2024 US Commercial Vehicle Market: Stability and EV Growth

• Class 8: S&P Global Mobility observed a significant decline in Class 8 registrations, which dropped by 11% in 2024, totaling 231,000 registrations.
• Class 4 and 5: In contrast, Class 4 registrations increased by 7%, while Class 5 registrations rose by 9%.
• Government fleets: Government fleet registrations have surged by 50% since 2019 and increased by 20% from 2023, indicating strong investment in public sector transportation.
• Cargo vans: Cargo van registrations have decreased by 18% since 2019 and by 2% from 2023. This change follows a pandemic-driven surge of cargo van registrations, driven by the demand for last-mile delivery vehicles.
• Tractor trucks: Like cargo vans, tractor truck registrations have also experienced a decline, dropping by 14% since 2019 and 18% from 2023.
• ICE and diesel powertrain shift: Commercial ICE vehicles experienced a 7% decrease since 2019, primarily driven by reductions in pickups and cargo vans. This trend has significantly impacted the lease rental industry. The diesel segment has also contracted, with registrations down 2% since 2019, affecting both tractor trucks and straight trucks.

One of the most striking trends has been the remarkable increase in hybrid vehicles, which surged from 13,000 to 163,000 registrations from 2019 to 2024.

This hybrid growth can be attributed to:

• Vehicle types: The rise includes hybrid SUVs, passenger vans and pickups.
• Industry impact: The manufacturing and services sectors, along with rental companies, have significantly contributed to this increase in hybrids.

Similarly, electric vehicle (EV) registrations skyrocketed from 4,000 to 87,000 during the same period.

Key factors include:

• Diverse applications: various sectors are adopting EVs, including lease rental, general freight and services.
• Major players: Rental agencies like Hertz, Enterprise and Avis have invested in EVs, and pharmaceutical companies are also incorporating EVs into their fleets.

In the cargo van segment, companies like Amazon, FedEx, Verizon and Walmart are leading the charge. Rivian has emerged as a dominant player in the EV cargo van market, commanding a 66% market share in 2024.

CNG registrations have increased by 20% since 2019, with general freight, sanitation and refuse vehicles making up 80% of this growth. Notable companies such as UPS and Waste Management have been key contributors, using CNG for tractor trucks, terminal trucks and straight trucks.