articles Ratings /ratings/en/research/articles/220812-economic-research-u-s-real-time-data-prices-are-cooling-on-weakening-demand-12468610 content esgSubNav
In This List
COMMENTS

Economic Research: U.S. Real-Time Data: Prices Are Cooling On Weakening Demand

COMMENTS

Credit FAQ: How Would China Fare Under 60% U.S. Tariffs?

NEWS

After Trump's Win, What's Next For The U.S. Economy?

COMMENTS

Economic Research: What Other Cases Say About The Potential Effects Of Dollarization In Argentina

COMMENTS

Europe Brief: A Swedish Blueprint To Fix Productivity And Public Finances


Economic Research: U.S. Real-Time Data: Prices Are Cooling On Weakening Demand

S&P Global Ratings Economics' U.S. real-time economic indicators continued to weaken amid high prices and interest rates in early August. Consumer spending is finally softening on higher prices, with Johnson Redbook retail sales decelerating to a 13.5% year-over-year pace, after reaching an all-time high of 18.2% in early January. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remains near its record low from May as the high prices take a bite out of household purchasing power and the stock market sags.

The COVID-19 viral caseload has moderated through Aug. 8 and is only 1% over rates seen a month ago. Mobility readings have also changed little over the last two months. Certain measures of mobility, such as seated diners, air traffic, and Google Community trends for retail and recreation activity, have weakened in August but remain near their 2019 levels (see charts 1-6).

Prices are starting to cool. Although still high, the commodity prices we track continued to fall through Aug. 8. All remain above their 2019 averages. Lumber prices are down by about 69% from an all-time peak on May 7 last year, as housing weakens on higher interest rates. Gasoline prices are also down by $1 from their all-time high on June 13, while metal prices and the cost of shipping goods to the U.S. have fallen from their respective highs. Market participants' long-term inflation expectations ticked higher for the week ended Aug. 8, though they are down sharply from recent peaks on the back of lower energy prices.

Chart 1

image

Chart 2

image

Chart 3

image

Chart 4

image

Chart 5

image

Chart 6

image

Chart 7

image

Chart 8

image

Chart 9

image

Chart 10

image

Chart 11

image

Chart 12

image

Chart 13

image

Chart 14

image

Chart 15

image

Chart 16

image

Chart 17

image

Chart 18

image

Chart 19

image

Chart 20

image

Chart 21

image

Chart 22

image

Chart 23

image

This report does not constitute a rating action.

U.S. Chief Economist:Beth Ann Bovino, New York + 1 (212) 438 1652;
bethann.bovino@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:Joseph Arthur, Des Moines;
joseph.arthur@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Shruti Galwankar, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P’s opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment, and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors, and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. Rating-related publications may be published for a variety of reasons that are not necessarily dependent on action by rating committees, including, but not limited to, the publication of a periodic update on a credit rating and related analyses.

To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof.

S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process.

S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.spglobal.com/ratings (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.spglobal.com/usratingsfees.

 

Create a free account to unlock the article.

Gain access to exclusive research, events and more.

Already have an account?    Sign in