Another Year Of Strong Growth Bodes Well For The Stability Of Most Developed Sovereign Ratings In Europe

The 23 stable outlooks in the developed European rated universe indicate ratings that are not likely to change in 2022.   In nominal terms, most European economies have recovered to at least the 2019 level. The remaining supply-chain bottlenecks contributed to rising price inflation, although wages have not yet followed. Despite rising prices and the spread of the omicron variant in late 2021, we forecast real GDP in the euro area will grow by 4.4% this year, following an estimated rebound of 5.1% in 2021 (see "Economic Research: Eurozone Economic Outlook 2022: A Look Inside The Recovery," published on Nov. 30, 2021).

In 2021, we revised the outlooks on Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, and Italy to positive.   These actions were based on the supportive policy response to the pandemic led by the ECB and EU, which facilitated progress in implementing structural reforms in those four sovereigns. In 2022 and beyond, we expect to see robust growth supporting budgetary consolidation in those economies.

In Italy, an ambitious reform program, the Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), aims to implement a comprehensive modernization of the Italian state and economy.   A steering committee overseen by the prime minister, Mario Draghi, will oversee targeted reforms. Draghi heads up a grand coalition of nine parties, which control large majorities in both houses of parliament. Last year, Italy implemented reforms pertaining to the judicial system, market competition, and public administration. By 2026, the EU is set to disburse an amount equal to 11.8% of Italy's GDP, in loans and grants through the NGEU, to help it invest in digitization, transportation links, and energy infrastructure.

It is unclear who will replace outgoing president, Sergio Mattarella, when his term ends on Feb. 3, 2022.   If the Italian parliament appoints Mr. Draghi, it will leave the prime minister's office empty, which increases the risk that the current unity government could dissolve, triggering early elections. This might disrupt the implementation of reforms under Italy's PNRR. Nevertheless, in our base-case scenario, we assume that the economy will expand by 4.7% this year, and that the Italian government will focus on implementing the remaining PNRR reforms. Our view is supported by the relatively uncontroversial parliamentary approval of the 2022 budget on Dec. 30, 2021.

The Greek economy has undergone significant structural reforms over the past decade and will benefit substantially from available facilities under the NGEU agreement.   Greece is set to receive grants of €17.8 billion (about 10% of 2021 GDP) by 2026 and loans of €12.7 billion (7% of GDP). These will support the country's green transition, digitalization, and reforms to the labor market and public administration. If used efficiently, we consider these funds could fast-track structural improvements in the economy, contribute to stronger growth, and benefit balance-of-payment developments during 2021-2026.

Our outlook on Spain remains negative.   Although almost 90% of the adult population is vaccinated in the country and the Spanish and European policy response to the pandemic should yield higher growth and a re-energized reform agenda, the implementation risks are considerable. The current government is constrained by its lack of a parliamentary majority, in our view. Efforts to narrow significantly the budget deficit in the medium term could falter if the governing coalition cannot address Spain's long-standing financing gap in its social security system. We do not think that the recent pension reform will be sufficient to fully contain the rising burden of pensions, given the magnitude of the demographic shift. Further increases in employment would help to ease the pressure. Spain's rate of unemployment, at 14.1%, is the highest in the euro area; Greek unemployment fell below Spain's in June of last year. Although it is too early to assess the impact of the proposed labor market reform, we view as positive the reform's focus on reducing the use of temporary employment contracts. About a quarter of the workforce relies on such contracts. That said, we do not think that the proposal will transform the labor market in a way that would meaningfully lower Spain's rate of unemployment. The government has historically relied on the economic cycle for budgetary consolidation. Momentum on government debt reduction could therefore stall as soon as 2023, unless it implements additional deficit-reducing, structural budgetary measures. One positive factor for 2022 and beyond is the potential for a buoyant recovery in Spain's tourism sector, which accounts for just under 12% of GDP, and 13.5% of employment.

Ratings In Europe Have Diverged Since The Global Financial Crisis

Today, 11 notches separate our 'BB' rating on Greece from our 'AAA' ratings on Denmark, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland.   The region's developed sovereigns have a wide array of institutional, external, budgetary, financial, and economic circumstances and prospects, which affect our ratings on them. The average European developed sovereign rating remains more than one notch lower than in 2007. Although external imbalances and private sector indebtedness have declined since the last economic and financial crisis, the pandemic exacerbated some of the vulnerabilities reflected in our sovereign ratings. In particular, sovereigns that had undertaken insufficient budgetary consolidation or already had high government debt at the start of the pandemic found themselves more fiscally constrained. It was therefore harder for them to address the economic effects of COVID-19 than it was for countries that had managed to lower their government debt in GDP terms.

Fiscal And Monetary Policies Still Designed To Support Growth

Government debt in Belgium, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain is now above 100% of GDP.   Over the past two years, European governments have been deploying comprehensive emergency measures to safeguard incomes and shield businesses from the pandemic's temporary, but severe, liquidity shock. This budgetary support resulted in very large budget deficits. This reopened the debate about the need to reform EU fiscal rules; we expect the debate to continue throughout 2022.

Offering budgetary support has allowed employment to recover quickly and smoothly.   Employment now exceeds pre-crisis levels in several countries, including France, and net job creation is increasing strongly. This is in sharp contrast to the situation after the global financial crisis hit in 2008. The unemployment rate in the euro area was 7.2% in November 2021, compared with about 11.5% in November 2014.

Governments are committed to unwinding their large fiscal imbalances from 2022.   Cutting the pandemic-related budgetary measures expenditure will be key to this--last year, general government spending was close to 7 percentage points of GDP above pre-pandemic levels in the euro area's six largest economies. We expect fiscal deficits to decline significantly this year across the developed European rated universe, as governments phase out the one-off COVID-19 measures and their finances benefit from favorable cyclical developments. That said, fiscal deficits in Italy, Slovenia, Spain, and the U.K. are still forecast to exceed 5% of GDP. The fiscal position in Liechtenstein, Andorra, and Luxembourg will be in surplus, or close to balance. Faster-than-expected fiscal consolidation and a reduction in government debt would boost sovereign ratings.

Given the economic recovery and rising inflation, the ECB is likely to tighten its stance this year, which will have economic and budgetary implications for the euro area.   The relatively low unemployment rate opens the door to sustained, higher medium-term inflation. That said, we don't expect wage growth to outpace productivity in the monetary union in 2022; therefore, it will not exert significant inflationary pressure (see "Where Is The Wage Inflation? Not In Europe," published on Dec. 16, 2021). Overall, we expect inflation in the eurozone to gradually decelerate, and we do not expect the ECB to hike rates before 2024. Nevertheless, the ECB has been reducing its net purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase program and will halt them altogether in March 2022. We think it is unlikely to try and taper its asset purchase program before end-2023.

In contrast, the Bank of England raised interest rates in December 2021, for the first time since the onset of the pandemic.   We expect that the Bank of England will raise the policy rate again in 2022, to keep inflation expectations well anchored (see "Latest European Economic Snapshots Show A Robust Expansion Ahead," published on Dec. 6, 2021). Inflationary pressures will persist for the next few months and be significantly exacerbated by the increase in regulatory caps on household energy bills in April; they should start fading later this year. Although inflation is set to run extraordinarily high initially and remain well above the 2% target for the rest of the year, it will only dampen, not derail the recovery momentum, which is supported by the gradual realization of pent-up demand, strong labor market, and a large buffer of extra household savings. We forecast the U.K. economic recovery will continue at a high, but decelerating pace, with GDP expanding by 4.6% in 2022, after a 6.9% rise last year.

A Strong Reform Momentum Is What Matters Now

Beyond the strong medium-term growth outlook, structural challenges, such as the aging population, pose significant downside risks to Europe's growth performance and long-term public finances.   For example, Lithuania has a shrinking working-age population. This adverse demographic trend has contributed to the mismatch between wage growth and average productivity gains in recent years. In Spain, we estimate that the recurrent pension deficits explain about half of the country's structural budgetary deficit. In Italy, the population has declined by 0.4% per year on average since 2015.

The more highly indebted sovereigns are likely to depend on the EU's large funding facilities when addressing their financial challenges.   The NGEU program is worth up to €750 billion (about 5.5% of EU GDP) for spending at the national level. The EU aims to disburse €672.5 billion--with grants making up almost half--under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). It has disbursed €46.4 billion in grants and €19.9 billion in loans so far. The RRF emphasizes productive investment into areas such as digitization and the green transition to tackle the challenges of climate change. It also aims to directly address potential divergence in future economic performance between member states. Fiscal spending in these areas is more likely to boost competitiveness, productivity, and therefore potential growth, especially given the investment gaps that have opened up in recent years compared with other major world economies. As a condition of receiving these funds, the EU governments have committed to structural reform implementation.

Strong opposition to reform proposals in many European countries could derail reform agendas, however.   For example, some European economies faced labor or pension reform strikes in response to proposals. In our view, the risk of political fragmentation or policy complacency is not negligible, especially ahead of the elections in Europe this year in countries such as Italy, Portugal, France, Slovenia, Austria, and Latvia.

