NEW YORK, SEPTEMBER 26, 2023: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2023 show that 19 of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 1.0% annual change in July, up from a 0% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 0.9%, which improves from a -0.5% loss in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 0.1%, improving from a loss of -1.2% in the previous month.
Chicago, Cleveland, and New York led the way for the third consecutive month reporting the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July. Chicago remained in the top spot with a 4.4% yearover-year price increase, with Cleveland in at number two with a 4.0% increase, and New York held down the third spot with a 3.8% increase. For this month, 8 of 20 cities reported lower prices and 12 of 20 reported higher prices in the year ending July 2023 versus the year ending June 2023. 18 out of the 20 cities, show a positive trend in price acceleration compared to their prior month.
The chart on the following page compares year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for Chicago
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index,10-City and 20-City Composites, all posted a 0.6% month-over-month increase in July.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.6%, while the 10-City posted a 0.8% increase and 20-City Composite a 0.9% increase.
ANALYSIS
"U.S. home prices continued to rally in July 2023,"says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.6% in July, and now stands 1.0% above its year-ago level. Our 10- and 20-City Composites each also rose in July 2023, and likewise stand slightly above their July 2022 levels.
"We have previously noted that home prices peaked in June 2022 and fell through January of 2023, declining by 5.0% in those seven months. The increase in prices that began in January has now erased the earlier decline, so that July represents a new all-time high for the National Composite. Moreover, this recovery in home prices is broadly based. As was the case last month, 10 of the 20 cities in our sample have reached all-time high levels. In July, prices rose in all 20 cities after seasonal adjustment (and in 19 of them before adjustment).
"That said, regional differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, the Revenge of the Rust Belt continues. The three best-performing metropolitan areas in July were Chicago (+4.4%), Cleveland (+4.0%), and New York (+3.8%), repeating the ranking we saw in May and June. The bottom of the leader board reshuffled somewhat, with Las Vegas (-7.2%) and Phoenix (-6.6%) this month’s worst performers.
"All of the cities at all-time highs are in the Eastern or Central time zones, and with two exceptions (Dallas and Tampa), all of the cities not at all-time highs are in the Pacific or Mountain time zones. The Midwest (+3.2%) continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed by the Northeast (+2.3%). The West (-3.8%) and Southwest (-3.6%) remain the weakest regions.
"On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 5.3%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data. Although the market’s gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results."
SUPPORTING DATA
The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 1.0% annual increase in July 2023. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increase of 0.9% and 0.1%, respectively.
