Acquiring EFG International AG may not be the most financially beneficial move for Julius Bär Gruppe AG, judging by the market reaction to speculation over a deal.
Listed Swiss private bank Julius Bär had been in preliminary discussions for EFG, but the talks have stopped, sources told Reuters in May. A few days later, financial news website Inside Paradeplatz reported that Julius Bär was close to announcing an offer of CHF15 per share for EFG, which would be valued at some €4.7 billion.
A deal could, however, lead to a lower earnings accretion benefit, analysts said. Financial accretion would be challenging, Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Goy said in a note following initial news of the discussions. Even then, EPS accretion before 2027 would only be in the low single digits, according to Citi Research.
Julius Bär shares tumbled after the Inside Paradeplatz report broke — a market reaction Citi analyst Nichols Herman said was understandable. "[In] our view deal merger math does not appear attractive," Hermann said in a June 6 note.
Julius Bär did not respond to requests for comment. An EFG spokesperson did not comment.
The two companies booked a combined assets under management net inflow of CHF17.70 billion in 2023 and a net income of roughly CHF760 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. A merged entity would hold AUM of about CHF548.58 billion based on data as of the end of 2023.
The main benefit for Julius Bär would be greater scale, and the group would gain exposure to some new countries, Deutsche Bank's Goy said.
A combined group would still be dwarfed by UBS Group AG, Julius Bär's main competitor in Switzerland. UBS, which has grown significantly after acquiring Credit Suisse Group AG, booked $128.3 billion of net new assets in 2023 and $27.4 billion in the first quarter of 2024 in its global wealth management unit. Its fee-generating assets amounted to $1.66 trillion at the end of 2023 and grew to $1.73 trillion three months later.
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KBW analysts noted how former Julius Bär COO Boris Colardi owns a 3.5% interest in EFG, and him returning in some capacity might be favorable. The KBW analysts estimated that the deal would result in a 10% potential return on investment for Julius Bär by 2027, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
Yet there are still cultural differences between the two banks, which according to Citi would exacerbate execution risks for what is already likely to be complicated integration. The timing of the deal is also questionable, analysts said.
Julius Bär is already Switzerland's fourth-largest bank, with assets of CHF96.79 billion at the end of 2023. Acquiring EFG would take its assets to CHF135.37 billion.
The group is still searching for a permanent CEO after Philipp Rickenbacher resigned in February. Rickenbacher's exit comes as the company grappled with its exposure to insolvent property group Signa.