Table 1

EMEA Developed Markets Sovereign Rating Score Snapshot
Issuer	Sovereign foreign currency ratings	Institutional assessment	Economic assessment	External assessment	Fiscal assessment, budget performance	Fiscal assessment, debt	Monetary assessment
Andorra	BBB/Positive/A-2	3	2	5	1	3	5
Austria	AA+/Stable/A-1+	2	1	2	3	3§	2
Belgium	AA/Stable/A-1+	3	1	2	3	5	2
Cyprus	BBB-/Positive/A-3	3	3	5	1	5§	4
Czech Republic	AA-/Stable/A-1+	2	3	1	4*	2	2
Denmark	AAA/Stable/A-1+	1	1	3	2	1	3
Estonia	AA-/Positive/A-1+	2	3	2	2	1	3
Finland	AA+/Stable/A-1+	2	1	4	2	2	2
France	AA/Stable/A-1+	2	1	4	3	5	2
Germany	AAA/Stable/A-1+	2	1	1	1	2	2
Greece	BB/Positive/B	4	3	5	3	6	3
Guernsey	AA-/Negative/A-1+	2	2	4	1	2	5
Iceland	A/Stable/A-1	2	2	3	4	4	4
Ireland	AA-/Stable/A-1+	2	1	4	2	4	2
Italy	BBB/Positive/A-2	3	3	3	4	6	2
Jersey	AA-/Stable/A-1+	2	2	4	1	2	5
Latvia	A+/Stable/A-1	3	3	2	2	2	3
Liechtenstein	AAA/Stable/A-1+	1	1	3	1	2	3
Lithuania	A+/Stable/A-1	3	3	1	2	2	3
Luxembourg	AAA/Stable/A-1+	2	1	3	1	2	2
Malta	A-/Stable/A-2	3	3	3	2	2	3
Netherlands	AAA/Stable/A-1+	2	1	3	2	2	2
Norway	AAA/Stable/A-1+	1	1	1	1	1	1
Portugal	BBB/Stable/A-2	3	3	5	2	6	2
Slovakia	A+/Stable/A-1	3	3	2	3	2	2
Slovenia	AA-/Stable/A-1+	3	3	1	3	3	2
Spain	A/Negative/A-1	3	2	4	4	5	2
Sweden	AAA/Stable/A-1+	1	1	2	1	1	1
Switzerland	AAA/Stable/A-1+	1	1	1	1	1	2
United Kingdom	AA/Stable/A-1+	2	1	2§	4	5§	1
1 (%)		16.7	46.7	20.0	33.3	16.7	10.0
2 (%)		43.3	16.7	23.3	30.0	40.0	50.0
3 (%)		36.7	36.7	23.3	20.0	10.0	23.3
4 (%)		3.3	0.0	20.0	16.7	6.7	6.7
5 (%)		0.0	0.0	13.3	0.0	16.7	10.0
6 (%)		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.0	0.0
Median		2.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
Mean		2.3	1.9	2.8	2.2	3.0	2.6
Standard Deviation		0.8	0.9	1.3	1.1	1.7	1.1
*Deterioration since June 2021. §Improvement since June 2021.

Table 2

EMEA Developed Markets Economic Outlook
	Real GDP growth (%)		GG balance / GDP (%)		Net GG debt / GDP (%)		Current account balance / GDP (%)		Narrow net ext. debt / CAR (%)
	2021	2022	2021	2022	2021	2022	2021	2022	2021	2022
Andorra	5.2	4.5	(1.5)	0.8	(12.2)	(11.6)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Austria	3.7	4.2	(6.2)	(3.7)	77.6	76.6	1.5	1.6	125.2	124.1
Belgium	6.1	3.3	(6.5)	(4.0)	103.8	103.4	0.6	0.4	184.8	180.4
Cyprus	5.0	3.7	(4.0)	(0.8)	92.1	87.9	(4.8)	(3.4)	152.3	143.1
Czech Republic	2.8	4.3	(7.4)	(5.0)	30.9	33.6	1.2	1.0	(20.3)	(19.8)
Denmark	3.6	3.2	(1.0)	(0.2)	14.6	14.6	7.9	8.3	45.5	46.7
Estonia	8.1	4.8	(3.1)	(2.3)	6.3	8.1	(3.2)	(1.5)	13.3	13.4
Finland	3.3	3.0	(3.7)	(2.5)	28.6	30.3	(0.2)	(0.5)	209.6	201.3
France	6.7	3.8	(8.0)	(4.4)	101.2	100.3	(1.5)	(1.2)	320.7	308.9
Germany	2.7	4.3	(4.2)	(1.3)	62.1	59.7	6.0	5.6	76.2	74.2
Greece	7.2	5.0	(9.1)	(3.1)	178.7	171.3	(4.0)	(3.0)	420.3	381.3
Guernsey	2.4	1.3	(2.8)	(3.2)	(89.8)	(89.7)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Iceland	4.1	4.3	(6.9)	(4.7)	43.3	45.0	0.5	2.0	55.9	49.9
Ireland	5.0	5.0	(3.3)	(2.0)	49.7	48.5	1.6	1.9	205.4	203.4
Italy	6.4	4.7	(8.8)	(5.8)	144.2	141.8	3.3	3.0	257.9	248.0
Jersey (States of)	2.3	2.8	(5.2)	(6.0)	(127.3)	(119.9)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Latvia	4.8	4.9	(6.1)	(2.8)	38.4	38.2	(0.5)	0.7	37.2	36.4
Liechtenstein	3.2	1.5	0.6	1.2	(116.5)	(118.4)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Lithuania	4.8	4.0	(5.0)	(3.0)	40.1	40.7	5.0	2.7	9.5	4.2
Luxembourg	5.5	3.7	(0.7)	0.0	(10.6)	(10.0)	5.0	5.4	199.5	190.0
Malta	4.5	5.3	(8.5)	(4.4)	49.3	50.6	(1.0)	1.2	48.9	48.3
Netherlands	4.6	3.9	(3.6)	(2.0)	48.8	48.1	7.4	7.8	193.9	192.3
Norway	3.5	3.6	(0.7)	2.2	(275.5)	(263.1)	5.8	6.2	(444.4)	(447.0)
Portugal	4.7	5.7	(4.4)	(3.2)	119.8	115.1	(0.9)	(0.8)	242.0	217.5
Slovakia	3.5	4.7	(6.8)	(4.5)	53.7	53.9	(1.1)	(0.7)	49.1	45.0
Slovenia	6.1	4.7	(7.2)	(5.2)	58.3	59.6	5.4	5.0	50.1	46.9
Spain	4.5	7.0	(8.1)	(5.0)	114.8	108.1	0.5	1.3	261.8	243.9
Sweden	4.2	3.3	(1.2)	(0.9)	26.8	26.3	5.2	4.9	120.1	114.6
Switzerland	3.3	3.3	(2.3)	(0.1)	20.8	20.0	7.6	6.9	5.6	3.2
United Kingdom	6.9	4.6	(9.0)	(5.5)	98.5	97.8	(3.0)	(3.2)	355.5	334.0
Note: All data sourced from the latest Research Update, Full Analysis or Sovereign Risk Indicator publication. GDP and CPI inflation data is taken from the latest Economic Outlook for applicable sovereigns. CAR--Current account receipts. GG--General government. N/A--Not applicable.

Sovereign Summaries

Andorra (BBB/Stable/A-2)

• Analyst: adrienne.benassy@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Andorra Outlook To Positive From Stable On Expected Recovery And Budgetary Consolidation; 'BBB/A-2' Ratings Affirmed, Jan. 14, 2022

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 2
• External assessment: 5
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 3
• Monetary assessment: 5

Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook indicates that we expect Andorra's accelerating economic recovery and steady fiscal consolidation to put government debt-to-GDP on a downward trajectory from 2022 onward. This will restore a degree of fiscal flexibility. Contrary to our original expectation, the Andorran regulator's intervention in the case of Banca Privada d'Andorra in 2015 has had no direct impact on the country's public finances.

We could revise the outlook to stable if the economic impact of COVID-19 is more severe or prolonged than we anticipate, or if Andorra's budgetary position comes under pressure. Heightened financial sector risks, or a reversal of authorities' ongoing alignment toward international financial standards could also trigger an outlook revision to stable.

We could raise the ratings within 12-24 months if Andorra's fiscal and economic performance surpasses our projections.

Table 3

Andorra
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022e	2023f	2024f	2025f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	39.6	40.1	42.3	40.7	37.1	40.6	41.5	43.3	44.5	45.1
GDP growth	3.7	0.3	1.6	2.0	(11.2)	5.2	4.5	3.0	2.1	1.5
GDP per capita growth	1.8	(1.9)	(0.3)	0.2	(11.7)	3.6	3.0	1.5	0.6	0.0
Current account balance/GDP	N/A	N/A	N/A	18.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Narrow net external debt/CAR	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
GG balance/GDP	4.4	3.3	2.8	2.3	(1.1)	(1.5)	0.8	1.0	1.2	2.0
GG net debt/GDP	(8.8)	(14.4)	(14.3)	(18.5)	(16.9)	(12.2)	(11.6)	(11.5)	(11.9)	(12.0)
CPI inflation	(0.4)	2.6	1.3	0.8	0.3	1.8	1.6	1.2	1.1	1.1
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	166.5	150.1	145.8	141.0	157.0	146.2	137.3	131.2	126.8	123.4
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Austria (AA+/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: michelle.keferstein@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Austria 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable, Sept. 10, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 3
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances our expectation that Austria's macroeconomic conditions will enable the government to substantially reduce currently sizable fiscal deficits against risks that fiscal support will be maintained in light of prolonged effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We could raise our ratings on Austria if fiscal results outperform our current expectations, putting the government debt burden on a firm downward path, supported by continued political stability and accelerated fiscal reforms.

We could lower the ratings if the government's net debt to GDP increases significantly above our projections. This could occur, for example, if the economic recovery is much weaker than expected, requiring sustained fiscal support.

