Achieving the Biden administration's goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions from the U.S. power sector by 2035 would force the retirement of 90% of current operating coal capacity, according to a study by consultancy firm Energy Ventures Analysis.
To meet the administration's goal, annual coal retirements will average 15 GW through 2030, before slowing to a rate below 3 GW between 2030 and 2050, said Energy Ventures Analysis manager Phillip Graeter. The impact analysis also shows that the rate of decline in U.S. coal consumption will be similar to rates recorded over the past decade.
The analysis projects coal consumption falling to less than 50 million tons by 2035, more than 90% below 2019 levels, as some coal capacity remains online after installing carbon capture and storage technology.
"Obviously, there is a limited role that coal — unfortunately as the high emitter of CO2 — can play in this decarbonized electric power sector," Graeter said March 10 during the American Coal Council's 2021 virtual meeting of the Spring Coal Forum.
While coal-fired power plant retirement announcements continue rolling in, Graeter said renewable energy capacity and storage installations would need to increase significantly to account for renewable resources' intermittency challenges.
Kyle Danish, a partner at law firm Van Ness Feldman LLP who advises clients on environmental and energy matters, told attendees the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency would likely "move as quickly as possible to propose and finalize a rule in this area."
While the administration has a range of options to approach its goal of decarbonizing the power sector, it may take a cautious approach to precisely how it crafts that rule due to potential legal challenges. That is especially true given the current, more conservative makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court and how the judges would likely approach the issue, Danish added.
"Now, the important thing to realize is that those rules could still be quite stringent and could have significant effects on coal-fired power plants," Danish said. "For example, one approach you might see is to set a standard that would require those coal-fired power plants that have access to natural gas to co-fire or convert. That would be a quite stringent rule, and arguably a little bit more consistent with the natural sort of legal authorities that EPA has under the Clean Air Act."
Utilities have reacted to Biden's 2035 goal with a mix of enthusiasm and skepticism. While a large swath of utilities has embraced plans to close coal-fired power plants and build out renewable energy, many are also insistent that natural gas remains vital to meeting the nation's electricity needs.
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