This report does not constitute a rating action.
Key Takeaways
- With $539.6 billion of gross long-term commercial borrowing likely in 2022, emerging markets' (EM) commercial debt issuance in EMEA is set to remain stubbornly above pre-pandemic levels.
- EMEA EM sovereigns' commercial debt should reach an equivalent of $3.4 trillion by end-2022, a year-on-year increase of $253 billion.
- Egypt will likely replace Turkey as the largest EMEA EM sovereign issuer, with issuance of $73 billion-equivalent in 2022. Turkey's commercial borrowing in 2022 in dollar terms will fall materially in 2022, largely on exchange-rate effects, we assume.
The commercial borrowing of emerging market sovereigns in Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) will likely stay well above pre-pandemic levels in 2022. Such debt should rise $253 billion in 2022, hitting $3.4 trillion-equivalent by year-end. S&P Global Ratings expects these markets to maintain high borrowing levels in 2022 to manage external risks, including rising inflation, rate hikes, and lingering COVID effects.
Our estimates pre-date the conflict in Ukraine, which is likely to increase gross commercial borrowing for most of the 54 emerging EMEA sovereigns included in this survey. This excludes the larger hydrocarbon exporters, which are benefiting from Brent oil prices of over $100.
The commercial debt of emerging markets (EMs) in EMEA should end 2022 at 37% of combined GDP, up considerably from 31% in 2016. The spike reflects an accumulation of shocks over the past six years, but most importantly:
- Persistently high fiscal deficits in Egypt and Romania;
- A run-up in commercial borrowing by Oman and Saudi Arabia to finance the gap between market oil prices and fiscal break-even prices (although fiscal assets increased nearly as rapidly) particularly during 2017, 2019, and 2020; and
- The fiscal costs of the global pandemic.
Of the 55 EMEA EM sovereigns included in this survey, the commercial debt levels of nine have more than doubled in dollar terms since 2016: The Emirate of Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Uganda, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Romania. Sub-Saharan sovereign commercial debt levels (excluding South Africa), while very much on the rise, only make up 8.4% of total sovereign commercial debt in dollar terms in the EM EMEA region. This reflects a reliance in many cases on concessional sources of financing. Commercial debt outstanding only $40 billion in exceeds four sub-Saharan African sovereigns, namely the region's largest economies: Ghana, Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa. At the other end of the scale, we project the largest five EMEA EM issuers together account for just under one-third of gross commercial borrowing for 2022 in dollar terms, including: Egypt, Russia, Poland, Turkey, and Israel.
For Ghana, the government of Georgia, and Montenegro, we project the dollar value of the stock of outstanding commercial debt will decline during 2022, given a fairly high share of local-currency debt and considerable exchange-rate depreciation. The dollar value of gross commercial debt is also projected to fall somewhat in the case of GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) sovereigns and Angola, given these oil exporters are projected to operate budgetary surpluses this year. Finally, debt forgiveness and restructuring should reduce commercial debt for Zambia.
Our projections were finalized before the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, and do not reflect rising costs for defense, the intake of refugees, and spending on food and energy subsidies. Taken together these factors could push up net borrowing by as much as 1.6% of the GDP in Poland and Hungary; and by as much as half that in Egypt and Turkey.
Table 1
| Sovereign Commercial Issuance And Debt | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Bil. $) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022f | |||||||||
| Gross long-term commercial borrowing | 460.1 | 457.7 | 386.3 | 451.7 | 689.5 | 540.6 | 539.6 | |||||||||
| Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt | 199.1 | 218.3 | 200.1 | 230.8 | 268.1 | 277.0 | 303.5 | |||||||||
| Of which net long-term commercial borrowing | 261.0 | 239.4 | 182.7 | 221.0 | 421.5 | 263.6 | 236.1 | |||||||||
| Total commercial debt stock (year end) | 2142.6 | 2308.5 | 2308.6 | 2562.6 | 2964.4 | 3137.2 | 3390.1 | |||||||||
| Of which short-term debt | 282.8 | 234.4 | 246.4 | 288.8 | 312.2 | 290.7 | 286.3 | |||||||||
| Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year | 1859.7 | 2074.1 | 2062.2 | 2273.8 | 2652.2 | 2846.6 | 3103.8 | |||||||||
| (% GDP) | ||||||||||||||||
| Gross long-term commercial borrowing (% GDP) | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 5.9 | |||||||||
| Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt (% GDP) | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | |||||||||
| Of which net long-term commercial borrowing (% GDP) | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | |||||||||
| Total commecial debt stock (year end) (% GDP) | 30.1 | 30.1 | 28.2 | 30.6 | 38.0 | 35.7 | 37.0 | |||||||||
| Of which short-term debt (% GDP) | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.1 | |||||||||
| Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year (% GDP) | 26.2 | 27.0 | 25.2 | 27.1 | 34.0 | 32.4 | 33.9 | |||||||||
| e--Estimate. f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||
Chart 1
We forecast that just over 40% of commercial sovereign debt in 2022 will be issued by sovereigns with an investment-grade ('BBB-' or higher) foreign-currency rating (see the lower part of table 2). This is a significant drop from the roughly 50% level in 2021, and reflects:
- The downgrade of the long-term foreign currency rating on Morocco to 'BB+' on April 2, 2021;
- Notable declines in gross issuance by hydrocarbon producer Qatar; and
- Our projection for fiscal consolidation in Hungary and Israel. This estimate was based on pre-conflict assumptions.
