.97 | 6.00 | 74.79 | 8.52 | 1.05 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 7.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 1.30 | 6.87 | 75.30 | 6.60 | 0.83 | 0.31 | 0.43 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 7.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB- | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 1.13 | 7.50 | 75.28 | 3.93 | 1.33 | 0.74 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 8.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 2.64 | 10.61 | 61.10 | 6.45 | 3.68 | 1.66 | 1.18 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 11.58 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.39 | 1.97 | 9.30 | 63.36 | 6.15 | 1.97 | 2.68 | 0.71 | 0.32 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 11.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 2.30 | 3.23 | 7.74 | 57.06 | 9.35 | 2.47 | 1.96 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.34 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 13.69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.57 | 1.02 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 10.53 | 51.98 | 11.21 | 4.08 | 1.25 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 13.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 1.22 | 4.59 | 13.00 | 44.80 | 12.84 | 3.98 | 1.53 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 1.53 | 14.22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 1.89 | 2.11 | 15.16 | 47.58 | 10.95 | 2.32 | 2.74 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 3.79 | 12.21 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 14.71 | 41.67 | 4.41 | 6.37 | 1.96 | 0.98 | 4.90 | 19.12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 3.01 | 6.02 | 5.26 | 39.85 | 12.78 | 7.52 | 0.75 | 9.02 | 12.78 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 12.50 | 30.00 | 13.75 | 6.25 | 16.25 | 11.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 0.00 | 30.00 | 2.50 | 40.00 | 15.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| C | 9.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.25 | 0.00 | 3.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.13 | 0.00 | 31.25 | 25.00 | 21.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Three years | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 57.39 | 10.17 | 3.84 | 0.77 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.57 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA+ | 4.87 | 40.26 | 11.04 | 11.69 | 2.60 | 0.97 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.64 | 4.58 | 49.31 | 12.35 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 2.88 | 1.17 | 0.21 | 0.53 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.32 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA- | 0.07 | 0.37 | 7.12 | 46.15 | 16.07 | 4.77 | 3.01 | 0.66 | 1.61 | 0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.74 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A+ | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 8.19 | 37.35 | 16.10 | 6.77 | 3.04 | 1.49 | 0.34 | 0.54 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 23.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.25 | 8.09 | 49.18 | 14.00 | 5.56 | 2.07 | 0.49 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 17.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1.18 | 10.56 | 49.46 | 12.77 | 3.70 | 0.90 | 0.51 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.26 | 19.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 2.67 | 12.52 | 43.09 | 12.91 | 3.64 | 0.61 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.61 | 21.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.66 | 3.78 | 12.80 | 44.81 | 10.35 | 1.55 | 0.89 | 0.85 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 22.32 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB- | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.79 | 4.22 | 13.80 | 43.87 | 4.62 | 2.06 | 1.56 | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.92 | 24.84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.85 | 5.03 | 15.78 | 27.22 | 8.66 | 4.10 | 3.33 | 1.31 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 29.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 1.75 | 6.58 | 10.44 | 27.81 | 7.54 | 3.16 | 3.07 | 1.67 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 34.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB- | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.49 | 1.28 | 5.12 | 5.22 | 7.87 | 21.46 | 7.28 | 3.64 | 3.54 | 1.18 | 0.98 | 0.79 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 2.66 | 37.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 2.05 | 2.69 | 4.61 | 4.35 | 11.40 | 18.18 | 9.09 | 5.12 | 2.82 | 1.15 | 1.02 | 0.51 | 0.26 | 3.59 | 32.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 1.17 | 2.18 | 2.51 | 3.35 | 8.38 | 9.21 | 13.23 | 7.20 | 3.52 | 1.84 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 5.03 | 39.70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 0.24 | 0.48 | 1.43 | 0.72 | 3.58 | 4.53 | 3.58 | 10.74 | 16.23 | 7.16 | 1.43 | 3.58 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 8.35 | 35.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC+ | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1.21 | 3.64 | 0.61 | 4.85 | 9.70 | 10.30 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 13.94 | 50.91 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 2.40 | 0.80 | 4.80 | 8.00 | 0.80 | 8.80 | 6.40 | 8.80 | 2.40 | 25.60 | 28.80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.23 | 4.23 | 1.41 | 4.23 | 8.45 | 5.63 | 4.23 | 23.94 | 42.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.56 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 1.28 | 3.85 | 0.00 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 52.56 | 30.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.57 | 46.43 | 42.86 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Five years | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 36.38 | 10.74 | 3.58 | 2.58 | 1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.18 | 1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA+ | 3.82 | 22.22 | 6.94 | 13.89 | 4.86 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 44.10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 1.00 | 3.88 | 30.82 | 12.42 | 4.77 | 5.54 | 4.55 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 32.48 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AA- | 0.31 | 0.16 | 6.13 | 30.59 | 14.75 | 6.29 | 4.89 | 2.48 | 1.32 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 32.22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A+ | 0.15 | 0.22 | 2.34 | 6.30 | 20.44 | 14.51 | 9.16 | 4.10 | 2.20 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 38.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1.79 | 8.44 | 32.77 | 13.64 | 7.11 | 3.02 | 0.72 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.68 | 30.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A- | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 1.78 | 12.20 | 32.74 | 12.34 | 4.69 | 1.47 | 0.63 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 32.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB+ | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 3.99 | 13.65 | 27.08 | 12.24 | 3.96 | 0.79 | 0.19 | 0.60 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 34.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.94 | 5.54 | 13.04 | 28.25 | 9.93 | 1.56 | 1.16 | 0.61 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.85 | 35.80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB- | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.60 | 1.01 | 6.52 | 12.72 | 27.02 | 3.68 | 2.07 | 1.88 | 0.96 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 0.46 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 1.53 | 39.14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB+ | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.94 | 8.32 | 11.66 | 14.07 | 5.49 | 5.23 | 2.66 | 1.03 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.77 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 2.83 | 44.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.92 | 3.26 | 9.16 | 7.23 | 14.26 | 5.60 | 2.55 | 0.92 | 1.53 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.31 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 2.75 | 50.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1.27 | 0.92 | 4.04 | 5.20 | 4.39 | 9.12 | 4.97 | 1.73 | 2.42 | 1.39 | 0.81 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 4.04 | 58.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.45 | 0.30 | 1.64 | 4.62 | 5.07 | 4.92 | 6.71 | 7.15 | 4.02 | 4.47 | 0.89 | 0.45 | 0.60 | 0.45 | 0.75 | 5.37 | 52.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.75 | 0.19 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 2.81 | 4.88 | 4.32 | 3.56 | 3.94 | 3.56 | 1.31 | 0.56 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 7.32 | 59.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.27 | 0.54 | 1.34 | 1.88 | 3.22 | 3.75 | 1.07 | 5.36 | 5.09 | 4.56 | 1.07 | 2.41 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 10.72 | 57.64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 4.83 | 6.21 | 2.07 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 16.55 | 64.83 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 0.83 | 1.67 | 2.50 | 3.33 | 0.00 | 30.00 | 46.67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 3.33 | 1.67 | 3.33 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 30.00 | 53.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.74 | 0.00 | 1.37 | 4.11 | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 56.16 | 31.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | 46.43 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Focusing on the 'BBB' category, which is generally the largest infrastructure rating category, allows for comparison among infrastructure subsectors (see table 11).
Table 11
| 'BBB' Category Transition Rates By Subsector (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --% Transition-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | Higher | Lower | Total | ||||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 | 88.39 | 3.32 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.06 | 0.97 | 3.58 | 4.55 | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.90 | 84.75 | 2.06 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 8.78 | 3.90 | 2.58 | 6.47 | ||||||||||||||
| Power | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 89.02 | 3.77 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.25 | 5.11 | 0.67 | 5.20 | 5.87 | ||||||||||||||
| social | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1.91 | 90.28 | 3.09 | 0.44 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 3.83 | 2.21 | 3.68 | 5.89 | ||||||||||||||
| Transportation | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 87.37 | 2.90 | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 7.02 | 1.87 | 3.74 | 5.61 | ||||||||||||||
| Other | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 80.55 | 4.61 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 12.84 | 0.87 | 5.74 | 6.61 | ||||||||||||||
| Three years | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.95 | 71.23 | 5.90 | 1.95 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 18.68 | 1.95 | 8.14 | 10.09 | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.33 | 61.05 | 3.03 | 0.63 | 0.43 | 0.65 | 24.89 | 9.33 | 4.73 | 14.06 | ||||||||||||||
| Power | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 | 70.67 | 5.90 | 3.05 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 16.19 | 1.05 | 12.10 | 13.14 | ||||||||||||||
| social | 0.00 | 0.86 | 5.50 | 74.91 | 7.56 | 1.03 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 9.97 | 6.36 | 8.76 | 15.12 | ||||||||||||||
| Transportation | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.02 | 64.78 | 6.00 | 0.65 | 1.31 | 0.44 | 21.81 | 5.02 | 8.40 | 13.41 | ||||||||||||||
| Other | 0.13 | 0.00 | 2.07 | 49.94 | 5.17 | 3.10 | 2.59 | 0.91 | 36.09 | 2.20 | 11.77 | 13.97 | ||||||||||||||
| Five years | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.45 | 58.94 | 6.16 | 3.44 | 0.66 | 0.20 | 28.15 | 2.45 | 10.46 | 12.91 | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.59 | 44.06 | 2.67 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 39.49 | 11.59 | 4.86 | 16.45 | ||||||||||||||
| Power | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 55.92 | 6.91 | 3.62 | 1.64 | 3.84 | 27.30 | 0.77 | 16.01 | 16.78 | ||||||||||||||
| social | 0.00 | 1.26 | 8.81 | 64.15 | 10.90 | 1.05 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 13.42 | 10.06 | 12.37 | 22.43 | ||||||||||||||
| Transportation | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.24 | 48.30 | 6.78 | 2.58 | 0.68 | 1.09 | 34.33 | 6.24 | 11.13 | 17.37 | ||||||||||||||
| Other | 0.40 | 0.00 | 2.56 | 30.59 | 4.58 | 2.43 | 2.29 | 1.75 | 55.39 | 2.96 | 11.05 | 14.02 | ||||||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Social infrastructure ratings have historically been the most likely to remain in the 'BBB' category across one-year, three-year, and five-year time horizons--in part owing to the greater revenue stability conferred by availability payments, which are more common in this subsector.
