The credit quality of sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings benefited from improving economic conditions during 2019, and much of this improvement was concentrated in the Central and Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific regions. Ratings continued to serve as effective measures of relative default risk. Argentina was the only rated sovereign to default during the year (twice), and the long-term foreign currency rating on the sovereign has been speculative grade ('BB+' or lower) since we assigned the initial rating in 1993 (the long-term local currency sovereign credit rating has been speculative grade since 2000). The two sovereign defaults in 2019 marked a marginal increase from one in 2018 but remained well below the peak of six defaults (from five sovereigns) in 2017.

We took 24 rating actions on sovereigns globally in 2019, equal to the number from 2018. However, there were more upgrades and fewer downgrades than in 2018. In 2019, sovereigns experienced 18 upgrades and six downgrades, compared with 14 upgrades and 10 downgrades in 2018.

Improving economic conditions contributed to most of the upgrades, while downgrades resulted from many diverse causes related to deteriorating domestic economies or finances, as well as debt and default. By region, Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States accounted for the most upgrades in 2019, with seven, followed by Europe with five; neither of these regions had downgrades. Meanwhile, Latin America continued to lead downgrades, with three in 2019.

This study covers the period through Dec. 31, 2019. In 2020, the world's economies are battling the financial and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments of all sizes and varying capabilities have embarked on what is likely to be the largest monetary and fiscal stimulus since the end of World War II. For the latest updates on rating actions linked to COVID-19, please see "COVID-19: Coronavirus- And Oil Price-Related Public Rating Actions On Corporations, Sovereigns, And Project Finance To Date."

Ratings Distribution

The number of sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings increased to 134 as of Dec. 31, 2019, up by four from 2018. The newly rated sovereign issuers in 2019 were St. Helena and Togo, while Barbados and Mozambique were assigned new long-term foreign currency ratings after emerging from prior defaults.

Of these newly rated sovereigns, only St. Helena was rated investment grade ('BBB-' or higher). One sovereign, Croatia, was upgraded to investment grade from speculative grade in 2019, and no investment-grade sovereigns were downgraded to speculative grade. With these new issuers and rating changes, the proportion of sovereign credit ratings that are speculative grade rose to 46%, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous year. The majority of sovereigns (54%) remain investment grade.

The distribution of sovereign ratings has been trending lower since the late 1980s. For example, the percentage of speculative-grade ratings jumped to 37% in 1999 from 3% in 1990 as more countries with smaller and less diversified economies began to seek credit ratings. Many new ratings were assigned over this period, and the number of speculative-grade ratings rose to 30 from one, while the number of investment-grade ratings increased to 52 from 30.

The number of sovereigns that we rate has grown as more governments access the international bond markets. We've assigned foreign currency ratings to 145 sovereigns since 1975. During 2010-2019, the number of speculative-grade ratings increased to 61, while the number of investment-grade ratings increased to 73.

Much of the expansion in the number of rated sovereigns occurred between 1988 and 2011, when the tally grew by 103. Given the relatively small and static number of nations in the world, another such increase is unlikely. For that reason, the distribution of sovereign ratings will change almost exclusively with the movement of existing ratings.

Because a sovereign has flexibility in servicing its local currency debt based on the unique powers it enjoys within its own borders, particularly in its control of domestic financial and monetary systems, S&P Global Ratings assigns both foreign currency and local currency ratings to sovereigns. As of year-end 2019, 15 local currency sovereign credit ratings were higher than the corresponding foreign currency credit ratings. New Zealand is among the sovereigns with a long-term local currency rating ('AA+') above the long-term foreign currency rating ('AA' since 2011). This study focuses on foreign currency ratings unless otherwise noted.

Table 1

Sovereigns With Different Foreign Currency And Local Currency Ratings As Of Dec. 31, 2019
Country	Foreign currency ratings	Local currency ratings
Chile	A+/Stable/A-1	AA-/Stable/A-1+
Colombia	BBB-/Stable/A-3	BBB/Stable/A-2
Czech Republic	AA-/Stable/A-1+	AA/Stable/A-1+
Guatemala	BB-/Stable/B	BB/Stable/B
Malaysia	A-/Stable/A-2	A/Stable/A-1
Mexico	BBB+/Negative/A-2	A-/Negative/A-2
Mozambique	CCC+/Stable/C	B-/Stable/B
New Zealand	AA/Positive/A-1+	AA+/Positive/A-1+
Peru	BBB+/Stable/A-2	A-/Stable/A-2
Poland	A-/Stable/A-2	A/Stable/A-1
Russia	BBB-/Stable/A-3	BBB/Stable/A-2
South Africa	BB/Negative/B	BB+/Negative/B
Thailand	BBB+/Positive/A-2	A-/Positive/A-2
Turkey	B+/Stable/B	BB-/Stable/B
Venezuela	SD/--/D	CCC-/Negative/C
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Rating Movement In 2019

Last year was the second year in a row that sovereign upgrades surpassed downgrades, and many of these upgrades were concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific. The number of upgrades has consistently risen and downgrades have fallen since 2016. The 18 upgrades in 2019 were evenly split between investment- and speculative-grade sovereigns. Of the six sovereigns downgraded during the year, four were speculative grade, and many of these downgrades followed a weakening of the country's economic or financial position.

To measure rating transitions over a one-year horizon, we use a static pool approach to compare the issuer credit ratings as of the beginning of the year with those as of year-end. This approach measures the net rating migration for an issuer during the course of the year, rather than the number of times a rating changed.

For example, for the purposes of this study, a rating that we lowered twice in 2019 translates to one issuer with a rating lowered during the year, rather than two individual downgrades. Similarly, if we lowered a rating but later raised it to the former rating by the end of the year, the study wouldn't consider this a rating transition because the rating as of year-end was the same as the rating as of the beginning of the year.

In 2019, most rating movements were moderate, with no more than one-notch movements for all but two sovereigns. Table 2 displays the magnitude of the sovereign rating changes in 2019.

Table 2

Main Causes Of Sovereign Rating Changes (2019)
Number of notches	Finances	Economy	Debt	Political	Liquidity	Management	Default
(7)							Argentina
(2)	Lebanon
(1)	Curacao	Pakistan, Trinidad and Tobago	Zambia
1	Croatia, Georgia, Greece, Portugal	Rwanda, Serbia, Vietnam, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Panama, Slovenia, Philippines, Indonesia, Hungary, Ireland, Spain		Fiji	Jamaica
Negative numbers signify downgrades. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

The largest rating action was on Argentina, which we downgraded by seven notches during the year, to 'SD' (selective default), from 'B' at the start of 2019. Argentina defaulted twice in the course of the year as the government unilaterally extended the maturity of short-term paper in August and again in December. S&P Global Ratings considered these extensions to be distressed exchanges. Argentina had experienced two prior defaults before these, one in 2014 and another in 2001, for a total of four--more defaults than we've observed for any other sovereign.

The other multinotch downgrade during 2019 was on Lebanon, with a two-notch downgrade, ending 2019 at 'CCC', from 'B-' at the start of the year. Lebanon experienced diminished confidence in its governance and economy that led to a reversal in bank deposit inflows, which have historically financed the country's elevated fiscal and external deficits.

Among the six sovereigns downgraded in 2019, the two most common reasons for those downgrades were weakening economic positions and weakening financial positions. Pakistan and Trinidad and Tobago were each downgraded as a result of weakening economic growth. Meanwhile, Lebanon and Curacao were downgraded due to weakening financial positions. Curacao was downgraded by one notch following subdued activity at the La Isla refinery. The lack of revenue from this refinery contributed to the country's declining fiscal position.

The other sovereign downgraded during the year was Zambia, due to its low foreign currency reserves and its rising external debt service obligations.

Economic improvement was the most commonly cited factor in 12 one-notch sovereign upgrades in 2019. Improving finances, including budget surpluses and accumulation of foreign reserves, contributed to four one-notch upgrades during the year. Additionally, one sovereign, Fiji, was upgraded for its improved political stability, following two successive democratic elections, and another, Jamaica, was upgraded because of strengthened external liquidity.

Since 1975, 79% of sovereign rating actions have been rating movements of one notch. The majority of all sovereign rating actions and one-notch sovereign rating actions have been upgrades. However, most rating actions of more than one notch have been downgrades, and so the aggregate rating movement--as measured by the cumulative number of notches changed--has been decidedly negative.

In 2019, the average notch change was lower than in 2018 and less positive than in 2017. The average upgrade in 2019 was of 1.00 notch, compared with an average upgrade of 1.07 notches in 2018. The average downgrade in 2019 was of 1.20 notches, slightly lower than the average of 1.22 notches in 2018.

Historically, the largest rating change ever in a single year was a series of four downgrades of the Republic of Korea (South Korea) in 1997, which brought the sovereign credit rating to 'B+' from 'AA-', a 10-notch drop. This was during the Asian financial crisis, and South Korea was one of the nations hardest hit. Since then, we've raised our rating on South Korea nine times, and the long-term sovereign credit rating is currently 'AA'.

S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings continue to serve as effective indicators of relative default risk. To measure ratings performance, we use the Gini ratio, which is a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon, from one through seven years. The Gini ratio shows the ratio of actual rank-ordering performance to theoretically perfect rank ordering. A Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating a stronger relationship between lower rating categories and higher default rates. (For details on the Gini methodology, see Appendix 1.)

Among the sovereigns that defaulted in 1975-2019, the one-, three-, five-, and 10-year average foreign currency Gini coefficients were 91%, 79.7%, 74.1%, and 70%, respectively (see charts 12-15). We used the number of sovereign credit ratings at the beginning of each year as the weights for the weighted averages. We found that there is a strong inverse relationship between higher ratings and observed defaults. In other words, sovereigns that have defaulted were generally rated at the lower end of our ratings spectrum prior to doing so.

Rating And Default Activity In 2019

An analysis of transition rates for sovereigns shows that higher ratings correspond negatively with the observed frequency of default. Furthermore, investment-grade-rated sovereigns tend to exhibit greater ratings stability (as measured by the frequency of rating transitions) than those rated speculative grade.

From 1975-2019, on average, 96.7% of sovereigns that were rated 'AAA' maintained that rating over a one-year horizon, and the stability rate remained elevated over longer time horizons as well, at 90.1% over three years, 84.4% over five years, 73.3% over 10 years, and 68.1% over 15 years (see tables 3-7).

Ratings tend to show higher rates of transition over a longer time horizon: Upgrades and downgrades are broadly balanced over a one-year time horizon, but over longer time horizons, upgrades have tended to exceed downgrades in the 'BBB' to 'B' rating categories.

Moreover, even among those 'AAA' sovereigns that transitioned over a 15-year period, very few fell below the 'AA' category. On average, 28.0% of sovereigns rated 'AAA' transitioned to the 'AA' category over a 15-year horizon. Over the same horizon, less than 1.5% of 'AAA' sovereigns migrated to speculative grade, and none transitioned to 'SD'.

