FRANKFURT (S&P Global Ratings) Dec. 6, 2021--The new strong wave of COVID-19 in Europe won't derail the economy, though may slow the recovery in consumption--especially for consumer-facing services, economists at S&P Global Ratings said today.
"Businesses and consumers have learned to live with the virus and governments can easily extend or reactivate support measures. That said, the pandemic situation in Europe and elsewhere is fluid again," said Sylvain Broyer, EMEA Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings, in the report published today, "European Economic Snapshots: From Fast-Paced Recovery To Robust Expansion."
Supply chain bottlenecks are likely to extend well into next year, but they should ease gradually as well as the frictional mismatch between demand and supply. This, alongside the fading base effects of tax breaks and government measures to limit the rise in gas and energy prices next year, will translate into less inflation.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to start normalizing their monetary policy but not to return to monetary conditions that prevailed before the pandemic, before long. We believe the BoE will deliver two hikes next year to bring the bank rate to 0.5% by mid-2022.
"The ECB in our view will put an end to the pandemic emergency purchase programme in March next year but wait until early 2024 to start raising rates," Mr. Broyer said.
S&P Global Ratings believes the new omicron variant is a stark reminder that the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over. Although already declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization, uncertainty still surrounds its transmissibility, severity, and the effectiveness of existing vaccines against it. Early evidence points toward faster transmissibility, which has led many countries to close their borders with Southern Africa or reimpose international travel restrictions. Over coming weeks, we expect additional evidence and testing will show the extent of the danger it poses to enable us to make a more informed assessment of the risks to credit. Meanwhile, we expect the markets to take a precautionary stance and governments to put into place short-term containment measures. Nevertheless, we believe this shows that, once again, more coordinated, and decisive efforts are needed to vaccinate the world's population to prevent the emergence of new, more dangerous variants.
This report does not constitute a rating action.
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EMEA Chief Economist: | Sylvain Broyer, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9156; sylvain.broyer@spglobal.com |
Senior Economist: | Marion Amiot, London + 44(0)2071760128; marion.amiot@spglobal.com |
Boris S Glass, London + 44 20 7176 8420; boris.glass@spglobal.com | |
Economist: | Sarah Limbach, Paris + 33 14 420 6708; Sarah.Limbach@spglobal.com |
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