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FAQ: S&P/B3 Ibovespa VIX

U.S. High Yield Index Trading: The Kinetic Chain of High Yield Liquidity

Introducing the iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Broad Index Series

Unlocking Yield: Harnessing Dividend Opportunities in China A-Shares

InsuranceTalks: Indexing Covered Calls

FAQ: S&P/B3 Ibovespa VIX

  1. What is the S&P/B3 Ibovespa VIX?  The S&P/B3 Ibovespa VIX seeks to measure the 30-day implied volatility in the Brazilian stock market.  It is a real-time index that reflects investor sentiment about the expected volatility in the Brazilian benchmark equity index, the Bovespa index (Ibovespa B3). It is the first implied volatility index designed for the domestic market and uses the same methodology framework as the widely followed Cboe Volatility Index (VIX®), which measures near-term volatility implied by S&P 500® options prices.
  2. How is the index calculated?  The S&P/B3 Ibovespa VIX is calculated throughout each trading day by averaging the weighted prices of a specific group of Ibovespa index options. The index generally uses put and call options in the two nearest-term expiration months in order to bracket a 30-day calendar period. Variances at these two different expirations are derived and are interpolated to calculate a constant 30-day variance. VIX is derived by transforming this variance into a standard deviation and multiplying by 100. Please see the methodology document for complete details regarding the calculation methodology.
  3. How does VIX indicate market sentiment?  Implied volatility typically increases when markets are turbulent and the economy is faltering. In contrast, if stock prices are rising and no dramatic changes seem probable in the near-term, VIX tends to fall or remain steady at the lower end of its range. Since VIX reaches its highest levels when the stock market is most unsettled, the media tend to refer to VIX as a “fear gauge.”

  1. What is the difference between implied and realized volatility?  Implied volatility refers to the market’s assessment of future volatility based on options prices, whereas realized volatility measures historical volatility of returns. VIX measures implied volatility, specifically 30 days in the future.
  2. What does a VIX level signify?  The index level represents an annualized volatility statistic. For example, an index level of 20 corresponds to an expectation for a standard deviation of 20% in Ibovespa returns over the next 30 days. VIX also projects the probable range of movement in the equity market above and below its current level, over the next 30 days. When implied volatility is high, the VIX level is high and the range of values is broad. When implied volatility is low, the VIX level is low and the range is narrow. Mathematically, a relatively low VIX level of 10 implies an expected range of the Ibovespa of plus/minus 2.9%. A relatively high VIX of 35 implies an expected range of the Ibovespa of plus/minus 10.1%.
  3. What is the relationship between the S&P/B3 Ibovespa VIX and the Ibovespa?  Volatility indices and their associated equity indices are typically negatively correlated—meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. Based on back-tested data from May 6, 2021, we’ve observed a negative correlation between the S&P/B3 Ibovespa VIX and the Ibovespa of -0.59. 

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U.S. High Yield Index Trading: The Kinetic Chain of High Yield Liquidity

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Nicholas Godec

Senior Director, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Private Markets

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Executive Summary

The high yield bond market is fragmented in nature and primarily trades over the counter.  Each bond carries unique credit risk, coupons, maturities, optionality and levels of liquidity.  Bilateral trades introduce counterparty risk, which investors consider in addition to the credit analysis of high yield bond issuers.

High yield indices reflect the high yield market and aid investors with price discovery.  For instance, as measured by the iBoxx® USD High Yield Developed Markets Index, we can understand that the notional size of the USD high yield bond market has grown by only 6.5% over the past five years, to approximately USD 1.4 trillion, while delivering an aggregate total return of 28.2% over the same five-year period.

U.S. High Yield Index Trading: The Kinetic Chain of High Yield Liquidity: Exhibit 1

We can also understand that, with a yield of 7.6% and a duration of 3.6 years as of Dec. 31, 2023, USD high yield bond yields are approximately 100 bps higher than the prior five-year average, while index duration is 0.2 years lower than the five-year average.  This detail helps summarize the overall market in single point figures, creating clarity from the noise.