Table 3

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1975-2019)*
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.65	3.26	0.01	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	2.42	93.59	2.86	0.32	0.28	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.48
A	0.00	3.87	90.53	4.99	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.23
BBB	0.00	0.00	5.22	89.70	4.46	0.45	0.15	0.00	0.02
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.38	86.40	6.03	0.57	0.47	0.14
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	4.99	88.28	2.90	2.70	1.11
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	31.01	29.66	39.33	0.00
Note: Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. *Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 4

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates (1975-2019)*
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.11	8.73	0.09	0.17	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.46
AA	7.66	81.64	7.64	2.16	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59
A	0.00	10.82	72.72	13.12	1.90	0.11	0.31	0.51	0.51
BBB	0.00	0.00	16.21	69.26	11.56	1.23	0.27	1.10	0.38
BB	0.00	0.00	0.23	17.83	64.47	13.50	0.80	2.47	0.70
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.32	12.72	71.62	3.24	8.69	3.42
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.08	28.73	11.11	59.08	0.00
Note: Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. *Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 5

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1975-2019)*
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.36	13.10	0.14	0.90	0.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66
AA	13.23	70.94	12.08	2.36	0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66
A	0.00	17.45	57.01	19.71	3.09	0.12	0.34	1.73	0.56
BBB	0.00	0.05	24.27	55.30	14.44	2.13	0.41	2.40	1.01
BB	0.00	0.00	1.66	21.55	53.80	15.81	1.20	4.72	1.26
B	0.00	0.00	0.04	2.86	15.72	59.97	2.57	13.89	4.95
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63	3.15	23.97	10.41	61.83	0.00
Note: Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. *Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 6

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates (1975-2019)*
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	73.27	21.72	1.26	1.33	0.53	0.56	0.00	0.00	1.33
AA	26.33	51.71	13.32	6.28	2.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	1.75	24.53	41.61	18.79	6.19	0.89	0.44	5.49	0.32
BBB	0.00	4.32	33.20	37.52	14.58	2.12	0.54	5.08	2.63
BB	0.00	0.00	4.97	33.89	32.82	15.25	1.34	10.96	0.77
B	0.00	0.00	0.07	6.62	23.84	38.39	1.10	24.12	5.87
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.42	17.52	0.00	79.06	0.00
Note: Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. *Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 7

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1975-2019)*
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	68.14	28.04	1.03	0.00	0.50	0.88	0.00	0.00	1.41
AA	35.57	36.91	12.62	10.98	3.14	0.33	0.25	0.20	0.00
A	4.97	28.72	38.07	15.16	1.44	2.83	0.80	8.01	0.00
BBB	0.00	11.77	38.10	19.15	14.81	3.30	0.73	8.32	3.82
BB	0.00	0.00	6.08	45.80	20.75	10.38	0.34	16.65	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.14	11.80	19.87	34.76	0.14	32.72	0.56
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.50	0.00	0.81	0.00	92.68	0.00
Note: Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. *Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Another gauge of ratings stability is the average time a sovereign spends at a particular rating. Table 8 shows the average number of years that the particular rating had been effective as of Dec. 31, 2019. 'AAA' ratings are much more stable than any other rating category. At the rating modifier level, a few of the ratings currently show lower stability than the rating directly below them. However, all rating categories show more stability than the rating category directly below them, with the exception of the 'BB' category, which is slightly less stable than the 'B' category. The 'CCC'/'CC' category shows the lowest rating stability, with an average time spent by current issuers in this rating category of less than one year.

Table 8

Average Time Spent At All Ratings Prior To Rating On Dec. 31, 2019
Rating	Average years	Issuer count
AAA	19.97	11
AA+	5.11	4
AA	4.28	7
AA-	3.21	9
A+	2.79	5
A	3.68	5
A-	2.70	5
BBB+	1.89	9
BBB	2.38	8
BBB-	2.57	10
BB+	2.53	3
BB	3.02	5
BB-	2.77	10
B+	2.12	12
B	1.90	16
B-	1.80	10
CCC/CC	0.59	5
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Large rating transitions are not common among sovereigns. The more pronounced, multinotch downgrades tend to be on sovereigns that defaulted from a low rating category. For example, Argentina was downgraded to 'SD' from 'B-' on Aug. 16, 2019--a six-notch downgrade. The vast majority of downgrades are of one or--far less often--two notches. Sovereign upgrades within a calendar year seldom exceed one notch.

Sovereign local currency rating transition rates

As with foreign currency sovereign credit ratings, higher local currency ratings have generally been more stable than lower ones.

Table 9

Sovereign Local Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1993-2019)*
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	95.85	4.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.44	91.90	5.19	0.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.58
A	0.00	2.74	90.50	6.02	0.35	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.21
BBB	0.00	0.00	5.09	87.72	6.45	0.60	0.11	0.00	0.02
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.53	84.86	7.79	0.95	0.69	0.18
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.36	89.05	2.51	1.59	1.48
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	44.76	43.10	12.14	0.00
Note: Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1993 and 2019 annualized. *Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 10

Sovereign Local Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1993-2019)*
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	80.50	17.37	0.16	1.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.83
AA	6.37	62.82	25.22	4.03	0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.82
A	0.00	12.97	58.64	19.77	4.86	0.62	0.33	1.68	1.14
BBB	0.00	0.00	19.33	52.00	20.68	5.05	0.78	1.67	0.49
BB	0.00	0.00	1.64	18.97	45.85	26.52	1.98	3.37	1.67
B	0.00	0.00	0.26	2.35	19.35	62.68	3.42	5.36	6.59
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.63	0.70	56.34	8.80	28.52	0.00
Note: Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1993 and 2019 annualized. *Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 11

Sovereign Local Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1993-2019)*
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	65.80	25.67	3.57	2.28	0.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.11
AA	3.43	31.29	31.97	21.53	4.10	1.95	1.55	4.17	0.00
A	2.94	23.17	34.88	11.33	9.96	4.76	0.38	8.02	4.57
BBB	0.00	2.85	24.85	37.06	23.03	6.80	0.00	5.41	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	7.41	26.78	34.95	20.04	0.38	10.45	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.87	17.49	51.99	2.48	9.18	0.99
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.75	31.25	1.04	0.00	48.96	0.00
Note: Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1993 and 2019 annualized. *Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

In 2019, the average notch change for local currency ratings was near that for foreign currency ratings. The average number of notches of local currency downgrades held at 1.20 in 2019, nearly unchanged from 1.22 in 2018. The average magnitude of local currency upgrades decreased to 1.00 notch in 2019 from 1.08 notches in 2018.

Sovereign Defaults

There were two sovereign defaults in 2019 (both from Argentina), up from one default in 2018 (Barbados). The pace of defaults has slowed since 2017, which had the most defaults on record, with six. That year's defaults included several Latin American sovereigns, such as Venezuela, Belize, and El Salvador (with two defaults).

Rated sovereigns have recorded at least one default annually for eight consecutive years. From 2010-2019, an average of 2.1 sovereigns defaulted per year, higher than over the 1999-2019 period, when defaults averaged 1.66 per year.

Over our rating history, 20 sovereigns have defaulted, and half of these have defaulted multiple times. Six sovereigns defaulted twice, and three have defaulted three times. Argentina is the only sovereign to have defaulted four times (see table 12).

Defaults of sovereign members of a monetary union (such as Greece and Cyprus within the eurozone) are counted as foreign currency defaults because the individual country has no sovereign control over the common currency. In line with this reasoning, the local currency ratings on eurozone sovereigns converged with the (often lower) foreign currency ratings when they joined.

Table 12

Sovereign Foreign Currency Selective Defaults
Country	Selective default date	Emergence date	Time in selective default	Rating one year before selective default	Rating three years before selective default
Russia	Jan. 27, 1999	Dec. 8, 2000	22 months	BB-	-
Pakistan	Jan. 29, 1999	Dec. 21, 1999	11 months	B+	B+
Indonesia, first default	March 29, 1999	March 30, 1999	One day	B-	BBB
Indonesia, second default	Apr. 17, 2000	Oct. 2, 2000	Six months	CCC+	BBB
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	June 1, 2005	54 months	BB	BB
Indonesia, third default	Apr. 22, 2002	Sep. 5, 2002	Four months	B-	CCC+
Paraguay	Feb. 13, 2003	July 26, 2004	18 months	B	B
Uruguay	May 16, 2003	June 2, 2003	One month	BB-	BBB-
Grenada, first default	Dec. 30, 2004	Nov. 18, 2005	11 months	BB-	-
Venezuela, first default	Jan. 18, 2005	March 3, 2005	One month	B-	B
Dominican Republic	Feb. 1, 2005	Jun. 29, 2005	Five months	CCC	BB-
Belize, first default	Dec. 7, 2006	Feb. 20, 2007	Three months	CCC-	B+
Seychelles*	Aug. 7, 2008	-	-	B	-
Ecuador	Dec. 15, 2008	Jun. 15, 2009	Six months	B-	CCC+
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Feb. 24, 2010	One month	B	B
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	May. 2, 2012	Two months	BB+	A-
Belize, second default	Aug. 21, 2012	March 20, 2013	Seven months	B-	B
Grenada, second default	Oct. 8, 2012	Oct. 16, 2012	One week	B-	B-
Greece, second default	Dec. 5, 2012	Dec. 18, 2012	Two weeks	CC	A-
Jamaica, second default	February 12, 2013	March 6, 2013	22 days	B-	SD
Grenada, third default§	March 12, 2013	-	-	B-	B-
Cyprus	June 28, 2013	July 3, 2013	Five days	BB+	A+
Argentina, second default	July 30, 2014	May 6, 2016	22 months	B-	B
Ukraine	Sep. 25, 2015	Oct. 19, 2015	One month	CCC	B+
Mozambique, first default	April 1, 2016	April 15, 2016	15 days	B	B+
Congo-Brazzaville, first default	August 2, 2016	August 9, 2016	One week	B	-
Mozambique, second default	January 18, 2017	-	-	B-	B+
Belize, third default	March 17, 2017	March 23, 2017	Six days	B-	B-
El Salvador, first default	April 20, 2017	May 5, 2017	15 days	B+	BB-
Congo-Brazzaville, second default	August 1, 2017	Sept. 5, 2015	One month	B-	B+
El Salvador, second default	October 2, 2017	October 3, 2017	One day	B+	BB-
Venezuela, second default	November 13, 2017	-	-	CCC	CCC+
Barbados	June 6, 2018	-	-	CCC+	B
Argentina, third default	August 29, 2019	August 30, 2019	One day	B+	B-
Argentina, fourth default	December 20, 2019	December 30, 2019	10 days	B	B-
Note: Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. *The rating on Seychelles was withdrawn while it was still in default. §The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 13

Sovereign Local Currency Selective Defaults
Country	Selective default date	Emergence date	Time in selective default	Rating one year before selective default	Rating three years before selective default
Dominican Republic	Apr. 9, 1999	Jun. 12, 2001	26 months	BB	-
Suriname	Jan. 1, 2000	Feb. 2, 2001	13 months	-	-
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Jun. 1, 2005	43 months	BBB-	BBB-
Cameroon	Sep. 1, 2004	Dec. 3, 2004	Three months	-	-
Grenada, first default	Jan. 1, 2005	Nov. 18, 2005	11 months	BB-	-
Grenada, second default*	Dec. 1, 2006	Apr. 2, 2007	Four months	B-	BB-
Ecuador	Dec. 15, 2008	Jun. 15, 2009	Six months	B-	CCC+
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Feb. 24, 2010	One month	B	B
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	May. 2, 2012	Two months	BB+	A-
Greece, second default*	Dec. 5, 2012	Dec. 18, 2012	Two weeks	CC	A-
Jamaica, second default	February 12, 2013	March 6, 2013	22 days	B-	B-
Grenada, third default	March 12, 2013	-	-	B-	B-
Cyprus	June 28, 2013	July 3, 2013	Five days	BB+	A+
El Salvador, first default	April 20, 2017	May 5, 2017	15 days	B+	BB-
El Salvador, second default*	October 2, 2017	October 3, 2017	One day	B+	BB-
Barbados	Aug. 7, 2018	Nov. 16, 2018	Three months	CCC+	B
Argentina, second default	August 29, 2019	August 30, 2019	One day	B+	B-
Note: Cameroon and Grenada (excluding the third default) cured their local currency defaults before the ratings were changed. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. *These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

During 1975-2019, no sovereign rated 'AAA' at the beginning of a month defaulted within the ensuing 180 months (15 years). Moreover, the cumulative default rates were generally higher at lower rating levels, as one would expect. For example, from 1975-2019, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'A' category was only about 1.4%. By comparison, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'BBB' category was 2.3%; the 'BB' category, 4.1%; the 'B' category, 14%; and the 'CCC'/'CC' categories, 59.5%.

The 15-year cumulative default rate averaged 3.5% for sovereigns with investment-grade ratings and 23.4% for sovereigns with speculative-grade ratings. The same trends are generally true when calculating default rates disaggregated by rating category. Apart from the 'A+' and 'A' ratings, which include the defaults of Greece and Cyprus, the cumulative default rates for ratings with modifiers were higher at lower ratings. These statistics, which reflect many years of monthly data, suggest that foreign currency ratings have been strong indicators of default probability and the imminence of default (see table 35 in Appendix 3).

