The following list ranks the North American non-utility merchant and contracted power companies that S&P Global Ratings rates, from strongest to weakest.
We rank companies, in turn, by the rating, outlook, stand-alone credit profile (SACP), business and financial risk profiles, and liquidity assessment. Investment-grade companies are ranked by business risk profile, then financial risk profile. Speculative-grade companies are ordered by financial risk profile, then business risk profile. Companies are then listed in alphabetical order, if not distinguished by these factors.
We rank project finance entities, in turn, by rating, outlook, operations phase business assessment (OPBA), preliminary SACP, downside mapping, liquidity, comparable rating assessment, debt structure, and transaction structure. Projects are ordered by rating and outlook and then listed in alphabetical order, if not distinguished by these factors.
In line with our corporate, project finance, and project developer rating methodology, the final rating might differ from the SACP, where government, group, or rating above the sovereign considerations apply. Where the SACP differs from the anchor, we have applied one or more modifiers. We've noted the anchor and active modifiers of each company for informational purposes only. Please refer to the company-specific pages on RatingsDirect via the hyperlinks below.
Given our low industry risk assessment for the power sector, country risk has no material impact on the corporate industry and country risk assessment or final OPBA because the rated companies are based in jurisdictions where we assess country risk as very low.
For our related analysis, please refer to the commentaries listed under Related Research at the end of this article.
Ranking Tables
We publicly rate 26 merchant power projects. All are speculative grade ('BB+' and below), with four projects rated in the 'CCC' or 'CC' category.
Table 1
Merchant Power Project Financings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Issuer | Sector | Rating | Outlook | OPBA | Preliminary SACP | Downside mapping | Liquidity | CRA | Debt structure | Transaction structure | Analyst | |||||||||||||
Elwood Energy LLC |
Merchant | BB+ | Positive | 8 | bbb- | bbb (No Impact) | Neutral | Negative | Neutral | Neutral | Bernhardsdottir, Sunneva | |||||||||||||
Carroll County Energy LLC |
Merchant | BB | Stable | 9 | bb | bbb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Iyer, Karthik | |||||||||||||
CPV Shore Holdings LLC |
Merchant | BB | Stable | 10 | b+ | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Positive | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Iyer, Karthik | |||||||||||||
Edgewater Generation LLC |
Merchant | BB | Stable | 10 | bb | bbb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Mok S, Tony | |||||||||||||
Frontera Generation Holdings LLC |
Merchant | BB | Negative | 9 | bb- | bbb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Positive | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Yarborough E, Kimberly | |||||||||||||
Astoria Energy LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 10 | bb- | bbb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Mok S, Tony | |||||||||||||
Compass Power Generation LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 8 | b+ | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Positive | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | -1 Notch | Weisvein, Diego | |||||||||||||
Eastern Power LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 6 | b+ | bb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Positive | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Yarborough E, Kimberly | |||||||||||||
EFS Cogen Holdings I LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 10 | b+ | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Weisvein, Diego | |||||||||||||
Helix Gen Funding LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Negative | 10 | b+ | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Yarborough E, Kimberly | |||||||||||||
Lightstone Holdco LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 9 | b+ | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Yarborough E, Kimberly | |||||||||||||
LMBE-MC Holdco II LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 10 | b+ | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Weisvein, Diego | |||||||||||||
