US RENEWABLES TRACKER: MISO takes over lead in Q4 renewables output, wind soars

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator led the US in total renewable generation output in fourth quarter 2022, surpassing the Electric Reliability Council of Texas which had long held the top spot, as wind output soared across the country.

However, Texas continues to have the most combined renewable capacity across the US with 54.472 GW, jumping 20% year on year, according to the American Clean Power Association's Q4 report. Total US wind, solar and battery storage capacity totaled 227.4 GW by the end of Q4, up 12.4% year on year.

MISO renewable output averaged 333,012 GWh in Q4, 3.5% more than ERCOT and 4.8% higher than the Southwest Power Pool, according to MISO, ERCOT and SPP data. Despite Bonneville Power Administration's renewable output slipping 12% in Q4, it remained the footprint with the most renewable market share at 75.6% of its total fuel mix for Q4, according to BPA data.

"Above normal wind speeds in every month of the quarter along with relatively weak wind speeds in SPP in October and in ERCOT in December," Morris Greenberg, senior manager of North American power analytics with S&P Global Commodity Insights, said about what drove MISO renewable output to outpace all other regions in Q4.

However, MISO's reign isn't expected to last.

"ERCOT's larger installed base of wind and generally good wind speeds combined with rising solar capacity should give it an edge," Greenberg said.

Wind winning

Wind generation output climbed in all regions, except BPA, with ERCOT's wind jumping 28% year on year to average 274.4 GWh in Q4, according to ERCOT data.

The state of Texas has the most wind capacity in the nation at 40.16 GW, climbing 12% year on year, according to ACP data. Iowa, located in the MISO footprint, ranked second for US wind capacity at 12.764 GW in Q4, up 4% year on year.

SPP continues to have the largest market share of wind at nearly 42% for Q4, an increase of about 3 percentage points year over year, according to SPP data. Nearly every state in SPP's footprint is in the top 20 for wind capacity. Oklahoma ranked third with 12.447 GW, up 13% year on year, as Kansas ranked fourth with 8.245 GW, unchanged, according to ACP. With a 20% jump in capacity year on year, Nebraska moved up three slots to rank 12th in the US for Q4.

Total US installed wind capacity reached 144.059 GW in Q4, up 6.3% from the end of 2021, according to ACP data. Although 41 states have wind capacity, only three states have over 10 GW and 18 states have less than 1 GW. The majority of states without wind are located in the Southeast.

ERCOT, which manages the flow of electricity to about 90% of Texas, has about 37.4 GW of wind capacity and expects to reach around 41.3 GW in 2024 and 41.7 GW by 2024, according to its latest Capacity Changes by Fuel Type Chart.

SPP, which has members in 14 states, has 39.6 GW of wind capacity in its generation interconnection queue with online dates between 2023 and 2028, including 1.6 GW with interconnection agreements signed that are listed as "on schedule" with commercial operation dates in 2023.

Solar shining

Total US installed solar capacity reached 74.126 GW in Q4, up 17 % year on year, according to ACP data. California leads the nation in solar capacity at 17.61 GW, up 14% year on year, while Texas solar capacity jumped 46% to 12.445 GW in Q4. Florida moved up one slot in the rank to third with 6.079 GW, up 24% year on year.

Only two states do not have any solar capacity – North Dakota and West Virginia – while 11 states have under 100 MW and 15 state have over 1 GW, according to ACP.

Solar output increased in all regions, except ERCOT where it dropped 15% year on year to average 50.2 GWh for Q4, while ISO New England had the largest increase at 34% to average 7.2 GWh. Meanwhile, the California Independent System Operator, which managers the flow of electricity to about 80% of California, had the largest solar market share at 16.4% of its total fuel mix for Q4, up 4.4 percentage points year on year.

"ERCOT solar is expected to continue to grow rapidly topping other regions, though strong solar growth is also expected in the PJM Interconnection, MISO and California," Greenberg said.

ERCOT has about 14.8 GW of solar capacity and expects to reach around 43.210.5 GW in 2024 and 46.2 GW by 2024, according to its latest Capacity Changes by Fuel Type Chart.

CAISO has 20.3 GW of solar capacity in its generation interconnection queue, including 5.9 GW with executed interconnection agreements with online dates listed in 2023.

Storage wars

California leads the US in battery storage capacity at 4.938 GW, climbing 101% year on year, according to ACP data. Texas capacity soared 127% year on year to 1.867 GW by the end of Q4.

Although 40 states have storage capacity, only nine have more than 100 MW, according to ACP data. Total installed storage capacity reached 9.024 GW in Q4, an increase of 81% year on year.

CAISO had 4.614 GW of installed battery capacity by the end of December, a jump of 78% from a year ago, according to CAISO's December Key Statistics report. CAISO has 70.6 GW of battery capacity in its queue, including 5 GW executed interconnection agreements with online dates listed in 2023, with another 4 GW with 2024 online dates.

ERCOT has about 2.8 GW of battery capacity and expects to reach around 12.2.5 GW in 2024 and 13.4 GW by 2024, according to its latest Capacity Changes by Fuel Type Chart.