US RENEWABLES TRACKER: ERCOT back on top in Q1 for total renewable generation output

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas returned as the top region for total renewable generation output across the US in the first quarter of 2023 and was expected to catch up to the California Independent System Operator's installed solar and storage capacity by the end of the year.

ERCOT's total wind, solar and hydro generation output averaged 406.046 GWh/day in Q1, an increase of 26% from a year ago, according to ERCOT data. The only other regions to see a year-over-year increase was CAISO, which was up 7% to 266.841 GWh/d, and the Southwest Power Pool, which increased 2% to 346.664 MWh/d.

"Going forward, ERCOT will again be the most dynamic and interesting market to watch -- owing to their market design they don't suffer the same interconnection bottlenecks that are slowing renewable growth in other regions," said Sam Huntington, a director on the North American power research team with S&P Global Commodity Insights. "So, by the end of 2023, I'd expect ERCOT to start catching up to CAISO in terms of installed solar and storage capacity."

Other regions, including the PJM Interconnection, Midcontinent ISO, SPP and the non-CAISO Western Electricity Coordinating Council, will add a lot of new renewables, especially solar, but the pace of additions will lag behind ERCOT, Huntington added.

Overall, the US added more than 7.5 GW of wind, solar and battery storage capacity in Q1 2023, according to the American Clean Power Association's Q1 report.

Click here for the full size infographic

Wind generation

ERCOT had the most wind output in Q1 at an average of 357 GWh/d, while SPP had the most wind market share, accounting for 44.3% of the total fuel mix, according to ERCOT and SPP data.

ERCOT manages the flow of electric power for about 90% of the state's electric load. SPP oversees the electric grid and wholesale power market for companies in 15 states in the central US.

Texas leads in wind capacity at 40.556 MW, followed by Iowa at 13 GW and Oklahoma at 12.5 GW, according to ACP. New York wind capacity jumped 11% from the end of 2022 to 2.43 MW by the end of Q1, the largest move for wind in Q1.

Twenty states have between 1 GW and 10 GW capacity, while 18 states have less than 1 GW, according to ACP. Nine states have no wind capacity.

Looking forward, there are 11 states with more than 500 MW of land-based wind in development, according to ACP.

ERCOT expects to reach 41.4 GW of installed wind capacity in 2024 and 42.169 GW in 2025, according to the latest Capacity Changes by Fuel Type report.

SPP has 1.6 GW of wind in its interconnection queue that have executed interconnection agreements and are on schedule to reached commercial operation in 2023, followed by 1.353 GW in 2024 and 4.47 GW in 2025.

"Offshore wind will be another sector to watch through the end of the year with multiple projects slated to come online in the Northeast," Huntington said, adding that the sector is facing significant supply chain challenges, so the progress of projects will be telling for the near-term development of the sector.

Based on the state of power delivery, New York is leading the nation with 4.23 GW in development, followed by New Jersey with 3.758 GW in development, according to the ACP. Massachusetts is in third with 3.242 GW, followed by Virginia with 2,587 MW.

Solar generation

ERCOT had the most solar output during Q1 at an average of 56.8 GWh/d, while CAISO had the biggest year-on-year jump at 49% to average 54.1 GWh/d. CAISO also led the nation in market share at nearly 13%, while all regions made gains in solar output, according to ERCOT and CAISO data.

CAISO manages the flow of electricity for about 80% of California and a small part of Nevada.

California leads in solar capacity at 17.754 GW by the end of Q1, followed by Texas with 12.538 GW and Florida with 7.127 GW, which was an increase of over 17% from the end of 2022, according to ACP. Fifteen states have over 1 GW of solar capacity, while 33 states have less than 1 GW. North Dakota and West Virginia are the only states without any solar capacity.

ERCOT is adding solar at a rapid pace, Huntington said.

Texas leads the solar pipeline with 17.316 GW in development, making up more than a fifth of the US pipeline, according to ACP. Indiana is second with 6.251 GW of utility-scale solar in development, followed by California with 6.197 GW.

Across the country, 22 states have more than a gigawatt of solar in development, according to ACP.

ERCOT expects to reach 37.26 GW of installed solar capacity in 2024 and 48.662 GW in 2025.

CAISO has 4.338 GW of solar in its interconnection queue that have executed interconnection agreements and are slated to come online this year, followed by 4.7 GW in 2024 and 2.379 GW in 2025. Nearly all of those projects have battery storage attached, totaling nearly 10 GW of storage additions possible.

SPP has nearly 300 MW of solar in its interconnection queue that have executed interconnection agreements and are on schedule to reached commercial operation in 2023, followed by 1.646 GW in 2024 and nearly 750 MW in 2025.

Battery storage

California had the most battery storage capacity at 5.034 GW by the end of Q1, followed by Texas with 2.165 GW, which was an increase of 15% from the end of 2022, according to ACP. Ten states had over 100 MW capacity, while 32 states had less than 100 MW. Eight states have no battery storage capacity.

California also leads the battery storage pipeline with 8.280 GW in development, followed by Texas with 3.545 GW in the pipeline, according to ACP.

"CAISO will add a lot of storage capacity this year and the fleet will start playing a pretty meaningful role in meeting peak demand, which has been tight in recent years," Huntington said. "These additions are driven by aggressive procurement orders coming from the [California Public Utilities Commission]."

CAISO has 4.3 GW of battery storage in its interconnection queue that have executed interconnection agreements and are slated to come online this year as the main resource, followed by 3.6 GW in 2024 and 4.9 GW in 2025.

ERCOT expects to reach 6.293 GW of installed battery storage in 2023, 13.3 GW in 2024 and nearly 17 GW in 2025.

Hydro outlook

The Bonneville Power Administrator had the most hydro output in Q1 at an average of 161.8 GWh/d, despite a drop of 32% year on year. ERCOT had the biggest gain at 145% to average 1.1 GWh/d.

BPA had the most market share at nearly 70% of the total fuel mix, despite a 9 percentage point drop. In contract, CAISO hydro market share averaged 9.2% of its fuel mix for Q1, a 3-point increase from a year ago.

"Hydro in the West will be interesting to watch in Q2/Q3," Huntington said. "The region, especially California, has a record snowpack but is also recovering from a multiyear drought."

It is unknown how much of that snowpack will be absorbed by the land or used to refill reservoirs compared to being used for power generation, he added.