Table 4

Austria
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	44.5	45.5	47.6	51.6	50.2	48.7	53.1	54.5	56.8	59.0
GDP growth	1.0	2.0	2.3	2.5	1.5	(6.7)	3.7	4.2	2.0	1.4
GDP per capita growth	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.9	1.1	(7.2)	3.3	3.8	1.5	1.0
Current account balance/GDP	1.7	2.7	1.4	0.9	2.1	1.9	1.5	1.6	1.8	1.8
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	195.2	185.1	175.3	180.8	178.3	191.0	188.3	185.6	182.9	180.1
Narrow net external debt/CAR	119.3	109.9	121.9	102.9	104.0	137.2	125.2	124.1	119.6	115.8
GG balance/GDP	(1.0)	(1.5)	(0.8)	0.2	0.6	(8.3)	(6.2)	(3.7)	(3.3)	(2.4)
GG net debt/GDP	78.8	75.4	72.1	69.0	65.7	75.7	77.6	76.6	76.9	76.8
CPI inflation	0.8	1.0	2.2	2.1	1.5	1.4	2.6	2.2	1.8	1.7
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	113.0	115.3	108.3	106.3	108.2	117.4	115.9	115.9	115.9	115.9
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Belgium (AA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: sebastien.boreux@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Belgium, Sept. 20, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view that, over the next 12-24 months, the fiscal and monetary measures taken at the national and EU level will support Belgium's wealthy and productive economy. We expect these measures will help prevent lasting damages from a very severe--albeit temporary--shock to the country's economy, public finances, and already highly leveraged government balance sheet.

We also factor in our assumption that Belgium's federal structure will retain its current form, and that the federal government's powers will continue to include managing public finances. We also assume that the government's economic and fiscal policy strategy will support Belgium's creditworthiness, particularly with respect to the country's structurally challenged budgetary position.

We could lower the ratings if Belgium's budget deviates significantly from our current expectations. This could occur, for example, if the damage caused by the pandemic to the country's economy and public finances is more protracted than we currently anticipate, notably stemming from new variants of the virus. After the crisis, further deterioration in budgetary outcomes could result if the government's fiscal policy response does not address the underlying factors of the budget gap and the consequences of the pandemic on public finances. An increase in external pressures beyond our forecasts could also weigh on the ratings.

We could raise the ratings if Belgium's budget deficit and government debt steadily declined faster than we currently expect. Rating upside could build if Belgium started posting consistent current account surpluses, or the economy's external short-term debt fell further (for the latest research update, published on Sept. 18, 2020, click here).

Table 5

Belgium
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	41.3	42.3	44.4	47.8	46.8	45.4	50.7	51.4	53.3	55.1
GDP growth	2.0	1.3	1.6	1.8	2.2	(5.7)	6.1	3.3	1.5	1.4
GDP per capita growth	1.5	0.7	1.1	1.3	1.7	(6.2)	5.8	2.8	1.0	0.9
Current account balance/GDP	1.4	0.6	0.7	(0.8)	0.2	0.8	0.6	0.4	(0.1)	(0.6)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	211.5	201.5	199.4	204.1	195.1	203.2	196.4	195.3	193.2	191.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR	76.0	84.1	85.7	75.2	85.3	102.7	184.8	180.4	174.9	171.2
GG balance/GDP	(2.4)	(2.4)	(0.7)	(0.8)	(1.9)	(9.1)	(6.5)	(4.0)	(3.5)	(3.1)
GG net debt/GDP	97.7	97.3	94.1	92.9	91.5	105.2	103.8	103.4	104.3	104.5
CPI inflation	0.6	1.8	2.2	2.3	1.3	0.4	2.5	2.0	1.6	1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	87.8	90.0	90.9	93.0	93.7	98.2	94.7	93.9	94.9	95.8
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Cyprus (BBB-/Positive/A-3)

• Analyst: sebastien.boreux@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Cyprus Outlook Revised To Positive On Solid Economic Prospects; 'BBB-/A-3' Ratings Affirmed, Sept. 3, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 5
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
• Monetary assessment: 4

Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook reflects our view that, following the severe shock caused by the pandemic in 2020 and beyond the related near-term uncertainty in 2021, we could upgrade Cyprus within the next 24 months if the country's economic and budgetary performance continue to strengthen, supported by the government's implementation of structural reforms.

As the pandemic's fallout wanes, we could upgrade Cyprus if dynamic growth materializes, notably thanks to the strong implementation of the authorities' recovery plan and the absorption of an estimated 5.6% of GDP in EU funds.

An upgrade over the next 24 months could also come on the back of improved budgetary performance underpinning a material decline in one of the highest stocks of government debt in the region, or in the case of a sustained decline in nonperforming exposures (NPEs) on the banking sector's balance sheet.

We could revise the outlook to stable if budgetary performance is markedly below our expectations, threatening the pace of government debt reduction in GDP terms, or if economic growth prospects unexpectedly deteriorate.

Table 6

Cyprus
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	23.4	24.7	26.8	29.5	29.4	27.7	30.4	31.1	33.0	34.9
GDP growth	3.2	6.5	5.9	5.7	5.3	(5.2)	5.0	3.7	3.2	2.8
GDP per capita growth	4.6	6.3	5.1	4.5	3.9	(6.5)	4.1	3.2	2.7	2.3
Current account balance/GDP	(1.0)	(0.6)	(1.4)	(3.1)	(6.1)	(9.7)	(4.8)	(3.4)	(1.8)	(0.1)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	511.7	418.8	310.7	317.6	247.9	269.7	245.0	239.2	226.4	211.8
Narrow net external debt/CAR	296.5	211.2	204.5	151.4	131.1	174.7	152.3	143.1	128.8	113.0
GG balance/GDP	(0.9)	0.3	1.9	(3.5)	1.3	(5.7)	(4.0)	(0.8)	0.1	1.4
GG net debt/GDP	99.1	92.0	86.2	91.8	82.2	93.9	92.1	87.9	83.2	77.5
CPI inflation	(2.1)	(1.4)	0.5	1.4	0.3	(0.6)	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	243.7	216.8	191.6	136.1	108.2	110.3	100.4	92.1	88.1	84.5
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Czech Republic (AA-/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: niklas.steinert@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Czech Republic 'AA-/A-1+' Foreign Currency And 'AA/A-1+' Local Currency Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable, Oct. 29, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectations that the setback in the Czech Republic's economic recovery due to supply-side disruptions in the automotive sector will be temporary, followed by strong GDP growth in 2022. The outlook also factors in our expectation of an orderly withdrawal of the pandemic-related monetary and fiscal policy stimulus.

We could lower the ratings over the next two years if the economic recovery proves significantly more protracted than we currently expect, for example, if current supply-side constraints became more permanent. External and fiscal pressures would rise in such a scenario, raising public debt substantially beyond our current expectations. We could also lower the rating if we observed erosion of policy effectiveness and predictability.

We could consider a positive rating action if the economic recovery proved significantly quicker and stronger than we anticipate, and if the country's income levels, as measured by per capita GDP, increased compared with similar rated sovereigns globally.

Table 7

Czech Republic
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	17.8	18.6	20.7	23.5	23.7	22.9	26.8	29.6	31.9	33.6
GDP growth	5.4	2.5	5.2	3.2	3.0	(5.8)	2.8	4.3	2.9	2.3
GDP per capita growth	5.1	2.4	4.9	2.9	2.6	(6.2)	2.7	4.0	2.6	2.0
Current account balance/GDP	0.5	1.8	1.4	0.5	0.4	3.6	1.2	1.0	0.9	0.7
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	98.3	94.3	90.7	89.9	91.3	85.1	84.9	84.9	84.9	84.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR	0.8	(6.1)	(8.7)	(7.4)	(13.2)	(21.6)	(20.3)	(19.8)	(20.2)	(20.9)
GG balance/GDP	(0.6)	0.7	1.5	0.9	0.3	(5.6)	(7.4)	(5.0)	(3.6)	(2.8)
GG net debt/GDP	32.6	27.9	23.7	21.7	19.8	25.0	30.9	33.6	35.6	36.9
CPI inflation	0.2	0.7	2.4	1.9	2.6	3.3	4.4	4.0	2.2	2.1
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	52.9	55.0	54.7	55.2	54.2	57.1	56.2	54.7	54.7	55.0
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Denmark (AAA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: johanna.melinder@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Denmark, Aug. 30, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 1
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
• Monetary assessment: 3

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' expectation that Denmark can withstand a temporary economic shock without lasting and structural damage to its credit metrics.

We could lower the rating if Denmark's budgetary position weakened structurally and significantly, for example if the pandemic lasts longer and materially hits economic activity without offsetting budgetary consolidation measures (for the latest research update, published on Aug. 28, 2020, click here).

Table 8

Denmark
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	53.5	54.9	57.8	61.7	59.9	61.2	67.0	68.4	71.4	74.5
GDP growth	2.3	3.3	2.8	2.0	2.1	(2.1)	3.6	3.2	2.1	2.0
GDP per capita growth	1.8	2.4	2.1	1.4	1.7	(2.3)	3.3	2.9	1.8	1.7
Current account balance/GDP	8.2	7.8	8.1	7.2	8.8	8.1	7.9	8.3	8.1	8.0
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	190.3	182.5	176.5	181.3	168.7	171.4	185.6	178.3	174.2	172.6
Narrow net external debt/CAR	54.6	51.8	48.3	45.7	38.6	49.3	45.5	46.7	49.2	48.7
GG balance/GDP	(1.3)	(0.1)	1.8	0.8	4.1	(0.2)	(1.0)	(0.2)	(0.1)	0.0
GG net debt/GDP	23.4	21.4	18.8	15.9	12.8	12.4	14.6	14.6	14.4	14.1
CPI inflation	0.2	0.0	1.1	0.7	0.7	0.4	2.3	2.0	1.5	1.7
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	183.3	179.9	175.5	176.8	179.2	180.6	174.2	168.6	166.0	163.4
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Estonia (AA-/Positive/A-1+)

• Analyst: niklas.steinert@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Estonia Outlook Revised To Positive From Stable On Strong Recovery; 'AA-/A-1+' Ratings, Aug. 20, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
• Monetary assessment: 3

Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook reflects our view that Estonia's economy will recover strongly this year and next, following a relatively shallow contraction in 2020. Fiscal support will continue to aid the economic recovery in the near term, and the strong rebound will enable swift consolidation from 2022. This will mean that government debt, net of liquid assets, will rise to only 10% of GDP over the next few years. The European Central Bank's (ECB's) accommodative monetary policy supports the government's fiscal efforts. At the same time, we expect no external pressures for Estonia, given its euro area membership, balanced current account, and low levels of net external leverage.

