NEW YORK, November 28, 2023: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2023 show that 15 of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual change in September, up from a 2.5% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 4.8%, up from a 3.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, up from a 2.1% increase in the previous month. Detroit surpassed Chicago, reporting the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 6.7% increase in September, followed by San Diego with a 6.5% increase. Three of the 20 cities reported lower prices in September versus a year ago.
The chart on the following page compares year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for San Diego.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index,10-City and 20-City Composites, all posted 0.3%month-over-month increases in September, while the 10-City and 20-City composites posted 0.3% and 0.2% increases, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 10-City and 20-City Composites each posted month-over-month increases of 0.7%.
ANALYSIS
"U.S. home prices continued their rally in September 2023," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.3% in September, marking eight consecutive monthly gains since prices bottomed in January 2023. The Composite now stands 3.9% above its year-ago level and 6.6% above its January level. Our 10- and 20-City Composites both rose in September, and likewise currently exceed their year-ago and January levels.
"We've commented before on the breadth of the housing market's strength, which continued to be impressive. On a seasonally adjusted basis, all 20 cities showed price increases in September; before seasonal adjustments, 15 rose. Prices in 17 of the cities are higher than they were in September 2022. Notably, the National Composite, the 10-City Composite, and 10 individual cities (Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, New York, Tampa, and Washington) stand at their alltime highs.
"On a year-over-year basis, the three best-performing metropolitan areas in September were Detroit (+6.7%), San Diego (+6.5%), and New York (+6.3%). San Diego's presence breaks the Rust Belt's recent grip on the top three positions, but the bottom three continue to have a western flavor. Year-over-year, September's worst performers were Las Vegas (-1.9%), Phoenix (-1.2%), and Portland (-0.7%). The Northeast (+5.3%) and Midwest (+5.0%) continue as the nation's strongest regions, while the West (-1.3%) remains the weakest.
"On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 6.1%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data. Although this year's increase in mortgage rates has surely suppressed the quantity of homes sold, the relative shortage of inventory for sale has been a solid support for prices. Unless higher rates or exogenous events lead to general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month's report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results."
SUPPORTING DATA
The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 3.9% annual increase in September 2023. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increase of 4.8% and 3.9%, respectively.