By ratings, sovereigns within the 'B' category will remain the most active issuers, issuing about 38% of commercial sovereign debt. Within this category, Egypt and Turkey will together likely accounting for 58% of such issuance. That said, Turkey's commercial borrowing in 2022 in dollar terms will fall materially in 2022, largely on exchange-rate effects, in our opinion.
For 2022, Egypt will replace Turkey as the largest EMEA EM sovereign issuer in the sample. We project issuance of $73 billion-equivalent for the sovereign, referencing early-March exchange rates. This is sharply up from $63 billion in issuance last year. Including short-term debt, Egypt also faces the highest rollover rate of all 54 EMEA EM sovereigns at 33.5% of GDP, we estimate, followed by Bahrain (24.9% of GDP), and Kenya (24.7% of GDP). This would imply these governments will be particularly sensitive to the rising cost of external refinancing via monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve (though less so for Kenya given that most of its commercial sovereign debt is denominated in shillings, and primarily held by domestic residents).
Chart 2
Table 2
| Gross Commercial Long-Term Borrowing | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Bil. $) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022f | Share of 2022f total borrowing (%) | |||||||||
| Abu Dhabi (Emirate of) | 10.0 | 0.0 | 13.9 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 13.2 | 2.4 | |||||||||
| Albania | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Angola | 23.0 | 25.6 | 27.4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 1.6 | |||||||||
| Armenia | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Azerbaijan | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Bahrain | 6.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Belarus | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Benin | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Botswana | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Bulgaria | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Burkina Faso | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Cameroon | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Cape Verde | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Congo-Brazzaville | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Cote d Ivoire | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Croatia | 6.1 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 1.1 | |||||||||
| Egypt | 33.6 | 38.1 | 45.4 | 56.5 | 63.0 | 73.4 | 13.6 | |||||||||
| Ethiopia | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 1.6 | |||||||||
| Georgia (Government of) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Ghana | 4.8 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 1.8 | |||||||||
| Hungary | 17.0 | 17.9 | 26.7 | 38.4 | 32.6 | 19.8 | 3.7 | |||||||||
| Iraq | 6.3 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 24.7 | 14.9 | 15.9 | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Israel | 28.5 | 27.9 | 34.9 | 77.1 | 52.4 | 41.1 | 7.6 | |||||||||
| Jordan | 7.5 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Kazakhstan | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 1.2 | |||||||||
| Kenya | 6.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 0.8 | |||||||||
| Kuwait | 14.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.7 | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Lebanon | 15.7 | 18.6 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Montenegro | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Morocco | 11.4 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 15.6 | 14.0 | 16.1 | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Mozambique | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Nigeria | 10.7 | 37.2 | 11.0 | 15.4 | 15.7 | 9.1 | 1.7 | |||||||||
| North Macedonia | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Oman | 10.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Poland | 32.9 | 33.8 | 35.9 | 48.0 | 34.8 | 44.5 | 8.3 | |||||||||
| Qatar | 19.5 | 0.0 | 21.2 | 24.1 | 24.5 | 3.3 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Romania | 12.3 | 16.8 | 18.8 | 32.7 | 24.1 | 28.2 | 5.2 | |||||||||
| Russia | 37.1 | 21.4 | 38.4 | 74.5 | 36.1 | 47.9 | 8.9 | |||||||||
| Rwanda | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 37.1 | 32.9 | 12.0 | 56.9 | 32.3 | 32.9 | 6.1 | |||||||||
| Senegal | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Serbia | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 0.7 | |||||||||