U.S. High Yield Index Trading: The Kinetic Chain of High Yield Liquidity: Exhibit 2

High yield indices help enable understanding of these and other market characteristics because they include risk/return statistics at the index level and underlying bond level published daily, along with static data such as rating, sector and maturity breakdowns.  Bond prices fuel daily index calculations, so reliable pricing that powers high yield indices is paramount.  The Pricing Team of the S&P Global Market Intelligence division provides component pricing for the iBoxx USD Liquid High Yield Index and CDX High Yield, including end-of-day and intraday pricing.  Pricing is determined by several factors, including executed trades, dealer quotes, banks’ books of record and model inputs like issuer curves and comparable assets.  The pricing process is overseen by expert pricing analysts who cover specific markets and who review the algorithmic pricing process.

This pricing visibility informs index-tracking tradeable products, like ETFs, futures, total return swaps and swaps on credit default swap indices.  Options markets linked to such instruments provide investors with new ways to trade high yield credit volatility.  Each instrument becomes an additional source of market color for investors, which drives greater market efficiency, including for those who do not trade index-linked products.

So, high yield indices help standardize and describe the market.  At the same time, high yield index-tracking tradeable products provide high yield investors with ways to trade and invest according to these standard definitions.  Tradeable high yield index products have evolved to primarily trade within a centrally cleared framework, which mitigates counterparty risk.

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Introducing the iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Broad Index Series

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Catalina Zota

Associate Director, Fixed Income Product Management

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Introduction

Emerging market bonds are coming back into focus in 2024 due to their lower duration, higher yield and prospects of diversification when compared with those of developed markets.  The iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Broad Index Series was launched on Jan. 31, 2024.  The index series is designed to offer a comprehensive view of the USD emerging market bond universe while upholding minimum standards of investability and liquidity.  The iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Index Series is powered by S&P Global Market Intelligence’s bond pricing, an independent multisource pricing provider used by market participants to value portfolios.

Please note that throughout this paper we use the following abbreviations.

  • iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Broad Sovereign & Sub-Sovereign Investment Grade: iBoxx USD EM IG
  • iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Broad Sovereign & Sub-Sovereign High Yield: iBoxx USD EM HY
  • iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade: iBoxx USD DM IG
  • iBoxx USD Liquid High Yield: iBoxx USD DM HY

Introducing the iBoxx USD Emerging Markets Broad Index Series: Exhibit 1

As rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve appear to be ending, emerging economies are shifting back into focus and market attention is drawn to the need for better strategies that track the distinctiveness of these economies: higher inflation, higher long-term economic growth potential, the potential for political turmoil and a shifting regional focus. Hard currency emerging market debt could provide higher yields and shorter duration than developed market bonds. Starting in early 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on a journey of raising interest rates to curb inflation. In January 2022, the rate was 0.08%. Over the course of 2022 and 2023, 11 rate increases were executed, reaching a high of 5.33% in August 2023. During this same period, emerging market USD IG bonds had yields almost identical to developed market USD IG bonds—an average yield of 5.23% for bonds in the iBoxx USD EM IG versus 5.16% for bonds in the iBoxx USD DM IG. It is interesting to note that in the last five months of 2023, bond yields for the iBoxx USD DM IG and iBoxx USD EM IG remained close to the Federal Funds rate of 5.33%. In comparison, there were consistently larger gaps between the iBoxx USD EM HY and iBoxx USD DM HY, which averaged 9.95% and 7.92%, respectively, over this two-year period. The average bond yield in the iBoxx USD EM IG proved to be slightly more attractive, outperforming that of the iBoxx USD DM IG by 8 bps on average.

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Unlocking Yield: Harnessing Dividend Opportunities in China A-Shares

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Izzy Wang

Senior Analyst, Factors and Dividends

S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Jason Ye

Director, Factors and Thematics Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Introduction

In our previous study titled "Exploring China A-Share Dividends and High Yield Strategy Performance," we delved into the Chinese dividend market.  We found that historically, portfolios composed of high dividend yield stocks in China A-shares have consistently outperformed hypothetical broad market portfolios and those comprised of low dividend yield stocks.  In this paper, we aim to show how indexing methods can be employed to harness opportunities presented by high dividend yield strategies in the China A-shares market.

The Importance of Dividends

Dividends play a pivotal role in China A-shares equity investments for three reasons: 1) They constitute a substantial portion of total return in the equity market; 2) Dividend strategies can offer an alternative source of income; 3) Empirical research has shown that dividends as a factor have historically generated excess returns.