We could raise the ratings if Estonia's economy strengthened beyond our current expectations and further boosted the country's income levels. We believe such a scenario would most likely reflect productivity gains in high-value-added services sectors over the next few years. A healthy economic recovery could also result in stronger fiscal balances and reduce general government debt.

We could also raise the ratings if external metrics exceeded our expectations, for example through continuous and strong current account surpluses. Furthermore, we could raise our ratings if Estonia's economy became more synchronized with that of the eurozone, for example through converging inflation trends.

We could lower the ratings or revise the outlook to stable if Estonia's economy underperformed our expectations by significant margins. Under a scenario of much weaker growth, the economy might require larger and ongoing fiscal support measures that would weaken public finances beyond our current assumptions.

Table 9

Estonia
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	17.4	18.3	20.4	23.0	23.4	23.0	26.5	27.7	29.3	30.8
GDP growth	1.9	3.2	5.8	4.1	4.1	(3.0)	8.1	4.8	2.9	2.3
GDP per capita growth	1.7	3.2	5.5	3.7	3.8	(3.0)	8.0	4.7	2.8	2.2
Current account balance/GDP	1.8	1.2	2.3	0.8	2.5	(0.3)	(3.2)	(1.5)	(1.0)	(1.0)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	164.1	157.6	149.1	149.7	139.8	142.3	144.3	140.8	137.5	136.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR	29.5	27.2	26.8	19.9	17.5	14.8	13.3	13.4	13.4	13.6
GG balance/GDP	0.1	(0.4)	(0.5)	(0.6)	0.1	(5.6)	(3.1)	(2.3)	(1.5)	(1.3)
GG net debt/GDP	(3.3)	(3.3)	(3.1)	(3.3)	(3.5)	3.2	6.3	8.1	9.2	10.1
CPI inflation	0.1	0.8	3.7	3.4	2.3	(0.6)	3.1	3.5	1.9	1.9
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	69.5	70.3	64.6	62.7	60.9	65.5	61.5	59.6	59.5	59.7
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Finland (AA+/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: gabriel.forss@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Finland, Sept. 6, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' expectation that the deterioration of Finland's public finances will moderate through 2023 as COVID-19 fiscal stimulus measures are withdrawn, the economy rebounds, and the government embarks on a program of fiscal consolidation alongside the recovering economy.

We could consider a negative rating action in the next two years if Finland's economic recovery is much weaker than expected, leading to a pronounced deterioration in the country's fiscal position.

We could raise the long-term ratings if Finland's external performance structurally improves, combined with reform that significantly strengthens economic growth potential and secures stronger public finances (for the latest research update, published on Sept. 4, 2020, click here).

Table 10

Finland
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	42.9	43.9	46.5	50.0	48.7	48.8	53.4	54.4	56.9	59.4
GDP growth	0.5	2.8	3.2	1.1	1.3	(2.9)	3.3	3.0	1.8	1.4
GDP per capita growth	0.2	2.5	2.9	1.0	1.3	(3.0)	3.1	2.8	1.6	1.2
Current account balance/GDP	(0.9)	(2.0)	(0.8)	(1.9)	(0.3)	0.8	(0.2)	(0.5)	(0.6)	(0.6)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	478.3	393.4	339.4	288.9	349.5	366.7	349.0	343.9	332.7	322.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR	210.6	224.1	248.8	220.0	205.4	226.9	209.6	201.3	190.1	180.8
GG balance/GDP	(2.4)	(1.7)	(0.7)	(0.9)	(0.9)	(5.5)	(3.7)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.0)
GG net debt/GDP	24.1	24.7	21.9	20.9	19.3	25.2	28.6	30.3	31.6	32.6
CPI inflation	(0.2)	0.4	0.8	1.2	1.1	0.4	2.3	2.4	1.7	1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	96.4	94.9	93.7	95.0	96.6	102.3	100.8	100.5	101.1	102.2
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

France (AA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: remy.carasse@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: France 'AA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable, Oct. 1, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view that the economic rebound will enable France to bring down currently substantial budget deficits.

The ratings could come under pressure if budget deficits do not recede as we anticipate, for example because of:

• A lack of budgetary consolidation once the impact of the pandemic subsides; or
• A protracted slowdown in the economic recovery, which could damage long-term productive capacity.

Ratings upside could arise if:

• Economic growth strengthens materially, leading to narrower fiscal deficits and a sustained reduction in government debt to GDP that outperform our projections; and
• Contrary to our expectations, France's current account balance shifts into sustained surpluses.

Table 11

France
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	36.6	37.0	38.8	41.6	40.6	39.0	43.9	45.0	47.1	49.0
GDP growth	1.0	1.0	2.4	1.8	1.8	(8.0)	6.7	3.8	2.2	1.6
GDP per capita growth	0.8	0.8	2.1	1.6	1.6	(8.2)	6.5	3.6	1.9	1.4
Current account balance/GDP	(0.4)	(0.5)	(0.8)	(0.8)	(0.3)	(1.9)	(1.5)	(1.2)	(0.9)	(0.6)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	342.0	314.8	305.8	316.2	335.0	390.7	400.8	388.9	374.8	364.9
Narrow net external debt/CAR	261.5	263.7	293.3	235.4	254.4	352.8	320.7	308.9	295.9	285.8
GG balance/GDP	(3.6)	(3.6)	(3.0)	(2.3)	(3.1)	(9.1)	(8.0)	(4.4)	(3.6)	(3.3)
GG net debt/GDP	87.3	89.9	89.5	89.6	89.3	101.4	101.2	100.3	100.2	100.3
CPI inflation	0.1	0.3	1.2	2.1	1.3	0.5	2.1	2.0	1.6	1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	95.2	97.2	99.7	102.3	104.4	119.6	114.4	112.1	111.8	112.0
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Germany (AAA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: ludwig.heinz@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Germany 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable, March 26, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects Germany's formidable external and fiscal buffers and its institutional effectiveness, which help mitigate the pandemic's impact and enable the government's policy response. This should help prevent deeper economic scarring and deteriorating sovereign creditworthiness over the next two-to-three years.

We could lower our ratings on Germany if the country's fiscal position worsened materially and persistently beyond our projections, coupled with a significant increase of contingent liabilities. A scenario under which Germany's fiscal position permanently weakens would almost certainly imply a far weaker economic recovery than we forecast. In a downside scenario, this would be coupled with other adverse developments such as the deterioration of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) monetary flexibility, or knock-on effects from a prolonged recession in the rest of the eurozone.

Table 12

Germany
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	41.4	42.2	44.7	48.0	46.8	46.3	50.3	51.9	54.5	56.7
GDP growth	1.5	2.2	2.7	1.1	1.1	(4.6)	2.7	4.3	2.5	1.5
GDP per capita growth	1.0	1.0	2.3	0.8	0.8	(4.7)	2.7	4.1	2.3	1.3
Current account balance/GDP	8.6	8.5	7.8	7.8	7.5	7.0	6.0	5.6	5.6	5.1
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	212.2	199.9	197.7	201.8	203.6	212.0	225.2	223.5	215.8	212.2
Narrow net external debt/CAR	74.9	69.5	67.8	52.9	57.6	84.3	76.2	74.2	70.9	69.1
GG balance/GDP	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.9	1.5	(4.3)	(4.2)	(1.3)	(0.4)	(0.1)
GG net debt/GDP	67.2	63.9	58.8	55.8	54.1	60.9	62.1	59.7	57.7	56.0
CPI inflation	0.7	0.4	1.7	1.9	1.4	0.3	2.9	2.2	1.8	1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	87.9	87.3	87.3	87.9	89.4	96.1	96.1	96.1	96.1	96.1
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Greece (BB/Positive/B)

• Analyst: marko.mrsnik@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Greece Upgraded To 'BB' On Improved Governance Effectiveness; Outlook Positive, April 23, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 4
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 5
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
• Monetary assessment: 3

Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook signifies that we could raise our ratings on Greece within the next 6-12 months if its economic recovery is faster than we currently project and stronger than that of peers. Ratings upside could also hinge on a material improvement in budgetary performance, coupled with a marked reduction of NPEs in Greece's banking system.

We could revise the outlook to stable if the economy weakens more than we expect, or due to large and negative deviations from our current budgetary projections.

We could raise our ratings on Greece if the structural reforms continue alongside a strong economic rebound and improved budgetary performance. In this scenario, NPEs in Greece's impaired banking system would also shrink significantly, which would benefit monetary transmission, in our view.

Table 13

Greece
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	18.1	17.9	18.6	19.8	19.2	17.7	20.0	20.6	22.1	23.5
GDP growth	(0.4)	(0.5)	1.3	1.6	1.9	(8.3)	7.2	5.0	4.4	4.1
GDP per capita growth	0.3	(0.4)	1.5	1.7	1.9	(7.9)	7.2	5.0	4.4	4.1
Current account balance/GDP	(0.8)	(1.8)	(1.9)	(2.9)	(1.5)	(6.6)	(4.0)	(3.0)	(1.9)	(1.3)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	356.1	367.8	307.5	266.0	245.6	339.9	378.9	335.6	298.8	284.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR	461.3	452.0	441.5	370.5	359.7	533.4	420.3	381.3	347.7	325.2
GG balance/GDP	(5.9)	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.1	(10.1)	(9.1)	(3.1)	(1.0)	0.0
GG net debt/GDP	171.7	172.4	171.0	165.7	160.9	187.9	178.7	171.3	161.8	152.1
CPI inflation	(1.1)	0.0	1.1	0.8	0.5	(1.3)	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.6
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	115.8	111.7	103.6	94.5	83.8	85.1	73.0	65.3	58.6	52.7
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Guernsey (AA-/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: samuel.tilleray@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: States of Guernsey Outlook Revised To Negative On Risk Of Eroding Liquid Asset Buffer; 'AA-/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed, Jan. 14, 2022

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 2
• External assessment: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 5

Outlook: Negative

The negative outlook primarily reflects risks to Guernsey's large liquid asset position in the face of rising expenditure plans. The outlook revision also reflects uncertainties related to any offsetting new revenue raising measures, such as the introduction of a GST.

