IN THIS LIST

Applying Nobel Prize-Winning Volatility Research to the S&P 500

Building the Next Generation of Thematic Indices

The Market Measure: March 2025

How AI Tools Are Helping Track Thematics

The 500™: A Brief Look at an Index Icon

Applying Nobel Prize-Winning Volatility Research to the S&P 500

  • Length 3:56

In unpredictable markets, the ability to more accurately model and predict volatility may offer unique benefits when applied to indices used in insurance and structured products. Learn how the S&P 500 Engle Indices measure dynamic exposure to the S&P 500 while applying a predictive volatility control mechanism, which employs a variation of the GARCH model inspired by the research of Nobel Laureate Robert F. Engle.

[TRANSCRIPT]

Applying Nobel Prize-Winning Volatility Research to the S&P 500

In today's unpredictable markets, the ability to more accurately model and predict volatility may offer unique benefits when applied to indices used in insurance and structured products. The S&P 500 Engle VT Indices – or S&P 500 Engle Indices for short – measure dynamic exposure to the S&P 500, applying a predictive volatility control mechanism that employs a variation of the GARCH model, inspired by the research of Nobel Laureate Robert F. Engle.

Periods of high volatility often cluster together, followed by periods of relative calm. What sets the S&P 500 Engle Indices apart from other approaches is their mechanism which is designed to help predict volatility by incorporating observable historical market patterns. Taking these patterns into account allows the indices to adjust weighting based on a sophisticated model of volatility dynamics.

So how do the S&P 500 Engle Indices work? The S&P 500 Engle Indices take an innovative approach to modeling volatility by measuring it in three distinct ways, by observing: Slow-moving volatility, Time-of-day volatility, and Intraday volatility.

Slow-moving volatility: The indices use GARCH-style models with 20 years of realized volatility data to predict daily volatility from historical patterns.

Time-of-day volatility: They account for time-of-day effects where volatility levels tend to be elevated at specific times of the day.

Intraday volatility: This index component focuses on short-term fluctuations and clustering effects observed within a single trading day or from the end of one trading day into the beginning of the next.

Combined together, these measures of volatility create an enhanced model intended to help forecast future market movements. When the volatility forecast is below the target, exposure to E-mini S&P 500 index futures within the index increases, up to a leveraged position that can vary based on the volatility target. When the volatility forecast is above the target, exposure to E-mini S&P 500 index futures decreases.

S&P DJI offers several versions of the S&P 500 Engle Indices differing by return type, transaction costs, and volatility target. The indices denoted by TCA are transaction cost adjusted – they deduct transaction costs from the index value to reflect costs associated with rebalancing and replication.

Compared to traditional volatility control indices that rebalance at end of day, the intraday volatility control mechanism used in the S&P 500 Engle Indices may allow for greater intraday responsiveness and more precise targeting to the specified volatility level.

Over the course of its hypothetical history, which is based on back-tested data, the S&P 500 Engle Indices would have exhibited highly correlated performance versus the S&P 500 and competitive risk-adjusted returns in general while minimizing drawdowns in periods of market stress.

To learn more about the S&P 500 Engle Indices and to get the latest index performance data, visit us at the link below.

spglobal.com/spdji



Processing ...