Gini Coefficients
The Gini coefficient--a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--is a measure of the relative ability of ratings to differentiate default risk. Infrastructure Lorenz curves vary in their similarity to ideal curves, and Gini coefficients fall within a wide range. Over one-year, three-year, and five-year horizons, the coefficients for infrastructure as a whole--at 78%, 69%, and 64%, respectively--show a strong relationship between lower ratings and the propensity to default (see table 12).
Table 12
| All Infrastructure Gini Coefficients (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-year | 78 | |||
| Three-year | 69 | |||
| Five-year | 64 | |||
| Three-year | ||||
| Social infrastructure | 100 | |||
| Transportation | 83 | |||
| Utilities | 66 | |||
| Power | 45 | |||
| Oil and gas | 62 | |||
| Other | 78 | |||
| Canada | 99 | |||
| Asia-Pacific | 66 | |||
| U.S. and tax havens | 65 | |||
| EMEA | 67 | |||
| Latin America | 62 | |||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||
Points along the Lorenz curve represent different ratings, starting with issues in the 'CCC'/'C' category on the far left of the x axis (see chart 13). The first point indicates about 34% of transitions to default were from issues rated 'CCC'/'C'.
At higher ratings, the number of defaults generally decreases, yielding points that continue to climb as one moves right along the x axis through the remainder of the rating scale. The Lorenz curve generally turns sharply to the right at the investment-grade ratings because of the low proportion of defaults from investment-grade issues. Table 13 shows the coordinates of the Lorenz curve in chart 13.
Chart 13
Table 13
| Infrastructure Three-Year Lorenz Curve Values | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | Y-axis: cumulative proportion of defaults | X-axis: cumulative proportion of ratings | ||||
| AAA | 100.00 | 100.00 | ||||
| AA+ | 100.00 | 98.24 | ||||
| AA | 100.00 | 97.20 | ||||
| AA- | 100.00 | 94.03 | ||||
| A+ | 100.00 | 89.42 | ||||
| A | 99.20 | 84.42 | ||||
| A- | 96.28 | 74.15 | ||||
| BBB+ | 93.62 | 60.99 | ||||
| BBB | 87.77 | 48.82 | ||||
| BBB- | 81.91 | 32.92 | ||||
| BB+ | 72.07 | 19.31 | ||||
| BB | 70.48 | 14.94 | ||||
| BB- | 65.43 | 11.08 | ||||
| B+ | 58.24 | 7.65 | ||||
| B | 50.80 | 5.01 | ||||
| B- | 42.82 | 2.99 | ||||
| CCC/C | 33.51 | 1.58 | ||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||
However, the relationship varies across infrastructure subsectors (see table 12). To compare, we use a three-year horizon for the Gini coefficient because it is the longest period in which a sizable number of issues remain outstanding (either prior to redemption or any other reason for rating withdrawals).
Social infrastructure has the highest three-year Gini coefficient at nearly 100%--extremely high. The transportation and other subsectors have high coefficients at 83% and 78%, respectively. The utilities and oil and gas subsectors have moderately high coefficients at 66% and 62%, respectively. Meanwhile, the power subsector has a low coefficient at 45%--indicating a high frequency of defaults among higher-rated issues historically.
While the differences are not as extreme, there is also variation across regions. Canada has an extremely high coefficient at nearly 100%. Meanwhile, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); Asia-Pacific; the U.S. and tax havens; and Latin America each have moderately high coefficients at 67%, 66%, 65%, and 62%, respectively.
Recovery Rates
Ultimate recovery rates for defaulted infrastructure debt instruments, which include bank debt and bonds in both corporate infrastructure and project finance, average 77.3%--much higher than the 60.0% average for nonfinancial corporates (see chart 14).
Chart 14
Many of the infrastructure corporates and projects that achieved the highest recoveries exhibited both high asset quality and low industry risk. Recoveries for infrastructure corporates help lift average recoveries for infrastructure overall. Furthermore, regulated utilities, a subset of corporate infrastructure, specifically shows a tendency toward above-average recovery rates (particularly senior unsecured bonds).
Within infrastructure, corporate infrastructure (excluding project finance) displays an average recovery of 80.4% (from 340 instruments), and more than half of the defaulted instruments recovered par or greater. This average recovery for corporate infrastructure is notably higher than the average recoveries from project finance (58.7% from 56 instruments) and from nonfinancial corporates (60% from over 4,400 instruments).
Average recoveries from project finance instruments are considerably lower than for corporate infrastructure and are nearer to the average recoveries of nonfinancial corporates. However, the average recovery from project finance is based on a much smaller sample of 56 instruments, and the distribution of these recoveries is more varied, with recoveries nearly equal at the high end and the low end. The projects with the lowest recoveries typically exhibited high market risk or encountered technology issues.
Our dataset of recoveries for infrastructure corporate and project finance includes defaulted instruments that were resolved through a debt restructuring, a distressed exchange, or a liquidation and sale of assets. To calculate recovery rates on defaulted projects, we relied on public documents, court filings, and company reports. Because we used public information, we were unable to calculate recovery rates on all defaulted projects. Most of the recovery rates we were able to calculate were from legal jurisdictions, such as the U.S., that published an abundance of post-default data. These recoveries are calculated on a nominal basis and have not been discounted for the time between default and emergence.
In addition to calculating recovery rates as an average of instrument recoveries, weighted by the number of instruments, we also looked at recoveries on a dollar-weighted basis. For the dollar-weighted averages, we calculated the nominal sum of debt recovered from the pool of defaulted instruments, divided by the total of defaulted debt in the sample for that instrument type.
Dollar-weighted recoveries for infrastructure tend to be lower, on average, than the instrument-weighted averages. However, the 68.0% dollar-weighted average recovery for the infrastructure sector overall remains higher than the 57.0% dollar-weighted average for nonfinancial corporates.
This infrastructure dataset includes 75 defaulted obligors, affecting nearly 400 debt instruments. While the dataset includes obligors from the emerging and developed markets, nearly 92% of the instruments included in the recovery dataset are from U.S.-based obligors. These include entities that defaulted from 1988 to 2020. The count of instruments includes senior debt, senior unsecured debt, and subordinated debt. Many obligors have defaulted on a variety of instruments, and some have defaulted more than once, causing the number of observed instrument defaults to far exceed the number of defaulters.
Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study periodically includes the addition of defaulted instruments from prior years, where sufficient information on the ultimate recovery value has subsequently become available.
Recovery By Instrument Type
By debt type, senior secured and subordinated infrastructure debt shows average recovery rates that are very close to the average recoveries of nonfinancial corporates. By contrast, senior unsecured debt from infrastructure displays a markedly higher average recovery (near 80%) than that of nonfinancial corporates (at 51.3%) (see chart 15). This reflects, in part, the higher concentration of regulated utilities among infrastructure corporates than among all nonfinancial corporates. While the utilities sector accounts for more than half of the instruments in the pool of infrastructure recoveries, it accounts for closer to 5% of the pool of nonfinancial corporates.
Senior secured debt (which includes bank debt along with senior secured bonds) from the infrastructure sector shows an average recovery of 78.6%, which is nearing the 79% average recovery for nonfinancial corporates. Meanwhile, subordinated debt from the infrastructure sector averages 23%, which is below the 31.7% average recovery of subordinated debt from the nonfinancial sectors.
Chart 15
In our dataset, average recoveries of senior unsecured infrastructure debt are also higher than those of senior secured. This largely reflects a concentration of debt from regulated utilities that is included among the defaulted senior unsecured bonds. In many of these cases, the senior unsecured bond was the most senior instrument in the debt stack, which supported an above-average recovery for those instruments. This concentration lifts the average recovery of senior unsecured debt.
In addition, the recovery for senior secured infrastructure debt is more influenced by project finance recoveries. Since most project finance debt is secured, it accounts for very few of the senior unsecured or subordinated recoveries.
The utilities subsector has the highest average recovery rate (near 83%), lifted in part by the portion of those that benefited from regulatory support and the ability to pass through costs to consumers. However, not all utilities issues are from regulated entities. The dollar-weighted recovery for the utilities sector is notably lower (at 69.9%) since this recovery is weighed down by a few defaults of entities, including Enron Inc. in 2001, that were involved in unregulated businesses (see chart 16).
Utilities broadly show higher recoveries than the other infrastructure industries for several reasons. Regulated utilities hold essential assets and provide essential services, such as power, water, and gas, that often have little or no practical substitute. This supports a business model shielded by regulation, and issuers' ability to add debt is often limited by regulation or secured bond indentures. As a result, S&P Global Ratings assesses industry risk as very low for the regulated utilities--the only corporate subsector to have this assessment.
Chart 16
Recovery By Default Type
Recovery rates can also vary with the type of default that the infrastructure entity undergoes. In nonbankruptcy restructurings, which include distressed exchanges and defaults that are cured within or outside of the grace period, the recovery rates for unsecured and subordinated debt tend to be higher, on average, than they would be through a bankruptcy restructuring. Unsecured creditors tend to experience higher average recoveries if they can avoid an expensive bankruptcy restructuring process that pits creditor against creditor.