Oregon Clean Energy LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 10 | bb- | bb (No Impact) | Neutral | Positive | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Bernhardsdottir, Sunneva | |||||||||||||
Panda Stonewall LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 10 | b+ | bb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Starrett, Jason | |||||||||||||
Revere Power LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 10 | b+ | bb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Positive | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Starrett, Jason | |||||||||||||
St. Joseph Energy Center LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 9 | b+ | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Weisvein, Diego | |||||||||||||
West Deptford Energy Holding LLC |
Merchant | BB- | Stable | 10 | bb- | bbb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Banks R, Jacqueline | |||||||||||||
Heritage Power LLC |
Merchant | B+ | Stable | 10 | b+ | b (No Impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Pastrich, Michael | |||||||||||||
Kestrel Acquisition LLC |
Merchant | B+ | Stable | 10 | b+ | bb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Starrett, Jason | |||||||||||||
Lonestar II Generation Holding LLC |
Merchant | B+ | Stable | 11 | b+ | b (No Impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Shvetsov, Alexander | |||||||||||||
Nautilus Power LLC |
Merchant | B+ | Stable | 7 | b+ | b (No Impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Weisvein, Diego | |||||||||||||
Panda Hummel Station LLC |
Merchant | B | Negative | 10 | b- | b (No Impact) | Less than adequate | Positive | Neutral | Neutral | Shvetsov, Alexander | |||||||||||||
Panda Liberty LLC |
Merchant | CCC | Developing | CCC Criteria | ccc | -- | Less than adequate | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Mok S, Tony | |||||||||||||
Panda Patriot LLC |
Merchant | CCC | Developing | CCC Criteria | ccc | -- | Less than adequate | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Mok S, Tony | |||||||||||||
Chief Power Finance LLC |
Merchant | CCC | Negative | CCC Criteria | ccc | -- | Less than adequate | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Starrett, Jason | |||||||||||||
Longview Power LLC |
Merchant | CC | Negative | CCC Criteria | ccc- | -- | Less than adequate | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Starrett, Jason | |||||||||||||
*We do not subtract a notch for material reliance on a cash flow sweep for projects with a preliminary SACP in the 'b' category. CRA--Comparable ratings assessment. |
We publicly rate 29 contracted or partially contracted power projects, of which 59% are investment grade ('BBB-' and above) and the remaining 41% speculative grade ('BB+' and below). Four projects are rated in the 'CCC' category.
Table 2
Contracted Power Project Financings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Issuer | Sector | Rating | Outlook | OPBA | Preliminary SACP | Downside mapping | Liquidity | CRA | Debt structure | Transaction structure | Analyst | |||||||||||||
Indiantown Cogeneration L.P. |
Contracted | A | Stable | 8 | a- | aa (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Bettinelli L, Antonio | |||||||||||||
Kiowa Power Partners LLC |
Contracted | A- | Positive | 5 | bbb+ | a (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Feder, Benjamin | |||||||||||||
CSolar IV South LLC |
Contracted | BBB+ | Stable | 3 | bbb | a (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Li, Quansheng | |||||||||||||
Mackinaw Power LLC |
Contracted | BBB+ | Stable | 4 | a- | aa (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Orange Cogen Funding Corp. |
Contracted | BBB+ | Stable | 8 | a- | aa (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Counterparty ‘BBB+’ cap | Feder, Benjamin | |||||||||||||
Tenaska Georgia Partners L.P. |
Contracted | BBB+ | Stable | 4 | a- | a (No impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Counterparty ‘BBB+’ cap | Feder, Benjamin | |||||||||||||
UMH Energy Partnership |
Contracted | BBB+ | Negative | 4 | a- | a (No impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Bernhardsdottir, Sunneva | |||||||||||||
Chambers Cogeneration Ltd. Partnership |