We could lower the ratings within the next 24 months if we forecast government fiscal deficits to remain elevated, such that liquid assets fell consistently well below 100% of GDP. This could happen, for instance, if Guernsey's capital expenditure (capex) program were implemented more aggressively than we currently assume, or if losses at key state-owned enterprises were to widen further. A similar action could also occur as a result of a significant shift in the global regulatory, tax, and competitive environment that undermined Guernsey's important financial services sector.

We could revise the outlook to stable within the next 24 months if we saw reduced fiscal pressure on government assets. This could occur as a result of a meaningful cut to current spending, or through the implementation of tax-base-widening measures such as a GST. A significant improvement in economic activities could also help narrow the fiscal gap.

Table 14

Guernsey
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022e	2023f	2024f	2025f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	63.8	64.1	67.4	65.6	64.1	71.7	72.2	75.2	78.0	79.9
GDP growth	3.0	3.2	(0.2)	0.1	(3.1)	2.4	1.3	2.3	1.9	1.0
GDP per capita growth	3.2	2.9	(0.8)	(0.7)	(3.6)	1.9	0.9	2.0	1.6	0.7
Current account balance/GDP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Narrow net external debt/CAR	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
GG balance/GDP	1.6	1.1	(0.5)	(0.4)	(5.4)	(2.8)	(3.2)	(3.9)	(3.7)	(2.2)
GG net debt/GDP	(82.8)	(88.2)	(81.6)	(88.2)	(90.9)	(89.8)	(89.7)	(88.1)	(86.7)	(87.5)
CPI inflation	0.8	2.3	2.5	2.1	1.6	2.8	3.5	1.7	2.1	2.1
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Iceland (A/Stable/A-1)

• Analyst: niklas.steinert@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Iceland, Nov. 16, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 2
• External assessment: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
• Monetary assessment: 4

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that Iceland's economic recovery is well on track and will continue over the next 12-18 months. Authorities are gradually rolling back much of the fiscal and monetary policy support that limited the economic contraction and exchange rate volatility during the pandemic. This will limit the increase in public debt over the next few years.

We could lower the ratings on Iceland if the economic recovery proves shallower or takes longer than we expect, for example, if the tourism sector remains more permanently depressed compared to pre-pandemic levels. This could occur if the pandemic resurges or there is a prolonged shift in travel patterns. In such a scenario, we consider that monetary and fiscal support could become a more permanent feature of Iceland's policy mix and erode policy space, and net general government debt levels would rise materially beyond our expectations.

We could raise the ratings if the recovery from the pandemic exceeds our expectations and the Icelandic economy and export categories become more diverse, reducing the volatility in Iceland's terms of trade. This scenario could enable even quicker fiscal consolidation than we expect, putting the government's debt burden on a firm downward trend to close to pre-pandemic levels, as a share of GDP (for the latest research update, published on May 14, 2021, click here).

Table 15

Iceland
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	53.2	62.5	73.1	75.4	69.6	59.6	67.6	72.3	76.8	80.4
GDP growth	4.4	6.3	4.2	4.9	2.4	(6.5)	4.1	4.3	2.5	2.3
GDP per capita growth	3.4	5.2	2.4	1.9	(0.0)	(8.3)	2.1	2.8	1.0	0.7
Current account balance/GDP	6.5	8.1	4.2	3.5	5.8	0.9	0.5	2.0	1.3	1.4
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	92.7	89.7	79.9	84.7	81.4	80.5	86.3	84.8	87.1	87.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR	142.2	56.2	52.6	42.7	39.8	67.1	55.9	49.9	47.4	46.0
GG balance/GDP	(1.0)	(3.3)	0.6	0.8	(1.5)	(7.1)	(6.9)	(4.7)	(3.4)	(2.7)
GG net debt/GDP	46.4	39.2	35.4	28.6	34.9	41.7	43.3	45.0	46.0	46.7
CPI inflation	1.6	1.7	1.8	2.7	3.0	2.8	4.3	2.8	2.4	2.3
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	136.6	127.7	129.6	131.3	127.6	138.5	137.0	134.2	132.9	132.2
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Ireland (AA-/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: remy.carasse@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Ireland, Nov. 29, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view that Ireland is likely to contain the pandemic's adverse effect on the country's economy and budgetary position and that there will be no lasting structural damage to its credit metrics.

The ratings could come under pressure if the domestic economy doesn't recover as we anticipate, or if the fiscal consolidation starting this year proves to be significantly slower than we project.

Ratings upside could arise if Ireland's fiscal performance and external position strengthened significantly beyond our current expectations (for the latest research update, published on Nov. 27, 2020, click here).

Table 16

Ireland
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	62.3	63.3	70.1	79.7	81.4	85.8	94.6	96.8	101.7	106.9
GDP growth	25.2	2.0	8.9	9.0	4.9	5.9	5.0	5.0	4.0	4.0
GDP per capita growth	24.1	1.0	7.6	8.0	3.3	4.6	4.1	3.8	2.8	2.8
Current account balance/GDP	4.4	(4.2)	0.5	4.9	(19.9)	(2.7)	1.6	1.9	2.0	2.2
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	412.3	374.0	332.2	319.5	328.1	327.3	332.0	344.6	341.9	333.9
Narrow net external debt/CAR	258.5	227.9	214.8	195.8	191.2	199.9	205.4	203.4	199.1	185.7
GG balance/GDP	(2.1)	(0.8)	(0.3)	0.2	0.5	(4.9)	(3.3)	(2.0)	(1.5)	(1.0)
GG net debt/GDP	68.9	66.1	58.7	52.4	46.9	49.9	49.7	48.5	47.5	46.1
CPI inflation	0.0	(0.2)	0.3	0.7	0.9	(0.5)	2.4	1.6	1.2	1.2
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	74.8	69.0	61.2	55.0	48.8	44.5	41.3	39.2	37.7	36.2
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Italy (BBB/Positive/A-2)

• Analyst: frank.gill@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Italy Outlook Revised To Positive From Stable On Commitment To Pro-Growth Reforms; 'BBB/A-2' Ratings Affirmed, Oct. 22, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook reflects our view that Italian authorities' progress in implementing reforms in the Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR) will boost economic growth, benefiting fiscal consolidation. Steps by the European Central Bank (ECB) since the pandemic's start to ensure a unified monetary policy within the euro area have also supported Italy's investment-led recovery.

We could revise the outlook to stable if our projections of an economic recovery followed by a back-loaded fiscal consolidation fail to materialize, or if rising contingent liabilities from the central government's extensive guarantees crystallize on its balance sheet on a large scale.

We could raise the ratings if we see Italy's economy performing better than our prognosis. Under such a scenario, the country's debt-to-GDP ratio would likely shift to a steeper downward path versus our baseline projections.

Table 17

Italy
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	30.3	31.0	32.4	35.0	33.7	31.9	35.6	36.8	38.4	39.7
GDP growth	0.8	1.3	1.7	0.9	0.4	(8.9)	6.4	4.7	1.8	1.0
GDP per capita growth	1.0	1.4	1.9	2.1	0.7	(8.4)	6.6	4.9	2.0	1.2
Current account balance/GDP	1.4	2.6	2.6	2.5	3.2	3.5	3.3	3.0	2.9	2.9
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	219.0	205.7	210.3	224.4	229.0	224.5	223.9	226.4	225.3	225.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR	255.9	239.7	255.3	218.9	224.9	287.0	257.9	248.0	239.6	230.8
GG balance/GDP	(2.6)	(2.4)	(2.4)	(2.2)	(1.6)	(9.6)	(8.8)	(5.8)	(4.4)	(3.6)
GG net debt/GDP	127.6	126.3	126.4	126.3	126.4	145.4	144.2	141.8	142.1	142.5
CPI inflation	0.1	(0.1)	1.4	1.2	0.7	(0.2)	1.7	1.7	1.2	1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	106.1	103.0	98.1	93.6	91.9	100.3	95.2	91.7	90.8	90.5
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Jersey (States of) (AA-/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: samuel.tilleray@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: States of Jersey 'AA-/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable, Jan. 14, 2022

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 2
• External assessment: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 5

Outlook: Stable:

The stable outlook reflects balanced risks to Jersey's creditworthiness over our two-year outlook horizon.

Rating pressure could build if Jersey's policymakers are unable to adequately mitigate any economic fallout from external risks, particularly to the large financial services sector. These risks could pertain, for instance, to changes in the global regulatory, tax, and competitive environment, or shifts in the U.K.'s financial sector following its departure from the EU single market. Rating pressure could also materialize if we projected that the Jersey government's access to liquid assets worth more than 100% of GDP became restricted.

We could raise the ratings if we saw a substantial improvement in the availability of external statistical data, such as full balance of payments and international investment position, potentially revealing lower external financing risks to Jersey's economy and public finances than we currently assume.

Table 18

Jersey
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	57.3	55.8	60.2	60.1	55.5	62.3	64.5	67.9	70.2	71.6
GDP growth	1.3	0.4	1.6	2.6	(8.7)	2.3	2.8	3.3	1.6	0.6
GDP per capita growth	(0.2)	(0.9)	0.5	1.6	(9.2)	1.4	1.7	2.2	0.5	(0.5)
Current account balance/GDP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Narrow net external debt/CAR	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
GG balance/GDP	1.1	1.2	1.0	0.1	(4.4)	(5.2)	(6.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(2.5)
GG net debt/GDP	(117.0)	(124.5)	(112.0)	(117.3)	(133.1)	(127.3)	(119.9)	(115.2)	(112.4)	(113.1)
CPI inflation	1.6	3.2	3.6	2.6	1.2	3.0	3.5	2.5	2.4	2.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Latvia (A+/Stable/A-1)

• Analyst: niklas.steinert@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Latvia, Aug. 16, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 3

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' view that Latvia's economic recovery will continue to gain momentum in the second half of 2021 and in 2022. Last year, the country suffered from what we consider a relatively mild recession in a global comparison. Similarly positive, the overall hit to public finances will be manageable. We expect a swift consolidation from 2022 and net debt to GDP will likely start declining as early as next year. Moreover, the ECB's monetary policy support has provided an effective backstop to the temporary fiscal stimulus.

