More than 15 million initial jobless claims over three weeks beginning in the middle of March, representing about 9% of the country's labor force, have raised the U.S. unemployment rate to levels that many economists believe already easily surpass the 2007-2009 recession.

The job losses crystallize the devastating economic distress caused by the coronavirus pandemic that will weigh on bank loan portfolios as business borrowers shut down and struggle through an uncertain future, and as workers in formerly secure positions start to miss payments. The unemployment rate has historically had a clear, direct impact on credit performance, with credit card portfolios being particularly sensitive.

Bank credit costs are widely expected to jump in the coming periods even as massive amounts of federal aid limit the damage and optimistic forecasts anticipate a quick recovery once measures to contain the spread of the virus are relaxed.

Even though the outbreak has been heavily concentrated in the Northeast, and particularly in New York City, the job losses have been widespread. Initial claims since the middle of March represent more than 10% of the labor force in more than 20 states, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. In Hawaii, Michigan, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania and Nevada, they represent more than 15% of the labor force.

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The ratios for some rural states and for some states where blanket stay-at-home orders are not in place or were only issued recently are relatively low. But they could grow quickly in states like Florida and Texas, where initial claims so far represent about 5% of the workforce and statewide directives were announced in early April.

The figures are also likely to grow as applicants push through overwhelmed state bureaucracies that have struggled to process claims, and as federal relief legislation extends eligibility for unemployment benefits to independent contractors and the self-employed.

Economists at BofA Global Research forecast that initial claims would remain at about 6.5 million for the week ended April 11, and that as many as 20 million people would lose their jobs between April and May in total. "Many states are shifting workers and resources to help process significant backlogs," the economists wrote in an April 10 note. "Moreover, increased eligibility for self-employed and gig workers can sustain the strong uptrend in filings."

Economists at Wells Fargo, who have forecast that the unemployment rate will exceed 15% by June, said they "would not be surprised to see several more weeks of initial claims in the millions."

"The magnitude and the speed at which layoffs are occurring are simply unprecedented," they wrote in an April 9 note.

Despite the pressure, equity analysts say that some banks are well positioned to navigate a deterioration in credit conditions.

In a note on March 31, Keefe Bruyette & Woods upgraded its rating on Independent Bank Corp. to "outperform" from "market perform" after a steep drop in the company's stock brought its trading price to below tangible book value. The analysts said that Independent Bank retooled its underwriting and risk management after the 2007-2009 recession, creating a conservative credit culture that makes it "well suited to handle potential credit headwinds this go around."

All 69 of Independent Bank's branches are located in Michigan. The bank accounts for 1.69% of total deposits in the state, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.