Table 14

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)*
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.26	0.81	1.38	1.97	2.59	3.24	3.92	4.65	5.45	6.31	7.24	7.77	8.94
BBB	0.00	0.47	1.22	1.76	2.32	2.94	3.60	3.97	4.36	4.79	5.25	5.75	6.28	7.43	8.05
BB	0.41	1.47	2.14	2.84	4.07	5.36	6.74	8.53	9.80	10.83	11.58	12.39	13.30	14.30	14.86
B	2.26	5.62	8.63	11.45	14.03	16.07	18.30	20.42	21.77	22.91	24.62	26.09	26.66	27.33	28.12
CCC/CC	38.64	45.72	53.86	56.57	59.47	65.26	68.15	68.15	68.15	68.15	68.15	68.15	68.15	68.15	68.15
Investment grade	0.00	0.11	0.34	0.59	0.84	1.10	1.38	1.60	1.83	2.07	2.33	2.61	2.90	3.21	3.54
Speculative grade	2.888	5.37	7.50	9.33	11.29	13.13	14.98	16.84	18.09	19.11	20.25	21.30	22.01	22.81	23.42
All rated	1.08	2.06	2.98	3.80	4.65	5.47	6.29	7.06	7.62	8.11	8.64	9.15	9.56	10.00	10.40
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Generally, the cumulative default rates by rating category have been higher for foreign currency sovereign credit ratings than for local currency sovereign credit ratings (see tables 23 and 24). The local currency sovereign default rates could be understated because it is hard to detect forced rollovers of domestic bank debt or coerced exchanges of local law, local currency debt when domestic financial institutions hold the debt. But also, as our "Sovereign Rating Methodology" explains, we consider that--other things being equal--the probability of default on a sovereign's local currency obligation could be lower than on a foreign currency obligation.

Furthermore, part of the discrepancy may stem from the smaller sample size of the pool of local currency ratings compared with that of foreign currency ratings (the foreign currency series begins in 1975, and the local currency one begins in 1993).

Table 15

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1993-2019)*
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.57	1.19	1.88	2.62	3.42
A	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.78	1.34	1.93	2.55	3.20	3.88	5.01	5.83	6.72	7.71	8.86	10.21
BBB	0.00	0.54	1.12	1.43	1.76	2.12	2.90	3.32	3.79	3.79	3.79	3.79	3.79	3.79	3.79
BB	0.52	1.34	1.63	1.94	2.60	3.29	3.67	4.50	5.42	5.93	6.50	7.15	7.91	8.81	9.89
B	1.39	2.70	4.12	4.90	5.75	6.71	7.78	8.97	9.43	10.47	11.67	12.39	13.21	14.20	14.20
CCC/C	16.22	19.11	22.34	29.40	37.25	46.21	50.69	50.69	50.69	50.69	50.69	50.69	50.69	50.69	50.69
Investment grade	0.00	0.13	0.33	0.53	0.75	0.99	1.31	1.57	1.85	2.15	2.47	2.82	3.21	3.63	4.09
Speculative grade	1.63	2.79	3.79	4.60	5.63	6.75	7.63	8.61	9.26	10.00	10.84	11.48	12.23	13.13	13.66
All rated	0.58	1.08	1.55	1.96	2.45	2.97	3.48	3.96	4.35	4.77	5.23	5.66	6.13	6.66	7.14
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereigns that approach default usually experience multiple successive downgrades as the likelihood of default increases. Table 16 shows the last date of the highest rating, the number of intermediate rating actions (including outlook revisions) before default, and the date of the sovereign's default.

Table 16

Length Of Time To Default
Government	Date of default	Date of initial rating	Highest rating/outlook before default	Last date of highest rating	Number of intermediate rating actions
Foreign currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Russia	Jan. 27, 1999	Oct. 7, 1996	BB-/Stable	Jun. 8, 1998	4
Pakistan	Jan. 29, 1999	Nov. 21, 1994	B+/Positive	May. 31, 1998	4
Indonesia, first default	Mar. 29, 1999	Jul. 20, 1992	BBB/Stable	Oct. 9, 1997	7
Indonesia, second default	Apr. 17, 2000	Mar. 30, 1999	CCC+/Stable	Apr. 16, 2000	0
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Aug. 25, 1993	BB/Stable	Nov. 13, 2000	7
Indonesia, third default	Apr. 22, 2001	Oct. 2, 2000	B-/Stable	May. 20, 2001	2
Paraguay	Feb. 13, 2003	Oct. 23, 1995	BB-/Stable	Feb. 3, 1999	3
Uruguay	May. 16, 2003	Feb. 14, 1994	BBB-/Stable	Feb. 13, 2002	7
Grenada, first default	Dec. 30, 2004	Mar. 22, 2002	BB-/Stable	Sep. 16, 2004	2
Venezuela, first default	Jan. 18, 2005	Oct. 5, 1977	AAA	Aug. 12, 1982	14
Dominican Republic	Feb. 1, 2005	Feb. 13, 1997	BB-/Stable	Jun. 9, 2003	5
Belize, first default	Dec. 7, 2006	Aug. 22, 2000	BB/Stable	Oct. 22, 2001	7
Seychelles*	Aug. 7, 2008	Sep. 14, 2006	B/Stable	July. 31, 2008	1
Ecuador	Dec. 15, 2008	Aug. 25, 2000	B-/Stable	Nov. 13, 2008	7
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Nov. 9, 1999	B+/Stable	Jul. 27, 2003	5
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	Sep. 9, 1988	A+/Stable	Nov. 16, 2004	13
Belize, second default	Aug. 21, 2012	Feb. 20, 2007	B/Stable	Aug. 3, 2011	4
Grenada, second default	Oct. 8, 2012	Nov. 18, 2005	B-/Stable	Oct. 7, 2012	2
Greece, second default	Dec. 5, 2012	May. 2, 2012	CCC/Stable	Dec. 4, 2012	0
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	February 24, 2010	B-/Stable	Feb. 11, 2013	0
Grenada, third default*	Mar. 12, 2013	October 16, 2012	CCC+/Negative	Mar. 11, 2013	0
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	February 14, 1994	AA-/Stable	Nov. 8, 1998	12
Argentina, second default	Jul. 30, 2014	June 1, 2005	B+/Stable	Aug. 10, 2008	8
Ukraine	Sep. 25, 2015	December 21, 2001	BB-/Stable	Jun. 11, 2008	14
Mozambique, first default	Apr. 1, 2016	Jul. 7, 2004	B+/Stable	Feb. 13, 2014	4
Congo-Brazzaville, first default	Aug. 2, 2016	Oct. 22, 2013	B+/Stable	Feb. 8, 2015	2
Mozambique, second default	Jan. 18, 2017	Apr. 15, 2016	B-/Stable	May. 26, 2016	2
Belize, third default	Mar. 17, 2017	Mar. 20, 2013	B-/Positive	Nov. 13, 2016	2
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	Aug. 26, 1996	BB+/Stable	May. 11, 2009	7
Congo-Brazzaville, second default	Aug. 1, 2017	Aug. 9, 2016	B-/Stable	Jul. 6, 2017	1
El Salvador, second default	Oct. 2, 2017	May. 5, 2017	CC/Negative	Oct. 1, 2017	0
Venezuela, second default	Nov. 13, 2017	Mar. 3, 2005	BB-/Positive	Aug. 18, 2011	9
Barbados	June 6, 2018	Dec. 17, 1999	A-/Stable	Aug. 4, 2004	9
Argentina, third default	August 29, 2019	May 6, 2016	B+/Stable	Oct. 30, 2017	4
Argentina, fourth default	December 20, 2019	August 30, 2019	CCC-/Negative	August 30, 2019	0
Local currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Dominican Republic	Apr. 9, 1999	Nov. 12, 1997	BB/Stable	Apr. 8, 1999	0
Suriname	Jan. 1, 2000	Nov. 23, 1999	B/Stable	Dec. 31, 1999	0
Argentina	Nov. 6, 2001	Sep. 1, 1994	BBB-/Stable	Nov. 13, 2000	6
Cameroon	Sep. 1, 2004	Nov. 26, 2003	B/Stable	Aug. 31, 2004	0
Grenada, first default	Jan. 1, 2005	Mar. 22, 2002	BB-/Stable	Sep. 16, 2004	3
Grenada, second default*	Dec. 1, 2006	Nov. 18, 2005	B-/Stable	Nov. 30, 2006	0
Ecuador	Dec. 15, 2008	Aug. 25, 2000	B-/Stable	Nov. 13, 2008	6
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Nov. 9, 1999	BB-/Stable	Jul. 27, 2003	6
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	Mar. 26, 1997	A+/Stable	Nov. 16, 2004	10
Greece, second default	Dec. 5, 2012	May. 2, 2012	CCC/Stable	Dec. 4, 2012	0
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Feb. 24, 2010	B-/Stable	Feb. 11, 2013	0
Grenada, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	Apr. 2, 2007	B-/Stable	Oct. 7, 2012	2
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Jul. 16, 1996	AA+/Stable	Nov. 8, 1998	14
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	Aug. 26, 1996	BBB+/Stable	Jan. 22, 2001	7
El Salvador, second default	Oct. 2, 2017	May. 5, 2017	CC/Negative	Oct. 1, 2017	0
Barbados	Aug. 7, 2018	Dec. 17, 1999	AA-/Stable	Aug. 19, 2003	11
Argentina, second default	August 29, 2019	June 1, 2005	B+/Stable	Oct. 30, 2017	12
Notes: Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. Grenada cured its first two local currency defaults before ratings were changed. *The ratings on Seychelles and Grenada were withdrawn while still in default. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

On average, for those sovereigns that eventually default, there is a correlation between the initial rating and the time to default--the higher the rating, the longer the time to default. For example, for the entire pool of sovereign defaults (1975-2019), the average times to default for issuers that were originally rated in the 'AA' and 'BBB' categories were 19.37 years and 15.08 years, respectively, from the initial ratings, whereas issuers in the 'B' rating category had an average time to default of only 6.37 years.

When an issuer emerges from a default (including selective default), we treat it as a new entity with a newly assigned initial rating. Tables 17 and 18 display the median, average, and standard deviations for the time to default from the original rating for foreign currency and local currency ratings. Tables 19 and 20 present the average and median times to default from the date that each entity received each unique rating in its path to default, excluding the original rating.

In both cases, the standard deviation of the times to default shrinks progressively as the rating gets lower within speculative grade. Generally speaking, the average time to default for each rating category is longer when based on the initial rating on a sovereign than when based on later ratings.

Charts 8-11 show how defaulted sovereigns that were rated higher generally took longer to default than lower-rated sovereigns.

Table 17

Time To Default From Original Rating--Foreign Currency Ratings (Years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	27.29	27.29	--	1
AA	19.37	19.37	--	1
A	18.47	18.47	--	1
BBB	15.08	15.08	11.86	2
BB	8.11	7.31	6.12	7
B	6.37	6.19	4.08	18
CCC/CC	0.55	0.41	0.30	5
Total	7.70	6.69	7.03	35
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 18

Time To Default From Original Rating--Local Currency Ratings (Years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	--	--	--	0
AA	17.80	17.80	1.19	2
A	14.92	14.92	--	1
BBB	13.92	13.92	9.52	2
BB	2.09	2.09	0.97	2
B	5.78	5.64	5.26	8
CCC/CC	2.32	0.59	3.14	3
Total	7.54	6.56	6.94	18
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 19

Time To Default From All But Original Rating--Foreign Currency Ratings (Years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	--	--	--	0
AA	22.43	22.43	--	1
A	9.32	8.72	6.10	1
BBB	7.49	5.92	6.48	4
BB	6.13	4.57	5.97	4
B	3.48	2.27	3.43	12
CCC/CC	1.10	0.48	1.62	6
NR	3.74	3.74	--	1
Total	3.87	1.72	4.80	29
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 20

Time To Default From All But Original Rating--Local Currency Ratings (Years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	--	--	--	0
AA	14.10	14.10	0.75	1
A	7.96	8.57	4.38	2
BBB	4.55	2.20	3.62	0
BB	5.09	4.71	4.73	3
B	3.75	1.87	4.14	3
CCC/CC	1.31	0.44	2.14	1
NR	4.50	4.50	--	1
Total	4.26	2.22	4.49	11
NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Appendix 1: Gini Ratios

In addition to examining the absolute performance of ratings, we examine their relative performance. We utilize the Lorenz curve, a graphical representation of the proportionality of a distribution, as one measure of relative ratings performance, and we summarize this via the Gini coefficient. For this study, the Lorenz curve is plotted with the x-axis showing the cumulative share of issuers, arranged by rating, while the y-axis represents the cumulative share of defaulters, also arranged by rating. For both axes of the Lorenz curve, the observations are ordered from the low end of the ratings scale ('CCC'/'CC') to the high end ('AAA').

