China's green bond market is headed for its busiest year ever amid a national push for net-zero emissions and the growing appetite of international investors.
The issuance of Chinese green notes will reach a new high in 2021, surpassing its previous record of US$56.18 billion in 2019, analysts said. The surge is being driven by nonfinancial companies such as those in energy and consumer sectors as well as government-backed entities, which have overtaken financial institutions as the most active issuers of green securities in support of China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060.
International investors are also warming to Beijing's efforts to bring domestic securities closer to global standards for what counts as green.
"Green bonds are in demand … The trend of issuing more green bonds or green instruments will continue," said Ricco Zhang, senior director for Asia-Pacific at the International Capital Market Association, or ICMA.
The world's second-largest economy raised US$63.16 billion in green debt locally and offshore in the first nine months of 2021, after record issuance totaling US$25.06 billion in the third quarter, according to Climate Bonds Initiative.
The surge of issuance comes as China's economic growth slows and the government focuses on reducing massive corporate debt loads. The net-zero goal is high on the government's agenda and targeted policy support is likely to be in place when needed, irrespective of the economic growth rate, according to analysts.
"That means [the] economic growth rate may not be a key factor on the volume of green bond issuance," said Iris Pang, chief China economist at Dutch bank ING Groep NV.
Some issuers may consider repackaging vanilla bonds into green bonds upon maturity if they identify eligible projects, which could be an additional boost to issuance, ICMA's Zhang added.
Targeted policy push
Chinese authorities will likely roll out more policy support for green projects and their funding sources, after the central bank in July added exposure to green bonds to its routine assessment of banks' performance, analysts said.
Policy support will be crucial for the green debt market to grow as China's post-pandemic economic recovery falters while it struggles with power shortages.
"We expect low-cost funds for green financing and reasonable credit support for the power sector to continue to be provided despite [an] economic slowdown, given China's ambitious green initiative," said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategic research at China Renaissance Securities.
China may also consider allowing financial institutions to apply for funding support from the central bank after issuing green loans to companies, Pang said. "Some synergy may be seen between green bond issuances and this new policy tool," he added, without elaborating.
International interests
China's proposal to exclude fossil fuel projects from the list of eligible green projects brings the nation's green taxonomy closer to global standards, which has lured some international investors to the onshore green bond market. Most Chinese green bonds issued offshore are compliant with global green standards.
While Beijing continues to work on a green taxonomy that will be more in line with its European counterparts, about half of the country's issuance during the first three quarters of 2021 did not follow the globally agreed rule on allocation of proceeds. Companies issuing local green securities are allowed to spend up to 50% of their proceeds on repaying loans or working capital, while the international norm allows only up to 5%.
The alignment efforts are also complicated by the fact that Chinese green bonds are overseen by three regulators — The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission. They have different requirements on proceed allocation.
"Until the 'use of proceeds' issue is addressed to align with international standards, it's likely that we will continue to see the non-aligned portion grow," said Christina Ng, research and stakeholder engagement leader for fixed income at the Institute for Energy Economic and Financial Analysis.
The government is also working on a transition taxonomy, ICMA's Zhang said, which will cover bonds that are used to finance the transition from non-green operations to green operations.
China President Xi Jinping said in September the country would no longer build coal-fired power plants abroad and would focus instead on an accelerated transition to a low-carbon economy. Although there are discussions to ban new coal plants, it is still not known whether this will be implemented before 2025, said Markus Mueller, global head of the chief investment office at Deutsche Bank International Private Bank.
"China faces two goals: energy security and economic growth," Mueller said. "This looks likely to be discussed in the upcoming COP26, which would push for a flexible agenda in meeting targets."
The U.K. is hosting the UN Climate Change Conference, or COP26, in Glasgow in early November. During the conference, major emitters are expected to firm up new and more ambitious commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change.