Dividend Contribution to Total Returns

While the significance of dividends in contributing to equity total return is widely acknowledged globally, particularly in the U.S. market where dividends and dividend reinvestment have accounted for over one-third of the S&P 500® total return since 1936, the situation in the China A-shares market differs.  Here, dividends contribute to almost 20% of the total returns, a notable but comparatively smaller proportion compared to the U.S. stock market.  Interestingly, despite similarities in the long-term price return between the China A-shares market, the U.S. and the global market, differences in dividend contributions play a crucial role in the variance of total returns.  This suggests significant potential for growth in dividend payments within the China A-shares market (see Exhibit 1).

Dividend Contribution to Total Return in the Equity Market: Exhibit 1

Alternative Income Strategy

Traditionally, fixed income has been the primary asset class for income-seeking investors.  However, from 2008 to 2022, we witnessed a prolonged period of declining interest rates, especially in the U.S., posing challenges for investors aiming to generate income.  In response, some market participants have turned to dividend strategies within the equity market to explore yield opportunities.  Since 2022, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, major markets like the U.S. have transitioned into a new phase of rising interest rates, with the federal funds rate exceeding 5% as of February 2024.  In contrast, China has experienced a downward trend in interest rates, making dividend strategies more relevant in the China A-shares market.  Further insights into the yield comparison will be provided in a following

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InsuranceTalks: Indexing Covered Calls

Insurance Talks is an interview series where insurance industry thinkers share their thoughts and perspectives on a variety of market trends and themes impacting indexing.

Robert Scrudato joined Global X in 2023 as an Options Research Analyst monitoring its Covered Call suite and other Risk-Managed ETFs.

Chandler Nichols joined Global X in 2021. In his current role as a Product Specialist, he works closely with the research analysts and sales team to maintain and promote client-facing research content, as well as communicate insights with clients and internal stakeholders around the globe.

S&P DJI: Why are some insurance companies implementing equity-based covered calls in their portfolios?

Chandler: “Consistency” is key, and equity-based covered call strategies may exemplify this in a meaningful way. By selling a level of upside participation in a stock or stock index in exchange for a premium, the return potential over the outcome period may be defined by the trajectory of the underlying asset and the sold option contract’s specifications. This offers the potential for a reduction in downside risk relative to owning the equity asset by itself. By mitigating potential equity downside risk through covered call writing, insurance companies may obtain a lower level of asset return dispersion than with a relatively more unpredictable set of liabilities found within a portfolio of insurance policies.

Over the past 20 years of monthly S&P 500® total returns (240 total observations), 23 of those months (9.5% of all observations) saw negative returns of 5% or lower. We believe this number is elevated relative to investor expectations, which tend to view broad U.S. index-based returns as normally distributed. For example, harvesting the volatility risk premium that is commonly found within listed equity options markets may have been particularly useful in reducing an equity portfolio’s volatility in 2022, a challenging market environment in which the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at a precipitous pace.

S&P DJI: What are the potential benefits of an index-based approach to covered call investing?

Chandler: The “rules-based predictability” of an index-based covered call strategy is meaningful to our previous point on covered call portfolio implementation. Index-based covered call strategies seek to reflect a consistent stream of hypothetical option premia that may assist in the reduction of equity return dispersion, which insurance company portfolios may seek to limit. Furthermore, these strategies contain a specified set of rules behind both the stock portfolio and the options overlay.

Passive investment strategies typically seek exposure to the underlying holdings of an equity benchmark that is well known to the investor community to which an insurance company may already have exposure within its equity holdings. Furthermore, these same covered call strategy rules typically include contract specifications such as the level of the intrinsic value of an option (“moneyness”), the time until expiration, the contract type and the process of rolling written call options. When combined, there is greater clarity as to the performance of rules-based hedged equity exposures.

S&P DJI: How are covered calls traditionally used in portfolios?

Robert: Covered calls are generally utilized in an effort to harvest option premia and create a source of current income while simultaneously seeking to provide a level of risk management. By applying such a strategy, an effective cap is placed on the price appreciation potential that may be realized through their underlying investment, depending on the strike price of the option. Although this could create a situation in which the strategy trails the performance of its reference asset or underlying index when it’s on an upward trajectory, the positive performance needs to breach the strike price of the sold call option plus any option premium income to outperform. Moreover, the premia generated may help the covered call strategy outperform in instances when the reference asset or underlying index is moving negatively. Similarly, it may also demonstrate positive performance when the underlying instrument is trending in a relatively flat or choppy pattern due to the consistent incorporation of option premia. The reinvestment potential that exists for these option premia is why a covered call strategy is often described as a total return strategy.

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