As an example, if 'CCC'/'CC' rated entities made up 10% of the total population of issuers at the start of the time frame examined (x-axis) and 50% of the defaulters (y-axis), then the coordinate (10, 50) would be the first point on the curve. If S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings only randomly approximated default risk, the Lorenz curve would fall along the diagonal. Its Gini coefficient--which is a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--would thus be zero. If the ratings were perfectly rank ordered so that all defaults occurred only among the lowest-rated entities, the curve would capture all of the area above the diagonal on the graph (the ideal curve), and the Gini coefficient would be 1.

Lorenz curves for foreign currency and local currency sovereign credit ratings resemble the ideal Lorenz curves, though the small sample size results in less accurate readings than in larger sectors. A larger number of data points would register a smooth line that curves as in chart 12. Many of the other charts show lines that take sharp turns, resulting in angles rather than curves.

Chart 12 shows the one-year Lorenz curve for sovereign foreign currency ratings. The first point indicates that sovereigns rated 'CCC' and lower accounted for 1.3% of ratings and 45% of defaults over a one-year horizon. Table 21 further illustrates these details. Sovereigns rated 'B+' and lower accounted for close to 21% of sovereign ratings and yet nearly 94% of defaults. Because there are no defaults at any higher rating than 'BB-', the chart shows a strong relationship between speculative-grade ratings and defaults. Fewer defaults come from the higher-rated cohorts of sovereigns.

Table 21

Sovereign One-Year Lorenz Curve Values
(%)	Y-axis: cumulative proportion of defaults	X-axis: cumulative proportion of ratings
AAA	100	100
AA+	100	80.59
AA	100	75.46
AA-	100	70.37
A+	100	66.32
A	100	62.94
A-	100	57.31
BBB+	100	52.21
BBB	100	48.33
BBB-	100	43.60
BB+	100	37.12
BB	100	32.57
BB-	100	26.90
B+	93.94	20.65
B	87.88	13.03
B-	75.76	5.94
CCC/CC	45.45	1.28
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

The sovereign foreign currency Gini coefficients for the one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons are 91%, 79.7%, 74.1%, and 70%, respectively. The sovereign local currency Gini coefficients for the one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons are 81.6%, 72.1%, 65.4%, and 56.9%, respectively (see charts 12-19).

The Gini coefficients for foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are higher than local currency Gini coefficients over each time horizon. Foreign currency and local currency Gini coefficients are based on two separate datasets. Foreign currency ratings present a larger sample, with ratings over a longer time horizon and more defaults, and these sample differences contribute to differences in the Gini coefficients.

Appendix 2: Regional Ratings Distribution And Rating Actions

Regional ratings distribution

S&P Global Ratings segments most of the sovereigns it rates into six regional categories:

• Middle East and Africa (including North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa)
• Latin America (including the Caribbean)
• Asia-Pacific
• Eurozone
• Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)--the former Soviet republics

In this study, we also include a broad designation for the emerging markets region, consisting of 69 nations, which come from all of the categories except the eurozone. In last year's study, we included a narrow designation of 20 emerging markets sovereigns, and we've included the default and transition measures for this narrow group in Appendix 4. Fourteen rated sovereigns--including the U.S., the U.K., and Canada--are not designated in any of these categories.

Table 22

Sovereigns By Region
Middle East and Africa	Latin America	Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS*	Asia-Pacific	Eurozone	--Emerging markets--
Abu Dhabi	Argentina	Albania	Australia	Austria	Argentina	Georgia	Panama
Bahrain	Aruba	Azerbaijan	Bangladesh	Belgium	Aruba	Ghana	Papua New Guinea
Egypt	Bahamas	Belarus	China	Cyprus	Azerbaijan	Grenada	Paraguay
Iraq	Barbados	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Cook Islands	Estonia*	Bahamas	Guatemala	Peru
Jordan	Belize	Bulgaria	Fiji	Finland	Bahrain	Honduras	Philippines
Kuwait	Bermuda	Croatia	Hong Kong	France	Bangladesh	Hong Kong	Qatar
Lebanon	Bolivia	Czech Republic	India	Germany	Barbados	India	Russia
Morocco	Brazil	Estonia*	Indonesia	Greece	Belarus	Indonesia	Saudi Arabia
Oman	Chile	Georgia	Japan	Ireland	Belize	Israel	Singapore
Qatar	Colombia	Hungary	Korea	Italy	Bolivia	Jamaica	South Africa
Ras Al Khaimah	Costa Rica	Kazakhstan	Malaysia	Latvia*	Bosnia & Herzegovina	Jordan	Sri Lanka
Saudi Arabia	Curacao	Latvia*	Mongolia	Lithuania*	Brazil	Kazakhstan	Taiwan
Sharjah	Dominican Republic	Lithuania*	New Zealand	Luxembourg	Cambodia	Kenya	Thailand
Angola	Ecuador	Macedonia	Pakistan	Malta	Chile	Korea	Togo
Botswana	El Salvador	Montenegro	Papua New Guinea	Netherlands	China	Kuwait	Trinidad & Tobago
Burkina Faso	Guatemala	Poland	Philippines	Portugal	Colombia	Lebanon	Tunisia
Cameroon	Honduras	Romania	Singapore	Slovak Republic*	Costa Rica	Malaysia	Turkey
Cape Verde	Jamaica	Russia	Sri Lanka	Slovenia*	Curacao	Mexico	Turks and Caicos Islands
Congo	Mexico	Serbia	Taiwan	Spain	Dominican Republic	Mongolia	Ukraine
Congo, D.R.	Montserrat	Slovak Republic*	Thailand		Egypt	Morocco	Uruguay
Ethiopia	Nicaragua	Slovenia*	Vietnam		El Salvador	Nigeria	Uzbekistan
Ghana	Panama	Tajikistan			Fiji	Oman	Venezuela
Kenya	Paraguay	Turkey			Gabon	Pakistan	Vietnam
Mozambique	Peru	Ukraine
Nigeria	Suriname	Uzbekistan
Rwanda	Trinidad and Tobago
Senegal	Turks and Caicos
South Africa	Uruguay
Togo	Venezuela
Uganda
Zambia
*Included in two European regions. CIS--Commonwealth of Independent States, the alliance of 12 of the former republics of the Soviet Union. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Most new sovereign ratings since 1998 have come from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and these regions have added the most speculative-grade ratings to the pool of sovereign ratings over the past decade. The number of sovereign ratings in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS has also grown substantially on a percentage basis over the past 20 years, but the growth is notably smaller on an absolute basis. Asia-Pacific has added fewer ratings than those other regions, and its increase has not notably affected the overall quality of sovereign credit ratings. Meanwhile, the eurozone has retained its tally of 19 ratings since 1998.

With much of the growth in sovereign ratings coming from regions with higher concentrations of lower-rated issuers, the overall effect has been reduced credit quality for sovereign credit ratings generally, while the global coverage of rated countries has broadened.

Middle East and Africa.  At the end of 2019, there were 31 sovereign credit ratings in the Middle East and Africa, 23 of which were speculative grade. The number of ratings has increased since 1998 (when eight sovereigns in the region were rated), and the majority of rated sovereigns from this region have been speculative grade since 2003.

Latin America.  At the end of 2019, 16 of the 28 Latin American foreign currency sovereign credit ratings were speculative grade, up from 15 in 2018. The number of Latin American sovereign credit ratings has increased steadily since 1993, and the majority have been speculative grade in all but one year (2014).

Asia-Pacific.  At the end of 2019, there were 21 rated Asia-Pacific sovereigns, 38% of which were speculative grade. We've rated 18 of these 21 Asia-Pacific sovereigns since 1988, and most of these ratings are investment grade. All of the region's ratings were investment grade until 1991, and speculative-grade ratings have become more prevalent since 1999.

Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS.  At the end of 2019, there were 25 rated sovereigns from Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS, 48% of which were speculative grade. This marks the first time since 2009 that the proportion has dropped below 50%. The 'B' category accounts for the highest number of sovereigns in this region, with seven in 2019 and 2018. The 'BBB' rating category has the next-highest tally of sovereigns rated, with six. S&P Global Ratings assigned its first sovereign credit ratings in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS in 1993.

Eurozone.  Among our regional categories, the eurozone contains the fewest sovereign credit ratings, with 19, and this number has not changed since 1997. Eurozone ratings are also the highest, with the proportion that are speculative grade averaging just 6.2% since 1997. In addition, more sovereign credit ratings are in the 'AA' category or 'AAA' in the eurozone than in other regions, despite the smaller number of ratings.

Emerging markets.  At the end of 2019, there were 64 rated emerging markets sovereigns, 58% of which were speculative grade. The number of rated emerging markets sovereigns has risen by 20 since 1999, and the majority of this region's ratings have been speculative grade in each of those years, with the exception of 2014, when the speculative-grade share fell to 49%.

Regional rating movement

Middle East and Africa

Sovereign downgrades in the Middle East and Africa surpassed upgrades in 2019, with two downgrades and one upgrade. The pace of rating actions in this region has slowed, to three in 2019 from four in 2018, and down considerably from the 2015-2017 period, which saw eight or more rating actions annually, most of which were downgrades. Following the financial crisis, and after the collapse in oil prices that began in 2014, most of the rating actions in the Middle East and Africa were downgrades: There were 43 downgrades and just 12 upgrades from 2010-2019.

Latin America

For seven consecutive years, we've lowered more sovereign credit ratings in Latin America than we've raised. There were 43 downgrades and 15 upgrades from 2013-2019. The number of sovereign downgrades in Latin America recently peaked in 2017, at 10. In 2019, the number of downgrades fell to three, while upgrades rose to two.

Asia-Pacific

The Asia-Pacific region had four sovereign upgrades in 2019, the highest annual number since 2010. Just one Asia-Pacific sovereign (Pakistan) was downgraded in 2019, and this was the first time in three years that upgrades outnumbered downgrades in the region. The four Asia-Pacific sovereigns that were upgraded in 2019 were Fiji, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam. After the region emerged from the Asian financial crisis, sovereign downgrades in the region have outnumbered upgrades in just four of the past 19 years.

Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS

The Central and Eastern Europe and CIS region has experienced steadily rising upgrades since 2015. In 2019, the number of sovereign upgrades from this region rose to seven (from five in 2018), with no downgrades. These upgrades were on Bulgaria, Croatia, Georgia, Hungary, Serbia, Slovenia, and Ukraine.

Eurozone

Eurozone sovereign rating actions have been largely positive in recent years. From 2014-2019, eurozone upgrades totaled 30, while downgrades totaled just three. However, even with these positive rating actions over the past six years, the region's average credit quality remains lower than it was prior to the financial crisis in 2008 and the eurozone crisis that began in 2011.

Emerging markets

For the emerging markets region as a whole, which includes countries that are also included within each of the other regions, upgrades surpassed downgrades for the first time since 2011 in 2019, with eight upgrades and five downgrades.

Appendix 3: Methodology And Definitions

This study is based on long-term sovereign credit ratings. The methodology tracks rating migrations over time and includes revisions to 'SD' (selective default). An 'SD' rating is more common for sovereign issuers than a 'D' (default) rating because defaulting sovereigns often continue to service some of their debt. This study is based on issuer credit ratings as opposed to issue ratings. In other words, we look at the ratings on the central governments themselves, not the ratings on the individual securities these governments might have issued.

Our metrics treat all issuers equally and are not adjusted for size or influence. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, a default by Argentina counts the same as a default by Mali, even though the latter has a much smaller economy. Our study tracks defaults on a sovereign's commercial debt, including both bonds and bank loans.

Withdrawn ratings (as indicated with the abbreviation NR, which stands for "not rated") are included up until the date of withdrawal. We record defaults after the date of withdrawal if we obtain knowledge of those defaults. As of Dec. 31, 2019, S&P Global Ratings had withdrawn public ratings on 12 sovereigns: Benin, Cambodia, Gabon, Grenada, Guernsey, Isle of Man, Kyrgyz Republic, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Seychelles, and Tunisia. (We reinstated the ratings on Benin in July 2018 and Guernsey in October 2014.) There are 177 total rating records for sovereigns, including defaulted ratings.

S&P Global Ratings generally defines "default" as the failure to meet a principal or interest payment on the due date contained in the original terms of a debt issue (see "Methodology: Timeliness Of Payments: Grace Periods, Guarantees, And Use Of 'D' And 'SD' Ratings," Oct. 24, 2013). However, questions can arise when applying this definition to sovereign obligations. We consider a sovereign to be in default under any of the following circumstances:

• For local currency and foreign currency bonds, notes, and bills issued by the central government and held outside the public sector of the country, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or tenders an exchange offer of new debt with less favorable terms than the original issue.
• For private-sector bank loans incurred by the central government, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or negotiates with the bank creditors a rescheduling of principal or interest at less favorable terms than in the original loan.