The average recovery across all instruments is higher, at 82.7%, following a nonbankruptcy restructuring than the 76.1% average following a bankruptcy (see table 14). By debt type, the difference stems from senior unsecured and subordinated debt, and this is consistent with what we find in nonfinancial corporate recoveries.
Table 14
| Average Recovery Rate For Bankruptcy Versus Non-Bankruptcy Restructurings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Average recovery (nominal, %)-- | --Instrument count-- | |||||||||
| Bankruptcy | Non-bankruptcy | Bankruptcy | Non-bankruptcy | |||||||
| Senior secured debt | 78.7 | 78.1 | 145 | 19 | ||||||
| Senior unsecured and subordinated | 74.1 | 84.4 | 180 | 52 | ||||||
| Total | 76.1 | 82.7 | 325 | 71 | ||||||
| Note: Nominal recovery for defaulted debt instruments from infrastructure corporate and project finance entities. Senior secured debt includes all bank debt and senior secured bonds. Non-bankruptcy restructurings include distressed exchanges, defaults cured within, or without, the grace period, and other non-bankruptcy restructurings. Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro® and S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
Close to half of defaulted infrastructure debt instruments have ultimately recovered par or greater, granted, these nominal recoveries do not factor in the time value of money. 50.3% of infrastructure debt instruments recovered at such level of par or greater, and this was markedly higher than the 29.0% of nonfinancial corporates that recovered at that level (see chart 17).
Chart 17
At the low end of the distribution, just 10.4% of defaulted infrastructure debt instruments recovered 20% or less, compared with about 25.7% of nonfinancial corporate debt instruments. However, the sample size of infrastructure recoveries remains considerably smaller than that of nonfinancial corporates.
The distribution of project finance recoveries tends to vary more widely than that of corporate infrastructure. An equal share of project finance instruments recovered par or greater as experienced recoveries of 20% or less (see chart 18).
Chart 18
Among other projects with higher recoveries, many tend to benefit from characteristics similar to those of regulated utilities. For instance, infrastructure project financings hold essential assets, have stable cash flows, and exhibit low industry risk. In many cases, low industry risk may be supported by long-term offtake contracts, such as power purchase agreements or availability-based payments under a concession, operations and maintenance contracts, or fuel-supply contracts.
The distribution of recoveries within corporate infrastructure tends to be more highly concentrated at the high end of the recovery range. Most defaulted debt instruments (about 54.4%) from corporate infrastructure experienced recoveries of par or greater, while less than 7.5% of instruments recovered 20% or less (see chart 19).
Chart 19
Appendix I: Definitions And Methodology
Infrastructure investment is broadly defined as investment exposure (debt or equity) to real assets vital to a country's economic development and prosperity that provide essential services for the orderly operations of an economy, such as transportation networks, health and education facilities, communication networks, and water and energy distribution systems. Key risks are in design, permitting, construction, operations, volume, and maintenance, with debt repaid predominantly by cash generated from the assets themselves.
Characteristics of infrastructure entities vary, and the variety of risks managed by infrastructure investments is broad (such as greenfield/brownfield, contracted/regulated/merchant, and availability/demand risk). Characteristics sought by investors in infrastructure include longevity, strong competitive advantages, high barriers to entry and monopolistic characteristics, low volatility, differentiation between return and volatility, and inflation-linked or predictable cash flows.
Our third annual infrastructure default and rating transition study continues the analysis of the inaugural study, as well as expands on and supersedes project finance studies we've published in previous years. The data encompasses project finance ratings from past reports and adds ratings from other segments within infrastructure. The advantage of this report over its predecessors is its broader perspective and larger dataset, which allow for more conclusions and increase the robustness of the findings while enabling comparisons between infrastructure issuer types and subsectors.
Our long-term infrastructure default and rating transition study uses long-term ratings on individual project finance debt issues. For projects with multiple tranches of debt, we used a single rating for all pari passu tranches to mitigate the risk of overweighting such projects in the sample set. For projects with senior and subordinated debt with different ratings, we counted each class separately and collapsed multiple tranches of pari passu debt into a single rating.
An infrastructure rating reflects S&P Global Ratings' opinion of the obligor's ability and willingness to meet its financial commitments on time, and it generally indicates our opinion of the likelihood of default regarding the specific rated issuance. Unlike issuer credit ratings, project finance ratings consider the value of collateral and recovery in determining the rating.
We analyzed the rating histories of corporate infrastructure and project finance credits that S&P Global Ratings first rated between Dec. 31, 1980, and Dec. 31, 2020. We categorized these ratings into five subsectors: utilities, power, oil and gas, social infrastructure, and transportation. Other obligors are grouped in a separate category.
The analysis excludes ratings based on the guarantee of another entity and obligations wrapped by a monoline insurer, unless the obligations bear an S&P Underlying Rating (SPUR), in which case we included the SPUR. Corporate issuers, structured finance vehicles, public-sector issuers, and sovereign issuers are the subjects of separate default and transition studies, so we have excluded them from this study. The infrastructure data makes up a sufficiently large set, although individual subsectors are small, so that a few defaults or rating transitions can have a sizable effect on portfolio performance within those groups.
Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study could lead to outcomes that differ to some degree from those reported in previous studies. However, this poses no continuity problem because each study reports statistics back to Dec. 31, 1980. Therefore, each annual default study is self-contained and effectively supersedes all previous versions.
Withdrawn ratings
When a rating is withdrawn, it is changed to not rated (NR). Issue ratings are withdrawn when an obligation is repaid or at the request of the issuer. S&P Global Ratings also withdraws ratings when sufficient information to maintain a rating is unavailable. If we withdrew a rating after the issue defaulted, we counted it as a default.
Definition of default
A default is assumed to take place on the date S&P Global Ratings revised the rating to 'D', which could occur when a payment on the issue is missed, a distressed exchange offer is completed, or the issuer filed for or was forced into bankruptcy. When an issue defaults, it is not uncommon for S&P Global Ratings to subsequently withdraw the 'D' rating.
For the purposes of this study, if an issue defaults, we end its rating history at 'D'. For those instances when an issue defaulted and was subsequently upgraded, we entered the rating history after the default into the calculations as a new rating.
Many practitioners use statistics from this default study to estimate "probability of default" and "probability of rating transition." It is important to note that S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings do not imply a specific probability of default.
Static pool methodology
We conduct our default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issues by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. All issues included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. When an issue defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issue belonged.
We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates. This is to ensure that default rates account for rating migration and to allow for default rates to be calculated across multiperiod time horizons.
The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of issues in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Jan. 1, 1981, to avoid continuity problems.
Because static pools only include issues with active ratings as of the beginning date of a given pool, we exclude those with withdrawn ratings, as well as those that have defaulted, from subsequent static pools. If the rating on an issue is withdrawn after the start date of a particular static pool and the issue subsequently defaults, we will include it in that static pool as a default and categorize it in the rating category of which it was a member at that time.
For instance, the 1983 static pool consists of all issues rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1983. Adding those issues first rated in 1983 to the surviving members of the 1983 static pool forms the 1984 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1984 static pool through the ratings on these issues as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1984. We used the same method to form static pools for 1985-2021.
Consider the following example: An issue is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1996 and is downgraded to 'B' in 1998. This is followed by a rating withdrawal in 2000 and a default in 2003. We would include this hypothetical issue in the 1997 and 1998 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1999 and 2000 pools with the 'B' rating. It would not be part of the 1996 pool because it was not rated as of the first day of that year, and it would not be included in any pool after the last day of 2000 because the rating had been withdrawn by then. Yet each of the four pools in which this company was included (1997-2000) would record its 2003 default at the appropriate time horizon.
Transition matrices
Transition rates compare issue ratings at the beginning of a period with the ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. An issue that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated.
For instance, an issue continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If the rating on the issue was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.
All 1982 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2022, had 40 one-year transitions, while companies first rated on Dec. 31, 2020, had only one. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to not rated.
The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if an issue was rated 'A' on Jan. 1, 2014, and was downgraded to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this instrument would be included only in the percentage of issues that began the year as 'A' and that ended the year as 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issue defaults or if the rating is withdrawn in the middle of the year, then it would be considered rated 'D', or not rated, as of Dec. 31 of that particular year.
Multiyear transitions
Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two up to five years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2019 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2021.
Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions. We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices just described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issue-weighted averages.
Rating modifiers
We use rating modifiers (plus and minus signs) to calculate upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, throughout this study. However, some transition tables may use full rating categories for practical reasons: The use of a rating category suggests that transitions to 'AA-' from 'AA', for example, or to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+' are not considered to be rating transitions because the rating remained within the rating category.
Issue-weighted statistics
Averages that appear in this study are calculated based on the number of issues, rather than the dollar amounts, affected by defaults or rating changes. Although dollar amounts provide information about the portion of the market affected by defaults or rating changes, we believe issue-weighted averages are more useful measures of the performance of ratings.
Average cumulative default rate calculation
The cumulative default rates in this study average the experience of all static pools by first calculating marginal default rates for each possible time horizon and for each static pool, weight-averaging the marginal default rates conditional on survival (survivors being nondefaulters), and accumulating the average conditional marginal default rates.
We calculated conditional default rates by dividing the number of issues in a static pool that default at a specific time horizon by the number of issues that survived (did not default) to that point in time. Weights are based on the number of issues in each static pool. Cumulative default rates are one minus the product of the proportion of survivors (nondefaulters).
