The US is unlikely to halt tariff policies on China following the November presidential elections, though the country's approach to critical minerals duties are likely to differ substantially between the potential Republican and Democratic administrations.

US President Joe Biden directed the US Trade Representative to raise Section 301 tariffs on $18 billion worth of Chinese products in May. Changes included a 100% tariff on electric vehicles, along with a 25% tariff on lithium-ion batteries used for EVs, natural graphite and a host of other critical minerals including cobalt. Lithium was not included.

Former President Donald Trump has been vocal in his support for strict, sweeping tariffs on goods from China and duties on all imported goods, whereas Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration's current and more targeted approach to energy transition supply chains.

"We'll see what [Trump] ultimately does, but my expectation is that tariffs on a number of products, particularly from China, would go up under a Trump presidency," said Kelly Ann Shaw, partner at law firm Hogan Lovells and former deputy assistant to the president for international economic affairs and deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Trump administration.

A potential Harris administration, meanwhile, is likely to approach the tariff question with the view of furthering climate goals through targeted duties.

"I could imagine the Harris administration would be much more willing to target that tariff structure as a way to say we're doing this to facilitate meeting Paris Accord numbers and facilitating the energy transition in a way the Trump administration may be more hesitant to do," said Scot Anderson, Denver office managing partner and energy and natural resources metals and mining subsector co-head at law firm Womble Bond Dickinson.

Only up from here

While Harris is likely to maintain the Biden administration's tariffs if elected, Trump has indicated that an incoming Republican administration would raise tariffs on all goods coming from China.

Trump has called for a 60% or higher tariff on goods from China and a 10% tariff on all other US imports. "It may be more than that [or] it may be a derivative of that," Trump said in interviews with TIME in April.

Tariffs under a potential Trump administration are likely to be more sweeping than the Biden administration's recent targeted approach. This is in part because a future Trump administration would not want to appear to be encouraging the critical minerals-consuming EV sector, which Trump and his vice presidential pick, JD Vance, have previously denounced.

"I would guess [tariffs under Trump] would probably be fairly broad rather than specifically on critical minerals, in part because of the politics of critical minerals from the Trump perspective," Anderson said. "If you're really trying to focus in on protecting production of lithium and cobalt and nickel, you say, 'Well, that's to protect, or to facilitate, the production of more EVs,' and that's not a policy goal of the Trump administration. So it makes sense politically to do kind of a broad tariff."

China was the largest nation of origin for US imports of natural graphite and EV batteries between 2022 and 2024, with more than half of all US quarterly imports of both products coming from China during the period, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence Global Trade Analytics Suite data.

While Harris does not appear to have taken a position on the Section 301 tariffs and has not said much about tariffs on the campaign trail, the vice president is generally expected to carry forward the torch of the current administration's critical minerals tariff policy.

"My expectation is that things will carry on more or less as usual," Anderson said. "They'll still use tariffs as one of the tools to try to shift the balance away from the dominance of China on both production and refining of critical minerals and try to push some more production domestically."

Harris has been supportive of the Biden administration's landmark climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes incentives for the domestication and "friendshoring" of critical minerals supply chains. Ongoing geopolitical tensions with China could also open the door for Harris to do more to encourage US mineral production.

"My guess is that, in terms of trade announcements, we've seen the bulk of it already," Shaw said, speaking about the Biden-Harris administration prior to Harris' nomination as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee.

The Harris and Trump campaigns could not be reached for comment.

Boost to domestic industry

The continuation or strengthening of critical mineral tariffs could be a boon to producers seeking market certainty before scaling up their US operations.

"[Tariffs are] definitely helpful as we raise more money," Emilie Bodoin, founder, president and CEO of Massachusetts-based lithium metal company Pure Lithium Corp., told S&P Global Commodity Insights. "It's definitely helpful for investors to know that there are policy initiatives that will help make batteries happen in the United States."

The delayed phase-in period for some of the tariffs, particularly on products for which the US is heavily reliant on China, also gives producers some wiggle room to enter the market or scale up before duties go into effect, potentially constraining across-the-board price increases on products for which domestic supply is limited.

"My view is putting in a tariff on a product where there is no domestic supply, it's just a tax," Ryan Corbett, CFO of Nevada-based rare earths producer MP Materials Corp., said in May 21 company presentation. "The goal is not to make electrified products more expensive; the goal is to ensure that there's a level playing field for domestic production of electrified products. ... I think what you're seeing is the government recognizing that there is a path here now to a domestic supply chain for electrified products."

A 25% tariff on permanent magnets, which use rare earth elements, will not be implemented until 2026. The US relied on China for 72% of its rare earth compounds and metal imports between 2019 and 2022, according to the US Geological Survey.