Emergence from default also can be a complicated analytical issue for sovereigns. Sovereigns often undertake debt restructurings through exchange offers that, we find, rarely close the books on the restructured debt. For a number of reasons, from difficulty in contacting all debtholders to holdouts seeking payment in accordance with original terms, we have observed that participation in sovereign distressed debt exchanges usually does not reach 100%. This stands in contrast with debt restructurings in the U.S. and many other jurisdictions, where all obligations are typically addressed in bankruptcy reorganization. An entity reorganizing outside of bankruptcy generally must continue payments on the holdouts' debt or face the prospect of an involuntary bankruptcy filing.

Less common among sovereign defaults is the repudiation of debt, which most often follows a revolutionary change of regime (as occurred in Russia in 1917, China in 1949, and Cuba in 1960). S&P Global Ratings takes no position on the propriety of government debt defaults, repudiations, and the like. S&P Global Ratings also does not take a position on the course of negotiations (or the absence thereof) between creditors and the government to work out debt that is repudiated or the parameters of any settlements between creditors and governments that could occur. Instead, our ratings are opinions of the probability of default on a forward-looking basis. We analyze historical defaults to form our own view as to the extent that they could affect the likelihood of the sovereign defaulting in the future.

In general, S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings apply only to debt that the present government acknowledges as its own. If there is no resolution of a default through the courts or by the parties involved, S&P Global Ratings eventually withdraws the defaulted ratings based on the diminished prospects for resolution and the defaulted ratings' lack of relevance in the context of the market. For example, S&P Global Ratings has no ratings on direct and guaranteed debt of the government of China issued prior to the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 because S&P Global Ratings first rated China in 1992, long after the new government repudiated pre-1949 debt. The default is included in our sovereign default survey, which covers defaults by rated and unrated issuers.

The dataset includes sovereign credit ratings that were withdrawn following a default. In those cases, if the sovereign has been rated again, a new record would have been established, and the new rating would not be connected to the defaulted rating. This creates more than one record for defaulted sovereigns. Therefore, there are 177 foreign currency records for 145 sovereigns that we have rated.

Static pool methodology

S&P Global Ratings Research conducts its default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issuers by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. All issuers included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. When an issuer defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issuer belonged.

We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates, such as by ensuring that default rates account for rating migration and can be calculated across multiperiod time horizons. Some methods for calculating default and rating transition rates might charge defaults against only the initial rating on the issuer, ignoring more recent rating changes that supply more current information. Other methods may calculate default rates using only the most recent year's default and rating data, which may yield comparatively low default rates during periods of high rating activity because they ignore prior years' default activity.

The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of sovereigns in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results back to the same starting date of Dec. 31, 1975, so as to avoid continuity problems.

For instance, the 1976 static pool consists of all sovereigns rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1976. Adding those sovereigns first rated in 1976 to the surviving members of the 1976 static pool forms the 1977 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1977 static pool through the ratings on these entities as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1977. We used the same method to form static pools for 1978-2019.

Consider the following example for annual static pools: A sovereign is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1986 and is downgraded to 'B' in 1988. This is followed by a default in 1993. We would include this hypothetical issuer in the 1987 and 1988 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1989-1993 pools with the 'B' rating. Yet each of the seven pools in which this sovereign was included (1987-1993) would record its 1993 default at the appropriate time horizon.

Default rate calculations

Cumulative default rates average the experience of all static pools in a select period of time by calculating marginal weighted average default rates conditional on survival (survivors being nondefaulters) for each possible time horizon and accumulating marginal default rates. We calculate conditional-on-survival default rates by dividing the number of issuers in a static pool that default within a specific time horizon by the number of issuers that survived (did not default) up to that point in time. In the context of sovereign ratings, we treat the defaults of governments that selectively default as complete defaults. We base weights on the number of issuers in each static pool and base these calculations on monthly start dates for 12-month increments.

Transition analysis

Transition rates compare issuer credit ratings at the beginning of a period with ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. An issuer that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated.

For instance, an issuer continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If the rating on the issuer was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.

All 1975 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2020, had 45 one-year transitions, while sovereigns first rated on Jan. 1, 2019, had only one. Table 1 displays the summary of one-year transitions in the investment-grade and speculative-grade rating categories. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to 'SD', plus an entry for NR.

The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if an entity was rated 'A' on Jan. 1, 2015, and was downgraded to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this entity would be included only in the percentage of issuers that began the year at 'A' that ended the year at 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issuer defaults, we consider the rating as of Dec. 31 of that particular year to be 'D'. Similarly, if we withdraw our rating on an issuer, the methodology considers the issuer as of Dec. 31 of that year to be not rated.

Multiyear transitions

Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two to 15 years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1975-2017 with the ratings at the end of the years 1977-2019. Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions.

We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issuer-weighted averages.

For inclusion in the matrix, the issuer must be in at least one year. In the case of the three-year matrix, we must have rated the sovereign by Jan. 1, 2017; in the case of the 15-year matrix, we must have rated it by Jan. 1, 2005. Thus, there are progressively fewer observations the longer the transition period is, given the growth of sovereign ratings and, of course, given that there will be fewer static pools for each added set of 12 monthly cohorts in the matrix.

Rating modifiers

Our calculations of the upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, consider the specific rating as opposed to the rating category (for example, 'A-', 'A', and 'A+' rather than the 'A' rating category). However, for practical reasons, some transition tables may use rating categories. Doing so means that actions such as a downgrade to 'AA-' from 'AA' or an upgrade to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-' are not considered to be transitions because the ratings remained within the same rating category.

Appendix 4: Additional Exhibits

Table 23

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20
A	0.00	0.02	0.50	1.05	1.62	2.22	2.85	3.50	4.19	4.93	5.73	6.61	7.21	7.83	8.78
BBB	0.00	0.51	1.05	1.57	2.13	2.73	3.27	3.63	4.02	4.44	4.89	5.38	6.29	7.32	7.93
BB	0.47	1.51	2.33	3.01	4.25	5.56	6.97	8.48	9.84	10.96	12.02	13.15	14.05	14.79	15.35
B	2.71	5.76	8.84	11.91	14.34	16.60	18.76	20.76	22.26	23.47	24.50	25.52	26.49	27.36	28.18
CCC/CC	33.69	43.91	49.46	51.47	54.23	59.37	64.03	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 24

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1993-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.65	1.25	1.92	2.64	3.42
A	0.00	0.02	0.48	1.01	1.57	2.15	2.77	3.42	4.11	5.09	5.91	6.80	7.80	8.95	10.25
BBB	0.00	0.46	0.80	1.11	1.45	1.81	2.57	3.07	3.55	3.63	3.63	3.63	3.63	3.63	3.63
BB	0.68	1.40	1.84	2.25	2.90	3.60	4.20	5.02	5.78	6.29	6.86	7.51	8.27	9.16	10.21
B	1.65	2.91	4.18	5.12	5.87	6.73	7.63	8.59	9.63	10.70	11.42	12.14	12.99	14.02	14.21
CCC/CC	11.63	15.65	18.98	22.81	30.53	39.99	44.46	47.72	47.72	47.72	47.72	47.72	47.72	47.72	47.72
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 25

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.65	2.82	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	6.72	83.21	6.88	1.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.34
AA	0.00	6.15	85.14	6.66	0.57	0.46	0.11	0.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	9.24	81.03	7.76	0.21	0.63	0.21	0.00	0.21	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.09	14.24	72.14	8.85	2.52	1.13	0.17	0.78	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.24	11.50	78.39	5.54	1.35	0.83	1.04	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	11.74	77.02	6.64	0.44	1.66	0.72	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.63	15.07	70.08	9.07	1.98	0.73	0.29	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.11	18.34	66.60	10.53	0.99	0.12	0.00	0.56	0.25	0.12	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.04	15.97	73.73	6.10	2.38	0.30	0.09	0.17	0.13	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.56	21.23	65.98	9.87	0.87	0.19	0.06	0.00	0.19	0.37	0.00	0.50	0.19	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.82	14.45	71.52	10.45	1.64	0.72	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.10	0.10
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.14	10.79	72.67	11.61	1.33	0.50	0.18	0.14	0.18	0.18	1.01	0.27
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.04	1.04	10.88	67.14	16.00	2.82	0.39	0.23	0.15	0.19	0.73	0.35
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.69	14.61	69.31	7.94	1.63	0.94	0.24	0.04	2.08	2.52
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.86	17.18	66.38	4.13	1.00	0.80	0.40	7.12	0.13
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.42	4.56	35.36	27.76	5.70	0.38	0.00	22.81	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.94	19.61	0.00	21.57	7.84	6.86	41.18	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.70	0.00	0.00	5.41	10.81	81.08	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 26

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.36	8.55	2.93	1.62	0.00	0.10	0.05	0.66	0.00	0.24	0.00	0.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66
AA+	26.96	43.31	21.06	5.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.69	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.70
AA	7.55	16.23	43.68	17.22	6.42	3.25	3.95	0.85	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.64	9.39	24.98	29.63	16.77	4.65	6.20	1.00	1.64	2.92	0.00	2.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	2.75	11.21	31.46	17.05	11.78	2.06	3.09	6.41	7.44	1.26	1.72	0.00	0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.00	0.00	3.32	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	1.96	13.01	23.33	31.41	8.24	5.78	4.82	6.06	1.35	1.57	0.11	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.17	0.11	0.00	0.39	1.51	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.65	5.92	25.26	34.21	14.66	6.88	3.58	1.65	1.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.03	1.58
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	7.75	7.65	20.80	28.03	15.60	13.35	3.87	1.22	0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.71	0.10
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.01	9.11	15.60	17.06	17.20	10.42	9.48	5.69	2.77	1.82	2.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.41	1.97
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.28	5.01	9.19	16.29	19.59	26.53	10.13	5.72	0.61	0.00	1.05	0.61	0.77	0.11	0.00	0.06	3.30	0.77
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.74	3.94	2.23	16.29	24.85	16.15	18.38	9.23	1.79	0.74	2.38	1.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.01	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.96	1.74	4.86	12.95	17.21	31.12	17.09	8.81	0.72	0.48	0.00	0.00	0.72	0.12	2.70	0.54
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.91	1.20	4.57	8.06	21.89	20.51	12.91	8.57	8.23	0.29	1.03	0.00	0.17	8.74	2.91
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.40	0.60	3.21	1.35	2.71	12.98	30.03	25.71	10.08	1.00	0.65	0.20	0.75	8.97	1.25
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.16	0.16	1.48	0.49	2.41	12.90	16.84	27.17	11.21	1.04	0.16	0.33	0.11	14.05	11.48
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.62	1.45	1.24	2.38	9.22	15.96	23.11	17.82	3.73	0.21	0.21	0.10	23.73	0.21
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02	1.02	0.00	4.08	6.12	10.71	12.76	4.59	10.20	2.04	0.00	47.45	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.76	1.52	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	72.73	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 27

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	68.14	15.64	7.63	4.77	1.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.10	0.50	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.41
AA+	40.81	18.79	17.05	12.09	3.48	0.75	1.99	3.48	1.41	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	33.25	11.16	4.63	10.81	12.35	1.19	0.24	5.82	6.29	8.19	2.85	2.49	0.00	0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	24.56	12.53	2.76	10.03	17.79	8.02	3.76	0.75	6.02	2.51	1.75	6.27	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.75	0.75	0.00	0.00	1.25	0.00
A+	10.00	6.09	7.17	8.04	6.74	21.74	15.43	5.65	1.30	11.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.52	0.00
A	6.26	3.86	13.72	10.92	8.12	7.72	25.03	8.52	0.13	3.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.98	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	4.68	29.46	19.94	3.93	6.95	9.82	1.96	4.38	3.32	0.00	0.76	3.93	3.17	0.91	2.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.53	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	7.03	23.32	12.46	20.45	16.93	12.46	1.92	0.00	2.88	0.96	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.60	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	10.16	10.48	15.40	7.78	14.76	6.03	1.11	3.49	2.54	9.21	3.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.67	9.21
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.41	13.53	17.46	12.71	4.24	9.30	9.19	8.06	1.03	0.10	1.55	4.86	0.62	0.10	0.00	0.72	11.57	1.55
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.62	9.47	0.00	13.46	20.12	26.48	2.66	0.74	1.18	3.25	3.25	2.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.39	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.25	9.99	15.73	29.21	0.50	8.74	10.74	6.62	4.12	1.12	0.87	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.35	0.00	0.00	10.92	4.71	1.68	7.23	10.59	22.35	2.86	3.53	3.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.08	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.00	2.80	2.14	7.24	7.40	11.18	4.93	19.24	3.45	3.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.83	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.99	6.19	7.58	3.59	1.20	14.37	16.17	8.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	36.73	1.60
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.13	9.52	5.08	8.89	10.79	12.70	14.92	16.83	0.00	0.63	0.00	0.00	16.51	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.99	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	91.01	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	92.86	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 28

