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New York's plans to electrify buildings take shape in climate council meetings

Stakeholder feedback on building decarbonization recommendations offered a glimpse into how New York's Climate Action Council will incorporate the roadmap into a holistic plan to meet the state's climate goal.

The recommendations developed by the council's Energy Efficiency and Housing Advisory Panel, issued in May, would overhaul energy use in New York homes and businesses. They map out electrification mandates for new construction and existing buildings in the coming decades and signal the start of a phased retirement of the natural gas distribution system.

The council will use recommendations from seven advisory panels to draft an overarching plan to achieve New York's target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 85% from 1990 levels by 2050. The plan will inform state regulations in the coming years.

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Environmental justice and pace of emissions reductions in focus

The recommendations mostly got support from the Climate Justice Working Group, a nine-member panel that represents environmental justice communities. However, the working group criticized the housing panel for not stressing the state's policy of limiting energy costs to 6% of household income and said the panel could do more to ensure a just transition.

"We know that this transition is inevitable, but justice is not," working group member and PUSH Buffalo Executive Director Rahwa Ghirmatzion said during a June 28 meeting. "So how do we ensure the people that have been historically and currently underrepresented actually are represented and investments go there first?"

Ghirmatzion said the state should front-load regulatory actions and investments in disadvantaged and working-class communities to avoid leaving them behind. In setting timelines to sunset fossil fuel-powered appliances and systems, policymakers should craft workforce training and rate designs tailored for low- and moderate-income households and historically redlined communities, Ghirmatzion added.

Paul Shepson, dean of Stony Brook University's School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, commended the housing panel's analysis during the panel's presentation to the Climate Action Council on May 10. However, Shepson worried that the recommendations would not achieve New York's interim 2030 goal of reducing emissions by 40% from 1990 levels.

Regulatory signals drive much of the anticipated emissions reductions, and most panel members felt they could not accelerate those signals much beyond the recommendations that they ultimately filed, Janet Joseph, a housing panel member and vice president for strategy and market development at the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, said. "By and large, our sense was you need several years for a regulatory signal to take hold, so that was one of the constraining factors around 2030 and how hard we could push," Joseph added.

The panel also considered the time needed to build up the workforce and to allow fossil fuel appliances and equipment to reach the end of their useful life, Joseph said. The council likely needs to consider greater public incentives for electric alternatives if it wants to accelerate the stock turnover and drive down emissions more aggressively. Retrofitting existing buildings will be one of New York's biggest challenges in meeting its goals, Joseph added.

Concerns around technology and costs

Gavin Donohue, president and CEO of power generation and markets trade group Independent Power Producers of New York Inc., asked about gaps in technology. Joseph noted that electric heat pumps are widely used in Montreal and Northern Europe, and equipment manufacturers are directing research and development to serve the U.S. Northeast. The bigger challenge is matching heat pumps to building types and training installers, though Joseph said New York can drive cost reductions through scale and certainty provided by regulatory signals.

Donahue expressed disappointment that the panel submitted the recommendations without including analysis on consumer costs linked to electrification. Panel members countered that they did consider a range of costs and strategies to drive down expenses over time. While converting from fuel oil to electric could pay back consumers in roughly six to nine years, Joseph acknowledged natural gas conversions presented "a bigger nut to crack."

"With the current price structure of natural gas, it's hard to make the case around economics for this transition," Joseph said.

New York State Energy Research and Development Authority senior adviser Vanessa Ulmer noted that New York can already build all-electric with no incremental costs in some cases, but the problem lies in retrofitting existing buildings, particularly those with high maintenance and electrical wiring needs. There is also considerable uncertainty about the cost of electrifying multifamily buildings, Ulmer added.

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corp. President Donna DeCarolis pressed panel members on whether they considered reports that advocate a more diversified approach that includes more hybrid heating and less overall electrification.

Joseph said the recommendations put forward reflect the panel's focus on "the big prizes ... where we could achieve the majority of greenhouse gas reductions." The panel does not expect New York to achieve 100% building electrification, but it anticipates something on the order of 85% of the state's buildings will be all-electric, Joseph added.

Asked by Donahue about the role of lower-carbon fuels, Joseph said the panel debated biofuels and renewable natural gas but did not reach a consensus on their role in the building transition. The panel considered that they could be used in hard-to-electrify buildings, Joseph said, but noted that the council would need to deliberate on the matter, and the issue would ultimately be worked out in the regulatory process.