Rating pressure could build over the next two years, should the economic effects of the pandemic prove to be more protracted, delaying recovery. This would likely lead to more fiscal stimulus and a deterioration of the government's fiscal position beyond our expectations.

We could take a positive rating action on Latvia if, after the pandemic recedes, economic growth consistently exceeds that of peers, while fiscal balances continue to narrow, putting net general government debt as a share of GDP on a firm downward trend. We could also raise our rating if we observed continuous alignment of Latvia's economy with that of the eurozone, for example through a sustained synchronization of inflation trends (for the latest research update, published on Feb. 12, 2021, click here).

Table 19

Latvia
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	13.9	14.4	15.8	17.9	18.0	17.8	20.0	21.2	22.7	24.1
GDP growth	3.9	2.4	3.3	4.0	2.5	(3.6)	4.8	4.9	3.4	2.8
GDP per capita growth	4.8	3.4	4.2	4.8	3.1	(2.9)	5.3	5.4	3.9	3.3
Current account balance/GDP	(0.6)	1.6	1.3	(0.2)	(0.7)	2.9	(0.5)	0.7	0.8	0.9
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	191.5	185.9	180.3	182.9	168.3	155.8	161.6	153.4	152.2	150.2
Narrow net external debt/CAR	53.3	52.2	56.9	49.0	46.5	45.1	37.2	36.4	35.2	30.8
GG balance/GDP	(1.4)	0.2	(0.8)	(0.8)	(0.6)	(4.5)	(6.1)	(2.8)	(1.5)	(1.5)
GG net debt/GDP	33.3	32.6	32.8	29.7	29.2	34.9	38.4	38.2	37.7	37.6
CPI inflation	0.2	0.1	2.9	2.6	2.8	0.1	2.3	2.5	1.8	1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	48.3	46.7	42.1	36.6	34.4	34.4	32.8	31.0	30.1	29.5
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Liechtenstein (AAA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: thomas.fischinger@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analyses: Liechtenstein, Nov. 29, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 1
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 3

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view of Liechtenstein's strong budgetary position, high policy effectiveness, and prudent regulatory flexibility to withstand international challenges to the country's tax model and economy. We believe the principality has sufficient financial buffers to weather the pandemic's economic effects and protect Liechtenstein's extraordinarily high economic wealth.

Pressure on the ratings could occur if we observed increased international tax or financial regulatory pressure on financial centers, including Liechtenstein. This could severely constrain the government's political strategy and effectiveness over a prolonged period. In addition, a significant weakening of the principality's financial situation, for example from persistent deficits, could weigh on the ratings (for the latest research update, published on May 29, 2020, click here).

Table 20

Liechtenstein
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	166.6	165.0	169.9	174.4	165.9	163.8	173.1	165.9	165.1	168.5
GDP growth	0.1	2.5	4.1	1.9	(2.3)	(5.5)	3.2	1.5	1.3	1.3
GDP per capita growth	(0.6)	2.0	3.3	1.2	(3.3)	(6.3)	2.5	0.8	0.6	0.6
Current account balance/GDP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Narrow net external debt/CAR	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
GG balance/GDP	3.8	3.2	3.0	3.1	3.8	1.0	0.6	1.2	1.2	0.9
GG net debt/GDP	(89.3)	(90.3)	(93.5)	(89.8)	(102.2)	(116.5)	(116.5)	(118.4)	(120.4)	(122.3)
CPI inflation	(1.1)	(0.4)	0.5	0.9	0.4	(0.7)	0.5	0.7	0.7	1.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	386.5	368.0	198.6	208.4	215.7	234.1	233.2	236.2	239.1	241.8
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Lithuania (A+/Stable/A-1)

• Analyst: ludwig.heinz@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Lithuania, Aug. 16, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 3

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' expectation of a strong post-pandemic recovery, Lithuania's strengthened external position, and the European Central Bank's (ECB's) supportive monetary policy response. At the same time, we weigh in our projection of the only temporary weakening in the country's fiscal position.

We could lower the ratings if Lithuania's external metrics deteriorated materially, and we see a significant deviation from the projected fiscal consolidation path. The latter would lead to a more protracted weakening of public finances than we expect.

We could raise the ratings on Lithuania if the country's fiscal metrics strengthened meaningfully beyond our expectations over the coming two-to-three years, or if domestic monetary conditions moved more in line with the eurozone average (for the latest research update, published on Feb. 12, 2021, click here).

Table 21

Lithuania
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	14.2	14.9	16.8	19.1	19.6	20.0	22.4	23.1	24.7	26.2
GDP growth	2.0	2.5	4.3	3.9	4.3	(0.9)	4.8	4.0	3.3	3.0
GDP per capita growth	2.8	3.7	5.8	5.4	4.9	(0.9)	4.7	4.0	3.2	2.9
Current account balance/GDP	(2.4)	(1.1)	0.6	0.3	3.5	7.4	5.0	2.7	1.1	0.2
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	141.0	140.3	138.7	134.9	127.0	111.6	115.5	122.0	125.5	126.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR	46.7	47.9	41.4	32.1	27.0	16.9	9.5	4.2	1.5	1.1
GG balance/GDP	(0.3)	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.5	(7.3)	(5.0)	(3.0)	(1.5)	(0.4)
GG net debt/GDP	36.7	35.9	32.9	30.1	29.1	37.9	40.1	40.7	40.0	38.4
CPI inflation	(0.7)	0.7	3.7	2.5	2.2	1.1	4.0	3.5	2.3	2.3
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	46.7	48.7	45.4	44.7	43.1	41.7	41.5	41.4	41.1	41.0
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Luxembourg (AAA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: marko.mrsnik@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Luxembourg, Sept. 13, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook points to our expectation that Luxembourg will maintain strong credit metrics over the next two years, overcoming the adverse economic and budgetary effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, while effectively managing evolving international tax regulation and potential external economic risks.

We could consider a negative rating action if the effects of changing corporate taxation framework regulation are more pronounced than we anticipate, or in the case of a more severe-than-expected effects from the COVID-19 pandemic on the sovereign's credit metrics. This would likely weaken the country's economic growth prospects and fiscal performance and could weigh on sovereign creditworthiness. The ratings could also come under pressure if credit growth surged to levels that jeopardized Luxembourg's economic and financial stability by, for example, sparking an unsustainable acceleration in asset valuations (for the latest research update, published on Sept. 11, 2020, click here).

Table 22

Luxembourg
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	106.7	108.0	111.3	118.4	114.4	117.2	128.7	129.3	134.5	138.8
GDP growth	2.3	5.0	1.3	2.0	3.3	(1.8)	5.5	3.7	3.2	2.5
GDP per capita growth	(0.1)	2.6	(1.2)	0.1	1.3	(3.7)	3.4	1.7	1.2	0.5
Current account balance/GDP	4.8	4.8	4.7	4.7	4.6	4.3	5.0	5.4	4.9	5.0
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	487.4	455.5	447.3	455.4	444.2	453.9	434.6	436.9	435.1	432.2
Narrow net external debt/CAR	313.9	302.1	316.1	279.1	285.9	221.1	199.5	190.0	177.8	164.9
GG balance/GDP	1.3	1.9	1.4	3.0	2.3	(3.6)	(0.7)	0.0	0.5	0.8
GG net debt/GDP	(13.6)	(16.6)	(17.0)	(15.9)	(18.2)	(13.3)	(10.6)	(10.0)	(10.1)	(10.5)
CPI inflation	0.1	0.0	2.1	2.0	1.7	0.0	2.8	2.2	2.2	2.2
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	88.2	92.4	97.5	102.0	105.2	107.8	104.9	104.4	104.5	105.2
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Malta (A-/Stable/A-2)

• Analyst: remy.carasse@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Malta, Sept. 13, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 3

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' view that Malta will contain the long-term adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on its economy and budgetary position thanks to an effective policy response. This is supported by the fiscal space and external surpluses in place at the onset of the pandemic.

We could raise the ratings on Malta if reputational risks lessen materially, while economic and budgetary performance strengthen.

We could lower the ratings if the Maltese economy doesn't recover as we expect, or if the fiscal consolidation progresses significantly slower than we anticipate (for the latest research update, published on Sept. 11, 2020, click here).

Table 23

Malta
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	25.2	26.0	29.4	32.2	31.9	29.0	31.7	32.0	33.0	34.0
GDP growth	9.6	3.8	11.0	6.1	5.7	(8.3)	4.5	5.3	4.6	4.5
GDP per capita growth	7.1	1.3	8.6	2.7	1.9	(12.0)	4.2	2.2	0.6	0.5
Current account balance/GDP	2.7	(0.6)	5.9	6.4	5.4	(2.9)	(1.0)	1.2	2.9	4.6
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	322.1	274.1	235.4	245.7	220.2	215.2	206.6	202.8	197.7	192.4
Narrow net external debt/CAR	69.1	58.8	50.6	44.4	44.5	53.7	48.9	48.3	46.1	44.0
GG balance/GDP	(0.8)	1.1	3.2	1.9	0.5	(9.7)	(8.5)	(4.4)	(2.0)	(1.0)
GG net debt/GDP	49.1	43.8	36.8	34.2	30.5	43.2	49.3	50.6	49.7	47.8
CPI inflation	1.2	0.9	1.3	1.7	1.5	0.8	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.6
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	90.5	88.2	79.9	78.4	77.2	88.7	89.3	88.3	86.9	85.6
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Netherlands (AAA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: remy.carasse@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analyses: Netherlands, Nov. 15, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that the Netherlands (unsolicited; AAA/Stable/A-1+) will contain the long-term adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on its economy and budgetary position thanks to an effective policy response. This is supported by the fiscal space and external surpluses in place at the onset of the pandemic.