Sovereign Local Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1993-2019)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	95.85	2.87	1.15	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	5.31	79.81	9.12	3.19	0.18	0.00	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.13
AA	0.00	2.83	85.29	8.62	0.68	0.68	0.86	1.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	5.61	80.53	11.30	0.28	0.85	1.21	0.00	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.77	7.49	76.07	11.32	2.62	1.02	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.13	0.00	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.69	10.58	73.74	11.21	2.69	0.80	0.17	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.38	14.43	71.31	9.85	1.20	1.36	0.65	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.06	11.33	71.07	10.62	3.23	1.35	0.65	0.18	0.00	0.23	0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.33	12.50	69.42	14.00	1.42	0.83	0.25	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.59	12.25	70.67	10.41	2.98	0.70	0.70	0.19	0.19	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.08	14.26	68.43	11.14	3.44	0.00	0.57	0.00	0.13	0.25	0.00	0.45	0.19	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66	15.61	62.37	14.22	2.22	1.73	1.07	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.48	0.16
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.27	8.21	71.89	12.72	2.78	0.81	0.40	0.69	0.00	0.29	0.58	0.35
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	1.41	10.92	67.04	16.26	2.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.58	0.44
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	1.34	12.11	71.15	9.04	1.65	0.22	0.00	0.00	1.02	3.29
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.84	3.03	16.54	68.61	5.28	1.06	0.14	0.42	3.94	0.14
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.39	6.30	42.91	37.80	7.09	0.00	0.79	4.72	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.75	36.70	1.83	24.77	11.01	1.83	21.10	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	0.00	0.00	90.00	0.00	5.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	32.43	16.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.81	40.54	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1993 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 29

Sovereign Local Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1993-2019)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	65.80	15.82	7.28	2.57	2.71	0.39	0.46	1.68	0.00	0.61	0.00	0.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.11
AA+	0.21	5.75	16.43	7.60	12.73	13.96	7.80	14.58	5.75	10.68	1.44	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.62	0.62	0.00	0.00	1.03	0.00
AA	2.86	5.71	16.61	13.04	16.61	3.93	10.00	0.36	9.46	11.07	4.29	3.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.32	0.00
AA-	7.74	6.38	10.93	10.48	25.06	0.68	5.24	7.06	4.78	0.00	0.00	1.59	0.00	0.00	4.78	1.37	1.37	2.05	0.00	0.46	10.02	0.00
A+	8.82	5.44	28.89	6.75	1.88	7.69	18.39	6.19	0.00	2.63	4.88	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.44	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	2.03	9.11	2.28	16.71	8.35	3.54	4.56	3.80	7.34	6.08	2.78	6.33	1.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.59	18.48
A-	0.00	0.00	2.09	13.90	5.83	17.04	21.97	7.47	1.64	3.89	8.07	2.24	0.00	0.15	1.49	5.38	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.92	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	3.55	1.50	4.51	20.90	14.62	3.83	12.16	13.25	6.83	10.11	5.46	1.78	0.00	1.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.89	3.18	13.07	16.61	43.46	5.30	2.83	0.00	6.36	1.06	4.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.57	0.00	0.00	7.65	3.97	4.25	16.15	7.65	5.10	23.51	5.38	4.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.96	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.50	4.80	13.76	16.38	3.06	18.34	11.79	4.80	0.44	3.93	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.21	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.57	6.60	11.64	4.40	5.03	19.18	16.35	10.06	6.60	10.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.26	6.60	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.72	10.11	2.53	5.42	7.22	14.80	9.39	8.30	7.94	13.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.22	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.28	13.52	3.69	1.23	4.92	31.15	19.26	11.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.48	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.93	12.75	3.77	2.03	2.61	17.97	19.13	23.48	0.00	0.00	1.45	0.00	9.57	2.32
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.37	11.98	29.03	3.69	7.83	12.90	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.92	5.99	0.00	5.99	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	90.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	31.25	3.13	0.00	53.13	6.25	0.00	3.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.13	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	78.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1993 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 30

Foreign Currency 'A' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2019)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Date	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
01/01/1992	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/1993	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/1994	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/1995	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/1996	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/1997	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/1998	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/1999	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11
01/01/2000	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	18.18	18.18
01/01/2001	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	16.67	16.67	16.67
01/01/2002	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
01/01/2003	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.88	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76
01/01/2004	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	15.00
01/01/2005	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
01/01/2006	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
01/01/2007	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
01/01/2008	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00
01/01/2009	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00
01/01/2010	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76
01/01/2011	21	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76
01/01/2012	15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/2013	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/2014	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/2015	15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/2016	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/2017	16	0.00	0.00	0.00
01/01/2018	17	0.00	0.00
01/01/2019	18	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		0.00	0.02	0.50	1.05	1.62	2.22	2.85	3.50	4.19	4.93	5.73	6.61	7.21	7.83	8.78
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 23. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 31

Foreign Currency 'BBB' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2019)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Date	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1992	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1993	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67
1/1/1994	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/1995	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/1996	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1997	9	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11
1/1/1998	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	12.50
1/1/1999	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	12.50	12.50
1/1/2000	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2001	16	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2002	16	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2003	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2004	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2005	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69
1/1/2006	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69
1/1/2007	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69
1/1/2008	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14
1/1/2009	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.88	5.88
1/1/2010	18	0.00	0.00	5.56	5.56	5.56	5.56	5.56	5.56	11.11	11.11
1/1/2011	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26
1/1/2012	24	0.00	4.17	4.17	4.17	4.17	4.17	8.33	8.33
1/1/2013	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2014	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2015	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2016	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2017	22	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	24	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	24	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		0.00	0.51	1.05	1.57	2.13	2.73	3.27	3.63	4.02	4.44	4.89	5.38	6.29	7.32	7.93
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 23. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 32

Foreign Currency 'BB' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2019)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Date	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1992	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1993	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1994	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33
1/1/1995	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1996	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00
1/1/1997	13	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	15.38	15.38	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77
1/1/1998	18	0.00	11.11	11.11	16.67	16.67	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22
1/1/1999	18	0.00	0.00	5.56	5.56	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11
1/1/2000	15	0.00	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67
1/1/2001	14	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/2002	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/2003	17	0.00	5.88	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	17.65
1/1/2004	17	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	11.76	11.76
1/1/2005	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	5.26
1/1/2006	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	10.53	10.53	10.53
1/1/2007	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	13.64	13.64	13.64
1/1/2008	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	13.04
1/1/2009	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2010	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2011	23	0.00	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	13.04
1/1/2012	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	4.55
1/1/2013	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.85	7.69	7.69
1/1/2014	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	8.33	8.33
1/1/2015	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2016	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2017	22	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	20	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	17	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		0.47	1.51	2.33	3.01	4.25	5.56	6.97	8.48	9.84	10.96	12.02	13.15	14.05	14.79	15.35
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 23. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 33

Foreign Currency 'B' Static Pools And Default Rates (1995-2019)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Date	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1995	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1996	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00
1/1/1997	4	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1998	5	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00
1/1/1999	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2000	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2001	19	0.00	5.26	10.53	10.53	21.05	21.05	21.05	26.32	26.32	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58
1/1/2002	15	0.00	6.67	6.67	13.33	13.33	13.33	13.33	13.33	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	26.67	26.67
1/1/2003	16	12.50	12.50	12.50	18.75	18.75	18.75	18.75	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	31.25	31.25	31.25
1/1/2004	19	0.00	5.26	10.53	10.53	10.53	10.53	15.79	15.79	15.79	15.79	15.79	21.05	21.05	21.05	21.05
1/1/2005	21	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	14.29	14.29	19.05	19.05	19.05	23.81	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2006	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	17.39	17.39	21.74	26.09	26.09	26.09
1/1/2007	25	0.00	4.00	4.00	8.00	8.00	16.00	16.00	20.00	20.00	24.00	24.00	24.00	24.00
1/1/2008	28	7.14	7.14	10.71	10.71	21.43	21.43	25.00	25.00	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2009	28	0.00	3.57	3.57	10.71	10.71	14.29	17.86	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43
1/1/2010	27	0.00	0.00	7.41	7.41	11.11	11.11	14.81	14.81	14.81	14.81
1/1/2011	32	0.00	6.25	9.38	12.50	15.63	18.75	18.75	18.75	18.75
1/1/2012	33	6.06	9.09	12.12	15.15	18.18	21.21	21.21	21.21
1/1/2013	30	3.33	6.67	10.00	13.33	16.67	16.67	16.67
1/1/2014	32	0.00	3.13	9.38	15.63	15.63	15.63
1/1/2015	34	0.00	5.88	11.76	14.71	14.71
1/1/2016	37	5.41	10.81	13.51	13.51
1/1/2017	37	5.41	8.11	10.81
1/1/2018	36	0.00	2.78
1/1/2019	41	2.44
Cumulative default rate*		2.71	5.76	8.84	11.91	14.34	16.60	18.76	20.76	22.26	23.47	24.50	25.52	26.49	27.36	28.18
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 23. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 34

Foreign Currency 'CCC'/'CC' Static Pools And Default Rates (1999-2019)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Date	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1999	3	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2000	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2001	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1/1/2002	2	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2003	3	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2004	2	0.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2005	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2006	3	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2007	1	0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2008	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1/1/2009	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2010	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2011	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1/1/2012	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2013	2	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2014	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2015	2	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2016	2	0.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2017	3	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2018	4	25.00	25.00
1/1/2019	1	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		33.69	43.91	49.46	51.47	54.23	59.37	64.03	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10	66.10
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 23. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 35

