Evolution of US generation output by fuel type, 2011-2020

Decarbonization efforts reshaped the U.S. energy production landscape in the 10 years through 2020, with the share of generation output from carbon-free sources rising 7.5 percentage points while gas dislodged coal as the top generator. Renewable generation soared, accounting for all the gains from carbon-free sources, yet comprised only 12.7% of total output as of 2020, underscoring significant room for growth amid a renewed sense of energy-transition urgency following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Solar and wind drove the gains in renewable output as biomass and geothermal stayed relatively flat. Wind generation rose 182.6% from 2011 through 2020 to reach nearly 338 million GWh, making it the fourth-largest source of U.S. energy production at the end of the 10-year period. Solar generation skyrocketed, rising more than 4,300% to become the sixth-largest source of U.S. energy production. As of 2020, however, a gap of 217 million GWh separated solar from hydroelectric, which ranked fifth on the energy production source leaderboard.

From 2011 through 2020, the U.S. added more than 82 GW in wind capacity and over 48 GW in solar capacity, based on S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Notable wind projects that began operating in the interval include Xcel Energy Inc.'s 600-MW Rush Creek Wind Farm in Colorado and Texas' 525-MW Aviator Wind Project (Grape Creek). Aviator Wind is co-owned by CMS Energy Corp., The Kansai Electric Power Co. Inc. and Ares Infrastructure and Power Group. Across the solar space, California's Topaz Solar Farm owned by Berkshire Hathaway Energy subsidiary BHE Solar LLC leads on the capacity front at 586 MW.

Adding nuclear and hydroelectric generation output to the renewables output brings the carbon-free share of U.S. energy production to 39.9% in 2020, up from 32.4% in 2011. Generation from coal — once the top source of U.S. energy production, accounting for 40.3% of the U.S. output in 2011 — fell 52.5% during the period under consideration. In pursuit of its goal to decarbonize energy production, the U.S. retired more than 90 GW of coal plant capacity from 2011 through 2020.

An estimated 33 GW of U.S. coal capacity is planned for retirement from 2022 through 2042. For perspective, the U.S. has 180 GW of planned solar capacity and 119 GW of planned wind capacity in the pipeline. The impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on fossil fuels, geopolitics and trade could boost this figure.

The data in this analysis excludes distributed, net metered and community installation generation output.

^{Regulatory Research Associates is a group within S&P Global Commodity Insights.}

^{Chris Allen Villanueva and Rameez Ali contributed to this article.}