The European Commission has reported that exports from the European Union increased by just 0.4% year over year in January. That was led by exports of food and drink, while manufactured products declined. Exports to China fell by 6.0%, which may represent the first signs of coronavirus-related disruptions, though the start of the Lunar New Year from Jan. 25 may have led to a seasonal decline anyway. Exports to the U.K. were down 9.7% in its first month outside of the EU from a statistical perspective.

In dollar terms, EU exports also declined by 0.4%, Panjiva's analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows, led by a 4.8% slide in shipments from Germany and a 7.9% slump in shipments from France. By comparison, the Netherlands saw a 12.3% improvement, but that trend may reverse given the recent slump in oil prices.

The EU's performance, meanwhile, likely meant that Europe more broadly was the second-best-performing region for exports globally in January. A sample of Middle East and African countries rose by 10.1% due to a surge in the dollar value of exports from Turkey and South Africa.

The lack of availability for China for January alone requires an estimate, though its likely total exports from Asia fell by 10.5%, dragging the global total to a 5.5% decline. Exports from the Americas, meanwhile, fell by 1.8%, including a 1.0% slip in U.S. exports.

Data for February published by 12 countries so far, as outlined in Panjiva's March 18 report, indicates that a 1.7% year-over-year slide may have occurred with more to come, as the spread of coronavirus makes itself felt.

Christopher Rogers is a senior researcher at Panjiva, which is a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. This content does not constitute investment advice, and the views and opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Links are current at the time of publication. S&P Global Market Intelligence is not responsible if those links are unavailable later.