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.23
A+	0.00	0.00	0.50	1.77	3.11	3.34	3.34	4.47	5.50	5.50	5.50	5.50	5.50	6.69	8.11
A	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.81	1.47	2.73	4.15	5.07	6.12	7.81	9.58	10.62	11.81	12.47	12.47
A-	0.00	0.06	0.83	0.89	0.89	0.89	0.89	0.89	0.89	0.89	0.99	2.21	2.53	2.78	4.45
BBB+	0.00	0.39	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55	2.30	4.15	6.19	8.58	10.87	10.87
BBB	0.00	0.64	1.43	2.17	2.17	2.17	2.17	2.56	3.78	3.78	3.78	3.78	4.99	5.40	5.40
BBB-	0.00	0.49	1.06	1.71	2.99	4.37	5.60	6.11	6.11	6.11	6.11	6.11	6.11	7.02	8.27
BB+	0.19	1.38	1.38	1.38	1.75	2.65	3.59	4.64	6.68	8.02	9.17	10.45	11.87	13.41	15.07
BB	0.10	0.73	1.37	2.05	2.46	3.08	3.91	4.66	4.66	4.66	4.84	5.96	7.16	7.80	7.80
BB-	0.99	2.32	3.91	5.13	7.83	10.12	12.57	15.39	17.64	19.80	21.77	22.76	22.76	22.76	22.76
B+	0.72	2.47	4.44	7.08	9.24	11.83	15.03	18.34	19.21	20.18	21.47	22.01	22.37	23.34	25.53
B	2.28	5.55	9.35	12.56	15.37	17.37	18.77	20.07	22.20	24.32	25.73	27.96	30.30	31.75	31.75
B-	6.75	11.69	15.58	19.30	21.63	23.71	25.05	25.58	27.24	27.38	27.38	27.38	27.38	27.38	27.38
CCC+	18.00	21.94	27.79	31.10	35.66	44.14	51.92	55.41	55.41	55.41	55.41	55.41	55.41	55.41	55.41
CCC	37.47	66.95	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99	74.99
CCC-	80.95	95.24	95.24	95.24	95.24	95.24	95.24	95.24	95.24	95.24	95.24	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
CC	100.00	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
Investment grade	0.00	0.13	0.36	0.60	0.85	1.12	1.37	1.59	1.82	2.06	2.32	2.60	2.89	3.20	3.53
Speculative grade	2.96	5.39	7.52	9.43	11.32	13.25	15.16	16.92	18.28	19.38	20.37	21.39	22.26	23.01	23.64
All rated	1.10	2.07	2.99	3.83	4.65	5.49	6.31	7.04	7.64	8.15	8.63	9.12	9.58	10.00	10.41
Default rates conditional on survival. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. N.A.--Not available (no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 36  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.18	0.22
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.19	0.37	0.56	0.81	0.93	1.06	1.12
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.15	0.20	0.26	0.31	0.36	0.41
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.09	0.13	0.18	0.27	0.40	0.58	0.81	0.99	1.09	1.18	1.27	1.36	1.46	1.55
B+	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.07	0.19	0.30	0.38	0.49	0.61	0.72	0.84	0.96	1.07	1.19	1.35	1.51
B	0.11	0.23	0.34	0.50	0.73	0.96	1.20	1.44	1.68	1.88	2.08	2.28	2.57	2.85	3.10	3.35	3.61	3.86
B-	0.36	0.97	1.52	2.08	2.58	3.14	3.77	4.34	4.99	5.50	6.09	6.75	7.21	7.61	8.08	8.62	9.10	9.58
CCC+	1.17	2.64	4.41	6.50	8.59	10.40	11.91	13.42	14.94	16.46	17.38	18.00	18.61	18.92	19.24	19.24	19.24	19.24
CCC	4.42	8.89	13.36	16.93	22.29	25.86	28.54	31.22	32.11	33.90	35.69	37.47	40.15	43.73	46.41	49.09	51.77	54.45
CCC-	14.29	26.19	38.10	47.62	52.38	59.52	64.29	69.05	73.81	76.19	78.57	80.95	83.33	85.71	88.10	90.48	92.86	95.24
CC	25.58	41.86	55.81	69.77	79.07	83.72	88.37	90.70	93.02	95.35	97.67	100.00	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
Investment grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03
Speculative grade	0.26	0.52	0.78	1.04	1.30	1.54	1.79	2.02	2.26	2.49	2.73	2.96	3.19	3.41	3.63	3.83	4.04	4.24
All rated	0.10	0.19	0.29	0.39	0.48	0.57	0.66	0.75	0.84	0.93	1.01	1.10	1.18	1.26	1.34	1.42	1.51	1.59
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. N.A.--Not available (no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 37

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1993-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.96	2.14
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.27	1.96	3.87	6.01	7.15	7.15
A+	0.00	0.00	0.35	1.22	2.13	2.28	2.28	2.98	4.10	4.96	4.96	4.96	4.96	4.96	7.06
A	0.00	0.00	0.24	0.92	1.70	3.22	4.99	6.16	7.03	8.19	9.34	9.34	9.34	9.34	9.34
A-	0.00	0.06	0.84	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	1.87	3.22	5.82	8.52	11.39	12.85
BBB+	0.00	0.30	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.59	1.65	1.84	1.84	1.84	1.84	1.84	1.84
BBB	0.00	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26
BBB-	0.00	0.79	1.65	2.60	3.67	4.85	7.36	8.79	8.79	8.79	8.79	8.79	8.79	8.79	8.79
BB+	0.19	1.16	1.16	1.16	1.39	2.32	2.40	2.49	3.59	4.82	6.22	7.80	9.58	11.61	13.91
BB	1.46	1.87	1.87	1.87	1.87	1.87	2.88	4.20	4.20	4.20	4.20	4.20	4.20	4.20	4.20
BB-	0.57	1.29	2.45	3.56	5.12	6.11	6.98	8.33	9.34	9.34	9.34	9.34	9.34	9.34	9.34
B+	0.57	1.68	1.89	1.89	1.89	1.96	2.41	2.41	2.86	4.38	4.66	6.83	9.07	9.07	9.07
B	1.27	1.98	3.39	4.47	5.60	7.09	8.12	10.07	11.68	11.68	11.95	11.95	12.30	13.24	13.24
B-	3.75	6.14	8.87	11.15	12.54	13.62	15.22	15.93	16.87	19.27	21.44	21.44	21.44	23.57	24.22
CCC+	4.57	7.02	12.44	18.34	29.87	44.06	51.09	56.58	56.58	56.58	56.58	56.58	56.58	56.58	56.58
CCC	21.07	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25	30.25
CCC-	2.86	2.86	2.86	2.86	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
CC	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54	40.54
Investment grade	0.00	0.11	0.31	0.52	0.74	0.98	1.30	1.58	1.86	2.16	2.48	2.84	3.22	3.65	4.11
Speculative grade	1.63	2.77	3.76	4.57	5.55	6.66	7.56	8.55	9.40	10.15	10.76	11.42	12.18	13.08	13.70
All rated	0.59	1.06	1.53	1.95	2.42	2.94	3.44	3.94	4.39	4.82	5.22	5.65	6.13	6.66	7.15
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available (no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 38

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.11	6.48	1.45	0.79	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.46
AA+	19.66	57.92	14.89	4.89	0.00	0.18	0.00	0.53	0.00	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.59
AA	0.88	16.17	60.64	15.54	1.83	1.26	1.26	0.88	0.32	0.82	0.00	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	3.02	21.90	48.57	15.16	2.94	3.73	0.24	1.19	2.62	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	6.20	28.25	36.08	14.23	2.44	2.34	3.15	3.05	1.02	1.73	0.00	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.30	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.51	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.29	24.83	45.58	8.04	5.47	3.65	3.32	0.91	0.16	0.11	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.32	0.21	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61	4.04	24.24	49.94	12.30	2.69	1.65	0.37	1.84	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.86	1.41
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.26	8.40	22.28	38.13	16.37	9.17	0.86	0.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60	0.09
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.53	4.27	13.28	18.89	34.11	13.35	8.08	2.14	1.20	1.40	0.33	0.07	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.47	0.20
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.16	3.68	11.17	24.03	39.31	9.67	6.43	1.11	0.58	0.73	0.19	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.05	1.11	0.68
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.81	2.29	7.00	33.38	30.55	17.56	3.30	0.94	1.62	0.67	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.48	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.55	2.04	9.63	19.75	39.16	19.14	6.16	0.88	0.72	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.43	0.50
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.19	4.19	20.49	37.10	15.33	6.95	4.34	1.12	0.10	0.31	0.26	4.19	1.43
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.69	1.55	3.66	13.43	39.20	25.39	7.92	0.65	1.38	0.60	0.77	4.17	0.52
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.47	9.09	18.93	38.85	12.59	1.42	0.38	0.33	0.00	8.52	8.52
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.48	1.13	3.87	7.83	29.30	34.95	3.63	0.73	0.16	0.32	17.43	0.16
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.98	0.98	11.71	15.61	15.12	13.66	4.88	1.46	0.00	35.61	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.89	1.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	81.05	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	96.97	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 39

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2019)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	73.27	12.57	6.44	2.71	0.85	0.11	0.30	1.15	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.53	0.00	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.33
AA+	35.78	24.61	24.98	10.14	0.22	0.73	0.73	0.88	0.51	1.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	22.33	23.71	12.13	9.10	17.74	1.47	1.29	2.11	2.30	3.49	0.00	4.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	14.22	10.10	8.25	28.31	3.70	10.95	10.10	1.56	2.84	6.12	3.41	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	7.67	1.88	20.26	1.30	12.45	9.99	14.76	1.30	10.13	14.33	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.50	0.00
A	0.14	2.03	11.51	19.55	15.06	8.98	16.58	7.68	1.59	0.29	0.94	2.61	1.01	1.81	0.22	0.00	0.22	0.29	0.00	0.51	8.98	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	1.30	12.97	16.03	12.51	17.15	5.93	8.62	11.58	8.25	2.87	0.83	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02	0.93
BBB+	0.00	0.00	2.10	3.00	1.80	15.74	24.74	17.84	2.85	12.89	6.30	3.90	0.60	0.00	3.15	0.90	2.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.95	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.92	8.92	3.43	13.96	13.04	9.27	8.92	11.10	6.41	8.01	0.69	0.34	0.80	1.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.23	8.35
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.62	19.50	9.14	15.29	13.83	16.34	9.14	5.34	1.78	0.40	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.36	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.26	3.36	8.12	8.96	5.88	19.22	7.56	9.89	12.97	5.22	2.71	5.88	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.44	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42	0.00	7.22	16.20	18.30	6.88	14.53	15.95	11.00	2.52	0.92	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.46	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.37	2.56	12.97	9.68	5.21	16.80	8.22	5.94	5.75	5.84	0.64	1.55	0.37	0.37	21.37	2.37
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	5.67	4.82	3.30	2.96	9.31	20.73	17.68	7.19	0.00	0.93	0.34	0.08	21.24	5.58
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.44	0.97	2.38	3.97	15.52	17.11	13.49	5.82	0.09	1.15	0.00	0.09	26.90	9.08
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	2.17	6.84	22.37	14.69	5.51	4.67	17.70	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	24.54	0.33
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.01	13.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	79.19	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	60.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1975 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 40

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings One-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2019)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	71.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	71.43	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	85.71	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	83.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	77.78	5.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.56	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	72.73	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 41

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings Three-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2017-2019)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	91.67	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	87.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	71.43	28.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	33.33	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	50.00	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	12.50	62.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.00	50.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	16.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00	14.29	42.86	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	22.22	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	45.45	27.27	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	50.00	25.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	0.00	42.86	7.14	7.14	7.14	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 42

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings 10-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2010-2019)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	61.11	16.67	11.11	5.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.56
AA+	0.00	25.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	20.00	40.00	40.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	25.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	11.11	22.22	0.00	11.11	22.22	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	14.29	28.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	14.29	42.86	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	42.86	14.29	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	25.00	37.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	25.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	72.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	18.18	18.18	27.27	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 43  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings Original-To-Last Transition Matrix
(%)
From/to	Total	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD
AAA	20	50.00	15.00	15.00	5.00	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00
AA+	3	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	5	20.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00
A+	3	0.00	33.33	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	9	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	0.00	22.22	33.33	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	37.50	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BBB+	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BBB-	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00
BB+	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
BB	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
BB-	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	0.00	0.00	6.25	0.00	12.50	0.00	6.25	25.00	0.00	6.25	0.00	0.00	6.25	0.00	0.00	25.00
B+	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	4.55	22.73	31.82	9.09	4.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.64
B	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	5.56	27.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33
B-	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	0.00	4.55	4.55	4.55	9.09	22.73	4.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.91
CCC+	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00	33.33	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.22
CCC	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CCC-	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CC	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00
Original-to-last transition rates compare the issuer credit ratings from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 44

Sovereign Local Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1993-2019)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	87.36	7.69	3.40	0.67	0.00	0.06	0.04	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.57
AA+	15.14	49.75	11.70	14.65	0.29	1.57	1.38	2.26	0.00	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.65
AA	0.97	4.70	67.84	16.94	2.01	1.73	2.49	1.18	1.24	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.95	15.07	46.31	23.63	4.84	5.63	2.14	0.32	1.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	2.55	19.32	42.39	19.96	7.64	2.19	2.05	0.07	0.50	1.20	0.00	0.00	0.14	1.20	0.21	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.43	19.15	43.28	15.62	10.52	5.41	1.52	1.03	0.18	0.12	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.36	0.24	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.62	8.82	25.16	37.52	13.54	3.79	3.85	0.37	3.17	0.37	0.00	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.87	1.49
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.71	5.55	19.74	37.70	12.93	10.47	6.37	1.26	0.63	0.00	0.76	1.01	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.13	0.44	0.19
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.56	5.99	18.07	38.67	18.63	12.73	2.43	1.12	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.28	1.31
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.34	1.49	5.23	16.13	41.52	14.56	6.42	5.30	1.34	3.51	0.82	0.45	0.00	0.00	0.07	1.79	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.12	3.64	8.06	16.89	41.07	17.94	7.50	0.14	1.68	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.26	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.45	3.26	8.42	20.38	19.11	21.74	9.33	2.08	9.78	1.54	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.08	0.82
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.99	3.24	2.38	12.05	39.44	19.39	10.13	4.63	1.32	1.32	0.00	0.60	2.65	1.85
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.45	1.56	2.90	14.59	42.71	25.56	6.68	0.84	0.89	0.00	0.17	1.39	1.95
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.32	1.31	2.58	9.10	15.72	42.11	13.67	2.42	0.74	0.00	0.11	3.05	8.89
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.45	0.63	3.94	2.86	5.37	27.64	42.75	4.83	0.81	0.18	0.36	10.02	0.18
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.30	0.92	0.92	8.76	27.65	28.11	12.90	4.61	2.76	0.00	11.06	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.13	0.00	5.32	2.13	23.40	17.02	0.00	0.00	24.47	0.00	25.53	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	32.14	32.14	7.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1993 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 45