Contracted | BBB | Stable | 5 | bbb | aa (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | -1 notch | Feder, Benjamin | |||||||||||||
Continental Wind LLC |
Contracted | BBB | Stable | 5 | bbb- | b (No impact) | Neutral | Positive | Neutral | Neutral | Feder, Benjamin | |||||||||||||
Solar Star Funding LLC |
Contracted | BBB | Stable | 3 | bbb+ | a (+1 notch) | Neutral | Negative | Neutral | Counterparty ‘BBB’ cap | Bettinelli L, Antonio | |||||||||||||
Tenaska Alabama II Partners L.P. |
Contracted | BBB | Stable | 5 | bb+ | a (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Arora, Anubhav | |||||||||||||
Tenaska Virginia Partners L.P. |
Contracted | BBB | Stable | 5 | bbb- | a (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Arora, Anubhav | |||||||||||||
Yellowstone Energy LP |
Contracted | BBB | Stable | 8 | bb+ | a (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Alta Wind Holdings LLC |
Contracted | BBB- | Stable | 6 | bbb- | bbb (No impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Logan Generating Company, L.P. |
Contracted | BBB- | Stable | 5 | bbb- | a (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Back-ended Debt Structure (-1 notch) | -1 notch | Lum, David | |||||||||||||
Tenaska Gateway Partners Ltd. |
Contracted | BBB- | Stable | 5 | bb | a (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Feder, Benjamin | |||||||||||||
Lea Power Partners LLC |
Contracted | BBB- | Negative | 5 | bb | bbb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Positive | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Midland Cogeneration Venture L.P. |
Contracted | BB+ | Negative | 5 | bb | bbb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Invenergy Thermal Operating I LLC |
Partially contracted | BB | Stable | 8 | bbb | bbb (No impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-2 notches) | -1 Notch | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
WG Partners Acquisition LLC |
Partially contracted | BB | Stable | 6 | bb- | bbb (+1 notch) | Neutral | Neutral | Material reliance on cash flow sweep (-1 notch) | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Recurve Energy Asset Management (StarWest Generation LLC) |
Partially contracted | BB- | Stable | 10 | b | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
EIF Channelview Cogeneration LLC |
Partially contracted | B+ | Stable | 10 | b- | bbb (+2 notches) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Southeast PowerGen LLC |
Partially contracted | B | Stable | 10 | b | b (No impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Green Country Energy LLC |
Contracted | B | Negative | 5 | b- | b (No impact) | Less than Adequate | Positive | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Borger Energy Associates L.P./Borger Funding Corp. |
Contracted | B- | Stable | 7 | b- | b (No impact) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Crockett Cogeneration, A California L.P. |
Contracted | CCC+ | Developing | CCC Criteria | ccc+ | -- | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Panoche Energy Center LLC |
Contracted | CCC+ | Developing | CCC Criteria | ccc+ | -- | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Kovacic, Boyan | |||||||||||||
Topaz Solar Farms LLC |
Contracted | CCC+ | Developing | CCC Criteria | ccc+ | -- | Neutral | Negative | Neutral | Neutral | Bettinelli L, Antonio | |||||||||||||
Sandy Creek Energy Associates L.P. |
Partially contracted | CCC | Negative | CCC Criteria | ccc | -- | Less than adequate | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Starrett, Jason | |||||||||||||
*We do not subtract a notch for material reliance on a cash flow sweep for projects with a preliminary SACP in the 'b' category. CRA--Comparable ratings assessment. |
With respect to project financings, the debt structure adjustment affects 19 companies across both the merchant and contracted sectors (35%). This adjustment affects merchant power projects (61% of the merchant portfolio) to a greater degree than the contracted projects (10% of the contracted portfolio). Group ownership is not relevant because we assess most projects as de-linked from sponsors. Transaction structure has a negative impact in about 4% of projects (two out of 55).
We publicly rate 15 corporate merchant power companies, of which 27% are investment grade ('BBB-' and above) and the remaining 73% speculative grade ('BB+' and below).