| Sharjah (Emirate of) | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 0.8 | |||||||||
| South Africa | 17.5 | 15.7 | 21.5 | 32.3 | 22.3 | 28.0 | 5.2 | |||||||||
| St. Helena | N.A. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Tajikistan | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Togo | N.A. | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Turkey | 44.8 | 32.6 | 45.3 | 62.4 | 60.8 | 43.5 | 8.1 | |||||||||
| Uganda | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Ukraine | 16.4 | 4.6 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 2.3 | |||||||||
| Uzbekistan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Zambia | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Total commercial borrowing | 539.6 | |||||||||||||||
| Breakdown by foreign currency rating category | ||||||||||||||||
| (Bil. $) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022f | Share of 2022f total borrowing (%) | |||||||||
| AAA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| AA | 58.0 | 27.9 | 70.1 | 116.2 | 82.9 | 57.5 | 10.7 | |||||||||
| A | 84.8 | 66.7 | 47.9 | 105.0 | 67.2 | 91.1 | 16.9 | |||||||||
| BBB | 42.7 | 45.2 | 59.5 | 94.3 | 73.7 | 71.1 | 13.2 | |||||||||
| BB | 35.7 | 32.9 | 39.9 | 62.2 | 48.9 | 53.3 | 9.9 | |||||||||
| B | 175.6 | 167.8 | 180.2 | 224.1 | 219.5 | 202.4 | 37.5 | |||||||||
| CCC | 6.0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 2.4 | |||||||||
| SD | 17.8 | 20.6 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| e--Estimate. f--Forecast. N.A.--Not available. SD--Selective default. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||
Table 3
| Total Commercial Debt At Year-End (Long- And Short-Term) | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Bil. $) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022f | Share of 2022f total commercial debt (%) | |||||||||
| Abu Dhabi (Emirate of) | 17.6 | 17.3 | 29.4 | 43.9 | 46.9 | 58.6 | 1.7 | |||||||||
| Albania | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Angola | 60.4 | 56.9 | 51.4 | 51.7 | 53.0 | 50.7 | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Armenia | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | 2.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Azerbaijan | 11.4 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Bahrain | 28.2 | 31.8 | 31.5 | 38.8 | 43.7 | 43.2 | 1.3 | |||||||||
| Belarus | 6.9 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Benin | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Botswana | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Bulgaria | 12.4 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 15.1 | 15.9 | 19.7 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Burkina Faso | 1.9 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Cameroon | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Cape Verde | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Congo-Brazzaville | 3.7 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Cote d Ivoire | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | 20.9 | 23.0 | 24.6 | 0.7 | |||||||||
| Croatia | 34.8 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 42.7 | 42.0 | 42.8 | 1.3 | |||||||||
| Egypt | 184.9 | 225.9 | 251.9 | 291.1 | 348.4 | 391.8 | 11.6 | |||||||||
| Ethiopia | 11.3 | 11.9 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 14.8 | 18.7 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Georgia (Government of) | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Ghana | 26.0 | 25.2 | 26.6 | 35.9 | 40.5 | 39.8 | 1.2 | |||||||||
| Hungary | 94.7 | 94.5 | 93.1 | 114.7 | 116.2 | 127.1 | 3.7 | |||||||||
| Iraq | 73.7 | 42.8 | 53.5 | 56.6 | 63.2 | 70.9 | 2.1 | |||||||||
| Israel | 215.5 | 210.4 | 238.2 | 306.0 | 332.1 | 341.2 | 10.1 | |||||||||
| Jordan | 31.0 | 27.5 | 29.5 | 32.2 | 33.5 | 34.5 | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Kazakhstan | 23.4 | 23.6 | 27.3 | 32.6 | 34.0 | 36.6 | 1.1 | |||||||||
| Kenya | 26.5 | 32.3 | 36.7 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 22.7 | 0.7 | |||||||||
| Kuwait | 23.7 | 19.6 | 14.8 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 19.3 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Lebanon | 77.3 | 83.0 | 89.6 | 50.6 | 30.2 | 26.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||
| Montenegro | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Morocco | 62.7 | 64.5 | 66.3 | 79.3 | 84.6 | 91.4 | 2.7 | |||||||||
| Mozambique | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Nigeria | 49.2 | 44.5 | 58.2 | 59.4 | 65.8 | 72.1 | 2.1 | |||||||||
| North Macedonia | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Oman | 20.4 | 35.7 | 42.2 | 47.4 | 49.9 | 51.5 | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Poland | 239.6 | 228.2 | 228.4 | 260.6 | 253.7 | 264.7 | 7.8 | |||||||||
| Qatar | 83.0 | 95.3 | 109.5 | 104.9 | 112.9 | 109.0 | 3.2 | |||||||||
| Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Romania | 73.9 | 80.5 | 89.3 | 123.5 | 141.9 | 154.3 | 4.6 | |||||||||
| Russia | 164.0 | 148.1 | 191.4 | 228.5 | 251.2 | 292.1 | 8.6 | |||||||||
| Rwanda | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 118.1 | 128.4 | 159.8 | 200.5 | 221.0 | 250.2 | 7.4 | |||||||||
| Senegal | 4.9 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Serbia | 15.5 | 14.2 | 14.5 | 20.1 | 21.9 | 23.2 | 0.7 | |||||||||
| Sharjah (Emirate of) | 4.9 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 15.1 | 17.6 | 0.5 | |||||||||
| South Africa | 202.2 | 193.9 | 209.3 | 262.3 | 278.0 | 300.4 | 8.9 | |||||||||
| St. Helena | N.A. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Tajikistan | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Togo | N.A. | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Turkey | 209.3 | 182.6 | 204.5 | 226.6 | 193.4 | 203.7 | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Uganda | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Ukraine | 47.2 | 49.8 | 58.3 | 60.7 | 61.4 | 67.3 | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Uzbekistan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Zambia | 10.4 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 19.5 | 18.9 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Total commercial debt 2022f | 3390.1 | |||||||||||||||
| Breakdown by foreign currency rating category | ||||||||||||||||
| (Bil. $) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022f | Share of 2022f total commercial debt (%) | |||||||||
| AAA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| AA | 316.2 | 323.0 | 377.1 | 454.8 | 491.9 | 508.9 | 15.0 | |||||||||
| A | 381.5 | 377.4 | 404.2 | 473.5 | 486.6 | 535.2 | 15.8 | |||||||||
| BBB | 245.1 | 252.9 | 266.2 | 341.9 | 367.6 | 400.8 | 11.8 | |||||||||
| BB | 297.5 | 290.0 | 306.5 | 395.2 | 420.9 | 454.3 | 13.4 | |||||||||
| B | 786.0 | 787.2 | 880.4 | 967.6 | 1028.3 | 1107.2 | 32.7 | |||||||||
| CCC | 30.6 | 35.4 | 34.3 | 38.3 | 41.1 | 45.9 | 1.4 | |||||||||
| SD | 87.7 | 94.6 | 102.6 | 64.5 | 49.7 | 45.7 | 1.3 | |||||||||
| e--Estimate. f--Forecast. N.A.--Not available. SD--Selective default. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||
Chart 3
Table 4
| Central Government Rollover Ratios And Debt Structure (% Of Total Debt, Including Bi-/Multilateral) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Commercial debt (% of total) | Short-term debt (% of total) | Foreign currency debt (% of total) | Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) | Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) | Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) | Rollover ratio (% of total debt) | Rollover ratio (% of GDP) | Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) | ||||||||||||
| Abu Dhabi (Emirate of) | 100.0 | 0.0 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| Albania | 71.4 | 15.2 | 49.8 | 65.1 | 0.0 | 28.6 | 26.1 | 19.0 | 27.8 | |||||||||||
| Angola | 80.1 | 1.1 | 76.5 | 54.7 | 0.0 | 19.9 | 14.7 | 9.8 | 20.8 | |||||||||||
| Armenia | 48.4 | 1.2 | 71.7 | 81.6 | 0.0 | 51.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 50.4 | |||||||||||
| Azerbaijan | 31.6 | 0.0 | 84.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 68.4 | 13.9 | 2.1 | 65.9 | |||||||||||
| Bahrain | 84.2 | 12.3 | 72.4 | 74.6 | 0.0 | 15.8 | 18.1 | 24.9 | 18.2 | |||||||||||
| Belarus | 35.7 | 0.0 | 97.6 | 62.8 | 0.0 | 64.3 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 68.1 | |||||||||||
| Benin | 61.4 | 10.4 | 68.5 | 88.1 | 38.6 | 22.7 | 11.5 | 37.7 | ||||||||||||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 60.9 | 0.0 | 99.2 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 99.5 | |||||||||||
| Botswana | 55.9 | 9.2 | 44.2 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 44.2 | 16.6 | 4.3 | 45.0 | |||||||||||
| Bulgaria | 86.5 | 0.0 | 73.8 | 98.7 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 10.5 | |||||||||||
| Burkina Faso | 50.1 | 10.3 | 50.6 | 89.2 | 0.0 | 49.9 | 18.2 | 9.2 | 49.0 | |||||||||||