Sovereign Local Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifiers (1993-2019)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	73.53	13.08	4.69	2.98	1.60	0.15	0.40	1.53	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.78
AA+	6.47	14.10	24.21	9.45	10.78	10.78	1.66	6.63	4.48	11.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	4.23	4.90	30.40	11.69	22.72	5.68	6.12	2.67	2.78	4.23	0.00	4.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	8.76	0.13	8.36	32.35	12.13	5.93	11.46	2.70	2.29	7.95	5.93	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.27	0.00	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.27	0.00
A+	0.18	2.52	19.46	15.23	9.28	12.16	13.69	7.03	6.67	2.97	4.95	0.18	0.81	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.86	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	5.01	6.98	8.75	17.90	18.09	4.52	4.72	3.64	0.79	7.18	1.97	2.46	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.69	10.42	6.29
A-	0.00	0.00	1.39	5.57	4.27	22.27	20.78	9.94	5.27	10.14	10.04	1.59	0.40	0.00	2.09	0.60	0.60	0.89	0.00	0.20	2.09	1.89
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.80	3.48	18.71	14.43	4.98	3.08	10.55	10.05	18.51	7.96	4.78	1.59	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.80	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.80	0.00	18.26	11.77	40.61	2.56	1.37	9.22	6.14	2.90	0.85	0.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.49	3.28	7.06	19.21	25.94	1.81	2.96	7.55	0.00	6.57	12.15	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.15	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66	5.18	13.01	11.25	10.80	16.32	12.02	14.77	7.61	2.54	3.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.76	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.72	2.86	4.86	13.88	3.86	13.73	0.43	15.31	10.59	13.88	12.59	3.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.15	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.00	10.48	0.33	2.16	3.99	7.32	26.96	14.64	9.15	0.50	2.83	4.99	0.00	9.32	4.33
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.97	3.72	1.52	4.28	0.00	9.38	29.66	14.21	18.62	0.69	1.10	0.00	0.00	3.59	12.28
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66	3.94	4.49	1.53	4.49	21.88	11.60	12.58	13.57	0.66	0.77	0.00	0.11	13.68	10.07
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.32	0.84	7.17	12.24	23.42	5.70	0.63	9.92	18.14	1.69	0.21	0.00	0.00	17.30	0.42
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.48	32.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.48	58.68	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.00	0.00	3.33	0.00	1.67	26.67	3.33	28.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	21.67	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.53	0.00	0.00	5.26	78.95	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00
Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1993 and 2019 annualized. SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 46

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings One-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2019)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	75.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	75.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	71.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	81.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	77.78	5.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.56	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	76.92	7.69	7.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 47

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings Three-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2017-2019)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	91.67	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	77.78	22.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	80.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	40.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.00	50.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	40.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	50.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	0.00	28.57	14.29	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	20.00	40.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	22.22	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	45.45	27.27	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	50.00	25.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.67	0.00	40.00	20.00	6.67	6.67	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 48

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings 10-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2010-2019)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	57.89	21.05	10.53	5.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26
AA+	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	16.67	50.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	20.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	16.67	8.33	8.33	0.00	33.33	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	16.67	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.22	11.11	0.00	11.11	22.22	11.11	22.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	14.29
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	66.67	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	27.27	18.18	18.18	9.09	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SD--Selective default. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 49  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings Original-To-Last Transition Matrix
(%)
From/to	Total	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	D
AAA	25	44.00	16.00	12.00	8.00	4.00	4.00	0.00	0.00	8.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	33.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
AA	7	0.00	0.00	42.86	28.57	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00
A+	6	0.00	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	18.18	0.00	18.18	9.09	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09
BBB+	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BBB	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	42.86	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29
BB+	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	25.00	12.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	22.22	11.11	33.33	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	11.11
BB-	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
B+	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	15.79	15.79	21.05	15.79	5.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26
B	15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.67	40.00	13.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
B-	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	0.00	27.27	9.09	0.00	9.09	0.00	36.36
CCC+	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
CCC	3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33
CCC-	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
Original-to-last transition rates compare the issuer credit ratings from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. NR--Not rated. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 50

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Middle East And Africa (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	1.58	2.78	4.00	4.75	5.61	6.58	7.69	8.98	10.51	12.35	14.63	16.68	16.68	16.68	16.68
CCC/CC	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67	12.67
Investment grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Speculative grade	1.45	2.29	3.14	3.65	4.21	4.82	5.51	6.27	7.12	8.08	9.17	10.10	10.10	10.10	10.10
All rated	0.86	1.36	1.85	2.14	2.45	2.80	3.18	3.59	4.06	4.58	5.17	5.67	5.67	5.67	5.67
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 51

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Latin America (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	7.07
BBB	0.00	0.67	1.62	2.66	3.82	5.13	6.63	8.36	10.35	12.66	15.31	18.31	21.59	24.55	24.55
BB	0.27	1.16	2.72	4.50	7.68	10.97	14.46	17.54	19.95	21.68	23.71	26.06	27.89	29.36	30.45
B	5.86	12.76	20.00	27.09	31.70	36.12	39.70	43.52	46.66	48.84	49.59	49.94	50.92	51.86	54.05
CCC/CC	36.10	54.22	65.87	70.08	75.69	81.30	87.45	92.01	92.01	92.01	92.01	92.01	92.01	92.01	92.01
Investment grade	0.00	0.38	0.91	1.49	2.11	2.79	3.53	4.37	5.29	6.32	7.47	8.76	10.17	11.74	13.49
Speculative grade	4.65	9.06	13.60	17.78	21.72	25.64	29.32	32.79	35.35	37.15	38.56	40.01	41.41	42.58	43.89
All rated	2.93	5.87	8.96	11.86	14.66	17.51	20.27	22.96	25.08	26.69	28.06	29.50	30.95	32.26	33.74
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 52

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Asia-Pacific (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	1.13	2.73	4.41	6.19	8.08	9.40	9.40	9.40	9.40	9.40	9.40	9.40	9.40	9.40
BB	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10
B	0.76	2.51	3.64	4.85	5.06	5.06	5.06	5.06	5.06	5.06	5.06	5.06	5.06	5.06	5.06
CCC/CC	77.23	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76	79.76
Investment grade	0.00	0.21	0.51	0.81	1.13	1.46	1.69	1.69	1.69	1.69	1.69	1.69	1.69	1.69	1.69
Speculative grade	2.07	3.06	3.62	4.22	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.32	4.32
All rated	0.72	1.19	1.58	1.98	2.23	2.45	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.60
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 53

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Central And Eastern Europe And The CIS (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.34	1.18	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40	2.46	4.02	5.79	6.43	6.43	6.43	6.43	6.43
B	0.21	0.69	2.20	3.84	5.63	6.57	7.44	7.97	7.97	7.97	9.95	13.13	16.53	19.19	19.19
CCC/CC	44.74	65.79	65.79	65.79	65.79	81.58	81.58	81.58	81.58	81.58	81.58	81.58	81.58	81.58	81.58
Investment grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Speculative grade	0.97	2.00	2.69	3.29	3.94	4.64	5.41	6.25	7.17	8.22	9.39	10.71	12.15	13.32	13.32
All rated	0.45	0.92	1.23	1.50	1.78	2.08	2.41	2.76	3.14	3.55	4.01	4.52	5.08	5.54	5.54
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. CIS--Commonwealth of Independent States. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 54

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Eurozone (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.47
A	0.00	0.07	1.77	3.71	5.76	7.93	10.16	12.46	14.88	17.48	20.30	23.38	25.51	27.47	28.76
BBB	0.00	1.02	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28	3.40	6.23	9.07
BB	3.07	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70	9.70
B	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30	3.30
CCC/CC	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85	71.85
Investment grade	0.00	0.14	0.54	0.94	1.36	1.80	2.25	2.71	3.20	3.70	4.23	4.78	5.37	5.98	6.63
Speculative grade	8.69	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05	13.05
All rated	0.45	0.81	1.18	1.57	1.97	2.39	2.83	3.28	3.76	4.25	4.77	5.31	5.88	6.48	7.12
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 55

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Emerging Markets (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	1.32
BBB	0.00	0.55	1.32	2.14	3.02	3.97	4.83	5.40	6.02	6.70	7.43	8.22	9.06	9.80	9.80
BB	0.44	1.44	2.49	3.36	4.92	6.54	8.28	10.10	11.72	13.03	14.26	15.55	16.58	17.42	18.04
B	2.96	6.95	11.23	15.38	18.36	20.95	23.29	25.20	26.69	27.85	28.69	29.60	30.98	32.23	33.41
CCC/CC	54.43	69.93	75.57	76.44	76.44	80.80	84.12	84.12	84.12	84.12	84.12	84.12	84.12	84.12	84.12
Investment grade	0.00	0.26	0.61	0.99	1.39	1.81	2.19	2.43	2.70	2.98	3.29	3.63	3.99	4.38	4.82
Speculative grade	3.22	6.02	8.66	11.02	13.16	15.31	17.35	19.15	20.66	21.86	22.88	23.98	25.09	26.04	26.81
All rated	1.77	3.43	5.04	6.50	7.86	9.23	10.54	11.65	12.61	13.41	14.12	14.87	15.64	16.33	16.94
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Emerging markets and other sovereigns

In last year's study, the emerging markets region was defined narrowly as the following 20 sovereigns: Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey. In this year's study, we've broadened the emerging markets region to include the 69 sovereigns listed in table 22. To provide consistency with last year's study, we've also included a foreign currency cumulative average default rate table for the narrow list of 20 emerging market sovereigns.

Table 56

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Emerging Markets (20 Sovereigns) (1975-2019)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.45	1.09	1.75	2.45	3.19	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.71
BB	0.55	2.08	3.03	3.81	4.63	5.47	6.33	7.23	7.46	7.46	7.46	7.46	7.46	7.46	7.46
B	3.21	7.82	11.76	14.84	16.52	18.05	19.65	21.35	23.15	23.31	23.31	23.31	23.31	23.31	23.31
CCC/CC	64.80	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90	65.90
Investment grade	0.00	0.29	0.70	1.13	1.58	2.06	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40
Speculative grade	3.64	6.26	8.23	9.79	10.88	11.93	13.01	14.14	14.87	14.93	14.93	14.93	14.93	14.93	14.93
All rated	1.67	3.04	4.18	5.15	5.90	6.65	7.35	7.91	8.28	8.30	8.30	8.30	8.30	8.30	8.30
Based on the observed default rates of 20 emerging market sovereigns. Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available (no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 57

Ratings On Other Sovereigns, Including The U.S., The U.K., And Canada, As Of Dec. 31, 2019
Country	Foreign currency ratings	Local currency ratings
U.S.	AA+/Stable/A-1+	AA+/Stable/A-1+
U.K.	AA/Stable/A-1+	AA/Stable/A-1+
Canada	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Denmark	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Norway	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Sweden	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Switzerland	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Iceland	A/Stable/A-1	A/Stable/A-1
Liechtenstein	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Andorra	BBB/Positive/A-2	BBB/Positive/A-2
Benin	B+/Stable/B	B+/Stable/B
Guernsey	AA-/Negative/A-1+	AA-/Negative/A-1+
Jersey	AA-/Negative/A-1+	AA-/Negative/A-1+
St. Helena	BBB-/Stable/A-3	BBB-/Stable/A-3
Note: The sovereign ratings on Isle of Man, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, and Seychelles were withdrawn. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Related Publications

Related Criteria

• Sovereign Rating Methodology, Dec. 18, 2017

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Ratings Performance Analytics:	Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York (1) 212-438-1698; nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
	Evan M Gunter, New York (1) 212-438-6412; evan.gunter@spglobal.com
Research Contributors:	Abhik Debnath, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai
	Lyndon Fernandes, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai