For the first time in 15 months, US Federal Reserve officials are poised to take a break from raising interest rates.
After 10 meetings and 500-basis-points' worth of hikes, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will likely pause one of the most aggressive rate cycles in the central bank's history when it concludes its two-day meeting June 14.
Still, the potential pause is not likely to last long, with the odds of another increase in July looking strong, and, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to stress this week, rate cuts will not even be considered for quite some time.
"The Fed needs to train the market that a pause doesn't mean we're done," said Dec Mullarkey, managing director of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Management. "The Fed will make clear that they're in no rush to bring rates down."
Bets on a pause
The futures market as of June 9 had the odds of no hike at this week's Fed meeting at about 75%, with the odds of another 25-basis-point hike at 25%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which measures investor sentiment in the fed funds futures market.
The odds of the benchmark federal funds rate moving up at least another 25 basis points at the July meeting were at about 65%, and the majority of the market does not see rates below their current level before January 2024 at the earliest, according to the tool.
Powell will likely stress that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy as inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% goal.
"I don't think Powell will want to depart from prior position stating that monetary policy will remain restrictive until there is broad-based evidence that inflation is sustainably moving back toward 2%," said Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. "The Fed wants to avoid any dovish hint of forthcoming rate cuts anytime soon."
At this week's meeting, Fed officials will update their quarterly economic projections and are likely to increase their 2023 GDP growth estimate, which was at 0.4% in March, lower their unemployment projection, which was at 4.5%, and increase their inflation outlook, which was at 3.6% for "core" personal consumption expenditures that exclude food and energy prices, Daco said.
In March, Fed officials projected the federal funds rate to be 5.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. Any change to these projections could show where the Fed plans to go at future meetings.
Fresh inflation data incoming
Those projections, and even the Fed's plans for rates, could be altered by the June 13 release of the May consumer price index data, the market's preferred measure of inflation. Economists expect broad consumer prices rose 0.2% month over month in May, or 4.1% over May 2022, according to consensus forecasts compiled by Econoday. That is down from April, when prices rose 0.4% month over month and 4.9% year over year.
"If we see a shockingly strong CPI print or a change in the trend of services inflation the Fed could become more concerned and potentially dial up the hawkish rhetoric," said Callie Cox, a US investment analyst at eToro.
A strong inflation report likely will not stop Fed officials from pausing rates, but it could make debate at the meeting much more lively, said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst with OANDA.
"The CPI report might help make this a close vote as the hawks will argue they need to make sure policy is more restrictive sooner than later," Moya said.