Appendix II: Additional Exhibits
Chart 20
Chart 21
Chart 22
Chart 23
Chart 24
Chart 25
Table 15
| Infrastructure Rating Distribution, Jan. 1, 2022 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Number of ratings-- | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | Oil and gas | Transportation | Power | Social infrastructure | Other | |||||||||
| AAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | ||||||||
| AA | 19 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 15 | ||||||||
| A | 191 | 7 | 45 | 7 | 29 | 63 | ||||||||
| BBB | 277 | 84 | 74 | 74 | 44 | 19 | ||||||||
| BB | 40 | 61 | 28 | 59 | 13 | 5 | ||||||||
| B | 15 | 42 | 10 | 20 | 6 | 4 | ||||||||
| CCC/C | 7 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | ||||||||
| Total | 550 | 207 | 174 | 167 | 95 | 109 | ||||||||
| Speculative grade | 62 | 115 | 44 | 85 | 22 | 9 | ||||||||
| --% of ratings-- | ||||||||||||||
| Utilities | Oil and gas | Transportation | Power | Social infrastructure | Other | |||||||||
| AAA | 0 | 0 | 1 | N/A | N/A | 3 | ||||||||
| AA | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | ||||||||
| A | 35 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 31 | 58 | ||||||||
| BBB | 50 | 41 | 43 | 44 | 46 | 17 | ||||||||
| BB | 7 | 29 | 16 | 35 | 14 | 5 | ||||||||
| B | 3 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 4 | ||||||||
| CCC/C | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | ||||||||
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||
| Speculative grade | 11 | 56 | 25 | 51 | 23 | 8 | ||||||||
| N/A--Not applicable. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||
Table 16
| Average Transition Rates For All Infrastructure (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 84.43 | 7.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.44 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.40 | 83.61 | 8.43 | 0.55 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.78 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 1.06 | 86.25 | 5.69 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 6.65 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2.75 | 85.89 | 2.67 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 8.06 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 6.56 | 72.73 | 7.00 | 1.00 | 0.28 | 12.30 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.99 | 9.00 | 67.79 | 7.06 | 1.69 | 13.22 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 2.46 | 10.96 | 55.39 | 14.18 | 15.88 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 57.39 | 14.78 | 1.73 | 1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.57 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.84 | 59.27 | 17.09 | 2.15 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.15 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 2.33 | 64.67 | 11.83 | 0.63 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 19.86 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.01 | 0.04 | 6.62 | 63.55 | 4.25 | 1.20 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 23.04 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 13.02 | 40.30 | 8.90 | 2.35 | 1.51 | 33.63 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.78 | 15.64 | 31.05 | 8.07 | 5.18 | 35.67 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.28 | 3.43 | 11.35 | 16.70 | 26.98 | 39.83 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 36.38 | 16.90 | 1.79 | 4.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40.16 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.97 | 41.32 | 19.85 | 3.47 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.70 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 2.67 | 49.22 | 13.60 | 0.79 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.52 | 32.63 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.03 | 0.05 | 8.37 | 47.31 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 0.78 | 1.14 | 36.54 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 14.23 | 23.79 | 5.94 | 1.96 | 3.15 | 50.23 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 5.14 | 13.25 | 13.13 | 4.63 | 7.29 | 55.87 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.11 | 1.64 | 8.22 | 5.63 | 31.22 | 51.17 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 17
| Average Transition Rates For Corporate Infrastructure Excluding Utilities (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 87.30 | 6.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.51 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.06 | 87.04 | 6.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.89 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.07 | 1.32 | 86.47 | 5.83 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 5.90 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 | 86.97 | 3.34 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 7.82 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.42 | 74.18 | 5.73 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 13.90 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.95 | 7.63 | 71.19 | 6.46 | 0.95 | 12.50 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.01 | 12.65 | 59.04 | 10.24 | 15.06 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 65.66 | 15.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.52 | |||||||||||
| AA | 2.43 | 65.98 | 13.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.90 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.08 | 3.33 | 62.71 | 14.33 | 0.87 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 17.89 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.27 | 66.42 | 5.79 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 0.82 | 22.07 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.96 | 42.13 | 7.08 | 1.38 | 1.10 | 36.34 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 2.94 | 15.06 | 34.52 | 8.69 | 3.43 | 34.64 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 2.13 | 14.89 | 17.02 | 19.86 | 45.39 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 45.55 | 22.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 32.03 | |||||||||||
| AA | 2.95 | 49.44 | 17.70 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.65 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 4.33 | 44.27 | 17.49 | 1.53 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.45 | 31.11 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.59 | 52.40 | 5.77 | 3.23 | 0.92 | 1.62 | 33.47 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 13.55 | 24.91 | 3.79 | 1.15 | 2.18 | 54.19 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 3.48 | 13.93 | 14.22 | 5.22 | 4.64 | 57.33 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.64 | 1.64 | 9.02 | 8.20 | 21.31 | 58.20 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 18
| Average Transition Rates For Utilities (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 82.03 | 8.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.22 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.11 | 82.15 | 9.67 | 0.77 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.97 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 1.12 | 85.73 | 5.75 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 7.07 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.90 | 84.75 | 2.06 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 8.78 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 10.63 | 69.65 | 5.69 | 1.25 | 0.07 | 12.36 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 2.21 | 13.05 | 61.04 | 6.83 | 2.41 | 14.06 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 12.86 | 53.33 | 19.05 | 12.86 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 52.89 | 12.40 | 3.72 | 3.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.69 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.26 | 57.05 | 18.74 | 2.95 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.32 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.06 | 2.45 | 63.91 | 11.88 | 0.63 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 20.49 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.38 | 61.07 | 3.08 | 0.72 | 0.45 | 0.64 | 24.67 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 19.12 | 36.20 | 6.35 | 1.97 | 1.17 | 34.53 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 9.19 | 17.52 | 22.65 | 6.84 | 7.48 | 35.68 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.54 | 2.54 | 9.64 | 16.24 | 32.99 | 36.04 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 34.33 | 11.57 | 3.36 | 8.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 41.79 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.30 | 39.71 | 20.23 | 4.46 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.45 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.08 | 3.14 | 49.18 | 13.31 | 0.82 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 0.48 | 32.61 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.76 | 44.16 | 2.89 | 0.75 | 0.59 | 0.96 | 38.89 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.38 | 20.14 | 19.37 | 5.05 | 1.15 | 2.37 | 50.54 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 12.33 | 12.79 | 5.71 | 3.88 | 10.73 | 53.88 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.72 | 0.53 | 7.45 | 5.32 | 37.23 | 45.74 | |||||||||||
| Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 19
| Average Transition Rates For Project Finance (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 44.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.56 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 78.95 | 5.26 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.04 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 90.61 | 4.89 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.23 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.25 | 87.95 | 3.65 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.07 | 6.29 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.72 | 74.96 | 10.11 | 1.49 | 0.35 | 10.37 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.72 | 68.07 | 8.25 | 2.28 | 13.68 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.58 | 6.54 | 54.25 | 11.76 | 20.92 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 51.79 | 0.00 | 5.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 42.86 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 78.13 | 7.19 | 0.78 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 13.28 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.04 | 0.20 | 3.22 | 67.83 | 6.21 | 2.03 | 1.27 | 0.52 | 18.67 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.88 | 43.85 | 14.26 | 3.83 | 2.36 | 28.71 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 14.79 | 33.46 | 8.17 | 5.84 | 37.16 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.20 | 10.08 | 17.05 | 25.58 | 39.53 | |||||||||||
| From / to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 37.04 | 0.00 | 5.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 57.41 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.19 | 0.00 | 68.05 | 7.94 | 0.76 | 0.95 | 0.19 | 0.57 | 21.36 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.14 | 0.27 | 4.29 | 52.17 | 7.55 | 2.58 | 1.31 | 1.08 | 30.61 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.41 | 29.60 | 9.64 | 3.92 | 5.04 | 43.16 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 12.56 | 18.94 | 4.41 | 7.93 | 55.51 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.45 | 8.62 | 3.45 | 31.90 | 52.59 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 20
| Average Transition Rates For Oil And Gas (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 80.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 80.95 | 14.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.76 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.15 | 0.15 | 84.93 | 7.46 | 0.61 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 6.39 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 | 88.39 | 3.32 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.06 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.70 | 72.63 | 6.26 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 13.97 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 1.19 | 8.01 | 71.66 | 6.08 | 0.74 | 11.87 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.17 | 13.54 | 61.46 | 5.21 | 15.63 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 40.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 52.50 | 27.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.16 | 0.00 | 61.37 | 17.13 | 1.71 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 18.85 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.95 | 71.23 | 5.90 | 1.95 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 18.68 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.69 | 38.75 | 7.02 | 1.04 | 0.78 | 37.71 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 16.17 | 35.83 | 8.87 | 2.09 | 32.00 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 4.00 | 13.33 | 21.33 | 9.33 | 50.67 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 23.68 | 26.32 | 7.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 42.11 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.16 | 0.00 | 45.50 | 21.38 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 29.90 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.45 | 58.94 | 6.16 | 3.44 | 0.66 | 0.20 | 28.15 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 16.43 | 22.95 | 1.55 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 57.21 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 4.59 | 15.24 | 15.87 | 5.64 | 2.51 | 54.49 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.51 | 1.75 | 12.28 | 12.28 | 10.53 | 59.65 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 21