We could lower the sovereign credit ratings on the Netherlands if fiscal consolidation proves to be materially slower than projected, for example because of a protracted slowdown in the economic recovery (for the latest research update, published on May 15, 2020, click here).

Table 24

Netherlands
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	45.3	46.2	48.8	53.2	52.7	52.5	58.0	59.3	61.8	64.3
GDP growth	2.0	2.2	2.9	2.4	2.0	(3.8)	4.6	3.9	2.0	1.8
GDP per capita growth	1.5	1.7	2.3	1.8	1.4	(4.5)	4.2	3.3	1.5	1.2
Current account balance/GDP	6.3	8.1	10.8	10.8	9.4	7.0	7.4	7.8	7.9	8.2
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	299.1	276.4	260.4	244.4	248.0	261.7	261.4	259.4	254.6	250.1
Narrow net external debt/CAR	215.6	211.6	202.4	168.6	182.2	212.3	193.9	192.3	187.1	181.6
GG balance/GDP	(2.1)	0.0	1.3	1.4	1.7	(4.2)	(3.6)	(2.0)	(1.0)	(0.7)
GG net debt/GDP	58.8	56.4	51.4	46.9	43.4	48.2	48.8	48.1	47.3	46.4
CPI inflation	0.2	0.1	1.3	1.6	2.7	1.1	2.2	2.0	1.8	1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	111.2	114.2	110.9	105.2	100.3	102.1	97.9	93.9	91.8	90.0
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Norway (AAA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: johanna.melinder@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Norway, Sept. 13, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 1
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
• Monetary assessment: 1

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' view that Norway has ample financial buffer and headroom to withstand a temporary economic shock, without a significant impact on its credit metrics. Norway has extremely strong fiscal and external net asset positions, which together with high wealth levels, strong institutions, and an effective monetary policy regime support the rating.

Our 'AAA' rating on Norway could come under pressure if the country's robust external and fiscal balance sheets eroded rapidly, combined with significantly weaker institutions and governance standards, or geopolitical risk rises pronouncedly. We consider this unlikely, however (for the latest research update, published on March 12, 2021, click here).

Table 25

Norway
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	74.7	70.8	75.8	82.5	76.1	67.5	80.7	82.4	85.6	88.8
GDP growth	2.0	1.1	2.3	1.1	0.9	(0.8)	3.5	3.6	2.3	1.6
GDP per capita growth	0.8	0.2	1.4	0.4	0.2	(1.5)	3.0	2.9	1.6	0.9
Current account balance/GDP	8.0	4.5	5.5	8.0	2.9	2.0	5.8	6.2	5.0	4.9
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	183.1	186.2	180.0	173.2	188.2	203.5	183.3	179.2	178.5	175.1
Narrow net external debt/CAR	(290.5)	(329.9)	(368.5)	(282.4)	(406.0)	(571.9)	(444.4)	(447.0)	(456.4)	(458.8)
GG balance/GDP	6.0	4.1	5.0	7.9	6.6	(3.0)	(0.7)	2.2	3.6	4.9
GG net debt/GDP	(204.5)	(206.5)	(220.8)	(196.5)	(245.3)	(281.8)	(275.5)	(263.1)	(258.2)	(257.9)
CPI inflation	2.2	3.6	1.8	2.8	2.2	1.3	2.9	2.0	1.6	1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	143.8	150.9	151.1	146.7	153.3	167.6	159.8	158.8	162.3	164.3
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Portugal (BBB/Stable/A-2)

• Analyst: frank.gill@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Portugal, Sept. 13, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 5
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The outlook on our long-term rating on Portugal remains stable for several reasons. We anticipate that Portugal's government will pursue policies supporting growth and gradual fiscal consolidation over the next four years, while the economy benefits from EU funds of about 30% of GDP until 2026. That said, as a consequence of the pandemic's impact, net general government debt increased to 121.1% of GDP last year from 108.9% of GDP in 2019 (excluding state guarantees related to the European Financial Stability Facility and netting out central, regional, and local government deposits, as per our methodology), albeit interest payments continued to decline. In our base case, we do not anticipate net general government debt decreasing to 2019 levels until 2025.

Should the global economy worsen significantly beyond our expectations, the impact on Portugal's finances might no longer be reconcilable with our unsolicited rating, given other credit vulnerabilities, including the country's large net external liability position.

Our rating on Portugal could also come under pressure if key outward-facing sectors, such as tourism, suffer a permanent loss in profitability, leading to a large component of the government's guarantees on private-sector debt being called.

Should Portugal's economy recover over the next three years, leading to a significant improvement in public finances, we could raise the rating. Alternatively, rating upside could arise from strengthening of the country's institutions or external position, including reduced need for short-term external funding (for the latest research update, published on Sept. 11, 2020, click here).

Table 26

Portugal
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	19.2	20.0	21.5	23.6	23.4	22.2	24.4	25.5	27.0	28.5
GDP growth	1.8	2.0	3.5	2.9	2.7	(8.4)	4.7	5.7	3.4	3.0
GDP per capita growth	2.3	2.4	3.8	3.0	2.8	(8.6)	4.7	5.9	3.6	3.2
Current account balance/GDP	0.2	1.2	1.3	0.6	0.4	(1.1)	(0.9)	(0.8)	(0.7)	(0.3)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	251.5	231.4	215.4	225.1	232.3	249.1	234.5	219.7	210.9	203.6
Narrow net external debt/CAR	266.9	242.9	252.2	213.2	212.5	268.5	242.0	217.5	199.6	184.4
GG balance/GDP	(4.5)	(1.9)	(3.0)	(0.4)	0.1	(5.8)	(4.4)	(3.2)	(2.4)	(1.8)
GG net debt/GDP	121.0	118.4	113.4	112.1	108.6	122.3	119.8	115.1	112.3	109.4
CPI inflation	0.5	0.6	1.6	1.2	0.3	(0.1)	0.8	1.2	1.2	1.2
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	146.2	134.9	124.6	118.1	109.6	120.1	114.5	109.6	107.3	105.4
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Slovakia (A+/Stable/A-1)

• Analyst: gabriel.forss@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Slovakia, Nov. 22, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances the pandemic's consequences on public finances with our expectation of an economic rebound facilitated by a steady absorption of EU funds and continued investment from the private sector into Slovakia's production.

We could lower the ratings if Slovakia's economy fails to return to the strong growth trajectory we project, resulting in material deterioration in the general government balance sheet. Should the Slovak economy be increasingly exposed to concentration risks, indicating a lack of industrial sector resilience and flexibility that are essential for its continued income convergence with more-developed EU countries, the ratings could also come under pressure.

We could raise the ratings if the Slovak economy diversifies toward higher-value-added activities and notably improves its productivity, leading to faster income convergence with other eurozone members. In this scenario, we would expect progress on structural reforms and strengthening institutions to foster a sustained improvement in the country's economic structure and fiscal position (for the latest research update, published on Jan. 22, 2021, click here).

Table 27

Slovakia
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	16.4	16.5	17.6	19.4	19.3	19.3	21.1	22.3	23.9	25.3
GDP growth	5.2	1.9	3.0	3.8	2.6	(4.4)	3.5	4.7	3.9	2.5
GDP per capita growth	5.1	1.8	2.8	3.7	2.5	(4.5)	3.5	4.5	3.7	2.4
Current account balance/GDP	(2.1)	(2.7)	(1.9)	(2.2)	(3.4)	0.1	(1.1)	(0.7)	(0.8)	(0.5)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	139.2	134.1	133.9	150.4	158.2	155.7	155.5	153.2	151.0	148.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR	37.8	40.0	45.1	41.5	43.8	56.2	49.1	45.0	41.2	37.5
GG balance/GDP	(2.7)	(2.6)	(1.0)	(1.0)	(1.3)	(5.5)	(6.8)	(4.5)	(3.7)	(3.0)
GG net debt/GDP	46.6	46.7	45.2	42.9	42.7	49.5	53.7	53.9	54.3	54.8
CPI inflation	(0.4)	(0.5)	1.4	2.5	2.8	2.0	2.7	3.9	2.4	2.3
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	53.2	57.4	60.5	62.7	63.5	68.1	69.0	69.0	69.0	69.1
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Slovenia (AA-/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: gabriel.forss@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Slovenia, Dec. 13, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 3
• External assessment: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 3
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that we anticipate that Slovenia will contain the pandemic's negative impact on its economy and public finances over the next two-to-three years, against a backdrop of significant fiscal and external buffers.

We could lower the ratings if the pandemic's fallout has a deeper and more-protracted impact on public finances, so that debt continues to rise, or if the damage to the economy permanently lowers potential growth. Although we see this as unlikely, we could also lower the ratings if political gridlock leads to a deterioration in long-term growth and fiscal management.

We could raise the long-term rating on Slovenia if, following the pandemic's temporary shock, the country's economy were to return to its previous strong trajectory, boosting its GDP per capita, while preserving its strong external position (for the latest research update, published on Dec. 11, 2020, click here).