| Cameroon | 38.6 | 4.0 | 71.6 | 77.2 | 0.0 | 61.4 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 63.6 | |||||||||||
| Cape Verde | 28.0 | 2.2 | 72.0 | 98.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 69.9 | |||||||||||
| Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) | 39.6 | 2.3 | 65.0 | 97.7 | 0.0 | 60.4 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 60.4 | |||||||||||
| Congo-Brazzaville | 60.6 | 0.0 | 72.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 39.4 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 40.2 | |||||||||||
| Cote d Ivoire | 66.5 | 6.0 | 66.5 | 87.4 | 0.0 | 33.6 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 33.6 | |||||||||||
| Croatia | 90.9 | 8.1 | 43.5 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 17.8 | 12.1 | 8.7 | |||||||||||
| Egypt | 86.8 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 74.3 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 33.7 | 33.5 | 12.2 | |||||||||||
| Ethiopia | 44.4 | 8.3 | 58.6 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 55.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 49.5 | |||||||||||
| Georgia (Government of) | 24.7 | 0.9 | 80.5 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 75.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 78.6 | |||||||||||
| Ghana | 72.5 | 11.2 | 47.4 | 71.5 | 17.4 | 27.5 | 19.3 | 14.5 | 26.0 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 93.5 | 4.3 | 20.7 | 76.9 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 14.8 | 10.9 | 7.0 | |||||||||||
| Iraq | 51.4 | 0.0 | 60.7 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 48.6 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 47.0 | |||||||||||
| Israel | 100.0 | 0.6 | 14.4 | 45.6 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| Jordan | 74.2 | 0.3 | 45.3 | 89.1 | 0.0 | 25.8 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 26.9 | |||||||||||
| Kazakhstan | 81.0 | 0.0 | 40.9 | 85.0 | 6.0 | 19.0 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 19.0 | |||||||||||
| Kenya | 30.0 | 35.0 | 50.0 | 52.0 | 13.0 | 70.0 | 36.9 | 24.7 | 70.0 | |||||||||||
| Kuwait | 100.0 | 0.0 | 75.3 | 84.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.9 | 3.6 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| Lebanon | 98.0 | 0.5 | 87.3 | 95.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | |||||||||||
| Montenegro | 67.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 74.8 | 0.0 | 32.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 35.1 | |||||||||||
| Morocco | 85.0 | 2.9 | 23.9 | 90.4 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 15.1 | |||||||||||
| Mozambique | 41.2 | 5.6 | 72.1 | 44.1 | 50.4 | 58.8 | 12.5 | 13.7 | 59.9 | |||||||||||
| Nigeria | 75.4 | 8.1 | 41.0 | 89.1 | 24.6 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 24.0 | ||||||||||||
| North Macedonia | 78.5 | 8.8 | 75.8 | 78.5 | 0.0 | 21.5 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 20.1 | |||||||||||
| Oman | 91.7 | 5.6 | 74.4 | 74.4 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 17.7 | 11.1 | 9.5 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 91.2 | 0.5 | 24.5 | 72.5 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 9.2 | |||||||||||
| Qatar | 100.0 | 0.0 | 56.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| Romania | 92.0 | 15.3 | 47.6 | 81.8 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 23.2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | |||||||||||
| Russia | 99.3 | 0.0 | 16.2 | 74.2 | 25.1 | 0.7 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | |||||||||||
| Rwanda | 27.2 | 8.8 | 79.3 | 86.6 | 0.0 | 72.8 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 72.8 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 97.0 | 20.0 | 41.3 | 64.0 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 25.5 | 7.7 | 3.0 | |||||||||||
| Senegal | 45.8 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 54.2 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 54.2 | |||||||||||
| Serbia | 65.9 | 0.0 | 70.2 | 88.1 | 0.0 | 34.1 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 33.1 | |||||||||||
| Sharjah (Emirate of) | 100.0 | 6.7 | 77.7 | 60.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 97.3 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 59.2 | 19.4 | 2.7 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 1.9 | |||||||||||
| St. Helena | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | 0.0 | N.M. | |||||||||||
| Tajikistan | 14.7 | 2.6 | 87.7 | 97.4 | 0.0 | 85.3 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 87.1 | |||||||||||