| Average Transition Rates For Power (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | |||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 85.71 | 14.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 78.79 | 17.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.04 | ||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.67 | 89.02 | 3.77 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.25 | 5.11 | ||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 75.62 | 9.58 | 1.02 | 0.87 | 11.18 | ||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.45 | 70.88 | 6.77 | 1.13 | 13.77 | ||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.21 | 9.38 | 54.17 | 12.50 | 18.75 | ||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 40.00 | 60.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 58.23 | 35.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.33 | ||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 1.05 | 70.67 | 5.90 | 3.05 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 16.19 | ||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.25 | 46.02 | 14.51 | 3.72 | 1.59 | 29.91 | ||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.86 | 33.00 | 8.31 | 4.53 | 39.29 | ||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.63 | 15.79 | 14.47 | 30.26 | 36.84 | ||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 43.94 | 39.39 | 1.52 | 3.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.12 | ||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.77 | 55.92 | 6.91 | 3.62 | 1.64 | 3.84 | 27.30 | ||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.84 | 30.25 | 12.64 | 3.84 | 4.06 | 45.37 | ||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 13.55 | 15.06 | 4.82 | 7.23 | 58.73 | ||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.47 | 8.82 | 4.41 | 32.35 | 52.94 | ||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||
Table 22
| Average Transition Rates For Transportation (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 83.33 | 8.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.33 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.53 | 85.88 | 5.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.25 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.93 | 87.76 | 5.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.31 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.87 | 87.37 | 2.90 | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 7.02 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.56 | 78.71 | 6.84 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 9.51 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.44 | 71.90 | 10.74 | 1.65 | 8.26 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.63 | 58.54 | 12.20 | 14.63 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 57.14 | 22.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 4.26 | 61.70 | 10.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 23.40 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 2.43 | 66.67 | 11.92 | 0.66 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.88 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.02 | 64.78 | 6.00 | 0.65 | 1.31 | 0.44 | 21.81 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.90 | 45.24 | 13.81 | 2.86 | 1.43 | 24.76 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 | 12.50 | 44.79 | 11.46 | 4.17 | 26.04 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26.47 | 14.71 | 23.53 | 35.29 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 30.00 | 34.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 36.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 5.91 | 42.36 | 14.29 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 36.95 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 3.24 | 50.27 | 12.97 | 1.08 | 0.27 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 31.35 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.24 | 48.30 | 6.78 | 2.58 | 0.68 | 1.09 | 34.33 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.35 | 25.95 | 16.46 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 33.54 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.85 | 10.26 | 26.92 | 5.13 | 5.13 | 48.72 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.71 | 10.71 | 28.57 | 50.00 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 23
| Average Transition Rates For Social (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | ||||||||||||
| One year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 66.67 | 0.00 | 16.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.67 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 94.15 | 3.38 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.15 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1.91 | 90.28 | 3.09 | 0.44 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 3.83 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.03 | 85.91 | 4.03 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 4.70 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.69 | 15.38 | 53.85 | 15.38 | 0.00 | 7.69 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.67 | 0.00 | 66.67 | 16.67 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| Three year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | 40.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40.00 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 86.97 | 4.98 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.28 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.86 | 5.50 | 74.91 | 7.56 | 1.03 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 9.97 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.48 | 69.67 | 4.10 | 3.28 | 0.00 | 11.48 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.29 | 42.86 | 0.00 | 42.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 0.00 | 16.67 | 50.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| Five year | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 66.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.33 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 79.90 | 7.54 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.56 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 1.26 | 8.81 | 64.15 | 10.90 | 1.05 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 13.42 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.46 | 58.76 | 3.09 | 5.15 | 0.00 | 17.53 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 16.67 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 66.67 | 0.00 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 24
| Average One-Year Transition Rates For Other Finance Ratings (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| From/to | AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | B | CCC/C | D | NR | |||||||||||
| AAA | 87.68 | 4.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.39 | |||||||||||
| AA | 0.85 | 87.44 | 5.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.11 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 2.25 | 89.43 | 2.95 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.20 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 80.55 | 4.61 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 12.84 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.66 | 70.51 | 9.76 | 2.00 | 0.44 | 14.63 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.84 | 64.26 | 8.37 | 3.80 | 16.73 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 3.75 | 52.50 | 15.00 | 22.50 | |||||||||||
| From/to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 67.86 | 11.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.41 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.63 | 67.99 | 12.30 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.90 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 6.62 | 69.02 | 4.70 | 0.21 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 18.16 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.13 | 0.00 | 2.07 | 49.94 | 5.17 | 3.10 | 2.59 | 0.91 | 36.09 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.48 | 37.90 | 11.87 | 3.42 | 4.11 | 36.99 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.50 | 28.91 | 5.86 | 9.38 | 42.58 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 2.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.06 | 3.80 | 16.46 | 25.32 | 46.84 | |||||||||||
| From/to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 52.97 | 15.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31.35 | |||||||||||
| AA | 1.73 | 53.37 | 16.18 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.55 | |||||||||||
| A | 0.26 | 9.45 | 50.92 | 3.67 | 0.52 | 1.31 | 0.26 | 0.79 | 32.81 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 0.40 | 0.00 | 2.56 | 30.59 | 4.58 | 2.43 | 2.29 | 1.75 | 55.39 | |||||||||||
| BB | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.19 | 24.05 | 5.71 | 3.33 | 8.57 | 51.67 | |||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.68 | 14.92 | 2.82 | 10.89 | 61.69 | |||||||||||
| CCC/C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.53 | 6.33 | 1.27 | 29.11 | 60.76 | |||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 25
| Infrastructure Rating Actions Per Year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1/1981 | 1/1/1982 | 1/1/1983 | 1/1/1984 | 1/1/1985 | 1/1/1986 | 1/1/1987 | 1/1/1988 | 1/1/1989 | 1/1/1990 | 1/1/1991 | 1/1/1992 | 1/1/1993 | 1/1/1994 | |||||||||||||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 6 | 20 | 20 | 78 | 36 | 32 | 16 | 18 | 28 | 30 | 24 | 27 | 7 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (40) | (28) | (29) | (28) | (26) | (36) | (46) | (21) | (44) | (29) | (27) | (22) | (36) | (40) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Power | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (3) | (1) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | 0 | (3) | (3) | (3) | (11) | (12) | (1) | (4) | (1) | (2) | (5) | (8) | (3) | (3) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Social | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||||||
| Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | 0 | 0 | (2) | 0 | (2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2) | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/1995 | 1/1/1996 | 1/1/1997 | 1/1/1998 | 1/1/1999 | 1/1/2000 | 1/1/2001 | 1/1/2002 | 1/1/2003 | 1/1/2004 | 1/1/2005 | 1/1/2006 | 1/1/2007 | 1/1/2008 | |||||||||||||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 30 | 28 | 67 | 16 | 54 | 23 | 48 | 25 | 12 | 51 | 63 | 41 | 107 | 78 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (18) | (18) | (29) | (32) | (60) | (76) | (106) | (154) | (134) | (45) | (47) | (39) | (60) | (42) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Power | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 13 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | 0 | 0 | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (11) | (19) | (11) | (7) | (10) | (4) | (5) | (10) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 25 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (3) | (5) | 0 | (4) | (4) | (3) | (5) | (23) | (17) | (25) | (20) | (5) | (13) | (8) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | 0 | 0 | 0 | (3) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | 0 | (8) | (9) | (7) | (9) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Social | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1) | (1) | (3) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 21 | 24 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (2) | (1) | (4) | (10) | (9) | (6) | (8) | (26) | (29) | (11) | (18) | (9) | (7) | (18) | ||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1/1/2009 | 1/1/2010 | 1/1/2011 | 1/1/2012 | 1/1/2013 | 1/1/2014 | 1/1/2015 | 1/1/2016 | 1/1/2017 | 1/1/2018 | 1/1/2019 | 1/1/2020 | 1/1/2021 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 42 | 42 | 48 | 30 | 78 | 34 | 72 | 87 | 73 | 53 | 39 | 9 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (63) | (71) | (67) | (68) | (40) | (25) | (52) | (46) | (45) | (29) | (36) | (57) | (58) | |||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Power | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 4 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (18) | (21) | (10) | (16) | (17) | (15) | (17) | (37) | (18) | (20) | (29) | (24) | (28) | |||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 4 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 20 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 31 | 33 | 21 | 3 | 14 | |||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (11) | (9) | (10) | (22) | (20) | (21) | (26) | (49) | (29) | (20) | (13) | (52) | (22) | |||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 0 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 11 | |||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (15) | (14) | (13) | (16) | (9) | (16) | (16) | (19) | (16) | (8) | (10) | (62) | (11) | |||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Social | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (10) | (5) | (6) | (2) | (5) | (7) | (4) | (4) | (3) | (10) | (3) | (15) | (13) | |||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upgrades | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Downgrades | (22) | (24) | (16) | (11) | (5) | (5) | (2) | (20) | (7) | (18) | (14) | (16) | (14) | |||||||||||||||||
