The odds of default across most U.S. business sectors rose in the second quarter.
Every sector except financials recorded a higher median market signal one-year probability of default score at the end of the second quarter compared with the end of the first quarter, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The scores, which represent the odds of default within a year, are based primarily on the volatility of share prices for public companies in the sector and account for country- and industry-related risks.
Vulnerable sectors
The healthcare sector had the highest one-year probability of default at 7.3% as of June 30, according to Market Intelligence data. This is up from 4.6% on March 31.
Staffing shortages, a wave of canceled elective procedures, and pandemic fears stressed the healthcare sector, which has also has one of the highest numbers of bankruptcies so far in 2022.
Communication services had the second-highest median market signal at 4.9%, up from 3.2%, according to the data. Consumer discretionary was at 3.8%, up from 2.5%. This sector, which largely includes businesses that sell goods and services viewed as nonessential, was hit hard by pandemic restrictions, COVID-19 worries and rising inflation.
Troubled industries
Healthcare industries were in the top two with the highest probability of default scores in the second quarter, with healthcare facilities at 19.4% and healthcare technology at 15.69%, according to Market Intelligence. Advertising came in third at 15.29%.
Multi-line insurance, property and casualty insurance, and gas utilities were the least vulnerable industries by median market signal one-year probability of default.
Increases and decreases
Healthcare facilities had the largest increase in probability of default at 19.4% as of June 30, up from 9.3% on March 31, according to Market Intelligence data.
Advertising had the second-largest increase at 15.3%, up from 6.7%. Broadcasting was up 11.7% from 3.2%.
Interactive home entertainment, distributors, and general merchandise stores were industries with the largest decrease in probability of default as of June 30, according to the data.