Table 3
Corporate Power Companies | ||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Issuer | FC LT | Outlook | SACP | Business risk | Financial risk | Liquidity | Anchor | Modifiers | Analyst | |||||||||||
Exelon Generation Co. LLC |
BBB+ | Stable | bbb | Satisfactory | Intermediate | Adequate | bbb | GRM: +1 | Prabhu, CFA, FRM, Aneesh | |||||||||||
PSEG Power LLC |
BBB+ | Stable | bbb | Satisfactory | Intermediate | Adequate | bbb | GRM: +1 | Pastrich, Michael | |||||||||||
Bruce Power L.P. |
BBB | Negative | bbb | Satisfactory | Significant | Adequate | bbb- | CRA: Positive | Gosselin, Viviane | |||||||||||
Capital Power Corp. |
BBB- | Stable | bbb- | Strong | Aggressive | Adequate | bb+ | CRA: Positive | Gosselin, Viviane | |||||||||||
TransAlta Corp. |
BB+ | Stable | bb+ | Satisfactory | Aggressive | Adequate | bb | CRA: Positive | Gosselin, Viviane | |||||||||||
NRG Energy Inc. |
BB | Positive | bb | Fair | Significant | Adequate | bb | Prabhu, CFA, FRM, Aneesh | ||||||||||||
Vistra Energy Corp. |
BB | Positive | bb | Fair | Significant | Adequate | bb | Prabhu, CFA, FRM, Aneesh | ||||||||||||
NSG Holdings LLC |
BB | Stable | bb | Satisfactory | Aggressive | Adequate | bb | Bernhardsdottir, Sunneva | ||||||||||||
Atlantic Power Corp. |
BB- | Stable | bb- | Fair | Aggressive | Adequate | bb- | Iyer, Karthik | ||||||||||||
Covanta Holding Corp. |
B+ | Stable | b+ | Satisfactory | Highly leveraged | Adequate | b+ | Starrett, Jason | ||||||||||||
Granite Generation LLC |
B+ | Stable | b+ | Weak | Aggressive | Adequate | b+ | Mok, Tony | ||||||||||||
Calpine Corp. |
B+ | Positive | b+ | Fair | Highly leveraged | Adequate | b | CRA: Positive | Prabhu, CFA, FRM, Aneesh | |||||||||||
Granite Acquisition Inc. |
B+ | Positive | b+ | Fair | Highly leveraged | Less than adequate | b | CRA: Positive | Weisvein, Diego | |||||||||||
Talen Energy Supply LLC |
B | Negative | b | Fair | Highly leveraged | Adequate | b | Yarborough E, Kimberly | ||||||||||||
Terra-Gen Finance Co. LLC |
B- | Negative | b- | Vulnerable | Highly leveraged | Adequate | b- | Iyer, Karthik | ||||||||||||
Source: S&P Global Ratings. FC LT--Foreign currency long term. CRA--Comparable ratings assessment. GRM--Group rating methodology. |
We publicly rate 11 contracted or partially contracted project developers, of which 27% are investment grade ('BBB-' and above) and the remaining 73% speculative grade ('BB+' and below).
Table 4
Project Developers | ||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Issuer | FC LT | Outlook | SACP | Business risk | Financial risk | Liquidity | Anchor | Modifiers | Analyst | |||||||||||
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. |
BBB+ | Stable | bbb | Satisfactory | Significant | Strong | bbb- | CRA: Positive, GRM: +1 | Bernhardsdottir, Sunneva | |||||||||||
Northland Power Inc. |
BBB | Stable | bbb | Satisfactory | Intermediate | Adequate | bbb | Ali, CFA, Luqman | ||||||||||||
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. |
BBB- | Negative | bbb- | Satisfactory | Significant | Adequate | bbb- | Ali, CFA, Luqman | ||||||||||||
The AES Corp. |
BB+ | Positive | bb+ | Satisfactory | Significant | Adequate | bb+ | Mok S, Tony | ||||||||||||
Atlantica Yield PLC |
BB | Positive | bb | Satisfactory | Significant | Adequate | bb+ | CRA: negative | Yarborough E, Kimberly | |||||||||||
NextEra Energy Partners L.P. |
BB | Stable | bb | Satisfactory | Aggressive | Adequate | bb | Yarborough E, Kimberly | ||||||||||||
Clearway Energy Inc. |
BB | Negative | bb | Satisfactory | Aggressive | Adequate | bb | Pastrich, Michael | ||||||||||||
Pattern Energy Operations L.P. |
BB- | Stable | bb- | Fair | Aggressive | Adequate | bb- | Iyer, Karthik | ||||||||||||
TerraForm Global Inc. |
BB- | Stable | b+ | Fair | Aggressive | Adequate | bb- | CRA: negative | Ali, CFA, Luqman | |||||||||||
TerraForm Power Inc. |
BB- | Stable | b+ | Fair | Highly leveraged | Adequate | b | CRA: positive | Ali, CFA, Luqman | |||||||||||
ExGen Renewables IV LLC |
B | Developing | b | Fair | Highly leveraged | Adequate | b | Financial policy: positive (+1 notch); CRA:negative | Yarborough E, Kimberly | |||||||||||
Source: S&P Global Ratings. FC LT--Foreign currency long term. |
The table and charts in this publication provide an overview of the 81 entities we rate in this industry. We rate 24 as investment grade ('BBB-' and above) and 57 as speculative grade ('BB+' and below).