| Defaults | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| N/A--Not applicable. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 26
| All Infrastructure Cumulative Default Rates With Modifier (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA- | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | |||||||||||||||||
| A+ | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.48 | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.78 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 1.08 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | |||||||||||||||||
| A- | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB+ | 0.15 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.79 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.27 | 1.40 | 1.57 | 1.76 | 1.91 | 1.96 | 2.08 | 2.14 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.08 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.95 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 1.42 | 1.62 | 1.79 | 1.94 | 2.11 | 2.28 | 2.47 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB- | 0.14 | 0.57 | 0.89 | 1.18 | 1.45 | 1.71 | 1.96 | 2.19 | 2.33 | 2.40 | 2.53 | 2.62 | 2.81 | 2.92 | 3.04 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB+ | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 1.76 | 2.70 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 3.67 | 3.90 | 4.16 | 4.45 | 4.76 | 4.93 | 5.12 | 5.32 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.71 | 1.04 | 1.66 | 2.12 | 2.53 | 2.75 | 2.88 | 3.14 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.43 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB- | 0.17 | 0.99 | 2.67 | 3.20 | 3.89 | 4.40 | 4.80 | 5.24 | 5.55 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | |||||||||||||||||
| B+ | 0.68 | 2.48 | 3.50 | 4.47 | 4.92 | 5.25 | 5.97 | 6.37 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.53 | 3.12 | 4.80 | 6.04 | 7.17 | 7.97 | 8.39 | 8.85 | 9.61 | 9.89 | 9.89 | 9.89 | 9.89 | 9.89 | 9.89 | |||||||||||||||||
| B- | 3.79 | 6.94 | 8.38 | 10.12 | 11.19 | 12.64 | 12.96 | 13.61 | 14.33 | 15.47 | 15.89 | 16.36 | 16.36 | 16.36 | 16.36 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 14.18 | 21.76 | 25.89 | 28.63 | 29.59 | 30.35 | 31.44 | 32.02 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 1.22 | 1.32 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.59 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.87 | 3.37 | 4.61 | 5.73 | 6.51 | 7.07 | 7.47 | 7.85 | 8.24 | 8.44 | 8.54 | 8.65 | 8.69 | 8.73 | 8.78 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 0.87 | 1.25 | 1.58 | 1.84 | 2.04 | 2.20 | 2.36 | 2.49 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.91 | 2.97 | |||||||||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 27
| Investment-Grade Cumulative Default Rates (%) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | 'A' infrastructure corporates and project finance | 'BBB' infrastructure corporates and project finance | 'A' nonfinancial corporates | 'BBB' nonfinancial corporates | ||||||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.12 | ||||||
| 2 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.35 | ||||||
| 3 | 0.27 | 0.63 | 0.11 | 0.62 | ||||||
| 4 | 0.39 | 0.85 | 0.19 | 0.98 | ||||||
| 5 | 0.50 | 1.04 | 0.30 | 1.39 | ||||||
| 6 | 0.59 | 1.22 | 0.43 | 1.80 | ||||||
| 7 | 0.64 | 1.40 | 0.59 | 2.15 | ||||||
| 8 | 0.69 | 1.59 | 0.74 | 2.49 | ||||||
| 9 | 0.72 | 1.71 | 0.91 | 2.81 | ||||||
| 10 | 0.77 | 1.86 | 1.08 | 3.13 | ||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||
Table 28
| Speculative-Grade Cumulative Default Rates (%) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | 'BB' infrastructure corporates and project finance | 'B' infrastructure corporates and project finance | 'CCC'/'C' infrastructure | 'BB' nonfinancial corporates | 'B' nonfinancial corporates | 'CCC'/'C' nonfinancial corporates | ||||||||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
| 1 | 0.28 | 1.69 | 14.18 | 0.61 | 3.26 | 27.73 | ||||||||
| 2 | 0.69 | 3.73 | 21.76 | 1.97 | 7.73 | 38.64 | ||||||||
| 3 | 1.50 | 5.07 | 25.89 | 3.56 | 11.74 | 44.04 | ||||||||
| 4 | 2.31 | 6.32 | 28.63 | 5.17 | 14.95 | 47.14 | ||||||||
| 5 | 3.01 | 7.14 | 29.59 | 6.68 | 17.45 | 49.45 | ||||||||
| 6 | 3.44 | 7.90 | 30.35 | 8.07 | 19.46 | 50.54 | ||||||||
| 7 | 3.67 | 8.42 | 31.44 | 9.28 | 21.06 | 51.71 | ||||||||
| 8 | 3.96 | 8.90 | 32.02 | 10.39 | 22.34 | 52.37 | ||||||||
| 9 | 4.24 | 9.52 | 32.33 | 11.39 | 23.49 | 53.04 | ||||||||
| 10 | 4.39 | 9.90 | 32.33 | 12.27 | 24.56 | 53.61 | ||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||
Table 29
| Average Cumulative Default Rates (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | ||||||||||||||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 0.85 | 1.04 | 1.22 | 1.40 | 1.59 | 1.71 | 1.86 | 2.03 | 2.16 | 2.30 | 2.43 | 2.56 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.28 | 0.69 | 1.50 | 2.31 | 3.01 | 3.44 | 3.67 | 3.96 | 4.24 | 4.39 | 4.50 | 4.62 | 4.69 | 4.76 | 4.85 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.69 | 3.73 | 5.07 | 6.32 | 7.14 | 7.90 | 8.42 | 8.90 | 9.52 | 9.90 | 10.00 | 10.11 | 10.11 | 10.11 | 10.11 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 14.18 | 21.76 | 25.89 | 28.63 | 29.59 | 30.35 | 31.44 | 32.02 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 1.22 | 1.32 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.59 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.87 | 3.37 | 4.61 | 5.73 | 6.51 | 7.07 | 7.47 | 7.85 | 8.24 | 8.44 | 8.54 | 8.65 | 8.69 | 8.73 | 8.78 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 0.87 | 1.25 | 1.58 | 1.84 | 2.04 | 2.20 | 2.36 | 2.49 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.91 | 2.97 | |||||||||||||||||
| Project finance | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.96 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.58 | 1.99 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.46 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.07 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.98 | 1.07 | 1.18 | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.42 | 1.63 | 1.78 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.35 | 0.91 | 2.38 | 3.54 | 4.77 | 5.62 | 6.14 | 6.85 | 7.48 | 7.82 | 8.01 | 8.22 | 8.47 | 8.75 | 9.08 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 2.28 | 4.68 | 5.46 | 6.29 | 7.18 | 8.16 | 9.23 | 10.11 | 11.07 | 11.41 | 11.41 | 11.41 | 11.41 | 11.41 | 11.41 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 11.76 | 18.07 | 23.64 | 27.88 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | 28.78 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0.65 | 0.86 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 1.63 | 1.82 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.88 | 3.47 | 5.04 | 6.33 | 7.43 | 8.25 | 8.90 | 9.60 | 10.27 | 10.58 | 10.70 | 10.83 | 10.98 | 11.15 | 11.35 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.68 | 1.33 | 1.99 | 2.58 | 3.10 | 3.45 | 3.75 | 4.05 | 4.31 | 4.52 | 4.71 | 4.88 | 5.02 | 5.08 | 5.15 | |||||||||||||||||
| Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.77 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.10 | 0.43 | 0.78 | 1.12 | 1.40 | 1.76 | 2.15 | 2.52 | 2.79 | 3.08 | 3.33 | 3.51 | 3.71 | 4.06 | 4.32 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.46 | 0.62 | 1.08 | 1.60 | 2.17 | 2.43 | 2.73 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.95 | 2.54 | 3.64 | 4.70 | 5.42 | 6.37 | 6.73 | 7.13 | 8.06 | 8.83 | 9.12 | 9.44 | 9.44 | 9.44 | 9.44 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 10.24 | 17.09 | 19.93 | 21.41 | 22.22 | 22.22 | 23.17 | 24.21 | 24.21 | 24.21 | 24.21 | 24.21 | 24.21 | 24.21 | 24.21 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 1.03 | 1.22 | 1.40 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 2.04 | 2.19 | 2.30 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.32 | 2.49 | 3.37 | 4.17 | 4.82 | 5.35 | 5.73 | 6.07 | 6.46 | 6.79 | 6.91 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 7.06 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.45 | 0.94 | 1.34 | 1.71 | 2.02 | 2.31 | 2.55 | 2.77 | 2.96 | 3.14 | 3.26 | 3.39 | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.70 | |||||||||||||||||
| Utilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.14 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.95 | 1.09 | 1.24 | 1.41 | 1.52 | 1.64 | 1.76 | 1.88 | 1.99 | 2.12 | 2.25 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.07 | 0.57 | 1.17 | 1.94 | 2.34 | 2.59 | 2.59 | 2.68 | 2.87 | 2.98 | 3.09 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 2.41 | 4.89 | 7.25 | 9.27 | 10.20 | 10.43 | 10.68 | 10.92 | 10.92 | 10.92 | 10.92 | 10.92 | 10.92 | 10.92 | 10.92 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 19.05 | 28.04 | 32.15 | 34.85 | 35.93 | 37.63 | 39.45 | 40.10 | 40.80 | 40.80 | 40.80 | 40.80 | 40.80 | 40.80 | 40.80 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.84 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 1.06 | 1.14 | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.29 | 1.35 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 2.47 | 4.25 | 5.60 | 6.89 | 7.53 | 7.93 | 8.16 | 8.34 | 8.53 | 8.60 | 8.67 | 8.74 | 8.74 | 8.74 | 8.74 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.37 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 1.26 | 1.43 | 1.56 | 1.66 | 1.77 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.99 | 2.05 | 2.09 | 2.14 | 2.19 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oil and gas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.22 | 0.46 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.74 | 1.70 | 2.40 | 3.15 | 3.97 | 5.09 | 5.34 | 5.34 | 5.66 | 6.01 | 6.01 | 6.01 | 6.01 | 6.01 | 6.01 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 5.21 | 8.85 | 11.46 | 14.36 | 16.01 | 16.01 | 18.06 | 20.27 | 20.27 | 20.27 | 20.27 | 20.27 | 20.27 | 20.27 | 20.27 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 0.72 | 1.43 | 2.07 | 2.60 | 3.11 | 3.57 | 3.77 | 3.89 | 4.02 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.17 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.30 | 0.62 | 0.90 | 1.15 | 1.36 | 1.55 | 1.66 | 1.73 | 1.77 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | |||||||||||||||||
| Power | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 5.21 | 5.21 | 5.21 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.25 | 1.05 | 1.91 | 2.73 | 3.39 | 4.22 | 4.99 | 5.68 | 6.29 | 6.96 | 7.51 | 7.92 | 8.38 | 9.16 | 9.77 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.87 | 1.19 | 1.54 | 2.34 | 3.70 | 4.74 | 5.35 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 5.71 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.13 | 3.02 | 4.28 | 5.38 | 5.99 | 6.35 | 6.77 | 7.75 | 9.46 | 10.78 | 11.54 | 12.45 | 12.45 | 12.45 | 12.45 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 12.50 | 21.83 | 27.32 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | 30.17 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.23 | 0.97 | 1.76 | 2.52 | 3.14 | 3.91 | 4.62 | 5.26 | 5.83 | 6.45 | 6.95 | 7.52 | 8.15 | 8.86 | 9.41 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.87 | 3.46 | 4.52 | 5.58 | 6.54 | 7.23 | 7.72 | 8.28 | 8.93 | 9.42 | 9.71 | 10.04 | 10.04 | 10.04 | 10.04 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.03 | 2.18 | 3.10 | 4.00 | 4.77 | 5.51 | 6.12 | 6.73 | 7.33 | 7.89 | 8.32 | 8.80 | 9.21 | 9.69 | 10.06 | |||||||||||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.42 | 0.66 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1.38 | 1.92 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.55 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.65 | 3.51 | 4.55 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.70 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 12.20 | 17.86 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | 20.90 | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.65 | 2.98 | 4.16 | 4.82 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.29 | 0.61 | 0.90 | 1.11 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | |||||||||||||||||
