Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for December
Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December following a robust, 0.8% increase in November. The December growth rate largely reflected strength in PCE that was partially offset by small declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports. The level of monthly GDP in December was 1.5% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter are moderate increases over January, February, and March that average about 0.1% per month (not annualized).
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