Table 28

Slovenia
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	20.9	21.7	23.5	26.2	26.0	25.6	28.8	29.9	31.5	33.1
GDP growth	2.2	3.2	4.8	4.4	3.3	(4.2)	6.1	4.7	3.3	3.0
GDP per capita growth	2.1	3.1	4.7	4.4	2.6	(4.9)	5.4	4.1	2.7	2.4
Current account balance/GDP	3.8	4.8	6.2	6.0	6.0	7.4	5.4	5.0	4.8	4.5
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	142.4	131.8	126.4	127.5	125.2	132.8	138.6	135.8	134.1	131.1
Narrow net external debt/CAR	76.5	67.8	62.7	46.0	47.3	57.8	50.1	46.9	43.0	41.5
GG balance/GDP	(2.9)	(1.9)	(0.1)	0.7	0.4	(7.7)	(7.2)	(5.2)	(3.5)	(3.0)
GG net debt/GDP	61.5	61.5	58.9	52.3	48.7	55.8	58.3	59.6	60.2	60.5
CPI inflation	(0.8)	(0.2)	1.6	1.9	1.7	(0.3)	2.9	2.6	2.0	2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	55.4	51.7	50.1	48.0	47.3	48.3	46.3	45.0	44.5	44.2
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Spain (A/Negative/A-1)

• Analyst: frank.gill@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Spain, Sept. 20, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 3
• Economic assessment: 2
• External assessment: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Negative

The negative outlook reflects medium- to long-term risks to Spanish public finances should authorities fail to follow through on growth- and sustainability-enhancing reforms. These include measures intended to reduce duality and structural unemployment in Spain's labor market, as well as reforms that will determine pension expenditure over the longer term. We continue to believe that Spain's persistent social security deficits lower the probability of the debt to GDP stabilizing beyond 2022.

We could lower the ratings over the next two years if we thought that the country's long-term growth potential had weakened, for example due to a reversal of reforms to labor and product markets. The ratings could also come under stress should contingent liabilities stemming from state guarantees on private lending be called on a large scale, leading to increases in government debt beyond our projections.

We could revise the outlook to stable should the Spanish economy recover strongly over the next few years, budgetary consolidation accelerates, and EU transfers and reform implementation strengthen the country's growth potential. We could also revise the outlook to stable should Spain's declining, but still-elevated, net external debt fall further (for the latest research update, published on March 19, 2021, click here).

Table 29

Spain
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	25.7	26.6	28.2	30.5	29.7	27.1	29.8	31.5	33.8	35.5
GDP growth	3.8	3.0	3.0	2.3	2.1	(10.8)	4.5	7.0	4.4	2.4
GDP per capita growth	4.0	3.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	(11.6)	4.3	6.8	4.1	2.2
Current account balance/GDP	2.0	3.2	2.8	1.9	2.1	0.8	0.5	1.3	1.8	2.2
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	250.0	225.1	209.4	218.6	214.5	239.8	239.3	243.1	227.4	227.8
Narrow net external debt/CAR	255.5	241.4	259.7	224.7	229.4	320.3	261.8	243.9	222.6	206.7
GG balance/GDP	(5.2)	(4.3)	(3.0)	(2.5)	(2.9)	(11.0)	(8.1)	(5.0)	(4.0)	(3.8)
GG net debt/GDP	88.4	89.4	87.9	86.4	85.2	108.4	114.8	108.1	107.3	107.0
CPI inflation	(0.6)	(0.3)	2.0	1.7	0.8	(0.3)	2.8	2.2	1.4	1.6
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	120.8	112.1	105.3	97.7	93.1	106.6	102.4	95.9	92.0	90.1
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Sweden (AAA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: johanna.melinder@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Sweden, Aug. 16, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 1
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
• Monetary assessment: 1

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view that Sweden has plenty of headroom to withstand a temporary economic shock. With a low government debt burden, Sweden can maintain a strong and sustainable fiscal position over the long term. The country also has a strong external balance sheet and effective institutions that support the 'AAA' rating.

We could lower the rating if the economic recovery stalls significantly, leading to permanently lower economic activity and structural large fiscal deficits that would erode Sweden's current strong fiscal position. We could also take this action if the government's policy responses were heavily impaired by fragmented politics, leading to significant economic inefficiencies or imbalances (for the latest research update, published on Feb. 12, 2021, click here).

Table 30

Sweden
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	51.8	52.4	54.1	54.9	52.2	52.4	59.3	60.3	63.7	66.4
GDP growth	4.5	2.1	2.6	2.0	2.0	(2.8)	4.2	3.3	2.2	2.0
GDP per capita growth	3.4	1.0	1.1	0.7	0.9	(3.7)	3.7	2.3	1.2	1.0
Current account balance/GDP	3.3	2.4	3.0	2.6	5.5	5.7	5.2	4.9	4.6	4.7
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	239.3	220.3	205.6	230.4	202.3	209.8	209.7	204.0	198.3	193.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR	123.1	121.2	124.6	120.2	117.3	139.6	120.1	114.6	107.4	102.5
GG balance/GDP	0.0	1.0	1.4	0.8	0.6	(2.8)	(1.2)	(0.9)	(0.2)	0.0
GG net debt/GDP	29.5	27.7	25.2	24.8	23.1	27.1	26.8	26.3	25.4	24.5
CPI inflation	0.7	1.1	1.9	2.0	1.7	0.7	2.2	2.0	1.8	1.9
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	127.4	132.0	134.9	133.8	134.8	142.3	140.7	139.1	140.2	141.6
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Switzerland (AAA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: gabriel.forss@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: Full Analysis: Switzerland, Aug. 23, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 1
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
• Monetary assessment: 2

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' view that, over the coming two years, Switzerland's strong external and fiscal buffers, institutional strength, competitive economy, and effective policymaking protect the sovereign's creditworthiness from COVID-19 fallout and adverse effects from the recently ended negotiations with the EU on an institutional framework agreement.

We could lower the ratings on Switzerland in the next two years if the effectiveness and predictability of its policymaking unexpectedly deteriorated, potentially damaging the economy. A protracted and sizable drop in global demand for Swiss exports could also pressure the ratings. However, we view these scenarios as unlikely over our two-year outlook horizon (for the latest research update, published on Aug. 21, 2020, click here).

Table 31

Switzerland
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	84.3	82.6	83.0	86.1	85.0	86.8	92.5	91.2	92.3	95.4
GDP growth	1.7	2.1	1.6	2.9	1.2	(2.4)	3.3	3.3	2.1	1.6
GDP per capita growth	0.6	0.9	0.8	2.2	0.5	(3.1)	2.8	2.9	1.7	1.2
Current account balance/GDP	9.4	7.9	6.0	5.4	5.0	1.2	7.6	6.9	6.0	5.6
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	141.6	138.6	133.2	124.5	122.7	120.1	115.7	115.5	114.4	113.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR	20.5	23.6	8.9	10.8	2.4	4.4	5.6	3.2	1.6	0.6
GG balance/GDP	0.5	0.2	1.1	1.3	1.4	(2.8)	(2.3)	(0.1)	0.3	0.3
GG net debt/GDP	19.6	18.3	17.9	16.3	15.5	19.3	20.8	20.0	19.1	18.3
CPI inflation	(1.1)	(0.4)	0.5	0.9	0.4	(0.7)	0.5	0.7	0.7	1.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	164.9	168.5	173.2	173.8	178.0	186.0	183.9	182.5	182.8	183.9
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

United Kingdom (AA/Stable/A-1+)

• Analyst: aarti.sakhuja@spglobal.com
• Latest publication: United Kingdom 'AA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable, Oct. 23, 2021

Rating score snapshot:

• Institutional assessment: 2
• Economic assessment: 1
• External assessment: 2
• Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
• Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
• Monetary assessment: 1

Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects balanced risks to the U.K.'s creditworthiness over the next 24 months.

Ratings upside could arise if persistent uncertainty around the U.K.'s relations with the EU subsided. Upward ratings pressure could also build if the government's fiscal performance and debt reduction prove stronger than we anticipate.

The ratings could come under pressure if the economic recovery is significantly weaker than we anticipate, challenging fiscal consolidation. Ratings downside could also emerge if foreign financing for the U.K.'s large external deficit diminished, potentially weighing on the country's growth prospects.

Table 32

United Kingdom
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000)	45.4	41.5	40.9	43.7	43.1	41.2	47.4	49.5	51.6	53.6
GDP growth	2.6	2.3	2.1	1.7	1.7	(9.7)	6.9	4.6	2.2	1.9
GDP per capita growth	1.8	1.4	1.5	1.1	1.1	(10.1)	6.4	4.0	1.7	1.4
Current account balance/GDP	(5.2)	(5.3)	(3.6)	(3.9)	(2.7)	(2.6)	(3.0)	(3.2)	(3.1)	(2.8)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR	1,061.4	951.1	812.5	762.1	732.7	901.5	961.8	884.0	857.5	832.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR	294.7	261.1	281.5	238.3	281.7	390.6	355.5	334.0	327.9	321.7
GG balance/GDP	(4.5)	(3.3)	(2.4)	(2.2)	(2.3)	(12.0)	(9.0)	(5.5)	(4.0)	(3.0)
GG net debt/GDP	82.0	81.9	81.1	81.0	80.1	96.1	98.5	97.8	97.8	97.1
CPI inflation	0.0	0.7	2.7	2.4	1.8	0.8	2.4	3.4	1.5	1.9
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP	130.0	130.9	133.8	132.7	131.3	143.2	135.3	130.0	127.9	126.1
CAR--Current account receipts. CPI--Consumer price index. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri.

Related Research

• Global Sovereign Rating Trends 2022: Despite Stabilization, The Pandemic Threatens The Recovery, Jan. 27, 2022
• EMEA Emerging Market Sovereign Rating Trends 2022, Jan. 27, 2022
• An interactive version is available here: https://insight.spglobal.com/story/global-sovereign-outlook-2022

Primary Credit Analyst:	Remy Carasse, Paris + 33 14 420 6741; remy.carasse@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:	Frank Gill, Madrid + 34 91 788 7213; frank.gill@spglobal.com
	Marko Mrsnik, Madrid +34-91-389-6953; marko.mrsnik@spglobal.com
	Louis Portail, Paris; louis.portail@spglobal.com