| Social | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.54 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.67 | 33.33 | 55.56 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 16.67 | 33.33 | 50.00 | 66.67 | 66.67 | 66.67 | 66.67 | 66.67 | 66.67 | 66.67 | 66.67 | 66.67 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 0.60 | 1.26 | 2.00 | 2.83 | 3.76 | 4.83 | 6.09 | 7.61 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | 9.42 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 0.83 | 1.02 | 1.25 | 1.51 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |||||||||||||||||
| Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.45 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.95 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.25 | 0.63 | 0.89 | 1.29 | 1.69 | 1.96 | 2.24 | 2.38 | 2.53 | 2.82 | 3.28 | 3.60 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.95 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.44 | 1.12 | 4.08 | 6.42 | 8.33 | 9.53 | 10.51 | 11.49 | 12.26 | 12.79 | 13.07 | 13.36 | 13.69 | 14.05 | 14.44 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 3.80 | 8.05 | 9.23 | 10.41 | 11.22 | 12.45 | 13.70 | 14.97 | 16.26 | 16.71 | 16.71 | 16.71 | 16.71 | 16.71 | 16.71 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 15.00 | 21.25 | 25.06 | 27.60 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | 28.87 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.09 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.99 | 1.16 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.49 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 2.09 | 2.09 | 2.09 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.02 | 5.44 | 7.90 | 9.88 | 11.36 | 12.44 | 13.40 | 14.38 | 15.24 | 15.68 | 15.84 | 16.01 | 16.19 | 16.40 | 16.63 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.88 | 1.65 | 2.44 | 3.16 | 3.74 | 4.18 | 4.60 | 4.98 | 5.29 | 5.53 | 5.72 | 5.93 | 6.10 | 6.17 | 6.24 | |||||||||||||||||
| N/A--Not applicable. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 30
| All Infrastructure Cumulative Default Rates (1981-2021) (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 0.85 | 1.04 | 1.22 | 1.40 | 1.59 | 1.71 | 1.86 | 2.03 | 2.16 | 2.30 | 2.43 | 2.56 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.28 | 0.69 | 1.50 | 2.31 | 3.01 | 3.44 | 3.67 | 3.96 | 4.24 | 4.39 | 4.50 | 4.62 | 4.69 | 4.76 | 4.85 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 1.69 | 3.73 | 5.07 | 6.32 | 7.14 | 7.90 | 8.42 | 8.90 | 9.52 | 9.90 | 10.00 | 10.11 | 10.11 | 10.11 | 10.11 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 14.18 | 21.76 | 25.89 | 28.63 | 29.59 | 30.35 | 31.44 | 32.02 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | 32.33 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 1.22 | 1.32 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.59 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 1.87 | 3.37 | 4.61 | 5.73 | 6.51 | 7.07 | 7.47 | 7.85 | 8.24 | 8.44 | 8.54 | 8.65 | 8.69 | 8.73 | 8.78 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 0.87 | 1.25 | 1.58 | 1.84 | 2.04 | 2.20 | 2.36 | 2.49 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.91 | 2.97 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate cumulative default rates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.37 | |||||||||||||||||
| AA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.56 | |||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.74 | 0.91 | 1.08 | 1.23 | 1.38 | 1.52 | 1.66 | 1.80 | |||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.62 | 0.98 | 1.39 | 1.80 | 2.15 | 2.49 | 2.81 | 3.13 | 3.43 | 3.66 | 3.85 | 4.06 | 4.28 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 0.61 | 1.97 | 3.56 | 5.17 | 6.68 | 8.07 | 9.28 | 10.39 | 11.39 | 12.27 | 12.99 | 13.67 | 14.31 | 14.86 | 15.44 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 3.26 | 7.73 | 11.74 | 14.95 | 17.45 | 19.46 | 21.06 | 22.34 | 23.49 | 24.56 | 25.47 | 26.18 | 26.85 | 27.45 | 28.04 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC/C | 27.73 | 38.64 | 44.04 | 47.14 | 49.45 | 50.54 | 51.71 | 52.37 | 53.04 | 53.61 | 54.12 | 54.56 | 55.06 | 55.47 | 55.47 | |||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 1.06 | 1.29 | 1.51 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 2.15 | 2.31 | 2.46 | 2.60 | 2.77 | |||||||||||||||||
| Speculative grade | 3.82 | 7.43 | 10.55 | 13.10 | 15.18 | 16.87 | 18.28 | 19.45 | 20.50 | 21.46 | 22.26 | 22.93 | 23.58 | 24.13 | 24.68 | |||||||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.94 | 3.80 | 5.40 | 6.74 | 7.86 | 8.79 | 9.57 | 10.22 | 10.80 | 11.34 | 11.80 | 12.17 | 12.53 | 12.84 | 13.15 | |||||||||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 31
| Marginal Default Rates 1981-2021 (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --Time horizon (years)-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||||||||||||
| All infrastructure | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||
| BB | 0.28 | 0.41 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.44 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.16 | ||||||||||||
| B | 1.69 | 2.08 | 1.39 | 1.31 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.42 | ||||||||||||
| All rated | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||
| Nonfinancial corporate | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| A | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||
| BBB | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.33 | ||||||||||||
| BB | 0.61 | 1.37 | 1.62 | 1.66 | 1.60 | 1.48 | 1.32 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||
| B | 3.26 | 4.62 | 4.34 | 3.64 | 2.94 | 2.43 | 1.99 | 1.62 | 1.48 | 1.40 | ||||||||||||
| All rated | 1.94 | 1.89 | 1.67 | 1.42 | 1.20 | 1.01 | 0.85 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.60 | ||||||||||||
| Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Chart 26
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Chart 31
Chart 32
Chart 33
Chart 34
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Chart 38
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Chart 42
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Chart 44
Table 32
| Infrastructure Rating Distribution By Region Or Country | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | North America* | U.S. | EMEA | Asia-Pacific | Canada | Latin America | Total | |||||||||
| Number of ratings | ||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |||||||||
| AA | 12 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 46 | |||||||||
| A | 178 | 133 | 135 | 24 | 45 | 5 | 342 | |||||||||
| BBB | 256 | 212 | 202 | 64 | 44 | 50 | 572 | |||||||||
| BB | 113 | 97 | 46 | 15 | 16 | 32 | 206 | |||||||||
| B | 67 | 66 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 97 | |||||||||
| CCC/C | 14 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 34 | |||||||||
| % rating distribution by region or country | ||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | N/A | 0 | |||||||||
| AA | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 4 | |||||||||
| A | 28 | 25 | 32 | 19 | 39 | 5 | 26 | |||||||||
| BBB | 40 | 40 | 48 | 50 | 39 | 46 | 44 | |||||||||
| BB | 18 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 30 | 16 | |||||||||
| B | 10 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | |||||||||
| CCC/C | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | |||||||||
| Variance in rating distribution from total by region or country (%) | ||||||||||||||||
| AAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | N/A | 0 | |||||||||
| AA | (2) | (3) | 0 | 12 | 3 | (4) | 0 | |||||||||
| A | 2 | (1) | 6 | (8) | 13 | (22) | 0 | |||||||||
| BBB | (4) | (4) | 4 | 6 | (5) | 2 | 0 | |||||||||
| BB | 2 | 3 | (5) | (4) | (2) | 14 | 0 | |||||||||
| B | 3 | 5 | (3) | (5) | (7) | 1 | 0 | |||||||||
| CCC/C | 0 | 0 | (1) | (2) | (3) | 8 | 0 | |||||||||
| N/A--Not applicable. Ratings as of Jan. 1, 2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. | ||||||||||||||||
Table 33
| Infrastructure Defaults | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issuer | Type | Subsector | Debt type | Country | Region | Default date | Rating prior to default |
| Public Service Co. of New Hampshire | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/28/1988 | CCC |
| Public Service Co. of New Hampshire | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/28/1988 | CCC- |
| Public Service Co. of New Hampshire | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/28/1988 | CCC- |
| Geothermal Resources International Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 8/11/1988 | CC |
| Geothermal Resources International Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 8/11/1988 | CC |
| Columbia Energy Group | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/31/1991 | BB |
| Columbia Energy Group | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/31/1991 | BB |
| Bonneville Pacific Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 12/6/1991 | CCC- |
| Del Norte Funding Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/8/1992 | CCC- |
| Del Norte Funding Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/8/1992 | CCC- |
| El Paso Funding Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/8/1992 | CCC- |
| El Paso Funding Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/8/1992 | CCC- |
| El Paso Electric Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/27/1992 | CCC |
| Mobile Energy Services Co. LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/15/1999 | CCC |
| Southern California Edison Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/18/2001 | CC |
| Southern California Edison Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/18/2001 | CC |
| Southern California Edison Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/18/2001 | CC |
| Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/9/2001 | CC |
| Southern California Edison Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/5/2001 | CC |
| York Power Funding (Cayman) Ltd. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 10/31/2001 | BB- |
| Enron Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/3/2001 | CC |
| Enron Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 12/3/2001 | C |
| Northern Natural Gas Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/3/2001 | CC |
| European Power Ltd. Co. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 12/5/2001 | B- |
| Autopistas del Sol S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 2/1/2002 | CC |
| Teesside Power Financing Ltd. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 2/18/2002 | BB |
| Aguas Argentinas S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 2/19/2002 | CC |
| Covanta Energy LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 3/1/2002 | B |
| Covanta Energy LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 3/1/2002 | B- |
| Covanta Energy LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 3/1/2002 | B- |
| Inversora Electrica de Buenos Aires S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 3/15/2002 | CC |
| Metrogas S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 4/2/2002 | CC |
| Compania de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension TRANSENER S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 4/22/2002 | CC |
| Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN) | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/7/2002 | CC |
| Aguas Argentinas S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/16/2002 | CC |
| Azurix Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/18/2002 | CC |
| Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN) | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 6/26/2002 | CC |
| Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 7/3/2002 | CC |
| Engie Energia Chile S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Chile | Latin America | 9/17/2002 | CC |
| Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 9/17/2002 | CC |
| Energy Group Ltd. (The) | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 10/21/2002 | CC |
| National Energy & Gas Transmission Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/14/2002 | B- |
| TXU Europe Ltd. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 11/20/2002 | CC |
| TXU Eastern Funding Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 11/20/2002 | CC |
| EDF Energy Nuclear Generation Group Ltd. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 2/18/2003 | C |
| CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Brazil | Latin America | 4/23/2003 | CC |
| CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Brazil | Latin America | 4/23/2003 | CC |
| NRG Energy Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/15/2003 | CC |
| Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS) | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/16/2003 | CC |
| Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS) | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/16/2003 | CC |
| USGen New England, Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/8/2003 | C |
| GenOn Energy Holdings Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
| GenOn Mid-Atlantic LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
| GenOn Mid-Atlantic LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
| GenOn Americas LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
| GenOn Americas LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/15/2003 | CC |
| CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Brazil | Latin America | 8/14/2003 | CC |
| CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | Brazil | Latin America | 8/14/2003 | CC |
| NorthWestern Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/15/2003 | CCC |
| NorthWestern Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/15/2003 | CC |
| NorthWestern Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/15/2003 | CCC |
| Avon Energy Partners Holdings | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 1/16/2004 | CC |
| TermoEmcali Funding Corp | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Colombia | Latin America | 9/15/2004 | CC |
| Entergy New Orleans LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/18/2005 | CC |
| Entergy New Orleans LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/18/2005 | CC |
| Calpine Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC- |
| Calpine Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CC |
| Rumford Power Assoc L.P. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC- |
| Calpine Canada Energy Finance ULC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Canada | Canada | 12/21/2005 | CC |
| Calpine Canada Energy Finance II ULC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Canada | Canada | 12/21/2005 | CC |
| RockGen Energy LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC- |
| Broad River Energy LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC- |
| Calpine Generating Co. LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2005 | CCC |
| Eurotunnel S.A. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 8/16/2006 | C |
| Fixed-Link Finance 2 B.V. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Netherlands | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 3/16/2007 | C |
| Autopistas del Sol S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/30/2007 | B- |
| Metronet Rail SSL Finance PLC | Project Finance | Transportation | Senior Secured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 2/29/2008 | CC |
| Metronet Rail BCV Finance PLC | Project Finance | Transportation | Senior Secured | U.K. | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 2/29/2008 | CC |
| Lane Cove Tunnel Finance Co. Pty Ltd. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Australia | Asia-Pacific | 12/8/2008 | CC |
| OOO Mostransavto-Finance | Corporate Infrastructure | Other | Senior Unsecured | Russia | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 12/24/2008 | CC |
| Northeast Biofuels L.P. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/14/2009 | C |
| Fixed-Link Finance B.V. | Project Finance | Other | Junior Subordinated | Netherlands | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 3/4/2009 | C |
| Energy Future Holdings Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/16/2009 | CC |
| Energy Future Holdings Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/16/2009 | CC |
| Vistra Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/16/2009 | CC |
| Energy Future Holdings Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/16/2009 | CC |
| Autopistas del Sol S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 12/17/2009 | CC |
| Bosque Power Co. LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 3/26/2010 | B |
| Metrogas S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Argentina | Latin America | 6/18/2010 | CC |
| Energy Future Holdings Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 8/17/2010 | CC |
| Boston Generating LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 8/18/2010 | CC |
| Vistra Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/21/2010 | CCC |
| Vistra Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/20/2011 | CC |
| Vistra Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/20/2011 | CC |
| Energy Future Holdings Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/2/2011 | CC |
| Energy Future Holdings Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/2/2011 | CC |
| Dynegy Holdings LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/8/2011 | CC |
| Dynegy Danskammer LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/8/2011 | CC |
| Astoria Generating Co. Acquisitions LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/7/2011 | CCC- |
| Par Pacific Holdings Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/19/2011 | CC |
| AES Eastern Energy L.P. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/3/2012 | CC |
| LSP Energy L.P. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/19/2012 | CC |
| Bicent Power LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/20/2012 | CC |
| Homer City Funding LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/10/2012 | CC |
| Energy Future Holdings Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/6/2012 | CC |
| Choctaw Generation L.P. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/14/2012 | CC |
| Midwest Generation, LLC | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/17/2012 | CCC+ |
| Edison Mission Energy | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/17/2012 | CCC- |
| Vistra Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/31/2013 | CC |
| Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/31/2013 | CC |
| Northland Resources A.B. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Sweden | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 3/7/2013 | C |
| Longview Power LLC | Project Finance | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/3/2013 | CCC- |
| CRC Breeze Finance S.A. | Project Finance | Power | Secured Subordinated Debt | Luxembourg | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 10/31/2013 | C |
| Breeze Finance S.A. | Project Finance | Power | Subordinated | Luxembourg | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 10/31/2013 | C |
| Vistra Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/4/2014 | CC |
| Energy Future Holdings Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | C |
| Energy Future Competitive Holdings Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Subordinated | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | C |
| Vistra Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | CC |
| Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | C |
| Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 5/1/2014 | C |
| Windsor Petroleum Transport Corp. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/16/2014 | CCC- |
| Schahin II Finance Company (SPV) Limited | Project Finance | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 10/1/2015 | CC |
| Southcross Holdings Borrower LP | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 3/28/2016 | CC |
| Ukrainian Railways JSC | Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Secured | Ukraine | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 3/31/2016 | CC |
| Odebrecht Oil & Gas Finance Limited | Project Finance | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 4/20/2016 | CC |
| Lombard Public Facilities Corp | Project Finance | Social Infrastructure | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/30/2016 | CC |
| Homer City Generation L.P. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/25/2016 | CC |
| Illinois Power Generating Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 12/19/2016 | CC |
| Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd | Project Finance | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 4/3/2017 | CCC- |
| GenOn Americas LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/14/2017 | CC |
| GenOn Energy Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/14/2017 | CCC- |
| GenOn Energy Inc. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/14/2017 | CCC |
| Corporacion Electrica Nacional, S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Venezuela | Latin America | 11/10/2017 | CC |
| ExGen Texas Power, LLC | Project Finance | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/13/2017 | CCC- |
| Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd | Project Finance | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | Cayman Islands | U.S. | 12/22/2017 | CC |
| Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/24/2018 | CCC- |
| FirstEnergy Generation LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/2/2018 | C |
| Energy Harbor Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Power | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/2/2018 | C |
| Corporacion Electrica Nacional, S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Venezuela | Latin America | 4/24/2018 | CC |
| Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Unsecured | Luxembourg | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 5/9/2018 | B |
| Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A. | Project Finance | Other | Senior Secured | Luxembourg | Europe, Middle East, Africa | 5/9/2018 | B+ |
| Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/29/2019 | CC |
| Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 1/29/2019 | CC |
| PES Holdings, LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 7/3/2019 | B- |
| Panda Green Energy Group Ltd. | Corporate Infrastructure | Utilities | Senior Unsecured | Bermuda | U.S. | 1/21/2020 | CC |
| Longview Power LLC | Project Finance | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 4/14/2020 | CC |
| Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A. | Corporate Infrastructure | Transportation | Senior Secured | Argentina | Latin America | 5/19/2020 | CC |
| Ferrellgas Partners L.P. | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/16/2020 | C |
| CSI Compressco L.P. | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/16/2020 | C |
| Summit Midstream Finance Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 6/23/2020 | CCC- |
| Martin Midstream Partners L.P. | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 8/14/2020 | CC |
| Summit Midstream Finance Corp. | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Unsecured | U.S. | U.S. | 9/25/2020 | CC |
| Frontera Generation Holdings LLC | Project Finance | Power | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 10/23/2020 | CCC |
| Summit Midstream Partners Holdings LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 11/18/2020 | C |
| Glass Mountain Pipeline Holdings LLC | Corporate Infrastructure | Oil & Gas | Senior Secured | U.S. | U.S. | 8/9/2021 | CC |
Related Research
2021 Annual Global Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study, April 13, 2022
The use of the term "methodology" in this article refers to data aggregation and calculation methods used in conducting the research. It does not relate to S&P Global Ratings' methodologies, which are publicly available criteria used to determine credit ratings.
This report does not constitute a rating action.
| Credit Research & Insights: | Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698; nick.kraemer@spglobal.com |
| Evan M Gunter, Montgomery + 1 (212) 438 6412; evan.gunter@spglobal.com | |
| Jon Palmer, CFA, New York 212 438 1989; jon.palmer@spglobal.com |
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