Businesses in the restaurant industry have struggled to stay afloat through the coronavirus pandemic, and for a time many were under government orders to close. But M&A activity in the sector is expected to rise as "pent-up demand is being unleashed now," said Ashleigh Evans, director of operations analytics at research firm Aaron Allen & Associates LLC.
"A year and a half's worth of investment is going to get pushed through in a six- to nine-month period, starting now," Evans explained, adding that "there is more capital chasing deals than there are deals to be found," which drives valuations at a higher rate faster than inflation, resulting in investors seeking non-traditional places to source deals.
Private equity dines in
Two notable transactions that were announced year-to-date are the sale of Leon Restaurants Ltd. by Active Partners Investments LLP and Spice Private Equity (Bermuda) Ltd. to Euro Garages Ltd. at a price of $138.2 million and the sale of General Oyster Inc. by Tryfunds Investment Co. Ltd. and Tryfunds Investment Fund LP to Nexta Co. Ltd. for $8.5 million.
Other significant announced deals were the acquisition of a minority stake in Itsu Ltd. by Bridgepoint Advisers Ltd.; and the sale of the stakes in Polish dietary catering services company Maczfit Foods Sp. z o.o. by its founder and CEO Maciej Lubiak and Resource Partners Sp. z o.o. to Polish convenience store owner and operator Zabka Polska sp. z o.o.
Prominent transactions that were completed in 2021 consist of Levine Leichtman Capital Partners LLC's divestment of gourmet bakery chain Nothing Bundt Cakes to Roark Capital Management LLC and the acquisition of quick-service restaurant franchisor Shipley Do-nuts by a Peak Rock Capital LLC affiliate.
On the other hand, Harvest Partners LP unit Harvest Partners SCF LP -backed OTG Management Inc., a U.S. airport concession and restaurant operator, is exploring a sale, a merger with a blank-check company and other strategic options with private equity funds and strategic buyers. Platinum Equity Advisors LLC opted out of its offer to buy Marston's PLC after the British restaurant and pub operator rejected its 105 pence-per-share bid, saying that it undervalued the company.
Stay-at-home orders and restrictions imposed by governments to curb the spread of COVID-19 pushed private equity-backed restaurants to their limits, resulting in several bankruptcies in 2020.
These include NRD Capital Management LLC-backed casual dining chain Ruby Tuesday Inc.; Golden Gate Capital-backed restaurant chain California Pizza Kitchen Inc.; Livingbridge EP LLP-backed restaurant chain Le Bistrot Pierre Ltd.; Eldridge Industries LLC-backed NPC Restaurant Holdings LLC, or NPC International, which operates Pizza Hut and Wendy's restaurants; and Apollo Global Management Inc.-backed CEC Entertainment Inc., operator of Chuck E. Cheese and Peter Piper Pizza restaurants, which has recently emerged from bankruptcy.
In addition to that, BC Hospitality Group Inc., which owns the vegan restaurant chain By Chloe, chose a consortium that includes Bain Capital LP as the stalking horse bidder to buy the company's assets out of bankruptcy on March 10.
Although quick-service and fast-casual companies have largely recuperated to pre-pandemic revenue levels, full-service companies are still lagging behind, said Erik Herrmann, a partner and head of the restaurant investment group at CapitalSpring. Many independent restaurants have also closed up shop, diminishing competition for large chains.
The bulk of transactions in the sector year to June 28 were mostly venture capital investments totaling 55 deals with a combined $874.5 million raised.
Asia-Pacific had the most funding rounds with 20 transactions, followed by the U.S. and Canada with 15 transactions. However, the latter raised the highest capital with $294.3 million, followed by the former with $250.1 million.
Europe obtained the third spot in terms of funding rounds with 14 transactions that raised a total of $127.2 million, a figure that was overtaken by the Latin America and Caribbean region, which received $180.0 million in fresh capital.
Post-pandemic forecast
The global restaurant and mobile food service markets will likely grow to $2.6 trillion by 2027 from $2.1 trillion in 2020 at a CAGR of 3%, according to an April report from Global Industry Analysts Inc.
The U.S. market is projected to be about $565.6 billion in 2020, while China is expected to reach a market size of $522.2 billion by 2027 at a CAGR of 5.4%. Japan and Canada are each estimated to grow at 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively, over the analysis period 2020 to 2027, while Germany will likely expand at approximately 1.4% CAGR.