Chart 1
Outlook and CreditWatch distribution
Our rating outlooks within the sector are mostly stable. Our ratings are underpinned by our base case assumptions, but also generally factor in some headroom for short-term volatility related to fluctuations in weather-driven power demand and the current uncertainty around the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland capacity auction.
Chart 2
Liquidity
Liquidity is adequate or neutral for 90% of our merchant and contracted power ratings. Most power projects have forward-looking debt service reserve accounts of at least six months and corporate issuers generally have ample liquidity available under revolving credit facilities. The less than adequate liquidity assessments are for those entities that have near-term maturities and are rated in the 'CCC' category.
Chart 3
Related Research
- $2.5 Billion Near-Term Maturity Wall Drags Merchant Power and All Stand-Alone Coal Ratings To 'CCC' Category, Feb. 24, 2020
- ESG Industry Report Card: Power Generation, Feb. 11, 2020
- How ESG Factors Have Begun To Influence Our Project Finance Rating Outcomes, Jan. 27 2020
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Primary Credit Analysts: | Kimberly E Yarborough, New York (1) 212-438-1089; kimberly.yarborough@spglobal.com |
Aneesh Prabhu, CFA, FRM, New York (1) 212-438-1285; aneesh.prabhu@spglobal.com | |
Research Assistants: | Kyle Thumar, New York |
Steven E Cox, New York | |
Additional Contacts: | Luqman Ali, CFA, Toronto (1) 416-507-2589; luqman.ali@spglobal.com |
Anubhav Arora, Toronto + 1 (416) 507 3219; anubhav.arora@spglobal.com | |
Sunneva Bernhardsdottir, Toronto + 416 507 3258; sunneva.b@spglobal.com | |
Antonio L Bettinelli, San Francisco (1) 415-371-5067; tony.bettinelli@spglobal.com | |
Benjamin Feder, New York + 212 438 1796; benjamin.feder@spglobal.com | |
Viviane Gosselin, Toronto + 1 (416) 507 2542; viviane.gosselin@spglobal.com | |
Karthik Iyer, New York (1) 212-438-1800; karthik.iyer@spglobal.com | |
Boyan Kovacic, San Francisco + 1 (415) 371 5082; boyan.kovacic@spglobal.com | |
Quansheng Li, San Francisco + 1 (415) 371 5088; quansheng.li@spglobal.com | |
David L Lum, San Francisco + 1 (415) 371 5013; david.lum@spglobal.com | |
Tony S Mok, New York + 1 (212) 438 0113; tony.mok@spglobal.com | |
Michael Pastrich, New York + 1 (212) 438 0604; michael.pastrich@spglobal.com | |
Alexander Shvetsov, New York + 1 212-438-1339; alexander.shvetsov@spglobal.com | |
Jason Starrett, New York (1) 212-438-2127; jason.starrett@spglobal.com | |
Diego Weisvein, New York (1) 212-438-0523; diego.weisvein@spglobal.com |
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