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May 30, 2018
Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for April
Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in April following increases of similar magnitudes over the prior two months. The April increase was roughly accounted for by a jump in nonfarm inventory investment; domestic final sales and net exports were little changed in April. Within domestic final sales, increases in PCE and the portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data were essentially offset by a decline in nonresidential fixed investment. The level of GDP in April was 2.8% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 3.6% GDP growth in the second quarter are increases in Monthly GDP in May and June that average 0.2% per month.
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
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