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Power Evaluator
Machine-Learning Powered
Nodal Forecasting

Access over 40,000 machine-learning powered nodal and zonal pricing forecasts to see how differing assumptions in markets, policy and technology could impact your power plant or portfolio valuations.

Power Evaluator
Machine-Learning Powered
Nodal Forecasting

Power markets are dynamic. The acceleration of the energy transition injects significant variability and uncertainty. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind can be volatile in the short term but highly predictable as they strongly correlate with the weather. Non-homogeneous electricity prices due to different operating locations, market rules, operating models, climate change, and demand increase price volatility and can affect the accuracy of power plant valuations.

Understand how Power Evaluator delivers unique and advanced forecasting capabilities to mitigate the risk of power price fluctuations in power plant valuations.

  • Consistent LMP basis forecasts across an entire power market:

    Unlike typical nodal engineering dispatch models that lack the data to produce a consistent LMP basis forecast, Power Evaluator is deeply rooted in historical relationships and a set of key drivers to produce reliable forecasts across the entire US power market.

  • Bringing all nodal prices to customers’ fingertips

    Avoid costly fees on disparate nodal datasets or consultancy services. Gain full access to our nodal forecasts for the entire US power market to value projects and power plants alongside zonal fundamentals, and asset data within the Power Evaluator.

  • LMP basis forecasts are aligned with S&P Global comprehensive power market outlook

    The zonal prices to which the LMP basis forecasts are referenced and the drivers of future LMP basis are consistent with S&P Global proprietary forecasts.

  • Stochastic modeling is the future of power price forecasting

    Randomness and chaos will always be present in markets. Our modeling simulates spikes predicated on the historical probability of freezes, heat waves, and outages to provide more accurate energy forecast prices and mitigate price volatility.

Capabilities of our machine-learning-powered nodal forecasts

40k+

Nodal forecasts

90%

Average model confidence score

4

Machine learning models

5

Layers of stochastic draws

  • Mixed model approach

    Power Evaluator selects the best forecast from four models that layer machine learning and advanced statistics on top of S&P Global fundamentals forecasts.

  • Dynamic model selection:

    Our algorithm chooses the most accurate forecasting tool using a twelve-month validation period which is then used to retrain the best model.

  • Training period optimization

    Our data accuracy is optimized by intelligently scrapping outdated or unrepresentative historical data for training.

  • Stochastic outlier generation:

    We accurately replicate and generate outage behaviors and unusual pricing events using five layers of stochastic draws.

Forecasting Analytics for Nodal and Energy Storage

  • Nodal LMP Forecasts
  • Nodal Storage Value Forecasts
  • Nodal Temporal Arbitrage Forecasts

Instantly access dependable and consistent nodal forecasts generated through a rigorous analysis of historical performance.

  • 40k+ LMP and Basis forecasts
  • Historical ISO hourly pricing trained against 5 covariates
    • Solar generation
    • Wind generation
    • Hydroelectric generation
    • Demand
    • Settlement pricing
  • Stochastic model layer for replicating and reinjecting anomalous outage pricing behavior into the time series
  • Immediate historical comparison between forecasts and reported nodal pricing

Maximize storage value by determining the best location, length of time, cycling schedule, and roundtrip efficiency

  • Adjustable storage cycle time, roundtrip efficiency, depth of discharge, discount rate, and degradation
  • Determine viability of long-duration storage
  • Evaluate the potential need for capacity revenue streams
  • Understand the diminishing returns of incremental duration hours

Conduct simulations and back-testing to identify and capitalize on arbitrage opportunities at over 40,000 pricing locations.

Plan and visualize your strategy with our sophisticated hex-mapping system integrated with comprehensive metrics

  • Adjustable duration, cycle time, depth of discharge, and roundtrip efficiency
  • Understand the optimal battery characteristics to maximize arbitrage at any site
  • Compare projected arbitrage opportunity to past performance

  • Nodal LMP Forecasts
  • Nodal Storage Value Forecasts
  • Nodal Temporal Arbitrage Forecasts

See Power Evaluator in Action

Request a Power Evaluator Demo

How you can use our nodal forecasts

  • Battery Storage Developer

    A battery storage developer needs to assess to profitability of prospective project sites. Power Evaluator can source for the battery arbitrage margins at many sites in North America. By applying the temporal arbitrage and storage value forecasts, the optimal value locations can be screened instantly and help the developer understand the historical pricing relationships at each site, to evaluate profitability.

  • Wind Developer

    A wind developer is looking for a suitable site to build a series of turbines in West Texas. As part of the early scoping process, the developer needs to rank the potential land lease agreements. The Power Evaluator provides evaluations of nodes and interconnection points for numerous potential sites and assesses the LMP basis risk relative to the traded hubs where the contracts would settle for each site, to pinpoint the best spot for new turbines.

  • Private Equity Analyst

    A senior analyst at a private equity firm wants to acquire assets in the power industry that are likely to be the most profitable. Power Evaluator can perform evaluations on multiple power plants using our proprietary power plant data, LMP basis forecast, and basis variation statistics for the node quickly.

  • Renewable Portfolio Owner

    A renewables portfolio owner identifies an opportunity to acquire a power project acquisition and needs to assess its risk. The Power Evaluator can assess the merchant tail risk of the target and provide a quick view of both zonal and nodal price movements in the distant future.

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We're proud of our recent awards!

  • Best Corporate Actions Data Initiative, 2023
  • Best Overall Sell-Side Technology Provider, 2023
  • Most Innovative Regulatory Solution (Climate Risk & Transaction Reporting), 2023
  • Best Overall Data Product or Service, 2023

And, we delight in supporting our customers with 24x7x365 customer service and a 98% customer service satisfaction rate.

If your company has a current subscription for S&P Capital IQ Pro, you can register as a new user for access to the platform(s) covered by your license at S&P Capital IQ Pro or S&P Capital IQ

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