| Togo | 79.9 | 0.0 | 30.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 20.1 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 20.1 | |||||||||||
| Turkey | 88.0 | 0.8 | 66.0 | 69.0 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 11.1 | |||||||||||
| Uganda | 42.3 | 13.1 | 63.2 | 80.5 | 0.0 | 57.7 | 15.7 | 8.1 | 57.7 | |||||||||||
| Ukraine | 73.5 | 3.1 | 60.0 | 75.4 | 6.1 | 26.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 27.2 | |||||||||||
| Uzbekistan | 11.1 | 0.7 | 98.9 | 69.6 | 0.0 | 88.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 88.8 | |||||||||||
| Zambia | 70.8 | 15.0 | 65.0 | 72.3 | 12.8 | 29.3 | 18.3 | 21.9 | 29.3 | |||||||||||
| Breakdown by foreign currency rating category | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Commercial debt (% of total) | Short-term debt (% of total) | Foreign currency debt (% of total) | Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) | Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) | Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) | Rollover ratio (% of total debt) | Rollover ratio (% of GDP) | Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) | ||||||||||||
| AAA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| AA | 100.0 | 0.4 | 31.2 | 62.4 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| A | 94.0 | 9.1 | 33.1 | 69.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 18.7 | 6.3 | 6.1 | |||||||||||
| BBB | 90.8 | 8.4 | 40.4 | 79.3 | 3.9 | 9.2 | 17.3 | 8.5 | 9.7 | |||||||||||
| BB | 83.5 | 7.1 | 29.2 | 70.8 | 11.0 | 16.5 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 16.1 | |||||||||||
| B | 74.6 | 11.8 | 50.7 | 74.9 | 3.4 | 25.4 | 20.3 | 11.6 | 25.1 | |||||||||||
| CCC | 44.2 | 5.0 | 71.4 | 65.0 | 9.4 | 55.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 54.9 | |||||||||||
| SD | 85.1 | 7.4 | 76.7 | 84.5 | 6.0 | 14.9 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 15.5 | |||||||||||
| f--Forecast. N/A.--Not applicable. SD--Selective default. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Chart 4
Factors Considered In Our Estimates
Our estimates focus on debt issued by a central government in its own name. We exclude local government and social security debt, as well as debt issued by other public bodies and government-guaranteed obligations. In terms of commercial debt instruments, our estimates for long-term borrowing include bonds with tenors of more than one year, issued either on publicly listed markets or sold as private placements, as well as commercial bank loans.
In addition to commercial debt, some of the estimates we use in this study encompass bilateral and multilateral debt. We do not include government debt that may be issued by some central banks for monetary-policy purposes. All reported forecast figures are our own estimates and do not necessarily reflect the issuers' projections. We factor in our expectations regarding central government deficits, our assessment of governments' potential extra-budgetary funding needs, and our estimates of debt maturities. Assumptions that we express in dollars are subject to exchange-rate variations. Note that these projections were made prior to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore do not reflect upside pressures on budgetary spending for food and energy importers.
Chart 5
Editing: Jasper Moiseiwitsch
Digital design: Joe Carrick-Varty
Related Research
- For an interactive version of our global and regional borrowing forecasts see "Global Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2022"
- Sovereign Debt 2022: Borrowing Will Stay High On Pandemic And Geopolitical Tensions, April 5, 2022
- Credit Conditions: Credit Conditions Emerging Markets Q2 2022: Conflict Exacerbates Risks, March 29, 2022
- EMEA Emerging Markets Sovereign Rating Trends 2022: Stable Overall But Fiscal, External, And Geopolitical Risks Predominate, Jan. 27, 2022
- For a full list of our sovereign ratings see "Sovereign Ratings List", updated monthly on RatingsDirect
| Primary Credit Analyst: | Frank Gill, Madrid + 34 91 788 7213; frank.gill@spglobal.com |
| Secondary Contact: | Michelle Keferstein, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-104; michelle.keferstein@spglobal.com |
| CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai: | Hari Krishan, Pune; hari.krishan@spglobal.com |
| Additional Contact: | Sovereign and IPF EMEA; SOVIPF@spglobal.com |
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